2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 20, 2019

2019 Draft

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are 2-6 weeks down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and J2 signing season.  This is NOT a space for you to continue complaining about past picks and the past/current draft philosophy.  That horse has been beaten to death in  weekly open discussions.  If you must, keep it there.

 

33 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 20, 2019”

  1. Here’s how some of the top prospects for the draft (who may actually be in play for the Phillies) fared this weekend.

    THE ARMS:

    * Nick Lodolo (#10 KLaw, #7 Fangraphs, #8 MLB.com) was excellent in a win at Texas Tech. The TCU LHP went 8 IP (106 P), 0 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K. Lodollo held Josh Jung hitless (2 FO & 1 K) in 3 AB’s. For the season, Lodolo is now 91 IP, 67 H, 19 BB, 113 K, 2.18 ERA, .202 OBA.

    * Alek Manoah (#9 KLaw, #10 Fangraphs, #10 MLB.com) had a successful final home appearance as a WVU Mountaineer. The intimidating RHP went 3.2 IP (56 P), 1 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a win vs George Washington. In 2019, Manoah is 94.1 IP, 63 H, 22 BB, 125 K, 1.91 ERA, .189 OBA. Manoah will leave WVU as the all time leader in K’s.

    Manoah was removed from Thursday’s contest early to be ready for the Big 12 conference tourney and to allow him one last standing ovation from the home crowd.

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    1. * Zack Thompson (#22 KLaw, #13 Fangraphs, #15 MLB.com) gave up a couple of HR’s, otherwise he pitched pretty well in a loss to Vanderbilt (the #2 team in the nation). The Kentucky southpaw went 6 IP (108 P), 4 R, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K. Thompson held JJ Bleday to a FO, K, and a BB. Thompson is 90 IP, 59 H, 34 BB, 130 K, 2.40 ERA, .184 OBA this season.

      * George Kirby (#24 KLaw, #15 Fangraphs, #20 MLB.com) was off this weekend. His Elon Phoenix squad takes part in the Colonial Athletic League Conference Tournament this week. Kirby is 82.2 IP, 62 H, 6 BB, 105 K, 2.07 ERA, .203 OBA in 2019.

      * Jackson Rutledge (#15 KLaw, #22 Fangraphs, #13 MLB.com) is the top JUCO pitcher available, and was mentioned as one of four players the Phillies are considering by Fangraphs. The massive (6’8″, 240 lb) flamethrowing RHP (upper 90’s T 102) has totaled 82.2 IP, 42 H, 30 BB, 134 K, 0.88 ERA.

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      1. THE BATS:

        * Josh Jung (#12 Fangraphs, #18 KLaw, #16 MLB.com) is another of the four players Fangraphs lists as a possibility for the Phillies at 1-14. The Texas Tech 3Bman ended his regular season with a thud this weekend in a series against TCU. Jung went 1 (double) for 14, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K. In 2019, he is slashing .333/.471/.597, 8 HR’s.

        * Bryson Stott (#9 Fangraphs, #13 KLaw, #9 MLB.com) was just 2 for 10, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E vs Fresno State. The UNLV SS is .361/.489/.615, 10 HR, 15 SB this season.

        * Shea Langaliers (#17 Fangraphs, #12 KLaw, #11 MLB.com) went hitless (0 for 8, 1 K) in a two game set with Oklahoma State. The Baylor C has put together a .311/.376/.484, 6 HR 2019 slash line.

        * Aaron Schunk (#46 Fangraphs, #93 MLB.com, not on KLaw’s top 50) is (as I’ve been pointing out for weeks) being completely overlooked as a guy the Phillies should be considering for 1-14. The more I watch him, the more I like/love him! Schunk ended his regular season with a very loud “BANG!” this weekend by going 6 for 15 (2 HR/1 double), 1 BB, 1 K, 6 R, 7 RBI vs Alabama. The Bulldog 3Bman is up to .343/.372/.578, 11 HR. He’s also recorded 11 saves as Georgia’s closer.

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        1. Also wanted to mention Jared Horn (whom I’ve been campaigning for the Phillies to draft on day two). The Cal RHP continues to pitch really well. Yesterday, Horn shut down Arizona State by going 9 IP (122 P), 2 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K. Horn held Hunter Bishop hitless (0 for 3, 1 BB) in that contest.

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  2. Good analysis and good work Hinkie.
    Hoping for Lodolo, but that will not happen…thn TYhompson ow hearing he also cold be gone before 14……latest fav…Gunnar, the HS ss from Alabama.

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      1. Romus as bad as we draft. I Hope they allow teams to trade draft picks. We can get most of our players from other teams. like we did this yr. Only have a triple a team for replace of injured players.

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  4. I’m just guessing here but with the draft just 2 weeks away and so far it sounds like it’s a very wild draft in terms of trying to project where players are going to go perhaps this would be a good year to try and do another move like they did with Moniak and Gowdy. In that perhaps you could get someone at 14 that perhaps would be there at say the 30’s but doesn’t cost full amount only to get someone with their 2nd round pick that might cost a bit more there. Granted they don’t have the bonus money so it could force them to get very creative in order to pull it off.

    Just a thought. Jackson Rutledge sounds really interesting although a few seem to have us interested in Gunnar Henderson so perhaps that’s where they are leaning.

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    1. Daniel…would be a good idea (14th pick-$4M)…but they have no second round pick…Harper signing incurred that.
      Next pick would then be the 91st pick.($650K)

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    2. Fangraphs (McDaniel/Longenhagen) say (in last week’s mock draft) the Phillies at 1-14 are Rutledge’s floor. So sounds like the Phillies would pick the big RHP if he makes it to them.
      McDaniel also told me Rutledge may be a slightly above slot sign for the Phillies if they take him.

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      1. That would be, IMO, a mistake…
        Rutledge, being that tall, cannot throw strikes…and he is RHP, which means it will be that much more difficult for him to repeat his mechanics and still have any form of command….right now he doesn’t even adequate control.
        And giving him $4M, whoa!

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  5. This is interesting.
    Carter Stewart will not be eligible for the draft because he’s heading east (Far East) to play professionally.

    Will be very interesting to find out when the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks will allow Stewart to be posted. This could be a new route for amateurs (from this country) to circumvent the draft and maybe make bigger money faster.
    Good luck to the kid.

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  6. Two to go until the draft. Here’s another shot at a Phillies only mock draft … mock 2.0:

    ROUND 1 (4.036 million slot)
    There’s been a lot of smoke (including Keith Law and Kiley McDaniel) about the Phillies and Gunnar Henderson. Former Phillie scout Dave Seifert (now working for Prep Baseball Report) calls it a “love affair” between the Phillies and Henderson. In his chat last week, McDaniel told me the 6’3″ Alabama HS SS would be a below slot choice for the Phillies. The reports I’ve read on Henderson have been mixed. I’ve seen “Average tools across the board” to “Reminds me a little bit of Corey Segar”. Law reports the Cardinals and Yankees (two good drafting teams) also have interest in Henderson so I’ll roll the dice on him and use the slot savings to pick/sign a high ceiling prospect later.

    ROUND 3 (647 thousand slot)
    * Bryant Packard (OFer East Carolina) is limited to a corner OF, but the bat is for real. The 6’3″, 205 lb LH hitting junior is slashing .361/.467/.568, 6 HR this season. While those numbers are very good, they’re down from the .406/.462/.671, 14 HR he posted as a sophomore. Packard also has a very good track record with a wood bat. He was .305/.421/.576, 4 HR in 59 AB’s on the Cape last summer.

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    1. ROUND 4 (478 thousand slot)
      * Garrett Stallings (RHP Tennessee) is the typical safe (more floor than ceiling) college arm Johnny Almaraz migrates towards early on day two (Cole Irvin, Connor Seabold, Colton Eastman). Stallings doesn’t have big “stuff” (Upper-80s sinker-baller who mixes in a slider and a change-up), but makes it all work enough to be one of the most successful starters in the best conference in America (SEC). This season, the 6’2″, 205 lb RHP is 92.1 IP, 95 H, 13 BB, 98 K, 3.12 ERA, .261 OBA. During his three years in college, Stallings has allowed a miniscule 1.3 BB per 9 IP, and on the Cape last summer, he totaled 21 K’s and 0 BB.

      https://twitter.com/BarstoolTenn/status/1129190144798535680

      ROUND 5 (357 thousand slot)
      * Nick Snyder (LHP WVU) is the opposite of Garrett Stallings. Snyder comes with more risk, but has a big ceiling. As I mentioned in my first Phillies mock, Snyder is a local kid (Cherokee HS in Marlton) who is living in the shadow of Alek Manoah at WVU this season. He is tall and skinny (6’7″, 220 lb “all arms and legs”) and is young for his class (won’t turn 21 until November). The WVU “lefty” (reminds me a little of Jake Diekman) is putting up eye-popping numbers this season working as a mid week starter: 55 IP, 30 H, 25 BB, 86 K, 1.95 ERA, .159 OBA. He relies mostly on a lower 90’s FB that looks like more because of his extension. He’ll have to master at least one other offering to succeed as a pro.
      SIDE NOTE: I asked Keith Law about Snyder in a chat last week. Law said Snyder is not a “draft prospect”. Not sure what he meant by that. Snyder graduated Cherokee HS in 2016, spent 2017 at Mercer County CC, and 2018 and 2019 at WVU

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      1. ROUND 6 (272 thousand slot)
        * Spencer Steer (3B/2B Oregon) has a Scott Kingery vibe about him. The 5’11”, 185 lb RH hitting infielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, but has definitely broken out in a big way in 2019 by totaling .355/.461/.515, 6 HR, 41 BB&HBP, 30 K. Steer was also very good on the Cape last summer (.304/.351/.481, 5 HR in 135 AB’s)

        ROUND 7 (213 thousand slot)
        * Hunter Cope (RHP Mater Dei HS California) is a HS RHP who could look Kyle Young in the eye. He’s 6’11”, 240 lb with a college commitment to Arizona. The 17 YO (won’t turn 18 until July) already throws 89-93 MPH with a decent breaking ball. The Phillies would use the slot savings from Gunnar Henderson to sign Cope.

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          1. ROUND 9 (154 thousand slot)
            * MD Johnson (RHP Dallas Baptist) would be a senior sign. He’s still a young (21 YO until July), projectable (6’6″, 185 lb) senior arm, and he seems to be figuring it all out in his fourth year at DBU: 87 IP, 60 H, 20 BB, 99 K.
            Side note … Johnny Almaraz has a history of drawing from the Dallas Baptist well (four picks from the school in four years).

            ROUND 10 (145 thousand slot)
            * Taylor Rashi (RHP Cal-Irvine) has converted from starter to closer as a senior (senior sign) with great success. He doesn’t throw hard (upper 80’s), but uses a funky catapult delivery to hide the ball. I mentioned numerous times Johnny Almaraz has a thing for California pitchers with low walk rates. Rashi fits the bill. The 6’4″, 215 lb right-hander is 36.2 IP, 26 H, 4 BB, 48 K, 12 SV, 1.47 ERA, .197 OBA.

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            1. ROUND 11 (125 thousand slot)

              * Jacob Wallace (RHP UConn) has been one of college baseball’s most dominant closers this season. He’s totaled 34.2 IP, 18 H, 7 BB, 52 K, 0.78 ERA, .151 OBA. Wallace is just 6’0″, 180 lbs, but throws 94-96 and possesses a plus slider. He also stands out for his high spin rate. FB ranges from 2500-2600 rpm while the slider is even a little quicker at 2700. Wallace was also an All-Star on the Cape last summer after going 13.2 IP, 0 R, 10 H, 5 BB, 25 K.

              ROUND 12 and beyond (125 thousand slot)
              all the guys I mentioned last week + this guy could be in play:

              * Ryan Ward (C/OF Bryant University) is a totally under the radar kid because he plays for a small school (Bryant Univ) in a small state (Rhode Island). However, this guy is a hitting machine who really “controls the strike zone!” The 5’11”, 205 lb red shirt sophomore has amassed two spectacular seasons in college ball:
              2018 … .409/.449/.636, 22 doubles, 5 triples, 8 HR, 21 BB, 10 K
              2019 … .392/.462/.638, 14 doubles, 2 triples, 13 HR, 31 BB&HBP, 16 K.

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    2. Yeah, you mean guys who know how to pitch….just like you and I know how to pitch😂. Be nice to have a combo of fire and finesse with upside. Command will get you to the farm, but not the Show unless you’re a very rare breed.

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  8. https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1130838944973828102

    Among the highlights:

    9. Alek Manoah
    10. Nick Lodolo
    11. Matthew Allan
    12. Shea Langeliers
    13. Bryson Stott
    14. JJ Goss
    15. Jackson Rutledge
    18. Josh Jung
    22. Zack Thompson
    24. George Kirby
    27. Logan Davidson
    41. Gunnar Henderson
    50. Ethan Small
    61. Aaron Schunk

    Law says Henderson “has some power potential and probably profiles at third base, with questions about his bat speed”.

    About Schunk (whom I would consider at 1-14) … “two-way player with a plus arm at third who has played down some this spring because he’s also pitched, and after two years of high contact rates without power (4 HR in around 400 PA), he’s come on this spring to hit 11 homers without any increase in strikeouts. He might be a low-OBP slugger who still hits for some average and plays solid defense at third”.

    Some guys who could be in play for the Phillies third round pick (#91):
    82. Isaiah Campbell, RHP, Arkansas
    85. Nick Quintana, 3B, Arizona
    88. Tommy Henry, LHP, Michigan
    95. Gabe Holt, 2B, Texas Tech
    97. Chris Newell, OF, Malvern (Pennsylvania) Prep HS
    100. Jack Kochanowicz, RHP, Harriton HS (Rosemont, Pennsylvania)

    Law doesn’t give thumbnail bios on these players, but I can tell you I’m a big fan of Campbell (92-95 FB & plus breaking ball with high K% and low BB%). Quintana was a top HS player in 2016. He has tremendous bat speed, and a strong arm. He makes some spectacular plays, but also blows the routine ones on occasion. Henry was throwing mid 90’s earlier this season, but his velo dipped (88-91) as the season wore on. Gabe Holt is an exciting little player who has hit for avg (very limited power), controls the strike zone (more BB’s than K’s), and has very good speed (54 SB in 58 attempts over the past two seasons). Holt is a red shirt soph. He has two more years of eligibility left so he won’t come cheap. Newel and Kochanowicz are a couple of local HS kids with commitments to U of Virginia. Newell is a LH hitting OFer with power, but questions about contact. Kochanowitz is a 6’6″, 220 RHP who already reaches 94 MPH.

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    1. Two locals that have some potential…Siani and Newell.
      Newell could be there at 91….Siani probably gone by then.
      Ben Davis and Phil Gosselin pulling for Newell…ahh duh, what else he is a Friar!

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  9. Good question for Eric Longenhagen by Squire (haven’t seen him on PP in a while) today:

    Squire
    What’s the best strategy for a team like the Phillies who pick mid-first round and have no 2nd round pick? Is it possible to cut a below slot deal in the mid-first round? Is it worth it when you trying to push money out all the way to the 91st pick?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    Not if you’re targetting high-profile players. If you want to spread saving around to a lot of 250-600k high schoolers (which there’s an unusually large amount of this year), then okay.

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  10. The American Athletic Conference Baseball Tournament is going on this week in Clearwater (Spectrum Field). Among the draft prospects Phillies brass will get up close looks at are:

    * Kody Hoese (3B Tulane)
    * Bryant Packard (OF East Carolina) I mentioned him as a 3rd rounder in this week’s Phillies mock earlier in this thread.
    * Spencer Brickhouse (1B/OF East Carolina)
    * Jared Triolo (3B Houston)
    * Luke Ritter (OF Wichita St senior sign)
    * Mason Feole (LHP UConn)
    * Jake Agnos (LHP East Carolina)
    * Jacob Wallace (RHP UConn)

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    1. Remember … last year, Johnny Almaraz and other Phillies execs and scouts watched Alek Bohm play in the AAC Tourney in Clearwater before drafting him.

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  11. The Perfect Game mock draft 3.0 is up.
    https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=16353

    Nothing new. The Phillies take Gunnar Henderson.
    “Henderson is an athletic prospect who’s been steadily rising throughout the spring and the Phillies have been heavily scouting Henderson. With multiple front office and directors in to see him, Henderson is likely to be in play in the teens and the Phillies are enamored with him.”

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      1. Hinkie, one guy that I’ve been intrigued by is Bretty Baty (unfortunately pronounced “bait-ee”), who from what I’ve read/watched seems to have one of the best hit/power combo tools in the class. Currently projected to go in the mid-1st round just after the Phillies. The one drawback is that he’s a little old for HS, but scouts say his approach is advanced and polished regardless. Think we could take him?

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        1. infrequent poster … first of all, you should be a more frequent poster 🙂 That said, Baty is supposed to have maybe the best power tool of all the prep bats. However, he’s more than a little old. He’s already 19-and-a-half years old. Most teams take that into account/hold it against the kid. Not sure how the Phillies feel about that. I know they really liked Blake Rutherford in 2016, and Rutherford was 19 YO on draft day. In the end, the Phillies went with Mickey Moniak (who was a year and a month younger than Rutherford). This year, Gunnar Henderson will only be 17 years and 11 months on draft day. That’s more than a year and a half younger than Baty.
          This whole Baty for the Phillies question may be moot, anyway. I’ve read the Rangers may take him at 1-8 at a big discount to later take/sign Baty’s HS teammate, Jimmy Lewis.

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  12. Mayo also mentions Kirby from Elon and Gunnar Henderson, who has been mentioned before. And, he said don’t rule out a Prep Pitcher named Allen, who I haven’t heard about. I believe they go College Pitcher.

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