877 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of February 4, 2019”

1. I was wondering about what regimens or programs the Phillies have towards strength and flexibility. I remember this being a big thing some years ago with the goal of reducing soft muscle injuries as well as muscle soreness. Of course maybe now it is less of a spigot-on thing with Spring training vs. maybe a ramp-up of the 365 days training schedule but still… Anyone know?

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2. This is very well written article on how the Phillies system used technology to turn around Mickey Moniak’s season (and maybe career) last year. Tl;dr they used a technology on his bat that measures several aspects of his swing, including on plane percentage. They found that his bat was not on the pitch plane long enough. This is often caused by players trying to hit home runs rather than hit line drives. They create more of an uppercut swing, which causes issues with contact. The good news is that he made the adjustment, and started hitting line drives. The open question is how this adjustment impacts his power potential, and thus his ceiling. But it is a very good article!

   https://theathletic.com/780870/2019/01/31/data-down-on-the-farm-how-a-minor-league-information-coordinator-works-with-players-in-the-phillies-system/

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   1. Does he have to hit homeruns?……………….would you take a Rod Carew, .328 lifetime average, Hrs., 92 over 19 years, Avg less than 5 a year.

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      1. yes jim…i would absolutely take Rod Carew’s career line for Mickey. of course, as a 21 yo Rod had a stat line of .292/.341/.409 in the majors and was an all-star.

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   2. V1again,

      The good news, I believe, is that the two new hitting instructors hired from Driveline come from an environment that uses Blast Motion and Diamond Kinetics to collect and analyze swing data to help hitters understand – Attack Angle, Bat Speed, and
      Quickness.

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      1. Yes, I follow the Driveline guys on Twitter. A great feed. They definitely use a lot of technology to break down a swing.

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3. Nothing has changed. Phillies are still set to sign either BH or MM.

   Even with weeks going by and more teams checking in on the two mega star free agents — Bryce Harper and Manny Machado — the Phillies still believe they will land one of the 2 superstars. They do have financial clout. #stupidmoney

   — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 3, 2019

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   1. Meaning they have the best offer on the table for either player, or perhaps both.

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      1. But does anyone know what Harper is tweeting with “Loading…” late last evening after the less-than-Super Bowl?

         And the commercials were an all time bad, too. A Harper announcement would have easily been the best ad, even if it was for MLB The Show.

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         1. It was a Hoskins tweet from December

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4. And 19 days until we are sitting in the stands and watching baseball again. Can’t wait to hear the “crack of the bat” and watching Dylan Cozens hitting those longballs like Aaron Judge. Also his contract is a luttle lower than Harper’s this year.

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   1. Denny…..you mentioned….DC “….He is working on getting his hands higher and being more aggressive on the pitch.”….i hope that means choking up with two strikes and just as they say, choke, stroke and poke. Tell him to get video on Cubs Rizzo and Reds Votto and see what they do.

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      1. Good advice but I think all the Phillies need to follow this advice.

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5. I have said to everyone who will listen that they will sign one, of course which player that is has changed multiple times. I have also said Harper signs after NBA trade deadline because media window will be completely open for business at that time.

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6. Jim mentioned (and correctly) to watch for the beat guys to spill the news. Normally I would think so too. But with the corporate tie in with MLB The Show, this may be the exception. Not quite as theatrical as LeBron’s “decision”, it is still theatrical because Boras is involved plus social media is ten times more pervasive than it was ten years ago.

   I say it happens by tomorrow at the latest.

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   1. …I suggest this may be so also because the Phillies may have been asked to agree to seal any leaks until the official promotional announcement.

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      1. 8mark…you will be held to this prediction. 🙂

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   2. Well fellas … one of us is going to be right soon enough … mentally we should be prepared for another 2 months of this shenanigans … anything sooner will be welcomed. Honestly I could see it dragging close to the season opener, don’t think it will but won’t be surprised

      I’m hoping you’re right 8mark, it makes sense that it could happen soon. SB hype is over, and to me the MLb has always avoided the nfl spotlight when it can … and Spring training is within 10days. Now, not that is a hard deadline, but I’m sure themplayers would like to get cracking in their new facility … or for Harper, start the road to the ws with the Nats. The team dishes out the dough would like the extra hype of the signing. Either way, logic says it SHOULD happen over the next few days… but common sense ain’t so common anymore.

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7. Kimberl can’t feel to good. I’m sure part of his market needs the big guys to sign first, have teams take a final look at their rosters, and to add more of a final piece to their playoff hopes like Kimberl.

   Even still, pretty usual for a talent like Kimberl to be unsigned this late … it’s pitching … his ASK would have to drop soon imo. I’m wondering if he could be added and if it would be smart on a 3 yr deal, 4 at max. I can’t see him getting 5 at this point. It’s crickets on his asking price so far … or rather the whole offseason

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   1. Tac3……the talk is how these past two off-seasons have dragged on and on to the detriment of the players and baseball…I see one common denominator,,,,Scott Boras…the owners need to find a way to get him less involved, a more tactful way outside of collusion.

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      1. If the players need any suggestions for representation other than Boras … I know just the person (whistling) Lol basically do it all day anyway. Hmmm could be a nice career transition away from cheap penny pinching purchasing managers

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      2. I’m no fan of Boras but can’t pin the slow pace of signings over the last couple of years on him. I just think that the market is changing and the players haven’t yet come to realize it yet.

         With the end of the steroid era, players are no longer able to remain stars into the late 30’s and teams are reacting accordingly. Teams are not interested in giving long-term contracts to players that run into their mid to late 30’s anymore.

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         1. good point. on top of that, it seems to me that the long contracts of the past were being handed out with the ENTERTAINMENT industry at the forefront: get the BIG star, excite the fanbase, and put butts in those seats. Yeah, after that we hope we can, you know, win baseball games, but let’s make sure we get that sexy name first. Now, however, advanced analytics have given us a better understanding how to calculate WINS, and teams have simultaneously started to come to the seemingly-obvious conclusion that WINNING puts butts in the seats, and the sexy name doesnt necessarily lead to this outcome (think Pujols, Cano…). yes, teams of course still want these stars, of course, but i think it’s finally taking a back seat to the other avenues of building an entertaining team.

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8. I’m not worried about either of Harper and Machado. They will choose a team and I’m still optimistic (as it was since Day 1 of the offseason) that the Phillies will land one (if not both) superstar that most expect (and I predicted).

   As Jim P. mentioned, the Phillies have a lot of players and some of these players (i think both majors and minors) will have to go. While I knack Klentak for lack of creativity in flipping some of the expendable players, Klentak has been good in converting “spare parts” for IFA.

   The majors team currently stand at 39 —- preferably, I like the Phillies to sign both Harper and Machado and acquire another SP. The 40-man should not be a deterrent since the Phillies have a bunch of fungible players in the roster. If Harper is signed, one (or two) of Nick-Doobie and Altherr will probably have to go. If Machado is signed, Franco and Walding will be gone.

   The tricky part is the rotation arm since the Phillies have a stack of young arms that needs to see MLB experience and have nothing to prove in AAA anymore – Nola, Arrieta and Pivetta appears to be lock as 1-2-3 and Vinny-Eick-Eflin-Enyel will fight for the last rotation spot is a SP is acquired.

   The FA current market in the past few years appears to dictate that GMs value young and cost controlled players a lot as this them flexibility in their roster construction. This should fall into Klentak hands since Vinny-Eflin-Enyel-Franco-Nick are young and cost controlled. Klentak should be able to arrange a package of the about players for a decent arm and/or bench player and free up some roster spots for Harper and/or Machado.

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9. Vegas is still confident that Bryce is a Phillie.

   What time/day does the MLB The Show trailer drop?

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   1. I was looking that up today, looks like it’s in March 26th however that’s when the game is released, looks like the cover is out now however they will update when he signs.

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   2. I know there has been a ton of mentioning about Harper and the MLB the Show being dropped together. It just seems crazy to lump the two together.

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   3. Vegas does not “think” one way or the other. They set the line/odds based on getting an equal spread of bets across the various options. With all of the recent “news” about BH and the Phillies, Vegas likely reacted by lowering the odds for the Phillies, not because they thought he was going there, but because they feared that too many people would bet on the Phillies and therefore increase their risk of loss should BH actually go to the Phils.

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      1. Good point. Vegas odds are an example of the concept of “the wisdom of crowds”. They set and move odds based on where the money is being placed, not based on what they think will happen.

         The casino’s and betting books don’t make their money gambling, they make their money on other people gambling..

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         1. The idea that “Vegas knows” is true in the sense that they have their finger on the pulse of high rolling expert opinion, simply by watching who bets how much on what. So inside information does enter the equation.

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         2. The ‘opening line’ is based on the interpretation of a forum of informed personnel of the relevant facts, inherent to a specific sporting game or event.
            ie….players participating or not due to injury, latest trends of the team, personal conflicts et al
            Once that is set…the line will move up or down based on the money

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            1. Thank you Romus, was just about to say something similar. Vegas doesn’t set the line due to the crowd or the common person opinion, a TON goes into it. And they absolutely have insiders.

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               1. Eric…..yeah, they use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the point spread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, weather, team morale,,,believe it or not, latest trends etc. I guess some use those power ratings or some derivation of it…..they involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a point spread to set that opening line.
                  It is a science….then it is onto make sure they get half-and -half the money on either side of that last line.

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               2. Yes, they set the initial line base on the input of industry “experts” but where the line ends is determined by which side is getting the most action.

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10. When they finally do sign … I wonder if I will actually believe it. I’ll probably put if habit keep refreshing my screen looking for updates … this has been way too long of a process. I truly hope the MLB feels the pain of the wait too, and corrects it.

    It will be interesting to hear leaks about the negotiations after it’s done. Curious if the extra 3 months of waiting actually increased the overall offer and by how much? From what we know from this site, it went down and was counterproductive in terms of dollars. 9/360…. vs 10/300 …. not good for team Bryce. Even 335/10 vs 9/360 … not good. That opt out clause will be key to the deal

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11. 8mark and Troll mentioned above the tweet from Bryce Harper last night. Here it is:

    Loading…

    — Bryce Harper (@bryceharper3) February 4, 2019

    And here is the best explanation of it that I have found:

    I guess the biggest takes from this is …

    1. Harper is retweeting something Hoskins put on his Instagram account about a month ago.
    2. Harper has changed his location from Washington to USA

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    1. It just seems like Hoskins and Harper have developed a “teammate” kind of relationship.

       Bryce hugging his future teammate Rhys Hoskins pic.twitter.com/t5qlatLxZ7

       — Derek Brader (@TheRealDB35) September 10, 2018

       And … while rumors of mystery teams continue to swirl, it more seems to be opportunistic clubs sniffing around for a bargain in case the Phillies (with their stooopid money) sign Machado instead of Harper.

       According to multiple sources there are indeed “mystery” team(s) in on Bryce Harper that the public is not aware of…and as many texts/emails & phone calls I’ve made…I still can’t find them…..#Braves ? #Cardinals ? #Astros ? #Giants ? #Angels ? #Yankees ? #BlueJays ? I give up

       — Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) February 4, 2019

       Or … maybe the mystery teams are being floated by Scott Boras to squeeze a few extra dollars out of John Middleton before Harper finally puts pen to paper.

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       1. Here is the best explanation of the Harper tweet. Sorry, I forgot to place in it my post above.

          https://twitter.com/LONG_DRIVE/status/1092390178533068803

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12. Funny how all the focus now is on Bryce. Meanwhile, I wonder what Bobby Dickerson and Manny have been texting back and forth.

    Manny: “So dude, why did they hire you?”
    Bobby D: “They just told me they think highly of me as an infield coach.”
    Manny: “And my name never came up?”
    Bobby D: “No…why do you ask?”
    They both chuckle and send each other 😆

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13. According to Forbes Magazine on line article, regarding the MLB The Show impending announcement:

    “The official announcement concerning Harper’s free agent decision is supposed to be made by Sony San Diego Studios. It was part of the agreement when Harper was named the cover athlete for the game. Rumors are swirling and point to Harper electing to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies…At this point, it would be a shock if that’s not the result.

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    1. …result.” – Forbes’ full quote

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       1. Above article by Forbes contributor Brian Mazique, dated 2/2/19 at 10:17pm.

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       2. It’s also possible, according to the writer, that the announcement could be made as part of the trailer for the video game.

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          1. I’ve seen rumors that the trailer drops tomorrow. Pure speculation because of last year’s drop date for the trailer.

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    2. Thanks for contributing that, 8mark. Everything points to a Phillies lineup featuring a Harper-Hoskins duo at CBP this summer.

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14. Keith Law has released his rankings of MLB’s farm systems. He has the Phillies at #10 (he had them at #5 last year). Here are the top ten:

    1. Padres
    2. Rays
    3. Braves
    4. Twins
    5. Dodgers
    6. Reds
    7. Angels
    8. DBacks
    9. Blue Jays
    10. Phillies

    And this is what he had to say about the Phillies’ system:

    The Phillies’ system had a down year by all accounts, with many of their most vaunted players coming into 2018 struggling with performance and/or injuries, and both scouts and execs reporting back that the Phillies’ biggest names had lost value in their eyes. They had two big breakouts from Spencer Howard and Luis Garcia (the shortstop), but their track record of poor results on high first-round selections — they’ve hit on just one first-round pick, Aaron Nola, since taking Cole Hamels in 2002 — has absolutely hurt their system’s value as a whole.

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    1. Amazing how the Dodgers are up so high

       Sounds like farm system has a good chance to bounce up a few slots if Moniak and Haseley can get going. A good year for Bohm will help a lot too. Heck … if they can get a gem this year too, it wouldn’t hurt

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       1. How do the Braves continue to continually have one of the best farm systems?

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          1. Well, for a while they sucked – that helped. They make excellent trades and are forward-looking and progressive in their moves – that helps. They have a world-class international program and spot the best talent outside of the US – that helps. And they cheated a little and that helps too.

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          2. @Denny – what the Braves did is what I advocated for Johnny A. to do in the Rule 4 raft. The Braves invested on power arms and they are made some shrewd trades to pick up good upside prospects. Fortunately for the Phillies, Aaron Nola developed into a legit TOR arm (despite of the lack of FB velocity) and Pivetta is showing glimpses of a solid #3 to he slightly ahead of the “arms race” for now. But the Braves are catching up fast so the Phillies need Sixto, Medina, Howard, Gowdy and JoJo to keep pace.

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             1. K K – Have you given up on Eshelman, De Los Santos, Suarez,and Irvin?

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                1. I’m not high on Esh and Ranger and I see DLS more as a bullpen guy.

                   I like Cole Irvin although I see him more as a Eickhoff type, a reliable arm but with limited upside. Cole Irvin will not move a need in the “arms war” unless he suddenly developed a plus pitch and/or a Cliff Lee-like command of his pitches.

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                2. The hidden gems of power arms are really coming from Sal A.’s minefield just like Seranthony, Edgar Garcia, Sixto and Medina and potentially Morales and Castillo. Victor Santos and Manuel Siva are under the radar arms that can breakout in 2019.

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             2. LGJ, Encarnacion, Ortiz, Moniak, Randolph, Haseley, and I guess you could go back to Hewitt: the Phillies have bet a ton of $ and primo picks on finding an OF, especially an OF with power, and have thus far come up empty, as none of the above has stepped forward. It is bordering on the obsession and incompetence of chasing the Great White Whale. This is what has held the Phillies system back. They do well with pitchers, although most of the successes have been development, rather than large $. Where they have focused, they have come up dry. It is sort of systemic. The organization has been very bad at identifying the right OFs to drop big international $ and high draft picks on. Burrell was a 1-1 and he was really a 1B moved to the OF — it showed. Getting OFs from the amateur ranks has been the Phillies Achilles heal. Time to give up and just spend the money on pitchers, catchers, and IFs and trade for OFs or sign as FAs.

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                1. Don’t forget Dylan Cozens. It was s good draft with power. I was reviewing Pat Burrell’s carrer and I do believe DC could match his numbers.

                   Based on 162 game average he would need 29 HRs, 95 RBIs, .254 average and about 160 Ks.

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                2. Cozens doesn’t even match Burrell’s AAA numbers. How can we possibly believe he could project to match his major league offensive stats.

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                3. I found that Rob Deer’s minor league numbers match DC’s and he had a very acceptable career.

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                4. Of all the corner outfielders you could pick from and Rob Deer is the best comp you can come up with. A .220 career BA. led the AL in strike outs 4 seasons, and projects out to 198 strike outs over a 162 game season. The 23-26 HRs Deer averaged in his productive years could easily be plucked from free agency without having to worry about Cozens’ 50% K rate in the majors.

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                5. Just saying that if Rob Deer can play multiple years as a starter in ghe major lwagues why is Dylan Cozens such a pipe dream?

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                6. Patricia,
                   …I cannot answer for anyone else, but as to DC playing in the majors, with another team other than the Phillies…… is a possibility.
                   The Phillie OF is too crowded with young players that have already proven more at the MLB level than DC has…ie Williams, Quinn, Herrera…then you have Harper maybe, there is Cutch and finally Altherr.
                   Getting him to learn to play first base is an alternative for him for flexibility.

                   I just see him with another team soon.
                   Like I posted before…the DBacks or Giants would be a fit for him or a number of AL teams.
                   In any event come Nov, and he is not protected on the 40, he is free to go anywhere he wishes.

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    2. I’m surprised at how high they are given the failure (so far) of high draft picks as discussed in the article. Spencer Howard is a pretty big kick save for them.

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    3. Top 10 farm is nice, although I see the Phillies farm more on the Top 12 -15 range.

       Sixto’s absence really hurt the farm since if he played at normal capacity, he can be Top 3 RHP prospect and a Top 15-20 prospect nationally.

       I like Adonis Medina a lot and his stuff is better than his numbers. Unfortunately, some outlets cannot see him as much, thus, rely on his average-ish numbers to grade him. I believe that Adonis Medina is a Top 50 prospectand at least at par (if not better) with someone like Triston McKenzie.

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    4. Hah…Angels were bottom five two years ago now they vaulted to top ten..
       Farm rankings are like the stock market.

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    5. We also lost Kingery, Alfaro, Seranthony, and JP.

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    6. Very accurate description by Law. I’m actually very pleased with #10, it could have been worse. We really need a better season in the minors this year. That would include good years by Sixto, JoJo, Medina, Bohm, Haseley and Moniak as well as some lower guys like Young, Ortiz, Gamboa, and Brito. Haseley is the only one on my list who had a good season 2018. It’s a lot to expect though to see all these guys push through. Let’s hope.

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15. Can we have any quarrel with that? Until Haseley shows he can continue his performance from last year, Mickey duplicates his finish and adds a little power in AA, and Alec Bohm shows he can stay at 3B and actually hit the ball with power, then the system has been hurt by the lack of a difference maker with those 1st Rd picks. I hope all 3 play great, and when they do, our ranking goes up.

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    1. If Sixto (TOR), Medina (TOR) and Luis Garcia (GG, All-Star) continued to progress based on projection, the Phillies farm will see a big jump in the national prospect rankings since these 3 prospects are legit Top 25 caliber.

       On the domestic scouting front (Johnny A./Rule 4), Howard and Gowdy will need to have a solid 2019 to get noticed. JoJo Romero has a making of a bullpen profile so he doesn’t appeal that much to national outlet.

       Amongst the Johnny A. Rule 4 draftee (except Howard and Gowdy), probably it is Logan O’Hoppe who can turn heads in the national rankings.

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16. No need to overthink the Harper and Machado situation. Both will sign to the highest bidder. Harper could be a Dodger and Machado a Yankee if Middleton is not willing to open his wallet. The fact that the financial giants like the Dodgers and the Yankees balk at playing the bidding war with Middleton, I doubt any other teams will. I 100% believe that Harper will be a Phillie – right fit (LH bat, RF), potent offensive weapon in CBP, face of the team and marketing agent and snatching it away from a division rival. IMO, there’s already an agreement in principle between Harper’s team and the Phillies management. The question now is Middleton thinking of signing both since the market value declined from the initial projection.

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    1. Kuko, I tend to agree that an agreement is in place. All a matter of how, when and where the announcement is made, as per my posts above regarding MLB The Show, which btw I’m thoroughly tired of mentioning.

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       1. Assuming that Harpen agreed in principle with the Phillies, it will be smart for Klentak to start to trade Nick Williams who is projected to be a starter with Doobie and Cutch. Once the Harper news becomes office and kick Nicky Dubs to the bench, Klentak’s leverage will go down.

          I’ve suggested a package of Eflin + NIcky Dubs + others (i.e. Gamboa, Ranger, Parkinson) for a rotation arm (CLE as the initial target and Robbie Ray as the secondary choice).

          I agree with you, I’m also tired of talking about Harper and Machado. I already know the end game and that what’s matter most to me.

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          1. Interesting point you make. If Phillies were about to ink Harper, wouldnt we start to hear some rumors regarding Williams?

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17. FWIW Dept….Phillie phan 702, who posts on another site and, as I have previously mentioned, lives in Las Vegas and is a friend of Harper’s believes its going to be announced this week. Also, as I have previously mentioned, he is considered quite reputable on a site that, like this one, doesn’t suffer fools easily. He was the poster who said that Bryce and his wife had decided to sign with the Phillies almost immediately after the LV meeting with Middleton but then “Boras doing Boras things” has held up the signing.

    He has never wavered in his belief that Harper was coming to Philadelphia and even felt, as I do, that the meeting with the Padres, the “rumored” circle back with the Cubs, the talk of a mystery team, all the tweets and speculation coming from Mssrs. Heyman, Bowden, Nightengale, Morosi and Edgar Allan Poe were meant as a devise to get Middleton to up his offer and I do suspect it will work.

    Look, I am not Nostradamus, though I did stay at a Holiday Inn recently, and I am curious to see how this all comes out also but while the tea leaves all look good right now, this still is Scott Boras orchestrating this and it will be imperative for the Phils to top that $325 million that Stanton got. I am sure Boras has been promising this to Harper for a couple of years now and will not agree to any deal that doesn’t exceed, even by 1 dollar the $325 that Stanton got.

    This is simply my surmise here…but if you are of the belief that the Nats never truly intended to re-sign Harper but needed to make it look like they did for all Nats fans, the reported $300 million offer would be a legitimate reason to believe this. The Nats, who know Boras and Harper better than any team out there, undoubtedly knew Boras’s goal and what better way to A] look legit but B] still get turned down is to offer an amount that looks impressive but doesn’t quite hit the goal.

    I will also surmise this…Middleton knew of this goal also and basically wanted to cut through all the suspense and red tape and get this over with with his original 9/360 offer. Middleton is also a good business man and probably knew Boras would say no and was probably surprised when it was Harper who said no. He then pulled the offer off the table and began circulating, via Salisbury, that Machado was still the team’s main interest, probably because he figured if Harper would turn this down he really didn’t want to come to Philadelphia.

    Boras, through back channels, probably let Middleton know this was not the case and encouraged him to come to Las Vegas and meet Harper and his wife. I believe it was at that meeting that the Phils decided they would shift back to Harper as Preferred Player #1, but were prepared to sign Machado if he indicated a desire to sign.

    After the meeting, it was Harper who changed his mind, loved his meeting with the Phils, and indicated a desire to sign. Boras then, as wily agents always do, decided since he had both Harper’s and the Phillies attention that he would endeavor to try and get Middleton to revise that 9/360 offer, something I suspect Middleton feels he has no reason to do now. BUT, he does know about the $325 million floor, understands it, and will likely offer it soon, if he hasn’t already.

    Again, I don’t know IF Harper signs, though I think he does, but I am quite confident that if he does A] it will be for more than $325 but less than $360, B] Harper will say he always thought Philly was an enticing place to play and C] Boras and Middleton will praise each other for their ability to negotiate fairly, honestly…and quietly.

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    1. @CD – I agree that the Stanton contract is the threshold to beat to get Machado and Harper’s attention. Both players know that the Phillies are the only ones stupid enough to shell out that kind of $$ —- so the FA turned out to be a Phillies sweepstakes since only 1 player will win that Middleton cash.

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       1. Great commentary, CD!
          I am a little hesitant to hedge my hopes on someone who claims to be friends with Harper but as you mention, they are friends. His comments also lines up with MLB The Show trailer dropping and some other promising rumblings I have seen (won’t share as I dont want to post rumors).

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18. MLB the Show Twitter account confirmed the trailer is dropping tomorrow. Maybe, just maybe something happens.

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    1. TrollU…thanks for that update.
       I assume the Bryce camp told MLB they will not wait until March to announce …so netter reschedule their programming.

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       1. Dropped similar time last year, however, it didn’t have the same fanfare as this year’s. It does kind of line up with CDs source.

          I think it’s time for Tac3 to hit up his Phillies’ buddy 🙂

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19. CD, I agree with you completely, and I believe that the scenario you laid out is exactly what happened. I think the last issue was Boras doing his due diligence, realizing the Dodgers and Cubs are not making competitive offers, and closes the deal with us at a number higher than $325. I think the first 2 years exceed what Greinke got as a per year salary, currently the highest, and exceeds Stanton’s total, so Boras gets bragging rights on both fronts.

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20. The beauty of the Phillies’ negotiating strategy is that they have never let it be known who was their main target between Harper and Machado. Amazing that they could contain such information with all the “leaks” to reporters nowadays. Now, they’re in a position to “scoop the whole pot”. I’m not predicting anything. I’ve decided to ignore the rest of the hot stove season and focus on upcoming spring training.

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    1. Scoop the whole pot is HUGE, Jim😁

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21. If you didn’t see my tweets this morning –

    Nine new faces participated in pre-ST today – pitchers Enyel De Los Santos, Adam Morgan, Josh Martin, Jared Eickhoff, Jeremy Bleich; catchers Austin Bossart, Henri Lartigue, Colby Fitch; and outfielder Jose Pujols.

    — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 4, 2019

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    1. … and this –

       … and Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin have arrived at the facility in Clearwater.

       — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 4, 2019

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22. Gabe Kapler arrived Friday. He came over and spoke to us after practice. One fan asked if there was any one thing the team hoped to focus on during spring training. His quick response was “base running”.

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    1. LOL definitely a big one and hopefully defense…
       Baseball season is about here!

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23. If tomorrow is the day, I can see where Harper may have told Boras that he had until today (Mon) to find a better offer from another club. If not, he makes it official with the Phillies and Sony on Tuesday. That’s why we’re still seeing reports of as many as 8 teams interested in Bryce. Yeah right, Scott. The question remains – will Boras get that record breaking deal? Not sure how much Harper cares if it’s AAV or total guaranteed. Romus’ figure @9/333($37M AAV) sounds like a win-win. But who knows, it may not be quite that high.

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    1. Like you posted the other day…probably higher AAV early on, with an opt-out or two after 4/5 years. I think Boras would be satisfied with something along those lines.

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24. Manny Not Thrilled On Offers????
    https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/report-manny-machado-isnt-thrilled-with-offers-has-longshot-hopes-for-yankees–552368.html

    ,,,he just needs to pace himself, they will come.

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    1. He might have to settle for red pinstripes, Romus.

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       1. It really is surprising how few teams have come courting for both BH and MM.
          Last July , the Phillies were one of a dozen teams combined that were suppose to go after these two guys.
          i suppose he could come to the Phillies….but I still see Harper on the longer length contract if they both end up here.

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          1. I see Manny on a 6-8 year deal with early opt outs. $200M-$240M. Harper 9-12 yrs, $330M-$350M

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             1. The continued duel between Dan Lozano vs Scott Boras.
                Lozano would have to humble himself some in that circumstance.

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                1. Well it’s not like he and Boras need to talk to each other. And in any case, Machado’s value was determined by Machado and his persona more than his actual skill set. But can you imagine this lineup with both players? This becomes a 90-92 win team by virtue of the jacked up offense, improved defense (especially the left side of the infield) and more experienced young arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Better bat to ball skills throughout the roster.

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25. I was really sick of baseball by the end of last season (actually, really, sick of watching no offense and boring games for 8 years), but I’m finally getting ready for a little hardball. Batter up!!

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    1. I guess it was just 7 years, but it felt like 20.

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       1. 94-06/07 was pretty brutal for me

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          1. Actually 85-92 was worse… Sorry tried to block it from my memory … Players like Randy Ready … lol

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             1. Took a trip down memory lane …

                Charlie Hayes … Dickie Thon, Tom herr … Pat Combs.

                I can still hear Harry and whiteys voices … lol as was too young and stupid to realize just how bad these teams were.

                Man those were some lean years.

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          2. What was wrong with 2003-07???
             2003 – 86-76 (3rd, Bowa)
             2004 – 86-76 (2nd)
             2005 – 88-74 (2nd, Manuel)
             2006 – 85-77 (2nd)
             2007 – 89-73 (1st)

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26. I fear, if the Phillies offer BH or MM a Stanton contract, they will get in a few years a Stanton result.

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    1. That could happen…though Stanton’s main flaw is his 28% swing and miss rate….Harper’s is 21% and MM is 16%.

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27. ‘Assume’ Harper is the guy, and he will sign. Are we ok with Franco at 3B, or is it Machado? or even Moose? Moose being a Boras client would be nice. That would free Franco to Padres.

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    1. If not Machado, Moose is the 3B. If they can at least entertain the idea of signing Machado and fall short, they can certainly overpay enough to secure Moustakas’ services. Franco’s value is primarily in the return he can get back in a trade. Please, no Harrison.

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       1. 8mark – If the Phillies sign Harper and Moustakas, they take themselves out of a possible Arenado deal at the deadline.

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          1. Wawa, perhaps. Depending on Moose’s deal, and whether Colorado is in the playoff race. I doubt the Rox will be out of contention in another tight NL playoff picture in 2019. If it’s a one or two year deal, the Phillies may be able to move Moustakas if Arenado was placed on the trading block. I don’t see Moose getting more than $10M AAV, which should be manageable in trying to shed payroll at the deadline. But I doubt the Phillies would be players for Arenado before he enters free agency unless Moustakas’ performance was dreadful. In which case, they might simply release him once they acquired Arenado. But I don’t ‘not’ go for Moustakas now because I ‘might’ want Arenado IF he’s available later. Franco? I’m convinced that the FO has moved on from him whether you or I agree or not.

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          2. @Wawa – Phillies is never been in the Arenado sweepstakes. They either sign Machado or wait for Mike Trout/.

             As most book one of Harper/Machado as a Phillie, I book Arenado as a Dodger when he hits the FA.

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    2. @SoCal – if Middleton will not sign Machado, I think Klentak’s play is to gauge what return will Franco have in the trade market. If the return is good (i.e. Strahm or alike) Klentak will trade Franco and sign Moose and/or MarGo. If GMs lowball Klentak on Franco, Klentak keeps him for another year and use the remaining $$ to improve the bench or look for a fallen SP.

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28. At the beginning of the free agency season, I believed the Phillies/John Middleton would pay whatever it took to land either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper as their face of the franchise superstar. We’ve now hit February, and I still believe the Phillies/John Middleton will pay whatever it takes to land their face of the franchise superstar FA. The only difference between now and the beginning of the free agency season is that it now appears very likely Manny Machado or Bryce Harper aren’t going to cost the Phillies/John Middleton nearly as much as I first thought.
    Many are posting Scott Boras won’t let Harper sign for less than Giancarlo Stanton’s 325 million guaranteed dollars. As of tonight, I haven’t seen any credible reporting to suggest any other team is offering anything close to 325 million dollars. If that’s the case (and I suspect the Phillies FO knows where the bidding stands), why is everyone so certain this team is going to have to go that high?
    I was told (and I believe) the Phillies end game is Mike Trout. They want one of Harper or Machado now, and still leave themselves ready to land Trout after 2020. It looks like the team has it’s mind set on Harper. IMO, the compromise deal is a front loaded 10 year/~310 million dollar pact that would allow Harper to opt out halfway through, just when the yearly values begin to decrease. The example I’ve offered would look something like this:

    year 1 … 38 million
    year 2 … 38 million
    year 3 … 38 million
    year 4 … 38 million
    year 5 … 38 million
    opt out
    year 6 … 30 million
    year 7 … 30 million
    opt out
    year 8 … 20 million
    year 9 … 20 million
    year 10 . 20 million

    This would guarantee Harper 190 million over 5 years. Boras would claim a record breaking 38 million AAV. The lower yearly salaries over the second half of the offer would allow the Phillies to keep the cap hit to 31 million AAV against the luxury tax threshold. That would help leave the club with more cap space to fit Mike Trout if/when he becomes available.

    Having said all this, the eventual contract will probably be much more complicated than this. However, until another team steps up and offers Harper more guaranteed money, I just don’t see Middleton feeling the need to bid against himself.

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29. Gentlemen … another day closer to knowing the answer.

    8mark is on the clock today, feel free to turn the dial up on him! Don’t be alarmed, The hot seat starts out lukewarm at first bud.

    Let today be the day…

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    1. If not today, i think by end of week. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

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       1. Let’s hope, At this point im more excited for the follow up moves to go along with one of the star signings … and of course … anticipation of the Phillies signing both – realistic or not.

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    2. Tac3, I’m on the edge of my electric chair. Biggest reason that I want this to get done is really about all the subsequent moves that still haven’t been made. Who plays 3b? How are we acquiring a LHP? Which OF gets traded?(my guess is Nicky Dubs)

       Jim alluded to other things happening once Harper is inked. Perhaps deals have been already agreed to, contingent on Harper/Machado…??

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       1. Same here. We are all excited for one of the stars to sign, but overall it’s the final roster configuration I think most of us are waiting to see the most. I’m going to be judging the payroll as well, the maneuvering they allow themselves down the line. Right now, I see abut 36-44mil in movable/removable salary over the early portion of the competing window. Personally I don’t want the “cap” maxed so early on. Let’s see how the team gels before maxing out the payroll. This is why I’m wearing of Mous vs Franco. If the bloated payroll at 3B worth the improvement? Also, if BH – do they trade Herrera? Unlikely but they could go Harper McCutch, Williams/Altherr until Haseley is ready? With Quinn mixed in when healthy … does that make Herrera worth trading. I see Herrera here, But im not going to be surprised if he is moved. From JimP’s comments, sounds like They are counting on Herrera this year. His salary is up to 6mil, so if he streaky again… might not be so far out there to see him moved.

          So many questions based off one domino falling … can’t remember a time like this in Phillies history .

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       2. 8mark…for sure Klentak will need to make multiple moves, especially clearing 40 space, only because I count approx 14-16 minor leaguers who will need to be added to the 40 later this year.
          And as to pitchers alone ….four pitchers of note Sixto, JoJo, Llovera and Cole Irvin, then the bubble guys like Falter, JD Hammer, Will Stewart, Grant Dyer, Manuel Silva and Fanti

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30. Kyle Young has grown three inches since the Phillies drafted him in 2016.
    Have to assume he will be listed at 7’1″ at some point in his professional career vs the current 6’10” draft height listing.

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31. this really is groundhogs day the movie. please sign so I can get on with my life

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    1. Yes, 6 more weeks of waiting for a signing for Harper and Machado.

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       1. yikes
          don’t even say things like that

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32. Help me out here guys:

    Phillies Payroll – Stands at 115mil or 150mil?

    You need to count benies, bonuses,Minor league payroll, correct?

    I believe it sits at 150millionish, with 44mil in removable salaries in (Hunter, neshek, niascio, Herrera, Franco, and Cehe) Not that they’ll get rid of them all but, looks like some flexibility to sign the big targets and lean on the minor league pitching to keep salary low.

    Still interested to see how this plays out, waiting for the next show to drop like everyone else

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    1. Their luxury tax payroll is currently at 156 million dollars.
       https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-philadelphia-phillies-info/

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       1. How does the Luxury Tax work and what will be estimated financial status of the Phillies when Trout is available?

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          1. This year, the luxury tax is set at 206 million dollars. If you stay under that mark, you’re fine. If you go over, your team is penalized. The penalties (taxes and surtaxes) vary depending on how many years in a row you’ve been over, and by how much you are over.

             If you go over the first time, you pay a 20% tax on every dollar you spend above the luxury tax limit (206 million in 2019). If you’re over two years in a row, that tax increases to 30%. And if you’re over at least three years in a row, you’re hit with a 50% tax.

             In addition, teams incur a surtax. That surtax is calculated by how much you go over the cap/threshold. If your club is 20-40 million dollars over the cap, you get hit with a 12% surtax (no matter how many years in a row you’ve been over). If your team exceeds the cap by more than 40 million dollars, you’re slapped with a 42.5% surtax. If you go over the threshold by more than 40 million two or more years in a row, your franchise suffers a 45% surtax. In addition to the surtax, if your team goes over by more than 40 million dollars, your rule 4 draft pick is penalized by ten spots.

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             1. Also … Mike Trout could become a FA after the 2020 season. The Phillies currently have 58.5 million dollars on the books for 2021. The luxury tax threshold that season will be 210 million. Even if the team signs Harper at a 31 million AAV contract (as I proposed earlier in this thread), the Phillies would have just 89.5 million dollars on the books for 2021.

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                1. So Hinkie, can I then persuade you to allow that the Phillies may now be legitimately entertaining the idea of signing both Machado and Harper?

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             2. Wow. Thank you for the thorough response. Does the luxury tax adjust year-to-year?

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       2. Thanks for clarifying. I believed it was 156mil vs 115mil. Have to factor more things in than just player salaries. I can see this being one way to appease the players. Take out bonuses and benies from the calculation.

          To clear up for Denny, the pentalty is applied to the dollar amounts over the luxury tax ceiling.

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33. Off topic…
    The Phillies wall of Fame fan ballot is out. Pick top 3. Mine – 1 Shake n Bake McBride (he won a WS)
    2 – Bobby Abreu (great talent with impressive career numbers if not a winning player) and 3 Scott Rolen, another great talent who didn’t endear himself to too many people, including Larry Bowa and even Tony LaRussa who despised him in St Louis.

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    1. Honorable mention goes to Manny Trillo, one of my all time favorites. Didn’t have big numbers but was a great guy, had a great glove, whip like arm and also was a WS winner.

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       1. Trillo and Dubee

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34. Per Rosenthal, Phillies have again checked in on Realmuto

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    1. “checking in” is already old news. Most GMs check in with top players as part of due diligence. The take away from that Rosenthal reporting is that there’s no indication that a deal is close.

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35. Former #Royals catcher Drew Butera signs minor league deal with the #Phillies that pays him $1.3 million and 200k in incentives if he makes the big leagues with a March 21 opt-out

    — Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 5, 2019

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    1. moves like this always feel like youre doing something just so you can say youre doing something
       its like when you sign a multitude of veterans middle infielders to minor league contracts

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       1. How excited can you get on a Drew Butera signing? Its like bringing Irish Mike Ryan back.

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    2. I expect the Phillies not to roster him and Butera will opt out by March 21. Part of the Spring Training NRI carousel.

       Deivi Grullon is also a SP invitee, I hope Deivi blast some bombs on his way to the 40-man roster (sorry Knappy boy – you’re out!!)

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       1. It’s customary to carry extra bodies to catch bullpen sessions throughout ST.

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36. During BP, pitcher Larry Bowa pointed to Austin Listi and said to Ray Burriss, "Bagwell".

    — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 5, 2019

    Hey Jim, I guess I have to pay more attention to Austin

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    1. Who needs Bryce Harper when we have the second coming of Jeff Bagwell?

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    2. He modeled his stance off Bagwell. Similar build. Strokes the ball well. Made the adjustment to AA after mid-season promo.

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37. I had him at 13, and we voted for him at 15. Maybe we were too low? I hope Bowa is right! On Wall of fame, I vote for Manny Trillo.

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    1. What positions for Listi?

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       1. On an AL club? Three – DH, 1B, LF.

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          1. Listi makes good as a replacement for Altherr.

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             1. ………or a replacement for DC!

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                1. Nope. He is a platoon with DC. Good thought!

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    2. I have to admit, I thought 15 was to high, but then again with such an emphasis on power at the corner positions and defensive skills in center, not sure where Haseley fits with the Phils moving forward. Especially if they get Harper.

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38. MLB The Show trailer has been released. Absolutely no clues/no announcement on who Bryce Harper is signing with. I assume this plays out for probably another two weeks.

    This is The Show. Pre-order now: https://t.co/Mu5uVHV2BT pic.twitter.com/JXRvTN4Ac2

    — MLB The Show (@MLBTheShow) February 5, 2019

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    1. NOOOOOO😟😟😟😟😟😟!!!!!!

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       1. Son of a biii…….!!!!

          I was hoping 8mark, sounds like they missed a marketing opportunity there. They had video gamers attention and baseball fans that don’t usuallg go down that road.

          Like I said, we should be mentally prepared for another 2 months, opening day …. ridiculous

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39. Trailer dropped. No team announcement.
    Drags on some more.

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40. Harper & Realmuto
    Machado and Realmuto
    Harper and Machado

    What tandem do you prefer? Obviously Realmuto will have some pain in the prospect category, but should allow more financial flexibility to add FA to improve team. I’m assuming he’ll make less than MM or BH.

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    1. Let’s remember that JTR would be ours for 2 years (I’m pretty sure).

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       1. He is a bargain at $5.9mil for the next 2 years. That kinda of production would be pretty nice to insert into the lineup

          Herrera
          Segura
          Harper
          Hoskins
          Realmuto
          McCutchen
          Moustakis
          Cehe/Kingery

          Lol and if we want to get real crazy … add in Machado for Mous.

          If they could pull
          That off without having to massively overpay the Marlins, it would be worth the overpay

          Efflin or VV, Alfaro, And sixto or medina… with a fringe prospect – Close enough for Realmuto?

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          1. The Marlins really whiffed on Yelich they will expecting the next club to make up for that….I’ll pass.

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             1. DMAR….Alf, Herrera and Sixto or Medina,…still pass?

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                1. Pass

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                2. I mean that’s tempting Romus but yeah I still pass. I’m not a fan of spending on catchers they get banged up too much and when you have one that your depending on for a boat load of the offense even worse.

                   Just give me the steady backstop that can catch and throw and hit a little and get on base. I’ll invest in other areas of the diamond.

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                3. I heard the “ask” is Alfaro, Sixto, and Kingery; and that Kingery is a “must” for Marlins.

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             2. @DMAR – I agree. Jeter is a smarter GM now. As I mentioned below, it will take at least a package of Alfaro-Bohm-Sixto-Medina-Garcia to be at par if not go ahead of what SD, ATL and HOU can offer.

                HOU will Whitley alone can trump what Klentak can offer similar to what BAL did for Machado at the deadline.

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                1. “it will take at least a package of Alfaro-Bohm-Sixto-Medina-Garcia “….Jeter will not get that from either Padres or Atlanta…….rarely does a trade anymore bring back more than 3 , maybe 4 at the most, pieces.

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                2. Machado was traded for 5 players and Hamels brought 6 players back.

                   If you limit the players 3 to 4, then it’s more likely that the Phillies will have no chance to acquire JTR.

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                3. KuKo….got me there……but how many were considered top 100 talents by BA/Fangraphs…..Alf and Williams….Thompson was back end….Eickhoff and Asher were not close.
                   Machado as a rental no less……the five players, outside of Diaz and Kremer, were lottery tix for the most part.

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                4. @romus – i think we both love and agree that JTR is exactly what the Phillies need. Our disagreement is on how much value will it take for the Phillies to acquire JTR.

                   Unless Jeter really likes some of the prospects and MLB ready players that the Phillies have, acquiring JTR will come at a very steep price.

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          2. McCutcheon
             Machado
             Harper
             Hoskins
             Moustakis
             Realmuto
             Herrera
             Segura

             I want to see Yankees 98 (99?) like Middleton did now. Screw Klentak for tempering expectations.

             This is definitely possible.

             Alf, Elfin, Howard, and Romero for Realmuto. Macharper Mouse is a free agent. Still would have VV, Williams, Franco, and Ramos or Arano to trade for a starter or get some pieces for minors.

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41. i think the frustrating part is we don’t really know what the holdup is. are teams lowballing?, do the players/agents have unrealistic expectations.? are they waiting for a specifc team/teams to hopefully jump in? etc

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    1. Exactly, my suspicion is that not much has changed from 2 months ago. I sense the players camps are unhappy about what they consider low ball offers.Machado more so than BH. For Machado, It was stated as so, and I can easily seeing anti-Johnny hustle complaining. I bet he is kicking himself for not busting it down the line now … not such a big deal is it?.. especially when you could get an extra 30 million or so. Imo, no way his behavior did t cost him at least 30 mil. He was projected to make more than BH before the trade to the dodgers. His offers have been the same since eight before Christmas. I suspect the teams have called his bluff, and are correct. That offer sheet probably has dust on it by now.

       For BH, turning away 9/360 probably felt great at the time, expecting more or at least multiple offers in that range from his preferred list…. I can see Boras doing everything he can to inch his way back there. I suspect he falls short at around 330mil
       For 9 or 10 years. Opt outs at 4 and 6.

       Let this be a lessson kids…. always bust it down the line…. lol especially if you’re a major leaguer. Smh … at least make it look like your trying to bust it

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42. Disappointing, but not surprising. I have been attempting to prepare everyone for “Boras doing Boras things”. While today seemed a wonderful opportunity to introduce Harper as a Phillie, Boras couldn’t care less about these things, just like he didn’t care about Harper signing in Las Vegas at the GM meetings, wouldn’t have been stymied by this weekend’s Super Bowl, and is unlikely to care that Spring Training starts next week.

    With all due respect to Hinkie, whose arguments are logical, informative and thorough, I remain convinced that Boras will accept no deal that doesn’t surpass the $325 million that Stanton got. With lesser clients he would suffice with a AAV number that is higher than anyone else but not with Harper. Look, this is his Mona Lisa moment, a case can be made that Boras will never again have this perfect storm event…26 year old player that he views as a “generational talent”, one last chance to get a player a 10 year deal, and a promise that I believe he made to Harper as far back as two years ago.

    He doesn’t represent Trout or Betts so he can’t count on using them to get the largest contract ever and he is a master and knowing which way the baseball winds blow…and right now they are blowing in the direction of less years, less long term deals, and greater emphasis on players who can play multiple positions as opposed to the guys who are more specialists with 1-2 strong traits.

    Add to this the notion that he simply will not allow his client to sign before Machado does and we are looking at a situation that I am unsure we will ever see again…two mega talented 26 year old future HOFers who are still unemployed in February.

    I suspect as Phillies phans the one thing I can say optimistically is that the Phils seem to be showing incredible patient here, no small feat when you consider all the other things they need to do before the season starts in about 7 weeks. I suspect at least 15 major league organizations would have moved on by now. Boras is no fool, he KNOWS how we as Phillies phans feel and he will attempt to use this to his advantage.

    Oh, one more thing worth noting. Reports that Machado is unhappy with his offers and the threat to possibly revisit the Yankees sounded to me like a direct message to the Phillies. This tells me the White Sox and Padres offers are not impressive enough and with reports that Arenado is looking at possibly signing an extension at about $200-$220 million it seems Machado may be seeing his market become clear. He is younger and better than Arenado so a deal in the $240 range may be what MM will get.

    He may want $300 million but Harper is the only one who is going to get to the level.

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    1. I think the holdup is now the Arenado extension. At the start of the offseason it was a non factor, but not At this point. The Rockies Player and Agent seeing how the fA market is changing, probably gives them some nice motivation to sign an extension. Nothing will happen before then for MM or BH. Will be waiting some more for sure.

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       1. Tac3…Arenado just won his arb case for over $25M…..though the owner says what he is suppose to say….it is pure speculation they would try to extend right now two weeks before ST…..more than likely after the mid-way point of the season the talks could start to heat up.

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          1. Ok my error. Read the tea leaves wrong on that one. Disregard portion of the Arenado comment…

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43. Nothing new, as far as I’m concerned … Bob Nightengale says, “The Phillies are in the driver’s seat. Pretty much, they can have whoever they want.” He’s still got Harper to the Phillies and Machado to the CWS.

    https://uw-media.usatoday.com/embed/video/2743872002?sitelabel=reimagine&placement=snow-smallarticleattophtml5&keywords=baseball%2Cbaseball%2Cnational-sports%2Caction%2Cdesire%2Csuccess%2Coverall-neutral%2Cbaseball%2Csport%2Csports-fandom%2Cbryce-harper%2Cmanny-machado&simpleTarget=&simpleExclusion=&pagetype=story&cst=sports%2Fbaseball%2Fmlb&ssts=sports%2Fmlb%2Fcolumnist%2Fbob-nightengale&series=

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    1. Mr. Dreamer … I agree with you that Boras/Harper are aiming to break Stanton’s record for the most guaranteed money (325 million dolars). However, as we sit here today, there is no evidence to show any team is offering that kind of money. The Nationals may have offered 300 million four months ago. I read about 30 million of that was deferred money. Also, since that offer may have been made, Washington has bought Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, etc. They are now right up against the cap threshold. Since they’ve been over the cap for at least the previous two seasons, a Harper contract would not only cost the Nationals the real dollars in the contract, but would also cost the team a 50% tax on almost Harper’s entire 2019 salary, and an additional 42.5% surtax on part of his 2019 salary. At this point, Harper would be so costly to Washington, Bob Nightengale reports that original offer from the Nats no longer exists.

       If no team in MLB is willing to come close to Stanton’s 325 million guaranteed dollars, what are Boras/Harper going to do? Does anybody believe Harper sits out the 2019 season? Absolutely not. The Phillies will outbid any other team for either Harper or Machado. However, they are not going to bid against themselves.

       Maybe something changes, and another team (LAA ?) jumps in offering at least 325 million, but time is running out for that to happen. As things stand today, Boras/Harper are probably going to have to settle for a front loaded deal that allows Harper to opt out halfway through. Boras will claim a record breaking AAV for the pre-opt out years. At least, that’s the way I see it.

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       1. BTW … just looking at the numbers … if Washington agreed to give Harper that 10 year/300 million dollar contract today. Harper would actually cost the Nats 46.25 million dollars in 2019 because of the taxes and surtaxes the team would incur.

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          1. Hinkie…..they would be in that penalty for many years……and that is not adding in the $25M plus they will need to pay Rendon, if they plan on keeping him, after next season for 5 more years.
             Cannot understand all the national guys still saying the Nats are still heavily in on Harper…..does Boras give home town discounts? Hah.

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       2. I like your thinking, but something tells me Phillies are at a number and not budging and will not care about losing MM or BH. I heard some podcast from a Phillies guy and he was referencing an article which basically states the last ten FA 95% have been bust or not living up to standards! The article spoke about Darvish, Hosmer, Arrietta (didn’t live up to money in my opinion) Santana (horrible production for money) and others, so its interesting times for sure, but I like your thinking. Yes, JD Martinez is a great hitter and solid FA year and lived up to the money.

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          1. Harper and Machado are not the normal FA (players who hits FA at the wrong side of 30). Any team who signs Harper and Machado will have a good change to see about 4-5 peaks years from elite talent.

             Machado and Harper are a different FA class by themselves. Both Arenado and Trout will be 29 when they hit FAs — Machado and Harper are 3 years younger!

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          2. You can’t put them in the same category as those other players for a slew of different reasons. They just aren’t comparable.

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          3. I think each contract has to be viewed on its own merits. Many free agent contracts turn out great, like the Scherzer deal or the Dodger’s Greinke deal. But the issue is the risk when you give a guy top dollar and many years – there’s just a lot of risk so you have to try hard to get it right.

             It’s funny. The Carlos Santana deal wasn’t great but his OPS+ was about what it normally was – so yeah, he was overpaid a bit, but really by not that much. The problem with that deal was that Hoskins couldn’t play left field and they lost a draft pick as they have now shipped off the contract so no lingering financial effects.

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44. Realmuto to Phillies is gaining traction

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    1. Your post is misleading. Tim Brown is just speculating saying “could” gain traction. Probably bored waiting for Machado and Harper decision.

       Jeter is looking for high end prospects. With ATL, SD and CIN involved, Klentak has no shot in landing JTR unless he acquired bad contracts with JTR —- I’ve recommended this approach last year and unfortunately this ship had sailed away from the Phillies.

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       1. Kuko, JTR does make sense in this regard – the Phillies have excess in young talent to include in such a trade. Granted, Alfaro would be a central figure in a return, but there are several good but non-elite players who should be of interest to Miami. We won’t hold our breath but Brown’s tweet is the 2nd separate one today.

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          1. @8mark – if you remember, I’m very hard in pushing for JTR last year when Jeter is new. likes to bring down costs and and no animosity against NL East rival — a ripe opportunity for Klentak to get JTR possibly at a bargain price similar to how MIL acquired Yelich. Jeter is smarter now and JTR had another year.

             Does it makes sense to acquire, yeah he’s a position of need and a very good one —- and most of the GMs are thinking of the same too. With SD and ATL bidding, Klentak will need to empty to top end of the farm — no thanks!!

             I normally evaluate trade and FA based on the current market not historical and teams fit and preferences. The Phillies has the edge in the Harper-Machado market but behind in the JTR trade market. If no teams can overbid the Phillies for Harper-Machado, the Phillies cannot overbid SD and ATL or HOU for JTR,

             If I have to make a prediction, i will give HOU as the team to acquire JTR. HOU is in win now, have top end talent and has been in big trades recently.

             If I will play my GM hat, I considered to trade Alfaro to CWS for Carlon Rondon and signed James McCann as the C. With Harper/Machado-Segura-Cutch-Hoskins-Doobie in the top of the line up, there will not be a high demand to produce at C position in the bottom of the order.

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       2. KuKo…..Phillies could offer Medina or Sixto as part of the return package.
          Now that sweetens the pot considerably. Alf will go for sure. Then it comes down to another high end prospect or current Phillie on the 25.

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          1. If the Phillies will trade their top arm, it should be for a top arm in return i.e. Hinkie’s Blake Snell proposal. With the Phillies acquire some good bats in Harper/Machado-Segura-Cutch, there’s no pressure to produce at C position. Behind Aaron Nola, all rotation arms are still work in progress. The Phillies need to keep their top arms to ensure that the rotation will have enough reinforcement when some of the work in progress arms did not work out.

             The current roster is thin is reliable top arms —- if Klentak cannot get a top arm, then don’t give away one.

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             1. “there’s no pressure to produce at C position.”..depends.
                if you want to get to the WS it helps….defensively and offensively.
                They touch the ball more than any other player in a game…plus they QB the pitching staff.
                He is arguably the best catcher in the majors now.

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                1. you are also speculating about this. Yeah it helps, but it will not guarantee a WS, If the Phillies just sign Harper and Machado (which is possible to happen) – this should give them a good chance to win the WS and they keep their top arm to make a sustainable run.

                   Do I want JTR – yes!! I’ve been saying this trade since last year!! But the market have changed with SD, ATL and HOU joining. I just recognize that the Phillies don’t have enough trade assets to watch with those teams unless their want to mortgage part of their future.

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                2. **to match (not watch)…

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          2. It’s a bit tough on which is more valuable. Sixto or Medina. When both healthy, it’s sixto, but … we are left wondering. If sixto is hurt, it would be a great way to cash in on him or if the Phillies truly believes he is more of a bullpen pitcher. There was
             Speculation on that so, don’t shoot the messenger.

             A tough call. Tougher than it probably should be do to unknown injury potential of Sixto.

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             1. IMO. just ask Jeter/Hill which pitcher they prefer.

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          3. SD and ATL have a stack of power arms. Klentak cannot overbid those teams unless he will empty the whole cup (Sixto, Medina, Howard, Jojo) and that may not be enough/

             HOU can offer a package headlined by Whitley, ATL with Soroka, Wright plus a Top 100 position player and SD with a combo of Morejon, Paddack, Baez Allen, Weathers and can throw in Mejia —- Klentak is no match!

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             1. Phillies already have a starting MLB CFer in Herrera who is young, cheap and talented and can be included..

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                1. another player I recommended to be traded a year ago. Good luck in finding a GM that values Doobie better than a Top 100 player.

                   To match what ATL, SD and HOU can offer for JTR – Klentak should be ready to give up Alfaro, Bohm, Sixto, Medina and Luis Garcia as a minimum. Jeter possibly value Haseley more than Doobie.

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                2. Herrera, Sixto and Alf. Done deal in my humble opinion.

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                3. My thought process is simple
                   Phillies are silent on transactions. As soon as we hear they’re interested, etc, it always seems to come to fruition pretty quickly.
                   Ie Cutch

                   I think Phillies have a real chance for Realmuto

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                4. I’m a little disappointed in this news. I’m a huge fan of offensive catchers, they are rare, and usually only a few of them in then league at a time. realmuto would be really nice to have …. but … I would have resigned Ramos instead, and Mix him with Alfaro. Yes realmuto is better and cheaper but this way I keep Alfaro and my top pitching prospect

                   For hypothetical purposes … if the Phillies are serious about realmuto, does Kingery hold enough value to lessen the cupboard fleecing?

                   VV or Efflin, Alfaro, Kingery, Medina?

                   Again I would have rather resigned Ramos, thought it was a smart move to hedge against alfaros development

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                5. Tac3…all GMs are looking for offense in catchers…..but they also want defense first…Buster Poseys just do not grow on trees.
                   JTR is cheap and controlled……making the Trout get in a few years even more attainable.

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                6. I wouldn’t overly focus on Realmuto as the future C but rather as an elite bat for whom you would need to find a position, perhaps the DH is adopted by the NL within the next few years. If he is still taking by then, and he re-signs, we’re in great shape.

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                7. *’raking’, not taking

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                8. @tac3 – the issue with the Phillies right now is that they don’t have a top talent that beats what HOU (Whitley, Tucker), SD (Gore, Mejia) and ATL (Soroka, Wirhgt) can offer. Sixto is the top prospect that the Phillies can offer but his 2018 season bring more questions than answers. The Top 100 prospect is littered with SD and ATL talents so these teams can sweeten the deal and the Phillies cannot match.

                   I love JTR and I recommend the trade since last year. But given the current market (SD, ATL, HOU and include LAD, CIN, etc) — the Phillies just doesn’t have enough trade assets to match up with the other teams,

                   Kingery (and possibly Doobie) could have moved the needed last year, but not this year.

                   People can be intrigued to have JTR in the line up, but Klentak doesn’t like complications. Klentak will just use the stupid $$ to acquire Harper/Machado, MarGo and Mous.

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                9. @Kurdt
                   Agree. The Phillies cant match prospects. The only way I could see it is If the Miami valued our recent grads more but that is unlikely. Best hope is that klentak checked into see if those teams aren’t willing to offer the prospects they want, and the Phils top offer beats ATl, hou, SD’s 2nd best offer. Doubtful but that would be doing due diligence imo

                   @romus – Ramos was signed fairly cheaply, seems the Phillies could’ve made
                   That offer but went with Alfaro instead. Who knows maybe he didn’t like it here and went NYC
                   . I hope alfaro takes the next step this year, the one we have waited for.
                   No big deal missing on either the bigger names if he develops.

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    2. I still am puzzled by their decision not to sign Wilson Ramos – BIG mistake in my view because as much as I like Alfaro’s raw talent and personality (he seems like an awesome team player), he is still very much a high risk young player. We shall see.

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       1. Mets are taking a little risk on Ramos, who is turning 32 this season, and the last two years has incurred some lost time to injuries.
          They have him for two years at about $20M ($10M AAV), so the money is not a great risk.
          But when healthy he does provide that solid hit tool.

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45. I am not in the Realmuto camp given what he would cost. Under no circumstances would I offer the # 1 through # 5 prospects and Herrera, Williams, VV, Eflin et. al. for a catcher – who is excellent, but mans a position subject to inordinate injury—- daily. See Buster Posey for the picture of a great offensive catcher who is now a shadow of his former hitting self. This is customary. I see every reason to stay with Alf and give him a solid shot – get Maldonado or another backup defensive specialist – but do not trade the future for one player – and a catcher apt to be put out of commission at any moment.

    Notwithstanding – the comments above regarding other team’s potential trade offerings is valid. No way Phillies can compete with the top 2-3 systems offering their players for Realmuto which only magnifies the actual cost. San Diego – alone – owns 10 of the top 100 prospects !

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    1. Perhaps, but nobody seems willing to offer the talent Miami is asking. If those teams remain “stingy” in who they’re willing to give up, then that lowers the bar for the opportunistic Phillies. I am seeing tweets from reporters saying the Marlins like the Phillies youth, if only for being in the same division. I also read words like ‘traction’ and ‘progress’ when the market for JTR has been slow to develop. I love Alfaro. But JTR may make as big an impact as either BH or MM, at least in the time that he’d be here.

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       1. Many argue….Realmuto (880 games as a catcher) may have limited hi-WAR time as a catcher due to the arduous task of the position. Then again , Alf is only two years younger than Realmuto with over 650 games caught as a catcher…so stands to reason his time is also limited…..and he does not even come close to Realmuto now offensively or defensively….and please do not want to here his great framing skills.

          The other aspect…..the Phillies farm system may have the most high ceiling catching prospects than most teams….and in 3/4 years the hope there will be a few of them will reach their premier prospect potential.

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46. Buster Olney was just on ESPN radio and said that the Phillies currently have the highest bids for both Machado and Harper. Given what we know and what we have been hearing lately, Machado is still not content with the Phils offer since yesterday it was indicated that he was disappointed in his offers, and the Phils offer must be a bit north of 10/300 since that is what Washington offered.

    Olney also indicated that what is happening is that the Phils are playing one off of the other, not a bad strategy but certainly a dangerous one. This re-confirms what Hinkie and others on this site have been suggesting…that if the Phils pull out on either player their market collapses.

    Also, yesterday on the Washington Posts National’s chatline it was mentioned that the Nats have asked Boras/Harper to delay any signing till they have completed their arbitration hearings. Now, I did not hear this but read the report from someone who did. Seems bizarre to me, is Rendon or Zimmerman arbitration eligible?

    I keep circling back to what Jim said yesterday when he indicated that the Phils have played this well and could “swoop” both of them up but if they are really serious about acquiring Realmuto then I cannot see them affording all three.

    Realmuto will be a free agent in two years and it seems to me that if the Phils do acquire him they will pay a ransoms worth of prospect gold and if this happens, do you really want to lose all that for two seasons of play? Probably not, which means the Phils would end up having to pay Realmuto a ransom’s worth of gold to keep him.

    Look, I know its stupid money but Machado, Harper, Realmuto and then maybe Trout in 2 years? Come on, even Middleton has limits.

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    1. Rendon is $19M this year….this was his last year of arb.. he is a free agent next year. Now they may be trying to extend him.
       Zimmerman….not eligible for anymore ….$18M this year….team option next year @$20M

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    2. Here is Buster Olney, Mr. Dreamer. He says the Phillies are in a commanding position because they are the only team willing to give out a big contract. Also says the team is playing Harper and Machado off of one another.

       Buster Olney today: Phillies are playing Harper and Machado off one another pic.twitter.com/tDSXqp7KyM

       — John Foley (@2008Philz) February 5, 2019

       As I posted about a month ago … it’s like a game of musical chairs. You don’t want to be left standing after the Phillies spend their stoopid money on their face of the franchise superstar FA.

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       1. Also backs early offseason rumors of the Phillies bidding against themselves…. you know … right about the timeframe everyone thought they’d have signed by now … 3 months ago.

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    3. About the WaPo chat stuff … Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) shot down those pie in the sky Nationals plans to shift around money to resign Harper in today’s chat.

       Natitude
       Saw this in a WaPo chat yesterday – interested to hear your thoughts:
       “Boras and Harper are waiting for the Nats’ final offer, which can’t come until the last arbitration case is determined. No, they can’t fit Harper’s AAV under their current cap, but they can reduce their cap by beating Barraclough in arbitration, trading Eaton, and (here’s the trick!) extending Zimmerman for two more years at $5m per, thus reducing his AAV for cap purposes from $18m to a mere $9.3m. Your ruling?”

       Steve Adams
       The math on the Zimmerman thing is wrong, for starters.
       His current contract is six years and $100MM, meaning the new deal would become $110MM over eight years. That comes out to $13.75MM for luxury tax purposes.
       That suggestion is just taking this year’s $18MM, turning it into 3/28, and taking that AAV, which isn’t how it’d work.
       Generally, I think they’d be better off just taking the 2019 hit in terms of luxury tax rather than extending Zimmerman just to save a little money up front on the luxury penalty. Maintaining the long-term roster flexibility is more important and more valuable. And Zim is the kind of guy who they can’t really cut a year from now if he’s not even a $5MM player, because of everything he’s meant to the team.

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    4. Darn it, sign them both and let’s move on!

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47. Corey Seidman makes a valid point on Realmuto. His impressive if not great numbers at Miami’s large ballpark may have been negatively impacted. CBP would provide a much more productive venue for 81 home games. Just sayin’…

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    1. The numbers don’t lie.

       Realmuto splits:

       2018 Home: 8 HRs, .773 OPS, 118 wRC+
       2018 Road: 13 HRs, .870 OPS, 134 wRC+

       Career Home: .676 OPS, 87 wRC+
       Career Road: .852 OPS, 127 wRC+

       As we saw with Yelich last year, get guys out of Miami and they could explode.

       — John Stolnis (@JohnStolnis) February 5, 2019

       However, I’d still be reluctant to trade Alfaro, Nick Williams, and Adonis Medina for JTR.

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       1. Meant to say … However, I’d still be reluctant to trade Alfaro, Nick Williams, and Adonis Medina for “2 years of” JTR.

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       2. I would not. Nobody in that package offsets what JTR can provide for the opening window of contention that the Phillies are now climbing through.

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          1. JTR, with Harper puts the Phillies in contention immediately.
             Williams will have to go with harper here anyway….Alf is not a back-up and Medina is two years away and who knows.
             I would also add Dylan Cozens to the deal , sorry Denny, with everyone’s high ranking Gamboa.

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             1. Throw in Altherr.

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                1. Not as attractive as DC.
                   DC has that power tool that attracts GMs.

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                2. Show attract Kap and Phillies brass too!

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          2. There is also the theory that Bryce Harper has always been a vocal JTR fan.

             This *probably* has nothing to do with it, but Harper wanted the Nats to trade for Realmuto in the past. Was vocal about it, including bringing it up after Realmuto beat them in a game. https://t.co/0DoDufjU6l

             — Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) February 5, 2019

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       3. Actually, that’s a deal I’d consider if you could combine it with a contract extension buying out a few years of free agency. But if Medina became Sixto or Howard or Bohm, I wouldn’t do it. I like Medina, but not as much as those other players (we don’t know what we have in Bohm yet, but can we really ignore the possibility that he could be a first division regular third baseman?)

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48. I saw that Hinkie. The WaPo article was wrong on their valuation of an extension for Zimmerman, and how that would save the calculation for AAV, also included winning vs. Barraclough in Arbitration, and trading Adam Eaton. This sounds to me like another smokescreen aimed at getting a higher # from us. I think the Nats ownership knows exactly what they would pay Harper, and even if there is another # forthcoming, they can’t beat us in total amount. So, we are back to Harper taking less to go back to Washington. I don’t think that he and Boras are waiting this long to take the second highest offer.

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    1. Also … Adam Eaton only counts 4.7 million dollars towards the Nats’ cap. He’s not that big a savings.

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       1. But Adam Eaton’s cap hit, with a Harper return, would not be the biggest issue….it is the crowded OF…Soto, Harper, Eaton, Taylor, Robles…they would be forced to trade one….most likely Eaton or Taylor, and forced to sell low.

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49. Spring training around the corner and tons of free agents not signed because of Boras and these Mega stars.

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50. The Gabe vs Nick Francona battle……circa 2015/16 Dodgers….Nick was probably the whistle-blower to the FBI investigation also.

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/05/nick-francona-gabe-kapler-controversy-los-angeles-dodgers-assault-allegations

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    1. Didn’t read the whole thing. Is this Nick Francona as in Terry’s son? If so I’m surprised, played on a team w him in HS, he was a decent pitcher and good kid.

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51. Anyone familiar with Jhongel Malavar? Phillies signed him from Latin Leagues as 18 year old pitcher on 2/3.

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52. With regard to JTR, you can keep him for two years at a way under market salary. If he doesn’t want to extend, you can give him a QO and get a 1st round pick.

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    1. Again you don’t get 1st round picks for putting a QO on a player anymore. You get that teams next highest pick after the 1st round.

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53. Well, by Jim’s standards, the Realmuto talks are now something with weight as local beat writer Jim Salisbury is reporting sources confirming talks have been taking place.

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    1. And imagine this opening day lineup:

       Jean Segura ss
       Bryce Harper lf
       Rhys Hoskins 1b
       Mike Moustakas 3b
       JT Realmuto 6
       Odubel Herrera cf
       Andrew McCutchen rf
       Cesar Hernandez/Scott Kingery 2b
       Aaron Nola p

       It’s a distinct possibility.

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       1. So we’ve been waiting and watching this rebuild for years just to sign/trade for 5 new hitters (out of 8)? Couldn’t we have done this in 2015? or 2017? lol
          (To be sure, this is just rhetorical.)

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          1. yea, while that above lineup does intrigue me, i highly doubt there will be a 63% turnover in the starting 8 position players in one year. I’m all for keeping Franco over signing Moustakas as i see that as a lateral move and don’t envision him bringing much back in a trade anyway. i like the steps Maikel took last year in his development as a hitter, and i think there is more left before he reaches his ceiling, but yea it’s more than possible that I’m just overly-optimistic. I would, though, like to see what the Rangers/Padres would offer us for Franco (and others?) if Machado does come on board, but other than a MM signing I don’t think the Phils move on from Franco this offseason

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54. … are we getting Harper, Machado, Realmuto, and Kuechel? … maybe even Kimbrel? Lol .. ummm damn these rumors

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55. I don’t know how shrewd Jeter is when it comes to evaluating players. But Alfaro’s potential with improving defensive capabilities will be Klentak’s best ace for him to land JTR. I predict that HOU will get JTR but SD have the best cards to offer — Mejia and combo of power arms.

    If Jeter prefers MLB ready young talent, then the Phillies can have a shot especially if Jeter want to jettison some bad contract like Chen.

    A package of cost controlled MLB ready players like Eflin-Alfaro-Williams-delos Santos is a solid package — is that enough and appealing to Jeter is another story.

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    1. For our sake I hope Jeter is the one trying to be GM but I think they have a GM in Mike Hill although they precariously do not have anyone who holds that official title.

       Jeter is listed as CEO.

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56. Some more from Tuesday at the Complex.

    Early reports to Clearwater have doubled as the organization has brought many of their young Venezuelan players stateside, including catchers Marchan, Aparicio, and Gutierrez. pic.twitter.com/2ugGk0wIyg

    — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 5, 2019

    Those with vias problems (like Gamboa) are at their Dominican Academy.

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57. Anderson, Morgan, and Nola throwing from the mound. pic.twitter.com/nZXLG4yO9d

    — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 5, 2019

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    1. Followed by Young, Pivetta, and Eflin … then Brown, Martin, Bleich …

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58. Austin Listi batted in the first group with McCutchen and Herrera.

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59. The early reports grew from 15 on Friday, to 24 on Monday, and to over 45 on Tuesday.

    Nola and Eflin arrived Monday and were throwing off the mound on Tuesday.

    It was hard to identify all the new faces. Here are some of them – Aparicio, Guttierez, Marchan, Lenin Rodriguez, Matt McBride, Eickhoff, Muzziotti, Brito, Llovera, Gonzalez, …

    Hopefully they’ll make them wear shirts with their names on them soon.

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60. The gridlock on FA route 19 is mind numbing. Rumors of trade talks heating up, new teams suddenly and supposedly interested (now SF is meeting with Harper?), holdups with arbitration hearings. I’ve had gall stones on a few occasions, and I’m told that’s the closest a male will come to experiencing labor pains. This off season is like a pregnancy in its 10th month, and the doctor keeps dropping in to say, “it’s not quite time yet.”

    Manfred! Fix this freakin’ mess!

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    1. But on a more encouraging front, Jeff Passan reported that among things being discussed between the players union and MLB – a 3 batter minimum for pitchers, universal DH and a single trade deadline. The fact that they are talking at all amid tension between the sides is a good sign well in advance of the next CBA negotiations.

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    2. I’m sure new teams are checking in because they think the offers are so low they can jump in and get a steal but I don’t think the offers are really that low.
       the agents are just attempting to squeeze every last dollar out of the situation.

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61. Hold the phone … new CBA talks. A universal DH …. that would change the thinking on a lot of moves for the Phillies imo.

    Would you still have traded Santana?
    Looks like Quinn and Cozens become more viable
    Does it now make more sense to sign both BH & MM in anticipation of 2020’s DH. I think it is very unfair to FOs who have been active this offseason. Really changes the moves you’d make, in not only roster spots, but dollar allocations. To me, I can’t see it happening this season, but I believe 2020
    Is the year for the hot button topic.

    On the 3 minimum batter rule … I can’t see that passing. A better compromise is possible. The rule imo would eliminate jobs on the roster. I can see a minimum of 2, as then it could make sense to still carry a lefty specialist or just have a rule that you can bring in 1 pitcher a game to face 1 batter.

    I think they should also eliminate the INT walks … sure you can pitch around, but nothing is more hurtful to the game than having a Barry aaBonds standing with the bat on his shoulders … imagine getting trout and he just gets walked twice, to 3 times a game. Can’t happen imo. Need to make a rule that each int walk on a specific batter adds an extra base.

    Let the players hit. One ofThe best aspect of the game to me is the pitcher batter matchups within the game, ex Nola vs Harper. Don’t ruin it with INT.

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    1. Tac3, word is they are contemplating universal DH for 2019!! Other rules changes next season. That is HUGE!

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       1. An immediate implementation of the DH in the NL as pushed for by the union would spur some activity to sign more FA bats more suited for that role. However, Nelson Cruz signed with MIN without the benefit of having 15 more teams to potentially pursue him.

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          1. From my understanding it will not be immediate …..butfor 2020.
             NL teams have not had adequate time in the off-season to adjust their rosters for that change, which makes sense.

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          2. I hear that. It think it will be 2020 vs 2019. A fair counter move to this is to bump the luxury tax up some. For years roster spots/roster allocations in the NL are different than AL for obvious reasons

             In any event, this should make Dylan Cozens, Williams, Altheer,Quinn, and Haseley smile. Seems it could give one of them a better chance of catching on. With the DH news and the bump to a 26 man roster, could really help those guys. I’m sure the logjam at SP is happy too.

             Overall, interesting tweaks to the game, minus the controversial DH topic. I’ve submitted though. I don’t want to see a 25mil-30mil Ace type pitcher get plunked on the hand or pull a hammy running the bases. I love the strategy but I think for baseball to grow, more offense is better to draw in more fans…. before we all die off

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62. Love the universal DH
    a long time national league fan but cant stand to watch the pitcher hit anymore

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    1. sr, I have been a long time purist. But you are right, the days when pitchers took pride in their swing are long gone. Why bother with the charade anymore?

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       1. Yes the days of Mitch Williams and his 0.0 WAR rating are over … winning games with his bat and blowing leads with his arm cancel each other out lol

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          1. Nice one!

             👍

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63. On the Slow play from the FO with these 2 guys…

    The cat and mouse game has ramped up. On one hand we have reports that the Phillies are back in the Realmuto offers … with the stars countering with new interest SF coupled with SD/AZ/LA. Now the push is to think about a massive 1 year deal to push your value, with the Phillies showing that other options exist, much cheaper.

    It’s getting dicey, but Middleton can just say fine, here it is 9/360, sign the stupid thing. IF these guys sign 1 year deals, baseball FA has changed by leaps and bounds and so has our sanity.

    I’m a be one really pissed off phillies fan if this bounces the wrong way for them. It does sound like Boras being Boras, but the longer this drags on it gives time for them to find other solutions than the Phillies.

    Well… baseballs are on the table, will see how this ends

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    1. I am holding hope because of CD’s chat forum source.

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64. Maybe by St. Patrick’s Day!

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    1. For the green like lots of $$$$$$$$$$.

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65. This just in : St. Louis Browns declare interest in Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Rumor has it that Seattle Pilots may also be interested…….details to follow.

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    1. The little sisters of the poor are also interested in him but on a low AAV deal, very short term. Word is he likes their uniforms.

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       1. If the Lovely Ladies get involved I’m gonna lose it.

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          1. I like the optional shorts with high stockings.

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    2. I heard the Philadelphia Athletics were taking a look as well

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    3. Not with an elite OF in Seattle like Tommy Davis, Wayne Comer and Mike Hegan. Maybe as 4th OF or DH.

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66. One big wrinkle in this unending Machado/Harper situation – Arenado, and whether he signs an extension with COL, which may be plausible due to the trend of free agency and the fact that he’s soon to be 30 years old. For two significant reasons – one being his (and theirs as well) value would be given a range in years and dollars, AND the second being that he would be one less star player on the market next winter. Problem is, who knows if or when he would sign anytime soon. This is worse than that leaky faucet in the middle of the night.

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    1. 8mark – If Arenado were to be traded either now or at the deadline, he would be a fool to NOT sign an extension with his new team. As they say, “A bird in the hand …

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       1. I’m inclined to agree with you, Wawa. These players and especially their agents had better sober to the new reality. Owners have turned the reins of their ball clubs over to savvy, analytical minds with new math and their regret of past misjudgments in paying for past performance has finally caught up with the players. No man. Now both sides need to come to the table and agree to allow for the right allocation of big money to the younger players who shouldn’t have to wait years before their talents are awarded.

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    2. Not sure what you meant for a minute /………. “which may be plausible due the END of free agency……./ i had to reread that….because “end” may be the operative word. I can’t imagine any player not wanting to sign an extension at this point – it just is not worth it.

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67. Even though I’m an Alfaro fan, I’m also a realist. Alfaro will never match Realmuto’s numbers on offense, so I’d be willing to trade Alfaro, Williams, Miami’s choice of Medina or Sixto, and Miami’s choice of Haseley or Moniak to open the conversation.

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68. Been quiet since yesterday’s JT rumors. Beginning to think the Phillies are done for the offseason.

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69. Put a final offer on the table for both Harper and Machado.

    Tell the players/agent to take it or leave it by Monday.

    Then, move on to the other trades that are being held up.

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70. TrollU, I don’t think they are finished at all. Regardless of Harper/Machado, I think they add a SP, and there is at least one trade. I don’t think Moustakas is out of the question because I have believed all along that Franco is being traded, as well as one of the RPs, like Hunter. This is not the team for next year, and even if we lose out on Harper/Machado, there will be more moves. At this point, Harper signing a 1 year/$40 Million contract would not surprise me. I am surprised that the Machado rumors are non existent.

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    1. Everyone said the same thing about JD Martinez last yr and he signed long term with outs. that’s the way boras works. I’d be surprised on a one yr deal because nothing to suggest a bigger deal is coming next yr unless he’s willing to go short term to short term
       eventually they will both have to pick a best offer and sign

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71. My one prevailing consolation is that one morning, I will wake up, go to MLBTR and see the headline PHILLIES REACH AGREEMENT WITH __________!

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    1. PHILLIES REACH AGREEMENT WITH _Michael Martinez_!

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72. Miami beat writer Joe Frisaro just tweeted 10 minutes ago that he will have a JTR update shortly. Stay tuned, Marlins and Phillies fans….

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    1. He tweeted that Sixto is a MUST in any JTR trade.

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       1. That’s fine with me. Sixto is high risk. Not taking anything away from his talent but red flags all over him for my comfort. If the Phillies say ‘no’, Sixto damn well better become something close to Pedro 2.0

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          1. Alf, Sixto, JoJo and any outfielder (major or minor league) works for me.

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       2. If Realmuto had 4 or 5 years until FA, I’d consider it. Sixto makes the deal a no go for me and so would Howard or Bohm (and MAYBE Garcia). I’d tell give them Medina and add any current reliever other than Seranthony.

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          1. Only Medina out of that list.

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             1. I’m also assuming Williams and Alfaro are in the trade – that doesn’t bother me in the least.

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                1. I would think so but the report also mentions that while Alfaro would be his reasonable replacement, that tidbit hasn’t been confirmed yet.

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                2. Now if for some reason Alfaro wasn’t included in the deal, wow that would put a feather in Klentak’s cap.

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       3. So Medina stays…along with Howard i hope.
          So two of the pieces will be Alf and Sixto…..the next one or maybe two wlil be interesting….assume one will be an OFer 40 already or maybe hi-A or above, the last piece I hope…just four total…….maybe an infielder.
          I think Jeter/Hill got burned on the Yelich deal and may look to make up for it.

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          1. MLBTR adds that Miami wants a deal done before Saturday’s Marlins Fanfest.

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             1. No problem.
                Matt needs to work faster.

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             2. Not sure if this link will work, but check this out on Alfaro vs Realmuto
                https://twitter.com/TheOriginalBull/status/1093241721738199048

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                1. Actually the ages are as of….2019..Alf is 26 and JTR is 28
                   Also 81 home game Park Factor would likely favor JTR if he hits in CBP.

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                2. But has anyone looked at the defensive upgrade JTR provides vs Alf….not a lot but maybe enough to get a few more wins.

                   Player Team SDI
                   Buster Posey SFG 6.4
                   Manny Piña MIL 6.1
                   Willson Contreras CHC 4.1
                   Yasmani Grandal LAD 3.7
                   Austin Hedges SDP 3.6
                   Yadier Molina STL 2.0
                   J.T. Realmuto MIA -0.1 **************************
                   Tucker Barnhart CIN -1.1
                   Francisco Cervelli PIT -1.2
                   Jorge Alfaro PHI -2.1 ***************************
                   Kurt Suzuki ATL -4.1
                   Chris Iannetta COL -5.5

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                3. Whatever is holding up Harper’s Bizarre (no, not ‘bazaar’ – at this point it’s bizarre…thanks, Scott) getting Realmuto may be the cherry on top in directing Harper’s attention back east. I’m not suggesting one player would make all the difference but BH was clearly impressed by the Real Deal when he beat the Nats one night last season. Get it done, Matt!

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                4. wRC+ 117 for Alfaro. Of course, no mention of the 34% k rate. Alfaro could take a BIG step foward this year. The important part is COULD.

                   When the Phils sign Harper, you trade for the more certain player in JTR. To me Harper puts them at 84 wins. JTR puts them at 87. I sure hope that is the way they are looking at it and not as a fallback if they don’t sign Harper. Now… How do they get them last 3 wins?

                   For the real in depth stat guys, how crazy is what Alfaro did? It’s crazy to me the decent numbers he put up with a 36% k rate. How close does he get to what looks like 26% k rate once he made adjustments in the minors?

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             3. Yes, the Marlins must get this done before that party of 8 shows up for their “Fan” Fest, ha

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                1. Lol

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                2. 8 single tables.

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73. I think Giants for Harper is a real threat

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    1. TrollU….Giants are committed right now at $178M for 2019 and $128M for 2020.
       So Farhan Z will be cutting it close unless he can dump Johnny Cueto and his $22M.

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    2. Of course you do

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       1. Exactly. Of course he does. LOL !

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          1. Hey man it’s just my opinion. No need to be a cyber bully.

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74. And Harper’s going to play for a washed up team with a ton of bad contracts, old players, and no farm system ? On top of that they are so close to the penalty – does the new GM want to start off in the penalty box ?? They better offer him an awful lot of $$$ – and I can’t imagine how many HR’s he will hit in that park ??? Not the recipe for “generational” stats for a generational star ! I guess the Kansas City Monarchs will be the next entrant to pull that Harper lottery ticket ?

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    1. ESPN…At&T Park Factor For HRss:….0.666 (30th)
       http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/22542055/fantasy-baseball-park-factors-which-stadiums-best-hitting-pitching

       ….seriously Scott…get serious.

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    2. Old and washed up? If managed properly, the team will not be old. The only concern I see would be finding a #2 starter in the next couple of years. I think Hall can definitely be a 2 WAR player. DH is coming.

       2021= Herrera lf, Segura 2b, Trout cf, Harper rf, McCutcheon dh, Hall 1b, Bohm 3b, pre arb catcher, pre arb ss.

       That would be all but the same WAR in the lineup to me as this year if they get Harper and JTR. Crazy the amount of flexibility a player like Trout allows you as a 6/7 WAR player

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75. Sounding more and more like JTR could happen. Scott Lauber’s latest tweet minutes ago says MIA is in a hurry to move him and they also believe the Phillies have what it takes to get it done, provided Alfaro and Sixto are in the deal.

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76. Include sixto. What are the real odds that he will become a TOR? 5%, 10%? A chance to get a player of JTR caliber does not cone along every day.

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    1. Remember it’s only 2 years of Realmuto

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       1. Two years and he will be 30….so the FA market for 30 year old catchers with about 1000 games caught may not be as lucrative as it would appear if the market stays like these past two off-seasons.
          Of course the Phillies would QO him so a draft pick comes back if he does leave..
          Or he may be willing to sign an extension.
          My concern…his future position if he cannot stay at catcher as it wears on him.

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          1. DH

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       2. A lot can happen in 2 years, Murray. The greener pastures of free agency are not as plush as they used to be. JTR may like it here, be open to re-signing, and even when our young catching crop of Marchan, Duran, etc arrive, the DH will provide another opportunity for the Phillies to spread their wealth.

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77. What’s the consensus? Trade Sixto and Alfaro?? I’m against it but I see the reasons to do it. Sixto becoming a #1 is far from a certainty.

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    1. Do it.

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    2. Yes. Honestly, Jeter could get a dud in Sixto with the potential of his arm injury/hx. Of course he could turn out to be an ace as well. We are all waiting to see.

       I’ve mentioned this before, but there were rumblings sixto was more of a bullpen guy, and if so, this would be trading high on him.
       Lastly, this potential trade goes back to a point I’ve mentioned before, the FO needs to navigate the prospects correctly, trading a sixto and being wrong about his ace potential … won’t be good for the rebuild.

       Would you still trade for Realmuto if Sixto does become
       Near an Ace pitcher, say a 1b/-2A and Alfaro who hits near Realmuto but defense stinks still. The catch for us is Realmuto resigned a 4 year deal. That is not out of questions here

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78. The serious interest in JTR is an indication that the Phillies are now seriously considering a Plan B i.e no MM or BH.

    JTR is an upgrade over Alfaro and Sixto is a high risk prospect. I would add Franco to the deal, if you can sign Moose immediately. If Harper doesn’t sign, Haseley, Moniak, and Cozens’ development will be crucial to the Phillies’ future.

    Franco, Alfaro and Sixto should get JTR and a Marlins prospect.

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    1. I like the idea of expanding the trade. The principals of course would be JTR for Sixto and Alfaro. But if SD isn’t keen on giving up Strahm or a good (not top) prospect for Franco, I act to offer him to Miami if they would be willing to include Jose Urena and we might consider taking on lefty Wei Yin Chen’s money. Then yes, sign Moustakas, tell Lozano and Manny good luck finding stupid money elsewhere. Our focus is, and should still be, on signing Harper. With BH, JTR, Moose, Segura, Cutch and Robertson added this winter, we would be head and shoulders the most improved team in MLB. And that’s without adding a LHP to the rotation. (Chen is disposable IMO, maybe a bullpen option but whatever…)

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    2. Harper is one of JTR’s biggest fans. Look it up.

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    3. I think the Phils want JTR because they know Harper is signing the more I think about it. Harper and JTR adds 6 wins. How do the Phils get the last 3 wins to get to their goal of 90?

       I trade Sixto and Alfaro for him. Especially if they decide to get crazy and sign Machado too.

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79. Trading Sixto is risky….Dodgers traded Pedro in ’93…Dodgers have not won a WS since the late 80s.
    Then again….. high ceiling minor league Phillies pitching prospects traded of late…Kyle Drabek….Jason Knapp…Jarred Coasrt…..Trevor May….Carlos Carassco…..Gio Gonzalez…..Gavin Floyd
    The last three have had success…Floyd for the five years in Chicago.
    So the risk is something Klentak needs to embrace and decide when way or another .
    Sitting on the fence and keeping the status quo is not always the best alternative.

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    1. Elton Brand has let Klentak know … your move.

       This is pretty nuts. Realmuto would be a great get but … like Mous over Franco … how much of an uograde is he from what Alfaro could be this year?

       Not an easy call… but I wonder if the DH rumors have an impact on the Phillies willing to give up sixto and Alfaro.

       Haseley, Moniak, and Bohm are going to play important roles in the prolong run of this team. At somepoint they have to tap into
       That prospects for MlB production. Buying an entire FA class doesn’t usually work.

       But …

       Herrera
       Segura
       Harper
       Realmuto
       Hoskins
       McCutcen
       Mous/Franco
       Cehe/Kingery
       Quinn/Haseley/Cozens – DH

       How much better is that lineup than last or swap RealMuto for Alfaro?

       I’ve been an alfaro fan, but his swing and miss rates on fat meatballs down the plate are concerning
       This trade proposal is worth really considering selling Sixto for .. heck if they sign Kuechel …. does that make it better?

       Then you’d have
       Nola
       Arrietta
       Kuechel
       Pivetta
       Efflin/VV/Eichoff
       With Medina,Howard, JoJo, Irvin to follow.

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80. Matt Klentak cannot let Elton Brand upstage him…then there will come Chuck Fletcher ready to deal.
    Carousel of wheeling and dealing in the Philadelphia sports scene.

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    1. It’s heating up for sure. Even Roseman might send a message to Klentak … if he goes big and franchise tags Foles to get draft picks. Risky move. Is trading Sixto and Alfaro more risky?

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       1. Oh yeah…..Sixto and Alf would be a higher risk IMO..Carson is there already and has produced in the past when healthy.

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          1. the risk is franchise tagging Foles and not being able to trade him.

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       2. I think that if the Phillies put Sixto off limits, we would have heard by now, if only from the Marlins side. Probably coming down to extra pieces…

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81. At this stage, when you hear about another team or mystery team meeting with BH or MM, it’s just noise. Clubs like the Padres and Giants are no threat to the Phillies landing BH/MM. I just read the latest from Buster Olney. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25936519/why-suitors-upper-hand-bryce-harper-manny-machado-chase
    If you’re not an Insider, here are the highlights:

    * Agents and executives not involved believe the Phillies are in a position of strength. “If you’re the Phillies and you don’t believe you have [serious] competition for both of them, you’re just sitting and waiting,” said one agent. “Even if one of them signs [with another team], the other guy probably needs you, at your number.”

    * Some of the executives and agents not involved in the talks also wonder about whether the public entrant of a supposed bidder could be read by the Phillies and White Sox and any other team serious involved as a sign of weakness, rather than strength. In recent days, public reports have linked Harper and Machado to the San Diego Padres, a franchise that doesn’t seem close to contention; Harper met with the Padres. “If I’m in [Boras’] position, I’m working like crazy to make sure that doesn’t [leak] out,” said one club official, “because it smells desperate. It makes it seem like you don’t have as much as you thought you would.”

    Look … there is nothing out there to make anyone worry that the Phillies will not get one of Harper or Machado.

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    1. Hinkie…I really don’t know!
       TrollU has me worried with his premonitions and reports.
       Keeps me up at nights.

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       1. Shake it off, Romus. Stay positive.

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          1. Just my opinion. It’s a Cali team.
             I’m not bashing you for your opinions. I thought you all weren’t supposed to make fun of others for their opinions? Must feel good knowing you make fun of others.

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             1. TrollU…my apologies….all in good nature.
                Keep on postin’

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    2. This is just a hunch, but I find plausible the explanation that Harper is waiting until after the Nats arbitration cases to get their final offer

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       1. It gives him cover, and a good explaination for boras to use for the extreme wait, but I think that is all that it is. A tactic. Nats are going the STL/Pulujos treatment to easy the fanbase of his departure.

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82. So my opinion – Sixto has GREAT potential but some health concerns.
    We know JT is a sure thing. If Sixto HAS to be included for JT, I say add him. Prospects don’t always pan out and Sixto has tremendous risk. JT is a known performer who could be a game changer especially if Harper comes (per CDs sources) or Machado. Either Phillies get neither, JT would still be a great addition. Alfaro is a good player with potential but I’d rather have someone consistent like JT

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    1. What scares me about Sixto is that his injury was an arm injury.

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83. Manny to the CWS in the next few days.
    Harper to the Phillies maybe as early as next week.

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    1. …and then imagine the 100+ dominos falling rapidly afterwards, including Moustakas to the Phillies as a fringe benefit of negotiating with Boras all this time. It’s more than likely Moose’s deal is no more than 2 years, maybe an option for year 3.

       The Phillies will not only have to keep Trout in mind as they budget for 2021 and beyond, but JTR as well. And with the DH likely in the NL next year, I wonder if that also affects the luxury tax threshold since their would be 15 new starting lineup positions to consider, along with each team’s 26th roster spot which is also being discussed.

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       1. the key is to keep the back of rotation and bullpen cheap from the minor league system
          avoid overpaying for 4th and 5th starters and 6th and 7th inning relievers
          and have a few low priced starters in positions
          ex haseley replace mccutch
          kingery replaced hernandez
          Garcia replaces seugura over time

          sr

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    2. Where are the news reports about Machado to White Sox?

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84. C. JTR
    1b. Hoskins
    2b. Kingery/ Hernandez
    So seguira
    38. Moose
    Of. Mccutch
    Cf. Herrera
    Rf Harper

    Trade Franco , Williams, sp to diamnbacks for ray

    Alfaro/sixto/ small 3rd piece to marlins

    Sp
    Nola
    Arietta
    Ray
    Pivetta
    Efflin

    How sweet is that.

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    1. If Kingery develops, that becomes a pretty deep lineup. If McCutchen falls off a cliff? They have cheap replacements that should produce in the minors to replace him with. Heck might even seelll him off to replenish farm system depth and free up luxury tax space. I’ll take my chances that 1 of the OF prospects is an every player

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85. Whoa! Universal DH as early as 2019? I would love to see this happen. I know purists don’t like it, but one awesome Brett Myers postseason AB does not make up for years of horrible swing attempts by pitchers.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/mlb-union-discussing-significant-rule-changes.html

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    1. More than likely 2020. Players union is pushing for 2019 but nothing in baseball moves fast enough for that to happen, does it?

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       1. They seem to concur with you 8mark:
          https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/sources-national-league-adding-dh-this-season-is-highly-unlikely-552709.html

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       2. I am so ready for this. More scoring means less boredom and I think the strategy that results from having pitchers hit (double moves, etc. . . ) is overrated. I’d rather not watch an automatic out every 9 batters – it’s not that intriguing.

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          1. And, by the way, the DH, to my mind, unquestionably gives the AL an advantage in the WS (and interleague games) because AL teams are always carrying an extra premium hitter that can’t be kept on an NL roster. On the NL roster, that player is typically an extra reliever, utility player or 4th/5th outfielder (a player who has much less value than the DH), so the advantage definitely goes to the AL.

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             1. WS winners since ’73:
                25-AL
                20-NL

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                1. I think you are agreeing with me. In any event, historically, the AL has a .526 winning percentage in interleague play – and half of those games are played with NL rules.

                   And this confirms the eye test. Every time we play an AL team away, it’s like we’re playing with one hand tied behind our backs because some dude like David Ortiz helps gang up and beat the living daylights out of the Phillies – it’s entirely unfair because, again, a good DH, when he can DH, is way more valuable the corresponding player on the NL roster (extra reliever or utility player).

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    2. Also the 2019 Phillies would be a lot better with Williams/Franco at DH.

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       1. No they wouldn’t – both of those players would be low-performing DHs – at least if they continued their current performance.

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86. Never ends…..money vs heart for Harper apparently from the perspective of Randy Miller..

    https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/bryce-harper-prefers-to-play-on-west-coast-552832.html

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    1. Maybe Harper doesn’t have the Baseballs to face the Nats fans for the next 8-10’years

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    2. LOL at Randy Miller of NJ.com. He’s just miffed that the SFG’s won’t take Jacoby Ellsbury (and his albatros of a contract) off the hands of the NYY’s.

       Here’s a line from his story today:

       “With spring training beginning for pitchers and catchers next week, all parties would prefer a quick resolution and recent rumors suggest Harper may be willing to take a three-year contract …”

       He later states:

       “Harper hasn’t had much success there – he’s hit .164 with two homers in 19 games at AT&T Park.”

       Listen to what he is basing his reporting on … “recent rumors suggest”.
       Also, Harper is going to take the most guaranteed money offered. Why would he take a three year deal to rehabilitate his market and choose to play those three years in a cavernous park he has had little to no success in (.164 BA & 2 HR’s in 19 games)?

       Come on.

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87. I am really against including Sixto or Howard in a trade to acquire Realmuto. I don’t care if they include a guy like Medina or Haseley in that deal, but Sixto has the ability to be an ace for the better part of a decade. You don’t throw that away for a catcher who is locked in for only two more years. Bad idea. Bad value play. And yet another reason why not signing Wilson Ramos was dumb as heck.

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    1. It makes it interesting catch. On one hand you see ilhis potential, and it’s not a homer view point as man pundits agree. Currently ranked in the top 15 by BA. on the other hand, he could be truly hurt…. if so … then Medina is really your #1 pitching prospect until Howard jumps him.

       It’s tough, if they do trade him, I’d have to feel the front office believes he may have a future of injures that squash his potential and believe they can extend Realmuto’s contract.

       Ramos is still a head scratcher to me, especially what he wind up getting. Made sense to start him 100-120times with Alfaro the rest.

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       1. Let’s put it this way. The differential between Realmuto and a Ramos/Alfaro tandem (which, by the way, has the benefit of allowing the hot hand to play more because both guys have starters ability) is much smaller than the massive value it will take to acquire Realmuto. It’s a terrible value play by comparison.

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       2. Ramos is an injury waiting to happen, not much unlike Sixto, for that matter.

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          1. At the end of the season, I was pushing for the Phillies to resign Ramos. With Alfaro and Knapp, to cover disabled list time, it was a good play imo.
             Those against thought he’d get more years and money than he did, almost double. The Mets got a steal on him imo. It makes the price for Realmuto nauseating, I think that was a missed opportunity by the FO, much like Hamels at last years deadline.
             Sounds like the FO has a plan and buy their way out of the mistakes, so I won’t whine too much.

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             1. “The Mets got a steal on him imo. It makes the price for Realmuto nauseating, I think that was a missed opportunity by the FO, much like Hamels at last years deadline.”

                Agree completely. And, fyi, I was pushing for the Hamels deal all last year.

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             2. thought i read that Ramos didnt want to be in a position where he was mentoring a young catcher or possibly splitting time with him, so signing Ramos with Alfaro here might not have been an option

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88. As the Phillies now get to the point where they are trading away young players and prospects, keep in mind that the great franchises – teams that are great and stay great – virtually always identify the young players that are going to be stars and hold onto them for dear life. If you think that Sixto has a legitimate shot of being an ace – and I do – you don’t trade him for a very good player two years from free agency in a package that includes several other players with significant value.

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    1. I would be okay with the following package for Realmuto: Alfaro, Williams, Medina, Lllovera, and either Haseley or Moniak (of the two, I think more highly of Haseley – I think he has an MLB bat).

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       1. catch … I don’t see the Phillies giving up Sixto Sanchez in a package for 2 years of JT Realmuto. And they shouldn’t have to. No team (Reds, Padres, Braves, Dodgers, etc) has been willing to surrender one of their top 3 prospects to Miami for JTR. The Nationals wouldn’t even give up one of their top 2 prospects last year when Realmuto was under team control for three years.
          Two years of Realmuto (IMO) just isn’t that great a need for the Phillies for them to sacrifice one of their top young arms (Sanchez, Medina, Romero, Howard).

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          1. Hinkie – you and I are agreeing WAY too much these days (LOL). I love Realmuto, but yeah, he’s not worth an elite prospect and that includes Bohm and maybe Garcia (getting rid of that potential upside scares the hell out of me). Depending on the package I’d consider Medina and Romero.

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             1. I should more accurately say Medina OR Romero. I certainly wouldn’t include both in a Realmuto trade.

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          2. I would give them Nick Williams, de los Santos and Alfaro.

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             1. For who…??

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                1. Williams. De los Santos and Alfaro for JTR.

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                2. Denny, that would be the crime of the century. Question is who would get locked up – Klentak for grand theft or Mike Hill and Derek Jeter for administrative malpractice?

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    2. It’s true. Alfaro is not Realmuto, but he could progress to the point that He is well above avg, not quite Allstar level. Combine that potential with Sixto and the financial savings to add elsewhere, makes the argumaent for Realmuto almost one sided.

       Best arguement for Real, is boost. 2019&2020 chances, can potentially extend him, and it might help convince Trout to not sign an extension, seeing what the Phillies are doing

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       1. The opportunity to acquire the best player at a premium position, especially one with JTR’s hit tool, is worth giving up a top prospect with significant red flags, even for just two years – 2 PRIME years btw. Plus it is certainly a possibility that Realmuto may re-sign. Howard and Medina hold more value in my eyes than Sixto does today.

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          1. Sell high, in other words.

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             1. Will see. It is a gut check move. If they truly can have Realmuto for sixto & Alfaro, plus “lower tier prospect … and decide to pass. To me it is a defining moment. If the Phillies FO decides to pull that trigger or pass, they need to win that decision. They need to be right because if they pass, sixtos value could plummet if hurt, so they better be right about that too

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                1. Interesting point, Tac3. My belief/philosophy is that GMs need to win deals when they are rebuilding, and get the necessary pieces when the window of contention opens – which is NOW for the Phillies – even if a guy like Sixto goes on to have great success as a major league SP. Do what it takes to win NOW if now is the time. 2 or 3 years ago, I would say no don’t do that deal. Today, I say yes and amen!

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                2. Suppose the Phillies make the deal (Alf/Sixto/Williams)…and JTR agrees to a LTC buying out arb 2 and 3, plus 3/4 more years..
                   Then is it alright?

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                3. Long term contract has value so, yes, it would enhance the deal and would justify a better package but still not an elite prospect. Just another good prospect.

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                4. I mentioned this yesterday. The free agent market in 2019/20 and onward will not look as green to FAs as it has in the past. Players will be more open to the idea of re-signing with a club if it’s heading in the right direction. The Phillies are known for taking good care of their players. And the are flush with cash these days. So….

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                5. 8mark: another side to this potential deal is that hypothetically if the trade is done, and Sanchez flourishes … those are division wins he’d be posting against the Phillies. In other words if Sanchez is a 16 game winner or more you can add much more value to the wins that come against the Phillies … could be 3.

                   Again … if they make that trade, they better be correct.

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                6. And if they don’t make the trade because of insisting on keeping Sixto, he had better become Pedro 2.0

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    3. Sixto is a phenomenal talent, but he has equally if not more a chance of flaming out than he does becoming an ace. I’m not sure I’d give up Medina > Sixto, Medina has very high potential as well and is much closer to the Majors than Sanchez.

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       1. I hear you, but here’s the thing. The Phillies can replace a #3 in the rotation (that’s Medina’s current projection – roughly). The cannot easily replace an ace, especially one who will be cheap for 6 or 7 seasons. You cannot overstate the value that Sanchez might bring. Unless the team thinks his health is extremely tenuous, you don’t move him for a non-franchise player who is creeping up on free agency. Again, it’s a really bad value play, especially since Sanchez will be one piece of many.

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          1. Amen, Catch. Sanchez has much more potential in my eyes than Medina. To be frank, I think Howard is now the #1 prospect because he has stayed healthy.

             Here is the thing nobody knows about Sanchez. Have the Phillies been babying him because he is such a top notch prospect? Maybe he could have been pitching but the Phillies don’t even want to take a 1% chance on his health. Maybe if Sanchez’s name was Will Stewart he would have been pitching. The Phillies hopefully know if these injuries were minor or the precursor to something more serious.

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89. i think the key is do you trust in the development and health or sixto.?
    if you think he can stay health and pitch 150+ innings a year as a starter. you keep him

    given his elbow pain with limited use. its just hard to imagine him not having TJ surgery on the horizon. I’m in favor of selling high on him. I’m just not convinced he pitches 150-200 innings at the big league level.
    howard , I think , has the frame to do that
    just my feeling

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    1. sr…I lean with you. I have seen plenty of premier Phillies arms falter or traded and not pan out well…..of all them over the last 15/20 years the only ones who have succeeded to any degree at the MLB level were Carassco, Gio and Gavin Floyd.
       JA Happ I do not count since he was already pitching at the MLB level for a few years as a Phillie before being traded to Houston.
       Look at all the others….the Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Scott Mathieson, Trevor May, Jarred Cosart and a few others of lesser perdigree….even ones that stayed in the org….fell off the radr due to arm or shoulder ailments Jon Pettibone, Nick Hernandez, and others i cannot recall at this moment.

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       1. Romus, it sounds like it’s you and me vs Hinkie and Catch. Tac3 is hanging in the balance. Let’s win him over.😀

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       2. sr………plus look at the Phillies pitchers lately who have succeeded….Hamels, Myers, Nola and even Kendrick….soft-tossers …….they rarely hit 94 in the minors on the velo scale….mostly all sat somewhere between 90-93…with other secondary pitchers that were plus.
          The true hi-velo guys work 95 and above now.
          Sixto could be a risk to trade…..but that arm issue is also risky…and if Jeter wants to take that risk, so be it.

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       3. But, guys, here’s where you are wrong. Sixto is a much better prospect than any of those other Phillies pitchers, including Carrasco. The only Phillies minor leaguer in the last 40 years who was Sixto’s equal as a pitching prospect was Hamels and that’s a short list if ever there was one.

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          1. That is an opinion that you have….I do not want to argue that point on the merits of a prospect since it is very subjective and different years have different quality of skilled prospects.
             However…Carassco was rated for three straight years in the top 100 of BA FWIW:
             Baseball America….-2007-41…2008-54….2009-52

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          2. BTW…..on Hamels…his luster fell in the prospect list.
             BA….2004-17…2005-71….2006-68

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             1. Okay, so the references you’ve cited would, rather than cutting against my argument support the assertion that Sixto is, by industry rakings, the best pitching prospect they’ve had in the last 40 years.

                Frankly, Hamels’ went down because, like Sanchez, he suffered injuries and effecitvely just wasn’t pitching at all for two years, but when he was pitching, he was like a house afire.

                Carrasco was a very good prospect to be sure (and he’s become an even better major leaguer) but he was NEVER ranked as highly as Sanchez.

                I stand by my assertion and believe it is correct. Sanchez is either the best or second best pitching prospect the Phillies have had in a couple of generations. You don’t trade a guy like that easily.

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                1. Bear this in mind…Sixto comes up lame this summer and needs TJ…he is on the shelf thru 2020 until 2021…..Jim has him listed as Rule 5 protection on the 40 2019, but I think it is 2020.
                   But that means protecting an injured pitcher on a slot, who you have no knowledge of how it turns out.
                   Al a matter of risk.
                   In any event…..we agree to disagee that is all.

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                2. Phillies signed Sanchez on March 2, 2015 at the age of 16. He is Rule 5 eligible at the fifth R5 Draft after his signing – 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.

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                3. Okay….i wasn’t positive…..I also didn’t think it would count for 2015 since it was the Dom summer league and not stateside.
                   So Marlins have to protect him this November..

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    2. Unless you’re a doctor and know his medical records, I wouldn’t reach the conclusion that he will need TJ surgery. How soon we forget. The Phillies have had several good young pitchers recently who they shut down for elbow soreness and then rehabbed those players properly and had them return to full health for extended periods of time. This happened with both Velasquez and Nola. Remember? I think the Phillies are extremely attuned to what is going on with their young pitchers and urge them to let the team know the moment they feel any elbow pain. Until we know more bad stuff, I would not assume he has lingering elbow problems and, in fact, I’d assume the opposite.

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       1. VV had TJ in 2013…..his innings post-TJ shelf life according to the experts is approaching soon.
          Nola had PRP…and it worked….him and Tanaka are about the only two so far that have went on to better pitching days than prior.

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       2. I won’t argue with that, Catch. My opinion is based solely on the vibe I’m getting with Sixto.

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       3. agreed, its not a sure thing about TJ surgery ( LOL, I AM actually a doctor but obviously have not seen his records) but I am really concerned about his long term health

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90. I am only guessing at what the injury to Sixto really was. Then he had the collarbone problem that kept him out of the Arizona Fall League. But, he is our best prospect, a true potential Ace SP. I don’t trade him. I think JTR is a terrific C, and I give up a lot to get him, but not Sixto. He may never pan out, very true. But, he is worth the risk. Medina, Williams, Alfaro and another prospect not Haseley or Bohm or Howard. Maybe I am not valuing JTR enough, but that is a lot to offer.

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    1. Matt13…..but the consensus is that Sixto is the only pitcher Jeter wants as to Phillies pitching prospects….if it were Medina I’d agree.

       Depends on how bad Klentak NEEDS to win now…his 5-year contract is up after 2020….and Sixto will not help them this year and will be a rookie if he at all makes it next year.

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       1. Part of Sixto’s importance is that he has the chance to provide high quality starting pitching as a pre-arbitration range salary for a number of years. That kind of flexibility when Harper/Machado as well as others are earning “stupid money” is vital.

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          1. He has not pitched over 95 inning in one season yet……I am not sure the Phillies will have him up any time before 2021, when he turns 21, and also have him throw 150 plus innings.
             They just do not seem to work that way with young arms…that now have had some issues.

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             1. If he’s healthy, he’ll be up long before 2021. Hamels pitched fewer minor league innings than Sanchez already has before being called up to the majors. The Phillies moved Cole quickly once he was healthy because he was ready for big league hitters.

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                1. I do not see this year at all ….maybe 2020 as a reliever or emergency starter…and after also after June for service time considerations….I guess that is long before 2021.

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       2. If the Angels want Sixto and Hoskins and others for Trout I’m in…Sixto for Realamuto not as much. Of course I am assuming like most we will sign MM or BH.

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       3. Romus, that is a good point. I don’t know the pressure that Klentak is under from Middleton. I know the pressure he is under from us, but that doesn’t count. If we don’t get either Machado or Harper, how much does JTR help our chances? I know he is good, and I certainly like him. But, I don’t know where his acquisition puts us relative to the other teams in our Division. Right now, I have us 4th. That is not being negative, simply that the Nats and Braves are better, and I think we can be equal, on paper, with the Mets, but we can’t seem to beat them. I don’t want to trade Sixto unless the return is a player that makes us the Division’s best team. A young SP, under team control, is probably, short of a Trout miracle, the only return I feel is acceptable for Sixto.

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    2. Again, when we have entered playoff relevance, there’s a danger in overvaluing our own talent at the cost of not acquiring game changing talent. The FO has to know the moment.

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91. Kyle Drabek was projected as having a #2 ceiling, the others 3, 4, 5 Pitchers. Sixto is projected as a #1. That is the difference to me. And, I agree, we should have Ramos and Hamels. Jeff Passan had a nice quote on the whole Harper/Machado offseason. “Intrigue has evolved into annoyance.” That is how I feel. I was pessimistic, as you all know. Always expecting the worse to happen to the Phils. Then I trusted you guys who are positive that we are getting one. Now, I am sick and tired of the whole thing. I just want it to be over, and I will deal with whatever happens. The system is clearly broken, when the other sports make trades and do signings in a way that is exciting, not in a way that sucks all the fun out of it.

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    1. Yup, I’ve been positive, now I am in the extreme annoyed category.

       Going to throw my conspiracy hat out there for fun… maybe Realmuto isn’t real 🙂 it’s a bone klentak is throwing us fans to hold us over as we wait to hear on BH/MM. at least a distraction. Very thoughtful klentak!

       Another day closer, but I wish it was yesterday. This is getting very old. Realmuto has injected some life into the Phils fan base lol and just more annoying rumors for all the rest.

       Can’t wait til the season starts

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92. I also think it needs to be JTR with harper or MM
    that puts together a strong positional player array
    if they are not getting MM or harper, then they probably will not be a world series contender now so keep sixto

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93. To all of you, regardless of which side you take, this has been an awesome and good spirited debate. Enjoying it thoroughly and thanks to everyone who has contributed thoughtful comments, even if we don’t agree.

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    1. I think it was a record for this offseason:

       A string of posts that didn’t mention BH or MM

       Nice job to those who made it happen!

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    2. it would be boring if we all agreed
       in this case, we wont really know who was correct for years

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94. FWIW, last night on 94WIP, MLB/Miami beat writer Joe Frisaro mentioned something I wasn’t aware of – Realmuto really runs well, forget just for a C. He’s fast.

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    1. Fastest runner of all a catchers outside of…believe it or not ROX catcher Murphy.
       Alf comes in 6th….after Nats’ Severino, Cubs’Contreras, and Jays’ Jansen

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95. I previously stated that the Phillies won’t match the competition when it comes to bidding for JTR. Anbd if the competition do not want to give up their top talent and drive JTR trade market down, I will not also give up Sixto Sanchez for that matter. I don’t even want to give up Medina or Howard as well.

    I don’t speak highly of Alfaro but I don’t view him lowly (like I view Cesar and Franco) either so an Alfaro and Enyel (of Eflin) package plus a couple of Top 30ish prospects (Parkinson, Maton) for JTR is the package I will offer to MIA.

    If Klentak wants to add offensive production on top of Seguara, Cutch and a superstar (Harper) they expected to sign —- just sign both Harper and Machado and keep Alfaro and use the prospects to acquire a top arm, I understand that Mike Trout is the ultimate target, but having both Harper and Machado is a good fallback if Mike Trout cannot be had.

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    1. It’s sounding like you may be wrong about the Phillies getting him and what they are going to pay which, I fear, will be painfully huge.

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       1. i don’t understand why you are trying to say. Basically, what I’m saying is that the rumored Sixto and Alfaro (and possibly plus) is an overpayment for JTR. The reasonable package I can offer is Alfaro and Enyel (of Eflin) package plus a couple of Top 30ish prospects (Parkinson, Maton) for JTR.

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          1. I know y’all been waiting for this, here it goes; “Don’t Included Dylan Cozens” in the Realmuto trade!

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             1. Denny…..rest easy.

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             2. I thought you liked Cozens. He would have a better chance of making the majors from their weak system.

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                1. You are right but it is like Nick Foles playing for the Giants. Better opportunity for him but you can’t cheer for opposition.

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96. For the Realmuto fans… I’ll throw a curve ball. Realmutos OPS was lower than I thought Its be but … what if the Phils switched gears from Harper and Realmuto to:

    Machado and Haniger (SEA OF). So instead of giving up sixto to MIA, they pivot and go with MM/Haniger.

    Which team would you want? Either way you can have sixto but you get to keep Alfaro on the SEA trade: Sixto,Haseley,Franco for Haniger (just humor it)

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    1. Tac3…look at splits home and away.
       OPS…away .678
       OPS.. home 848
       Give me him 60 games in CBP any day.

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    2. No Sixto to JTR so No Sixto to Hanger as well. Having Machado and Haniger will make the Phillies to RH heavy. Rather than trade Sixto, Haseley and Franco for a RH, just sign both Harper and Machado and keep Alfaro at C (trade Knapp for J2 $$, promote and develop Grullon as the defensive backstop).

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       1. Alfaro is under control for 5 years.

          Even before Klentak think of a JTR trade, the first order of business is to secure one (if not both) of Harper and Machado. Because if Klentak will miss in acquiring one (if not both) of these elite bats, JTR trade will be useless as JTR (less losing Alfaro) cannot move the needle that much.

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    3. JTR’s OPS will more than likely be considerably higher playing 81 games at CBP.

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       1. Both Harper and Macado’s OPS will skyrocket too so just sign both, keep Sixto and Alfaro and screw JTR.

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          1. I can agree with the OPS, because Realmuto was already facing WAS and NYM pitching, plus Nola. So you’d expect it to increase at CBP. Very fair point. Same for Harper. Machado was in the AL east, fair enough.

             The counter to that is that Alfaro is having growing pains against some top level pitching. Of course, if he’s in the game. I’d be interested to see his splits vs teams without 2 to 3 aces on them. Need to factor that in whendeterming how much a difference real will be over Alfaro… and how the DH will play out . I have to believe with the speculation of the DH may make the Phils jump at offering prospects vs sitting back. Every NL
             Team will now need a starting everyday player

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97. Jon Morosi says JTR to Phillies is “gaining momentum” while Craig Mish (cited by MLBTR) tweeted that he expects JTR to be dealt today. To whom isn’t clear.

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    1. Morosi also tweets that it’s not certain Sixto would be in the final deal.

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       1. O man, I hope the FO has their ducks in a line.

          We should have confidence from the Segura/Crawford trade.

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       2. What about if it’s Medina and Haseley?

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98. Of course, if I am against this trade, it will probably happen. But, I also like Alfaro, and I would not do the deal. Just want to get on the record before it actually happens. I would vote No

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    1. To soon for me, lol I need more time. Also if I was on the inside track of Sixto’s health, I’d be more confident in my decision. That said … Gun to head I do the deal, and work like hell for an extension. Harper or MM better becoming as well… and not on no short term deal.

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    2. Apparently this deal is happening which leaves open the question – what is the deal?

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99. Joel Sherman says its down to physicals and 3rd piece beyond Sixto/Alf. Seems like an overpay. Realmuto is good, but he’s clearly not going to move the dial on his own. I guess we’ll have to hope for the best.

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    1. I’m not sure I’d say it’s an overpay. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, bar none. And he’s in his prime. He’s also extremely balanced; he’s an excellent hitter and a good defender.

       That being said, and I acknowledge there’s bias here because I’m a fan, I wouldn’t include Sixto for him. If it takes Medina, Alfaro, Haseley, and some more, I bite the bullet. But Sixto is where I hang up. The front office knows more than we do, though. So I guess we’re at the same place we always are: wait and see.

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    2. it feels like a bit of an overpay- but keys on just what the Phils really feel Alfaro can be.
       it would be tough for me on some level- these are first two minor leaguers that really got my son excited watching- seeing Alfaro throw a laser and meet him after the game, standing next to Sixto watching him warm up with that effortless motion.

       but as mentioned above, Sixto has thrown so few innings, needing to build up his innings and stay injury free to really become a stud starter- how high are those percentages at this point?

       certainly wouldnt want to throw in a significant third piece- but if you do this, the Bryce thing should follow, and then probably adding Keuchel to be a veteran third starter should happen, though i really dont love that idea, but seems like it would need to happen to truly go for it now.

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100. If they include Sixto in a deal for a small upgrade at catcher

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     1. Couldn’t they have come close to approximating Realmuto’s production by keeping Ramos and pairing him with Alf?

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        1. they could have come close to and possibly surpassed realmuto’s production by letting Alfaro continue to play and enter his prime. I would be 0% shocked if within 3 years Alfaro is widely considered to be a better player than Realmuto

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           1. Salisbury says Alfaro wasn’t on field in Clearwater, yet was yesterday.

              Sounds very close. JTR is a solid player, but he isn’t Pudge in his prime. Hope another Marlin is coming back with him.

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              1. Maybe a pitcher?

                 (Looks at Marlins pitchers).

                 (Shakes head).

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              2. The length of this trade has given me significant amount of time to think and now I don’t approve. I would like to keep Alfaro.

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           2. I was an alfaro fan from the onset of the Hamels trade. At this point, I think Realmuto has another level that Alfaro can’t reach. RealmutO got his stats from roughly 120 games. If he plays some more, kicks it up a notch due to CBP and star studded lineup, what if he hits .290 40 doubles 30 hrs and an OPS in the .875 range? With much bettter defense than Alfaro, and speed on the base paths.

              I’ve been high Alfaro, but I don’t see him hitting those stats, maybe the hrs, but it will come with a ton of SO, and missed sacrifice flys.

              Lastly, I’ll say, Realmuto could have two seasons like Mike Lieberthals .300 avg 30hr seasons. That is hope I believe, and that would be worth hedging on sixto possibly.

              This lineup could get nuts soon… so nuts that maybe even kapler stops making in game subs!

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              1. Agree with the trade or not, THIS IS A STATEMENT deal to all of MLB and those indecisive FAs waiting for something to tilt their minds.

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              2. This trade isn’t about Alfaro it’s about Sixto and how many other elite prospects we have to surrender. If it’s Sixto and Medina – ugh!!!

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           3. I’m not that high on Alfaro – he’s fine and will hit with power, but has big holes in his swing and plate discipline and receiving issues – and apparently neither are the Phillies or they wouldn’t be considering this big overpay.

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        2. Yes, this was my point. I’m pretty disappointed if Sixto is included. Guys like Sixto don’t come down the pike every day, or every year or even every decade.

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           1. I would have gladly substituted Haseley and Medina for Sixto – if he is in fact included (which seems likely).

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              1. Sounds like one of Moniak, Haseley or Medina will join Sixto and Alf. Unless we take on bad salary like Chen, Prado or Castro.

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                 1. Domingo Santana.

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                 2. Heyman adds Bohm as another possibility as 3rd player in the deal.

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                 3. That’s sounds way too much. Not like I have a say but … again … could’ve resigned Ramos. I think it would have been more than good enough. Not to be a buzz kill.

                    Maybe Klentak is bored waiting for Harper and MM to make up their minds.

                    Herrera
                    Segura
                    Machado
                    Harper
                    Hoskins
                    Realmuto
                    McCutchen
                    Kingery

                    Doesn’t sound so crazy today. Even swapping MM out for Franco is crazy good lineup.

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                 4. Word is Marlins want 4 players in return. Lot of haggling going on. I’m ok with 4 players so long as top prospects are not included, like Garcia and Howard.

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101. A lot has been written about the DH in the NL lately. I don’t think it will happen for this season. If they announced it during the Winter meetings, teams would have altered their signings/trades. Presumably, the Phillies will carry a 4 man bench again. Since the back-up catcher rarely plays, it’s technically a 3 man bench, With a DH would the Phillies be more inclined to go with a 7 man bullpen and a 5 man bench?

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     1. One of the proposals was also to increase roster size to 26. But with a DH, you can shorten the pen. There’s no late game maneuverings to consider, it’s just put the pitcher on the mound that you want. So NL clubs can definitely get away with one fewer pitcher than they traditionally carry.

        I’m still morally opposed to the DH, though.

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102. Question of the day. The Phillies will be loading up the truck for Spring Training in the next day or two. Why don’t they just buy most of that stuff (plastic cups, Gatorade, etc.) in Florida?

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     1. Right? I mean they even have WaWa down there now.

        At the very least…. why not just have it drop shipped

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     2. I assume they are loading the truck with baseball equipment and not office supplies…

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        1. LOL…….you would think….oh and coconut oil.

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103. For S&G

     2021 lineup with DH

     Quinn
     Segura
     Trout (yes I said it)
     Harper
     Realmuto
     Hoskins
     McCutchen
     Bohm
     Kingery

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104. I’m fine with Sixto being in the deal (As long as he’s not paired w Medina or Howard). I’d prefer he wasn’t however he hasn’t proved anything yet, including staying healthy. JTR has already proven at the highest of levels that he’s AN ALL STAR!!!! The odds of Sixto even being league average are prob below 40%, just a random number but prob true.

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     1. Yeah, but what you say is always true when you trade an established player for a prospect. Sixto isn’t just any prospect.

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        1. Yes but JTR isn’t just an established player. He’s one of the best at his position in all of baseball. And you have him for 2 years, more than enough time to extend (or attempt to). Also if they can get Harper or Machado while using Sixto towards another all star, their deadline will look a lot better.

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105. Matt Breen heard that Sixto had recently fallen out of favor with the front office, not due to injury bug but due to conditioning or lack thereof. Might be telling of his work habits as well, IMO.

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     1. Yeah, his medical reports and personal habits are things we simply don’t know. I think Howard coming on is a big factor in this too.

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        1. I agree. Will know early on if Howard should jump to the top of the untouchable list.

           This is a much much better deal than earlier reported. Very surprised the bleeding stopped after Alfaro from tracking the reports. If a fish fan, I’d be upset based off those reports. Keeping Howard, Haseley, Medina, Bohm, Moniak, JoJo, and Garcia is a big win for the FO

           I wonder if the Phils are high enough on Irvin and Medina breakthrough soon, to let go of sixto

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106. I’ll go on the record as not being a fan of a deal that includes Sixto and Alfaro but I’m really not a fan of the deal if the 3rd piece of the deal includes some of the other names being mentioned (Medina, Haseley, Moniak, Garcia, Howard, Bohm).

     Giving up a young ML caliber catcher, their #1 pitching prospect, and another top-10 prospect would be a significant fail…

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     1. If giving up Sixto, I believe you gotta keep Howard. Fits the timeline

        If signing Harper, trading 1 of Moniak,Haseley,Cornelius … is doable… to me it really hurts, which means it probably can get it done. They are now saying 4 players, better be something coming back past Realmuto is that’s the case.

        I’m wondering if the team has seen Eickhoff and others (Irvin, efflin, VV, eschelmen, etc) and feel they’ll be ok with giving up Sixto.
        It’ll hurt but … there is already a log jam for a team
        Looking to compete now,
        Especially if they sign Kuechel

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107. I think one that is being overlooked by everyone is Realmoto’s Home/Away splits. Right off the bat he is a .310 career hitter out of the marlins stadium. He also had 16 homeruns total the last 3 years at home as opposed to 33 on the road. There is a reason all these marlins hitters are doing well after they leave. Here’s a link to the splits for anyone who want’s to view them. https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=11739&position=C&season=0

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     1. Nope – most of us know. That’s why we are only upset at them including Sixto in the deal and not freaking out.

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108. Like mostly everyone else here, I’m holding my breath on 3rd and 4th pieces in the trade. But my takeaway is that regardless, this is Klentak saying that the Phillies are all in for 2019. This is his 4th year under contract and this may be the hill he lives or dies on. Signing Harper isn’t the litmus test for him. Deals like these, however, are. But acquiring JTR at a painful cost in young talent is saying “we are no longer rebuilding…we are contending”. And this deal doesn’t happen unless Macharper is the next order of business.

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     1. Agreed, this is an appetizer trade

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109. Per Jon Heyman – the big new proposed rules changes – DH in the NL, 3-batter min – very unlikely to be implemented soon.

     That echoes several people on here who estimated 2020 for the the start of these rules.

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110. Trading for Realmuto screams “win now”. So I assume that Klentak is on the hot seat and there is some pressure for the Phillies to make the playoffs.

     Realmuto will turn 28 in March, and he’s coming off a 4.3 WAR season. He’s under control for 2 more years. He can flat out hit.

     Sixto is a talent, but he only pitched in 8 games last year and there’s always talk about a person his size throwing that hard. If he stayed in the system, he would likely spend at least 2 more years in the minors. If the Phillies have soured on him, this is a classic example of selling high. Note that when Ruben was trading all our prospects to keep the window open, most of the them busted out. And Carlos Carrasco only got good at age 27, 6 years after the Phillies traded him.

     So I’m ok with Sixto and Alfaro for JT. The other players better be filler.

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     1. If Klentak is in “WIN NOW” mode – he should just sign Harper and Machado.

        Checking is on JTR is just Klentak doing his due diligence considering that other top bidder are not overpaying and the JTR price is trending down.

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        1. I have said previously that there’s a difference between spending money and spending crazy money. Or maybe his interpretation of crazy money is a lot different than ours.

           I do think it’s an overpay, but not as much as you think since we’re getting 2 years of JT. And I have serious doubts about Sixto’s health.

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           1. The Harper and Machado trade significantly declined already so the crazy money as initially projected is not that crazy anymore. Middleton possibly doesn’t know baseball as much but he knows how to be savvy when in comes to money and market.

              Cole Hamels was deemed to be “injuy prone” during his minor years (only 226.2 IP) but he turned out to be one of the most durable SP with the Phillies and entire. If Sixto is a 23-24, then I will be concerned with his health. But Sixto is only 20 yo and he throws almost without effort.

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111. Well, it sounds as if the deal is happening today. There is a major leaker in the Marlins FO. It makes a lot of sense for them to get player names out there. Howard, Garcia, have apparently been discussed as a 3rd or 4th prospect. So have Haseley and Moniak. If they are going up a package of sixto, Alfaro, Moniak, and Howard … first I’ll flip, it sounds like a tremendous overpay. If this is the case, Realmuto better come with an extension.
     I’m just going to wait to see the final details before overreact.

     Hopefully will know tonight.

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     1. Not to spread rumors, but the above was mentioned on Mlbtraderumors latest update plus CSNPhilly

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     2. I’d be fine with Alfaro/Sixto/Moniak/Williams.
        I don’t think Moniak will ever amount to anything. Williams in my opinion will end up being a 4th OFer (Ben fransisco ish).
        I might ask for something else w Realmuto . . . Maybe a prospect that they’ve soured on who the Phillies like. Or even money.

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        1. I would rather not give up on Moniak just yet. Substitute Dylan Cozens or Cole Irvin, I would be ok with that.

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        2. That proposal sounds pretty painful to me. I’m tying not to overvalue the prospects for a proven Allstar catcher in his prime … but that still seems like an overpay.

           Will just have to wait and hold our breathe. I’m not going to check back in until 7pm, so hopefully then the final deal is confirmed. I almost get the feeling thdi could fall through becaus the ask from the Marlins feels high

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112. It’s official! Jim Bowden reports that Sixto, Alfaro, and two other prospects are headed to Miami.

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     1. Will Stewart is one of the others

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        1. and the 4th “prospect” is actually int’l pool money

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113. I just heard word that it’s Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and international bonus slot. If Realmuto becomes an all-star and Sanchez becomes less than an ace, it’s a reasonable deal. If Sanchez becomes Pedro-like, it’s a disaster. We shall see.

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     1. FYI – I know Realmuto was an all-star last year – I’m saying if he continues to play like an all-star.

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     2. I think Medina is Sixto’s replacement. Will Stewart is replaceable with about 8 other pitchers in organization. Alfaro might be Ozzie Virgil.

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114. Philadelphia and Miami are in agreement on a trade that would send All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies for catcher Jorge Alfaro, pitching prospects Sixto Sanchez and Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot, league sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.

     — Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 7, 2019

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     1. While I initially said that including Sixto is an overpayment, the Phillies management knows more than I do. Maybe the health issues with Sixto has some weight into it that’s why the Phillies management is willing to move him.

        Sixto is the only one that stings, the rest of the trade package is acceptable.

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        1. Realmuto is also going to be a major boost to pitching staff.

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           1. Amen……Alf let 70 runners reach RISP indirectly thru PBs errors, and WPs that he could not block…Arrieta and Seranthony oevr 15 between them…they will miss him as a friend I am sure…..but as a catcher……they hope he does well in Miami.

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     2. it is more surprising to me that HOU, SD and ATL did not overbid considering the farm system that they have.

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        1. Agreed, but this happens a lot imo. Teams ask too much, and eventually pass on the 2nd tier best offers to the 1st tier of a lower level farm

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     3. Phillies will send the $250k IFA $$ they obtained by trading their Rule 5 slot.

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115. Who is Will Stewart?

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     1. To ask the question is to answer it – he’s a lower level prospect with a glimmer of upside. No big deal in a trade like this.

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     2. Stewart was my #22 prospect. He is a 21 year old LHP. Fastball up to 94, solid changeup, workable slider. Weird arm angle guy who gets a ton of ground balls but doesn't miss many bats. Potential backend starter with LH RP fallback. Was with Lakewood last year https://t.co/YXCrPrwMF0

        — Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) February 7, 2019

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116. Now that they’ve committed these resources, the Phillies should extend Realmuto now. Give him a raise, buy out three years of free agency, and move on to the next thing. As sad as I am about losing Sixto (and I am!) Realmuto is a very good player and may have star potential.

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     1. i agree. If Middleton doesn’t intend to sign both Harper and Machado, make a play to have JTR at least 5 years under control.

        I may not like giving up Sixto to acquire JTR, he is now a Phillie – I support and root for anybody who plays for the red pin stripes!

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117. But what if Sixto becomes the next legend to leave Phillies? Like Drabek, Singleton, Donald, May, and Cardenas!?!?

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     1. jeffkelly…..exactly. And if by June he needs TJ, that means the Marlins will be in a little pickle with their 40 with him come 2020.
        Will Stewart could be a very serviceable rotation piece in 3/4 years with his control and GB%….a lot like Kuechel but with a lot better velo.

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        1. The odds of Stewart being even an average MLB player has to be under 10%. He’s a lotto ticket.

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           1. Exactly. If they were willing to live without Sixto I’d give them 10 Will Stewarts – no offense.

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           2. Guru/catch……perhaps….but then again I saw that take before….when Moyer had little chance coming out of St Joe as a 6th round from a no name baseball college back in the 80s..

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              1. Moyer had to pitch into mid 40s to get ring.

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                 1. But he pitched for over 20 years….must have been doing something right.

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                 2. The old “innings burner”. Everyone of these pitchers with this notation have Phillies on their baseball cards.

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        2. Look at Kilome… he was a sixto a few years ago.

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           1. Okay, stop there, Kilome was NEVER Sixto. Not even close.

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     2. Or Ryne Sandberg?

        Devils advocate, but yeah chances are it works out for us fans

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     3. Well yea, the odds are always in favor of the prospect not making it since most prospects fail. he other side of that coin is the potential loss of cheap, young star players in exchange for 2-years.

        Time will tell which way this deal goes but for now, the Phillies are better.

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118. Hate seeing Sixto go, but I have already said my piece. I am now rooting for JTR to make the All Star team again. I don’t think they make this trade unless they know we are getting one of the big 2. However, I have a friend who is as big a fan as I am, and his sense is that this is to modify the disappointment of not getting one of them. 2 different readings of the same situation.

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119. Sign Harper and this is the lineup:

     1. Segura SS
     2. Realmuto C
     3. Harper RF
     4. Hoskins 1B
     5. Hererra CF
     6. Franco 3B
     7. McCutchen LF
     8. Pitcher
     9. Hernandez/Kingery 2B

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     1. Franco for Strahm. Sign Moose.

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120. I’m now genuinely excited about having JT in the lineup!

     Especially in this new normal, players might be more inclined to take a long term deal now than wait for FA. I would definitely give him 4 years, $70M and see if he bites. It doesn’t sound like much but note that best case, he’s making $14M in his last year of arbitration.

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     1. Well, now it’s done and having looked at Realmuto’s offensive and defensive numbers (especially defensive numbers and hitting away from Miami) and having been impressed with him every time I’ve seen him play, I’m going to be pulling for him like crazy because he may have some true big star potential that remains untapped.

        Was this an overpay? Yeah, I think it was to an extent. Was it a crazy, reckless Amaro-like overpay? Time will tell, but I don’t think it was. They traded two big prospects this winter – Crawford and Sanchez – and got two really, really good, prime of their career major league players (Realmuto and Segura). How can I really complain about that – especially if they also sign a guy like Harper or Machado? I can’t – on paper at least it’s a good outcome and they didn’t gut the entire farm system – far from it. I can live with this risk although I do hate losing Sixto.

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        1. Didn’t you just say last week or earlier this week ….you were tired of seven years of futility.
           Well looks like it may come to an end.

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           1. Yeah, it’s a bit of an overpay, but I just said I’m fine with the trade if you read my post. They’ve improved this team a ton without gutting the system. It’s a fair trade off.

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              1. Understand….comes down to Sixto’s reaching his potential.
                 And if Alf can ever better his defense and make more contact.
                 That is the risky part of it.

                 Though if you were in Klentak’s shoes….no risk….his contract is up next year…..he cannot afford any more of the losing….or he is gone.
                 He still has Kapler’s dark smoke surrounding him lately…so he needs to make moves now.

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        2. In many ways, I think the emergence of Howard, and to a lesser extent Medina, made this trade possible. They could sacrifice Sixto knowing they had other high end farms in the pipeline.

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           1. LOL – arms. This is what happens when the words arm and farm system run simultaneously through one’s head.

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121. jeffkelly, your statement is correct that all of those traded prospects did not amount to much. And Sixto may very well fail. But, we have to believe in some prospects some time, or why care about Phuture Phillies?

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122. Not sure if this has been posted but Matt Gelb says that JTR is expected to entertain extension talks. That is huge. Smart guidance would suggest he explore that in light of the trending free agent market.

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     1. And if so, 👍👍👍👍to Klentak!

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     2. With Harper almost a certainty at this point, he wants to get his done

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     3. Yes, if he’s willing to sign an extension then the deal gets better…

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123. Is the J2 money for this year? I would think so. That would leave us with around 750k

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     1. ;That would leave us with around 750k’…only for another 5 months, then it goes up….but will still lose some with the Harper signing as a QO.

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124. God Damn this line up is gonna be fun to watch!! ESP after adding Harper or Machado. Let’s hope this pushes Harper to us sooner, he’s a HUGE JTR fan. I don’t see this as an overpay at all. Hate to lose Sixto but the odds are just against him, cash him in for one of, if not the best catcher in baseball.

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     1. EricD…Pecota has Phillies at 84 wins, 4th place…..BUT before today and harper.

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        1. Haven’t been this excited since Jroll labeled them the team to beat as their run started. What’s crazy is the big fish (or fish) still hasn’t been caught and there will also be trades after that. It’s weird to say but the team today could look really different than the team on opening day. Could still add 2 more positional starters (3B and OF).

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125. Great trade! As soon as I heard the Phillies were back in the talks, I knew it would happen. Go get Harper.

     What strikes me as odd – williams wasnt included. I read Marlins were high on him. Do Phillies not trade him because they know Harper isnt coming? Or is there another deal around Williams in the works?

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126. Wow …. blanking wow. KLENTAK just raised Elton Brand, Roseman, and Fletcher.

     Huge move, i sense it will workout for them.
     I haven’t checked yet …. but I’m very curious to see Realmutos numbers against the Mets&Nats aces. Hopefully he rakes against a few of them, if so, losing Sixto isnt as bad. Now we need to root against Alfaro developing further and Sixto moving to the pen. Sorry, That’s the way my fandom runs

     UTroll – how does that make you feel about getting Harper now? Should be checking Harpers twitter feed for reaction.

     Harper be dumb as hell to sign elsewhere

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     1. makes me think if they have Harper in lineup that that their starting lineup will hit at least 170 HRs. NUTS.
        Thats not counting their bench.

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        1. Yeah, I think 170 might be a bit low… probably 190 minimum

           Going to be a fun year. With the team ramped up, out of the rebuild phase and the division competition as high as I’ve ever seen it, I’ll be watching a lot of baseball this year

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           1. Yep, I agree. I was guessing low side for 170, but 190 is doable

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127. If klentak keeps this up … Hoskins isn’t going to have any friends left on the team!

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     1. He likes Harper…

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128. Great trade I wanted Realmuto for awhile. Cant wait to see why the Phillies where willing to trade Sixto.

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     1. Tim….Phillies are not going to give any disparaging reasons why Sixto was included, that stays in house…if there are actually any detractions..

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        1. Yes, leave that to me.

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           1. Be tactful.

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           2. You’re a riot, Jim. I do recall your less than enthusiastic take on Sixto a while back.

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129. I’m all about the known vs the unknown. Losing Sixto hurts, but we really don’t know what his potential is. Alfaro is a work in progress. JTR is the best catcher in MLB and is in his prime. If they work out an extension, then this is a serious win for the Phils

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130. Da faq is going on??? Elton Brand just raises Klentak, trade Markelle Fultz! Like 20 mins after the Realmuto trade
     Lmao

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     1. As I take the long view, the Phillies did this very deliberately and their plan continues to be a good one. Their biggest issue is whether their talent evaluation is good enough, but their plan is good and it’s always been good.

        On Elton Brand – we still have no idea if he knows what he is doing or not in terms of the long term health of the franchise. I’m never a fan of sell low trades and that’s just what they did with Markelle Fultz. We may not know for a couple of years if Brand is any good or not. It’s easy to shake Sam Hinkie’s asset piggy bank dry (although he had a healthy assist from Eddie Muenster – a/k/a Brian Colangelo) and spend Josh Harris’s money.

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        1. True, but FA should now be bwtttee attracted to Philly. Hopefully Reddick stays and they add. All Philly teams are up and running, that includes the flyers. They finally have a goaltender!!!

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131. Opening day lineup
     Segura ss
     Harper lf
     Hoskins 1b
     Moustakas 3b
     Realmuto c
     Herrera cf
     McCutchen rf
     Hernandez 2b
     Nola p

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     1. 8mark…..Matt Klentak still may have a few moves to go with that projected lineup…close to the bottom.

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        1. Oh, Romus – from your lips to God’s ears. Cesar to KC for a bag of balls….okay, make it 2 bags.

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     2. who says you need to develop a core of good young players to be competitive? Only need a Hoskins and a Nola and then trade for or pay for everyone else haha. But, dang, whatever works, right? Fired up to see JTR surrounded by solid hitters up and down this re-vamped lineup; he’s been getting better in each of the past two seasons and could really be lining up to bust out with a career year, hitting in and around Hoskins and (hopefully) Harper. the season’s almost here boys! just that last big addition to make!

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132. Fair trade IMO although I would not have done it. An extension of course would make it a lot better. That said if they don’t get one of the big two we’ll all be scratching our heads.

     Who knows maybe they shock the world and get us both MM and BH at which point we are an immediate WS contender.

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     1. Hell, signing both will make us a freakin’ juggernaut, and Klentak will be MLB executive of the year before one pitch has been thrown in anger.

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        1. Sign harper to a long term deal. Give MM a 2 year pillow contract. In 2 years will be ready for Trout and our new #1 prospect will be ready to man 3rd … (Hopefully)

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133. Hinkie has been strangely quiet today. Must be working on the Harper deal. He mentioned last night that Bryce should sign by next week. Maybe today’s activity moved that up some?

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134. Before I get to the trade, let me bring you up to date on the past two days down here.

     First, the most recent sign that ST is just a week away

     Spring training is just around the corner as they set up the souvenir stand at the Complex. pic.twitter.com/wGQgz1s0n2

     — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 6, 2019

     Then this announcement yesterday (Wednesday)

     Jorge Alfaro has joined the group in Clearwater.

     — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 6, 2019

     Larry Bowa arrived in Clearwater this week. During a conversation on the field with Andrew McCutchen, he was heard to ask, “Do you prefer left or right field?”. It sounded like McCutchen’s deadpan response was, “I’m a center fielder”.

     9:00 AM this morning

     Hoskins is in da House! Rhys Hoskins has arrived at the Complex in Clearwater for pre-ST workouts

     — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 7, 2019

     Cole Irvin’s in town too.

     Cole Irvin's first mound session in Clearwater. pic.twitter.com/mjkV2chUkg

     — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 7, 2019

     By 11:00AM, after noticing that somebody was absent.

     I don't know if this means anything, but Jorge Alfaro was noticeably missing from this morning's workout.

     — jim peyton (@jimpeyton19) February 7, 2019

     I also noticed that Gabe Kapler was on the phone during the morning. Listening, not speaking. When the players split up for BP, he took Alec Bohm aside and spoke with him as he walked him over to Schmidt Field for BP. A field where fan access is at the lowest. I think he was letting the kid know that his name came up in trade talks.

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     1. I hope McCutchen”s comment was in jest. He moped when the Pirates took him out of centerfield. I would assume his position was made clear during negotiations.

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135. Hope this trade works out. I’ll be rooting for JTR.
     I was never against trading Sixto, I just was more willing to deal him for a younger, longer controlled player (I proposed sending Sixto and a few other prospects to Tampa for Blake Snell last offseason). Hopefully, the team feels confident in their ability to extend Realmuto’s contract.
     The guy I’m really going to miss is Jorge Alfaro. I believe he’s going to continue to grow into a premier defensive catcher, and I think the Phillies could have become a championship team with him behind the plate.

     That said, there’s no question JTR can be an offense force in the Phillies lineup. Just as importantly, Bryce Harper is on record as saying he’d like to play with Realmuto. It’s hard to imagine Harper turning down stupid money, and the chance to play with Rhys Hoskins, JTR, and eventually Mike Trout.

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     1. @HInkie, I agree with you. While I initially said that I’m cold on the Snell trade scenario, I did said a numbers of times that if Sixto will be traded, it should be for a arm.

        I can see Pivetta having a breakout in 2019 and some arms (i.e. Gowdy, Pipkin, Morales) in the farm will take a step forward to lessen the impact of losing Sixto Sanchez.

        Will Stewart is expendable since there are a lot of prospects in the low minors with profile similar to Stewart.

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136. JTR happened! Harper next week. Then Moustakis. Machado to White Sox but Phils say here’s 15% more to play for us plus we are now favorites and you get to play ss for 2 years.

     DH next year. Sign Cerevelli. Assign JTR 3 SP and 2 SP to Cerevelli. They alternate DH/ c

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137. I don’t honestly believe this but one scout compare Stewart to a young Chris Sale…..

     Early consensus of people I've surveyed is that the #Marlins did well here. Had one scout compare Stewart to a young Chris Sale. Both Sanchez & Alfaro are works in progress, though with incredible tools. Sanchez has worked under 200 IP in a 3-year career, so he's tough to project

     — Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 7, 2019

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     1. Yeah, a young Chris sale should have made the top 100, shouldn’t he?

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138. And now the trade.

     It is not uncommon for fans to overvalue their prospects. It becomes increasingly difficult to gauge value when they don’t have all the pertinent facts. Let me help.

     I like the trade. Two years of JT Realmuto is enticing. It only makes sense that Jorge Alfaro would be included in the trade – catcher for catcher plus. Now, the two years is a drawback and JTR was unwilling to sign an extension with the Marlins, who can blame him. But, as we learned afterward, and I’m sure the Phillies new beforehand, JTR is willing to an extension now.

     The Plus is what we all were worried about. Sixto’s name was part of the trade from the get-go it seems. We already know that the Phillies were open to dealing him to Seattle in a deal that would have included Diaz. But why would they be willing to move their top pitching prospect?

     Maybe because he wasn’t going to remain that for long. I believe they were unhappy with the condition in which he arrived last spring. Perhaps that had something to do with the elbow problem that sidelined him. He appeared to get thick around the middle during his rehab. His secondary pitches weren’t progressing along a developmental path that they had expected. With a poorer pitch repertoire they were seriously considering moving him to the bullpen. Seriously. The collarbone that kept him out of the AFL was probably fiction to maintain the myth of his TOR status. I believe that they may have planned on trade high as early as last summer. A #1 prospect who moves to the bullpen loses value quickly.

     I think they may have sold high.

     Stewart is a ground ball machine. He had A 3.07 go/fo in 2017 and a 2.42 in 2018. He has a low 90s FB that he can get up to 93-94 mph. I was looking forward to seeing him with the Threshers this season. He probably has a ceiling of a #4 though.

     The $250K in international money is the lowest amount that you can trade, I believe. And, I think it has to be moved in $250K chunks. (I’m not 100% on this.)

     I think the Phillies may have done well here. if JTR extends, then I’m sure they did. Note that JTR has an Arb year in 2020 and is a FA in 2021, his age 30 season. Difficult for a catcher to get a good contract at that age. I think he will be open to signing an extension.

     Other names under consideration were Kingery, Medina, Haseley, Bohm, Romero, Howard, Young …

     Personally, I like all the players involved, but Stewart and some international $$ instead of one of the guys in the paragraph above? Well done, Matt.

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     1. Once again, quite a mouthful, Jim. Great stuff and very encouraging as a Phillies fan. Thanks

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     2. @Jim – appreciate the insight . I was wondering about the whispers of Sixto to the bullpen. That make greases the trade differently for me.

        I’m looking forward to a lot of your player update this spring, for me, any early news on Eickhoff’s velocity returning/early impressions is very much welcomed.

        Love this site.

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     3. BTW, Stewart was #27 in the Readers’ Poll.

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     4. I agree. I am fine with the trade. But the one thing that I don’t understand is that they continue to break the “grow the arms, buy the bats” mantra with their #1 draft picks and trades. I would much rather have given Bohm, Moniak or Haseley. Actually, I would have given 2 of those 3 instead of Sixto.

        But I do also think that this trade only makes sense if they get Harper or Machado. This team as it stands now is not going to the playoffs. They need another elite bat and another good (not elite, but good) starting pitcher IMO.

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        1. Hopefully Cole Irvin shows us something in ST so we feel comfortable in him as our LH SP.

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139. Thanks for the insights Jim. Great stuff.

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140. We now have three new professional quality hitters in the starting lineup. Harper would make four. The swing and miss parade should come to a halt,

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141. I liked Alfaro, and wish him well. I didn’t believe that catcher was a major need to upgrade, but Klentak has anyway. Realmuto’s offense is where I’d hoped that Alfaro’s would be in a couple of years. As for Sixto, I worried about the injuries, and feared that he could be a Tommy John candidate in the future. It’s a good day to be a Phillies fan. PLAY BALL!

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     1. Catcher is very important to the pitching staff and I think our pitching staff is doing the mummers strutt since they heard sbout the trade.

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142. One of the reasons I’m pleased with the trade is that we didn’t give up a second blue chip prospect. Sixto, Alfaro and say Bohr or Medina would have been too much, in my opinion . Even if Sixto pans out, it was the right thing to do at the time.

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143. When I heard Howard’s name being mentioned, I was worried. By my count the Phillies have upgraded LF, 1B, SS, and C. Next up is RF. Make it happen Matt.

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     1. Wawa….could the Phillies actually be thinking now of bringing back Franco for at least another year or more at third base?

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        1. I’m thinking we may have to rethink Franco and Cehe’s value to the team with the impending DH change coming to the NL. Yes, it’s not offical, but I believe it is basically a definite at this point.

           The Phillies could still sign Mous and hide Franco till next year on the bench.

           It should
           Change the way we few them, plus the prospects trying to break through
           Franco,Cehe, Williams,Altherr, Quinn, Cozens, Kingery,Haseley all sort of play into the Role. It will be interesting how teams try to fill the “position”

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        2. Romus – I never thought that Franco would be the “Main” piece, but I’ve always wondered how good he could be if he were surrounded by other good hitters. I never could understand his defensive metrics either. He’s one of the best that I’ve seen on swinging bunts, chasing down foul pop ups, and he’s got a strong, accurate arm. We can live with him for now, and decide at the deadline whether to keep him or not.

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           1. And he does not strike out much. Just 13.3% in 2018, 15.5% in his career.

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           2. I agree, I’d take him for another year. I thought his attitude and demeanor had changed for the good right before he took that head first dive into the dugout. That was pretty much the end of the season for him.

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              1. That’s why he’ll continue to get chances. He has power and makes contact. Just a matter of well I dunno what it’s a matter of . . . But he’ll get chances bc of that combo.
                 (And imo doesn’t play a horrible 3B, I don’t care what the metrics say, he’s not “bad” defensively)

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144. This is why I love this site, and all of you I am sure agree. I based my affection for Sixto on his TOR status. He was our #1 prospect, and I dreamed of Pedro 2.0. I stated I had no information about his health or the ailment that sidelined him for most of the year. What I do have is faith in Jim’s access to the team, his knowledge of what goes on around Clearwater and ST, and the information he provides us. After reading his post, I am fully behind the deal. I am not being wishy washy. I simply trust that if Jim tells us something, that it is true or very close to the truth. I liked Alfaro and his tools and what he could become. But JTR is already that. So, thank you Jim, as always, for maintaining this site, that I spend way too much time on, and thank you for the information you bring us.

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145. I know this is a Phillies site, and we’re all excited about the moves the Phils are making, but just have to say, RIP to one of my favorites, Frank Robinson. One of the elites. That is all. Thanks.

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     1. Agree…..his numbers are exceptional and he seem not to ever get the great recognition he should have received.
        So him in LF in ’61 at Yankees Stadium in the WS…Vada in CF…wish i was old enough to appreciate that time.

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     2. Robinson had two HOF careers, One with the Reds, and the other with the Orioles.

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146. As one who was critical of the idea of acquiring JTR for prospects I am willing to admit that he is a welcome addition and I am fully aware he will be another professional hitter in the lineup. My concern was – why go through the pain of a rebuild over years to have a group of those nuggets of that lousy period be swapped for one player who would wear the pin stripes for only 2 years ? It is sort of difficult to give up the dream of seeing Alf and Sanchez mature into true gems – but maybe not, too ?? In the end it was a more than fair trade – and we really exchanged catchers, one very promising pitcher, and a young pitcher with an unusual throwing motion which may have caused him to over achieve. It could have been alot worse – and any realization that JTR could be extended would make it a very good deal for the Phightin’s. I’m sure we’ll be happy with better defense, more power, great speed, and a quality hitter – despite giving up those dreams.

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147. RU

     Very well said. Agree completely.

     Now if we are able to get BH signed – – a really big if – – we should have the most formidable lineup in the National League.

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148. Jim Bowden (in the Atlantic https://theathletic.com/806153/2019/02/07/bowden-grading-the-phillies-and-the-marlins-on-the-j-t-realmuto-trade/ ) and Keith Law (ESPN http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25947673/did-miami-get-enough-realmuto-all-hinges-sixto-sanchez ) have added their two cents on the Phillies trade for JT Realmuto.

     Bowden gives the Phillies an “A”, and praised Matt Klentak for not surrendering a second high-end prospect. Bowden says Realmuto is a .300/.380/.500 type hitter with 25-28 HR’s playing in CBP. Bowden also says JTR has great make-up, is smart and is a flat-out winner. He’ll also help convince BH/MM the Phillies mean business in trying to win. Bowden gave the Marlins a B+. He says Miami did better for JTR than they did in their previous deals for Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich. He claims Sixto is one of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball, and was the best prospect offered from any of the other clubs interested in Realmuto.

     Law says JTR is a 2 win upgrade over Alfaro, with the potential for more. He also says Miami got a fair return for their all star catcher. Law has always liked Sanchez. However, Law does warn that he has had executives express concerns over Sixto’s elbow and his shoulder, and there’s just the general industry skepticism of any short RHSP. Law had Stewart as the Phillies #11 prospect before the trade.

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149. Wasn’t Sanchez a shortstop growing up and started pitching late? If that’s the case, maybe he just never had a “pitcher’s mentality” when it comes to the position and how to take care of his body. Chances are, he may never develop as a top notch pitcher.

     I’ll really miss Alfaro. I was very happy when he came over in the Hamels trade. Was pulling for him. He is a really tough kid. Was constantly getting nicked up with batted balls but he always kept picking himself up and playing through it. Is truly a 100%er.

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     1. Agreed on Alfaro. He was a gamer and was fun to watch, particularly gunning down runners at second and trying to pick up extra bases on the basepaths.

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150. Hinkie – agree – Law was the one of national scouts/reviewers that was more positive on Sixto than others. That is why I found his analysis somewhat surprisingly “evenly” biased to slightly in the Phillies camp. He has consistently said that Sixto was arguably the best minor league arms – yet in this review, he backs off somewhat. Maybe he is changing his mind to some small extent ? Given his bias, the Phillies did well…..based upon his take. But then my take on Law is – he is favorably inclined towards the Phils and sees them as an organization that tries very hard to do it right – my reading between the lines.

     Time for a Cal-Dreaming update to get us off the wall and back on the couch !!!

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     1. I was about to ask for a CD update. He’s been quiet. Interested to know what Harpers friend has been saying.

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     2. Isn’t it the responsibility of a team to market their prospects in order to sell high? I think the Braves use this method to great results. Think they got Fred McGriff using this marketing strategy.

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151. LOL at Andrew McCutchen !!!

     @JTRealmuto welcome to the @Phillies bro! Now we will have time to discuss this😭 pic.twitter.com/J0bUslnHXL

     — Andrew McCutchen (@TheCUTCH22) February 8, 2019

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     1. that is truly unbelievable vertical leap by Cutch. what an athlete. insane hops.

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152. Just a heads up. Since we have lost two of our Readers’ top thirty in the Realmuto trade, I’ll move everybody up and continue with two more polls.

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     1. Excited to see the Oklahoma kid play in KC! I need to get my tickets for the Royals series. He almost went to OSU in Stillwater but opted for the Marlins after getting drafted and taking the $700k sign on bonus.

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     2. Jim – I always considered Sixto at 1A, and Medina at 1B. Do you think that, with this trade, the Phillies are looking for a different type of backup catcher. I liked A J Ellis because I felt that Alfaro needed a mentor. That has changed now.

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        1. Wawa, 35 year old Drew Butera was signed to a minor league contract with ST invite. I doubt the Phillies will go after a higher end backup with any anticipation of starting more than 25 or 30 games, barring injury.

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        2. I don’t believe they were ever looking for a backup catcher. Remember, just because we identify certain needs for the Phillies doesn’t mean that they see the same needs.

           In spite of what fans think of Knapp, they love him. He’s a good team mate. He’s a positive leader in the club house. Imagine a young Darren Dalton in that respect. He’s one of a couple young guys who polices the club house.

           It’s these intangibles that endear him to the organization. BTW, he’s another guy who’ll be taking a first baseman’s mitt to camp – Hoskins, Knapp, Cozens, Listi, McBride. That’s why Hall wasn’t invited, not enough reps to go around. They think he’ll be better off at the Complex in minor league camp..

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153. pic.twitter.com/9Qmn9RQYIX

     — Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) February 7, 2019

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154. .@JimBowdenGM really likes the trade between the #Phillies and #Marlins for @JTRealmuto.

     "This guy is going to be like Yelich." pic.twitter.com/SHm2LPnYTy

     — MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 8, 2019

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155. Can’t site the source (thought it might be CBS Sports?) but I heard from someone earlier today that the Phillies have 8 year offers on the table for both Harper and Machado. Can anyone verify that report?

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156. The Phils and Sixers both pushing all-in at the same time is pretty wild. If either isn’t among the final four in their respective sports the next few years, I’ll be disappointed.

     Next moves for the Phils?
     * Sign Harper to play OF
     * Dangle Williams + prospects (preferably position players such as Haseley/Moniak/Bohm — but definitely not Luis Garcia) for a very good starting pitcher (perhaps one of the Indians starters?)
     * Keep Franco if Machado doesn’t sign — unless he gets you a very good starting pitcher.
     * Hang on to your pitching prospects: With all the payroll that’s going to be going into the lineup in the next few years, they’re going to have to save money wherever they can. A crop of young starters headlined by Medina/Howard/Romero would be a huge benefit in this area.

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     1. Also develop cost controlled bullpen pieces so no money needs to spent on hunters or niastaks.

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        1. The Phillies have close to 45 mil on the books in removable salary

           Neshek, Hunter, Niasco, Franco,Cehe, Herrera, and some other odd pieces

           Bohm can replace Franco at somepoint. Kingery needs to replace Cehe, and young arms need to be switched in for those BP pieces or lesss expensive ones

           This also doesn’t account for the 25 mil that comes off the books with Arrietta in 2 years, Nola has that basically wrapped up thought.

           They should be good to navigate the cap. All that losing was good for us, the depth will come in Waves

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     2. Robbie Ray may be a viable trade-for candidate.

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157. More and more I see them starting the season with current rotation, evaluating their current starters and trading for a starter if need be

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     1. I agree. There should be more attractive SP targets at the deadline.

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     2. Sr….look for JTR to make the Three Musketeers of ViVe, Efl and Pivetta into more dependable starters..I would not be surprised their ave/innings per game goes into 6 vs their current 5 or so..
        Also, I think there is a possibility Matt K. tries to get Robbie Ray from the DBacks.
        That could be costly however

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        1. I would trade for Ray if you could get him for say, Williams, VV and Irvin.

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           1. Sr…that I would do…and assume that would appeal to them
              Ray has two years , like JTR, of control and is only 27 in his prime….with positive WAR over the last 4 years.

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     3. A few ways to look at this. This could still upgrade SP in FA, but I think they ride with what they have, especially if Harper signs. The boost in offense and the bullpen allows them to slow play the Field. The boost of confidence/relatation this offsense should give the SP is huge. If they give up early leads, the team should feel they can win every game (assuming Harper). Top that with a step forward from Pivetta and one of Efflin or VV and the SP is more than fine to ride till the deadline. I really believe Eickhoff will reemerge as his nerve issue in his throwing arm is now corrected. Irvin will be ready to spot start if needed, maybe more if VV is moved to the pen.

        My only issue of waiting til the deadline is the potential prospect cost, which is always more at the deadline. If they get a controllable Ace, go for it, no rentals FOR our prospects. They need sustain the window, and they can’t drain the system in year 1 of the window.

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        1. With all the moves and money spent/to spend, we’re going to wait and see? Let’s go get Keuchel at lower deal in March and feel satisfied. No need to skimp now and pay a premium later.

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158. I have to commend Klentak on selling high on Sixto. Despite what many here have expressed, the organization obviously didn’t have the same impression of him. And I really think the Real Deal will be a beast at CBP. And with Matt Gelb citing two inside sources indicating a favorable outcome in extending JTR, I am very encouraged by this trade. I will miss Alfaro and I do think a fine career is ahead, but now is the time.

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159. Early in the offseason there was much anxiousness about Klentak missing out on some early signings and trades. I always encourage patience and I gotta say I continue to respect what Klentak has done so far this offseason, and I believe there’s more to come. Time will tell how these deals actually pan out but I’m excited to hear so many of you agree that Klentak has been bold and gone big.

     Btw, I also LOVE the rumor that Phils offers to BH and MM may be for 8 years. I’ve been the one against a 10 year or more contract to anyone. 8 years for either is much more reasonable. I’ll take either and then be done (except a LH reliever). Don’t need Mous or Keuchel.

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160. Time to put a bow on this thing MM today Franco for Strahm tomorrow and BH on Sunday.

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     1. DMAR…on the other thread, you alluded and praised Dohy as the next one for the pen from port side….now you want Strahm!
        I guess you can never have too many LHPs coming out of there.

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        1. Hinkie tells me Strahm may be able to start 🙂

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           1. Yes that is true…he has started for the Padres.

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161. Is today the day? Someone wake up harper and let him know the Phillies just acquired his buddy Realmuto.

     Taking a peak into next year, i believe the DH is a foregone conclusion, no sense in fighting it anymore. So, how does that change your opinions on Franco? Seems like he could fit the mold.
     I wonder if the pursuit of goldschmidt in the early portion of the offseason was due to the rumors of the DH coming? Move Hoskins to DH.

     Interested to see how this will change the rosters for all the NL.

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     1. I like Franco and I’m comfortable keeping him if we don’t get MM but man if he really could get us Strahm from San Diego I have to do that deal.

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162. Okay, let me do a little bragging. Last night, I had the pleasure of having dinner with a few good friends AND several young Phillies prospects. The players included Carlos De La Cruz, Tyler McKay, Jake Kinney, Nick Matera, Ben Brown, Kyle Young, Adam Cox, and Seth McGarry. Alec Bohm had to back out the day before due to a scheduling conflict.

     Of course, we talked about the trade. I had the foresight to pick a seat that positioned me among the players. To a man, they all referred to Realmuto as the best catcher in baseball. Like me, they were going to miss the players they were close to – Stewart first, Sanchez second. They never really had much interaction with Alfaro. He has always been in the major league camp.

     One of my friends had reached out to congratulate Stewart on the trade. He was a little down, first time traded you know. But my friend pointed out that he was going to an organization with a weak farm system, and that he could move quickly up the ranks. He took heart when he was told that the Marlins have no problem bringing a guy from Advanced A to the majors. I think they did that several times last year. I told the players this. I wonder if any wished they had been traded to the Marlins. 😉

     It was a very nice evening with players who are a fine example of the quality people in the organization.

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     1. That’s because you are a good and unique egg Jimmy P. Honestly I don’t know you from Adam but what I do know is you have a passion for Phillies prospects.

        Who else would do what you do for little to 0 compensation.

        I’m sure that bleeds through to the parents you come in contact with and the players down there trying to grind it out.

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        1. And I heard that Jimmy P paid the tab and is a big tipper.

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     2. Sounds like a great time Jim. It’s nice to see the players as young kids off the field.

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163. If Bohm were to come on like a #3 pick in the draft college hitter should and we do end up with a DH that is the spice of life right there.

     Kris Bryant needed just 792 MiLB PA’s he got 146 in his first season age 21 and another 594 in his age 22 season and then wammo.

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     1. Very good point … it may not matter if he can play 3B anymore! Hopefully he can, but it gives the Phillies a security they didn’t have with no DH to plop him into

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        1. Tac3…..Bohm as a DH?
           Not sure teams take young players and make them DHs
           They are normally veterans who have adjusted to MLB pitching over numerous years and are able to sit on a bench for game and grab a bat 3/4 times and get up there.
           And not sure…that would be his wish anyway…maybe when he is 31 or 32

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           1. My bad, I’m new to this DH concept 🙂

              Just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks. The potenial approval of the DH,imo starts to affect the teams moves now.

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           2. The DH will be a total game changer in roster construction, Romus. Whether a young bat coming up through the system or a veteran bat, NL teams can now designate a roster spot solely for that big bopper. Bohm is as likely a candidate as any currently in the organization. Or Hoskins.

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              1. Sell Bohm….good luck there.
                 Prospects in their young 20s are not DHs……have not seen one…maybe there is one out there somewhere.
                 Teams want experienced hitters as DHs.
                 The adjustments is more than you think when all your life you played a position in the field..

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                 1. No he won’t DH while in the minors, Romus. But if and when he reaches the Show, we’ll see.

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                 2. He loses money long term forfeiting playing in the field
                    See this list….all started as position players in their early 20s and were accomplished hitters approaching 30.
                    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/average/designated-hitter/

                    I’d just go out and get a veteran bat.
                    As for Hoskins as the DH…no way Boras lets that happen until he reaches 31/32.

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                 3. Did not intend to infer Bohm to come up and be a DH just that it helps to open up a place for him to play (by moving someone else to DH or using it as a rotational spot to give guys a blow)

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                 4. It is the best strategy to use the DH as a Team position. Rest people in this spot and use a rotation so players are fresh. I don’t want one person planted there.

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                 5. Perfect example would be Nelson Cruz.

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                 6. Romus et al,

                    Unless/until the Phillies go out and and sign a professional DH (an older veteran who has little or no defensive value) I think the Phillies can fill the DH position internally from their AAA/AA ranks. I think that Austin Listi would be a perfect candidate. He can hit, has some power, and doesn’t have a defined position. Defensively he has substantial time at 3 of the corner positions, and eben saw some in-game reps at third with Reading. Darick Hall is blocked by Hoskins. He might also be a good candidate. With all the new players the Phillies are adding, we have kids becoming blocked. DH becomes a viable position for some. Personally, I like Listi for the job.

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                 7. Actually Listi is probably a good example of one younger minor league player that could do the DH role..
                    He apparently has the perfect maturity and attitude to be able to adjust to that role from everything I have read about him.
                    Has been moved all over the field…corner OFs…corners on the infield…so he seems like a very flexible guy.

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                 8. Listi is my dark horse to go north with the parent club in late March.

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164. The top 3 power hitters on the team are Hoskins, McCutchen, and JT now – all right handed. I see Harper, who bats left handed, the prefered addition over Machado, who bats right handed.
     I wish Sixto all the best and hopes he becomes the ace in Miami. With that said, I do believe the Phillies are betting on themselves to draft and sign pitchers and develop them into very good major leaguers. They may feel they have pitchers who could become those Ace or above average starters to lessen the impact of the loss. Medina, Howard, and a handful of other prospects could step up and become that ace we are looking for.

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     1. Romus pointed out to me and then I saw further study on shifts on the MLB network with Smoltsy and Ripken. Shifts are neutralizing left handed batters more than they are RH batters.

        The theory goes if you have two above average hitters the RH hitter is going to fair much better than the LH hitter in todays MLB.

        My guess is that if you imported all the split data on say the top 50 hitters in the MLB you would find Right on Right averages and OPS are higher than left on left.

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        1. Checked on it for you, except I did all of MLB rather than just the top 50 hitters. More sample size that way.

           LHH vs. LHP:
           .234/.305/.363 triple slash, .130 ISO, .293 BABIP, 82 wRC+, .294 wOBA

           RHH vs RHP:
           .246/.308/.404 triple slash, .158 ISO, .295 BABIP, 92 wRC+, .308 wOBA

           So righties were better across the board. But interestingly, the BABIPs are almost identical. You would think if shifts were the cause, there’d be a disparity there.

           I was curious, so I extended the results to begin all the way back in 2010. All the seasons are relatively consistent for both groups. Even down to the batted ball profile, everything seems within the margin of error with the possible exception of one stat: the past three years lefties have converted bunts into hits at a much better clip. Obviously that’s a smallish sample size because not many people bunt, but I thought it was funny.

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           1. That is amazing work by you Dan K. I’m sure you could have a ton of fun slicing and dicing this out.

              If you look at the top 15 OPS leaders last season only five were left handed and 1 was switch.

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165. Nobody broke up the double play better than Frank Robinson.

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     1. I was with my grandson, Chase, pitching to him in the cages when we heard about Frank Robinson.

        Pulled up some videos on him to show Chase how good he was and then showed him the stance;how to lean out over the plate.

        Another page taken from my youthbook.

        Also Bob Friend died past week.

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166. Francisco Morales will make everyone (not forget but) more comfortable with letting Sixto go to get JTR. Morales will have a big breakout this year! (I picked Howard last year and Pivetta the year prior.)

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167. Have to admit MK is thinking bold. Let’s sign BH today and watch the fun.

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     1. The Real Deal is clearly a wide open and unapologetic invitation to Harper to take the stupid money. Let’s see how Boras tries to manipulate things now.

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     2. Word from MLB.com is that we will still have to wait. Word from each camp is that no deal is immenent as of Thursday night.

        They are waiting for the bump in AAV, possibly years.

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168. I may be missing something but why all the love for Robbie Ray? He looks like a left-handed version of our bottom 3 (Eick, VV, Eflin) who will be a free agent in one year. Why would we trade for one year of someone who appears – on paper – to be a mirror image of VV? By way of disclaimer, I hardly ever watch the Dbacks play so maybe seeing is believing.

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     1. Lol, no worries
        No one watches the backs games.

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        1. I get to watch a lot of D’Backs games and Ray is a #5 on our club.

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169. Dbacks

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170. interesting, from rotoworld
     The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal says a reunion between the Brewers and Mike Moustakes “seems inevitable.”

     The Brewers have been shopping for second basemen, but they’re open to moving Travis Shaw to second and signing a third baseman in the right scenario. That scenario is probably Moustakas proving willing to take a one-year deal. Unless the Padres step up, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting something long-term.

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     1. We have a good veteran 2B if Milwaukee is interested. Ideal for a contending team and stabilizes their IF.

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171. With only days before camp opens, each day should until then should see some activity on the transaction wire….

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172. Keith Law’s Phillies’ prospect list is out today. Here’s how it looks after yesterday’s trade:

     1. Spencer Howard, RHP (ranked No. 52)
     2. JoJo Romero, LHP (ranked No. 66)
     3. Luis Garcia, SS (ranked No. 69)
     4. Adonis Medina, RHP
     5. Alec Bohm, 3B
     6. Francisco Morales, RHP
     7. Simon Muzziotti, OF
     8. Ranger Suarez, LHP
     9. Adam Haseley, OF
     10. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
     11. Enyel De los Santos
     12. Mickey Moniak
     13. Jhordany Mezquita
     14. Cole Irvin
     15. Matt Vierling
     16. Kyle Dohy
     17. Zach Warren
     18. Daniel Brito
     19. Kyle Young
     20. Connor Seabold
     OTHERS OF NOTE
     * Arquimedes Gamboa
     * David Parkinson
     * Nick Maton
     * Mauricio Llovera
     * Kevin Gowdy
     * Rafael Marchan

     Among the notes on these guys:
     * Vierling could be moved to 3B
     * Muzzioti is a 70 runner and a 60 current (70 FV) defender in CF

     Also … Law has Sixto #1 and Stewart # 8 in the Marlins system.

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     1. Vierling at 3B? Interesting. I guess he’s got the arm to handle it. Did anyone hear of this being experimented with at instructs?

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     2. Wow, has Randolph fallen out of favor among national writers.

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     3. Man…KLaw really like Vierling and Muzz.
        Every year he seems to come up with prospects ranked higher than the other guys like BA/BP and Fangraphs.
        He always looks for those sleepers I guess.

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173. Read that many in industry expect Nationals to increase their offer if they sense Harper is close to signing with Phillies.
     Not good.

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     1. And how do the nationals do this without spending years above the luxury tax while keeping Rendon?

        Sr

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        1. I’m sure Boras has nothing to do with planting those things in the media.

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     2. Anything is possible, but I spelled out (earlier this week) the Phillies luxury tax cap is much more Bryce Harper friendly. If both the Phillies and Nationals each offered the same 10 year/300 million dollar contract, the Phillies would be responsible for just the 30 million this season. On the other hand, Washington would be responsible for 46.25 million dollars in 2019 because of the taxes and surtaxes the Nationals would incur.

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     3. UTroll, I imagine they could raise the offer but … can they raise again? And again, and Again? Middleton will push them out of the hand before the river. They cannot outspend the Phillies, imho. Also, there is also Machado . I really really like our chances. I’d say it’s 95% certain we get at least 1 of them

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        1. The original offer was 9/$360. Middleton will go that high again if necessary and front load the early years if necessary. Neither Harper nor Boras nor Machado nor Lozano are willing to stand in front of microphone and answer the question, “How much stupid money did you leave on the table to return to the Nats?”

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           1. It was from mlb.com
              I’m sure mlb is oblivious to Boras 🙄

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        2. Tac – according to Hinkie, manny will be a White Sox

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174. The more I think about it, the more I think we add a SP. I like all the young guys, and I include Eickhoff in that. I still feel we may be a #2/3 short in the Rotation. True, that may very well be a Deadline addition, but I foresee a lefthanded SP at some point not named Cole Irvin, so offense to Cole.

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     1. I think they’ll keep looking for a lefty that slots in that number 3 spot ( too bad they passed on hamels)
        I think they’ll keep watching the cost of keuchal and ray (in trade)
        )

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     2. The starting pitching is a very valid concern. Very top heavy and by top heavy I mean there’s Nola and everyone else. I honestly could see Arrieta pitch to an ERA around 3 or 4.50. Same can be said about Pivetta, Eflin and VV. I guess you know more of what you are gonna get from Eickhoff but do you really?
        I’d like to see us make an upgrade prior to opening day.

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        1. EricD…like to think with Realmuto back there, and the added experience of the young pitchers, there will be an upgrade for the pitching staff.
           Just on pure metrics…maybe just maybe upwards of 30% with Realmuto, over last year.

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           1. Plus, all four of our young starting pitchers threw career high innings pitched (Nola, Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eflin). It is likely that with their off-season conditioning programs, they will be better able to handle the longer MLB season.Add Realmuto to that and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies go to war with their current crop of pitchers.

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              1. Corey Seidman has a great analytic comp between Alf and Realmuto in today’s CSN piece.
                 Realmuto really has some exceptional raw skills..pop up times, transistion from glove to hand, speed.
                 Shame he is not 3/4 years younger and still a Phillie.
                 But heck….we have probably the deepest pool of skilled catching prospects of any team in the majors now…at least I think.

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              2. But with that heavier workload, there’s also a greater chance of injury.

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175. It just dawned on me. This whole standoff between the Phillies and the two star FAs reminds me of the climactic scene of “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”. There’s Blondie (Clint Klentak), Tuco (Eli Harper) and Angle Eyes (Lee Van Machado) waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting to see who draws first. I think it turns out the same. This wouldn’t be so painful if we at least had the awesome soundtrack playing in the background. Tuco running through the cemetery looking for Arch Stanton’s grave (not to be confused with Giancarlo Stanton, HA!) is a classic piece of music. Anyway…back to our program.

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     1. Yes, but was Klentak smart enough to unload the Boras’s gun first??

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176. "The move is a clear indication that we're in win-right-now mode and we're going to push our chips in." – @Phillies skipper @gabekapler on the addition of J.T. Realmuto #MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/zHxu5piyAT

     — MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 8, 2019

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     1. I would love to know what the Phillies number is right now. If it’s an 8 year offer as speculated, I would think $280M is the max ($35M AAV). Should the Nats revisit their supposed 10/$300m (which I’m not sure isn’t another Boras fabrication anyway), I hope Middleton says 9/$330 and be done with it.

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        1. To date, it’s pretty clear that the teams interested in Harper are the Nats, Phillies, WSox, Padres and now the Giants. The Los Angeles Dodgers reportedly moved away from Harper when they used open cap space to sign outfielder A.J. Pollock.
           And of those remaining teams….IMO…it comes down to the Phillies and back home again Nats…which I do not know how they can afford him. The WSox , Padres and Giants are 3rd/4th place clubs for awhile in their divisions with Harper…..not sure he wants to languish like that again for 3/4 years….he did that back in 2010 and 2011.
           Plus Petco and AT&T will not be good for him personally as HR hitter’s parks.

           Maybe his heart is not in Philly, but Benjamin Franklin is calling him…and he cannot turn down an American founding father! 🙂

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           1. I think the presence of Hoskins and addition of JTR definitely makes coming here more appealing if we are also the top dollar bidder

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              1. I’m about curious if he prefers not to play against the Nationals so much, and go back into that ballpark in the visitors dugout. Something tells me he didn’t think the Phillies would be the highest bidder when he envisioned being a FA. Slow playing it, as much as they have is probably best for his soon to be old fan base, let them down easier. Of course the really mad ones, will have had less time to digest, and get used to the idea.

                 Also, playing in the NL EAST is a B for hitters … you gotta face Degrom,Scherzer,Syngysrd,Wheeler, Stras, Corbin, and few others. He might be thinking of avoiding that gauntlet, especially WAS.

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                 1. Tac3…the one saving grace with the NL-East starting pitching strengths….they are mostly all RHPs sans Corbin and maybe Matz when healthy…..Newcomb I think he can handle..
                    So that is to his advantage.

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           2. When I think about it, why don’t the Phillies agree to his record request of say $330 over 9 years, front loaded and incentivized to have him opt out after 5 years. Then he’s more inclined to not stay for full duration, and we’re less likely to be stuck with the whole contract.

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              1. it really is hard to figure out their negotiation strategy or price limit since we have no idea what they have offered
                 maybe they have offered that and boras is looking for more
                 I just don’t know how to evaluate without knowing their offier, other offers and what boras wants

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                 1. I am telling you…the last two off-seasons Boras has been the one key agent that has contributed the most to slowing the process to a grinding halt.
                    Last year it was Arrieta and JD Mart….this year Harper and tail ending on it Moustakas.
                    Take Boras out of the equation and free agency runs smooth.

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177. it will be interesting if they make any other moves other than signing BH ( i’m putting that in the yes category at this point)
     they may just go with what they have and make further moves as needed
     maybe a smaller trade of AA or Williams

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     1. Sr…I think it is getting really close to camp for them..making more trades may not be in their interest…perhaps maybe one more, but most times it takes time to work out all the details of trades, just to have to get all the scouting reports and medicals lined up and read.

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        1. agreed but the OF will need to be addressed if they sign BH
           cant really care 6 OFs
           and they have a lot of relievers

           sr

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           1. That will be an area where Klentak could work out a deal pretty quick…one for one .
              If BH is signed…then assume like everyone else does..one of Williams, Quinn, Altherr or Herrera go in a trade

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              1. Romus – I think it’s between Williams and Altherr. If Cozens has a great Spring, they may trade both. Honestly, I’d rather they rebuild the farm with prospects or International money.

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                 1. 👍

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           2. If they sign one of the two, there will be at least one more trade, almost has to be.

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              1. Yup

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178. Bob Nightengale says that quietly NL owners are saying no way to the DH anytime soon. May just have to wait until CBA following 2021.

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     1. Not surprised that NL owners don’t want the DH,, They cost much more than the 25th man on the bench or that 12th reliever…

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        1. Good point

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           1. And obviously another bargaining chip.

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179. Rob Manfred is hopeful that baseball's biggest free-agent stars Bryce Harper/Manny Machado are signed before position players report for spring training next weekend: "Obviously, we want our star players signed and ready to go when we start playing.''

     — Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 8, 2019

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     1. Impotent words spoken by an empty suit. Nothing personal, Rob.

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     2. followed by boras saying ” rob, shut the hell up, you answer to me”

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180. Has Manny become a new version of that old game, “WHERE’S WILLARD” ???????
     Whatever became of his agent too ??? These guys make espionage seem like kid’s play. Other than having the Wizard of Oz mention “a mystery team” in the weeds, have they been kidnapped ?

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     1. Yeah, it’s like they’ve entered the witness protection program. I am leaning with Bob Nightengale these days. Manny seems to have no interest in playing in Philadelphia but is really sitting tight, waiting for Lozano to tell him it’s okay to go ahead and sign with the White Sox. Harper, OTOH, doesn’t loathe the idea of playing in Philadelphia. He’s just a west coast guy in an east coast FA market. He prefers other towns to ours but when it’s all over, he will be wearing red pinstripes. Boras is the reason, IMO, that he isn’t already.

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        1. 8mark ….how about this plan
           Sign Harper….then eat 20% of his salary and trade him with Franco, to the Padres for Tatis, Strahm, Myers and 3 or 4 of their other top 10 prospects.
           Eh? 🙂 🙂

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           1. If only he wasn’t 100% definitely going to include a complete no trade clause, Romus. But nice thought 😉

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              1. But he does want one of the six West Coast teams….so i doubt he would have a no-trade clause on any of them

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181. Exciting time, sorry I’ve been so busy the past two days that I’ve been unable to post. So here are my thoughts a day or two late:

     1. Happy to have Realmuto. I’ve been wanting him for nearly a year but not expecting the Phillies to pursue him. I really like the potential of Alfaro and Sixto, but one in hand, as they say.

     2. This reinforces what Klentak has been saying all off-season: He’s happy with his starting pitchers. We’ve got six MLB-experience starters vying for five positions, plus emerging guys like Howard and Medina coming up. And we can trade for another starter.

     3. Harper is my preference over Machado and, while I have zero information upon which to base a decision, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harper sign with the Phillies next week.

     Thanks, Jim, for your insights. And thanks to all for lively, informed and informative discussion.

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182. If Hinkie is right and Manhy is headed for the Sox then it’s now Harper or bust.

     The good news, without Harper, Phillies are a 86 win team.

     Not holding hope for Harper but it’s been an awesome offseason and happy with the team we’ve got.

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     1. To be clear … I believe MM is going to the CWS because the Phillies are focused on BH. MM would be happy to take John Middleton’s stupid money if it ever becomes available to him. I think the Phillies have a smaller offer out to MM, but have told him to get back to them before signing elsewhere. I believe the Phillies and Bryce Harper are pretty close to a deal. Machado and Lozano know it, and will cave, and agree to the CWS 8 year offer soon. I have no inside info on this. It’s just a vibe I’ve gotten from everything I’ve read and heard.

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        1. To be clear; You literally said MM will be a White Sox in a week. Didn’t cite any sources.

           I’m just bringing it up because you always got on to me for having an opinion or a belief where the players would go.

           🐸 ☕️

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           1. To be even more clear … my opinion has always been very optimistic. The Phillies will definitely sign one of MM/BH. Your opinion has always been very negative. The Phillies will miss out on each. You even believe the Padres are a realistic landing spot for these guys.
              I’m going to be honest with you. I don’t even take you seriously. You contribute twitter posts from fake reporters and other “trolls” (like Dan Clark) as evidence the Phillies will miss out on Harper and Machado. The day Harper or Machado is sitting on the dais with Middleton and MacKlentak, you’ll be here posting the check will bounce, and they’ll instead leave foe the Giants.

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              1. Hinkie – I have posted “fake stuff” in quite some time.
                 I don’t take you seriously either. All you have said is that Harper or Manny will sign with the Phillies because they have the most money.

                 Well it looks like Manny is heading to the Sox (per you).
                 This leave Harper. His preference is the West Coast.
                 I’m negative because I don’t get the vibe we will get one. That’s fine. People like you try to make people feel stupid for giving an opinion or trying to contribute to conversations. You know nothing. You give an opinion, just like I do.

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                 1. Haven’t posted**

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              2. Hinkie…LOL,
                 ….no more checks…on-line transfers and direct deposits

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                 1. On a lighter note, I laugh when I get a check because we are in the age of online transfer apps.
                    Crazy you can now take a picture of a check and boom, it’s deposited.

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              3. I’m waiting for theJoe Santolaquito story to come out for the “real” story.

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     2. No one knows if MM or BH wants to come to Philadelphia unless they have been a party of their inner circles.

        The Philllies might not have given them the best offers and they are playing off the other teams to play here.

        We might be all reading yhis wrong and making it more difficult if they sign with us.

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        1. Denny – don’t say that. Phillies have the most money so Harper or Manny WILL sign with the Phillies for that reason.

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           1. They have the most money but maybe they haven’t shown it all yet and the FAs are milking it until the final drop.

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              1. Stupid money >>> “I like playing on the west coast”

                 I’ve explained this dozens of times. Look at the history of free agency. In nearly every case, FA’s ALWAYS sign for the most guaranteed money. Cliff Lee and older guys near the end of their careers chasing rings are the exception.
                 Three months ago, Patrick Corbin was definitely going to the NYY’s because he grew up in upstate NY, and his family were huge Yankee fans. Also, Charlie Morton only wanted to re-sign with the Astros or play close to his in-laws who live in Delaware. What happened? Corbin passed up the Yankees for the Nationals, and Morton ended up in Tampa. Why? Because they signed for the most guaranteed money.
                 Your theory that Harper wants to play on the west coast, and is just waiting for a team from California to make him a reasonable offer is the stuff of fairy tales.

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                 1. Hinkie, it’s a concept that many simply will not accept no matter how many different ways you try to explain it.

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183. Jim Peyton – Can you find out if Realmuto was an early report to Miami Spring training? How soon before he shows up in Clearwater?

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     1. I believe a Tuesday press conference is scheduled in Clearwater, with JTR

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        1. I heard this as well from listening to a can podcast on csnphilly with the two best writers. Sounds for sure that it will be Tuesday at the latest

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        2. I heard this as well from listening to a can podcast on csnphilly with the two best writers. Sounds for sure that it will be Tuesday at the latest

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184. Not sure if anyone saw The Good Phights tweet
     https://mobile.twitter.com/TheGoodPhight/status/1093972642737082368

     But they mention the Phillies possible offer. Did mention it was hearsay but it seems to be a good Phillies blog so it was worth mentioning.

     Phillies offer to BH 7 for $275mil

     Again…hearsay…but they mention it.

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     1. If MM and BH want to have this figured out before Spring training, they have one week (crazy that it’s that time!).

        Yes – I know – stupid money. But i think Manny or Harper are still holding hope for their dream team to come through with a reasonable offer.

        While the Phillies playing the waiting game, they should look at one more trade or signing.

        I don’t think they trade Franco. I think they empty the farm a little more, add CeHe and go get a TOR arm. Idk who, but it’s not out of the question.

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        1. Must be a fake rumor – wasn’t posted by Hinkie

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           1. Troll … That’s too funny coming from a guy who’s used @ashdodgers35, Dan Clark, and who could ever forget Sean Bradley (“Philadelphia sports reporter, who’s old twitter account was deleted for personal reasons”) as sources for predicting the Phillies will fail to sign both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

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185. “Good morning, BH….so, what are you waiting for? Get your a$$ in Clearwater!” – JTR

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     1. All kidding aside, I hope that as high end players like Harper and Machado, along with their agents (and families too, for that matter) stare at the money still sitting on the table in front of them, they are in touch with the reality that they may never, ever see that much offered to them again. Ever.

        Wake up.

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        1. Harpers wife liked one of Hoskins tweets in reference to Buster Poseys win now tweet.
           Was her like a hint?
           Guess we will find out on the next episode of where will Harper sign?

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           1. Harper’s Bizarre!

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186. Cali Dreamin has been quiet. Wonder if there’s any rumblings from his insider.

     Tac3 – I think it’s time to tap your source that’s within the Phillies org.

     You guys are the only two on here besides Jim that have sources (from what I’ve read).

     Let us know what’s going on!!

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187. If Phillies make a move today or early enough tomorrow, this weekly discussion could hit 1000 comments!

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188. Wonder why’s going on with Dallas Kuechel. Any word?

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189. Any word on Kimbrel?

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190. Let’s set the way-back machine to the day after the World Series ended. We all knew that the Phillies would be players for Machado and Harper. Most fans next priority was adding a starting pitcher, and trading Franco. Without throwing a pitch, the staff has improved to where most fans feel that it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they all returned. Franco, who finished the season on the shelf, and looked like he was 99% sure of being traded, is still here four months later. I never thought that Franco was “The man” in the lineup, but I have always wondered what he could do if he was surrounded by other very good hitters. Hernandez, Segura, Herrera, McCutchen, Hoskins, Realmuto, and Harper will take the heat off of Franco, and allow him to blossom. He could still be traded, but I don’t see an area of need that justifies it. With the upgrades to the batting order, and bullpen, I’m ready to go to war. With the addition of Harper, the front office will have accomplished what I thought was impossible when the season ended. We will have a top 10, or better lineup this year.

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     1. Wonder how Franco feels knowing the Phillies wanted to trade him and couldn’t? You gotta believe they at least tried.

        Even if the Phillies don’t get Harper, they have done the unthinkable.

        Out of all the times people have given Klentak crap (me included) for not pulling off any trades.

        He sends JP and Slamtana for Segura and BP help.
        He sends Sixto (who can be replaced by Howard soon for Top arm in our system), Alfaro (great upside but lots of holes and cost the Phillies many offensive and defensive runs) and Will Stewart (potential but 2-3 years away).

        Phillies projected to win 86 games. A few good bounces and this is a 90 win team without Harper. And of Harper comes, it could be a 92+ win team.

        Very impressive.

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        1. Troll – Franco probably feels the same way that Hernandez did last year. They’re aware that they are available, but know that Klentak won’t just give them away. Let’s not forget the Garcia trade for Alvarez.

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           1. That’s very true. Guess we will see what transpires

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     2. Agreed
        Sign Harper, make a smaller trade of an outfielder to clear the roster and get going.
        Trade for a starter during season if need be
        Not all that excited about options now anyway
        Not sure how you fit Harper and Keuchel this yr unless you clear some salary

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        1. Read somewhere that echoed that statement.

           Basically stated why trade Sixto for JT when you could’ve used him for a TOR arm. TBH there wasn’t much out there so JT was a great trade.

           There will be much more availability come deadline.

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191. Phillies should take a chance on Gio

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     1. UTroll, id rather take a chance on Eickhoff. Just feel he will be back for the 2016 campaign. His nerve issue I believe really impacts his pitching, much like efflins knees efflin starts off great when he’s fresh then and you start to wonder how potential pain is affecting his mechanics. I see eickhoffs nerve issue as non recurring

        Also, keep the peace. You can always agree to disagree.

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        1. Also Cole Irvin would be better than Gio.

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           1. Agree Denny, maybe Gio is Marginally better, but I’d just go with inside options for now. They don’t have to make every move this offseason

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192. Any word on Mous?

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     1. Leaning back to the Brewers last I saw form one of the main analysts that guests regularly on the MLB Network

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        1. Guess by default maybe.
           Wonder if Phillies said they were holding on to Franco, Padres only wanting to break bank for Manny, so that left Mous and Brew Crew.

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193. It seems any final offer needs to beat the highest AAV and needs to beat Stanton’s total. Seems to me, it shouldn’t be that hard to structure something with opt outs that publicly allows Harper and boras to crow but will unlikely even be an issue since he’ll opt out

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     1. I’ll agree with others that the Phillies should just go 9 for $360m again
        Phillies are having a stare off with Boras.
        Just give a no doubt about it deal and say this is it.

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        1. Troll – I’m as anxious as the next guy, but we all need to keep the faith. I don’t think that Middleton or Klentak are being cheap, But I believe that Trout is still the end game. How would we feel if we lost out on Trout because we overpaid on Harper this year? Breathe in, and breathe out, we got this.

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194. I mentioned this months ago….no DH in the NL until after the next CBA which does not convene until Dec 2021…..the 2022 season for sure.

     https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/manfred-no-dh-in-the-national-league-until-at-least-2022-553169.html

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195. Take what greinke makes [ I think he’s highest AAV], figure out how many yrs to get over 325 million, Stanton’s total, and there’s your contract. Add some opt outs and options for fun

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     1. 8 years puts it around $40mil AAV

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196. Schwimmer’s analytics company rates JTR as the 10th best player in baseball, higher than Harper. JTR’s influence on the game is huge. It makes me feel even better about this deal. It does make me wonder if we should sign Mous if we sign Harper to get the lefty bats. With Hererra the lineup would look very balanced.

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     1. Murray, I was thinking that very thought last night. JTR is a better, more impactful player than Harper, whose primary appeal is his “chicks love the long ball” persona. That plus an elite plate approach although he hasn’t shown the consistency of a truly elite hitter. Hype has served Harper far more than his real value. But he’s a difference maker in the larger scheme of things, including fan buzz and ticket sales.

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197. Just saw story flashed across my iPhone screen that Yankees offering $220 million over 7-8 years to Machado. This follows one day after NY Post story saying Hal Steinbrenner is “steamed” at being seen as cheap.

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198. Romus, just the other day mentioned 9 yrs/$333 Million. I think he may be right on with that. TrollU, on Gio, I think the FO was in on Corbin and Happ, up to a point, and are now in on Keuchel if the #s come down to the Arrieta range. I think,rather than Gio, who they probably view as no upgrade over what we have, they look at a lefthanded RP who can also start, a la Minor or the guy from SD that Hinkie loves.

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     1. That offer to Harper and 8/$250 to Manny should get us both, thank you very much.

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199. Whoah
     Anyone follow Marcus Stroman on twitter?!
     He’s hinting at someone in their division (I assume Yankees) are close to adding a big time SS/3B. Wonder who lol

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     1. Lol he just said he was trolling

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     2. Stroman is referring to this story https://www.thescore.com/news/1713835
        According to the article, the Yankees have offered Machado 220 million over 7 or 8 years (according to Jim Duquette). Duquette also opined that he doesn’t think the Yankees are going to be the highest bidder and Machado will have “other options that are probably higher in other cities,” specifically naming the Philadelphia Phillies.

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        1. Shocking that Trollu left out that part of the story. He tells the truth on what he reads but He cheerypicks stories that are anti- Harper and MM to Phillies.

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           1. Are you kidding me? Lol
              I replied to my own post and said stroman was trolling! There was no story for me to tell. Hinkie turned it around to make me look bad because that’s what he does. He tries to make others feel lesser than he.

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              1. My only point is you’re going to report random twitter comments and insider stories that argue against the Phillies getting either player to support your opinion, you should also report the many that are pro Phillies getting one of those players otherwise you come across as cherry picking to support your viewpoint and to aggitate the fans on this site

                 That’s true for anyone. I have no dog in this fight. Just commenting about what I read

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                 1. I said Marcus Stroman posted it! There was no agenda behind it!!

                    I used to post Phillies rumors but Stinkie kept shooting down with his opinions.

                    Bullies damn

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                 2. TrollU…….its good that you actively post.
                    And I find them interesting to read and sometimes with a different perspective on things.
                    But just one little word to the wise,
                    …..Jim Peyton has in the past over the years, on more than one occasion, has had to put on his ’mediator hat’.
                    He really does not get paid nearly enough for that job.
                    So before things go a little beyond respectability, perhaps better to just agree to disagree, and let things go.

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                 3. Romus – I let things go but it’s not ok for 8mark, Hinkie, and you (yes, I saw the underhanded comment not too long ago) to make remarks when I make an opinion. I am fine with someone disagreeing, but the way they do it is uncalled for. I’m not going to back down and allow someone to be rude to me.

                    I agree, Jim doesn’t get paid enough but again, I’m not going to back down and let king Hinkie and his assistant be rude to me.

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              2. Troll … Is this for real? I turned it around to make you look bad? You posted the Marcus Stroman tweet so I went to Stroman’s twitter page. If you looked at his twitter page (and I assume you did because you are the one who first introduced it here), he references the story.

                 Here’s my source. Lol https://t.co/SaAGP2RUMf

                 — Marcus Stroman (@STR0) February 9, 2019

                 Naturally, I clicked on the story to investigate. I copy and pasted from the article to explain what was going on. If you’ve got hard feelings over that, then I don’t know what to tell you.

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                 1. It’s the way you worded and then sr jumped on board saying I was twisting stuff to fit my agenda. Either way, as Romus stated, let’s agree to disagree.

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200. Parting is such sweet sorrow.

     Off to Florida but it appears somebody doesn't want me to go… 😄 pic.twitter.com/y3zS2mqnpJ

     — Aaron Altherr ( 알테어 ) (@AAltherr) February 8, 2019

     I’m a dog lover so this stuff makes me laugh/hits home.

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201. Since Phillies were willing to trade Sixto I would have preferred going after a rotation trade… assuming one was available, like Klueber, Bauer, or even Paxson.

     My philosophy for catching is to never overpay, especially for hitting due to how many games are lost due to rest or injury.

     Why pay ‘star’ money for 120 game starter. Primary skill I want from catcher is calling game and managing pitching staff which may be hard to measure. Pitching is super expensive so maximizing it would be my main goal of a catcher.

     Because of injury concerns I would always want a ‘good’ prospect catcher on the 40man to stash in AAA to keep roster flexibility.

     Ruiz seemed like my ideal catcher because pitchers loved him, he was not a stud hitter (power hitters are expensive), with his age kept his salary down.

     Realmuto could be great, I just would have use the trade value on a different position. I would have paid Ramos if he wanted to come back. If not, Russell Martin would have been my preference for Alfaro’s backup. Keep Knapp at AAA even if he splits time with Grullon.

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     1. Ok 2008 vs 2019:

        Hoskins – Howard, could be closer than you think.

        Hernandez – Utley, no contest with Ut

        Segura – Rollins, JRo but maybe that as much as you would first think

        Franco – Feliz, I’d go with Mikael

        McCuthchin – Burrell, Cutch still has it

        Herrera – Victorino, if OD can straighten it out and overall a little better

        Williams – Werth, Full year of Nick will nose out the homeless guy

        Realmuto – Ruiz, Chooch defensively but JT overall

        Nola – Hamels, a push

        Arrieta – Moyer, Jamie for that year but Jake can bounce back

        Nick/VV/Ef – Meyers/KK/Eaton/Blanton, I would go with our 3 mustcateers over those four worsemen.

        Robertson/Sir Anthony – Lidge, can’t touch that bullpen but maybe we can come close.

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202. Can someone please explain the logic of Harper to giants except the west coast part? They’re a veteran team , declining, with a number of huge contracts and little luxury tax space and a poor pharm system in a division with 2really good teams. Also, a Death Valley for homerun hitters.
     They’re not close to contending

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     1. I’ll take a stab at the appeal for Harper, just my 2 cents. Pro sides – FO knows how to win, more championships and shorter rebuild periods that phi/Cws/SD/LA. Mccovey cove, talk about making a big splash! Big enough market to compete with Phillies on a money level in the near enough future. Obviously, very close to home in comparison to east coast teams. Doesn’t have to face old teammates as much, hurt Lerner if he respects him type issue. Plus its warmer, and his wife may prefer SF over PHI. Division doesn’t seem to be as strong as the NL East

        Cons – team finanicals you mentioned, strength of farm system, less allstars, RF will hurt his defense. He is still good defensluoy but that is a much larger RF than CBP. Less Stats for legacy than CBP which he apparently cares about

        To me … it’s a no brainer in terms of baseball … imo baseball overall benefits more from him in PHI, in a very competence division than SF. At least for the first portion of his contract before the opt outs.

        It’s all the other factors we can’t know .. like does his wife prefer sf over phi, does he really care if she does or not, etc …

        He should be a Phillie in my mind. Baseball needs the matchups (Hoskins/Harper/Realmuto) will draw national ratings vs Scherzer,Degrom, Corbin, sybedgard, Marlins young pitchers etc . Especially when it’s a tight division

        Players union needs to step in and tell him to take the money 🙂

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203. Smoke and mirrors

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204. Denny, Are you serious with that comparison? I love Rhys but, come on, Howard had 48 HRs and 146 RBIs, and that isn’t even the weakest comparison. Werth is way better than Williams, we can only hope that Doobie can come close to Victorino, Feliz was much better defensively than Franco, and JRoll was an MVP candidate and much better all around than Segura. I appreciate your optimistic view, but we are nowhere close to the 2008 team, and adding Harper still leaves us way short.

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     1. I agree mostly, but there are areas the 19 version is better.

        Cooch vs Realmuto – I think it’s Reamuto all the way. I was big fan of cooch too. He was Danny Briere of the Phillies, very clutch

        The 19 bullpen is deeper imo, from what I remember of 08. Now obviously you can’t expect to top Lidge, hellva season. Also Jc Romero was on roids. I think 19 can be better, but will have to wait and see

        SP … Hamels,Myers,Moyer, Blanton.. and Pedro? ending Was Haap for awhile or Kendrick inforget
        Vs
        Nola, Arrietta,Pivetta, Eickhoff,VV/Wfflin – will seep I think it can be comparisble, still don’t know the final version yet.

        Also 08 team had a much easier division matchups.

        I’d take O8 over 19, even with Harper. They were clutch and mentally into the game, we don’t know that about 19 yet. O .. and minus a WFC too 🙂

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     2. Adding Machado? And isnt this pitching staff better than 2008?

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     3. And Cozens is better than Stairs, lol

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        1. I can’t argue with you there Denny!

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           1. Okay, moving in the right direction. Kingery is also better than Brumlett.

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        2. In what universe?

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205. Couple of points – Duquette came out and restated his Yankees $$ offering story – the amount mentioned was a RUMOR not grounded in fact. He made a point to contact MLB radio this morning at 11:00 to state that – and they went out of their way to make it clear.

     The late entrant teams – Padres and Giants – on Harper, are doing their due diligence. If there is so little interest in these 2 players why not call them and ask what they would take for a short term contract etc ?? They have to do their job. If there are other teams, one would suppose their tack would be similar. If anything, this implies “weakness” in ongoing negotiations, not strength. Boras jet flying Harper to see the Giants is nothing more than “playing the game” in this stare-down.

     The suspense continues……

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     1. Agree with you, RU. These other clubs like the Giants and Padres (even the Yankees) are bargain hunting. They hope they can get a good deal on the superstar FA left standing after the Phillies spend their stupid money on the other guy. If the Phillies ink Harper, the NYY’s probably feel they could get Machado on a team friendly deal (depending on how much money the White Sox throw at him). If the Phillies sign Machado, the Giants want to explore if Harper could be had on the cheap.
        In the end, I still believe the Phillies and CWS end up with these guys because they’ll offer the most guaranteed dollars.

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206. Interesting podcast from ESPN given by Buster Olney on status of free agents with Bob Nightengale and a conversation with Keith Law about minor league systems.

     Highlight – Law spent considerable amount of time reviewing the Phillies minor league system and went out of his way to say at # 10 he was very unhappy with where he put them. They could either be 6 or 15 he stated – namely because he felt an inordinate number of prospects had bad years due to injury/performance. He said most scouts think the system has a alot of talent – he agrees, but it just didn’t come out in 2018, thus their ranking.. He felt that the Phils system should grade much higher and likely will going forward. Just reporting from me……not adding any color.

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207. Per mlb.com Arenado extension talks are at the finish line.
     Harper and Manny probably are paying attention to this.

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     1. I’ll post the story so Hinkie can’t turn it around on me somehow.

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208. 3rd paragraph states they’re in the finals with it

     https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-extension-would-have-big-impact/c-303722844

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209. From what I am hearing, things are coming to a head ans and the stare downs may be ending soon. Again, this is not me speaking but coming from Shadow [who knows a Phillie official] and 702 [a friend of Harper’s] and they are both saying the same thing…there is extreme pressure from MLBPA and MLB to get this done soon, it has become cumbersome and counterproductive to the interests of both baseball and its players.

     So, let’s sort things out. First, the things that will NOT happen. Harper is not signing with the Giants or Padres, neither of them will come within 50 million of the Phillies and if you are a “generational talent” like Boras likes to suggest, would you want your client go to play in a ball park where home runs go to die? Didn’t think so, and if you do thing so, just remember that neither Harper or Boras view this as their last contract and they want that next contract coming after a season with 35-40 home runs and not 25. Advantage: Phillies.

     The other thing I am hearing is that the Phils offers for BOTH Machado and Harper are currently the highest, with Harper’s being the higher of the two. Both players have been told to seek out other offers and then come back to the Phillies and Boras KNOWS the Phillies will top any offer received from another team. But this is where the back channel conversations become important, Klentak knows and understands that Lozano and Boras are as likely to exaggerate as they are to honestly say what other offers are out there and Klentak’s experience in watching the Angels negotiate that long term deal with Pujols has apparently stood him well.

     Now I don’t know about this supposed Yankee offer but will offer an educated guess…it tells me Machado is ready to make a decision this week and NEEDS to have the Yankees as an alternative in hopes that he can get 10-20 million more from the team he eventually signs with if its not the Yankees. Again, the prevailing opinion in baseball is that the Phils CAN top the Yankee offer if they wish to…and IF they even believe the offer is serious.

     One more thing to understand. Boras is VERY unlikely to let Harper sign before Machado does because he believes that Harper becomes more valuable to the Phillies once Machado goes off the market. If you don’t believe this is true, just ask yourself this…can you imagine what this site is going to be like AFTER Machado signs elsewhere [if thats what happens]? People will be in panic mode…and Boras is counting on that.

     Not so Lozano and Machado. They know that if they wait till after Harper signs, especially if its with the Phillies, the market for him will collapse unless this Yankee offer is serious. I suspect Machado signs this week and Boras keeps Harper out for another 10-14 days, not because he won’t already know who his client is signing with but because he doesn’t want Manfred and MLB dictating to him. Remember, perception becomes reality!

     So, there ya go. Expect the rumors of mystery teams, high rumored salary offers, and talk of collusion to energize the process as we enter the home stretch.

     And in the end, expect that IF Harper signs with the Phillies, it will be for more than $325 million. Boras is determined to beat Stanton, the Phils know and understand this, and will accommodate. Oh, and that supposed 7/275 Phillie rumored offer? I think both the Phillies and Boras like that out there so when Harper signs for more years and 60 million more, Boras will look like he won…and the Phils will have the player they want.

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     1. And we know these sources are legit, how?

        If so, probably the best info I’ve read on here. Very much appreciated, CD. You have legit sources which is legit 😍

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     2. My guess on Harper…9/$333M…why….easy to remember.

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        1. That sounds about right

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        2. I could see that. I was thinking 8/$300 but we’re in the same range.

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           1. I think it has to beat Stanton’s 325 for boras to say yes

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              1. Sr…personally, like I told 8mark a few days ago and since Harper wants the West Coast…Manny wants the Yankees.
                 Sign Harper …9/$333M….then eat 20% of the salary and trade him to the Padres.
                 Harper and Franco to the Padres for 3rd baseman Fernando Tatis, LHP MacKenzie Gore, OFer Wil Myers and LHP Matt Strahm.

                 Myers goes to LF at $14M AAV for 6 yrs…..all the rest are still under controlled contracts or minor leaguers ready to come on up.

                 Phillies lower their payroll even further in anticipation of Nola and Trout contracts….and a starter TOR maybe.

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                 1. Lol
                    Makes total sense and that’s why it has no chance to happen
                    But your thoughts do raise a key point:
                    There are other ways to continue to build team if they don’t have Harper or mm

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                 2. We want Wil Myers because……?????

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                 3. Because he is better than any other OFer we will roll out there in LF, or for that matter any OF…last 400 games has a 8bWAR value, and was on pace for a 5bWAR last season but injury curtailed him at the start…. and at a great AAV. of less than $14M for the next 5 years.
                    And San Diego wants to trim their OF surplus…..actually even Hunter Renfroe or Franmil Reyes would look good also in LF..

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                 4. And look at his splits…similar to JTR ….but outside Petco he was plus
                    Away….297/.357/.516
                    Home…210/.279/.376
                    In almost identical PAs

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     3. CD, thanks again for your contribution to the discussion today. I am encouraged by your thoughts.

        My dilemma, or rather theirs, is how Boras and Lozano “know” when the time is to say yes to the Phillies offer before losing whatever is left of their market. And since the Phillies are already the high water mark, what are they possibly waiting for?

        Anyone with insight into this, please jump in….except those who don’t. Thanks.

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        1. It’s negotiating 101. Who will give in first? The agents believe the teams are under pressure from their fans and the calendar to get something g done. Maybe they’ll kick in another year or another few million to get a deal done. The Phillies believe they already have the largest offer and do t feel a need to increase it. They do however know the clock is ticking. The believe the player will grow impatient and want to get to camp somewhere. Boras has a deadline date in his mind and it’s probably late next week when position players report. My guess is this gets done next Thursday/Friday and Harper will report to Clearwater. Manny will sign with the White Sox right after.
           Phils have said they will only sign Keuchel if they sign Manny. So who do they chase in a trade with Williams after Harper signs? Will they offer Franco also and sign Mous?

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        2. It’s like people have said, neither wants to sign first as the second fears they won’t get as much money.

           Fun with rumors:
           Apparently after Yankees rumored offer came out, a White Sox upped theirs. That’s definitely some feeding from the Agent.

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210. TroolU…yes, I understand how “sources” can be about as valuable as a Southern dollar bill after the Civil War ended. So, I tend to be quite conservative in who I trust. That said, I trust Shadow and 702 because they have incredible credibility from a Phillie base of phans that does not suffer fools easily and they are trusted by these non suffering fool eliminators!

     As for my Boras comments, I will take ownership of all of those, I have watched this agent operate for waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many years and live within a strong Johnny Callison throw from right field to home plate from him. I am confident that when I say he is “ruthless” and couldn’t care about anything but getting his client the best deal possible I am walking down a pretty safe alley.

     Hinkie has suggested as much quite often also but its worth repeating here…players do NOT choose Boras as their agent if they are inclined to take anything but the HIGHEST offer available. None of this “I want to play of the West Coast” or “I feel extreme loyalty to my present team” or “I don’t want to sign with a team in the same division as the team I am leaving.”

     Nope…when you sign up with Boras you are telling the entire baseball community…show me the money. Something to think about in a few years when the Phils attempt to re-sign Hoskins.

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     1. I was giving you kudos, sir.

        Hopefully Hoskins isn’t the same debacle!

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     2. I can appreciate your posts because they’re well thought out and you don’t smash someone for their opinion.

        Keep up the good information. Looking forward to hearing more as the weeks transpires.

        In your opinion, do you see the Arenado extension putting a wrench in this week timeline?

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     3. I know what you meant, but not sure if “incredible credibility” really works; sort of an oxymoron.

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     4. Good stuff, Mr. Dreamer. Agree with it all.

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211. Any chance my birthday and Xmas presents for the next 10 yrs come at same time and we get both MM and BH. LOL

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     1. Would really be nice. That would put Philly at around $200mil
        But they’d get some money back with a Franco trade.

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212. TrollU…oh, I knew that! Thanks for the kind words!

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213. Personally, I think the Arenado extension, if it happens, will affect Machado and Harper…but in different ways! An Arenado extension will give Machado a clear guide post to what he can legitimately ask for, he will deserve and likely get a higher number than Arenado because he is younger, and at least as talented.

     The Harper affect is more indirect, but no less interesting. Arenado’s deal will give Rendon a clear road map to what he can ask for and since he is A] just about as talented as Arenado and B] represented by Boras this can either cause shock waves in Washington or make it a bit easier to get him an extension. Why is this important?

     Because right now it looks clear to me that the Nats KNOW they can’t have both Harper and Rendon and probably figure Rendon is the easier and less expensive signee. But if Arenado gets something in the $250 million range, Boras will want $275 for Rendon and the Nats COULD decide to circle back to Harper. Which might affect the Phillies and what they have to offer.

     Look, this is all like a chess game…but fortunately, there is a likely end game to this process and thats the calendar. Baseball is starting soon and unless these guys are less competitive than I think they are, they are going to want to play. So my guess is that Machado and Harper will watch the Arenado negotiations with interest…but not let them derail their eventual deals.

     As for Rendon? Boras rarely negotiates deals for players who are 1 year from free agency and I doubt he changes his tune this year. The Nats are likely to revisit the Harper story with their star 3rd baseman following the 2019 season.

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214. I wonder if the yankees have been waiting on Arenado to see if he’s going to get locked up with the rockies or be free at the end of the season. If he’s locked up then they can circle back to Machado and perhaps up the ante. If that were the case it would make sense since Machado could be holding out for the yankees in the hopes that they will get him close enough to what he wants in order to sign there vs say possible more with the phils.

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215. Poor Giants fans. Apparently there’s a strong rumor (even the verified twitter accounts acknowledged it) that Harper and Giants are close and something could happen today.
     It was quickly debunked but you Giants fans are feeling how we did last week when we thought it was a done deal.

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     1. The giants need to rebuild. With or without Harper. They have no more money, bad contracts and no farm system.
        Harper will get them to 75 wins max

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        1. I am not spreading the rumor. I’m just stating what’s going in twitter land as the same stuff happened to us last week.

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216. Please note that I am trying to keep people confident because I agree with Hinkie, the Phils are almost undoubtedly going to get one of the players. In fact, the latest…Shadow said the Phillies don’t think its inevitable that they get one of them [probably Harper] but are only one notch below inevitable.

     And 702, who is friends with Harper and lives in Las Vegas, said the Nats are NOT a threat to the Phillies getting Harper. Sooooooo, if Harper is NOT going to San Francisco or San Diego since “generational talents” don’t choose teams who play in parks larger than Yellowstone National Park, and the Nats are not a threat, and the Cubs Kris Bryant, who is best friends with Harper, says they are not getting Harper…then the pretty much leaves Philadelphia.

     As for Machado? Yankees report is being reputed, and I think this was a Lozano plant because he HAS to at least make teams believe the Yankees are in it to get 10-20 million more, and he sure doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to sign with the White Sox sooooo…its likely that IF the Phils decide they want Machado they can sign him for $250 million.

     Look, I know things can change on a dime, but from where I sit today things look good. Oh, and don’t think for one minute that the trade for Realmuto doesn’t help the chances of getting Harper. Harper loves Realmuto and was angry the Nats didn’t get him last year. In fact, the Padres wanted Realmuto in part because they thought it would help them in their pursuit of Harper.

     The Phillies knew this and decided they would make a HUGE run at Realmuto because they thought it would help them in negotiations with Harper. Let’s face it, these guys want to get paid…and they want to win. Harper knows Realmuto makes the Phils stronger…and also KNOWS Trout could be on the way in two years.

     This talk of Philadelphia not being a preferred location just took a big hit with the acquisition of Realmuto a few days ago. This is going to be a very good team in a few years.

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     1. Good info for sure!

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     2. Agreed. I’m been back and forth in if they get both. For the last 45 days I’ve been heavily towards they get 1. With Realmuto … I’m leaning more bCk to 60/40 they get 1. I know Trout is 2 years away, but with the market dropping for both BH/MM… how could they not go for it? Have The star you like less with a 2 year opt out.

        I’m not expecting it, but if It happens at this point, I won’t be surprised. If they sign MM FIRST, the hype will be real. A lineup with both doesn’t need any more SP than they currently have. They’d avg 6.5-7 runs a game. At that point…. do you really need trout?

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        1. Yes. Trout all the way. Trout is the big money maker. Seats, merchandise, National attention. Harper is definitely this if the Phillies sign Harper BUT Trout will be the man.

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217. If Arenado does sign this extension that’s one top off of next year’s FA list.
     If Franco is sticking around it’s a sign that he’s the short term holder for Bohm

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     1. And by the time Bohm is ready, it could be DH time.

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218. You can buy or sell this piece of information … but … according to Hector Gomez, Manny Machado will sign with the White Sox. “Who is Hector Gomez?”, you’re asking. Gomez is a Dominican sports reporter. He has been first with info on other Dominican baseball players in the past. For instance, Gomez was the first to report Robinson Cano would be hit with an 80 game suspension last year. Recently, he was the first to inform that Nelson Cruz would sign with the Twins.
     Here’s the story https://www.barstoolsports.com/chicago/domincan-reporter-hector-gomez-manny-machado-will-sign-with-white-sox Like I said, you can choose to buy or sell. If true, this could mean the end is now in sight for the eventual Phillies-Bryce Harper marriage.

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     1. Manny is American

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        1. I think what Hinkie is referring to is that since Manny’s parents are from the DR , Gomez has the connection with the players who have ancestral ties to that country.

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           1. Romus … yes. Thanks for clearing that up. I think Manny’s father still lives in DR. Manny also played for DR in WBC.

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              1. He did but he played for the USA teams growing up.

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219. Manny to white Sox where he’s never heard from again, Harper to Phils to headline the Philadelphia lumber company. I’m cool with that

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     1. I do not know about that Sr.
        The WSox are on the cusp like the Astros were 4 years ago….add Machado’s bat and glove and if that LFer, Eloy Jimenez explodes on the scene like Soto/Acuna did last year….then they could be right there in the AL-Central with the Indians.
        Their young pitchers will have to step up also…and they have now paid their OJT experience dues

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        1. I was joking. They have some good young players but will always be the other team in chicago

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           1. Oh yes….Cubs come first I suppose in Chicago.
              South siders have to take a back seat.
              But they are tied in total WS rings…three apiece.

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220. Romus- you can book it – the Cubs come 1, 2, 3 in Chicago. South side does not get much attention.

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221. Good chance at 1k comments before the next discussion post!

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222. More from Hector Gomez:

     According to my source #WhiteSox offered him US$250 million for 8 years. https://t.co/EjZ7AMSYms

     — Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) February 9, 2019

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223. More Harper and Giants great meeting reports. Let’s not write off Machado so fast.

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     1. Machado could be a Yankee as well.
        Supposedly it’s all smoke and mirrors. Nothing to see here with the Giants is what I’m told.

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224. As long as Phillies stick with idea that they will top any offer, they should get one. Hard to imagine they will both take less money.

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225. I’m wondering about all of the other FA’s who don’t have contracts due to the Harper/Machado saga. Will there be a mad scramble next week, or will this continue into March? I’m “old school” and believe in the importance of spring training. For the most part the players are already in shape, and don’t need a month and a half to get themselves into baseball shape. With so many players changing teams these days, chemistry and bonding are vital. The 1980 and 2008 teams grew up together. the current Phillies team has only a handful of players who have been together for three years or more. Yes, we need to add Manny or Bryce to our lineup, but every other possible FA signing is overkill. Adding another SP (even if it’s a two year deal) will block the rising prospects. With Nola, Arrieta, and Pivetta as the top three starters, the candidates for the final two spots are Velasquez, Eflin, Eickhoff, De Los Santos, Irvin, and Suarez. The following year will be Medina and Howard.
     Like I said, this team is only missing one piece, and in my opinion Harper is that piece. Back up catcher seems less important with the addition of Realmuto, and Kingery, Quinn, and Williams are the bench.

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     1. I know its a minority opinion but I would swing back and check in on cost of Kimbrel. if you could get him on 2-3 yr deal to build a super bullpen, id consider it

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        1. They will

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        2. Kimbrel and Roberston at the back- end….with Huinter and Neshek and the LOOGYs setting up……and Seranthony as the ‘starter-opener’ every third game.
           Cash and th Rays did it for 55 games….and won over 90 in that AL-east division..

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226. Sr – There’s a real possibility that Velasquez, De Los Santos, or Medina could be in the bullpen at a much lower cost.

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     1. much more realistic. I think VV has a real chance to be in bullpen

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     2. Medina has a 3 potential plus pitch. the only reason he will be moved to the pen is that the Phillies want him to be in majors ASAP. I don’t see this as a possibility given the influx of RHP pen arm in the 40-man.

        The Phillies will transition Anderson, Enyel and Vinny first to the pen before they think of Medina doing it.

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227. According to Todd Z, the Phillies will not pursue Moustakas if they sign either Machado (of course) or Harper. Looking like Franco might stay after all. I had thought Maikel was definitely history. Not so now.

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     1. …and with the Padres apparently moving on from Machado to Moose, it seems like Manny has CWS, PHI and possibly still NYY. If the CWS rumor of $250M is true, I would think he’ll join them. I doubt the Phillies offer exceeds that. But if not….we have room😉

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228. College villa Bakery tagged Harper and harper liked it. Put it in the fwiw department

     https://mobile.twitter.com/CvilleItalBake/status/1094565507343286272

     Also – fake rumor circulating that’s Giants offered 10 year 300mil per @MLB2019insider on twitter

     I’m sure it’ll gain some legs.

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     1. Also in the fwiw dept, hector gomez follows that account so maybe there’s a a chance he’s getting fake info

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     2. TrollU, obviously not a source, but pretty interesting, the photo has only 5 likes. They are . Harper, Boras, Phillies, MLBNetwork, and Kapler.

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        1. Definitely interesting. Probably a nothing burger but still intriguing

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     3. Troll … we’ve been butting heads this weekend, but I give you props for that Collegeville Bakery tweet. I find that fascinating. echockeyman is right. Harper, Boras, Kapler, the Phillies, and MLBNetwork all like it.
        I believe the Phillies and Harper are close to a deal. That’s why we don’t hear the Phillies much involved with Machado of late.

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        1. Looks like I’m an idiot, they were tagged in the photo, didn’t like it. Feels like if that was the case it would’ve gotten way more fanfare. Sorry everyone

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           1. Echo – I’m the idiot too then lol I thought it was liked

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        2. Thanks Hinkie! Trying to add good value!

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229. People on MLBTR grading the trade a B for both Phillies and Marlins.

     I disagree. I say A’s. Here’s why:
     Phillies get a catcher who plays D and offense. Can smash the long ball and it’s been proven and doesn’t strike out a ton.
     Marlins – A
     They have patience to wait for Alfaros upside. And they get two solid pitching prospects.

     Also an A for the Phillies because they only gave up ONE top 5 prospect.

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230. If the Phils current offer to Harper is 8 years at $270M (don’t know if that’s true but it was stated above), and that is the largest offer he has, why do we think the Phils would have to jump to $326M to get this job done because of Stanton’s contract? That would literally be a $56M, or over 20%, increase on a current offer that is the highest in a bad market. At some point Harper will have to decide whether he wants to play or not. The Phils are not going to jump 20% so Boras can claim his guy won the game. If these reports are true of 270 for BH and 220 for MM? Sign them both, go trade Hunter, Neshek, and Franco, and let’s go play.

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     1. Yes. Phillies will pay the amount it takes to get Harper or Machado signed. They shouldn’t/won’t bid against themselves. If it takes 325 or more million to land Harper, they’ll go there. If it only takes 300 million, they’re not going to fork over an additional 25 million to give Boras bragging rights to negotiating the biggest contract ever. IMO, the two sides agree to a front loaded deal with big yearly salaries in the first few years before the player can opt out.

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231. FWIW Dept….Giants said they have not even made an offer to Harper, their discussions last Monday were certainly extensive but money was not discussed. Considering that this number [10/300] is the same as the reported Nats offer, my guess is that it came from Boras.

     Also, both Shadow and 702 said last night not to worry about the Giants, and if you feel the need to worry, it would be the Nats to worry about since A] they know Harper and he knows them and B] they may not relish the idea of seeing their former star player sign with a division rival. Again, its interesting because they don’t each other and are coming at this angle from completely different perspectives, Shadow is friends with a Phillie official and 702 is friends with Harper in Las Vegas, and yet their stories are always very similar.

     The one thing they view differently is when Harper will sign. Shadow [this is from the Phillies perspective] believes it could stretch into the first week of March and 702 [Harper’s view] is that it could happen within a week to 10 days.

     It is worth remembering that Boras called this a couple of weeks ago when he said that teams don’t really get serious until February and thats whats happening. I remain convinced that Boras will not allow Harper to sign until Machado does, its simply not his style. He could be wrong but I still believe he thinks that when Machado signs it will increase the market for Harper as teams [see Phillies, maybe White Sox] begin to panic that they will miss out on both teams.

     I also believe the market is being flushed out now with the latest rumored offers…Machado supposedly has an 8/250 offer from the ChiSox and Harper had this reported 10/300 offer from the Giants. To me, those were both floated by their agents and are signals to clubs that these are the “floors” for each player. In other words, Machado is not taking less that $250 and AAV of 30 million and Harper is not taking less than 300+ million with an AAV of 30+ million.

     One more thing I believe, and this is where it gets a bit scary if you are a Phillie phan [and I think we all are!]. The Phils have been navigating a semi-dangerous game of playing one player against the other and assuming [as our esteemed Hinkie has been insisting] that in the end one will take their money. And this may well play out accordingly. I believe it will.

     BUT, and this is a big but, as this game goes deeper into the late innings it is not impossible to see a scenario where MM goes to the White Sox and Harper simply decides to go back to Washington. If I could compare this to the High School senior ball, it would be as if a guy had two women he wanted to take and basically liked they both. He kept hinting to both of them of his interest until finally a week before the dance one of the ladies got tired of waiting for the formal invitation and took one that was there for the taking. Meanwhile, lady #2 decided she wanted to get back with her old boyfriend and let him know she would go with him. The guy who thought he had either of them ended up staying home.

     I guess what I am saying is that I feel its time to put their best offer forward for BOTH players and hope one of them takes it. If it were me, I would go 10/300 for Machado and revisit that 9/360 for Harper and the first one to accept becomes a Phillie.

     I think think the Phils have kept their offers for both “reasonable” in hopes of maybe getting both at reasonable rates. Shadow [the friend of a Phillie employee] said this was their strategy going in and I am not criticizing it up to now. But if by being conservative, they end up with neither player, this team is going to see a phan backlash that makes the booing of Santa Claus seem like it was a standing ovation.

     Hinkie has been correct that of all the teams with money to spend the Phillies are the most desperate. I think its time to put that desperation into 5th gear.

     Again, I am not pessimistic but I am realistic and I know Scott Boras. He took Adrian Beltre to Seattle when the Dodgers were absolutely sure he would re-sign with them. Boras said it was because the Dodgers never showed Beltre they really wanted him in ways that Boras and his clients value the most….dollar bills.

     Time for the “stupid money” to come out of the chest box.

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     1. CD, great insight. Phillies just need to give their best and final offer instead of playing this cat and mouse game.

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        1. Per MLBTR

           SUNDAY: The Giants plan on making Harper a short-term, big-money offer, but they’re uninterested in giving him a long-term contract along the lines of the 10-year, $300MM proposal he rejected from the Nationals, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

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     2. I have always maintained that the agents and the FAs are waiting to make signing announcements during the start of ST.

        I don’t think that either FA and agent want to be in Philadelphia, NY, Chicago or wherever to answer questions about the process.

        It’s a lot easier to hold a press conference, assimilate into the organization, talk to local press/radio hosts and the fans in a baseball environment not in a cold vacant CBP then parade around cold cities.

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232. Yep, there it is! Giants will probably offer something like 3/110 or 4/120. Now, the question is…does Boras value AAV or that magic $325+ million more? I think its the latter but that is simply me speaking. If I were the Phillies, I would get that 9/360 offer back on the table and dare anyone to beat it.

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     1. I agree. Long term big money is always the best. An aggressive short term deal is a little scary though.

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     2. I’m not sure why the 9/360 would ever need to come back on the table. I would think 9/327 would get Harper in by the start of camp. Record total value, record AAV, and $25-50 million more than any other offer. The first two, I think, are really the only two things preventing him being in by the start of camp as opposed to missing some time.

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233. I can’t imagine boras taking a short term deal. He’ll look like a failure. Free agency is getting harder and harder on players, Harper will be close to 30 then and his stats will suffer hitting in SF. It’s philly or Washington

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234. Now that things are becoming pretty clear [remember Boras said this would happen in February] I will try and pull anyone panicking over the Giants proposed offer off the cliff’s edge.

     Now look, Harper may love San Francisco [the city] so much that he takes the offer. He could and then count on getting back into the market in 3-4 years. This is NOT an impossible scenario, the Giants got Barry Bonds when no one thought they could.

     But, if Harper signs a 3-4 year deal he is basically signing up to play A] for a team that will NOT win the NL West anytime soon and possibly not during the entire length of his contract and B] play 81 games in a ball park that while beautiful is a Dead Man’s Curve for any slugger not on PEDs.

     Harper want to be viewed as a “generational talent” and this means he needs to play in a ball park that can accentuate those “generational talent” numbers…like say 40 home runs a year. Does he have a better chance of doing this in San Francisco or Philadelphia? And with Realmuto and Segura in the fold, this Phillie team is maybe a Harper away from being really good! Harper can see this, he is a baseball historian. Even with Harper the Giants are 10 games behind the Dodgers.

     Oh,and if Trout does leave the Angels he is only going to one place and its not San Francisco. If the Phils are smart, and I hope they are, they are doing everything thisclose to tampering without tampering to suggest that Harper may soon be playing with a guy who is even better than he is. No names mentioned of course! Heck, they could say they are talking about Mickey Moniak! Harper will know who they mean.

     The Phils have some huge cards to play here. Money, hitters ballpark, a phan base that will love him, a young and talented team in a historic city…and oh, there is excellent Trout fishing down the road for a reputed fisherman enthusiast like Harper is said to be.

     Be bold Phillies, be bold. The time has come.

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235. I can’t wait for a new open discussion thread so that I won’t pull a muscle in my thumb from scrolling down. Says my sources anyway.

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     1. 👍🏼

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236. Since apparently Boras wants Harper to get the most, and the last of the two to sign…I’d go balls to the walls for Machado now with the best offer…assuming it is the WSox with the best so far.
     I like to see the Phillies pull the trigger…..and let Boras and Harper stew on whoever is left., which I assume will be the Nationals or the Giants if Harper has any say in the matter.

     It has come down to me as ……let Boras know..he does not run baseball.
     IMO….he is the sole reason the past two off-seasons have been less than desirable marketing for baseball.

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     1. Less than desirable marketing? How so? Some might argue that the uncertainty about the top free agents prolongs intrigue and interest in the off-season. And honestly, in the big picture, how important is off-season marketing anyway? Somehow I think MLB will manage in this new reality.

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        1. Can only tell you what is being reported on the MLB network and thru media outlets.
           1. Other lesser valued FAs are not happy about the slow process in their getting deals done..
           2. Almost 30% of the top 50 by MLBTR have not yet signed with camp opening soon.
           3. The issue was addressed by Tony Clark of the MLBPA a few weeks ago about the lower demand and lower offerings by the teams.

           No kidding….. MLB will survive, that is a given….TV contracts are all in place and its the sport of summer.

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237. Cal D —-You completely got me on that “dead man’s curve” analogy…great stuff ! What’s interesting now is there are 2 actual deals – a short and a long term. Who knows what Washington’s offer is – it appears long but for what sort of discounted $$$$ ?

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238. Shadow talked to his friend with the Phils and got some news…nothing earthshattering but interesting. He was told Boras promised the Phils he would get back to the Phils before any decision was made so the Phils would have a chance to beat the offer and this is why the Phils remain so confident.

     He also said that Middleton is obsessed with getting this deal done and tells his front office people daily that he wants Harper. Phils view the Giants offer like the Lakers viewed the 76ers when they were both recruiting Lebron and both he and 702 [Harper’s friend] said if Harper was going to take a short term, high salary deal they would have done it with the Dodgers.

     Boras wants to set the record, Middleton and the Phils know it and if/when they get there a deal will be struck. Neither reiinterated when they thought a deal could be reached but previously 702 thought within 10 14 days and Shadow thought by first week of March.

     So there you go! Best news is that Middleton WANTS this deal done. I suspect, as Hinkie has mentioned about 1000 times…Phils will not be outbid. If Harper goes elsewhere it will be choice of locale and not money.

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     1. Great info!

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     2. Cal D – Great insight as always from you. I can’t remember if you mentioned it before or not but what sites do Shadow and 702 post at? Just trying to add to the daily list of sites I refresh constantly while we are waiting for them to sign.

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        1. I second that.

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