37 thoughts on “Threshers Recap – 5/7/2019”

1. Colton Eastman is a prime example (among a long list) of why Johnny Almaraz is horrible at his job.

   Almaraz has stated that his philosophy with pitchers is to take pitchers who know how to pitch instead of just throw hard. That philosophy is 180 degrees wrong. Velocity is everything. All else can be taught. It is possible to increase velocity if a pitcher’s mechanics are flawed and he is not using his legs to drive. But those are the exceptions. If you look at pitchers who succeed at the mlb level it is all velocity. Power stuff. This article sums it well, “velocity is the #1 predictor of success.” https://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-mlb-shaikin-20180825-story.html

   Give me a flame thrower who doesn’t know how to pitch (at 18 or 21 years old) over a strike thrower who sits 89/91 any day of the week.

   Eastman was our 4th round pick in a draft with no 2nd or 3rd rounder. Wasted opportunity based on flawed philosophy. Which he will repeat again in this year’s draft.

   p.s. his ability to grade hit tool stinks as well.

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   1. However from the article is this train of thought of hi-velo guys vs the soft-tosser:

      “Soft contact is beautiful,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. “The guys that do have the command and pitch to soft contact have a much better chance to go deeper into the game than a guy who is grinding and making 20 pitches in an inning, because he is striking out three and walking one.”

      Said Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, citing Dr. Frank Jobe, the late Dodgers orthopedist who invented Tommy John surgery: “You’re probably right about the arm injury factor. Dr. Jobe told me a long time ago that ligament is not really made to throw 95-plus. It’s made to throw in the low 90s, probably, as kind of its max.

      ….IMO, you need the proper mix in the rotation.
      Guys like Porcello, Hendricks, Keuchel will always have a place in the rotations.

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      1. You misinterpreted that quote. Inducing soft contact does not mean you don’t throw with velocity. Having command doesn’t mean that you throw 89. These are not mutually exclusive outcomes. Great MLB pitchers (with only a few exceptions) both throw hard and have great command. Agreed that velocity alone is not enough. No one ever argues that velocity without command/control will work at the majors. That is not the point. The point is, you need both to be a great mlb pitcher. And that is the goal of a minor league system. To produce star talent. Every system in baseball produces #5 starter types. You could throw a dart at the BA draft prospect list and get #5 starters. But if you want elite pitchers then you need to draft velocity. That gives you the highest probability of success.

         The point about Tommy John is even more reason to draft more hard throwers. Because you need more chips.

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         1. If you want to see how this works, just study the Astro’s system. They draft velocity and teach how to spin it. Exceptionally deep with high end starter types.

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         2. The hi-velo guys , from what I have seen on a whole, have a lesser command skill than the low-velo guys, who inherently need the better command or else they do not make it in the majors..
            Whereas ‘inducing soft contact’ is jargon for …the sinker ball/2Smr/cut FB pitcher who will have a lower velo on those specific pitches, than the predominantly 4Smr hi-velo pitcher who racks up the strikeouts.

            Now i agree, I’d rather have the hi-velo guys with command….Verlanders, deGrom, Thors, Strasburgs, Scherzers…they are the TOR/ACE pitchers.
            But of the close to 200 pitchers who started games last year in the majors……they are the minority.
            So getting them is the most difficult acquisition.

            As for ….”The point about Tommy John is even more reason to draft more hard throwers. Because you need more chips.”
            One could say….that is the same rational Johnny A has used in the last four drafts…..keep drafting position players who have a hit tool, we have to get it right eventually..

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            1. Romus looking at Randolph he imo would hit for power with his swing. but all the others things like obp. defense. avg. i dont have a clue.

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   2. I think we’ve had long enough to get a sense of how he’s doing his job and I agree. I do not think Almaraz is doing a good job and the results have been fairly predicted by his overall philosophies. For pitchers, he’s looking for control and command. For hitters, he’s looking for a hit tool.

      As for pitchers, if you look back at the soft tossers we have taken in the first 5 or 6 rounds, basically, none of them have ever made it. So, while you have to keep command and control in mind (or the ability to develop command and control), drafting soft tossers is about the worst draft philosophy you could find. It’s like taking a punter in the second round of the NFL draft. It’s just blatantly dumb.

      (CONTINUED)

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      1. As for hitters, in the right circumstance, focusing on hit tool would be okay. But here are the problems with that. First, if you just draft on hit tool, you get picks like Cornelius Randolph – a low ceiling player with low athletic ability and no position. Unless you think he’s the next Tony Gwynn (spoiler alert – he’s not), it was the moronic pick the moment it was made. Second, and most damningly, Almaraz and his team of scouts DON’T CORRECTLY SCOUT THE HIT TOOL!!! So, basically, if you focus on the hit tool primarily, and you get that wrong, the player has little going for him.

         I’m done with this guy and I don’t understand how he still has that job. He’s not even someone Klentak brought in. Let’s move on already.

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2. What’s wrong with Kevin Gowdy?

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   1. He was drafted by the Phillies.

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   2. I don’t see him on the predicted schedule, no word on the injury front. Hopefully he is OK and it is a Tommy John pitch plan, to cool the innings. Will see, he was progressing.

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3. C Randolph!

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4. Our brightest star at the moment is Spence Howard and we haven’t a clue what is wrong with him.

   Matt Winkleman was re-visiting some draft boards from 2016 on a debate that centered around Senzel and that no one had him rated #1 BP. None of them had MM rated #1 either.

   But obviously the Reds at least had Senzel rated #2 as they took him there. I always said having the 1:1 that year was the worst place to be. Had they been allowed my guess is that the Phillies would have traded down.

   From a HS position player standpoint out of that draft if I were to re-rank it I think I would go

   Kirillof
   Kieboom
   Bichette
   Lux
   Trammell
   Dylan Carlson
   MM
   Rutherford

   And then there are some other notables from that draft who have not put it together e.g. Groome, Pint, Rutherford

   And then there is Forrest Whitley, Matt Manning

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   1. DMAR….in any draft…you win some, you lose some.
      Trout and Judge…25 and 32nd picks.
      What can you do!

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      1. Um well its a billion dollar business Romus and guys are getting paid to win more than they lose. Like a financial planner in some respects.

         If I’m owner or GM I’m asking my staff to submit a report heading into each draft. I want to know who they like and why, who they don’t like and why and I’m going to compare those notes to the industry consensus.

         I’m not sure Middleton is that cavalier to say hey you win some you lose some. I hope he isn’t.

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         1. DMAR…..bottom line is wins at the MLB level.
            If you expect the director of amateur scouting to hit a HR at every draft….well then you will be having a long line of directors coming and gong thru CBP.
            He seemingly however, has struck out with the first picks as the most glaring of his flaws….more likely 2015 and 2016, since ’17 and ’18 are too fresh to pick over yet.

            Will the owner call him out after this next draft! I do not think so.
            Though, if anyone decides to make changes…it will have to be Klentak and/or MacPhail. And that could be a real possibility.

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   2. i know one thing, KIEBOOM WAS ROMUS GUY, I remember he wanted him

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5. Another HUGE night at the dish for our 3 first round draft picks! Almarez = KILLING IT!

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   1. Referring to the Reading OF and their dynamic trio who went 2-12 last night.

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6. If the Phillies had relied upon V1’s “high velo” litmus test for drafting pitchers, they never would have drafted Aaron Nola.

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   1. I love argument by exception (sarcasm)…but Nola threw in the low 90s when he was drafted and was able to add a tick since being drafted. He was not a “soft tosser”. He also had multiple plus pitches, with plus command and was the 2x SEC pitcher of the year.

      The average 4-seam velocity during the MLB All-Star Game:
      – 2017 96.5 mph
      – 2016 94.8 mph
      – 2015 95.3 mph

      Here is the wOBA based on pitch velocity:
      • Less than 90 mph: .379
      • 90-92 mph: .365
      • 92-94 mph: .355
      • 94-96 mph: .335
      • 96-98 mph: .281
      • More than 98 mph: .270

      https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-rotations-best-fastball-velocity-2019-c303267334

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      1. Agreed. Nola was always sitting in the low 90s and touching higher – often as high as 95 or 96. Aaron Nola does a ton of stuff well and while he’s not a fireballer, neither is he a soft tosser. His game is a full combination of power, finesse, multiple moving pitches and pristine command. He’s a complete pitcher in every sense of the word.

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   2. I hate reducing it to just Velo. Yeah more is better but I’ll also take a repertoire like Nola had. Movement, command in and out, Velo variation.

      I think both points are fair before it becomes chicken vs. egg.

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      1. Nola’s Average FB Velo & ERA:

         – 2015: 91.4 & 3.59
         – 2016: 91.4 & 4.78
         – 2017: 92.6 & 3.54
         – 2018: 93.3 & 2.37

         You need both to be elite.

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      2. In with you on this. We should probably also define “velocity”. You need to be over 94 mph fastball for me. Anything between 91-94 is avg velo to me that mlb hitters can continuously feast on. Once you start hitting 95+, a pitcher can start to blow by hitters and challenge.

         All that said, to me an elite pitcher is made up of more than just velo. I think we can agree on that. It’s more rare to see an elite pitcher without velo but of course their are exceptions. Keuchel is currently trying to make that argument as a FA, but others have come before him – maddux, moyer, etc.

         To me you need to not only have velocity but movement, with command, and at least 2 plus pitches, ideally 3 or 4. Changing eye level, with different pitch speeds is critical as well. I’m watching Eickhoff as we speak. He is a good example of how one can succeed without velo. Topping out at 89mph. Checks a lot of the other boxers though

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         1. Continued

            I do think Almarez criticism is fair, and it’s gettjng to decision time for results. He has a dream draft position for a good amount of years. So far it feels like the previous regime is the one feeding the big club.

            On pitchers, I agree, go velocity first, but I would go 80/20. You need a combo in the organization.
            Imo a major league rotation of all the same type of pitchers is not as effective as a mix. For example 5 big arms all tho vs 3 RH big arms, a LH control pitcher, big curve, and avg velo mixed with someone like Eickhoffs stuff can compliment each other and give hittersndifferent looks.
            If I was to defend alamarez plan, and I’m not, I guess he is looking for control/pitcher with potential for velo either through maturity/growth or flawed mechanics.
            He is on the clock thought, hopefully we start seeing the results

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7. Jim – I’m sure that you’ve had many encounters with David Montgomery in Clearwater. Your thoughts on his passing would be appreciated. I knew that he was in poor health, but his death still hit me like a punch to the gut.

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8. Dan Duquette has an article in the Athletic listing his Top 10 CF prospects in the Minors. He has Adam Haseley 7th, and feels he will be an above average hitter, and “although he doesn’t get the recognition of some of the other high picks, he has proven he was worthy of his selection in the first round.” Rather a very positive review.

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9. The best draft picks tend to be pitchers who add velocity after being drafted. Aaron Nola, Noah Syndergaard (up to 94 his senior year in HS), etc. Spencer Howard fits into that category — when he was drafted “Howard was sitting 91-93 mph” and touching as high as 95 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-top-college-players-by-maybe-predictive-stats-14/), and now he throws considerably harder (regularly up to 98).

   Howard aside, maybe the Phillies have a problem on the player development side? Driveline, and the most Driveline-friendly team (Astros) have shown that it is possible to add velocity.

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   1. Also, deGrom was 92-94 when drafted out of college (https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4859)

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      1. DeGrom was a shortstop until his Junior year. He only had one year of college pitching. His mechanics were very raw, but the arm was elite.

         http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=145200

         He also was a 9th round pick.

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   2. If the scouts see something that makes them think that they can turn someone who sits 93 into someone who sits 97, then great.

      Point is, Howard is only a great prospect because he is now throwing so hard. He was not high on the lists before that velo increase.

      Howard is the best example of scouting in the entire Almaraz era. But still only at A ball. So jury still out.

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      1. Your original premise:
         “Colton Eastman is a prime example (among a long list) of why Johnny Almaraz is horrible at his job. Almaraz has stated that his philosophy with pitchers is to take pitchers who know how to pitch instead of just throw hard. That philosophy is 180 degrees wrong”

         ….taking guys like Nola and Howard were then exactly what their intention was.
         Guys in the low 90s, with command/control, and projecting them to increase their velo with maturity and development.
         Maybe also the reason why they decided on accepting Eshelman in the Giles trade.

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         1. Nola sat low 90s in college and reached mid-90s. Howard sat 93’ish in college. Eastman sat in the high 80s. big difference. Nola now sits 93. so he moved up a tick. that will happen with Pro development. Howard’s velo increase was an outlier.

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            1. Agreed – and with Howard, they saw a big spike in velocity in the month or so before he was drafted – hitting mid-90s – he was a developing prospect they found ahead of other teams. Almaraz has made a few good picks – Howard was one of them.

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               1. that is right..he was increasing velo right before the draft. hat tip to Almaraz on Howard. that was a good pick. but my point holds…he was a good pick because of his Velo.

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10. And this is an interesting tweet from Kyle Boddy (founder of Driveline):

    “Some projectable things:

    Cold weather pitcher (northern states), multi-sport athlete where baseball is not the kid’s primary sport, very tall, left-handedness, high spin FB and/or breaking ball, exceptionally good command for 18 years of age.”

    https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1125152168548323328

    So, perhaps great command out of high school is worth pursuing in the draft, whereas Johhny A seems to go after it out of college?

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