Finally. One of the deals we have been expecting down in Clearwater has come to fruition. It looks like the Mariners will continue “selling high” and send SS Jean Segura to the Phillies for a package that will include SS J.P. Crawford.
The Phillies will send additional players to complete the trade, but those names haven’t been released yet. Apparently, the Phillies swung talks away from Scott Kingery, who was an early target of the Mariners.
News of an impending trade was first reported by Ken Rosenthal and later announced as completed by Jeff Passan and Bob Nightengale. I’ve expected that this deal would go down since earlier in the weekend. The only concern was who would be packaged with Crawford.
Now, we can wait and see if Patrick Corbin takes “stupid” money to NOT play in New York.
I’ll keep adding to this as more facts become known. But for now, here’s a place for you to talk about the trade.
Deal reported consummated, just waiting for Segura to waive no-trade clause.
Ryan Givish reports that Carlos Santana is part of the deal. Mariners still save $20M.
Phuture Phillies 
Not sure who the phillies gave up for Segura but this is clearly a major upgrade to the team. Both offensively and defensively. I would imagine Segura would fit into the one/two or three hole in the line up. Curious to see who else is included in this trade
LikeLike
JP Crawford looks to be part of the deal. Not sure who else the Phillies are giving up. Some reports that Franciso Morales will be included, but that Scott Kingery is NOT included.
LikeLike
Hopefully Irvin is not part of deal.
LikeLike
Thank you, Jim! Is there any clarity on what Segura’s contract status would be if this turns out to be true?
LikeLike
Segura comes with a pretty team friendly contract. He’s guaranteed four more years (2019-2022) at 14.85 mil AAV. He also has an option year (2023) at 17 million or a 1 million dollar buyout.
LikeLike
Segura is controlled for 4 years at $14.25 per year. That club control is a big part of his appeal/value for the Phillies. And the trade has been announced as official, just don’t know all the details.
LikeLike
That’s $14.25M per year, though I see Hinkie’s number is slightly higher ($14.85/year). In any event, a lot more than 14 dollars and 25 cents.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Correct, it’s why I think Brantley will be first to sign with the Phils.
LikeLike
Santana is part of the deal as well, which seems a bit strange unless the Phils are taking back Jay Bruce’s brand-new contract (or Mike Leake’s, possibly?). If the Phils are not absorbing a hefty contract from the Mariners, then you would have to assume someone like Medina is also headed to Seattle; Crawford and Santana alone are not getting 4 years of Segura.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t expect it to be someone as highly regarded as Medina but again we shall see.
LikeLike
well…I was SUPER wrong about that! wow. Crawford & Santana got 4 years of Segura and more…thought for sure a AAA arm at least would be going back to Seattle. So, now that the Phillies didn’t have to dip into their prospect pool to swing this trade, it opens the door to go big for a guy like Kluber, does it not? I didn’t see TWO big trades for the Phillies this offseason because I can’t see them depleting their system in a complete win-now maneuver, but now that the first BIG trade didn’t really use any of their ammunition, they are still fully stocked up for an even bigger one now…that seems to be an angle nobody’s really talking about, as an interesting consequence of getting Segura for only Crawford and Santana…
LikeLike
Interesting deal – makes the Phillies better immediately and Crawford and Santana were odd men out anyway – I expect a Phillies relieved to be included in this deal and hope it isn’t Neris. We shall see.
LikeLike
Chalk one up for Klentak. This is a very good deal, provided we aren’t losing a top prospect (like Medina) or future building block (like Kingery). However, if so I would think the Phillies might kick in $5M-$10M for sending Santana.
I’m a little curious as to why Seattle hadn’t already secured Segura’s ok to waive his no trade unless they were under the impression he would. I wonder if and who else from the M’s is coming here.
LikeLike
Jon Heyman hears the Phillies will pursue Harper FIRST, not Machado.
LikeLike
How does he know? Trust me, the Phils aren’t talking. I would be very surprised
LikeLike
He has sources, Murray. I don’t. Do you?
LikeLike
No I do not but I don’t believe these guys all have legit sources. Agents give comments strategically to writers, as do the team’s by the way, but it’s all part of the game.
LikeLike
Jon Heyman has been doing this for, I believe, literal decades. He absolutely has sources.
LikeLike
Everyone is reporting that Segura will play SS but they need to slow their roll. He played 2B a few years ago for the entire season and if letting Manny play SS is a requirement for signing him…..
LikeLike
No chance the Phillies would do this. Hernandez/Kingery can’t play third.
LikeLike
Agreed but Cesar is getting traded and there are other 3B available, and they’ve already had Kingery as the super sub that seems to be in vogue now. I’m just saying that it still allows for the signing of Manny
LikeLike
I feel like they want Segura at SS and Manny at 3B. Segura isn’t enough of an upgrade on Hernadnez if they wanted a 2B in my view.
LikeLike
I agree that they want Segura at SS as well, but he is a tremendous upgrade over Hernandez at any position.
LikeLike
I think Manny has lost his leverage in demanding to play ss, thanks in part to his less than appealing postseason.
LikeLike
Can Phillies convince Machado to play third? If not go hard for Harper. Hoskins must play 1st. Need to move Hernandez and Franco if Machado signed.
LikeLike
If 350 mil can’t convince him, I’m not sure what will.
LikeLike
Exactly. If he’s that dead set on playing shortstop that he’d turn down that much money kudos to him.
LikeLike
Finally some movement, still a lot of speculation in terms of who plays where, who’s next, and who’s included. Very much looking forward to how it shakes out.
Stinks Crawford is going but it is a major win in terms of making sure the Phillies SS position gets the player and production they thought Crawford’s ceiling would be. Now we just need to see all the details. Dumping Santana would be huge
LikeLike
Tac3…agree about JPC….all the years we followed him up the ladder and expectations were so high for him. Just had the impression the current manager and FO had really soured on him….that I guess is the business of baseball..
LikeLike
I will say, I think JP eventually comes close to reaching his ceiling, batting wise. He always seems to be two steps behind where the FO/phans want him to be offensively, and then he “gets it.” With this belief, id still make the trade, as it should provide good insurance against JP not developing. I’ll miss the “homegrown” aspect, and watching home a group of players developed and won through the minors … but this is a good move for the franchise and it’s timeline for contention. 5 years of an Allstar in his prime, not bad for Crawford’s potential
LikeLike
Does play into what Middleton had said three years ago when he hired Macphail/Klentak..wanted the now, and the 5-year plan to synchronize….and if it works out as they hope Garcia comes in as Segura begins his exodus.
LikeLike
Now we are talking!
LikeLike
One report said Segura and players to Philly
Wonder if Phillies kicked in some extra money for santana to get a good prospect.
LikeLike
It has been really important for the Phillies to make a major move prior to the winter meetings. Not only does it put it in the category of the Braves’ and Mets’ upgrades, it signals to Machado/Harper, etc., and even Corbin/Happ, etc. that they don’t have to be the first to sign on. Great trade, also, if Santana is included. This is a trade that is addition by addition and addition by subtraction, if Carlos is included.
LikeLike
Just wondering what minor league pitcher (s) Klentak has offered up…Sixto, or Medina, or Triple A or 2A guys?
LikeLike
Again, at one time there was smoke that Francisco Morales was part of the deal.
LikeLike
Will be interesting to see Gabe and his band of double A coaches try to change Segura. He only walks about 30 times a year. They will turn him into 2018 Odubel
LikeLike
Lets hope not….he does K few times also as J tweets
Jayson Stark…………@jaysonst
Hitters with 600+ PA in 2018 & under 70 strikeouts:
Jean Segura 69 (632 PA)
Michael Brantley 60 (630 PA)
Andrelton Simmons 44 (600 PA)
11:07 PM – Dec 2, 2018
LikeLike
Interesting point an worth watching if they try to change him. Agreed it would be a mistake.
LikeLike
Don’t even want to think about them changing Segura’s hitting style. Can’t mess with success can you?
LikeLike
Yeah it makes zero sense to mess with it. I don’t think that’s something we have to worry about.
LikeLike
This trade lines up the shortstop position perfectly. We get Segura in his prime and buy time for Garcia to develop as his replacement. Should be mlb ready by end of Segura’s current contract.
As for JP, personally I believe that we are selling high on him. I think that his defensive tools are only average. Nothing elite IMO. And I don’t think that he will ever be much of a hitter. No power and while he has a good eye, struggles to consistently drive the ball.
LikeLike
Your description is spot on, on all accounts, most specifically defense. Nothing elite whatsoever. Very good, clear-eyed, analysis.
LikeLike
I’ve been saying this for 3 years now and get slammed everytime I do but now it’s spot on . . . 🤷🏼♂️
LikeLike
I’ve been right there with you saying it, and also getting slammed.
LikeLike
Guess we are the only 2 (or 3 but I always thought vag1 was a fan) . . . I thought he would stall at AAA but it really started in AA. Felt that his walks were a product of the pitching just not having the command/control that they do at the upper levels and he had a good eye. Don’t think it was necessarily his approach, I think that’s 2 different things. Anyways I’m beating a dead horse, wish him luck w the M’s.
LikeLike
Read somewhere that DiPoto wanted Kingery but K wouldn’t budge. We will see details but my guess is Phils send some money too with Santana ?
LikeLike
Keeping my fingers crossed that Matt K does not give in on the what his former boss Dipoto wants as for pitcher or pitchers, if they are part of the return package.
I guess Dipoto asked for Sixto or Medina or even Howard, as he should have…..perhaps Klentak will persuade it to be Enyel De Los Santos, who they signed in 2014
LikeLike
Long time reader and first time poster – Jean Segura to the Phillies in exchange for 1B/DH Carlos Santana SS JP Crawford OF RHP Fransisco Morlales and RHP Spencer Howard. (Just a rumor so far…)
LikeLike
I did see Morales’ name earlier this morning. Haven’t seen Spencer Howard’s. That would not make me happy.
LikeLike
If Spencer Howard is in that deal security should immediately escort McPhail and Klentak out of CBP
LikeLike
Howard would hurt, but you have to give something to get something. I hope it is not Howard though.
What are you guys OK with giving up? The. Bump it some more.
How about they include Cornelius instead of Howard 🙂
LikeLike
I would rather give up 10 million dollars, than Howard or Morales. I would though include Cornelius and Santos instead. We have a surplus of #4 and #5s.
LikeLike
Agreed – neither Howard, nor Sixto nor Medina should be part of this trade. I will be livid if they threw Howard into this deal. Mark my words, he is going to become a good MLB starter at worst and may even end up as a star. And, yeah, I hope you’re reading this Mr. Howard – I believe in your son.
LikeLike
@Dlite14, what/who’s the source of your rumor??? My sources say this rumor is wrong.
LikeLike
Just a rumor and speculation from the Mariners side – their trying to determine who the other the prospect(s) are? Names are being tossed around.
LikeLike
@Dlite14 – if it is coming from the local Mariners side —- it is expected that multiple Top 10 prospects will be tossed around. It’s not a rumor. it’s a chatroom dialogue similar to some Mariners fans saying “if the Phillies want King Felix, they should tat least give up Sixto and some more…” or Phillies fan suggesting the Klentak should get at least a young controllable MOR for Cesar.
LikeLike
If it is the current deal constructed tweeted by Salisbury – I am happy with it and a strong first move by Klentak.
LikeLike
@Dlite14 – just to confirm, are you implying that the JPC + Morales + Howard for Segura rumor you mentioned came from a Salisbury tweet? Because I don’t see any of it.
LikeLike
In response to below KK. No – Mariners side stating they were pushing for a pitching prospect and speculation started.
In regards to Klentak and Salisbury tweet – current trade of JPC + Santana for Segura + RP to even out salaries. Strong move by Klentak. IMO – Need to keep a positive club house and culture though – Santana was great in that regard!
LikeLike
Sad day for me as JP was my favorite prospect. I’m not sure why I felt attached to him but c’est la vie. I’ll be routing for him.
Segura is a nice player so depending on who else is in the deal it make us better no doubt.
LikeLike
DMAR……I do hope Segura has hung up his boxing gloves after his last bout three months ago vs featherweight Dee Gordon. Brewers and DBacks moved on from him for whatever reasons they had, now it is Seattle’s turn…though Dipoto trades most everybody usually one time. It twill be interesting to see how the clubhouse is come August.
LikeLike
JP has consistently been the most overrated Phillies prospect since I started following baseball in the 90s. Good upgrade by Klentak!
LikeLike
I think Dom Brown may qualify for that award also…he did make it to the top 5 of many of the nationals.
LikeLike
At least he had SOME success in the majors.
LikeLike
Dom Brown made an MLB all-star team.
LikeLike
No, he really wasn’t overrated until he hit trouble at AA. He still could end up being a really good player, he just probably won’t become a star.
LikeLike
Lol he really wasn’t overrated until he reached AA and AAA where he could not hit. Right!
LikeLike
No, his projections in the lower minors were very solid and he still has a very good chance to be a major league player. And, after a little while, he did adjust just fine in AAA and should ultimately adjust in the big leagues. So yeah for a little while he was seen as being elite when he was less than that, but right now, he could very well be underrated – he’s only 23 and he’s not a bust – at least not yet. He was hurt last year so it’s hard to make much of his season, but at times he showed some pretty impressive power that I never expected to see from him.
LikeLike
Agree…..just look no further than his 2nd half numbers at LHV in 2017.
JPC can be a very solid MLB player and hopefully the Phillies will not come to regret the decision to trade him.
LikeLike
The rest of this deal is interesting:
If Seattle takes Santana, and the Phillies pay 5-10 mil of this salary, then the Phillies shouldn’t have to include a prospect like Medina . That said, it doesn’t make sense for Seattle to take the money vs getting prospects back in, for a team going into a rebuild mode – partial or full blown. Of course seattle’s Owners may not be willing to buy prospects the way the Phillies did in their rebuild. I would say that is a mistake on their part if so.
All this said, I get the feeling that the final deal is going to “hurt” a bit in terms of prospects… Crawford and Santana and a non top 5 prospect for Segura sounds like a fleecing
LikeLike
Unless they somehow worked Haniger into the deal…
LikeLike
It just sounds to good to be true, or rather negligence on Seattle’s FO. My fandom is going nuts trying to figure it out, they need to release the details. Essentially as long as it’s not Sixto, Medina, Howard, Garcia, Hasley, Moniak … I’m pretty good. If it has to be one of the pitchers, let it be Medina, but that is a hellva price to pay. If they sign Corbin from the money savings, then it helps ease the pain, since they have a SP spot locked up.
Will see, it is exciting times in the land of the Phillies, never seen anything like this in 30+ years
LikeLike
Honestly, I don’t care if it’s Moniak (sorry, I don’t) – I would care if it’s Haseley who I think is going to become a pretty good player.
LikeLike
Ryan Divish, one of the Mariners’ beat guys, implies Santana will be moved this off-season or at the trade deadline….so they will take on a portion of his contract for at least 4 months. Phillies still could assist in the money.
Who of the three are you willing to give up Medina, Sixto or Spencer Howard?
Because it is pointing in that direction…i prefer to keep them all.
LikeLike
@Romus…JP for Segura straight up with low level pitching should have been enough on its own to land Segura. If any of those names you mention above are part of the deal and you’re sending Santana with money that is a fleecing by Dipoto on MK.
LikeLike
Well if that was the case, I’d assume the Mets would have taken Segura in their trade as well.
I think it is going to hurt. It sounds like:
Crawford,Morales, Medina and Santana to me for Segura + a middling prospect. He is a two time Allstar with 5 years of control. It’s going to be a high price. He should bat .300 with a bump back towards his power numbers at CPB.
Will see, I hope you are right, but i believe it is going to hurt vs it being a fleecing by klentak
LikeLike
The trade you proposed is a disaster. I will despise the trade if they gave up that much in the way of assets, for a good, not great, shortstop.
LikeLike
I tend to agree. Maybe not a disaster, but sure seems like an overpay.
LikeLike
Tough decision. Based on the Phillies timeline, and Sixto’s healths concerns, I’d say Seattle wants Medina. Howard is good to keep with the understanding the Phils will sign a FA SP, allowing him to develop or use as a trade chip 3 years from now.
If includingbSixto needs up the return, i wouldnt think hard about including him, to sell high with his health concerns and potential move to bullpen (speculation)
I’ll throw a curveball to you, That said, if the Phils sign Harper or Brantley … Would you go Crawford,Hasley, Santana for Segura + low grade prospect?
LikeLike
Tac you are confusing me. I’d be ok with the reported Crawford and Morales for Segura and that’s it. Segura is a nice player but he’s bounced around for a reason.
Now if there is more to the deal (meaning Haniger is coming back) then yes I’d send Santana with some money and another pitcher (one of Sixto/Medina) but I’d be loathe to include Howard.
LikeLike
To clarify, I’m would not include Howard, but it sounds like the Phils need to let one of sixto,Medina, or Howard go. Obviously, I hope not, but again you need to give to get. I can’t see it just being Crawford/Santana for Segura. That’s like a dream trade.
Ultimately, I think you are discounting Segura’s 5 years of control for a relatively team friendly contract. To me it’s going to cost one of the pitchers we don’t want to give up. Hopefully Morales is enough… but I doubt it.
LikeLike
I don’t think they are going to add a top 10 prospect to this trade. I’m thinking maybe a guy like Ramos or Llovera and a second tier starter like Suarez or Irvin.
LikeLike
Not discounting it (the team control) but it is close to $50 million. DiPoto is clearly tearing it down. Segura has a no trade clause so that hurts DiPoto’s leverage. I’m sure Segura has given DiPoto a handful of teams he will waive it for. Assuming the Phillies are a team he said yes to DiPoto can’t get too greedy.
We’ll see I guess. No way to give it its fair shake until it is fully announced.
LikeLike
I don’t think that Klentec will send money in the deal. If he does that, he admits he made a bad move bringing in Santana.
Therefore, another prospect (a high one) is probably included. I just hope it isn’t Haseley. Haseley will be a solid MLBer.
LikeLike
no chance we arent taking back Seager and his contract in exchange for Santana and his contract?
LikeLike
Doubt that is the case (seen zero about it), but is an interesting possibility.
LikeLike
Reading on twitter Phillies could be getting along Felix. Probably just a rumor.
LikeLike
King*
LikeLike
He’s awful now – they would immediately have to waive him. God I hope they are not taking on that baggage.
LikeLike
Looks to be just a rumor
No mention of him in the completed trade
LikeLike
KIngery was said to be off the table.
JPC and Morales are same names i hear and the Santana inclusion was secondary agreement that Klentak will compensate by adding a Top 30 prospect. Irvin is also a name that initially floats (not sure from Dipot or Klental) but it died down quickly.
My proposal is JPC + DLS plus a throw in like Jose Gomez for Segura. If Santana is to be included, then send Brito and another arm like David Parkinson.
LikeLike
If the phillies are kicking in $$$ why would they need to throw in a top 10 prospect? Doesn’t make sense…..Unless we are getting more back in the deal.
LikeLike
Good morning Jean. This is Matt Klentack. Welcome to Philly. Can’t wait to pencil you in at either second , short or third. It will depend on where Scotty wants to play. He had a hell of a rookie season. Hold on Jean – Gabe Kapler wants to say hi
Jean – Gabe here. Excited to see you this spring representing the most beautiful body just like Odubel did last year. One thing I need you to work on is getting the count to 0-2. Cesar and Odubel really bought into that last year. I know you might think that their collective batting averaged decreased by 90 points but what u need to know is they made opposing pitchers throw 400 more pitches!! Scottie is also very good at this. Looking forward to seeing you
LikeLike
We take Swarzak back once Mets deal is official.
LikeLike
Good with that…..as long as Spencer H is not headed west.
LikeLike
Agreed – they can bring Swarzak to ST – if he’s good, they keep him. If he’s bad they eat salary and who cares?
LikeLike
I have knocked Kapler before, but there is no way they are bringing Segura here to change him. The rumor I saw had Segura plus someone. Could it be Bruce or King Felix? From our end, I am not trading Sixto, Medina or Howard. If we are eating $ then Morales is it.
LikeLike
Matt13….we take on Swarzak and his $7M for 2019 also it apears.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swarzan01.shtml
LikeLike
Yeah this is better than giving up a prospect, but man a bullpen with Swarzak, Hunter, and Neshak is a lot of money invested in mediocrity. Hopefully Swarzak continues the alternating good year bad year trend he has had his whole career.
LikeLike
Just my opinion … but … I think Tommy Hunter is going to bounce back and have a very good 2019.
LikeLike
Relief pitching is so volatile that it would not shock me if all three have excellent seasons. The problem is that in this new era of heavy relief pitcher usage carrying a lot of these types of contracts hurts one’s flexibility of deepening the bullpen by running the MLB/AAA bullpen train.
LikeLike
I have a reason to believe that both Neshek and Hunter underperform in 2018 due to injuries. If both are healthy, they will be contributors and potential trade chips in 2019.
LikeLike
I can definitely see them as contributors but if the are trade chips something will have gone horribly wrong. They have little value right now and it would seem unlikely that they would be traded midseason unless the Phillies fall out of contention.
LikeLike
Nightengale said Segura and Swarzak fpr Crawford, Santana and prospect.
Specifically, major league players and one prospect.
LikeLike
I mentioned over the weekend … “Who exactly are the Phillies battling with for Jean Segura?” John Heyman tweets his market was limited.
IMO, Klentak shouldn’t have to give up anything more than what the NYY forked over for 2 years of James Paxton. Paxton was in far greater demand. Justus Sheffield = JP Crawford + one back end top 30 prospect and a non ranked prospect. The talk of Sixto, Medina, or Howard is crazy IMO.
LikeLike
Sources flip-flopping between Swarzak and Nicasio as pitcher included by Mariners.
LikeLike
Phillies sending anybody else?
LikeLike
Looks like no Medina, Romero, Eflin, etc in the deal. Wonder if we’re taking and cutting Felix?
LikeLike
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
More Jayson Stark Retweeted Bob Nightengale
Sources say Swarzak isn’t part of this deal, but #Mariners are sending the #Phillies a veteran player who can help even out the money Seattle is taking on in Santana (2 years, $35M).
now no Swarzak
LikeLike
Heyman and Nightengale say Swarzak in the deal but Stark says it is Nicasio. Nicasio makes sense to me as Swarzak is dependent on another deal getting done.
LikeLike
Might Pazos be included ??? Lefty bullpen P….
LikeLike
Send $$$$ & Cigars, no young players 8 in deals.
LikeLike
With the Segura deal, the Phillies simultaneously upgraded their defense in 1B-SS-LF. Going back to his natural 1B position, I believe that this will give Rhys some mental edge that will translate to better metrics and performance in 2019.
I followed JPC since he was drafted so he will be missed since I always believe that he is a better player than his 2018 version.
MattWinks brought up Pazos being a LH pen which every Phillies fan will say due to the lack of LHR. But Pazos is under control for 4 years so Mariners will not let him go unless Klentak will additional Top 10/20 prospects. If Dipoto will send another player (assuming its pitching), it will be to offset $$ not to give up talent —- so think of Nicasio, Swarzak, Leake or King Felix — as JimP said earlier, it’s either Swarzak or Nicasio.
LikeLike
Just now reading this… If Spencer is included that would be a sad day in that he loves the Phillies organization and would miss the friends that he has made (he is currently in Clearwater for strength camp). Only a trade with my Dodgers is OK be me!
LikeLike
I don’t expect Spencer Howard as part of the trade package. I think Klentak has less attachments with prospects drafted/acquired by the RAJ regime — JPC, Williams, Franco, Cesar, Doobie are all RAJ acquisitions and their names has been expected and floating around in the whispering lanes.
LikeLike
I think he will stay happily in the fold. I hope he’s hitting the weights hard though, this is the time to do it.
LikeLike
Mr. Howard, I wish I could put your mind completely at ease. But, I’ve heard that the Phillies will include a low minors pitcher in the deal. That would be a pitcher from Clearwater-Lakewood-Williamsport, almost certainly a starting pitcher, and more likely from Clearwater or Lakewood than Williamsport.
I can’t say that Seattle hasn’t asked about Spencer, but I believe the talks have moved on to other pitchers. This saddens me. I develop an emotional attachment to players as they enter the organization that doesn’t diminish until they reach Reading. For what it’s worth, I think your son is safe.
LikeLike
David Parkinson or Will Stewart will be the most likely target by Dipoto is he is going to choose from A/A+ rotation arms. Both have very good 2018. Bailey Falter (who I like better than Parkinson or Stewart) is another option – but Dipoto might settle with Parkinson or Stewart.
LikeLike
The pitcher coming back is just to balance money out a bit. I guess Santana has a lot more value than some of you thought, his salary is just too high. The pitcher coming back is the same as putting money in the deal except you have a chance they show you something in spring training to make the team. If not, you cut them.
LikeLike
No, he has value, just not as much as he was being paid. But he made sense for both teams in a trade like this as he was an impediment to Rhys Hoskins at first. Just wondering about other minor leaguers – would not be happy if this includes a top 10 farm system guy – aside from that it would be fine, even if there are a couple of guys included. For example, I’m fine if Del Los Santos is included.
LikeLike
LikeLike
This Seguera deal makes me wonder what the FO plans for thirdbase are? I believe they are going after Harper over Machado for marketability reasons. I think the idea of getting both is a pipe dream unless MM really has killed his market with his comments. I don’t quite get this because Harper has been far less consistent than Machado, Harper is not Johnny Hustle either (Jim brought up the choking incident), and Harper hasn’t played defense since his rookie year.
LikeLike
Moustakas wouldn’t be a bad add. Kingery could get some time at 3rd against lefties assuming Hernandez isn’t traded.
2B Heranandez
SS Segura
RF Harper
1B Hoskins
3B Moustakas
CF Quinn
LF Hererra
C Alfaro
Pitcher
Would be a lot more potent especially if Odubel bounces back.
Although I think this might be a better line up worth pursuing:
CF Quinn
SS Segura
LF Brantley
3B Machado
1B Hoskins
RF Hererra
2B Kingery
C Alfaro
Pitcher
Regardless, I think they need two more hitters. I’d also like to see Cesar moved but I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world if we keep him.
LikeLike
What is the difference between Moustakas and Franco? Wouldn’t you end up just paying more money to an older player for the same type of production?
LikeLike
I believe Moustakas is better defensively, I also don’t see it taking a large commitment. Maybe a 2-3 year deal at a low AAV based on what he accepted last year. I also think they could use another lefty power bat in addition to Harper in this scenario.
Theoretically Franco would be moved to fill another need in this scenario. Certainly open to keeping him if we get Harper though.
LikeLike
Agree with this. I think Franco could see a big jump in numbers next season with more protection around him in the lineup. I’d obviously prefer Manny — but that is far from a guarantee. I don’t think that Moose offers anything Franco can’t. Franco has his youth and a low financial cost to the team.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t be upset with continuing with Franco if they decide to go that route, it just seemed like with JP they wanted to move on from him.
LikeLike
Context on that ‘no hustle/cjhoke scene’ with Harper…last week of the season , Nats eliminated, Pphillies ponding them by a half-dozoen or so runs, late in the game, pop-up to LF , his last AB at Nationals Park for the year……I get the frustration…it wasn’t laziness…..he does bust it.
LikeLike
This makes the next move so interesting . . .
Do you settle w a left side of Segura/Franco and go after Harper?
Or do you want a left side of Segura/Manny and go after Brantley for the OF upgrade?
Orrrr do you get “Stupid” with a left side of Manny/Segura and Harper upgrading the OF.
One can argue that this trade gives you ever more reason to go after all 3 (Harper – opt out 2023, Manny AND Brantley) and trade excess to upgrade(s) the rotation.
LikeLike
my preference is to go “stupid” and sign both Harper and Machado since the Segura doesn’t really affect both Harper and Machado. If Manny insists on SS and the forced to obliged, then Segura moved to 2B and 3B will be a combination of Franco (if not traded) or Kingery. If Harper is signed, the Brantley move will be explored if Klentak move one of the OF — most likely Williams or Doobie. To sum this up:
Phillies go stupid mode: INF = 1B Hoskins, 2B Kingery, SS Segura, 3B Machado
or if Machado insists on playing SS
Phillies go stupid mode: INF = 1B Hoskins, 2B Segura, SS Machado, 3B Kingery
I have a good source that told me that Dipoto initially asked for Kingery (or one of the young arms) during the early discussion which Klentak said “Hell NO!!” So IMO, Kingery will play a big part of the future roster which almost assure that Cesar will be moved.
If the last week thread, i will explore the Cesar for Sonny Gray swap since NYY is also certain to move on from Gray.
LikeLike
I like your stupid!
LikeLike
KK, sorry but my preference is opposite. I still ‘prefer’ neither MM or BH. (I’m okay with BH if Middleton insists on one.)
What is wrong with an offseason of signing Pollock (or Brantley), trading for Segura, and signing or trading for a good/great SP and RP? (And maybe getting 3B like Moose if you are that fed up with Franco, although I’m fine with keeping Maikel.)
Personally, I love not giving out a 10+ year contract. The only near-sure-thing is that it will become an albatross either sooner or later.
Also, I believe Pollock (or Brantley – though I really prefer Pollock – even with his QO), plus Segura, plus another year for all the young guys, plus getting Hoskins out of OF and giving Quinn starting nod, would improve the lineup and defense significantly! (…I also want to see Kingery at 2B!)
LikeLike
John K…these 10 year contracts will be to 26-year olds….not the typical Al Pujols 30/31- year old. So yuo get 4/5 extra years of prime and peak production….hopefully.
LikeLike
Romus, I don’t believe being 26 matters.
Soon, someone is going to demonstrate how the stats show a “dropoff” after a certain number of years, games, ABs, whatever. The proof is all over. If the player comes up at 19 or 20, it just means he’s likely to wear down sooner. Pujols is a great example. His numbers had already begun to downtick in age 31 and 32 seasons and then fell off much more as he became just a power hitter (never smelled .300 BA again or 1.000 ops, or .900 or .800 even). Heck Griffey was really no longer a stud after his age 32 season. (injuries contributed to his slow down)
Bodies wear down over time, especially at high level that top players play.
I don’t care if the player is 26. I’m telling you, 10 year contracts to players who have already played 7 years is foolish! The contract will be an albatross, it’s only question of sooner or later.,
So, I’ll pass! Please give me 4 (or maybe 5) years of Pollock or Brantley at much much more reasonable price.
LikeLike
@John K – I will be with Romus on this. Machado and Harper are not your ordinary FAs — they are legitimate studs and are close to their prime years. Legitimate studs + prime years = Superstar — i don’t know what’s hard to understand about that. Also, the 10-year is not straight up 10-years. Both sides (teams and players) will put protections in their contract structure. Machado/Harper will ask for multiple opt outs to maximize their earning potential while teams will work on AAV, scale and insurance.
Brantley and Pollock are definitely cheaper because there will be no upside anymore it will be flat and downwards. Also, having Machado/Harper in the line up will give the Phillies more national coverage, more ticket sales, concessions, more brand sales, cable feeds go up, etc., etc.
You are just being cheap if you think Brantley/Pollock are better options than a Machado/Harper.
LikeLike
KK, I’m expressing my opinion and I’m giving historical examples to support. I’m not being cheap. You can disagree but I’m not sure why you can’t understand my position.
Honestly, I could care less about merch sales. If that’s what we’re supposed to be rooting for then that’s a surprise to me.
The Phillies have handcuffed themselves before and the Angels and other teams have handcuffed themselves worse. I’d rather not sacrifice the future just for a splash today.
As I’ve said, I’m okay with them signing one of the big two (BH) if necessary, but I’d personally ‘prefer’ they instead invest in Pollock and use some money now on other smart moves AND in the future on more wise investments (considering both s/t and l/t). The savings of $320M and the lack of an anchor contract in some/all of years 6-10 seems like a smart consideration to me. …But I can respect you have a different opinion, although I disagree.
LikeLike
@John K – you look at historical examples but your analogy is not comparable. when is the last time that at least 2 premiere young and elite talents are available in FA??? This offseason is historical by itself, so this is not the time to be cheap!
Middleton is also a different animal than the previous owners. It’s true that fans shouldn’t care about merchandise, etc but the Phillies is a business — bottom line (net income) and cash flows are important to decision makers as this is their life support. Everybody in Philadelphia heard what Middleton said —- they will spend and they can be crazy about it. Middleton knows that if the Phillies will not sign a big FA this offseason (like the smart move you are suggesting), he knows that there will be negative feedback from fans. Angry fans = less revenue. Less revenue = income/cash to Middleton’s pocket.
Your smart move are not necessary a smart move. Most GMs target this offseason for a purpose. If you look at historical events as you said, you should notice that McPhail and Klentak cleared and avoided long term payroll commitments so that they will have payroll flexibility starting to offseason. All of those non-commitment moves/no moves and savings that McPhail-Klentak did that frustrates most fans are because they reserved all their bullets specifically to spend for this offseason. So simply, the smart moves (ergo cost savings) that you are talking about – Klentak already started implementing it since he was hired.
LikeLike
I generally disagree with John K on this specific instance but the last 26 y/o star to become a free agent…Jason Heyward.
LikeLike
There’s no ‘reply’ option after KK’s last comment so I’m replying here.
I completely understand your comments and don’t disagree. I agree this is a different offseason than most. I agree Middleton is a different animal. I get baseball is a business. I agree that moves have been made in prep for this offseason.
However, all of that is just context for this offseason and what is “likely” to happen. If we’re talking about what is “likely” to happen, then we are 100% in unison. That’s why I keep repeating that if Middleton insists on signing one of the two then I hope it’s Harper.
However, my posts have been about my “opinion” of what they “should” do. If I were GM I would not sign MM or BH to a 10 year, $400M (or close) contract.
I believe such a contract is risky and foolish AND (IMO) there is smarter strategy for this offseason that might make it a great success in both the short-term and long-term!
For any one exception, there are dozens if not hundreds of examples of stud players not being to keep their high-level performance up for 12 or 14 or 17 years! It just does not happen. And while I get that these two guys are younger than the typical F/A who has played 7 years and wants a 10 year contract, I stand by my opinion that AGE is not as important as TIME played. (This will be written about in years to come as there is too much proof for it not to eventually come out as it has in football. And I know football is different but we’re still talking about playing long seasons at elite levels.) Using Pujols and even Griffey as examples, there is proof that even at age 27, these studs only had about 5 years left at their same stud level. The wear and tear on the bodies of all great players (and possibly a decrease in motivation and ‘edge’ over time due to money or families, etc) will stunt their production by early 30s, unlike players who come up to MLs in their mid 20s.
Show me all the examples of huge, longterm contracts (after a player became a f/a) that have worked out well? Or show me the player who performed amongst the true elite in the league for over a dozen years? …If any exist they are incredible outliers.
I’m simply saying there’s another path that is smart! (not “cheap”).
And btw, I’m a believer in Pollock! He’s a great player and I think he’s got some huge seasons left in him given he’s played less time than BH or MM and he’s shown flashes of being one of the best in all baseball. …It’s just my opinion of being ‘smart’ and getting the most for all resources so you can max resources …and save them for Trout if you like! 🙂
LikeLike
I’m with you guys, you say have past history but you don’t bc these are different players. And I don’t know if I agree with the games played thing, for a pitcher I can get the argument, maybe even a catcher but not position players. Just my opinion.
LikeLike
John K…..you are spot on with LTC at 8/10 years not working out at the the end of the contract.
And every owner/GM knows that…..but that is the current business trend in baseball….well until last season
Last off season may have started an evolution reversing that trend….with the late signings and shorter length contracts for layers in their late 20s and early 30s.
metric proves the decline for all players after sometime in the 30 age bracket….sans PED era guys.
But in Manny and Harper…at their current age….you can get an added 4/5 years of prime production….which can can make an owner rationalize on a 10 year deal.
LikeLike
I think I would opt for Harper and if the M’s are in sell mode try to pry Haniger away from them.
to do that I would offer to take Seagar off their hands. I’m assuming Bohm is going to come along fast and for cheap. Seager is owed $57.5 mil over the next 3 seasons. I’d pick up Matt Davidson on the cheap as a platoon partner for Seager. He’s got pop and he can pick it over at 3B.
I’m sending them Franco in the deal and probably a really good starting pitcher not named Howard.
LikeLike
I hear Klentak inquired about Haniger too but the priced deemed too high due to 4 years of control. Is Alec Bohm + Kyle Seager’s $72.5M contract for Haniger enough to make Dipoto’s change his mind? Since Klentak was hired, absorbing LT contracts is not his MO so I doubt Klentak will explore that. Reasonably, Dipoto can tell Klentak I want Pivetta, Medina and Bohm for Mitch Haniger and Klentak will change topic and talk the Segura involving Carlos Santana trade again.
LikeLike
The last year on Seagar is an Option Kuko so its really closer to the $57.5 mil plus maybe $3 mil in a buyout on the 4th year.
For me Haniger is worth that price. If Manny is going to cost you $300 million why not.
It might not be MKs MO but he should possibly learn to make it his MO.
If I’m Dipoto you could tempt me to do that deal by adding Medina, or DLS.
LikeLike
@DMAR – if you are going to ask me, I’m OK with that too. But like I said, it is not Klentak’s style — even if he learns to embrace that MO, it will take him a while not overnight. I can see Klentak justifying to Middleton to use the Seager’s $$ to sign a combination of Britton/Miller and Happ/Morton.
The issue with Haniger is that the Phillies will have more competition which swings the favor to Dipoto’s hand. ATL is in need of a cost efficient OF to team with Inciarte and Acuna and ATL has a lot of power arms that will force Klentak to cough at least 2 tops arms on top of absorbing a bad contract. SD is there too – Dipoto can swap Haniger for Wil Myers and a top arm.
The Mitch Haniger market will be too much for Klentak to handle. Remember, Klentak is ready to walk away when Dipoto ask for one of you young arms. In Haniger, Klentak will absorb a contract and gives up 2 top arms. He will not do that!
Klentak will just sign Brantley if he missed on Harper.
LikeLike
guys, I hate to break this to you, but you are gonna have to get ok with losing a prospect or 2. It is good that it does not look like Howard is involved here, but in the next year or 2, the team is going to make a move that does involve a Howard or maybe even a Medina, and more fans should be ok with that. These guys still lack success above the low minors, and they are the types you have to give up sometimes. Sometimes they become great, other times they become Jared Cosart or Kyle Drabek. But we have to not overvalue these guys just bc we all love our prospects; we tend to think of everyone as their ceiling and not their realistic range of outcomes.
LikeLike
@degenerate – what you posted is correct in general terms, but it is irrelevant to the Segura trade situation.
it is not about the fear of losing prospects, but rather, the balance between what value the Phillies are getting vs cost and upside of the prospects given up. and also, there’s “leverage” that normally affects the trade value of certain players/prospects. it’s ok to lose good prospects for good value, but GMs should not be overpaying as much as possible.
to be particular, @HInkie posted earlier that the Phillies is not competing with any GM for Segura and Segura has no trade clause. These 2 factors lowers Dipoto’s trade “leverage”. If Segura doesn’t want to be traded to the Phillies, offering Sixto and Medina wouldn’t help.
LikeLike
While true DD not for Jean Segura….
LikeLike
Just catching up with the chatter. I’m excited for Segura AND getting rid of Santana (YES!! Hoskins at 1B going forward may be the best part of this deal!!). Worried about the prospect (likely pitcher) included. I don’t want it to be Howard, Romero, or Morales. They’ve been my faves for year or two. I also hope it’s not Sanchez, Medina, or DLS, but I’d rather lose one of the latter than the former. (Just my preference.)
LikeLike
LikeLike
Finally…student and teacher can get this trade completed.
LikeLike
If Segura can maintain a .300+ batting average, then his relatively low walk rate wouldn’t be such a concern. Bat him leadoff. Let Quinn bat in that “turn over the lineup” 9th spot to be the pseudo leadoff man. If Harper and his high BB rate (or Brantley who has a low K rate) signs, I bat him 2nd in front of Hoskins in the 3-hole. I would then consider Nick Williams as my cleanup man IF Machado signs elsewhere. And if MM isn’t our 3b, then I certainly don’t think the FO would go this far only to have Kingery or Franco there. I would be OK with Moustakas as a lefty power bat, if little else, until Bohm is ready for the Show. Franco should fetch a decent return from SD, particularly bullpen help. Then bat Alfaro 5th (with McCann as backup – man, can he D it up behind the plate!). Moose in 6 spot to give Alf some protection. Kingery at 2b would bat 7th, pitcher 8th, then the Roman candle again to turn it over.
LikeLike
Segura has a low K rate….14% for his career vs the 5%BB rate for his career in over 3800PAs.
That really is not a terrible ratio…in fact with the 9 delta according to Fangraphs that is above average
.Excellent K10.0% BB15.0%
Great K12.5% BB12.5%
Above Average K16.0% BB10.0%
Average K20.0% BB8.0%
Below Average 22.0% 7.0%
Poor 25.0% 5.5%
Awful 27.5% 4.0%
LikeLike
I’d put Quinn as leadoff. Seems like a nice fit with Segura batting behind him. I want the bath paths cleared for when Segura slaps one in the gap, watching Quinn “jog” home on a 1st to home is going to be nice. I’d expect to see that play about 25 times a year.
To me, I was on board with Mous last year, was my big FA I wanted then we got Santana. This offseason, I will pass. If Segura is the only INF addition, I’d roll the dice with Franco one more time. Not enough of a difference imo to warrant the financials, I’d rather spend the money on other upgrades, or keep it available for next offseason. I’m happy with the INF, currently, but I suspect it will improve further
1B – Hoskins
2B -Kingery
SS – Segura
3B – Franco
C – Alfaro
Herrera,Quinn, Harper, and Williams (4th) for the OF. I could live with that until Trout!
LikeLike
As per Rosenthal, looks like the Phils will have a reunion with Nicasio to complete the Jean Segura trade.
LikeLike
Per Ken Rosenthal:
Savings for #Mariners would be substantial: Segura owed $58M, Nicasio $9M and Santana $35M, including buyouts on club options. Not yet known if any cash is changing hands in deal. Indications are SEA will receive no additional prospects.
LikeLike
Hoping the last sentence is true…….
LikeLike
As well as LHRP James Pazos. No other prospects in the deal
LikeLike
And an inexpensive and effective LHRP James Pazos – still hoping there is no other prospect being sent to Seattle.
LikeLike
Yeah, just saw Rosenthal tweeted about this. This is a hell of a trade pulled by Klentak!
LikeLike
Nicasio was hurt last year and had knee surgery in August, it could be we got Pazos because we took Nicasio
LikeLike
In giving up Segura and Nicasio, DiPoto generated the following savings – Segura $14.85M/4 yrs + Nicasio $9.25/1yr = $68.65M while aborbing Santana’s $35M for a net savings of $33.65M. So $33.65M + JPC + A/A+ arm for Segura is just a fair deal not a robbery for Klentak.
LikeLike
Is there a minor league arm headed to Seattle? I still haven’t seen a player name or even a credible source that mentions the addition of such a player.
LikeLike
no mention of a pitching prospect to be sent to the Mariners anymore. Looks like Dipoto is already happy with the net savings he created from the trade.
LikeLike
Final Deal:
LikeLike
Nice job by the FO. I would have been fine including a low level prospect in the deal. They did not have to do that and got Pazos.
LikeLike
From a talent perspective and team need perspective, that’s one heck of a trade. A first division shortstop acquired along with a good lefty BP arm, and probably salary dump (Nicasio) in exchange for an expensive first baseman they can’t use and a promising but iffy young shortstop. You make that trade every day of the week if you have the Phillies’ type of financial flexibility. I can’t believe that not a single decent minor league arm went to Seattle. Wow – good work Klentak!!!
LikeLike
Absolutely!
LikeLike
What a solid deal by Klentak.
Clears 1B
Upgrade SS
Add to bullpen depth, specifically LH RP
Plus you keep your best prospects available to potentially acquire another useful piece down the line either this offseason or at the deadline. Well done. Seattle must really believe in JP’s ability to drive the ball consistently. I’m not sure that I do after watching him the last few years.
LikeLike
I’m going to wait to see how this pans out, but I’m really tempted to say that Seattle was fleeced by Klentak. It’s a REALLY well orchestrated trade and more proof that the Phillies didn’t need to make quick moves, they needed to make the right moves. This was pretty darned excellent in my view.
LikeLike
even the most negative Phillies fan would have a hard time finding any faults with this one.
LikeLike
Only those who think J.P. is going to be the next Lindor.
LikeLike
Again, it’s possible but highly unlikely. His ceiling is probably a 4+ WAR player – basically, that’s what Segura is now.
LikeLike
And to put an even finer point on it, their control over Segura matches his probable highly productive years (through age 32 or 33) – it’s a great trade in concept. Very, very well orchestrated.
LikeLike
Breaking it down, Santana and Nicasio are basically salary dumps. So, it boils down to Segura and Pazos for JPC.
Wha!!!
Unless Crawford turns into something we’ve only dreamt of, this is an outstanding, bordering on scandalous, trade.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t put Santana and Nicasio as a wash but it is still an excellent trade.
LikeLike
Seems both sides got what they want.
A win-win.
Also assume Phillies do not have to pick up any of Santana’s last two years.
LikeLike
Looks like no cash in the deal.
LikeLike
Thats a plus for sure…more for the Manny deal or Bryce Harrper/Boras extravaganza
LikeLike
Manny and Bryce, please let us know your jersey sizes for the announcements next week.
LikeLike
Sounds like Seattle was eager to trade Segura, was pleased Klentak did not bid against himself. Pazos a very nice get.
LikeLike
That concerns me a little bit. It also tells me there’s no market for Cesar Hernandez if this was the best they could get for Segura.
LikeLike
That said Klentak was with LAA when Segura was a prospect, I’m sure they did plenty of due diligence on the clubhouse fight between he and Gordon
LikeLike
Patience paying off guys.
The Phillies are not going to get every player and make every deal. But if they are smart about what they do do, then they’ll improve this team!
And this deal (IF in fact it is complete as Joel Sherman tweeted) is a great deal! Getting Segura, clearing 1B for Hoskins, and not giving up any of the pitching prospects is a great deal! I wish we had seen JP get a chance but otherwise on paper it seems we should be saying, Very well done MK!
LikeLike
I mean, realistically, what could you hope from Crawford? Is it possible he becomes a star? Sure it’s possible, but it’s most likely that, at best, he becomes as good as Segura and what he would provide most now is cost savings. But the Phillies don’t need cost savings now – they need performance and a reasonable contract for a reasonable period of time. They got that and they rid themselves of the albatross of Santana (he was blocking Hoskins) and they good a lefty reliever to boot. I am flummoxed that they didn’t have to give up any minor league arm or other high level talent. That’s amazing.
LikeLike
Exactly. I’m pinching myself I like this deal so much!
Thus my point, we need to be patient with the FO. Every player that gets signed or traded to anyone other than the Phillies should not frustrate us. There’s a lot of options out there and a lot of time left. We’ll make more deals and if they are half as good as this one, we’ll be pretty excited!
LikeLike
The Phillies now have a lot of depth in the Pen. If Nicasio bounces back and pitches like he has in the past, that would be a great trade
LikeLike
He had that right knee surgery just before Labor Day…..so he should be ready by spring training or at least before May I would think.
LikeLike
Segura’s payment…$59.4M@4 years with a $17M option with a $1M buyout-’23. total could come to $76M over the next 5 years…….approx $15M AAV , thats pretty good.,
LikeLike
I have to admit that I was confused. I thought, for certain, that we were losing an arm, and I was hoping it wasn’t Medina, and then hoping it wasn’t Howard. I have been critical of Klentak, but this is an excellent trade, and he deserves credit. DiPoto must think a lot of JP Crawford, and I wish the guy well. I rooted for him ever since he was drafted and become our top prospect, but I have seen his performance be underwhelming. I was not a Santana basher, but realize that Rhys needs to play 1B. I am anxious to see what happens next. Getting Pazos is simply a bonus, without him I loved the trade.
LikeLike
@matt13 – you can breath now….
LikeLike
Well said, Matt. Those are my exact thoughts and feelings.
LikeLike
It’s official!
LikeLike
Devils advocate here.
We had Santana at 1st and Hoskins in LF
We just traded Santana – 20+ HR/ year and now Hoskins moves to 1st.
Who plays LF? What if the Phillies dont trade for or sign anyone else?
Or do the Phillies trade for Goldy and still keep Hoskins in LF?
This move of Santana only makes sense if there is another move in the works to fill LF.
LikeLike
Dylan Cozens vs. RH and Altherr vs. LH.
LikeLike
I can see Cozens to start in LHV unless he explodes in the ST.
LikeLike
This is a joke right? Or were you the one who compared Cozens to Judge? Not trying to sound rude but if this happens something went terrible wrong with he rest of the off season.
LikeLike
Eric D….no. I comped Cozens to Judge back in 2016, since their metrics aligned at AA/AAA levels…..who would have thought Judge would turn out like he did after that disaster Aug/Sep 2016 he had in NY
LikeLike
Romus, def not talking about you . . someone mentioned wanting Cozen in the OF next year a few days ago, maybe a week or so . . . and brought up Judge as a comparison of what Cozen could be.
LikeLike
With Santana out, Hoskins move to 1B permanently and they are no longer a player for Goldy. I expect Klentak to explore possibilities to unload Doobie and Nick Williams potentially for an arm then go to FA to fill the OF. Quinn’s ability to play all OF positions provides flexibility – assuming that Klentak successfully traded Doobie and Williams – Klentak can sign Harper as LF, Brantley as CF and Quinn will be the RF. If Doobie and Williams are not traded – then the OF will be CF Doobie, Quinn LF/RF, Williams LF/RF and any of Harper or Brantley will move either Quinn or Williams to the bench and join Altherr.
LikeLike
KuKo….question Klentak resolve in moving doobie.
The words still resonate from his near end of season interview….some very skilled players, like Doobie, do have year long slumps .
Guessing and reading between the lines…I think he wants to hold him over another year.
LikeLike
I agree with you. But exploring Doobie trade doesn’t necessarily mean that Klentak doesn’t like him. Doobie’s skills and friendly contract is a very good trade asset that Klentak can extract value in any trade. CLE is looking for an OF, and if CLE is amenable to accept Doobie and another young arm for one of Bauer or Carrasco, then Klentak should be open to that opportunity.
LikeLike
Bauer would be nice….with Segura and maybe Manny…..the clubhouse will be alive.
LikeLike
KK is right, though, if the right trade comes along, Herrera could be traded. That probably goes for anyone but Nola.
LikeLike
Yes if the make no other moves this off-season the of season as a whole is a failure but that doesn’t diminish the value achieved in this trade.
LikeLike
Sounds like there’s potentially info info on Harper possibly not coming to Philly and Yanks and Manny are a fit.
LikeLike
Yes , if the Phillies fail to get BH or MM that would be disappointing. But it seems like the reason they would not get one or the other maybe out of MKs control. There are other options for OF obviously not as good as BH but an improvement in Herrera, Williams, Quinn, and Altherr. 3B options are a little bit thinner.
LikeLike
It is only early December. Give the FO time to work through the whole offseason. Judge them at spring training.
LikeLike
Brantley for left.
LikeLike
I’m 100% on board with this…Segura and Brantley ahead of Hoskins and Machado…
LikeLike
MK did a fantastic job on that trade – no prospects included, just 28 million in future $$ added to existing salaries – that’s the point in having the $$, isn’t it ?
Heard late today via Sirius radio – “sources state emphatically that Phillies will top any and all offers to Harper.” If he does not sign with Phillies say experts – it will be because he chooses to live on west coast or play for his boyhood dream team, Yankees. But they will have to top the Phillies offer said the experts.
Lastly – if all else fails, Brantley as an outfielder with Segura means alot more batted balls, base runners, and a much improved offense.
LikeLike
Brantley is not a center fielder.
LikeLike
Agree…its been 7/8 years since he played any meaningful CF….i.e over 125 games…he is primarily a LFer now.
LikeLike
Nicasio had a 6.00 ERA, but his FIP was 2.99 and xfip was 3.18 which suggests a lot of bad luck impscting his injury shortened season.
LikeLike
Somebody mentioned above that he was injured and played hurt. Had knee surgery after the season ended.
LikeLike
Good deal for the Phillies if for no other reason than then clear Santana from the roster and move forward with getting Hoskins out of LF. I know that Jim is not a fan of Hoskins glove at 1b either but I’d rather he play below average defense at first base vs. worst position player in baseball defense in LF.
It would appear that Santana did actually have some value and was not DFA’d as some had suggested. As for Crawford, I’m sad to see him go as a long-time supporter but I would say that his ceiling is probably Segura with a little better OBP and a little less speed so they get an established option for higher $$$ vs. the potential for having a cheap version of the same type of player.
Overall a good start to the off-season.
LikeLike
The deal also, in some small part, might be a vote of confidence in Luis Garcia
LikeLike
We can still sign Brantley if no Harper, or sign Pollack, Quinn can play CF, Doobie left, if he stays, or Nick Williams if he doesn’t. I believe there is another player coming, and I am still with Hinkie that Harper or Machado comes here. I still hear they want Britton or Miller, and I am not convinced there is not another SP coming.l
LikeLike
LikeLike
Good review of the deal
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-phillies-were-jean-seguras-entire-market/
LikeLike
Many analysts have expressed surprise Dipoto didn’t squeeze another prospect out of the Phillies.
Could it be that a GM who is not always flashy, not always rushing and jumping, not necessarily following a playbook everyone expects him to, and maybe has even created a reputation that he’s willing to walk away, has better leverage to get a deal done on his terms?!
Maybe? Just sayin’. …Let’s continue to give the FO some props and patience. (This deal certainly earned it, IMO.)
LikeLike
Again, a good thing I’m not the GM, I would have overpaid.
Here is where I think I made my mistakes
Undervaluing Santana
And
Not realizing Segura’s trade mark was very limited
Reading the Fangraph link, apparently, the Phillies were just about the only contending team without a SS. This ioscted Dipoto leverage, and basically dropped he asking price. Good for Klentak and our FO, i definitely missed that.
I think in a more “normal” trade scenario, where you have multiple bidders, and young prospect arm would have been gone in that deal.
I’m still shocked but at least it makes a little bit more sense now. The right circumstances feel the Phillies way, klentak pounced, good move by the FO. I’m sure Dipoto has a few choice words for klentak when making this deal final 🙂
LikeLike
Why would he have choice words for Klentak, who was just doing his job ? Nobody put a gun to Dipoto’s head and he did the deal voluntarily and there was no real rush. It’s amazing they didn’t have to surrender even a guy like Edubray Ramos or Hector Neris (who I think could have a dominating year in 2019). I love when we have the GM that pulls the right strings and gets the better side of a deal – it makes me feel good about the direction of the team.
LikeLike
Tac3…..Segura had to move on somehow….fighting in the locker room with Zunino and Gordon probably sealed his fate. And Zunino is gone also. Gordon solely remains.
As for the trade….Dipoto will probably move Santana in July and recoup a prospect , maybe two.
The only thing I think Dipoto did not take advantage of , was to get the Phillies to pay 2/3s (approx $12M) of Santana’s salary in 2019…up thru July.
LikeLike
Agree, Santana can likely be flipped for something at the deadline with 1.25 years left on deal, that probably makes the deal better for Seattle fans to swallow, they’ll just need to wait for part II of the trade, then wait some more.
Still amazed at Segura’s limited market … for a guy that hits .300 with 40 2B and can swat 20hrs … that is pretty impressive. 2016 isn’t that long ago, sounded like he was an MVP candidate if I read correctly, well he’s the property of the Phillies now
Btw – if Crawford does end of busting (not hoping for) … how do you think that tattoo on his arm will play out?
LikeLike
I assume, the tat will be removed at some point, if that turns out to be the case.
But I am confident JPC will be a solid MLB player.
LikeLike
My comment didn’t translate through posting very well. More of a friendly grumbling.
Great move, could workout for both teams, even if Crawford develops and Santana ha a better offensive year being back in the AL.
LikeLike
Klentak went from the outhouse to the penthouse in one full swoop. Talk about jumping back onto the bandwagon!
I agree with most posters on this great site. Santana had to go to not so much get Hoskins back on 1B but out of LF.
Santana’s numbers for HR-RBI 24-96 BB-K 110- 93 AVG-OB-OBS 229-363-805
Hoskins’ numbers 34-96 124-196 249-364-889
The numbers are not that far apart. Of course, the upside is Hoskins is 6 years younger.
My point here is that Santana is a better 1Bman and is athletic enough to play some 3B.
So before we judge his stay in Philly too harshly, remember, he did a pretty good job here.
LikeLike
It’s interesting to see the Phillies initially were going to offer Sixto Sanchez for Edwin Diaz/Jean Segura but (rightfully) got cold feet in an article by Ken Rosenthal today.
Not sure that would’ve bad any kind of sense. I would think Sixto would offer similar impact to Diaz if he was moved to the pen this year, similar to Seranthony. But it does show they aren’t afraid to deal him (nor should they be).
LikeLike
V1 above—- sites a good article by Fangraphs that goes into the number of teams that could have used Segura. Thanks to V1 for pointing it out.
LikeLike
John K, sorry for the late post regarding your comments yesterday. I understand completely your position relative to LTC. They very rarely work out. Here is the difference this year, IMO. Middleton wants and feels the team needs a Superstar, gate attraction, to fill the stands again. That, couple with the ages of Machado and Harper, makes him say things like “maybe spend some stupid $.” Segura was a terrific trade, Brantley wold be a really nice addition. Adding a good SP makes the team better, and a lefty RP would be a big help. But, these 2 guys are viewed as more than that, and that is why I think we will be in it, regardless of the risks.
LikeLike
Matt13, agree that the business side will likely force an all-out pursuit for at least one of the two (MM/BH). Your points are valid and important in the big picture for the phillies as a money-making organization. …If for any reasons both of the players choose elsewhere though, I’ll be more okay with it than others will be. And I’ll be ecstatic if we get Pollock. I really think he’s underrated. …But I’ll also celebrate with everyone if we get one of the big two – I’m not a fool and the Phillies will surely be much improved.
LikeLike
To Charlie above………I don’t think most are judging Santana’s time in Philly harshly. I think most think it was a head scratching move at the time. I understand Santana is probably a better at 1st base than Rhys, but as many stated, Rhys needs to be at 1st and not in LF. So, I will certainly take Rhys at 1st and whoever is added via FA(Harper, Brantley, Pollock) vs how it was last year.
LikeLike
I hope this deal works out but Jean Segura sure has bounced around to multiple teams recently. On paper this looks like a very good deal but what if Segura has clubhouse issues here?
LikeLike
philabaltfan…remember what Klentak said….not every great player is a ‘prince’
Then throw Manny into the mix, and we will not know what comes out of it..
LikeLike