Threshers Recap – 4/22/2019

Clearwater (6-12) lost to Florida, 7-1.

Julian Garcia (1-2, 3.07) pitched 2 batters into the sixth inning (a game-tying HR and a single) and Gustavo Armas (10.24) came ignite the flame that would burn the Threshers in 6 batters.

Garcia ended up giving up 2 runs on 4 hits in five innings.  He walked none and struck out six.  Armas allowed an inherited runner to score and gave up 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk in 0.2 innings.  Ismael Cabrera (2.35) stranded 2 inherited runners and walked a batter in 1.1 innings.  Seth McGarry (13.50) gave up 3 runs on 5 hits in one inning.  Austin Ross (4.22) pitched a clean ninth inning.

The Threshers scored their lone run on Jake Scheiner’s sac fly in the second inning following Madison Stoles’ lead off triple..

The Threshers’ lethargic offense collected just four hits.  Two runners were thrown out stealing.

(Sorry for the brevity in this and the other recaps.  Finger’s better, but we’ve still got visitors and I’m not getting to the Recap until late … real late.)

  • #5 Spencer Howard (1-1, 3.14)
  • #11 Jhailyn Ortiz (.200) went 0-4
  • #12 Simon Muzziotti (.267) went 0-4
  • #17 Kyle Young (0-3, 5.40)
  • #18 Nick Maton (.241) went 0-2 with 2 BB 
  • #19 Rodolfo Duran (.154) went 1-4
  • #20 Daniel Brito (.143) went 0-3

Lehigh Valley (12-4) postponed.

  • #6 Enyel De Los Santos (2-0, 2.81)
  • #7 JoJo Romero (1-1, 9.00)
  • #10 Ranger Suarez (1-0, 8.00)
  • #16 Cole Irvin (1-0, 1.53)
  • #28 Edgar Garcia (0-1, 3.24)

Reading (7-7) beat Richmond, 2-1.

Adonis Medina needed 89 pitches to navigate thru five innings. He held the Flying Squirrels to one run on three hits and four walks.  But, he threw just 51 strikes (57.3%).  Aaron Brown (7.00) pitched one scoreless inning with 2 strike outs.  Jake Hernandez (1-0, 3.00) got the win with a scoreless inning.  Kyle Dohy (0.82) picked up his second save with five strike outs in two, perfect innings.

Reading scored their 2 runs in the seventh inning on Darick Hall’s solo HR (2) and Luke Wiliams’ RBI single.

Hall and Austin Listi had 2 hits each.  The team was 1-13 with RISP.

  • #2 Adonis Medina (0-0, 3.00) – 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
  • #3 Adam Haseley (.151) went 0-5
  • #9 Mickey Moniak (.212) went 1-4 and reached on catcher’s interference
  • #13 Arquimedes Gamboa (.116) went 0-3 with a HBP
  • #15 Mauricio Llovera (2.89)
  • #21 David Parkinson (1-1, 4.50)
  • #22 Kyle Dohy (2-0, 0.82) – 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
  • #25 Cornelius Randolph (.229)
  • #29 Connor Seabold – on the 7-day IL

Lakewood (5-13) beat Rome, 10-5.

Dominic Pipkin started the piggy back with three innings.  He gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks.  He threw 65 pitches, 34 strikes (52.3%).  Ethan Evanko (3.52) followed with two, one-hit innings.  Jhordany Mezquita was the second half of the piggy back and only lasted 2.2 innings.  He gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks.  He threw 53 pitches, 30 strikes (56.6%).  Tyler Carr (1.00) entered with the bases loaded, allowed an infield single, stranded 2 runners, and finished the final 1.1 innings.

Lakewood tied the game with 2 runs in the fourth inning on Malvin Matos’ solo HR (1) and Carloe De La Cruz’ RBI single.  They took the lead with 2 runs in the seventh on Alec Bohm’s 2-run HR (2).  They padded the lead with 5 runs in the eighth on Jonathan Guzman’s RBI double, a 2-run error, and Bohm’s RBI single.  And, tacked on a run in the ninth on Luis Garcia’s sac fly.

Bohm, Rafael Marchan (.265), and Matt Kroon (.296) had 3-hit games.  Garcia had 2 hits.

Alec Bohm is hitting .444 in his last ten games with 166 hits in 36 at bats, 8 runs scored, 5 doubles, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K, and 2 stolen bases in 2 attempts.

  • #1 Alec Bohm (.367) went 3-5 with a run scored, double, HR (2), 3 RBI
  • #4 Luis Garcia (.2.07) went 2-4 with a run scored, RBI, SF
  • #8 Francisco Morales (7.59)
  • #14 Rafael Marchan (.265) went 3-5 with 2 runs scored, double, RBI
  • #23 Dominic Pipkin (5.84) – 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
  • #24 Kevin Gowdy (2.79)
  • #26 Jhordany Mezquita (1-2, 9.49) – 2.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Unassigned Prospects

  • #27 Starlyn Castillo
  • #30 Manuel Silva

Williamsport begins its 2019 season on June 14th.

GCL Phillies East begins its 2019 season  on June 24th.

GCL Phillies West begins its 2019 season on June 24th.

DSL Phillies Red begins its 2019 season on June 2nd.

DSL Phillies White begins its 2019 season on June 2nd.

Here’s the affiliate scoreboard from MiLB.

The rosters and lists are up to date as of April 17th.

Today’s Transactions (newest transactions in bold text)
4/22/2019 – Phillies optioned LHP Austin Davis to Lehigh Valley
4/22/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP Edubray Ramos from Lehigh Valley
4/22/2019 – RHP Andrew Brown assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
4/22/2019 – Julian Garcia assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/22/2019 – Gregori Rivero released by Williamsport
4/20/2019 – Phillies placed SS Jean Segura on the 10-day IL retro to 4/17, hamstring
4/20/2019 – Phillies placed SS Scott Kingery on the 10-day IL, hamstring strain
4/20/2019 – Phillies placed RHP Victor Arano on the 10-day IL retro to 4/19, elbow
4/20/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP Drew Anderson from Lehigh Valley
4/20/2019 – Phillies recalled 3B Mitch Walding from Lehigh Valley
4/20/2019 – Phillies recalled LHP Austin Davis from Lehigh Valley
4/20/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated C Matt McBride from the 7-day IL
4/20/2019 – RHP Ben Brown assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/20/2019 – LF Jimmy Smith assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/19/2019 – Reading placed LF Cornelius Randolph on the 7-day injured list
4/19/2019 – LHP Jeff Singer assigned to Reading
4/19/2019 – Clearwater placed LHP Zach Warren on the 7-day injured list
4/19/2019 – 3B Dalton Guthrie assigned to Clearwater
4/19/2019 – LHP Ethan Lindow assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/19/2019 – RHP James McArthur assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/19/2019 – RHP Kevin Gowdy assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/19/2019 – Tyler Carr assigned from Williamsport to Lakewood
4/19/2019 – Alejandro Requena assigned from Clearwater to Williamsport
4/19/2019 – Kyle Young assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/18/2019 – Phillies placed CF Odubel Herrera on the 10-day IL, hamstring strain
4/18/2019 – Phillies activated CF Roman Quinn from the 10-day IL
4/18/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Tyler Viza from the 7-day IL
4/18/2019 – Luis Carrasco assigned from Clearwater to Williamsport
4/18/2019 – Seth McGarry assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/18/2019 – JD Hammer assigned from Lehigh Valley to Reading
4/17/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated 3B Gift Ngoepe from the 7-day IL
4/17/2019 – Phillies transferred Tommy Hunter from the 10-day to 60-day IL, forearm
4/17/2019 – Phillies optioned RHP Nick Pivetta to Lehigh Valley
4/17/2019 – Phillies selected the contract of 2B Phil Gosselin from Lehigh Valley
4/16/2019 – Phillies optioned RHP Drew Anderson to Lehigh Valley
4/16/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP Jerad Eickhoff from Lehigh Valley
4/16/2019 – RHP Spencer Howard assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
4/16/2019 – LHP Jhordany Mezquita assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/16/2019 – RHP Dominic Pipkin assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/16/2019 – JD Hammer assigned from Reading to Lehigh Valley
4/16/2019 – Alexis Rivero assigned from Williamsport to Reading
4/16/2019 – Julian Garcia assigned from Clearwater to Williamsport
4/16/2019 – Tyler Carr assigned from Lakewood to Williamsport
4/16/2019 – Jack Perkins assigned from Lakewood to Williamsport
4/15/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP Drew Anderson from Lehigh Valley
4/15/2019 – Phillies placed RHP David Robertson on the 10-day IL. Elbow soreness
4/15/2019 – LHP Ethan Lindow assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/15/2019 – RHP Tyler McKay assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/14/2019 – LHP Kyle Young assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
4/14/2019 – RHP Andrew Brown assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport

34 thoughts on “Threshers Recap – 4/22/2019

  1. LKW’s team hitting has risen to the middle of the SAL. They were dead last or next to last practically since the start of the season. I hate to say it but it’s probably 95% Alec Bohm. Bohm is 2nd in the league in BA. 4th in OBP and OPS. The problem’s going to come when they promote him. The rest of the team, except for Kroon, is right around .200 in BA. They’re young and they are probably eager the prove themselves but they just aren’t there right now.

    Pitching’s been worse for LKW. Last in ERA and WHIP. They’ve given up the most ERs, BBs and hits. There is a trifecta you never want to own. The team also has the most losses in the league. That’s understandable.

    I’m just giving the facts. No panic. No anger. Just the facts.

    1. Both catchers are hitting just fine. Lots of youth on that team struggling.
      Bohm’s homer was to right which really excited me to know he has that kind of power. He looks like a different player right now but it’s too soon to tell if it’s just a hot streak or if he figured things out. Great to see Garcia bounce back with two hits.
      Hall starting to heat up but Reading needs more hitting. Dohy looks legit on the nights he’s throwing strikes. He’s throwing 95 and then 78, he’s tough to hit.

      1. Speaking of the catchers it’s good to see Marchan with a few hits. He’s only struck out twice so far while walking seven times, and he’s hit some doubles. We may have something there if he keeps it up.

    1. Have to give him more time to fight his way out of this slump. Once he does, it actually could turn out to be a good thing for him. I hope new batting coaches didn’t screw up his swing….

    2. The Rome play by play guys said last night that Bohm is one of the best players in the league and that he won’t be down here long.

      I still wonder if his knee is 100% as he looks fine but wears a really small brace that he takes off after he gets on base.

      1. Phillies are trying to get Holmes, Stobbe and Bohm time at third and ABs….Holmes has been in the OF and 1st or DH and Stobbe the same and also at 2nd….Bohm they even have had him at first.
        If he keeps raking, he should be in CLW before Memorial Weekend.
        And should be able to stick at third without being shuffled around with two other players…unless they want Scheiner and Guthrie to have plenty of third base time.

  2. AA is where good hitting prospects shine. It’s quite early, but it’s hard to imagine things going much worse for these “top” hitting prospects at this point in the season. For the sake of his own survival, Johnny A. better hope that Howard and Bohm become stars.

  3. And, by the way, the one thing that Johnny was trying to identify in hitters – the hit tool – has been abysmal across virtually all levels. Honestly, given that he was an Amaro hire, it’s hard to see how he’s survived this long as his failures seem to be much more pronounced than his successes.

  4. Haseley has hit at the AA level before, I’m not too concerned. Give it another month and if he’s still struggling then we can talk about it.
    As far a Dohy, I asked Matt Wink about him last night, “Mid 90’s fastball, wipe out two plane slider, will show a usable change up, most of the time zero command and little control”.

    1. Haseley is an early disappointment because, as you say, he had success in AA last season. He’s shown he could handle the jump. Did he start the year in a bit of a mental funk because he returned to AA and did not advance to AAA?

        1. No judgement passed, just disappointed in the slow start after the quick start in AA after the promotion last year..

        2. This article uses data to suggest PAs needed by specific stat to see a stabilization of that stat: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

          tl;dr

          “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

          60 PA: Strikeout rate
          120 PA: Walk rate
          240 PA: HBP rate
          290 PA: Single rate
          1610 PA: XBH rate
          170 PA: HR rate
          910 AB: AVG
          460 PA: OBP
          320 AB: SLG
          160 AB: ISO
          80 BIP: GB rate
          80 BIP: FB rate
          600 BIP: LD rate
          50 FBs: HR per FB
          820 BIP: BABIP

          What jumps out at me is how quickly the K rate stabilizes. After only 60 Plate Appearances.

          1. v1 – Bohm is killing it right now. Is it possible that he skips Clearwater and moves directly to Reading in a few weeks? Could his defense hold him back?

            1. Why would they do that? What’s the rush? If he kills it in Clearwater, he’ll be in Reading soon enough. I never quite understand why folks want to rush prospects. Better to be safe than sorry with promotions because demoting a guy or getting him stuck at a level can have a lingering bad effect.

            2. If he were absolutely dominating, maybe. But that’s a remote possibility given his brief recent success and early struggles to start the season in Lakewood. Many wondered why he wasn’t pushed along by starting the season in Clearwater. So he might get a short stay there before ending the year with Reading. Whatever the case, I only hope he continues to produce wherever he is. That’s more important. Late or midseason 2020 could still be his major league debut without jumping him this soon.

            3. I love seeing Bohm’s bat heat up. But he is in Low A as a college draftee. He is doing what he should be doing.

              Also, I don’t see any reason to try to fast track him.

            1. That said, I would think that it is a bigger sample size needed for a player rising up a level. Personally, I put very little into the stats (good or bad) for the first half of the season for a player like Moniak rising up a level at a young age. the key to me for a prospect like Moniak is how he does in the second half of the season at AA. he gets a mulligan on the first half in my book.

            2. Interesting…of all the articles on sampling/reliability by BP and Fangraphs and even SABR and Bill James…..do not see the mention of the leveling aspect addressed.
              It could be buried somewhere in the articles and I just overlooked it.
              However, you would think as pitchers get better up the rung…..that would be an issue that should be analyzed more and built into the equation.

            3. 8mark……analytics and the associated metrics are about projection.
              I prefer to see how the player does as he goes further into his minor league career……like to see AAA/AA ball, and the metrics at that level, weighted more than say A ball or rookie ball in some type of equation.
              Which, IMO , is just logical.

          2. Stabilization is not forward looking. Stabilization is the point at which we can look back and feel that stat was measured accurately based on performance. Given that minor leaguers are in a constant state of change, thinking of anything as truly stabilizing is a useless exercise. You can look at sample sizes around known changes and think about the accuracy of statistical measures, but stabilization of stats is mostly a MLB concept, and even there it is not predictive, only measuring.

            1. In other words….as there are more PAs on a players resume…..it becomes more stable, but does not reach stabilization.

            2. There is no such thing as a “forward looking” stat. Stats by definition are backward looking. Past performance never predicts future performance. Especially for young prospects as I noted above. Imo stats for first half of season at a new level are pretty meaningless. I give young prospects a mulligan on the first half stats.

              That said, there is a very high correlation (not 1:1, but high) between k rates and walk rates in the minors and those stats in the majors. It certainly happens, but is rare for someone who strikes out a lot in the minors to not be worse in the majors. Same in reverse with walk rates.

              I would also add that K rates are not subject to luck. A player either makes contact or not. So you don’t need a massive sample size to determine if a player is overmatched for a level. Of course, prospects develop both physically and skill wise. So certainly they can and often do improve throughout a season. But imo at 100 PAs, you get a sense of where a prospect currently is against that level with regards to contact rate.

            3. There is no such thing as a “forward looking” stat. Stats by definition are backward looking. Past performance never predicts future performance. Especially for young prospects who are rising levels.

              As I noted above, I believe that stats for first half of season at a new level for a prospect are pretty meaningless. I give young prospects a mulligan on the first half stats.

              That said, there is a very high correlation (not 1:1, but high) between k rates and walk rates in the minors and those stats in the majors. It certainly happens, but is rare for someone who strikes out a lot in the minors to not be worse in the majors. Same in reverse with walk rates (low walk rates in minors typically means low walk rates in majors).

              I would also add that K rates are not subject to luck. A player either makes contact or not. So you don’t need a massive sample size to determine if a player is overmatched for a level. Of course, prospects develop both physically and skill wise. So certainly they can and often do improve throughout a season. But the point of a stat is to say, at this point in time, this player performs at this specific level. without change, he is likely to perform at the same level against the same competition. imo at 100 PAs, you get a sense of where a prospect currently is against that level with regards to contact rate. but, of course, if a skill develops, then a stat can change.

  5. On Haseley he started slow last yr. Then went hot and stayed hot. Dohy his control, command isn’t going to get much better . His stuff is great. Get him to AAA see what he can do.

  6. What a diving catch by the Rome OF to rob Garcia from a hit, he’s had some nice swings so hopefully as he gets more comfortable at the plate the hits come as I’ve seen him look at a number of strikes so far.

    Bohm just missed his 3rd HR as he hit it to the track.

    Santos seemed to struggle a bit with his command as he threw too many balls but overall was solid.

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