553 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 15, 2018”

1. This team is not ready for a deep run into the playoffs. The Miami series exposed the weaknesses and Jim’s stats amplify that. Franco, Herrera and Santana are so erratic that, if the team gets to the playoffs, who knows what they will do. Machado, as good as he is, is not a magic bullet. No one player can be. Klentak needs to be creative and think what he could do with a package that would include Franco, Herrera and Santana. Hoskins, Kingery, Williams and Alfaro need to be surrounded by consistent professional hitters. Right now, they are not.

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   1. Some of the Phillies' prospects being evaluated by the Orioles: Franklyn Kilome, 23 years old, pitcher; Jhailyn Ortiz, 19, outfielder; Arquimedes Gamboa, 20 years old, middle infielder; Adonis Medina, 21, pitcher. It'll be interesting to see if Maikel Franco is part of any offer.

      — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 14, 2018

      To put this proposed Medina/Kilome/Gamboa/Ortiz (all four are Phillies top 10 prospects, Medina a top 100) offer for 2 months of Manny Machado into perspective, consider the 2015 deal between the Phillies and Rangers.
      The Phillies traded four and a half years of Cole Hamels and three and a half years of Jake Diekman and got back only slightly more than what they would be giving up for two months of MM.
      The Rangers refused to part with either of their top two prospects (Joey Gallo or Nomar Mazara). Instead, they sent three other top ten prospects (Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, and Jake Thompson) and two pitchers (Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff) ranked in the 15 to 30 range. Alfaro was a top 50 prospect and Williams was a top 100 prospect. In addition, the Phillies ate Matt Harrison’s 28 million dollar contract. Plus, the Phillies paid almost 10 million dollars of Hamels’ contract for the Rangers.
      All that considered, I would still definitely do this deal. This team is officially a year ahead of schedule, and the FO owes it to the current players to upgrade their roster. However, if the Phillies do give up Medina, Kilome, Gamboa, and Ortiz, I would insist on the Orioles including Zach Britton, and some J2 dollars.

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      1. I watched Adonis Medina in the Futures Game yesterday. Despite giving up a moon shot HR to Mets 1B prospect Peter Alonso, he was impressive. Medina threw 94-96. More importantly, he had tremendous movement on both his CU and SL. He does need to work on commanding the SL. The CH looks MLB ready right now.

         Filthy cold Medina!
         Look at this pitch from #Phillies No. 2 prospect Adonis Medina in today's #FuturesGame. https://t.co/MRwrPasLmV pic.twitter.com/MayBJPN3Pn

         — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 16, 2018

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         1. A couple of tweets to share:

            Source indicated last Sunday his sense was that the Orioles were at the 35-yard-line and driving in the Machado trade conversations. Same source this Sunday: "10-yard-line." PHI, Brewers, Dodgers waiting for the goal line call. As mentioned yesterday, Orioles have narrowed focus.

            — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 15, 2018

            Here is my favorite !

            Owner John Middleton has emerged as a driving force in Philly. He's very aggressive and has no reservations about spending money. This is hard to fathom, but I've talked to people who think he might try to sign both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado as free agents this winter. https://t.co/kT9jzpul9M

            — Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 15, 2018

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            1. BTW … the best way to structure a Bryce Harper offer (after this team first signs MM in free agency) is to offer him outrageous money for two years. Give him an opt out after the second year (2020), and offer him less money (under market value in years 3 through 10). It would look something like this:

               year 1 … 40 million
               year 2 … 40 million
               opt out option
               year 3 … 18 million
               year 4 … 18 million
               year 5 … 18 million
               year 6 … 18 million
               opt out option
               year 7 … 15 million
               year 8 … 15 million
               year 9 … 15 million
               year 10 .. 15 million

               This way he plays for the Phillies for the 2019 and 2020 seasons. He would then almost certainly opt out after the 2020 season. That’s important because at that same time Mike Trout could reach free agency (assuming he decides he won’t re-sign with the Angels because they still haven’t made it to the playoffs).

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               1. Don’t want Harper. I think the rest of the league pitches/shifts and he can’t adjust. His career average season is basically the same as Jayson Werth with the Phillies. I don’t think Harper ever reaches that MVP season stratosphere again.

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               2. I think Harper will take a 1-year pillow contract with the Nationals in hopes of lifting his stock to enter the 2019 off-season off of what he hopes will be a better year for him. He would enter the 2019 off-season as the unquestioned #1 available talent, a year after Machado and a year before Trout. The Nats can offer a generous one year deal as they seek to maintain their window for success, allow for the development of Robles and Soto and figure out how badly they might miss Harper. I don’t think Harper will be there for the Phils nor do I think the Phils would find a strong reason to aggressively pursue him. Just as Harper might prefer the bright lights of New York or L.A., the Phils figure to be more active in pursuing Machado and Trout.

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               3. Agreed – Harper will sign a pillow contract unless someone gives him the type of deal he could expect after a typical season (which seems unlikely).

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         2. My takeaway from Medina yesterday was that his stuff looked nasty, but his command (especially his slider) is not close to mlb ready. The homer he gave up was middle middle. Horrible location. And he couldn’t make his slider even close enough to get swings. Although huge movement. But I was impressed with the entire package. FB has great velo and a tail.

            https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1018624420317945857?s=21

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      2. I would do that deal too.

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      3. @hinkie – agree, with that package Britton and some J2 money should be included too. Although I will push hard not to include Medina but instead offer delos Santos plus another prospect like McKenzie Mills.

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         1. agree with that, DLS might be a 4 or 5 whereas medina could be a 1 or 2. much higher ceiling,although farther away but well worth the risk.

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            1. Enyel has logged >100 innings than Medina, but Medina is not far off from delos Santos proximity wise. Medina will be in the 40-man before the end of the year and both still need to work on commanding their breaking balls. Medina can pitch in the majors now and is possibly better than most of the #5 starters in the majors. The Phillies (or any team) will be wise to keep Medina in the minors to complete his development of at least a #3/#4 with #2 ceiling.

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   2. Yes, but even if they are not ready for a deep run, just getting some postseason reps would be huge for everyone involved. Look at the 2008 team; I would argue that they probably don’t win the WS if they didn’t get a taste of postseason action in 2007; even if they were clearly not quite ready to make a serious run.

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   3. Rob, I agree. A big reason for the Phillies current 53-42 record is their league best 20-8 record in 1-run games. This probably isn’t sustainable through a 162 game season, given the other weakness that the team has. Machado and Britton would address some of those weaknesses but IMO would not be enough to make a deep playoff run.

      Thiis why I would not give up a package of Medina, Kilome, Gamboa, and Ortiz for the two rentals from Baltimore. I would agree to some package of lesser prospects (or not near as many top prospects), and also consider at least one of Franco, Altheer, and Williams. Now if Machado agrees to a contract extension as part of the trade, that changes everything, and I would give up the four aforementioned prospects, plus Franco and Altheer.

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   4. Come on man why would we trade Herrera? Or Santana? One good week for either of them and they are back to an .800 ops and above avg defense.

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2. Do not understand the Harper PLUS Machado to the Phllies talk.
   If that happens…forget about Trout ever coming to Philly.
   Cannot see all three here, with the org comfortably fitting the entire roster under the lux tax threshold. In three years alone from now, Nola/Kingery/Hoskins could command $45/50M combined

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   1. ….$45/50M combined AAV.

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   2. Trout’s not coming to Philly. The LA Angels spend money like a big market team and will pay whatever it takes to keep him.

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      1. At some point, great players like to play to win. Mike Trout knows that big $$ follows him wherever he goes so he is not beholden to any team. The allure of the LA lifestyle is what keeps great players in LA, Mike Trout is not cut from the same cloth. Lower tax, lower cost of living, closer to famlly and his comfort zone, playing for the city who will adore more than the fairweather LA fans winning for the team the he cheered when he was young, let’s see how Arte Moreno will financially quantify that.

         Between LAA and PHI, the team who is closer to winning will get Mike Trout (I assume that $$ are the same).

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         1. I agree with you, Trout will get paid, wherever he wants to play. Yes, I think we have a legit chance to bring him back to the east coast. Throw in Eagles box seats

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            1. I usually don’t make much of a player’s hometown ties, but I think Trout is a different story. I think he never wants to stray far from Millville if he doesn’t need to and, guess what? He doesn’t need to. Also, I don’t think this will be about money – sure he’ll get ridiculous dollars, but this signing won’t be about getting the last few millions of dollars. He has as good or better chance of ending up here as anywhere else if he doesn’t sign an extension before he becomes a FA.

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         2. KK makes a great point here about taxes. Phillies could offer Trout less money and it would still be more than what California takes out of his paycheck net net.

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            1. and lower cost of living. these savings can afford Mr. and Mrs. Trout to give more and run their own foundation within South Jersey and Philly area and makes Mike Trout a living legend in Millville.

               Hinkie proposed a plan to sign Trout’s best pal in Garret Richards and the duo can join Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz (who will be playing in Philly for a while) hunt for the legendary Jersey Devil in the woods of south jersey and hang out in the shore with Joel Embiid serving some Shirley Temple’s.

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               1. Guys, listen to yourselves. He is getting paid $35 million a year now and will only get more. He has everything he will ever need 10 times over and by all accounts he is a simple guy. The last thing this signing will be about is the lower cost of living in NJ versus LA.

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               2. @catch – i don’t know why you want us to listen to ourselves when you just basically echoing what some of us are saying about Mike Trout…

                  I’m not sure if you read this, but I posted this since yesterday…..

                  “The allure of the LA lifestyle is what keeps great players in LA, Mike Trout is not cut from the same cloth. Lower tax, lower cost of living, closer to famlly and his comfort zone, playing for the city who will adore more than the fairweather LA fans winning for the team the he cheered when he was young”

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               3. Fair enough.

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      2. Mike H … It doesn’t matter how much money Arte Moreno offers if Mike Trout isn’t interested in re-signing. Trout knows he can get the same money from a handful of (maybe most) other teams. If the Angels don’t make the playoffs over the next three seasons (looks like 2018 is already a no go), I would say the odds are pretty good Mike hits the FA market after 2020. When he hits the open market, he’ll have Millville (where he still lives in the winter) and the Phillies on his mind.

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         1. @hinkie – good point of the winter residence. Playing for Philly, Trout can live in Millville area for the rest of the year (and possibly his lifetime). Trout also done a full Sixers (Simmons) jersey when LAA had that NBA thing. Phillies in Spring and Summer, then Eagles/Sixers in the Fall/Winter. Note also that both Eagles and Sixers can be very good for a while and have good ambassadors who can help recruit Mike Trout.

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      3. That said if the Angels have presented an extension to Mike and he has not countered or said he wants to stay or said he intends to hit free agency this time around the Angels would be wise not to fall into the same trap as the Orioles have with MM.

         As hard a pill as that is for them to swallow it is the wise move. If you can’t make the playoffs with the best player in baseball then clearly your organization has bigger problems.

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         1. DMAR…we think a like…I mentioned that last week…Moreno will not let himself fall into the same trap the Angelos’ did in Baltimore with Machado.
            And that will be next July or perhaps Dec 2019.

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   3. Romus … the plan would be to sign Harper to a short term deal. If the contract is structured they way I posted above, it would allow/encourage Harper to walk after the 2020 season. That’s when Mike Trout could hit free agency, and replace Harper in the Phillies lineup.

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3. Getting real tired of a $25 million player hitting at the Mendoza line, forgetting how many outs there are…. The walks don’t make up for the BA..

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   1. Don’t forget his existence on this team causing our top young hitter to play (brutally) out of position, something that must affect his mental approach at the plate. I thought this front office/manager were “analytically inclined”?

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   2. Santana isn’t making $25 mil.

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      1. 15 million salary + 10 million signing bonus

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4. I have learned to take the praise of scouts in regards to prospects with a grain of salt, especially with young starting pitchers. They may be able to look outrageous for an inning but then their stuff goes away. As mentioned many times, wait to get excited with a pitcher when he gets to AA. Its tougher to gauge a Phils’ hitting prospect that way since Reading is a bandbox. Remember people, Amaro’s main mistake was not trading away all our studs, JA Happ has had the best career out of all the prospects dealt, it was his total and complete lack of re-loading the farm system through horrible draft picks and such a small investment in LA. Rushing to sing Papelbon rather than waiting an extra week also cost him a 1st round pick.

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   1. Eagle you make a lot of great points but though I hate to be put in the role on an Amaro apologist, it is unfair to blame him for the loss of the first round pick IMO. Boston absolutely did not make a qualifying offer to Papelbon and- as people in Philly might well agree after he’d been here awhile, despite his stats I am sure was not going to get one. Had the Phillies been the type of team who would do this, they likely could have made a strong case to keep their first round pick. Who knows why they didn’t maybe because with their excellent record it was so close to a 2nd round pick maybe the way they were. However, off topic but what I do blame Amaro for was the scummy way they treated Madson in his simultaneous renegotiation!

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      1. Iheart, what happened with Madson after signing Papelbon? He had to sit a couple years and heal his arm.

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         1. You are absolutely right, pbf – the Madson non-signing didn’t work out badly for the Phils over the term of the deal, but regardless in my opinion it was a scummy way to treat a player, who had been a very valuable member of the team..

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5. I still have a long view on Scottie NOPOP. He will be an above average player. 270 10 60 with 15 steals. He isn’t ready now.

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   1. I agree with this; the people who are jumping off the Kingery wagon now are quite frankly, not intelligent. Utley and Pedroia struggled during their first taste of MLB action. I am fine with him learning on the job. Any success the team has this year is found money.

      In fact, a lot of Phillies fans have been disappointing me on social media. Still so much hate for Kapler, despite the fact that he is a MOY candidate. I don’t know if some fans can’t get over his first week, or if they just don’t like that he is different and thinks outside the box.

      When you do things different like he has, nobody says a word when his tactics work but when they don’t, the complainers come out in full force.

      Im as big of a Kapler stan as there is; think the phils got an awesome young forward thinking manager.

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      1. since the skipper has the power to decide who plays in the field, his main role is to maximize the abilities of his players and ensure that everyone buys into what he is doing — skipper looks good when the players play well and vice versa. a forward looking is a misnomer, it applies more on the Klentak than Kapler. Klentak plays the long game while Kapler just need to deal with what he have. people love to say “out of the box” but nobody knows what i means. I interviewed 100+ candidates and said the “out of the box” thing but they can’t explain it how. Honestly, there’s nothing much Kapler can do other than to keep his players fully motivated to play and learn how to play chess with the other skipper every game.

         On Kingery, it’s all about having patience. With the years of losing and the success that the other Philly teams are having, the patience of the Phillies fans are running thin. It is understandable that short sighted fans are frustrated about Kingery because like Kapler, the fans has to deal on a game to game basis. The fact that the Phillies signed Kingery on a LT contract and forced him in the 25-man roster earlier than expected. it means that the FO saw something in him. I trust the FO than most of the fans. The window for contention opens earlier, so the Phillies will ride with Cesar but Kingery will get his time soon.

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         1. I agree with that. I just remember when, in sports, it was ok for a guy to not dominate as a rookie. NFL qbs were expected to hold the clipboard for a year or two no matter how high they were drafted. MLB players took a bit of time to get used to MLB pitching. Mike Schmidt was brutal his first year. But in today’s world, its all about immediate success. If a qb isn’t an all pro by year 2, hes a bust. if a MLB player struggles hes a bust. Lets just see how it plays out; I think Kingery figures it out and makes a few all star teams. If hes hitting .230 this time next season, then maybe its time to start to panic.

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            1. most of the baseball coach that i talked to and played for are saying that baseball is a very routine sport. although it’s a team game, it is a game between a pitcher vs hitter so in a way, it’s one-on-one, mano-y-mano every at bat. if you look at boxers, they are very routine athlete’s too. the reason for this is to keep their focus on the things they have to do. With Kingery playing all over the field mess with his routine. Although Kingery is still playing out of position at SS, he is starting to hit better when he gets regular playing time at the same position.

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            2. Agree with the Kingery comments … and … would add JP Crawford as well.

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               1. I like JP Crawford and agree patience is needed, however I still hope he’s in Baltimore tomorrow

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         2. I’m a huge Kingery fan, but just because some people don’t believe in him doesn’t mean they are stupid. It’s not entirely clear how good he will become and I love the guy.

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      2. Does anyone know how difficult it is to learn a new position in the ML!!! Shortstop at that!!! Give the kid a break, his makeup alone has to be off th charts as he is holding his own

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6. The fact that Kingery received the “strike early” deal that he did tells me all I need to know about what the brass thinks about him. Hoskins hasn’t. Even Nola hasn’t. Of course, their agents could have advised them against it. But once Kingery settles into his eventual inheritance of 2b – the sooner the better as far as I’m concerned – I firmly believe he will be as described in the comments above. He’s a smart kid. Show me two players with comparable talent and give me the one with the acumen.

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   1. Fyi – Kingery is hitting over 280 the last 30 games. Not too bad

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7. Kingery has not disappointed me at all. I expected him to be in LHV until now.He has shown improvement at the plate while learning a new position, a position that requires a whole different approach than 2B. I don’t get why people are down on him. Rhys, who I love, has been a bigger letdown to me so far. His July has been terrible and I wish he skipped the HR Derby and regrouped for the Playoff race.

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8. Doing the Top 50, more so Top 30 prospect ranking is getting harder now even with the graduation of Kingery, JPC, Alfaro, Seranthony, Valentin and Arano and the fall out of some highly regarded prospects (Stobbe, Randolph, Cozens, Gowdy).

   The current Rule 4 draft produced 3 Top 30 worthy prospects in Bohm, Pipkin and Eastman as the trio are ranked in the Top 100 draft prospects. Matt Vierling, Logan Simmons, Logan O’Hoppe and Keylan Killgore are showing potential to be legit Top 50 prospects.

   In the IFA, Starlyn Castillo will definitely rank high in the strength of his FB, and prospects like Nic Torres, Manuel Silva, Abrahan Gutierrez and Carlos dela Cruz are showing that they deserve to be considered in the Top 50. Luis Garcia, last year’s Top IFA, looks good as advertised and will be breaking the Top 20.

   Consider also the surprising 2018 season of Will Stewart, Parkinson, Rosso, Kyle Dohy, Zach Warren, Rodolfo Duran, Jake Holmes, Ben Pelletier, DJ Stewart, Austin Listi, Ben Brown, Andrew Brown and most of these prospects deserve the Top 50 too.

   Resurgence from old time prospects like Mitch Walding, Zach Green, Jan Hernandez, Deivi Grullon, Jose Pujols and Malquin Canelo may not be Top 50 worthy anymore, but it is still good to point out.

   Looking at the above, about 15-20 prospects have legit case of breaking the 50 ranking for the 1st time.

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   1. I don’t think there is any question that Vierling is top 50 right now

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   2. and i also need to mention Nick Maton and Jake Scheiner. Austin Bossart is hitting, although he’s a back up catch at best so not a high ceiling.

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   3. KuKo … since you brought up a Top 50, I’ll post my updated list (worked on it last week):

      1. Sixto Sanchez
      2. Adonis Medina
      3. Alec Bohm
      4. Jhailyn Ortiz
      5. Roman Quinn
      6. Adam Haseley
      7. JoJo Romero
      8. Francisco Morales
      9. Enyel De Los Santos
      10. Spencer Howard
      11. Starlyn Castillo
      12. Franklyn Kilome
      13. Ranger Saurez
      14. Nick Maton
      15. Kevin Gowdy
      16. Arquimedes Gamboa
      17. Mickey Moniak
      18. Luis Garcia
      19. Logan Simmons
      20. Edgar Cabral
      21. Cole Irvin
      22. Dominic Pipkin
      23. Jonathan Guzman
      24. Simon Muzziotti
      25. Matt Vierling
      26. Connor Seabold
      27. Austin Listi
      28. Kyle Young
      29. Daniel Brito
      30. Darick Hall
      31. Will Stewart
      32. Colton Eastman
      33. Bailey Falter
      34. Drew Anderson
      35. Cornelius Randolph
      36. Jake Holmes
      37. Rafael Marchan
      38. Jhordany Mezquita
      39. Carlos De La Cruz
      40. Brayan Gonzales
      41. Tom Eshelman
      42. DJ Stewart
      43. Nicolas Torres
      44. Rodolpho Duran
      45. Jake Scheiner
      46. Manuel Silva
      47. Jakob Hernandez
      48. Jose Pujols
      49. Abrahan Gutierez
      50. Ben Pelletier

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      1. @Hinkie – you are still high on Quinn and Maton is rising up your rankings! I have to move Gowdy out of the Top 30 due to inactivity. I ranked Quinn, Maton and Gowdy as #14, #27 and #32, respectively.

         We have the same 43 prospects and differ with the following: #35 Edgar Garcia, #38 Lindow, #44 Hammer, #45 Fanti, #48 O’Hoppe (yes, over Marchan and Duran), #49 Cozens and #50 Taveras. You have Cabral, Marchan, dela Cruz, DJ Stewart, Duran, Jake the Cake and Jose Pujols. Hope that the Pujols turn around is for real. I think Pujols will be FA by next year, if not by the end of this season.

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         1. KuKo … post your top 50 when you get the time.

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            1. @Hinkie – as you wish….

               1. Sanchez
               2. Medina
               3. Bohm
               4. Haseley
               5. Ortiz
               6. Jojo Romero
               7. Gamboa
               8. delos Santos
               9. Howard
               10. Morales
               11. Kilome
               12. Moniak
               13. Suarez
               14. Quinn
               15. Pipkin
               16. Irvin
               17. Guzman
               18. Gonzalez
               19. Luis Garcia
               20. Castillo
               21. Brito
               22. Young
               23. Eastman
               24. Muzziotti
               25. Seabold
               26. Simmons
               27. Maton
               28. Hall
               29. Vierling
               30. Eshelman
               31. Anderson
               32. Gowdy
               33. Falter
               34. Randolph
               35. Ed Garcia
               36. Silva
               37. Mezquita
               38. Lindow
               39. Stewart
               40. Holmes
               41. Torres
               42. Scheiner
               43. Listi
               44. Hammer
               45. Fanti
               46. Gutierrez
               47. Pelletier
               48. O’Hoppe
               49. Cozens
               50. Taveras

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               1. Noticed i group the LHP prospects (Silva, Mezquita, Lindow and Stewart) together. Fanti is further behind unless I can see an uptick in his stuff. Fanti is looking like Leibrandt to me. Silva will be the fast rise amongst this group.

                  I also group the INF prospects (Guzman, Gonzalez, Luis Garcia, Brito) together. I like Luis Garcia the most in this group but it is still SSS.

                  I’m worried about Listi’s future position. I see him more as a DH. This might be Cozen’s last year in my Top 50. I just cannot ignore his power potential and good arm. Same thing with Taveras. His CU is one of the best, if not the best, in the farm.

                  I currently have Gutierrez above O’Hoppe as the best catching prospect mainly because of the number of at bats. If O’Hoppe can keep up his hit tool, he will shoot up in my rankings.

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               2. Moniak at 12 makes no sense. You guys are drinking the kool aid too much.

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               3. @v1 – yeah, at least it is the better kool aid that the one who previously said that Moniak has a 70-grade hit tool. thus, untoucheable even for Mike Trout then make a 190 turn around tremendous effort to trash Moniak 8 months after.

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               4. i meant to say 180 not 190

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               5. I mistook your Stewart at #39 for DJ.

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               6. KuKo……how in this world, do you have Dylan Cozens at 49!
                  Granted he probably is not a premier prospect, but he will be playing in the majors on a team somewhere and hitting HRs…soon enough
                  It is a good thing you were not ranking Yankee prospects in October 2016….I would like to see where you would have had Judge after his horrific Aug/Sept 2016.

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               7. @romus – lol! I have to admit that I’m not a Cozens fan, but his lack of projection left and with that big red flag pulled him down in my ranking. I value physical projections a lot in my ranking.

                  Know what, Hinkie doesn’t even have Cozens in his Top 50!!

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               8. That was based on concencuss scouting reports before his play proved differently. I was wrong. Very wrong. But now you know that he has no where close to that grade of a hit tool. So why rate him high now? Makes no sense to me.

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               9. @v1 – the Phils have some prospects whose ranking can swing by 10-20 spots depending on the attributes considered and personal bias of who is making the ranking —- Moniak, Cozens, Quinn, Gowdy, Randolph, Pujols, Fanti, Hall are examples. Even MLB has Jose Gomez in their Top 30 for almost a year now and I’ve never seen any ranking where Gomez sniff their Top 30. I will not even surprised if someone ranked Will Stewart and Austin Listi in their Top 20 because of recent performances.

                  Most of the long time readers in the site knows how you feel about Moniak as supported by a long write up to support your claim. It’s easy to poke on somebody else’s ranking due to difference in preference and personal bias, but unless you share your own, it’s hard to fairly discuss the rankings with you.

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      2. I can’t imagine how you could have Moniak that high. His performance is completely awful. Scouting reports are worse. He is no where close to top 25. Rodolfo Duran (your #44) is a far better prospect than Moniak.

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      3. Hinkie – Where does that 5′ 5″ guy rate? Cumana is it? Any opinion of him? I’m curious about him. Playing left field for A ball team. Forgot who.

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         1. Cumana is a non-prospect who has had a very good first 90 AB’s to start the season.

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9. Manny expects to be dealt during the All Star break. I go back and forth between wanting him now, and not wanting to give up too much. I certainly want him eventually, and even when we play terribly, like yesterday, I still see a team that can make the Playoffs, and with MM, make a run.

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   1. Jim Bowden of the Athletic says it’ll be done before Friday. Jayson Stark said there could be a handshake deal already and will become official after the all star game.

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      1. Manny Machado will represent the #Orioles in the All Star Game….but he is expected to be traded before the regular season resumes later in the week according to sources involved in the trade discussions.

         — Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) July 16, 2018

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         1. I was just thinking this. BAL is waiting to pull the trigger as to not take away from the HR derby, or ASG. Waiting until the rest day after the ASG is a smart move by mlb/teams … just annoying for phi/la/mil/and bal fans.

            I am for the deal. for the reasons I stated in the last open discussion comments … but I waver. I’m 75% confident he will sign in Phi, I just hope the FO does enough research to know if he is open to signing in phi vs only for LA or NY because of marketing deals etc. that’s my only concern, but I think Middleton OKs whatever salary he needs to. Middleton is the new Ed Snider… before the cap

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10. What’s the deal with Bohm I haven’t seen his name in the reports in a while. I know he got hit by a pitch but was it serious?

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    1. Phillies first-round pick Alec Bohm was placed on the disabled list today retroactive to Thursday … Bohm has been sent to Clearwater to rehab after being hit by a pitch on the left knee Monday … He was in a walking boot the last two days

       — Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) July 14, 2018

       Supposedly, the pitch hit Bohm’s knee in a spot that effected a nerve that runs down to his foot. He may be experiencing some numbness in his foot.

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       1. Thanks Hinkie you are a wealth of information. I thought I followed Mitch on twitter but I never saw this come through so maybe I should check again because Mitch too is a wealth of Info all things Crosscutters

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11. MLB.com, according Jon Mayo will come out with their updated mid-season team’s top 30 rankings first week in August after the trade deadline.
    Hopefully it is a little more than cut, paste and plug from one org to another org

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12. Another trade rumor….Mets and Phillies rumored in a deal with Familia:
    https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/report-phillies-giants-interested-in-jeurys-familia-521855.html

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    1. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

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       1. Make the deal only. if the Phillies give up precious little.

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       2. Kind of has disaster written all over it. Unless he is flawless fans will be looking to get on him at any sign of imperfection. I get it, they need bp help and hes a decent arm, but this does not make logical sense.

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       3. Agree.
          Plus he is a rental , so if Klentak does do such a trade…should be little.

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       4. Agree completely. Not interested in that baggage.

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    2. Familia is possibly one of the Plan B’s. NYM being in the same division, will try to squeeze every once from Klentak before they deal Familia to the Phils. Once Klentak acquired Britton, that’s probably the only RP arm they will acquire unless some GMs will do some payroll cleanup like what PIT did with Nicasio last year and Klentak picks them up in the recycle bin.

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13. Corey Seidman has this very telling stat on Alf:
    “Alfaro has swung at a higher percentage of pitches this season than any player in the majors — 61.5 percent. The only other player who’s swung at more than 59 percent of the pitches he’s seen is Javier Baez.”
    ……..and that doesn’t totally reflect his ‘swing and miss in the zone’ rates.

    And then this nugget on Santana, “No player in the National League has had more pitches in the strike zone called balls than Santana (55)………”.
    …that is an indictment on umpiring accuracy or lack of.

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    1. Santana gets the benefit of his reputation for knowing the strike zone.

       Reminds me of a story I read years ago (not sure it was actually true) told about Ted Williams. A young pitcher threw a pitch he though was a strike only to have the umpire call it a ball. The next pitch he though was even better but again the umpire said “ball”. After the pitch, the pitcher walked towards the plate and yelled at the umpire, “Hey, those pitches were strikes” to which the umpire replied, “Mr. Williams will let you know when you throw a strike”..

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       1. that is amazing, I heard a similar story, I don’t know if both are true or if the story has just gotten twisted over the years, but the version I have heard is a rookie hitter felt like the umpire was giving him an extra wide strike zone because he was a rookie and after being called out on a very borderline call he says to the ump “you wouldn’t have called that a strike on Mickey Mantle!” and the umpire says “you’re right, Mickey Mantle would have hit it 430 ft over the center field fence

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          1. Maybe the game is getting ready for the Rob-Ump and its use of the electronic strike zone.

             https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/

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             1. Interestingly, a recent poll found most players want to keep the human element of the umpire calling balls and strikes.

                Another interesting result, most players don’t want to shorten the season, which one saying he’d play baseball every day of the year if he could.

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          2. Teddy Ballgame:

             Virgil Trucks tells a perhaps apocryphal tale about a game between Detroit and the Red Sox in Boston: “Joe Ginsberg was catching and Williams came up and walked on four straight pitches, and Joe’s questioning the umpire about it. On the last one, he said, ‘Bill’—Bill Summers was the umpire. He said, ‘Bill, don’t you think that ball was a strike?’ And Bill said to Joe, ‘Mr. Ginsberg, Mr. Williams will let you know when it is a strike.’”

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       2. Actually, the story originally was Rogers Hornsby, but like any good story, worth reviving every once in awhile.

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14. Rumors linking the Phils to JA Happ.

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15. Rumors are flying that the Phillies have traded for Machado. It will be announced Wednesday morning.

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    1. it is also said that BAL is trying the delay the announcement of the trade until after the All-Star Game since Machado is the only Al-Star they have. I’m hearing it’s just Machado, Britton is not included. BAL likes Medina, Kilome, Ortiz and Gamboa —names already floated around.

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       1. The key here is that if the players are traded, they will NOT be playing tonight or tomorrow. So we need to see if Kilome, Ortiz, Gamboa are in the lineup the next 2 days. Since Medina pitched yesterday, he will not be pitching before Wednesday anyways.

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          1. BAL is saying that no deal yet and PHI, LAD and MIL are all in play. I expect this posturing from BAL to see if any GM will blink and increase their offer.

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             1. We can still check and see if the players are playing tonight.

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                1. Kilome and Irvin are two pitchers right now slated to start tonight.

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                2. Ortiz is showing in the lineup for the first game

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16. Jayson Stark on Machado:
    Jayson Stark says Machado likely won’t play another game for the Orioles

    @975TheFanatic
    Следване Следване на @975TheFanatic
    Още
    “It looks like there’s a handshake agreement with somebody on a deal, who it is we don’t know yet.” – @jaysonst #bebold

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    1. And looks like Wednesday a deal with someone goes down….Franco may be heading south to Baltimore as part of it..
       NJ.com Sports
       ‏

       @NJ_Sports
       33 минпреди 33 минути
       Още
       MLB trade rumors: Orioles’ Manny Machado to Phillies on Wednesday? http://nj-ne.ws/rBCgH0p

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       1. Franco is playing good right now. You can’t trade him because it would create another hole in the lineup.

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          1. You would think.
             I would not want to give him up now…..maybe he is turning the corner.
             Last 84 PAs…his slash has been excellent…338/.393/.571
             But one of the reports had him as part of the discussion.

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             1. Hello Small Sample Size…

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          2. Chad, you don’t NOT trade a player simply because he’s “playing good right now”. Franco has been a project of highs and lows for several years and with this organization, he is what he is. A change of scenery may be best.

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       2. Should be fascinating to see how this shakes out. If it is Franco Kingery has to stay at SS and Manny to 3B. Franco is the one guy driving in runs so the incremental value of Manny is questionable at that point and what happens to JP?

          If its Kingery Manny stays at SS and heads around here explode. Franco and JP platoon at 3B

          If it’s JP my head explodes and a terrific conundrum presents itself. What do you do with Franco Kingery and MM on the same roster?

          MMs best position is 3B but if you you’re trying to woo him to resign in the fall that could be risky to assign him there. Yeah sure he wants out of Baltimore sooner rather than later but roster construction for a playoff run becomes more messed up than it already is.

          I maintain trading for a rental at this stage is short sighted and dumb and it quite possibly derails the growth or value of a few guys you were counting on for the future.

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          1. “I maintain trading for a rental at this stage is short sighted and dumb..”…MacPhail may be a magician as one of the guys tweeted, maybe even when it comes to contract discussions…..:)

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          2. @DMAR – here’s my take if Machado is acquired…

             a) Machado will continue to play SS — this is to drive his asking price in FA. The way it will change is if Machado and the Phillies will have a mutual agreement on a LTC (which is unlikely). Once Machado got his fat $$ LT contract, he might be OK moving back to 3B.

             b) Klentak should keep JPC if he can. JPC is the insurance assuming Machado walks away (assuming Gamboa is included to acquire Machado). After Gamboa, Maton is probably the best SS which is at least a couple of years away.

             c) Franco is expandable. We’ve seen enough of good, bad and the ugly Franco and it is safe to say that he is not part of the future. JPC looks good at 3B so JPC and Machado can flip flop in the left side of the INF. If Machado stays and insist in playing SS and JPC/Kingery is not a viable option, maybe a Walding/Zach Green/FA is acceptable as #/7/#8 hole hitter.

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             1. We kind of agree on Franco beyond this year but that’s a lot of moving parts you have going on there. I hope it all works out after all we want the same thing another run of division titles, some playoffs and a WS or two.

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                1. @DMAR – yeah, it does. But i think the priority is to acquire Machado and Franco is not a factor in the decision making. My sense is that the Phillies will be flexibile to Machado until a LT contract is signed. Kingery and JPC are still young and can be optioned if necessary. I still believe that Kingery will be the future 2B.

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          3. Trading for MM is dumb if the Phillies give up a horde of prospects that includes Medina, Kilome, Gamboa, and Ortiz – unless MM agrees to a contract extension, which seems darn unlikely.

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             1. And a trade that includes Kingery or Crawford would also be dumb. Franco, okay, but not the other two.

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          4. DMAR … You left out one scenario. Trade Hernandez, play Kingery. Manny, and Franco.

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             1. That’s because that scenario makes no sense. Trading for a rental like Machado puts the team firmly in the win now mode. Kingery maybe the future but CeHe is the vastly superior player right now.

                Who bats leadoff? Hoskins? Santana? Certainly not the sub .300 only Kingery.

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17. Or let’s say you get MM without trading Franco, Kingery or JP now you have to send JP and Kingery down and let them play everyday back at their normal positions

    …..because you just made the statement that you are going for the division this year and that means wins are more important than developing young players and young players don’t develop all that well with long stints of not playing everyday.

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    1. JP is still out with his injury, this season is lost for him anyways.

       Kingery will likely split time with Franco at 3B

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       1. JPs injury is season ending I didn’t know that. That’s a big bummer…

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          1. DMAR…JPC’s broken hand is not season ending….he is due back before mid-August…..it was estimated 6 weeks from June 20th.
             He may be a slow healert ( ie Roman Quinn) and that wil be the drawback.

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          2. It’s not season ending, but by the time he comes back, how can the Phillies rely on him?

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18. Listening to Sirius radio MLB in car at 4:20, Jim Bowden makes comment when discussing Brewers that while they were in on Machado, “its all but done that Machado is a Phillie,.” and strongly implies that no other team really had a chance because Philly is the best place for MM. He would not elaborate further when questioned, even abruptly brushed aside the question – but he knows something.

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    1. seems a number of other sites ive looked at, what Jim Bowden says is laughed at, and people seem to think he makes stuff up.

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       1. I don’t know who Jim Bowden is, but I wouldn’t laugh at him.

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          1. Former Reds’ GM…youngest in baseball history…early 90s

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             1. I still wouldn’t laugh.

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                1. not saying he’s wrong here, but he doesnt have the greatest reputation.

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    2. Jim Bowden is a buffoon whom no one takes serious, so let’s take his opinion with a grain of salt.

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       1. Hah…..a buffoon eh?

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          1. My favorite:

             Brian: Curious if you read jim bowden’s article up today about mlb execs and proposals for the new CBA. specifically related to the draft eligible players some GMs think players should have to “opt-in” so teams don’t lose picks when they decide to go back to school instead of signing. the other was to assign a set $ to each pick in the draft as opposed to a sliding pool. Pretty obvious both those proposals clearly benefit one side while screwing over the other. What are your thoughts?
             Klaw: You lost me in your first seven words.

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19. MLB does not like trade announcements to upstage the All Star game. Wednesday or Thursday the announcement will be made that Machado was traded.

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20. The most consistent rumor I’m getting is that Machado is Philly bound (no Britton) unless LAD and MIL upgrade their current trade offer. Trade can be announced as early as Wednesday. Same 4 prospects already named are the target.

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21. jim says don’t laugh. I believe in Jim. I think Machado comes here. Now what did we give up.

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22. Friday night’s lineup vs SDs LHP Clayton Richards:

    Cesar Hernandez 2b
    Rhys Hoskins lf
    Manny Machado ss
    Carlos Santana 1b
    Odubel Herrera cf
    Scott Kingery 3b
    Jorge Alfaro c
    Aaron Altherr rf
    Aaron Nola p

    How ’bout it! Now I don’t think Hoskins remains the #2. Vs RHPs, I’d rather have Odubel in front of Manny, followed by Hoskins who might be better protected with Santana behind him at #5. Altherr might be moved for all we know.

    Does anyone think Franco, JPC and Medina get us Manny? Or will a 4th player (most likely a 2nd tier arm) be necessary?

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    1. I’m not sure what the trade package is … but pretty sure i saw manny mouth “that’s my teammate” while pumping his arm during Hoskins homerun derby display. He let the cat out of the bag 🙂 … hey I need something to pass the time until Wednesday’s enivitable trade … just need to see the damage

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       1. ………he could also be a few hundred million dollars richer.

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       2. Yeah. I think MM enjoyed Rhys Hoskins last night, and will have a good time teaming up with Hoskins to chew up and spit out opposing pitchers in the (near?) future.

          Soon friends… soon #BeBold https://t.co/jpDdTryH1g

          — Underground Sports Philadelphia (@UndergroundPHI) July 17, 2018

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23. I think one of Franco or JPC, Medina, a 2d Pitching prospect, and another, lower level player

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24. So far … so good for Rhys Hoskins in the HR Derby !

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    1. 21-20 …. what a way to be bumped out. Great performance by Hoskins.

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25. I see in Jim’s latest update the July 16 transaction “Lakewood releases Pickett”. Huh?

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26. Pedro Martinez interviewing Manny and his nephew last night asks the Nephew “if you’re uncle is not on the Orioles what other team would you like to see him play for?” a small pause then the young man says “YANKEES”

    Camera then pans to Manny but no one knows what to make of the smile…

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27. Jon Heyman is tweeting that LAD appears to be in the lead to acquire Machado. PHI, MIL and ARI have outside chance. I can see a possible smoke screen to further drive the asking price. IMO, including Medina is the deal is already an overpayment. Klentak should not call the bluff and include Sixto. Just hold his cards and wait until the end of the season with no prospects and draft pick lost.

    To beat the Medina package, LAD will include to include either Verdugo, Ruiz or White in their offer. Machado is a pure rental for LAD as they have Seager and Turner manning the left side of the INF for years to come. If they want to overpay for a rental, Klentak should let them do it.

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    1. Last seasons JD Martinez trade is the blueprint to follow for Klentak. The D Backs became a nice little story then fizzled out. None the worse for wear they went into the off season with a fresh start.

       Also interesting was DeGrom lobbying for an extension last night then having his agent pile on with you would be wise Mets to extend or trade my client.

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    2. dodgers have enough flexibility moving guys around he’s not necessarily a rental.

       listening to some talk radio fans seemed out of control with giving up whatever necessary to get Machado. I certainly want Machado for the right price, but it doesnt make sense to me that other teams wouldnt offer more when push comes to shove. but with the Manny buzz so strong in Philly, hope they stick to their guns and not give in to the pressure of the moment.

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    3. Gawd, I hope there is no way the Phillies would include both Medina and Sanchez; that would be a massive overpay to rent Machado.

       I still maintain that the Phillies, while much improved, still have a number of flaws and that Machado is not going to get them “over the hump” to a deep playoff run. So the Phillies should not overpay but instead should bide their time until Machado hits the open market. Given what appears to be the Orioles’ asking price for Machado, this is probably a case where the best trade is no trade.

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    4. Dodgers will move Seager to 2B next year after they re-sign Manny, if the Phils don’t get this done now. They should offer Franco, Quinn, Medina, J Ortiz, and Lively, throw in a PTBNL – Suarez if he signs long term, Eshelman if he doesn’t.

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       1. Lively is shut down now…shoulder.
          So cross his name off the list of candidates.

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       2. Agree. Good post. The creative PTBNL could give a significant boost to their chances.

          BTW, speaking of Ortiz, his line today 3-1-2-2, double, BB. Warming up at the right time if he’s in the Manny mix.

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       3. johnny Quinn is injury prone. Lively stinks. Franco is on the downward plane, So you really giving them two propsects who haven’t done anything yet above a ball. Eshelman couldn’t pitch in a softball league who would want him. Look Machado would be great addition. but I wouldn’t part with what they want and that is sixto. not for a rental.

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28. This is my favorite tweet from the HR Derby….

    Hoskins 👀!!! #wow

    — Mike Trout (@MikeTrout) July 17, 2018

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29. Kurdt Kobeyn challenged me to do my top prospect list…so here it is. My mid-season 2018 top prospect list:

    1. Sixto Sanchez
    2. Alec Bohm
    3. Adonis Medina
    4. Enyel De Los Santos
    5. Adam Haseley
    6. Roman Quinn
    7. Jhailyn Ortiz
    8. JoJo Romero
    9. Arquimedes Gamboa
    10. Franklyn Kilome
    11. Spencer Howard
    12. Cole Irvin
    13. Starlyn Castillo
    14. Rodolpho Duran
    15. Matt Vierling
    16. Francisco Morales
    17. Ranger Saurez
    18. Nick Maton
    19. Luis Garcia
    20. Logan O’Hoppe
    21. Connor Seabold
    22. Austin Listi
    23. Kyle Young
    24. Daniel Brito
    25. Darick Hall
    26. Will Stewart
    27. Cornelius Randolph
    28. Rafael Marchan
    29. Simon Muzziotti
    30. JD Hammmer
    31. Mickey Moniak
    32. Bailey Falter
    33. Dominic Pipkin
    33. Edgar Cabral
    34. Colton Eastman
    35. Jonathan Guzman
    36. Logan Simmons
    37. Drew Anderson
    38. Jake Holmes
    39. Jhordany Mezquita
    40. Tom Eshelman

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    1. Number six…Quinn.
       Roman could be roamin’ after the season is over.

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       1. If Quinn was healthy, he would be my #2 prospect. He is an exceptional talent. Just can’t stay healthy. But not ready to give up on him yet.

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    2. @v1 – solid list. I think I got a sense on how you evaluate prospects. I thought I’m the biggest O’Hoppe fan here, until I saw you rank him at #20.

       I consider my limitations in making my rankings. Since I value physical projection highly, prospects in age 18-20 (this is arbitrary) with natural progression will rank high in my list. I play the long game so I normally give or a younger prospects at least 3 years (which I think is a good sample size), then the leash becomes shorter.

       You might be right about Moniak, but he’s only 20 and since I don’t see any indication from the Phillies player development of any red flags, I did not lower his projection despite of the results. If Moniak will finish the year at his current career minor average, he will drop out of the Top 20 and eventually Top 30 if he started slow next season.

       C Randolph, whom I’m not a fan off is in my Top 16 from the time he was drafted until the pre-season and eventually dropped out of my Top 30.

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       1. I see a lot of major red flags with Moniak. Three big ones jump out:
          1. His K rate is awful for someone who is supposed to have a hit tool and has no power. Post all-star break, he has 25 Ks in 76 PAs. That is a horrific contact rate. Age has nothing to do with contact ability.
          2. His second half statistics at both levels are worse than his first half. Meaning, he isn’t getting better at a level, the pitchers are owning him once they get a book on him. This is a terrible sign for a prospect. I always give a prospect a pass in the first half of a new level. But I expect that prospect to figure it out in the second half of that same level. Here is Moniak’s second half:
          – Clearwater: .208/.256/.347
          – Lakewood: .201/.237/.288
          Again, age has nothing to do with that. You can either make adjustments or you can’t.
          3. Terrible walk rate. This was a guy propped up for his hit tool. But he has 9 walk in 290 PAs this season. a 3% walk rate.

          As a comp, Carlos Tocci (hardly an excellent hitting prospect and clearly someone with no power) in his age 20 season played in Clearwater and had a K rate of 13.7 % and a walk rate of 6.1 %.

          At this point, I do not believe that Moniak will ever play in the majors, unless he gets a cup of coffee as a gift. He is so far from being anything that I don’t consider him a prospect. He is out of my top 30. And if it wasn’t for his draft position, he wouldn’t even be considered.

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          1. The Moniak selection is looking like an epic fail. That happens, but it hurts when it happens with the 1/1 pick.

             On a more pleasant note, Adam Haseley is starting to look like an intriguing prospect. I saw Reading play on Saturday and Haseley didn’t get a hit, but he really did look impressive. You can see him growing into a good major league body and he’s very athletic. I’m guardedly optimistic about him.

             One guy who I saw and was not particularly impressive that day was JoJo Romero. He had a weird start. Lots of base runners, and stuff was all over the place. He typically sat 87-89 with his FB except for one inning where he touched 93 and 94 a few times, but it was a head-scratching performance from a prospect evaluation standpoint.

             One other guy who stood out a little was Damek (DAY-mek) Tomscha. He crushed some pitches, didn’t seem fooled by good pitches and drove the ball well. I’m going to keep my eye on him.

             Randolph didn’t play when I was there.

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             1. Oh, yes, and I saw Grullon. He’s pudgy (looks out of shape – I don’t know if he actually is however) and struggled with breaking pitches – I’m definitely not sold on him yet.

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    3. The following prospects that i are ranked higher/lower than from I normally observed:

       #14 Rodolfo Duran
       #20 Logan O’Hoppe (he will jump in my end of season list)
       #21 Austin Listi
       #30 JD Hammer (but no Gowdy)
       #35 Jon Guzman

       I believe in Cole Irvin too (he’s my #16), although the lack of plus pitch concerns me.

       Mitch Rupert talks highly about Jon Guzman. Most of the people I talked to thinks Guzman is almost a consensus Top 20.

       I can see the reason why Gowdy is not included in the Top 30 due to inactivity and health risk. But the ceiling is high and there’s good precedent of prospect’s success under undergoing TJ surgery.

       I hope that Manuel Silva is in your next 10. He can be the next best lefty arm.

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       1. I value good catching prospects so highly. It is such a valuable position. What Duran is doing right now is extremely impressive. 20 year old catcher with big power, respectable K rates and walk rates and good defense. That is a very valuable prospect. I might be the high man on O’Hoppe. Might be irrational exuberance.

          As for Gowdy, the kid hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2 years. I have no idea what kind of stuff he has post surgery. He is a non-prospect to me until he proves otherwise.

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          1. from 23rd round pick to #20 ranked prospect in a month has to be some kind of record.

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          2. @v1 – i got a different scouting info for Duran. His K rate is decent but his BB rate is low. The defense is not good but passable. My top catching prospect is basically 1a, 1b and 1c between Abraham Gutierrez, Rafael Marchan and Logan O’Hoppe and this trio projects as a better offensive catcher than Rodolfo Duran. O’Hoppe is probably the better prototypical catching prospect with power potential, agile legs and strong arm.

             I also value catching prospects, but TOR/MOR arms ranks higher to me — Morales, Pipkin, Ranger, etc. should rank higher than Duran.

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    4. v1 … thanks for sharing. You and I remain the high men on Roman Quinn.
       Your turn, Romus (and anyone else with the time to put a list together).

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    5. Randolph at 27 is either b/c of his pedigree as a 1st round selection, or more disparagingly, b/c we have no solid OF prospects outside of Ortiz.

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       1. So I still have some hope on Randolph. I thought that he had a very good second half at Clearwater last year. At a young age, he showed power and ability to take a walk. I had high expectations for this year. Pre-season, he was in my top 10. So moving him down to 27 is a massive fall. The big difference between him and Moniak is that he has power. Moniak has nothing. I am not completely out on C yet, but really want to see him finish the season well. But I could be wrong on him.

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          1. The thing with Randolph’s profile is that unless he’s a .300/.380/.450 slasher, his value is at best marginal. He’s a LF/DH type with slight power, not enough speed to be a baserunning threat, or tall enough to play 1b. Let’s say his bat does come around. Then what is he to us?

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             1. I mean i have him ranked 27th. That is a pretty big fall.

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          2. Sadly I agree with you on MM. But C’s season has been an even bigger disaster to be honest. I guess we could hope for a solid end to the season and then 2019 he repeats the level and shows marked improvement?

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    6. I know These lists are opinion, & not fact … but damn it hurts to see Moniak so low on anyone’s list … I don’t know what’s worse, losing 100 games in a season or whiffing on a #1 draft pick … also, hurts to see cozens off the list too with where he was at reading, 40 hrs.

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       1. TBH … I didn’t include Cozens because IMO he is now a big leaguer (even though he technically has prospect eligibility).

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          1. I didn’t include Cozens because he is not a MLB prospect.

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    7. v1, a little crowded at #33.

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30. Roman Quinn is due back this season and I expect to see him with the Phils by whatever date makes him eligible for the Playoffs. I think that is August 30.

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    1. matt13….on Quinn..hope you are right.
       If not however, he could be a Rule 5 casualty come November.
       It was between him and Tocci last year…not sure if he will sneak in this year or not.

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       1. @romus – the Phils only have 6 OFs in their 40-man which includes Hoskins. I don’t see any OF to be added from the farm. The following can be casualty of the roster purge (via DFA, non tender or trade for cash/PTBNL) by the end of the season:

          1) Zach Curtis
          2) Hector Neris
          3) Luis Garcia
          4) Pedro Florimon
          5) Mark Leiter
          6) Mitch Walding
          7) Jake Thompson
          8) Ben Lively

          So Roman Quinn and Drew Anderson might survive the cut again.

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          1. KuKo…that could be since there are no other minor league OFers that need 40 protection….unless Jose Pujols agains goesuo their charts, or Matt K picks up another one before Nov.
             You also lumped pitchers in that….you should exclude them because MLB teams will also want a few dozen or a little more on their 40.
             The Phillies will need to decide on 2 or 3 catchers this year.. Grullon I assume will be the one in question…so that deducts one from the infielder or outfielder groupings

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             1. @romus – assuming Klentak ditched the arms I mentioned above, the Phils will have 19 pitchers left and they are expected to protect Eshelman, Edgar Garcia and Adonis Medina (if no Machado trade) to bring the number of arms to 22 (13 SPs and 9 RPs) with 2-3 potential open roster spots. The Phils can either add Tyler Gilbert, Jeff Singer or sign FAs if they need more arms.

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                1. Kuko….go thru every MLB teams’ 40…and count the number of pitchers on it….you will not find any team with 19 or less…..may not find any team with 22 or less.

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                2. @romus – i already did that exercise long time ago. Not counting any 60-DL, most numbers I’ve seen is 22-23 arms in the 40-man. This make sense since teams need about 17-18 position players — 13 starters + 4-5 in the minors (consist of a C, 2 INF and 2 OF). So my 22 arms is a good number with 2-3 roster space to add players to fill holes.

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    2. matt … agree with you. Quinn is a must as a bench piece/pinch runner when rosters expand in September. And … there is no way (IMO) Klentak would expose Quinn to the rule 5 draft.
       Romus … where is Quinn on your top 50 ?

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       1. Hinkie…..if Quinn is on the DL at the end of the season, I do not see Quinn being protected, ….looking back now….they should have protected Tocci and exposed Quinn lsat year, if all the team was interested in was a 4th defensive OFer
          And if it comes down to Grullon as the third catcher, and Quinn as the 6th OFer again…i see it as Grullon getting protected.
          If Quinn gets thru the Rule 5, then like ToJo three years ago, he gets a minor league contract.
          I do not have a 50 set up……but right now he would be in the mid teens, around 15-18 range.

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          1. Disagree on Tocci and Quinn. Quinn is in a completely different stratosphere as a prospect. I understand he takes a hit for his history of injuries. But … I’d take a part time Quinn over an every day available Carlos Tocci any time. Have you seen any of Tocci this year ? He’s slashing .086/.200/.086. Seriously, he’s slugging .086. I don’t care how competent he is in CF, this team could not have lived with Tocci on the roster this season. I’ll take my chances Quinn recovers by September.

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             1. Yes, Carlos Tocci is a joke (sorry, he is) – you looked at him and knew within 10 seconds he would never have the “man strength” to drive major league pitches. He otherwise has good baseball skills but he has no shot as a major league hitter. I have been telling people on this site this very thing for years and now maybe people will believe me.

                Quinn is an extraordinarily talented player who clearly has major league ability, perhaps even the ability of a first division regular, but he just can’t stay healthy and, as they say, ya can’t make the club in the tub. But the ability is there – but whether he can ever stay healthy is anybody’s guess – I think given his history, the odds are against it. But he’d be a very cool guy to have on a 40-man roster in September at the very least.

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31. I see the Greg Pickett experiment has some to a spectacular end. Bummer.

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32. This is based on hope on my part Romus. I think he adds such an extra dimension that will be a big help in a Playoff Series or a 1 game WC.

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33. I really hate all the conflicting reports by so-called “insiders”. Either we got him or we didn’t. I know they want to wait until tomorrow because of the All Star game, but I am ready to know now. I know I sound like my grandkids!

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    1. It’s like my parents when I was just a boy wanting me to go to bed early Christmas Eve….

       Ain’t happening. I can’t sleep when I’m thinking about shiny new toys.

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    2. Couldn’t agree more, Matt. These insiders must have different “sources” with varying agendas. How easy it is to sound like a voice of knowledge. Hell, a guy on 94WIP yesterday said his friend, a hotel employee somewhere, spoke briefly with Crawford who glumly indicated that he was moving on as he packed up to check out. Now that’s not a credible story of course. But I’m just as inclined to believe that tale than vague allusions to ‘this team leap frogged that team’.

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34. This makes me feel sad. Visiting CA is part of my daily routine.

    http://crashburnalley.com/2018/07/17/announcement-about-the-future-of-crashburn-alley/

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35. Not sure if anyone saw this:

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36. For some reason the hyperlink isn’t showing… Cord Sanberg is going back to college to play football

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    1. http://www.tampabay.com/sports/florida-gators/2018/07/17/former-dan-mullen-signee-cord-sandberg-names-3-finalists/

       Best of luck to Cord. Saw him in Lakewood a few summers ago and had a chance to chat with him pre-game. Good dude. Hope he excels in college.

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37. According to Ken Rosenthal, the O’s are checking through physical and medical records on players before finalizing what is supposed to be a deal structurally in place. Dodgers or Phillies? Who knows?

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38. I’m not sure of this … but … I think the O’s would have to eat some of MM’s contract in order for the Dodgers to not go over the luxury tax threshold (and the Dodgers worked very hard to reset that penalty this winter). Baltimore is a pretty thrifty club. Maybe that plays a part in their decision. IDK.

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    1. @Hinkie – this is why I think that the LAD as the frontrunner is a smoke screen to squeeze Klentak into giving up Sixto in the trade.

       LAD’s trade package is highlighted by the Cuban RF – Yusniel Diaz. BAL insist on getting at least 2 controllable arms in a Machado trade. This doesn’t add up.

       Also, LAD is likely to transfer a contract (said to be Forsythe) since they don’t want to breach the luxury tax threshhold. BAL will trade Machado because they don’t want to pay — that’s why the preference to acquire cost controlled prospects close to the majors.

       The Phillies perceived offer of Medina, Kilome, Ortiz and Gamboa appears to check all the boxes that BAL requires. In addition, BAL minor league teams are in at least 3 leagues with the Phils so they know the Phillies prospects very well. Scouts and player development team loves familiarity.

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       1. Yusniel Diaz looked like a top tier prospect in that Futures Game this weekend. My guess is the Orioles would also want Gavin Lux and Dustin May from the LAD.
          That said … where there’s smoke,there’s usually fire. I’ve seen enough reporting that claims the Phillies are ~24 hours away from obtaining Manny Machado. I’m inclined to believe that. These Dodgers rumors may just be another attempt to get the Phillies to up their offer one more time. Would absolutely not include Sixto in a MM rental. If that’s the case … just hold on to Sixto, Medina, Kilome, Ortiz, and all my prospects and sign Machado this winter for just money.

          Sources: The Orioles have structure of a deal in place, and are going through the medicals/paperwork portion of the transaction. Dodgers have been very invested in their pursuit of Machado, as have the Phillies and other teams, but this in not finished yet.

          — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 17, 2018

          Nothing done yet, of course, but hearing #Phillies remain “aggressively motivated” in Machado talks, according to a source. Internally, confidence remains high that they can land him.

          — Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) July 17, 2018

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          1. AL executive to @jaysonst on the Phillies' interest in Machado: “I know that front office loves Manny. He fills their biggest needs – a bat on that side of the infield and a star who drives attendance. …" https://t.co/xBy9Y2ZATV pic.twitter.com/gMJkHdeb7s

             — The Athletic Philadelphia (@TheAthleticPHI) July 17, 2018

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       2. I agree – and while it’s not popular I don’t look at the current team and think they have a realistic shot to win a championship even with Machado.

          I like adding a guy like Merrifield, Britton and, if they think he’s going to come back healthy, Josh Donaldson. Donaldson is a superb ballplayer who has been hurt this year. His expiring contract and injury means they can pick him up for very little. I’d take my chances on that one if you don’t get Machado.

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39. Bringing DH to NL is gaining momentum among players as per MLBPA chief.

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    1. My feelings on this have changed over the years. I’m ready for this. Yeah I get the strategy issues, blah, blah, blah. But pitchers hitting just results in starters getting pulled early, ugly pitcher at-bats and more pitching changes. I think the positive outweighs the negative.

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       1. catch, very, very, very reluctantly, I am starting to agree. Ugh!

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          1. The DH is no more radical than the clock or the three-point shot in basketball and that game has only changed for the better with those amendments.

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             1. Yes, when something is 45 years old, it’s no longer weird or radical. It’s time.

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    2. KuKo….”Bringing DH to NL is gaining momentum among players as per MLBPA chief.”..it is to their benefit to endorse that. and It may lead to an increase of he roster in a few years…..more players for the union.

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       1. I would like to see a modified DH. Something that means DH can not be used late in the game.

          It could be innings or appearances, but I would say that DH only get two appearances the after that one of the players is removed.
          Therefore I do not need to see pitcher hit for early innings… but come 6th inning a manager needs to decide to keep batter and replace pitcher or be willing to let starting pitcher bat if doing well into late innings.

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40. Could Philadelphia lose the second super-star to Los Angeles within a month?

    @BNightengale
    The Baltimore #Orioles say that barring a last minute snag, they will trade Manny Machado on Wednesday with the #Dodgers, #Brewers and #Phillies still in talks. The #Dodgers remain the likely destination over the #Brewers.

    12:25 PM – Jul 17, 2018
    The Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly heavily in the mix and included top prospect Yusniel Diaz in their offer to Baltimore. According to the report, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies are also still in talks with Baltimore.

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    1. looks like it romus..

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       1. rocco….is this you?
          If so…..welcome back.

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    2. My plans B1 and B2 if Manny falls through:

       Whit Merrifield, versatile IF/OF with SB propensity and high OBP guy. Righty bat. Lead off type.

       Eduardo Escobar, also versatile and SS is his primary position. Switch hitter with more pop than Merrifield.

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       1. Most importantly, he gets on base AND he has 4 more years of control.

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          1. Merrifield is like Cesar but a bit better at almost everything. Should be quite expensive to get. Trade Kingery for Merrifield?

             I like Escobar. May only cost AAA pitcher in trade. Probably more of 3b type but could replace Kingery, leaving Escobar, Franco, then Crawford for SS 3B combo.

             Would prefer Beltre for experience but Escobar is more flexible as fielder and switch hitter.

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    3. I had the Dodgers landing him all along as it was the most natural fit once Seager went down for the season. Not to mention they had the depth to pull it off and the caliber of team to benefit from the rental.

       With an extremely weak NL this essentially cements them into at least the NLCS.

       Now go win at the margins Klentak and get Castellanos instead.

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41. What would be worse – holding on to our prospects and not acquiring Manny either by trade or later FA, only to see these prospects fall short of our Hope’s, OR acquiring Manny via trade now and watching at least one or two of these kids succeed as MLB players.

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    1. Even if LA acquires Machado tomorrow….they will be getting that much closer to the lux tax threshold for next year’s projection if they plan on trying to sign him long term

       https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12Fdcz-v1dHv7WUA6N73JhLNL7cZ-JCaUSRyh8LQvG7A/pubhtml

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       1. If LAD (as opposed to MIL or ARZ) acquires him, I believe that significantly lessens our chances of signing him in the winter. They will manage to move high end talent for pitching and keep him. It’s not that WE have to get him now so much as WHO gets him now. That changes the landscape dramatically. Yes, Middleton is motivated to spend spend spend. But the LA west coast scene can be powerfully alluring. I mean, how many more millions might he hold out for? Am I naive?

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          1. Well to some extent , the Dodgers could be the favorites to resign him, and if they make it to the WS again, that could also be a factor in him wanting to stay out there.
             They still will need to adjust their finances however to structure a contract like his onto their overall payroll and below the threshold.
             Seager and Bollinger will be getting bump ups as they start going further into their arb seasons and if they progress, the Dodgers may well have to give them that lucrative extension.. But agree that West Coast allure will be difficult to overcome.

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          2. Marketing wise, MLB is not as big as NBA so I’m not sure what’s the financial upside for Machado staying in LA area considering the higher CA taxes and cost of living. If $$ is the same, I can see Machado choosing NYY over LAD.

             The Phillies advantage really is they are farther away from the luxury tax where the cost per $$ becomes double so they can win a bidding war. With internal options (Seager, Turner for LAD and Gregorious, Torres, Andujar for NYY) available, are LAD and NYY use the available $$ to sign and try to fit Machado or address other areas of need? Both LAD and NYY are in high or starting pitchers.

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    2. Not sure but you use your prospects wisely as the Red Sox did to acquire Sale you do don’t use them to acquire rentals when you are clearly many pieces away from a WS.

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       1. I agree with this, which is why I’m okay with using less than premier prospects to get help in a number of areas.

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       2. DMAR, I agree. While the idea of Machado excites me, I have mostly rooted against a deal for him. You are correct that the Red Sox are a great example. As are the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, and even the Yankees.

          How about this compare…
          The Eagles.
          Did the Eagles win the SB because last offseason they signed the top free agents? No. They filled their holes with smart, upside players that fit their team strategy and chemistry. And in mid-season they traded to improve an important area but they did not give up the farm/future for him.

          And what about the 2008 Phillies….
          We won the WS NOT because we went out and got Halladay or Lee or Oswalt or Pence. The big offseason move had been to trade for Brad Lidge, and the biggest trade-deadline deal was to get Joe Blanton!

          So, trading 4 strong prospects for a 2 month rental of MM is not my preference.

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          1. Strong points John I totally agree…the only flip side to that possibly is if Middleton is getting the itch and directing the FO to get him in here.

             Owners sometimes lose patience with the plan faster than the GMs

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             1. DMAR, I hear ya. Middleton really wants to win (evidenced by his excitement during the Eagles run). Sooo, here’s my suggestion to scratch his “itch”…
                And it’s similar to your point about Red Sox saving prospects to acquire Sale (not a rental).

                As I wrote last week, I used to roll my eyes at the ‘trade for Trout’ comments, but I now believe the time is right.

                I’d make Moreno an offer he can’t help but consider. Send the Brinks truck (of players & prospects) to ‘buy’ him before he can ‘buy’ the rest of Trout’s future. Trout would be exponentially important to the team, the org, and the city!

                Cesar or Kingery (strong proven player or top prospect)
                Nick Williams (maturing OF, ready to be a starter)
                Eflin or DLS
                Sixto Sanchez (or Medina if there’s concern for Sixto injury)
                Brito or JGuzman or BGonzalez (or Gamboa if they insist)
                Moniak or Quinn (CF prospect) (or JOrtiz if they insist on power prospect)
                Irvin or Suarez or Taveras or Eshelman…

                It’s a mix of proven MLB players and top prospects. It starts with Sixto and Kingery, and could include several more very strong players/prospects. …I don’t know what else they specifically need/want but we could adjust accordingly.

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                1. I think Moreno will want Nola first…then maybe two top ten Phillies prospects.

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                2. The Phils might need to give up Nola for Mike Trout.

                   Klentak can start throwing the Top 6 prospects for Mike Trout —- Sixto, Medina, Bohm, Haseley, Ortiz and JoJo plus Cesar and Alfaro. This may not be enough. But the Phils can afford to wait until Mike Trout is a FA. They just need to continue accumulate pieces and make smart additions.

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                3. If a deal like that were to go down for Trout it’s not likely to be this year or during a season. Jo Adell is coming along nicely and if Kershaw were to opt out I think Moreno would go hard after him.

                   Now let’s say the Halo’s miss out on serious upgrades to their SP this off season then you might start to get his attention. I think Doobie would have to be in some type of trade.

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                4. This is insane. Reminds me of the Herschel Walker trade. I have to stop reading these posts – it is going to make my head explode. In two years after the trade we will be in a rebuilding process again. HELL NO!

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42. Much rather have Medina and Ortiz in the PhuturePhillies box scores for the rest of the year than see Manny playing for the Phillies this year. Especially when trading for him now doesnt benefit us at all when trying to sign him in the off season

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    1. Yup.

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43. I believe the only way the Phillies don’t acquire Manny in the off season is if he truly has his heart on the Yankee’s. Middleton is not going to be outbid.

    His little nephew said it all last night on live national TV and kids don’t lie

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44. I will say this. The fact that Middleton is involved gives me a trace of hope. We would have been long out of the Manny picture by now if not.

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45. The Phillies have no one currently OPSing over 900 that’s a problem. You have a RF OPS of 752 meh at best and a very paltry 619 at SS. Every other spot is kind of holding its own.

    Castellanos and his 877 OPS would look really good for us and or Escobar and his 834 at SS.

    and you would think neither would require our best pieces and heck if you want to get crazy Choo and his 911 OPS can probably be had for nothing just eat some of the remaining money and maybe they even toss in Diekman.

    Feels like they have tunnel vision right now when so many creative possibilities exist.

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46. As twitted by MattWinks….I agree with MattWinks about Morales, Luis Garcia and Jon Guzman. Morales and Guzman are the other prospects I lobbied hard during the prospect rankings.

    BA put out their midseason top 10 (writeups behind paywall)
    1. Sanchez
    2. Bohm
    3. Medina
    4. Dominguez (not actually prospect eligible anymore based on service time)
    5. De Los Santos
    6. Romero
    7. Suarez
    8. Haseley
    9. Morales
    10. Garcia https://t.co/Bd9W8Ps3YY

    — Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) July 17, 2018

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    1. Why would BA put out team;’ mid-season top ten prior to July 31st!
       Makes no sense..
       For sure most of all the playoff contending teams will have some of those current pieces gone.
       MLB.com have decided as usual after the trade deadline is completed, to wait until August to put theirs out. Waiver trades in August are minimal to a lesser extent.

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47. Multiple reports have Manny Machado likely headed to the Dodgers, but #Phillies have no reason to believe they’re out of it yet. Doesn’t mean they’ll get him. It just means nothing is finalized.

    — Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) July 17, 2018

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    1. This is what an addict must feel like… I’vr been constantly refreshing trade rumors for the past few days …

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    2. This is what we live for. But damn how I hate roller coasters. But wait! This just in…..

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       1. Ok, I’m officially expecting the Phillies to lose out on machado. Too much media sources saying the fat lady is singing. It will have to be that much sweeter in the off-season to sign him away. Dodgers choke, specifically kershaw 🙂

          The young players will have to prove their worth. Need Alfaro, Kingery, and Williams to step up on the offensive side.

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          1. Don’t know what the taxes are in BAL for athletes, but I’m hoping it is similar to PA, so Machado can see the pain of the extra 6% in his paycheck 🙂 …. of course that’s a totally different level than us common folk but… pretty sure no one likes paying taxes!

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          2. I guess JA Happ and Josh Donaldson do not move your excitement needle!

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             1. hi romus m8 I love to get Donaldson.

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             2. it does and it doesn’t. Im not sure Haap and Donaldson get us to where we need. who gets bumped from the rotation? And is that in the best interest for the “window” of going after a championship? Donaldson would be fun to watch if he could get on a decent roll. I guess I’d do it, but I’d hope the trade package would be pathetic to get it done. LIke Cozens, Mills, and Thompson. If not, I’d be happy to roll the dice with what they have. I was higher on the team than most at the begining of the year, and they have exceed my expectations. Boost the bullpen some, and i’ll be happy to let it roll. This offseasn on … its time to let the floodgates flow with FA signings and trades. Time to get after it,

                I’d start chirping in the Angels ears about Trout. I’m not expecting it a trade yet, but The Angels could be in a similar spot with Trout in a few years. Seeing what BAL is going through now might make them sell earlier to get a huge haul back for a HOF player. Will see, I can hope at least, maybe this time next offseason it will be for trout.

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                1. I would appeal to LAA and press the two obvious things they need to understand before it’s TOO late for them ala Baltimore now:
                   1 they are not a good organization, their system is among the weakest in MLB, and yet they don’t want to rebuild from the ground up, and
                   2 Mike Trout’s iron strong link to Philadelphia and the fact that things here are trending north should be compelling enough to at least consider a package of young major league players mixed with high level minor league talent.

                   Therefore I propose the Phillies offer LAA the following NOW:
                   Cesar Hernandez
                   Odubel Herrera
                   Maikel Franco
                   Any one of Velasquez, Eflin, Pivetta, or DLS
                   Adonis Medina
                   Any one of Irvin, Suarez or Romero

                   In the meantime, the Phillies can bite the bullet at SS until they pursue Manny in the winter. Perhaps acquire an Asdrubel or Escobar. Go after Harper this winter. If Middleton wants to go balls to the wall, now is the time.

                   Amen?

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       2. This all reminds me of when I found this site in 2009. All the speculation was the Phillies trading see combination of the big 3 (Taylor, Drabek, and Brown) for Halliday and then out of left field we get the Cliff Lee trade.

          Interesting side note: I went to the same highschool as Jason Knapp. I don’t know if North Hunterdon hads ever produced a MLB player. We had a couple in the NFL.

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          1. You are right Aron, but I would add that the Phils system today is much, emphasize on much, more regarded today. Yes, Drabek was well thought of, and Carrasco became good a few years alter, but the prospects we have today are a different level. And, Lee was still under control and Doc wanted to come here.

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48. Welcome back roccom! I am resigned to Machado going to LA, and I am partially happy that we did not give up 4 of our Top 10 prospects, and hope they all play great. I still have a belief, I am not sure how strong, that the Phils are confident that they sign MM in the off season. I want them to add this year, somehow, both in the BP and a hitter, to see how far they can go. Going forward, there is a need for a Superstar player. Their best player is not here yet. No offense to Rhys or Cesar or Kingery in 3 years, but that guy is not here and is not in the system. If they fail to sign MM, where do they go? Middleton’s $ is only good if someone, and the right someone, takes it. Spending a lot on mediocre talent just to spend money is worse than not spending it.

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    1. ty matt

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49. for poo and giggles. .. what do you think it would take to get Trout in a trade, assuming the Angels were willing. 6, 7, or 8 players?

    Sixto, Medina, Efflin or Pivetta
    Kingery or JPC, Ortiz, and Hasley or Bohm
    Do they have to add in Santana, herrera, or cesar?

    throwing stuff at the wall… hoskins and nola would be the only two off the table for me

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50. Since we lost our on Machado, my new trade target is DeGrom

    Vinny + Medina + Haseley for DeGrom

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    1. Doubt the Mets would do that trade. I wouldn’t, in their place.

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       1. WE ARE NOT LIGHT ON STARTING PITCHING!!! We don’t need to sacrifice to get DeGrom – not necessary or desirable.

          We need capable hitting – especially a player with a good hit tool who can routinely drive in the runners that are constantly in scoring position and are stranded by the hitters in the lower half of our order.

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          1. You are putting a lot of weight on the performance of three SPs with no long term track record. The league will adjust to Eflin and Pivetta. It is a guess whether they can adjust back.

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    2. @v1 – that might be too light. Being in the same division, NYM will try to squeeze as much as they can from the Phillies. I think NYY will be the best match for NYM and it appears that de Grom loves to play in NY for a while.

       Hinkie proposed to acquire Blake Snell. I like the idea as long as it will not include Sixto. Other possibilities are Archer, Stroman and Fulmer.

       My suggested approach to address the rotation are:

       1) Patience – Let Nola and Arrieta anchor the rotation and see what they have in Pivetta, Eflin, Vinny and delos Santos. Sixto and Medina will be ready in 2 years time.

       2) Free agency – Corbin, Richards, Keuchel, Eovaldi are available this offseason and SAle, MadBum and Cole the year after.

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       1. Yeah. Maybe too light. That’s fair.

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       2. Has there been any update on Sixto? I fear that they may go with rest until the offseason and then decide he needs Tommy John. He would than have missed more than a year and a half and be way behind schedule.

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51. Any trade w Trout starts with Nola AND Sixto. You are prob also adding in Medina and Crawford. Ortiz as well. Get the picture . . .

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    1. A trade for Mike Trout would involve an epic give up – it would be stupid and counterproductive when this team is flush with cash and can just pay players. It would likely result in a new rebuild 3 years from now.

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    2. A Trout trade…the timing has to be right.
       Moreno will not want to be in the same position as the Angelos’ were this year with Manny.
       So if he cannot get Trout signed prior to Dec 2019….then that is when I would make the first offer at the meetings.
       And if the Angels are still floundering in the middle of the pack of the AL-West in 2019 and miss out on the playoffs again, Mike may want to move on anyway.
       His last year is 2020 in LA, and he becomes a rental in July 2020 for two months…same scenario as Machado now….and selling lower than Moreno would like.

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       1. Ironic that both Manny and Trout are currently with two of the weakest, most inept organizations in baseball. However, that isn’t necessarily an advantage to suitors willing and able to strike deals earlier as a reasonable course of action.

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          1. The only advantage for Philadelphia prior to the 2020 season, or in the 2020 season….is his willingness to come East, and I assume to the Phillies to finish his career.
             Then again, the Phillies do not have to do anything in a form of a trade, and just sign him as a FA if he is still available in Nov 2020…….maybe like Manny will be in four months.

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52. Sixto had better turn out to be a stud.

    Different regime, but at 2009 deadline we wouldn’t include Dom Brown in a deal for Doc Halladay which would have made us that much more formidable against NYY in the Series. Yes we can still go after Manny in the winter, but I wish it was only a matter of offering more money.

    Now the real test. How will Klentak and Co. augment this roster? Moustakas might add power if not much else, but then Franco + must then be moved for bullpen help. Britton? Personally, I like KCs Merrifield most among possible options as a super U. Castellanos should be a target to solidify RF. I also think either Hamels or Happ would be a wise, relatively inexpensive way to add a seasoned #3 to the rotation.

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    1. In my mind, IF Josh Donaldson is likely to come back healthy, I like the idea of a Happ and Donaldson trade – it kills two birds with one stone and, man, Donaldson is an awesome player when he’s healthy and he’ll come at 1/4 the cost of Machado.
       The Blue Jays have two expiring contracts and need to get prospects.

       My guess is that it would cost something like Franco (doesn’t matter – he won’t be the third baseman for the 2019 Phillies in any event), one of Suarez/Irvin/Romero, Valentin and another B/C prospect (Lllovera or Gamboa). That would be a little heavy on the Phillies’ end, but, really, that’s where the Phillies’ depth comes in handy – all of those players can be replaced or are already redundant.

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       1. You do that trade and add Britton and you’re almost all the way there (a power hitting rightfielder would be a nice add).

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          1. Understand Donaldson is coming off the DL in a few weeks.and has had some rehab games with Dunedin in the FSL so maybe he will be healthy and ready to go by August.

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             1. Again, if the team thinks he will likely be healthy, he’s a really good, possible big upside acquisition. I feel the same about Hamels, who I think is just suffering from the malaise/hopelessness of pitching for a bad team in a hitters’ park. He’ll be a different guy back here – I can almost guarantee it.

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                1. Obviously, the Phillies would not acquire Happ and Hamels – it will be one or the other – ironic, isn’t it?

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                2. A. Happ/Donaldson pairing
                   B. Hamels/Beltre pairing
                   C. Duffy/Moustakas pairing
                   …not sure where I am on either of the three above. They each come with their own respective pros and cons…..and what it would take to get them in return.

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       2. I would offer Jc Crawford. Suarez and Hall or listi. that’s it.

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          1. Welcome back, rocco !!!
             … and that’s way too much for A and B. I’m not a fan of Duffy, so IMO, it’s also too much for C.

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       3. agree overall but if TOR is dealing Donaldson, they will bring up Vlad to play 3rd so doubt interest in Franco.

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          1. nah they are leaving him in AAA this year. service time.

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    2. It would have been inconceivable for us to get both Halliday and Lee in 2009. Lee was a good as you could have possibly asked for in the 2009 post season.

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53. I think that is safe to assume that we will not sign either Machado or Harper in the off season.

    On Machado, I think there is zero chance that LA gave up the package that it did without the intention of signing him in the off season. And I doubt that we can materially out bid the LAD without doing something completely stupid that is way, way above market. And once Machado gets a taste of LA life, he is not coming to Philly if the numbers are close. Sorry, I love Philly. Grew up there. But let’s be honest.

    And watching Harper in the All Star game, I just don’t think the Nats will let him walk. And if they do, then there are going to be a lot of bidders. Again, we have no advantage on Harper besides paying above market.

    I think Harper is more possible than Machado, but still a low probability. I think Machado is gone for Phillies forever.

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    1. I don’t think it safe to assume either one but thankfully, we’ll have to wait until after the season to find out after having not given up major prospects to rent MM for the next 60 games…

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       1. I hope that you are right…but it seems like drawing to an inside straight to me.

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    2. @v1 – I don’t personally know Machado but the LA lifestyle effect is always overblown. Unless someone wants to have fun and celebrity struck, LA lifestyle is toxic. LA lifestyle is more suited to fun loving, young and single folks than an immigrant who prefers to live close to family and with a low profile wife.

       As for the $$, LAD is closer to the luxury tax threshold where the cost per $$ that higher. The $35M AAV that the Phils can offer will cost more $35M for AAV. If Machado wants to go big market and and big city lifestyle, NYY is the threat for Philly not LAD.

       I’m an optimistic and always look at the glass half full – I say Middleton have to approach Lozano (Machado) and Boras (Harper) strong and make an impression to other teams that the Phillies are playing the big boys game.

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       1. I should say “The $35M AAV that the Phils can offer to Machado will cost more than $35M AAV for LAD”….

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          1. you honestly believe that the LAD gave up that package of elite prospects and didn’t do the math about cost?

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             1. @v1 – every team has accountants so every team is doing costs everyday, not just LAD. Payroll costs, general and admin expenses, actual vs budget, every costs is being managed almost every week for all baseball teams because they are a business entity.People are easy to say that LAD, NYY and BOS don’t care about luxury tax since they are not the ones paying for it. Running a baseball team is running a business, bottom line does matter and most executives got their performance bonus based on the bottom line.

                Under the new GM, LAD has been very stingy in giving up their upper echelon prospects because they now the value of controlling costs. LAD will try not to let Machado out of the door, but LAD is not the only big boy in the league.

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       2. I’m not worried about that – everyone knows the Phillies will spend. The agents will be on the Phillies in a big way. And now the team is also good. They will be fine – if they pay, players will come. You can’t guarantee exactly who will come (like some posters who guaranteed MM would be here – GIVE ME A BREAK – there are many other teams with money who want him, there’s no guarantee), but good players will come.

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          1. Yes the Phillies will spend big bucks. But the question is whether they will still spend smart. The bigger talent may go elsewhere if it’s more desirable to do so. A lot of midlevel players agents will be drawn to the Phillies for an overpay. Let’s hope we get one big fish until Trout arrives in ’21.

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             1. It’s a legit concern – you don’t want too many Carlos Santana signings. He’s okay, but was probably well overpaid, even on a shorter contract. The Arrieta deal, to me, seemed to be more balanced.

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                1. 1000000% agree, when you save money for a few big players and don’t get those players, the WORST thing they can do is then go overpaying lower level guys just for the sake of spending. I do fear that.

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       3. Philly seems like the stalking horse to me…good enough for second place in a winner takes all contest.

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          1. Though it does beat ‘show ‘ or further down the pack…for now.
             Middleton probably is not amenable to the situation.

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          2. A lot of Philly fans are saying that this is a bad summer for Philly sports since they lost on every big time players – LeBron, PG13, Kawhi and Machado. Looking at the surface, this is true. But I look beyond that.

             On Machado – now knowing what BAL received from LAD, I don’t blame Klentak at all. The rumored package headlined by Medina is a solid package for a rental. I’m not sure if including Eflin or delos Santos (I prefer to keep Medina over those 2) can change something, but Klentak did push his chips on the table.

             On LeBron – business and family. Easy decision for LeBron.

             On Kawhi – it is rumored that Kawhi doesn’t want to even play for TOR and that the Sixers has an insider knowledge of Kawhi injury. Sixers offer is good, but the risk is too much.

             On PG13 – is LA cannot sign him, why do we expect the Sixers to do it.

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          3. Nah, I don’t see that for every player. But it will likely mean that they will need to be the highest bidder for some of these players – at least for now.

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    3. I am guessing that you didn’t have a bank account with $150 million in it while you lived there…true?

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       1. LOL..

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    4. rocco….its not like that at Hollywood Park! 🙂

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    5. V1, couldn’t agree with you more. We just lost out on Machado for good unless we over pay by a large margin. I was thinking this might have pushed Harper into Middletons arms once losing out on Machado but i’m not so sure. This off season was supposed to be the off season to augment the roster in FA. Who do we go after now? Pitching? Corbin? Machado to LA is a punch in the gut.

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54. The #Orioles will reportedly receive Yusniel Diaz (#Dodgers No. 4), Dustin May (No. 10) and Errol Robinson (No. 18) from the @Dodgers in exchange for Manny Machado: https://t.co/ngSAORb4Fw pic.twitter.com/Q36STrd3b6

    — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 18, 2018

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    1. I think the Phillies offer (Medina/Kilome/Ortiz/Gamboa) was deeper, but Diaz is a better prospect than any of the four the Phillies offered.
       What does all this mean?
       Short term – I think the Phillies will trade for other (lesser) pieces and still compete for the division title. The chances of the Phillies winning the NL pennant certainly decreases, and I don’t think this team had any chance of winning the WS with or w/o MM.
       Long term – As I’ve posted ~100 times already, Machado is not going to sign a LTX with the Dodgers (or any team that would have dealt for him). So … the Phillies will just have to wait four more months to acquire him. In the meantime, the club gets to keep Adonis Medina, Franklyn Kilome, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Arquimedes Gamboa, and their 2019 second round draft pick (because the Dodgers aren’t allowed to slap a QO on Manny).

       About Mike Trout … as the Phillies long wait to acquire MM nears an end (they’ve been targeting him for two years, and will sign him in November), Trout now becomes the next primo target. The Angels are not going to trade him (at least not in the next year). Instead, they’ll try to extend him. The LAA aren’t making the playoffs this season. If they don’t see the postseason in 2019, Arte Moreno will come to the fork in the road. At that point, he has to either sell the farm and/or spend wildly in free agency to make the playoffs in 2020, or think about trading Trout to restock the team/farm system for life after Trout. My guess is the Angels will do the former (go all out to win in 2020) in one last ditch effort to try to convince their future HOF’er to stay in LA.
       In the meantime, the Phillies will be planning on Trout becoming available as a FA after 2020. IMO … (and I know Mike Trout and his wife are back in Millville today … and probably reading Phuture Phillies because … ) I think he sees himself as a Phuture Phillie. John Middleton sees the day coming when this team is featuring Trout, Machado, and Hoskins in the 2-3-4 spots in the lineup, and selling out every game again.

       https://twitter.com/AllStarGame/status/1019354576238112769

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       1. I’m a big believer that things happen for a reason. The Phillies made a strong offer for MM. Adonis Medina is a stud pitching prospect. He was initially on my “Will Not Trade For A Rental” list (as was Ortiz). I’ve read some reports that some scouts like Medina better than Sixto Sanchez. Maybe he ends up fixture in the Phillies rotation for the next decade … or … maybe he helps bring back a different star player with multi years of team control.

          Along the same lines I just saw Phillies righty Adonis Medina and double checked with another scout that saw him recently and we agreed: he’s 21 and if he isn’t better than Casey Mize he’s really close. https://t.co/gKlNJo3kau

          — Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 5, 2018

          Filthy cold Medina!
          Look at this pitch from #Phillies No. 2 prospect Adonis Medina in today's #FuturesGame. https://t.co/MRwrPasLmV pic.twitter.com/MayBJPN3Pn

          — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 16, 2018

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          1. Yusnel Diaz and Dustin May are reportedly both in the top 50 of Baseball America’s midseason update. So the Dodgers gave up 2 top 50 prospects for Machado. Not to mention that Adonis Medina is NOT in the top 50 update, only Sixto is in the top 50.

             Plain and simple, the Dodgers outbidded the Phillies and gave the Orioles the prospects that they wanted.

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             1. fwiw, this tweet suggests that the Phils came in third

                The Milwaukee #Brewers' offer was considered the second-strongest by #Orioles officials before opting for #Dodgers package for Manny Machado.

                — Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 18, 2018

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          2. I thought Medina’s stuff looked elite at the game. His command was poor. The homer that he gave up was on a fastball that was middle middle. But the stuff was electric.

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             1. Agree on Medina. His stuff is electric. I saw him throw three pitches (FB, SL, CH). The 94-96 FB was plus (for me). The CH was plus-plus (for me). The SL has wicked movement, but he couldn’t throw it for strikes. I saw the tweet you posted earlier in this thread. The scout claimed Medina threw a CB in the Futures Game, but I didn’t notice it. I’d take Medina over Dustin May or either of the two pitchers (Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz) the Brewers were reportedly offering.

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             2. I’m frequent in LWD because of Sixto and Medina. I’ve seen Medina transformed his CB to SL, thus, increasing his swing and miss. Medina’s FB-SL-CU can be plus and his command is also good (but needs refinement). I think where Medina is struggling is the pitch sequence especially incorporating the SL since Medina started to use his SL only last year in LWD (he prefers the CB over SL in WIL and GCL).

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                1. it was only one inning, but i saw poor command. the home run ball was absolutely middle-middle. horrible location. his slider (i guess that is what it was), had crazy movement, but 2 or 3 times wasn’t close to a strike. not a competitive pitch. Those pitches are why he has a high era with his electric stuff. can’t miss in the middle of the plate.

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                2. @v1 – the feedback I’m i got from Medina’s performance in Future is that he is relying heavily on SL as the out pitch which eventually hurt him. Some said that Medina showed really good stuff despite of the stat line.

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          3. Can you provide a link for the scouts liking him better than Sanchez, never heard anyone say this before. Closest i’ve heard to this is if he was draft eligible, he would have went in the top 3 picks.

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             1. Not positive, but I believe it was Keith Law who said he’s talked to a couple/few scouts who actually like Medina over Sanchez. I read it probably a few months ago. Don’t remember if it was in a chat or in a Medina scouting report.

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                1. BTW wasn’t trying to call you a liar or anything like that, I’ve just never heard anyone say that they prefer Medina over Sixto.

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                2. Eric D … Sometimes I even surprise myself. I did some searching, and was able to find the Keith Law scouting report. He was in Lakewood to scout the Blue Claws last summer. He fawned all over the pitching staff there. Here is the link: http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7430
                   If you’re not an Insider, I’ll post the entire scouting report (from July 20, 2017) …

                   The Philadelphia Phillies’ 18-year-old right-hander, Sixto Sanchez, has one of the best fastballs of any starter in the minors, perhaps the best, with his three pitches last Wednesday coming in at 99, 100 and 99 mph — easy velocity with a little life to the pitch as well. He threw 62 pitches over six innings, 46 of them fastballs and six of those 100 or 101 mph. He thoroughly overpowered the Rome Braves’ hitters twice through the order before they started to time his fastball more the third time through, showing the weakness of his secondary stuff and his present fastball command.

                   Sanchez is a surprising guy to hit triple digits with so little effort, as he’s about 5-foot-10, 175 pounds or so and not overly muscular but blessed with a lightning-quick arm. His is some of the easiest velocity I have ever seen, comparable to that of Cincinnati right-hander Hunter Greene (the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft). Although Sanchez doesn’t really command the pitch, he was around the plate enough his whole outing Wednesday. His changeup was his best second pitch, solid average right now, mostly 88-89 mph with some late downward action, though he can overthrow it and turn it into a batting practice fastball. He doesn’t have a present average breaking ball; he’s throwing a curveball-ish sort of thing at 81-85 mph that’s a grade-40 pitch at the low end of the range, but it creeps up when he throws it harder, and it starts to take on slider characteristics.

                   Sanchez does everything so easy and clean that I don’t see any physical or mechanical reason he can’t start, but he’s going to need to improve that offspeed stuff to do that. An 80 fastball, 60 change, 50 breaking ball with 50 command is at least a No. 2 starter, but that’s projecting a lot of improvement on the last three points. I have had scouts say they think he’s a closer, and that’s certainly possible, but I’d call it an absolute worst-case scenario. If you want to be the optimist here, bear in mind that Noah Syndergaard was also up to 99 mph with no breaking ball to speak of when Toronto drafted him at age 18 out of a Dallas area high school, and he has worked out OK. Sanchez isn’t built like Thor but has a similarly easy, clean arm swing and tremendous arm speed, so perhaps there’s a future plus-slider in there that no one can see just yet.

                   Lakewood’s rotation is just ridiculous this year, and that’s without JoJo Romero, who was recently promoted to high-A after dominating the Sally League. I know a few scouts who rate Adonis Medina over Sanchez in the Phillies’ system because Medina has the present secondary stuff that Sixto lacks. I saw Medina on June 30 against Hagerstown, and the right-hander was throwing 91-96 mph with a four-pitch mix, including a hard-action changeup at 84-87 mph that was better when he eased up on the pitch, an above-average curveball at 76-79 mph and an average slider at 79-82 mph. (That’s assuming those two were distinct pitches, which they looked like out of his hand.) Like Sanchez, Medina gets his velocity without much effort, but his delivery isn’t as pristine — he flies open at release too often — and hitters were on his fastball, which is hard but straight. I’d rank him behind Sixto, but both have above-average starter ceilings.

                   Both those guys were outpitched by lefty Nick Fanti, from my hometown of Smithtown, New York (although Fanti went to Hauppauge High School, a terrible decision on his part). Fanti threw a no-hitter this week in Lakewood’s game against the Yanks’ low-A affiliate Charleston — the second time Fanti was involved in a no-hitter this year. Fanti is 88-91 mph, but hitters don’t see the pitch well, and he worked heavily off the fastball all day, showing a potential average curve and changeup but using them to change speeds and keep hitters from timing him. I worry a bit about the lack of a clear out pitch here, but the awkward swings he got are promising, and it isn’t as if hitters adjusted the third time through the order. He could be a back-end starter, especially if there’s a little more velocity in here and he can pitch with that deception at something like 90-93 mph.

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                3. BTW … when Law compares Sixto’s FB with Hunter Greene’s, that’s saying something. I don’t know if you watched the Futures Game on Sunday, but Greene was throwing gas (up to 103 MPH) and he made it look easy. He had no secondary pitches and hitters were sitting on his FB, but man … I could see him throwing 105 MPH by the time he’s 22 YO.

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       2. @Hinkie – i’m not sure if Yusniel Diaz is the better prospect than Medina (who ranks higher in most rankings), but the Phillies package offers more upside. Dustin May profile is similar to Drew Anderson, only 3 years younger.

          BAL has been very firm on 2 controllable arms in exchange for Machado so they probably enamored with Yusniel Diaz to pull the trigger since Dustin May is about 3 years away.

          On Machado’s FA – we agree on this since the beginning. Machado will test the market to get the maximum $$. Machado was raised by his mom and uncle in MIA and said to prefer close family ties. I don’t think the glamorous Hollywood life will trap him. I see Machado as an East Coast guy so NYY and PHI has a legit chance to snatch him away from LAD.

          On Trout and LAA/Moreno – we agree here as well.

          On Middleton – the signing of Arrieta and Santana indicated that the Phillies are back as big league players. The heavy investment in scouting, LA facilities, 2 DSL and GCL teams and analytics infrastructure are subtle moves of preparing for contention that fans don’t see and appreciate.

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    2. Exhibit A of why the Orioles are the Orioles. And to our disadvantage and disappointment.

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    3. May and Robinson both drafted in 2016, rounds 3 and 6. Phils drafted Stobbe and Martinelli earlier in those rounds.

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55. 3up, ok, we saved our prospects and it is a very reasonable position to take. If Machado does not come here, where do we go next? I don’t want Harper, and I don’t see a Plan B to Machado that isn’t a serious drop. I am still looking for our Star player.

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    1. Happ and Donaldson – together it will take a lot less than getting Machado alone. Then we need to find a way to get Britton.

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    2. Do Not Sweat Manny Machado.
       Listen … up until a week ago, nobody was envisioning MacKlentak realistically trading for him. Now, fans are freaking out/despondent over the fact that he’s on his way to LA. The plan has always been to sign him as a FA this winter. Nothing has changed.
       I’ll say it again … there is no way Machado is not hitting free agency after this season. The Phillies have been game planning for him for at least two years now. Machado to the Phillies makes all kinds of sense because:
       1. There is no team that needs him more (both on the field and as the star player to fill their stadium).
       2. Middleton wants to win, and wants to spend. He’s not going to be outbid.
       3. Machado is going to sign with the team who offers him the most money.
       4. The Phillies have mad payroll space !

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       1. @hinkie – looks like we are in the minority who always looks at the positive side of things.

          My buddy is a great philly sports guy but we are mostly on opposite sides of an argument despite supporting the same (Philly) teams and we wondered why one time. My buddy keeps telling me that he is just being “realistic” (you will probably here this word being said by a lot of people to support their argument) but we soon find out that there are 3-sides of reality. Your side, the opposite side and the “real reality”. Your side and the opposite side are self explanatory. The “real reality” is the one who is supported by facts and not by mere opinion.

          Since my buddy is on the pessimistic/glass half empty vs me who is optimist/glass half full person so we never agree unless it is already after the fact kind of thing.

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       2. Yeah, I’d sure say the Phillies have as good of chance to sign him long-term as anyone else and we could look at the team three years from now and thank God we didn’t give up some of those prospects to rent him for two and a half months.

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    3. Matt, I think often times we get fixated on specific players and lose site of the reason we want those players to come. For 2018, the Phillies are a fringe playoff team. Adding Machado probably would have made them the NL East front-runner but they still would not have been better than the Cubs, Brewers, and maybe the Dodgers. They certainly wouldn’t be better than the AL team going to the WS…

       After the season, I expect the team will make a serious push to sign Machado long-term and I don’t think that not getting him via trade in 2018 has any impact on that one way or the other…

       IF Machado chooses to go elsewhere for 2019 the Phillies are still sitting on massive payroll $$$ and a top-10 farm system that they can use to upgrade the roster in multiple positions. There may not be a single player who would be as good as Machado but they can add multiple players both via FA and trade that can vastly improve the team for 2019 and beyond.

       My outlook for 2018 was always that this was the year to see what they had so they hit the 2019 off-season with a good understanding of where they are lacking and they need to continue to figure that out. That’s why am/was not a fan of either the Santana signing or getting Arietta. At least both were signed to short-term deals.

       The fact that they are battling for 1st place in the NL East in 2018 is a bonus. They got a little lucky in that regard because the Nats have been a hot mess for much of the season due to injury and a poor performance from Harper.

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56. i hate the fact that insiders made it sound like he was coming here, and it turned out not to be. but im actually encouraged that they made a strong offer, but were not baited into an overpay.

    with Machado, they had other holes, and they really havent had an injury of major significance to this point, which is likely to change in the second half- they can make some moves to improve and contend and still be in a great position for the future.

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57. The Machado saga is finally over.

    I think the Phillies should target Eduardo Escobar + Zach Duke from the Twins.

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58. The whole “I don’t see us winning a WS this year bc team A or B is better than us”. Do we not remember 2008? We weren’t the best team and the Rays weren’t the best team either . . . yet who made the WS? Or lets go to 2010-2012, we were arguably the best team in baseball and never reached the WS in any of those years. You can’t say that Machado doesn’t get us to the WS, just like you can’t say he would. However you can say he would increase our chances exponentially esp replacing the next to zero production we have received from SS.

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    1. The difference between the 08 team and this team is that the 08 team made the playoffs the year before. The framework was there. If the 08 team wasn’t the best team in the NL they were pretty darn close.

       I concede the supposed best team in baseball that season was the Red Sox and they had a melt down.

       I still don’t know how anyone can say Manny is a slam dunk to come here in the off season when all the signals he’s been putting out there have him as a Yankee.

       So at the end of the day you can have all the free agent foresight you want. You can have ties to a player and you can be flush with the cash but you better have a plan B & C.

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    2. Eric, I would disagree that the Phillies weren’t the best team in 2008. They didn’t have the best overall record in 08 but they finished with the 2nd best record in the NL and were extremely hot to end the season. The Rays also ended with 97 wins so they were also a very good team that year..

       I would equate this team more with the version from 2007 that got swept in the LDS and was a year away…

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    3. Eric, I would also add that much of the criticism given to the Phillies and Amaro post 2012 was that they did trade away the farm system to chase those WS banners and we then saw what followed.

       I assume you are not advocating for a return to that approach now…

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       1. I’m fine with not going on in on Machado but I also believe that it hurts our chances of signing him in the off season.

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59. 3up, a very good post. I had that exact position before getting caught up in the “we may actually get him!” Of the past few days. I am glad we did not overpay, and still want reinfircements because making the Playoffs this year is a real positive for the players. I am not sold on Klentak and hope he makes me a believer.

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60. By the way, since all we do aside from talking about Manny Machado is talk about Sixto Sanchez (and little wonder why we do that), what IS going on with Sixto right now physically? Does anyone know?

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    1. It is a bit disconcerting about Sixto’s condition and the silence surrounding it..
       But until any news is forthcoming that they are planning on sending him to see Dr Andrews, I am being optimistic that he will start to get some innings in soon.

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       1. When he showed up with an inflamed elbow, I predicted (the best case scenario) was Sixto doesn’t throw another pitch this season. Hopefully, he gets PRP treatment (it worked for Aaron Nola), and comes back healthy and ready to go in Reading next spring.
          I hope I’m wrong, and all he needed was to rest the elbow, and he’s throwing again this month (or maybe next month), but I doubt it.

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          1. Yes….PRP would be the ideal scenario, better than TJ for sure I would think.
             Then again…nothing is guaranteed.
             On the other hand, Garret Richards chose stem-cell last year and its shelf life came a little sooner than anticipated, so now time for TJ.
             Some of the medical experts’ have had their doubts about the efficacy of stem cell injections and of related treatments using platelet rich plasma….this can lead the average fan , like me, to overestimate the prospects of success.
             And then Masa Tanaka has been overall pretty good from his own PRP program….just a few rest periods last season.

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    2. huge question that has been ignored this week.

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61. Did not know Jesus Aguliar was left unprotected by Cleveland when they signed EE and the Brewers scooped him up. What a find….

    Winkleman is reporting Listi is getting a start at 3B tonight his first ever there…

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62. Hearing some Moustakas rumors. Can’t say I seem to understand why they would be interested. Is it because hes somewhat famous and had some good years? Right now hes not an upgrade over Franco.

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    1. I wonder if Duffy comes along with him
       Duffy has turned his season around in his last seven starts, five have been outstanding…..the two clunkers…Astros and Indians…..can understand that.

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63. Trout On Playoffs:
    https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/mike-trout-angels-not-reaching-postseason-has-been-frustrating-522162.html

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64. Snag on the Dodgers end of the Manny deal? Prospects medicals? Missanelli referred to a report from a NY reporter?

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    1. Perhaps the pitcher May may have some questionables.
       Diaz looked darn healthy on Sunday.
       And Robinson played last night.
       If they are still the three involved in that trade with the Os.

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       1. The O’s are notorious for finding things in the medical reports they don’t like…

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          1. They are, but this is a good deal for the Orioles. They want this deal to go through.

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             1. Why? Other than Diaz (whose ranked lower than Medina in the top 100) what is outstanding in Baltimore’s eyes? The quantity?

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                1. Diaz is ranked in the top 50 of baseball america’s midseason update, Medina is not.

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          2. Well May was scheduled to pitch last night but was scratched…I suppose due to the pending trade.
             But like you say…the Os organization have had some issues with those medicals in the past.

             Did Manny do any selfies with Nola last night?

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             1. Just looking at numbers and velo. Why is May a great prospect. ?? I Would have taken santana over him.

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                1. He is a 3/4 according to most scouts.
                   He topped out in the mid 90s in HS but now is in the lower 90s as a pro
                   He started very poor this season…..then picked it up in June….and does get swing and misses
                   But agree does not seem like a pitcher that a value like Manny should get in a return……..Medina has a higher ceiling IMO.

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                2. roccom/romus – Dustin May is like our old friend Jonathan Pettibone. Drew Anderson is another comparison. May’s CU is ahead of Anderson, but Anderson FB-CB is better than May’s.

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    2. or just buyer’s remorse. BAL is hoping that Klentak will call their bluff and include Sixto.

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       1. i should say seller’s remorse.

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65. Jayson Stark believes Haseley was in the Philles package for Manny. O’s must have thought better about Diaz.

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66. Hey first time poster, long time lurker lol. But have a question about Luis Garcia, the IFA last year. Saw he’s hitting well at GCL and BA just ranked him 10th on our prospect list. Is he that good already? Exciting to see a big name signing perform well. And what about Victor Santos? Pretty good K/B ratio but I know they’re both very young.

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    1. BA values physical projection and defensive positions very highly so prospects with loud tools and still young will rank high in BA. I’m surprised that Luis Garcia is ahead of Gamboa, but at SSS, he is as good as advertised (see scouting report in MLB.com) if not better.

       Victor Santos will be a prospect to watch. He’s a $150K signee and on a small side. You can check some videos of Victor Santos taken by BaseballBetsy and you will easily notice the good mechanics and clean delivery. See below.

       “Santos is a strong-bodied teenage righty with a bit of a longer arm action and presently average stuff for which he has advanced feel. He sits 90-93 with arm-side run and he locates it to his glove side, often running it back onto that corner of the plate. Santos doesn’t have much room on his frame, but at just 17, he’s still likely to get stronger as he matures, and there may be more stuff in here anyway.”

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       1. Kuko……I am not at all surprised that Garcia is ranked higher than Gamboa.
          Gamboa has not yet proved that he has a hit tool more than 45FV, which profiles
          as Freddy Galvis to a utility player long term in the majors.
          His peripherals are poor for a ‘ singles/doubles’ middle infielder…20% K rate….9% BB rate in 1055PAs.
          Garcia , otoh, was given such a high bonus based on better hitting mechanics and higher ceiling, and apparently the scouts were spot on so far.

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          1. @romus – Gamboa and Luis Garcia profiles are the same almost to the dot. I’m sure that Luis Garcia hitting out of the gate affects somebody’s perception but it is still SSS. I gave slight edge to Gamboa for now since I’ve seen him longer than Luis Garcia and Gamboa projection is consistent with his scouting reports.

             If Luis Garcia can sustain his hot start, then maybe I’ll jump him over Gamboa next year.

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             1. Kuko…that is true for tools ratings at the time of their signings, Gamboa actually had a higher hit tool….but Garcia did have the higher class ranking.
                And a million and half signing bonus more ($2.5M vs .900K) would indicate the Phillies valued his signing with them.

                Garcia’:
                Ranked 8th International 2017 class..MLB.com
                Hit: 50 | Power: 35 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60
                Garcia is rarely the biggest prospect on the field, but his skill set and potential are immense.
                Gamboa:
                Ranked 15th in the 2014 international class
                Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 65 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60
                Standing 5-foot-11 and weighing 158 pounds, Gamboa is an athletic shortstop with a solid skill set and an above-average run tool. He’s a switch-hitter without much power, and there is a belief that he is a better hitter from the right side of the plate. That said, Gamboa has made improvements from the left side and has made a name for himself as a contact hitter.

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          2. KuKo……you ranked the five Latin middle infielders that were signed within the last three years like this:
             7. Gamboa…17. Guzman….18. (Brayan)Gonzalez…..19. Luis Garcia…21. Brito

             I differ in ranking the five Latin middle infielders in preference.
             1. Luis Garcia….2. Gonzalez…..3.Guzman……4. Gamboa….5 Brito

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             1. @romus – Luis Garcia is only 16/17, the only reason he ranks lower in my rankings is because of the SSS. I need to see the J2 signing at least for a season to make a more accurate ranking.

                Hinkie ranks Castillo at #11, mine is #20. I need to see Castillo first before i but the hype about the arm.

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             2. I am looking at the trade, diaz isn’t a base stealer. doesn’t hit for much power. is 22 going into next season. Has great obp. I just don’t get the love to take him for machado, with a lot of lower rated prospect. I really believe we never offered them Haseley and medina. cause if we did. Baltimore would be nuts to turn that down. but that’s just me.

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67. ok, now im back to being a little disappointed seeing what the final prospect haul was for the O’s.

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    1. I know me too. The O’s must have realit locked Diaz because the prospects the Phillies were dangling seems a better overall package. Oh well.

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       1. though looking further, again have to give credit to the Dodgers for their drafting- a 7th, 8th, and 14th round pick dealt with Diaz. last years 8th rounder rylan bannon was supposed to be a glove first third baseman with fringe power, but he’s got 20 homers and 59 walks in high A. 2016 14th round pick Dean Kremer has 125k in 86 innings and had just been promoted to AA already.

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68. I don’t know that the rumored Phils deal is accurate, but if it is, Phils offer was definitely better. O’s got Diaz and meh.

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    1. BAL basically deal Machado for Yusniel Diaz. BAL just seem to care about the headliner rather than the overall package. If I have a beef against Klentak, it’s the hesitation to trade Eflin or delos Santos. I’m not sure if BAL values Eflin or delos Santos over Yusniel Diaz, but if it does, this is a colossal misjudgment on Klentak’s part.

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    2. If they offered Haseley, I doubt they offered Ortiz. The reported notion that the O’s were looking for a couple of young controllable arms was bogus. Theirs simply continues to be an inept front office. The Phillies offer was 3rd in their estimation? I’d rather deal with trade partners who can at least evaluate talent.

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       1. BAL’s inability to evaluate talent is a less of a concern for me. Now with hindsight of knowing what BAL is looking for, the trade package that BAL wants will not even cause a big dent in the farm.

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          1. The O’s are on pace to have the worst season of any MLB team since the inaugural 1962 METS who lost 120 games. Without Machado, they are even weaker. If they blow past the Mets, the next milestone is the 1898 Cleveland Spiders, who had the worst record in MLB history.

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69. Originally, I was hoping Nola would pitch Fri night vs SD. Upon further thought, it is smart of Kapler/Kranitz to have a fresh Nola, Eflin and Arrieta going against LAD next week (Mon-Tue-Wed) instead.

    On another topic, Moniak singled tonight but way more encouraging, walked 3x. While I am certainly disappointed in his early struggles thus far, he’s 20. I agree with the above post that a repeat of high-A next season (at least to start) is reasonable. Then we’ll see if he can finish 2019 in Reading. It’s not like we have a system overflowing with blue chip outfielders. The kid just needs to stay healthy, get stronger, and play baseball.

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70. #orioles chose LAD cause really liked Diaz and liked overall quality of other players in the package. Gave edge over Brewers and Phillies. Diaz was best player offered by anyone. "He was the key to the trade," Duquette said

    — Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) July 19, 2018

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    1. I pasted a report above indicating that we actually came in third behind the Brewers. I know that is hard for us to believe, but we all over value our own prospects. The reality is, our prospects are not as good as we think they are.

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       1. Most people overvalue what they have, it doesn’t only apply for Phillies fans and the prospects. The Machado trade is all about what BAL values the most — which is Yusniel Diaz. Duquette said it, they thinks that Diaz is the best player offered so it is all about what they think is best for them whether they are correct or not. If BAL doesn’t value Medina and others are that much, that’s their assessment. GMs value prospects and players differently.

          If it is true that BAL likes Eflin and delos Santos over Yusniel Diaz, then Eflin/delos Santos and some non-Top 30 prospects might get Machado regardless what the so-called national outlets will say.

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          1. Interesting timing, Keith Law just released his Top 50 and a few names of note:
             21. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
             48. JoJo Romero, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
             49. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Baltimore Orioles

             So to Keith, JoJo is a better prospect than Yusniel. I doubt they wouldn’t trade JoJo for Machado. So obviously Baltimore disagrees with that assessment.

             Sixto’s writeup:

             Sanchez is Hunter Greene’s doppelganger in many ways: He’s very young, throws up to 100 mph as a starter with relative ease, and is in search of consistent, above-average secondary pitches. He has better present control than Greene does, and his fastball plays a little better in the zone. He’s only a year older than Greene, which isn’t really that important for pitchers like these two, but he is quite a bit smaller, just shy of 6 feet and easily under 200 pounds.

             Even with those caveats, he’s a high-ceiling prospect who could be a top-of-the-rotation type or a high-leverage reliever … but he has been on the shelf since June 3 because of inflammation in his right elbow and has yet to make a rehab appearance. There’s always the chance the injury is more serious, and even if it isn’t, it probably will cost him 50 or so innings that he needed developmentally to work on his offspeed stuff.

             JoJo’s writeup:

             Romero has spent the year with Double-A Reading, an unusually homer-friendly park for the Eastern League, and has pitched and performed better as the season has gone along, hitting 97 in at least one recent start and mixing in two- and four-seamers as well as an above-average changeup and power curveball.

             He’s at least a fourth starter, probably a three, and I wonder if he needs the challenge of better competition to pitch more consistently with his best stuff.

             Full report: http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/24130683/keith-law-midseason-top-50-prospects-update

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             1. Thanks for sharing. So JoJo is the #2 Phillies prospect for Keith Law and the better pitching prospect than Medina — very interesting. I wonder if the 2018 stats affect Medina’s ranking. The long ball really hurts Medina this year.

                Before the Hamels trade, Nick Williams is a darling in the national rankings. Williams is statistically better than Yusniel Diaz, both reached AA at the age of 21.

                BAL has 3 minor league teams who are in the same league as the Phils. They’ve seen the Phillies prospect a lot compared to the LAD prospects. Not sure if this is good or bad for BAL’s prospect evaluation.

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                1. Yusniel Diaz has more walks then strikeouts. That is the most important thing to look at for a prospect IMO. with that filter, Williams was no where close to as good as Diaz.

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                2. The BB% looks like is the only advantage of Diaz over a 21 yo Nick Williams. I never seen Diaz play so I don’t know about his arm and his defensive capabilities at RF and I don’t know if he can play all 3 OF positions.

                   I like BB and OBP too. But I don’t single out that filter alone to assess a prospect like you do.

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                3. Wait, Diaz has an 80 basis point advantage in OB% in AA due to walking in 12.5% of his PAs more than Nick, and you are saying that is a trivial difference? 80 points in ob% is not significant? It is 2 grades difference. Like the difference between a 45 grade hit tool and a 65. It is a MASSIVE difference. Diaz is far far superior than Nick Williams.

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             2. I’ve been a big JoJo fan this past year and recently went to a Reading start where he really was not all that good, including a FB that rarely hit 90. I’m not going to draw any sweeping conclusions, but the prospect I saw doesn’t closely resemble the prospect that’s been described to me. Maybe it was just one “off” start – who knows?

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                1. If it was a game before May 20th, then you probably saw him at his worse.
                   His first 5/6 starts were very unremarkable, especially when the weather was lousy.

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71. I’m not seeing or hearing Castellanos’ name mentioned among any Phillies trade pursuits. But he’s a guy I’d go after. He would cost a significant package. Otherwise, Escobar and Britton are rentals and should come at a lesser prospect cost. Moustakas doesn’t pose as much of an upgrade over Franco, who I hope gets sold high for a reliever, like Kirby Yates of SD. I’d rather have Escobar at 3b, or a healthy Josh Donaldson, another rental. I prefer Happ over Hamels, who my sense is won’t be returning here since the fan appeal/sentimental aspect would be lost on this current regime – as it should be.

    GO PHILLIES!

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72. MLB has us as favorites to acquire Whit Merrifield, super U guy from KC. He would cost us a nice package but is under control thru 2022. He’s my top target on the trade deadline market. Steals bases, gap power, high OBP, can play anywhere except C and SS.

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    1. Maybe Merrifield will also come with Moustakas,,,,,Duffy also would be ideal, but his addition to the trade would throw Matt K’s return package to KC out of whack, and I am not sure he could navigate thru it.

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       1. Merrifield is a nice player but we need either RF or SS…

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          1. Castellanos for RF. Escobar for SS as a stop gap until the off season.

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       2. Do you think Moustakas is an upgrade at 3b?

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73. I would offer the Royals the following: Crawford, Quinn, Kilome, and Romero.

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    1. For Merrifield.

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       1. even if we didnt already have two second basemen, that seems like way more than you’d want to give up. He’s a second basemen who can play some outfield.

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          1. 3b too.

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             1. 30 innings 2 years ago.

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    2. what?? no way. that package is closer to a Machado package, not a poor mans Ben Zobrist. I like Merrifield as a ball player and I know he is under control, but that trade is a nightmare, way too much.

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74. The SP, May, was supposed to be part of the Dodgers package for Machado. He wasn’t. The package was not nearly as good as the Phils whether it was Haseley or Ortiz in it. Baltimore better hope Diaz is a Superstar because they bungled this. Enough of the O’s mismanagement. Klentak needs to step up and add a piece or 2 now and not wait for the 31st. Escobar from the Twins, Merrifield, Castellanos, and AA can go to LHV.

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    1. Happ and Donaldson are two others that could be on their radar.

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    2. Here is the Dilemma on Castellanos if you get him I think you have to put AA in the deal plus other pieces of course and then you have to live with an unhappy Nicky Dubs because Castellanos is going to play every day.

       Same deal with Escobar if you get him you now disrupt Kingery in some way.

       Klentak has his work cut out for him that’s for sure.

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       1. DMAR, the Phillies have some difficult decisions to make but I would take Nick Williams over Altherr at this point. The Phillies also have some 40 man decisions coming up so we should trade some of the “bubble players” for rentals or an established player.

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          1. the bubble players don’t have a lot of trade value unless it’s for IFA $$. They are either: a) throw in in a trade; b) traded for cash, PTBNL; or c) traded for some low minors lottery prospects.

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75. Maybe I am in the minority here, but I don’t want to make a trade just to make a trade. I like Escobar, I like Merrifield, if the price is right. I’m not going and giving a top 50 prospect for either guy right now. Merrifield could hypothetically play all over but realistically hes a 2b. Also don’t understand any Hamels/Happ love. Pitching is not a weakness aside from the bullpen. I’d love Iglesias, that’s about it. We are way ahead of schedule, in first place, and playing well. If the price is not right, just let this team play the season as is and see how they respond. I’m not trying to give up JoJo or anyone for a piece that may help but not significantly. Merrifield doesn’t make them WS contenders.

    My biggest fear is that the FO Has “we didn’t get machado so now we have to do SOMETHING” attitude. I’m willing to part with guys like Kilome, Irvin, maybe Quinn, but I don’t want to hear Medina, Romero, Ortiz…any of those names mentioned in trades for non premier talent.

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    1. My biggest fear is that the FO Has “we didn’t get machado so now we have to do SOMETHING” attitude.

       I don’t think they did otherwise they would’ve been offering crazy packages for Machado.

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    2. 1) “don’t want to make a trade just to make a trade” – most agree with this so you are in the majority.

       2) “not going and giving a top 50 prospect for Merrifield and Escober” – Top 20, probably yes. Most prospects beyond Top 50 are either org fillers and scrubs. Klentak is trading for a MLB player, not some IFA $$.

       3) “Pitching is not a weakness aside from the bullpen” – the bullpen might turn out fine with Neshek and Neris staying at LHV. SPs can be a problem in the playoffs. Arrieta gets the benefit of the doubt, other than him, Nola is the only reliable starter. Hamels (or Happ) will not come to Phils as the ace. He will be #3 and Hamels provides that playoff experience. It is still an adventure to see Pivetta, Vinny and Eflin pitch in the mound.

       4) As we learned from the BAL-Machado trade, it’s not about how Klentak value his prospects. It’s about how the selling GMs value what the Phillies have in the farm. If a GM bought into the power potential of Hall and Listi or the breakout of Will Stewart, Klentak can get good player in return from them.

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       1. Yeah I meant top 50 overall (Law just ranked Romero in the top 50)

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76. Guys, I don’t overpay for anyone. I didn’t want to overpay for Machado as much as I wanted him. However, there is a good deal of value in the FO acknowledging the play of the team and rewarding the Manager and the players, not to mention the fans, with reinforcements to make this Playoff run. Regardless of whether they are in contention a year early or not. I have seen too many times where a team did nothing at the deadline and then fell flat afterwards. There is an adrenaline rush for the team when players are added, and the opposite when the team does nothing. So, I want a bat and a piece for the BP.

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    1. Let’s not overpay and as has been posted here several times lately, let’s also not overvalue our young talent. It doesn’t seem like any GMs are.

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77. Brad hand just got traded to the Indians. They needed him desperately, and I don’t know what they gave up, but this furthers my belief that Klentak needs to act now. There is no need to wait until the 31st.

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    1. Matt, agree with you in the top prospect of the Dodgers and Indians just were traded so far. The Phillies need to step up and offer a top prospect if they want a controllable bat and LH reliever. Otherwise, we will end up with rental players only by the trade deadline. Time to step up Matt!

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78. Indians #1 Prospect, a C named Mejia is part of the deal.

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79. Interesting trade, #15 prospect for 2 relievers one being Hand.

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    1. Wow, Indians certainly paid up.

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       1. This is the trap teams in the playoff hunt fall into. Logic would say the Indians have no shot on paper at beating the Sox Yankees or Astros and everyone knows they have no might when it comes to payroll to sign players.

          Only thing that is a pretty sure bet for them is that they win the division thus avoiding the WC.

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80. I’d prefer to shop in the rental aisle right now. Then, in the offseason, I’d look to put the finishing touches on this rebuild (through free agency [MM and LHP’ing]. That said, if I were Klentak, I would target Zach Britton as my LHRP. His velo and his sinker are back. Jake Diekman would be option B. I would also target Eduardo Escobar as a bat I could play on the left side of the infield. I like the fact that he is switch hitter. Asdrúbal Cabrera (another switch hitter) would be my backup plan.
    The rentals shouldn’t cost the Phillies any top prospects. And this team has the depth in their farm to put together competitive offers for these guys.

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    1. Hinkie…agree.
       I would kick the tires with the Os on Britton.
       He would not be a terribly high cost, being the rental as he is and coming off the injury.

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       1. Romus, the bidding will get high on Zach Britton as he is an established closer with a very good track record.

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          1. Well I hope the Os are not looking at a return package in the neighborhood that Manny brought them.
             I would think Brad Hand’s return value may be more in line.

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             1. 2 months of Zach Britton shouldn’t come close to the price (top prospect Francisco Mejia) for 3.5 years of Brad Hand + 5.5 years of Adam Cimber.

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          2. I think they will revisit their talks with Houston from last year. Britton will wind up there IMO.

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81. Who has the higher ceiling Irvin or JoJo? I saw Irvin a little bit in last nights AAA All Star game. He’s obviously having some success this year but the stuff seemed pretty average to me.

    I saw a lefthanded hitter stay on him pretty good and hit a shot to the left center field gap. He seemed to lack a really good Change up. Curious to hear from others who have seem him live or in person.

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    1. JoJo is the better prospect. Irvin (IMO) could make a good trade chip for a guy like Britton.

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    2. JoJo Romero has the higher ceiling and floor than Irvin, thus, the better prospect but the higher risk.

       I had the chance to watch both in person last year Jojo in LWD and Irvin in REA. Irvin reminds me of a cross between post-surgery Adam Morgan and Leibrandt. Irvin stuff is average in my view but he has the Aaron Nola composure and presence in the mound.

       JoJo doesn’t have the cleanest delivery so he might be more prone to injury than Irvin in the long run. He used a lot of FB-Cutter when I saw him and mix all his pitches well. The FB-Cutter and CU looks at least above average. JoJo’s command last year was lights out, but I think the command still needs refinement.

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       1. Thank you for those thoughts…

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82. From Keith Law’s chat today …

    Hinkie
    You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?
    Keith Law
    Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

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    1. Hinkie…..so he has Medina as the Phillies fourth pitching prospect from what i can tell.
       I think he does like to throw stuff up on the wall and hope some of it sticks.

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       1. Romus … I like the fact that KLaw gives a different point of view. He doesn’t fall in line with the majority’s opinion. I think he’s also the high man on Jhailyn Ortiz. I’m almost certain he made Law’s top 100 preseason list.

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          1. I do give him credit for one thing….he admits when he does miss on a prospect now and then

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             1. Romus … funny you mentioned KLaw owning up to his mistakes (which he does). This also comes from today’s chat:

                Jon
                Do you ever mistakenly say would when you mean “wouldn’t”?
                Keith Law
                I meant to say that Luis Severino wouldn’t be a reliever.

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                1. Yes,
                   ….I even have seen Eric Longenhagen admit his own oversights….one , his prediction of great things for Phillies Dom Brown.

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                2. Speaking of Ortiz:

                   Jack
                   Is Adam Haseley the second best position player prospect that the Phillies have? (Behind Bohm)
                   Keith Law
                   Ortiz. Ortiz might actually be better than Bohm, but Bohm is playing third for now and I’ll give him a nod because he might stay there, while Ortiz is in LF but is going to be a 1b.
                   I really like Muzziotti too. He can really hit, and he can run. Not very disciplined at the plate, but for now, while he can hit everything, it’s OK.

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          2. I normally try understand the rationale on how people make their rankings. In most rankings, I can see the pattern and preferences that’s why I can understand why certain prospect(s) rank higher or lower than the average ranking.

             Keith Law’s ranking is the one I find it hard to look for that “pattern and preference” to the point that I think he is like Ryan Howard at the plate —- hitting the obvious but guessing the rest to see if he can hit one right.

             National I like BA, local i like MattWinks.

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             1. I go with MLB.com…Callis and Mayo …..they work from within the the league and can get pieces of nuggets from team scouts/execs.

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             2. I always liked Matt’s scounting but I always thought his rankings were wonky. I remember him having Grullon ranked 6th one year, and he had Yoel Mecias in the top ten another year when he was coming of of surgery. Mecias was out of the organization by June. I know the system was weaker back then but he really seem to go for the “I was the first guy who was really in on this prospect every one else thought was fringy.”

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    2. I really like Ranger as well. It’s kind of funny that after the Phillies fail in getting Machado and many wonder if they have a good enough farm system, it’s Klaw of all people who makes (me at least) feel better about the system.

       Hinkie – Nick Castellanos? No he’s not a rental and may cost a bit but could be that right handed OFer they need.

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       1. About trading for Castellanos:

          * I think he would cost more than I would want to give up.

          * Castellanos is a nightmare with the glove. If you add him to the worst (?) defensive team in the league, it could be a real clown show.

          * I don’t agree with the premise that the Phillies need a RH OF bat. It’s fine to have 2 LH bats (Odubel/Williams) and 1 RH bat (Hoskins) in the OF.

          * I believe AA isn’t this bad (.174/.294/.309). The law of averages makes me feel like he’ll pick it up some in the second half of the season. If for some reason he doesn’t, I’d wait for Roman Quinn to get healthy (hopefully soon), and use him as a 4th OF’er.

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          1. Good point on AA/Quinn, Hinkie. I’m hopeful that Altherr can have an impact in a quasi-platoon.

             Santana also needs to himself as well. I heard it said that Francona didn’t want Carlos back because he simply isn’t aggressive enough at the plate.

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83. Hinkie, I agree with you and Romus on Britton and I like Escobar as well.

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84. Freddy, Chase and Manny all in town over the next five days. Standing ovations await.

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    1. Romus remember I am only allow 6 post a week for the next year. Jim told me

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       1. rocco…well you better save your best postings for those six entries.
          How about on weekends….unlimited postings?

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          1. rocco … don’t look at it as having just 6 posts per week. Look at the big picture: you’re able to post 312 times through next July.

             Also … maybe Jim meant you can only post 6 times per week as rocco. You should ask if you can post six more time per week as Tim 🙂

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             1. Hinkie, just don’t call him Sybil.

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       2. I hope you use one to boast on Lucas Williams. Romus gave you credit while you were exiled off the ranch

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85. Our offer for Machado (FWIW) was supposedly Medina, Romero and Haseley.

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    1. If that’s true, the Orioles blew it.

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       1. That doesn’t sound right. I would have been pissed if they had made that deal.

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    2. 8mark I cant believe we made that offer. Glad they turned it down. Thats three top prospect. they took one top prospect and a lot of nothing special guys over three guys who will play in the majors.

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       1. rocco…the two pitchers have a chance of being in the majors…one as a mid- rotation guy ceiling and the other Zach Pop , as a closer.

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          1. Romus … here is Keith Law’s breakdown on what the Orioles got from the Dodgers http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/24129382/orioles-get-quantity-no-future-stars-manny-machado-trade

             Yusniel Diaz looks like a solid regular with a chance to be more depending on his ultimate position and power output. He’s a high OBP guy and has generally shown good plate discipline, with a swing that always seemed more geared to contact than power. Diaz’s biggest problem since he signed as a free agent out of Cuba has been staying on the field: He played in only 86 games in 2016, 114 last year, and missed two weeks in April and two more in May this year, the latter for a hip injury. He’s probably not a center fielder in the long run, lacking the speed normally required for the position, and his bat profiles as a regular in a corner if he doesn’t develop more power. He does have some loft in his swing and rotates his hips to get some strength from his lower half, although he glides out over his front side, giving back a little bit of the advantage he might get from his legs.
             Editor’s Picks

             Dean Kremer is the most interesting name in the package. A 14th-round pick in 2016 out of UNLV, he ranks third in minor league baseball this year in strikeouts, mostly working in high-A Rancho Cucamonga, a great hitters’ park, before a promotion this month to Double-A. The athletic right-hander is up to 97 and will throw four pitches, coming from a good three-quarters slot and getting on top of the ball well, with the curveball his one above-average off-speed pitch. He cuts himself off badly in his landing, meaning he has to come way across his body to work to his glove side, a potential hazard both for effectiveness against left-handed batters (not a problem this year) and for long-term arm health. He profiles as a back-end starter or late-inning reliever.

             Outfielder Rylan Bannon has had a big year in Rancho but, as I said above, it’s a great park for hitters (he’s barely hitting on the road), and he’s not young for the level; he has a chance to be a bench piece.

             Zach Pop is a pure reliever who will work in the mid-90s, touching 97 with some sink, and has gone from wild in college to a strike-thrower in pro ball, although his delivery is rough and he’s probably going to be a middle guy if he makes it. Breyvic Valera is a potential utility infielder who has strong contact rates in the upper minors and has played all over the field, probably not bringing enough stick to be a regular anywhere, although he might just make enough contact to be a second-division regular at shortstop.

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             1. Hinkie…thanks. looks like the Os ‘settled’….Diaz’ two hRs in the Futures were probably an adrenaline aberration.
                His minor league metrics indicate a more contact/hit tool guy which is not bad at all and maybe power down the road in a few years.

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86. Only 2 Phillies made BA’s midseason top 100 update: Bohm and Sanchez. Medina is off the list.

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87. I know I posted earlier that I would concentrate on rentals, but Jim Salisbury lists Pittsburgh’s Felipe Vazquez as a guy the Phillies would have interest in. Why not ?
    IMO … he would cost a helluva lot, but he would probably be worth the sky high asking price. He’s one of the truly dominant, shut down closers in the game. The fact that he’s LH, just turned 27 YO this month, and would come with 5 years of team control (after this season) makes him a grand slam get. You team Vazquez with Ser-Ant’ny and look out !!! That would be a dominant LH – RH duo to shut down games. The question is … just how much would he cost ?

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    1. Well he did have a better year last season..value wise… when his last name was Rivero.
       http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2018/04/09/felipe-rivero-name-change-prescilla-vazquez-sister-pirates-closer/stories/201804090160
       ………..but he would be another to consider based on the fact he is controlled.

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    2. As Cleveland has shown, years of control are valuable. You can argue that they gave up more for Hand than the Dodgers did for Machado..

       To get Felipe Vazquez I expect the prospect price would be massive..

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    3. I’ll prefer the band aid approach when it comes to bullpen help — get them when you are close to winning the WS like what CLE and CHC did. Bullpen arms are so fragile that giving up a ton might hurt more than it helps.

       If the Phils will surrender a huge haul of prospects – it should be for an elite MLB talent or a cost-controlled starter or hitter.

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       1. our old friend Ken Giles is an example. HOU acquired him since they are really close to the WS which a hot Ken Giles helped them. But after that, look what Ken Giles is doing.

          There are some LH pen arm available this offseason, just sign for the $$. Also, Pivetta has shown some glimpse of how he looks throwing from the pen. I’m sure Vinny and Kilome will look good too.

          If the Phils want a lefty pen, then try what Ranger can do. Mills have a potential plus CB, he’s another option.

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          1. Kuko, I would offer the Astros a prospect or two, maybe a Taveras/Cozens package, to get Giles back. Giles has burned his bridges in Houston.

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    4. How about Cesar? (I know I know – “Come on, 8mark! You’re always trying to trade CeHe! Stop it.”) ….well, I think we need to redeem his value in a creative way and unclog this roster logjam somehow….and before he’s too old. He’ll be over 30 by the time we’re full swing into our playoff runs.

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       1. There’s no way that the Phillies will trade Cesar when he helped the Phillies get to where they are now. The “trade Cesa”r talk should be left for the offseason.

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          1. You may be right about the timing, Guru. But sentiment can’t factor much into improving a club on the rise.

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             1. 8mark…I think trading Cesar now, the best table-setting lead off hitter the Phillies have, would send a bad message to the rest of the team.
                I could understand if they were in 4th place in the division, but I do not see Matt Klentak ever doing that, to the team or the manager, when they are in a pennant race.

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                1. I don’t care about the message – I care about it being stupid.

                   These trades people propose to make a stretch run that include trading guys like Cesar or Eflin are nuts. Unless you have another young player literally pushing the regular/starter out of the position, you don’t trade your core players during a playoff push – it’s entirely counterproductive.

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       2. There is no roster logjam though. We have the opposite of a logjam.We have holes. Crawford replaces Kingery at SS when he gets off the DL. Kingery isn’t good enough to open a spot for.

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          1. I think they hamstrung Kingery’s development and compromised the lineup by playing him out of position. I’d have rather seen him return to AAA then have what’s going on now. In spite of it all, we are in 1st place. The mixed message was giving him a long term contract ( a commitment to the future) without giving him a suitable role on the roster. Crawford’s injury should be no excuse to mess with one your top young players’ progress.

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             1. I think people are just bending over backwards to make excuses for him being one of the worst hitters in baseball. I’m not saying the position change helped, but I don’t buy that’s making him this bad. He is so far behind CeHe as a player that I can’t see them deliberately making that change while trying to stay competitive.

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                1. Well his last months slash of 272/.292/.348 is an improvement over his earlier April/May line.
                   Still pretty below average on taking walks

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       3. I Am laughing cause if we trade Cesar, 8mark would have nothing to post. its his passion to trade Cesar

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    5. The cost would be enormous. Vazquez has a wipeout slider from the left side. I like Vazquez better than Hand, he’s a legit closer. The cost would start at Sixto for sure.

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       1. Guru … I figured the Pirates would ask for Sixto, too.
          However, Kiley McDaniel has a trade value table up on Fangraphs. It’s a Top 50. Vazquez doesn’t make his top 50. Instead, he was on the list of Controllable Arms:

          Mike Clevinger, RHP, Indians
          Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mariners
          Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers
          Sean Newcomb, LHP, Braves
          Felipe Vazquez, LHP, Pirates

          According to McDaniel, the price for one of these guys has already been set:
          “The Ken Giles deal established the market for controllable elite relievers, and Diaz, Hader, and Vazquez all fit that bill. Newcomb and Clevinger are having breakout years and could work their way onto the list next year if they can keep it up.”

          As everyone remembers, Giles and Jonathan Arauz brought the Phillies back Mark Appel, Vince Velasquez, Tom Eshelman, Harold Arauz, and Brett Oberholtzer. If you buy what McDaniel is selling that would equate to a toolsy former top pitching prospect in the upper levels of the system who status has taken a hit because of less than stellar results (Franklyn Kilome), another former high draft pick arm who has already spent a little time in the majors and has suffered through some injuries (Eflin), a high floor/lower ceiling pitcher (from Fresno State) (Connor Seabold), a lower level arm who is basically just a guy, and not a GUY (Nick Fanti), and a MLB LHP who has spent time as both a starter and a reliever (Adam Morgan) for Vazquez and a low A lottery ticket.

          In a nutshell (according to Kiley McDaniel) … a possible Phillies-Pirates trade would look like this:

          Phillie get: Felipe Vazquez and a lottery ticket
          Pirates get: Franklyn Kilome, Zach Eflin, Connor Seabold, Nick Fanti, and Adam Morgan.

          BTW … Aaron Nola checks in as the 21st most valuable player in baseball on the Fangraphs trade value list (just in front of Christian Yelich, Chris Sale, JT Realmuto, and Jacob de Grom). Here’s why McDaniel lists Nola at #21:

          “Concluding today’s group of players is a pitcher who combines the cheap long-term control of Yelich with the dominance, athleticism, potential playoff impact, and arrows-up trend of deGrom. Nola still hasn’t gotten past 168 innings in his career, and there have been some smaller, nagging issues that have impacted his durability. That said, Nola is the rare young pitcher with both plus stuff and advanced feel who comes with an air of “don’t worry, I’ll figure this out” going back to when he threw in the mid-80s as a high-school senior or made the SEC look silly while at LSU. At the end of this list, James Paxton has one fewer year of control and more demonstrated durability issues, so Nola’s dominance alone, short of a significant injury, will keep him on this list, despite the volatility of young arms.”

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          1. Elfin for him is too much I don’t want to move that arm

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             1. To me that deal is essentially Eflin and a whole lot of nothing for Vasquez. The volatility of relievers, even lefties, no matter how wipe out their slider, gives me pause. But it’s a tough call.

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                1. Not a tough call – it’s a stupid GD trade. It’s waaaaaayyyy too much. Not a close call and, again, the BP isn’t the biggest problem anyway. They need hitters.

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                2. Whoa hold on!! Are you the real Catch 22 or catch22hman?? And are they 2 different people? The tone of that post sounds a bit edgy.

                   JIM!?!?!

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                3. Dude – it’s me. Sometimes my handle comes out as “catch22hman” and sometimes it comes out as Catch 22. It’s me.

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                4. 8mark … That’s obviously not the real catch. It’s either rocco or someone else posing as him.

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          2. thanks Hinkie! I posted earlier about Ken Giles. The Ken Giles should be the benchmark of what should be the trade package and Ken Giles should be the reminder on how volatile pen arms can be.

             I’ll pass on this trade scenario.

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             1. KuKo … I would do definitely do the deal (Eflin, Morgan, Kilome, Seabold, and Fanti for Vazquez). I’ve watched the Phillies BP blow too many games this season. Vazquez is an elite arm. A righty/lefty duo of Ser-Ant’ny/Vazquez would be a dominant closer combo under team control for the next five years.

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                1. And Rocco should like Vasquez a lot since he changed his name also.

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                2. I would pass on that trade. While he hasn’t yet had sustained success, Eflin has become the Phillies 2nd or 3rd best starter. Not gonna give that up for a reliever, even a very good one like Vasquez. Replace Eflin with someone like Neris or Altheer and now we’re talking, but then that return probably isn’t enough for the Pirates.

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          3. Eflin is too much.

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          4. i think that the package that you suggest is way too much.
             1. no point in trading a starting pitcher (especially one who is 24 years old, basically free and has a 3.15 ERA) for a closer. you are just opening one hole to close another.
             2. I agree with Rocco, Eflin is worth more straight up.

             I think that package excluding Eflin might be right, but including Eflin is way too much. won’t happen.

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             1. Disagree. That package w/o Eflin is a non starter for Vazquez. You have to remember not only is Vazquez a proven, elite, LH closer with two plus-plus pitches … he also comes with 5+ years of team control. You saw what the Cubs gave up (Gleyber Torres +) for just 2 months of Aroldis Chapman. We’re talking 5+ years of Vazquez.

                If you want to argue Vazquez isn’t an elite closer, that’s one thing (although, most reasonable baseball people would disagree with you). But … if you accept the fact that he is maybe the second best LH closer (behind Chapman) in MLB on a long term, team friendly contract … then IMO it’s hard to say Eflin, Kilome, and the rest of that package is too much to give up.

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                1. What if you substitute De Los Santos for Eflin? Or is that still not enough?

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                2. Decent starters are worth more than relievers, and Eflin is pitching like a 3. And Eflin is cost controlled until 2023.

                   If you want to argue about selling Eflin high because you don’t believe in him, that’s another story. But the Pirates would be all over that package for Vazquez. Vazquez is having a good year now, but relievers are up and down.

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                3. I guess it comes down to … who do you believe in long term more ? Eflin or Vazquez ? Or … what is easier to find … a good, young MOR starter or (IMO) an elite (2nd best in MLB) LH closer. The Phillies have other Eflin-like arms percolating through the system. They have nothing like Vazquez.

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                4. Hinkie I Am looking at small sample of this kid torres in gcl. was he a high priced sign>??

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                5. Hinkie….”They have nothing like Vazquez.”…..what about Jakob Hernandez? 😉

                   Baseball Betsy’s video collection

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                6. rocco….until Hinkie gets back to you.
                   Here is a video clip of Nic Torres from a few weeks ago from B.Betsy’s collection. He looks a lot bigger than his signing weight of 155 lbs two years ago and appeasr more compact..
                   He was signed as a ss out of the Ven for $665K and does look like he is a hitter.

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                7. My bad. Apologies to jaKe.

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                8. rocco … Torres signed for 650 thousand dollars two classes ago. He’s from Venezuela. So far, so good.

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                9. not hard to argue that. i just did so above. you don’t trade 24 yo starters with 3.15 ERAs and a lot of team control on a cheap contract for a reliever. just don’t do it unless you think Eflin ‘s performance is a mirage and he really sucks and then you are selling high. but if you think the is legit, you don’t trade him straight up.

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                10. @Hinkie – all the players/prospects are expendable so i think the trade is deemed fair. however, cost controlled is not a consideration for me when it comes to a closer. i rather pay a proven primetime closer when the team is ready to win. Most teams build stack of arms in the farm since most of these failed starter arms will be repackaged as bullpen arms. The Phils has a good depth of these power arms that can be converted to pen arms.

                    For Eflin, I mentioned before that if it takes Eflin to tip the BAL-Machado trade in favor of the Phillies, I will trade Eflin with no hesitation.

                    I’m in the opinion that young bullpen arms are very volatile. Better use the assets to acquire a starter or a legit bat.

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             2. Whether you think Eflin plus the rest is too much is debatable. BUT we’ve been told that all these player assets have been accumulated over the past few years for the very purpose of making deals like this. At what point do we stop hoarding prospects (which aren’t even top tier in most cases) and start establishing core longer term pieces.

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                1. Once the trades start making sense and the value surrendered approximates the value received. You don’t just assemble pieces to willy-nilly wheel and deal. That’s how you get two top first round picks for Markelle Fultz. You still need to be judicious in how you use your assets and, so far, they have been.

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                2. That’s the thing – Eflin has the makings of a core longer term piece, and a cost-controlled MOR starter at that. I’m not gonna trade that for a cost-controlled reliever, even a very good one. And it’s still possible that Pivetta and/or Velasquez get moved to the pen.

                   So replace Eflin with De Los Santos in that deal, and maybe I think about it. A couple guys mentioned (Morgan and Fanti) are essentially throw-ins.

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             3. I think we are confusing things a little bit here.

                On the whole, the team, when it makes trades, should be value focused. You should ALWAYS try to get back at least as much or more than what you give up. That’s why this team has improved so much – they made one value trade after the next and, sooner or later, your team almost has to improve. And they have.

                But there are exceptions when you are close to being a championship team and need a piece. The Chapman trade was OF COURSE not for fair value. The value of Torres over X number of years will dwarf the value of 3 months of Aroldis Chapman. But the Cubs needed that piece to win a WS so they intentionally overpaid. It was only a good move in the context of the direct need for what was already the best team in baseball. And this need was further exacerbated by the fact that it was Chicago. They HAD to do everything necessary to try to win.

                But the Phillies are not there yet and should continue to stay the course and make trades where they are receiving more value than they surrender. It’s fine to make an exception here or there if you are giving up an okay sort of prospect – but their best prospects should not be yielded for some minor short term gains.

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                1. @catch – Hinkie’s proposed trade is long term in nature so not comparable to Chapman or Miller trade. Hinkie’s vision of having 2 shut down pen arms in Seranthony and Vazquez for at least 5 years can be beneficial to the success of the Phillies given the cost to acquire Vazquez are players/prospects that can be deemed expandable.

                   I actually agree with what Hinkie is pointing out, although my preference is to focus the the assets in acquiring legit starter and/or bat than a closer. Closer to is the final piece of the puzzle and normally addressed when the team is ready.

                   For the pen arms, my suggested approach is to address this internally by collecting arms and try them in high leverage situations and see who has the stuff to separate themselves from others. So far, we have Seranthony and Arano/Ramos a level lower. The Phils can also try to see how SP arms like Vinny, Kilome, Anderson, McKenzie Mills, Mauricio Llovera, etc. look in the pen since they don’t project as dependable starters long term.

                   The Phillies can already move on from Luis Garcia, Hector Neris, Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter, Zac Curtis.

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                2. It’s incredible how some/many of you are ready to anoint Eflin a TOR starter after a half season (12 starts). Could he be a TOR arm? Yes, he could. Is it likely? IMO, no it’s not likely. Eflin will most likely settle into a MOR starter. It’s the same way many on here who were mistaking Enyel De Los Santos as a Sixto Sanchez type of pitching prospect. I don’t hear much of that now that DLS has been average in his two starts so far.
                   Along the same lines, how many of you have already given up on JP Crawford (you know who you are) after less than 200 MLB AB’s. Apparently, it’s a “What Have You Done For Me Very Recently?” bias around here.

                   Look … having/sharing opinions of players/prospects is what makes baseball/this site fun. Keep your opinions coming (even if they’re wrong 🙂 ).

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                3. KuKo……relievers are not viewed as long term pitching assets by GMs.
                   In the history of baseball…only three relievers have received upwards of 5 year contracts…..Chapman, Jansen and BJ Ryan.
                   All of the remaining plus relievers have received either three or four year contracts.
                   As opposed to the majority TOR starters…who normally start at 5 yrs and work themselves up.

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                4. @Hinkie – couple of observations that I always encounter when discussing players and prospects:

                   1) Overvalue what you have; and
                   2) What have you done lately.

                   I think we are the only ones here that’s pointing out that delos Santos projects like Eflin. Like you said, both delos Santos and Eflin can develop into a TOR, but the likelihood is not that high.

                   Everybody have their own subconscious bias, buy as long as we keep to respect each other’s opinion, it’s a fair game.

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                5. @romus – you probably address that to Hinkie since I agree with you that bullpen arms are not LT in nature that’s why I don’t agree with the trade eventhough I think its a fair trade. I like to focus on utilizing the farm to acquire a starter or a bat than a closer.

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                6. @ Hinkie, I’m not anointing Eflin to be a TOR starter. However, there is still A LOT of value in a #3 starter. #3 starters don’t grow on trees. If you pay a #3 starter in FA, it’ll cost you $15M+ per year. You would not pay any closer $15M per year.

                   And WAR wise, it’s not even a debate. Vazquez has 0.7 WAR. Eflin? 2 WAR. Eflin is on track for 3.5 WAR.

                   Everybody is talking about trading for Chris Archer. Do you know what Chris Archer is right now? A #3 pitcher.

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                7. @Guru – i don’t agree with your analogies. As Hinkie said, it’s a matter of who Klentak value more – Eflin and others or Vazquez. If Klentak thinks that Eflin and others can be replaced by anybody in the farm, then they are expandable. As of now, we don’t have a LH version of Seranthony, who Vazquez can be. At some point, the Phillies need to made a tough decision and determine if Eflin, KIlome, Morgan are part of the future.

                   You did not anoint Eflin as TOR, but you just labeled him #3 — which is still TBD. Pivetta, Vinny and Eflin are still in TBD bucket – they can be #3 but they can also be a pen arm.

                   The $ is also irrelevant. Middleton is clear that $$ is not an issue if they need to do it. Considering the Phillies payroll flexibility, the cue here is acquiring elite talent more than $$.

                   I will not comment on the WAR since you use WAR based on your own definition.

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                8. @ KK, I’m a firm believer that if you can produce at this level (and Eflin has started to do it), you have to keep him. And it’s not like the Phillies have 4 aces, those days are gone. The Phillies will NOT have 4 aces anymore. Eflin is pitching like a 3, that’s a fact. Adonis Medina has the potential to be better than a 3, but the odds of him even being a 3 in the majors is quite small, let alone a TOR. So I have Eflin who’s pitching like a 3 RIGHT NOW vs Medina who could be a 2, but he’s only at Clearwater and scuffling. I’ll keep Eflin.

                   You’re going to realize that not EVERY starter has to be (or can be) elite level. If you keep on swinging for the fences, and giving up the decent players that you have (and producing), you’ll bust on a lot of prospects. And next thing you know, it’s the 90s drafting scheme all over again.

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88. There still seems to be some thought that trading for JAHapp and moving Pivetta or VV to the “Pen is a possibility. What say you about that? I like the idea. He adds a LHP to the Rotation, and I think Pivetta and VV will excel out of the BP, while still not giving up on them as SP going forward.

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    1. It’s going to be an interesting 2nd half for Pivetta and VV. I don’t think they have rotation spots locked down for next season. You have to figure that DLS, Saurez, Irvin are going to be in ST looking for jobs. Pivetta and VV have to perform.

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89. And, I think a guy like Escobar works because they will play Kingery in the Super Utility role that they thought he was going to fill when the season started, and keep Franco at 3B.

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90. Roman Quinn is starting a rehab assignment with CLW. Maybe JimP can give us some inputs on how Quinn looks at the game.

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91. Or they could try and deal for Britton and Jones from Baltimore.

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92. Bovada has Phillies’ odds climbing.
    Better now than Brewwers, D-Backs , Cardinals and Nats.
    https://www.bovada.lv/sports/baseball/mlb/2018-world-series-odds-to-win-201811041300

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    1. Odds Shark has it at 16-1. Hmm, my futures ticket is looking good…

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       1. I should have bet the over in February, but balked.

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          1. i wonder if I am going to lose my under bet on phillies. I still have a chance if kapler is the manager. and Shelton is the gm.

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             1. Hah,
                ….Phillies, Yankees and Mets…most bet over/under teams in February…shows you were all the degenerate sports gamblers live! 🙂

                https://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/02/yankees_mets_phillies_among_best_mlb_overunder_wag.html

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                1. Yeah……in the long run, it can certainly be a losing proposition.
                   And to think MLB and the Commissioner Manfred want to expand and put one of the two next expansion teams in ….Vegas of all places! 🙂
                   I guess they see the NFL and NHL making it there…why not MLB.

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          2. I was looking to bet the over, but I don’t do online gambling and the Supreme Court decision wasn’t in yet so couldn’t bet locally. I knew 77-79 wins was far too low.

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    2. Romus my next six post will be as j. then 6 as tim , I just like to say this to everyone. it was a joke and I guess I pissed off people. Which I really never intended to do. I Really never heard of trolling. believe it or not. So if I crossed the line I am sorry. I just like to have fun, but sometimes I do cross the line.

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       1. rocco…got it.

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93. What will it take to get Britton? Ortiz? Haseley? Medina?
    I was hoping the headliner could be Gamboa but that feels light.

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    1. I think they can and should avoid trading those guys. It might be Del Los Santos and a lower minor leaguer or something like Spencer and Gamboa. Personally, I’d try hard to avoid trading Spencer. He’s still rough around the edges, but his stuff, I believe is extremely good.

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94. Deadline in a nutshell for me:

    Get Happ, move Pivetta to the bullpen (one performance a few weeks ago he did well following a short, bad start). A rental so the cost in prospects should not be prohibitive. Plan B – Hamels if only for his experience.

    Get Britton (though there are about 6 other teams after him) to compliment Seranthony. Also a rental but the cost may be higher than for Happ. Plan B – Vasquez, but only if Pittsburgh accepts a package w/o a SP from the big club. (i.e. DLS instead of Eflin) Could the Pirates use a 3b? Then I would offer Franco and try to scale back on sending prospects.

    Get Merrifield. Many think he’s just a 2b but Kapler would use him all over the field, especially3b and RF. High energy player with a track record. Will cost us but he’d be ours thru 2022 when he turns 33. Moustakas isn’t much of an upgrade if at all. Beltre is too old even for a rental.

    I would hold off on acquiring a RF. Let’s see if either Williams or Altherr (and later Quinn) can pick up the production in the 2nd half.

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95. Tigers place Michael Fulmer on DL with oblique. That takes him off the trading block.

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    1. And Yankees take Clint Frazier out of the game last night for precautionary concussion concerns.
       Rumors have those two the key pieces in a trade between the two teams.

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96. In looking at Minnesota, assuming they become a seller, the absolute prototypical Phillie is playing for them in Eduardo Escobar. He plays everywhere – like Merryfield, and he is a switch hitter. He has considerably more power from the left side with a .327 OBP and a .505 slugging %. He is the AL leader in 2B hits by a significant margin. He does not steal bases but has a high % steal rate when he does. He specializes in short, 2B, and 3B but can also play outfield. If that isn’t the “new age” Phillie – nobody is. As a rental he won’t command a host of prospects – and he is most likely to resign with the Twins.

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    1. Escobar may have negative regression awaiting him.
       Before 2018, his prior three years were very average replacement.
       His WAR of 2.7 over those three years….is the exact same as Maikel Franco’s WAR over those three years.
       This ESPN article explains the dangers of ‘latest spurts’ and expecting them to continue.
       http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24142273/the-most-common-trade-deadline-mistake-mlb-next-big-thing

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97. See that the Mets have just traded Jeurys Familla. Hope it’s not a deal with the Phillies; don’t really want his baggage.

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    1. You can rest easy now. Familia went to Oakland.

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    2. The Phillies were supposedly linked to him, but happy he went elsewhere.

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98. Klentak said he would like to avoid the starting pitching market at the deadline. That concerns me. With Arrieta’s shaky at best performance last night, my confidence level in any of the other 4 SPs (aside from Nola) sustaining a consistent enough 2nd half to keep the team in 1st place isn’t high. If not, the bats would really have to catch fire.

    Todd Z mentioned the Phillies scouting Detroit recently, suggesting their interest in Castellanos as a RF/3b possibility. As much as I like his bat, his glove leaves much to be desired. And the team defense is already well below league avg.

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    1. We’re in first place, and really only Nola and Eflin have beaten expectations. Do you believe that VV and Pivetta are better than they are? Even Happ as a rental will cost you a fringe top 100 prospect. You willing to give that?

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99. The D has been a real disappointment, and we can point to Kingery not being familiar with SS, but Crawford had too may E6s before he got hurt. They also have to lead the league in Passed Balls. But, that has to improve a lot!

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100. matt13………..catching……below average defensively.
     The Phillies are close-to-the bottom of the league in catchers’ defense

     Actually them and Cleveland are near the bottom…go figure that out.
     One thing to have thirteen PBs and thirteen errors from the catching department in the 96 games played so far, but they also have poor framing abilities……………….and umpires these days seem to depend on a catcher’s ability to frame his pitchers’ pitch correctly or else it is a ball..
     I was hoping at age 25 (Alf) and 26 (Knapp) years old respectively , they would now be somewhat more polished behind the plate. Maybe I am being a little too critical on them, since Chooch was a late bloomer of sorts and spooled a lot of us for many years.

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     1. spoiled , not spooled

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101. I had a dream, Hinkie.

     This coming off season – 2 years before his contract ends – the Angels brass sits down with Mike Trout and his agent. They are discussing the future. Trout respectfully declines their offer to sign a more than generous extension. He’s content to wait until free agency in November 2020. All the while, Matt Klentak – a former LAA exec – contacts the Angels GM who in turn contacts Trout’s agent to consider discussing a sign and trade with the Philadelphia Phillies. He agrees. Early December 2018, a deal is consummated.

     The Phillies, meanwhile, have signed Manny Machado to what was to that point the most lucrative contract in MLB history. It now becomes the 2nd.😉

     ….fulfilling Andy MacPhail’s credo, they literally buy the bats.

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     1. Martin luther king. I heard the other day that Machado is in love with the philly guys who know him from Baltimore. He didn’t give them a ringing endorsement

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     2. rocco…..let them catch you.
        See what happens.

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     3. 8mark … as Lionel Richie once said … “You had an awesome dream !”
        Unfortunately, in this case, dreams do not come true. The earliest Arte Moreno would even consider trading Trout is next offseason if the Angels miss the playoffs again in 2019. And, even then, I believe Moreno will sell the farm and go heavy in free agency to make the post season in 2020 in one last ditch effort to coax Trout to sign an extension.
        I still feel the Phillies and Trout have each other on their minds, but they probably won’t be united until either July of 2020 (via trade) or after the 2020 season as a FA.

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102. Unfortunately 8mark, that was a dream. I don’t believe Moreno trades him until the last year and if Trout tells him he will not re-sign under any circumstances . We need to prepare as if that never happens.

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103. Famiglia trade complete with Oakland. Rumor Mill has been relatively slow so far. I expect us to make a move.

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104. Angel Dilemma:
     ….Retool or Rebuild
     …..Get Trout Into the Playoffs Too Sweet or Else….Adios Los Angelos Amigos

     https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/angels-should-sell-at-trade-deadline-but-a-full-blown-rebuild-probably-wont-happen/

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     1. Romus … yes, the Angels better hope they see the post season tout suite. Making the playoffs in 2019 or 2020 may be the only thing keeping Trout from joining the Phillies as a FA after the 2020 season.
        After the Arrieta signing John Middleton admitted he has a secret list of future FA’s he has circled. I’m sure MM and Mike Trout are on that list.

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        1. My view of this is that, no matter what else they do, a Mike Trout contingency plan will be in place until it’s a done deal somewhere else. They will always have room for Mike Trout and whatever it is he will make in salary (probably around $45-50 million – and even at that, he won’t be overpaid – he’s that good).

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105. Romus, they have to retool. No one can lose the best player in Baseball without making every effort and I expect them to spend this off season and next to get to the Playoffs. I don’t see a scenario where Moreno just gives up. I wouldn’t trade Trout, if I am Moreno, for the entire Phillies farm system.

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     1. If I knew for sure. that trout would leave. Nola , Seranthony, Sixto. Hopkins, Obbie. is a nice haul for him

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        1. rocco….seriously, giving that group up of young players, just changes position with the Angels and the Phillies end up finishing in 3rd or 4th in the NL-East.

           Of course, I give up Hopkins, not sure Bernard has anything left in the tank at this point!. )

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           1. No Romus. He’s referring to Rice Hopkins.

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106. In a way I feel bad for the Angels and their front office. Objectively, they should probably move Trout – but would you want to be the GM forever known for trading a guy who could easily go down as being one of the five best players in baseball history? I wouldn’t think so.

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107. Rumors are O’s want to at least equal if not beat the Herrera trade by the Nationals. In that trade they recieved x3 total prospects. Two of which were in the 9-12 range of their system.

     So would a package of Kilome, Gamboa, Brito, Fanti be enough? I get the feeling it might have to be an overpay by the philies this deadline to get someone significant.

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     1. I think something like Suarez or Irvin or Kilome and Valentin might get it done. As good as Britton can be – he has limited value with his history and the expiration of his contract.

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        1. The Nationals gave up two prospects who were ranked in the 10-15 range of their system. The Nats’ system isn’t nearly as deep as the Phillies. That said, the way Britton has rebounded from his achilles injury (higher velo/outstanding GB %), the feeding frenzy for him should drive his price up somewhat. I would not give up Ranger Saurez, Adonis Medina, or JoJo Romero for him. The O’s might push for Spencer Howard. I’d prefer something like:
           one of Cole Irvin/Drew Anderson + Daniel Brito. I’d even include Edgar Garcia if it took that to beat the Astros.

           Also … Klentak should have an offer for Jake Diekman ready in case they fail to land Britton.

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           1. Not sure I would value Ranger Saurez any more than Cole Irvin.

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              1. At this point, Ranger Saurez is rated as a Phillies top pitching prospect. Irvin is in the second tier. I got in on KLaw’s chat this week. He has the Phillies top pitching prospects ranked like this:
                 1. Sixto Sanchez
                 2. JoJo Romero
                 3. Ranger Saurez
                 4. Adonis Medina

                 Hinkie: You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?

                 Keith Law: Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

                 BTW … it might take Kilome to get a Britton deal done. Would you do that? I might consider Kilome and Brito.

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                 1. Kilome is fairly expendable IMO. I would be a bit reluctant to give up both Kilome and Brito for a rental, but it’s probably a realistic offer.

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                 2. I’m pretty sure Law is alone (or at least on the small minority) in rating Romero and Suarez above Medina. I’m not staying he is wrong but I will say I disagree.

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                 3. @Aron – Keith Law is the only one on record that I saw Jojo and Ranger ranking over Medina. I’m certain that the control struggles and poor statistic brought Medina down in someone else’s ranking.

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           2. Hinkie, perhaps a trade for both Diekmsn and Hamels could happen depending on the cost.

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108. Can we put to rest the notion that we don’t need to add a bat and an arm? That, somehow, the under achievers will all up their games over the next 8 weeks and stellar SP will continue with the D being almost the worst in the league! That’s nonsense. Kingery, who I stll think will one daybe really good, was done a disservice by not spending at least a half year in AAA. The bench is terrible. AA needsto be sent down. Klentak needs to do his job before the 1st 100 games achievment goes for nothing.

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109. Phillies and Braves are involved in most/all the big stuff, but the feeling folks have is they are less inclined to trade top prospects (and potentially impact future years) than some others.

     — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 22, 2018

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     1. I think is a prudent position for both teams (Braves and Phillies), particularly if the acquired player is a rental or has a bad contract. Now if either team chooses to absorb a bad contract to lower the price in prospects, that’s an entirely different matter.

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110. After today is there anyone who still wants Nick Pivetta to start? Get a Left handed starter and a LH reliever. Move Pivetta to the bullpen.

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111. Lok, I do not want to trade a top guy at all. We can get a Castellanos and a Diekman without hurting the stem at all! Castellanos is bad defensively? Who cares? The D has been terrible, so maybe we win a few games by hitting? There are upgrades out there without sacrificing any top guys.

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     1. matt … what makes you think Castellanos will come cheap?

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112. System not stem! Sorry

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113. Why isn’t there any love for David Parkinson in any top 50 rankings?

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     1. The Phils had a sudden influx of low minors prospects that have higher ceiling than Parkinson. So not making the Top 40/50 doesn’t mean that Parkinson is a bad prospect. It just means that the farm has plenty of young prospects with better projection.

        While the results looks good, the stuff is average and Parkinson physical projection is not that much to improve on his stuff. He is basically a LH version of Ben Lively.

        However, it rankings will be voted now, Parkinson will jump to Top 30 because of the “what have you done lately” factor from the voters,

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114. Somebody’s wish came true today. Altherr and Leiter have been optioned to Lehigh.

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