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275 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of June 3, 2018”
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Phuture Phillies 
Okay, I think the Manny watch should officially be on now cuz nobody wants to watch Jake Arrieta’s bat be our only trace of offense vs three non-Cy Young candidates in SF.
Franco, de los Santos and Kilome is at worst a competitive package to get it done. I maintain that in the Phillies case, where there is a history between the FO and Machado’s camp, acquiring him via trade helps their case in re-signing him as a FA. And should the team fare well this playoff run, this destination may look even more appealing to Harper/Boras as well. Worst case, if Manny goes elsewhere, losing the 3 players I proposed above would not set the organization back too severely. It’s still a calculated risk worth taking IMO.
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I would do that deal in a second. Franco is a below replacement level player. If they want him, then Klentak should drive him to the airport personally.
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That’s a good example of where it might be a good risk to make a trade – it might be a slight overpay (just because he’s on the verge of free agency), but it would be worth it to have him for the rest of the year and it would give the team the home court advantage in signing him long term. Yeah, I think that’s a good trade dividing line – that’s just about where I’d go to do it but probably not further than that.
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It’s too high a price for a rental, and too low a price if it’s a sign and trade type deal. And why would the O’s want Franco? The Phillies were hoping he would reestablish himself this year. He has – he has advanced from a disaster to mediocre I’d hate to see de los Santos go, but as part of a deal for Machado, it could be worth it.
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Why in God’s name would the Orioles take Franco in any deal?
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Saw this in transactions:
6/2/18 Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent C Ryan Asencio to a minor league contract.
6/2/18 Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent OF Giuseppe Peguero to a minor league contract.
6/2/18 Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent SS Christopher Duran to a minor league contract.
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Bob who are these players??? Second any one watch old westerns, the guy try’s to sell medicine as a clue all for any ailment. con artist. That is Kapler. I said it before he is a bozo and until they make the playoffs with this manager and gm. I will continue to say it. the guy stinks.
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Baseball players are creatures of habit. I don’t think his bouncing them all over the order helps, ie, Altherr is batting 4th Saturday and 8th Sunday.
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A clue or a cure?
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This club needs at least one hitter. Love Jake’s fire and passion. Kingery needs more minor league seasoning and the Phils need a real manager. In addition, I’ve seen enough of Hector Neris.
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I’d like to talk about the Phillies offense this year now that we are 2 months in. Going into this season, I think many of us had hoped that Hoskins, Herrera, Santana, Cesar, and Kingery would have performed so well that their positions would be locked down for years to come. The more optimistic hoped that maybe a couple of JOC, Franco, Alfaro, Altherr, Quinn, and/or Williams would do the same. After two months of a fairly easy schedule, the results have not been promising. I’ve used a very simple scale per player of Exceeding Expectations, On Target, or Not Meeting Expectations. Here’s what I have:
Alfaro – slightly exceeding
Knapp – not meeting
Santana – not meeting (trending +)
Cesar – on target
Kingery – not meeting
Crawford – not meeting
Franco – barely on target
Hoskins – not meeting
Quinn – not meeting
Altherr – not meeting
Williams – not meeting (trending +)
Herrera – exceeding (trending -)
Florimon – not meeting
Valentin – not meeting
To summarize, 2 exceeding, 2 on target, and 10 not meeting.
A lot was made early on about the inconsistent playing time impacting players. With some injuries, much of that has worked itself out in the short term. I wonder if a bigger issue might be the lack of consistency with where guys bat in the lineup. In about a week, it looks like Hoskins and JPC will be back and I’d propose the following for consideration:
Play the following players on a true every day basis, with consistent batting order in ( ).
Hernandez 2B (1)
JPC SS (8)
Hoskins LF (5)
Herrera CF (3)
Franco 3B (6)
Alfaro C (7)
Santana 1B (4)
I’d platoon Altherr and Williams in RF and bat them 2nd.
I’d option Kingery to AAA and play him every day at one position and bat him in the same spot each day.
I’d option Knapp and do the same with him.
I don’t know that the inconsistency is the cause of the problem, but I don’t think it’s helping.
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That’s just about a perfect summary. I think a demotion really might help Kingery and Knapp focus on their hitting and both need to do that. In retrospect Rupp would have been a superior back-up, but hindsight is 20/20 and I was one of the people who advocated his departure.
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I don’t believe in ranking bench players because they are bench players for a reason. They are not the reason why the Phillies are losing. And to think that all 12 position players will be performing well at the same time is crazy.
That said, once JP comes back, Kingery needs to go to AAA and get everyday ABs. I have always maintained that bouncing him around does nobody any favors.
The biggest disappointment so far has been Altherr. That guy has not hit at all and he’s looked bad a lot. He needs to lose more playing time to Nick Williams.
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I don’t think anybody suggests or expects all 12 to be performing. The issue is that most aren’t and I hope there is some internal discussion about why that is vs hoping it’s just coincidence. I’m not suggesting these are the ‘27 Yankees but I think there is more talent here vs the output were seeing.
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I would be happy if 8 players are performing well if you know what I mean. But even then, that would be a stretch also. Do I think this team can hit better than they have shown? Yes. Are they an elite offensive unit? Not really. I think Cesar, Odubel, Santana, Alfaro are playing at expectations or are getting there. That’s 4 keepers. Franco is replaceable, Rhys’ defense is going to haunt us so he needs to start hitting big, JP/Kingery are disappointments, Williams is close.
So we need Rhys and Williams to get going to offset the other 2 positions.
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agreed. pitchers having more of a book on guys is a factor, and also possibly the low stress last year when you are 30 games under .500, vs now having some expectations with team starting out well.
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I think as long as Altherr & Williams are hitting about the same I would lean toward Altherr, for defense alone. Williams has very poor defensive instincts, just seems to lose focus or take bad angles. I’m not sure he’s an upgrade over Hoskins in left?? Altherr seems to be a more consistent defensive player.
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Will it be swoon in June for the Fightin’s….. have 24 more left…..15 at home… three with Cubbies away,…..then, they will need to make hay at CBP.
No slippages lads.
And they have now a captain for their ship thru stormy waters…CAPT Arrieta, USN, TOR
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Launch Angles and Exit Velocities are Zero when they Strike Out. There are insufficient HR hitters on this team to worry about anything other than making contact. And can someone explain to me how we are, by far, last in runs saved by the Shift in the whole league when there has been such a new emphasis on the Stats? Maybe some may question Arrieta speaking out, but what he said was true. Not only has the shifting been a negative, the overall D has been a disappointment. And, this is not just a reaction to this weekends debacle but, overall, the team’s success has been Pitching based. Bad D is not tolerable.
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The most interesting part about Gabe’s comments to me are about how he’d like to hear the pitchers’ thoughts and make adjustments to how he shifts. Why are these conversations happening now vs March? He, and this coaching staff, had 6-8 weeks of spring training to discuss these new approaches with players regarding bullpen usage, starting pitcher duration in games, defensive shifts, etc. The job of he and his coaching staff are to remove barriers and obstacles from players and make doing their job easier. I feel like many of these players have expressed doubt, confusion, frustration, and/or disagreement with various aspects.
I also understand that change is hard, and not all change will be popular, especially early on. Having said that, change can’t be successful if the players don’t understand why it’s necessary and how it helps them personally and/or the team.
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It’s easier said than done.
When the FO decided to hire Kapler, they know that they are not winning this year. Otherwise, the FO will just hire a veteran coach with years of success.
Wathan is the sentimental choice because of his relationship with the young core, but it’s obvious that Klentak wants to incorporate analytics in winning games and Kapler exemplify that approach that’s why he got the job.
People throw these advance stats because it makes them look smart. But a true “stats guy” knows that if you play analytics, you are dealing with “percentages and probabilities”. Kapler is a new manager and he is still in the theoretical aspect of balancing numbers with the feel of the game. Kapler will make mistakes not because he is not good, it is because he doesn’t know his players yet, thus, cannot match the numbers he is looking at vs his players capabilities and instincts.
I believe that analytics is a good part of decision making, but for a team with a lot of young players, basic fundamentals and opportunity is the best approach.
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If teams are winning, you let stuff slide. When teams are slumping, players get aggravated like Arrieta.
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As fans, we can only guess what is going on in the Front Office. I’m pretty sure that Klentak has made a strong offer for Machado, and maybe the Orioles are holding out for one more piece, or a better offer from another team. Personally, it’s a risk that I wouldn’t take. If Machado has a season ending injury, the Orioles get nothing in return. Medina, De Los Santos. and their choice of Franco/Crawford/Hernandez should get the deal done today. Franco is still young and has the best potential. Crawford is also very young and with his plate discipline should have an OBP of .350 or better, and Hernandez is a proven veteran. The Phillies offense needs a lightning rod, and who better than Machado. It doesn’t make sense to wait another month and a half to do the deal. The Phillies could be 10 games out by July 31st.
As I’ve been saying since March, The Phillies need a better left handed reliever than Adam Morgan. I’d be willing to offer Altherr, Kilome, and Parkinson/Stewart for a top notch lefty like Brad Hand. Seranthony and Hand would make a strong back end of the bullpen.
We’re only guessing here, but your thoughts and ideas are welcome
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klentak has done nothing. Strong offer my foot. excuse me, but middleton hiring Shelton is driving me crazy. Go after a guy who build a winner. not a 35 yr old egg head. Didn’t this organization learn in 08 bring in a guy who knows how to win. not a wet behind the ears egghead. my god anyone who defends Sheldon is nut. sorry but I just don’t understand how he is the gm.
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roccom … You’re only guessing that he’s done nothing. I’ll take a wait and see approach. Hell, he got De Los Santos for Galvis. I get that you don’t like the guy, but the organization decided to take the analytical approach in the rebuild. An old school guy sitting in a room full of scouts (even though he had success elsewhere) is not the direction that they wanted to go. Klentak may, or may not be the right guy for the job (time will tell), but like every other player and coach on the team, he will be evaluated in the winter.
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@wawa – but it’s safe to assume that Klentak is not doing enough. Most of Klentak GM decisions are risk averse.
MIN got Oddi for a B-level prospect equivalent to a Malquin Canelo. SD absorbed a contract to get a comp pick and raided the 2016 IFA to sign high ceiling prospects. PHI has deeper pockets than SD and most of the teams.
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rocco……Klentak will need to make changes, just for the pure fact he will lose a few prospects/players if he does nothing come later this year.
I just do not want him to horde prospects thinking they will blossom after he trades them….Cherington did that, and he was replaced by Dave D. who started the trading to get the Sox where they are today.
When you have a chance to contend for the playoffs and maybe even another ring, grasp it.
.
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I oft wonder to myself where are the analytics to support the analytics LOL. We should have enough of a sample size now that shows how different orgs using heavy handed analytics have
A. Made their players better players; marked improvements in Walk Rates and OBP’s etc etc
B. Crushing team OPS records and winning percentages and racking up titles left and right.
C. Crushed their amateur drafts and player develoment
I’ve been watching baseball since the late 70’s. I don’t see that much of a change but who know’s maybe there is evidence to support it.
In 1941 Ted Williams hit 406 that hasn’t been done since. Why?
It would be cool to define certain eras of baseball and compile that eras OPS to compare against other eras including the steroid era to today’s analytically driven era.
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DMAR……and you know the batter the defensive team shifted for, for the very first time? Ted Williams.
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There you go Romus we could figure out the year that started and compile Ted’s average before and after the shifts.
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DMAR….take a peek at this.
https://www.mlb.com/news/ted-williams-faced-defensive-shifts-in-1940s/c-191605204
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Romus you are a crack research guy….
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Oh, I thought he was a researcher on crack. I must have gotten that backwards (insert laugh here).
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DMAR…just saw this….I was wrong…it wasn’t Ted….but a Phillie named, Cy.
“….the first recorded instance of the shift. In the 1920s, some managers moved their defenses around to the right side against another dead pull left-handed batter, the Phillies’ Cy Williams, according to a Society For American Baseball Research (SABR) profile. This Williams, who batted .320 from 1920-26, reportedly admitted, “I couldn’t hit a ball to left if my life depended on it.” But Ted Williams became the most well-known target. In fact, the “Ted Williams shift” — an extreme version with six defenders stationed on the right half of the field — was born when Indians player-manager Lou Boudreau tried it in July 1946.”
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Wasn’t concerned about first as much as I was looking to see if there are anyt incremental increases in performance related to analytics in the way that steroids did.
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DMAr….can tell you on only one specific from the reading….Mark Teixeira lost 30 points off his BA when the shift was employed on him,
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Romus so wrong. The first defensive shift was in philly. A man at a picnic table down the lakes was thrown into the water, when Rita tollman sat on a bench, she was 380 lbs , the seat when in the air and the men landed in the water. so they started to learn how to shift weight to stop those weight watcher women, from running the picinic.
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rocco…don’t insult my women.
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lol.
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I don’t think anyone can hit .406 now, even someone like Ted Williams (who, as I review his stats again, is the pure greatest hitter who ever lived, even if Babe Ruth is the greatest player who ever lived). The improvement in pitching and the use of multiple pitchers would prevent that. Could he hit .350? Hell yes, but I don’t see anyone now hitting .400.
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I was also surprised to learn there were only 16 MLB ball clubs in 1941…so even if the best players were yet to play (Negro Leagues) in the MLB the talent dispersed was very rich.
As the MLB started to open their doors so did the expansion of teams.
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The problem is determining which statistics to look at. Imagine a hypothetical shift against a generic left handed power hitter. Let’s suppose he ordinarily hits .300, with 35 HRs and a .380 OBP and slugging of .540. Suppose against the shift his BA and OBP increase but slugging goes down. What do you use?
Also, not all shifts are identical in positioning. How does one adjust for that?
If Ryan Howard had learned to bunt and did so against against the shift 1/3 of the time when no runners were on, hitting .500, what would be the impact of that? (probably similar to the hypothetical case above) How about his results when foul funts limit his swings and makes outs that he might not have done swinging away for all 3 strikes?
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@wawa – Medina has a current value close to a Top 5 pick in this year’s draft. Without a slow start, Medina is a legit Top 40 prospect in all baseball.
I’ve mentioned this numerous times before here that BAL will not get the value they want to get from Machado and all GMs never did offer anything significant for a 1 year or Machado so why will they offer more for a 2 months rental.
Machado will be one of the most coveted FA this year, but he will not be a must-have at the trade deadline because teams (i.e. MIL, ATL, etc) will not give up anything of significance for a player who they cannot sign long term and they might might look for a cheaper alternative like Mous or Donaldson.
For the teams (i.e. PHI, NYY, LAD, CHC, BOS) who can afford to sign Machado, they either have no prospects to offer (CHC, BOS) or they have bigger holes to fill like a SP.
PHI is the team that check the following: a) Prospects (at least 2 controllable SP) that can appeal BAL; b) can offer big contract to Machado to make him stay; and c) relationship with Machado.
At most, Klentak just offer a package better than a comp pick with at least 2 controllable SPs that BAL like and no need to overpay. delos Santos + Eflin + Gamboa is already a strong offer.
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KuKo…. “they either have no prospects to offer (CHC…).”…..they start with a MLB player already in ss Addison Russell, then go from there.
He has been the one constant name that is mentioned.
And that has been the rumors from the Chicago writers when Machado’s name comes up.
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@romus – i’ve answered this in my post below and posts in other threads.
CHC don’t have prospects (which is true) but Theo might be willing to overpay (offering Russell and Happ) for a chance to win his 2nd WS in 3 years. 2 WS can be a reasonable justification to mortgage their future.
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As for a LHP reliever, GMs don’t normally give up prospects for a reliever unless they are a LHP away to become a WS contender.
The Phils is better off a) developing high leverage arms (i.e. Dominguez, Arano, Edgar Garcia) that can neutralize both sides (RH, LH); b) developing an internal LH specialist (Davis, Ranger, JoJo, El Garcia, Leib); or c) waiting for the upcoming FA to sign a top pen arm (Britton) or top lefty specialist (Diekman, Wilson, Miller).
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I would be shocked if the Orioles don’t get at least a top 100 prospect for Machado, rental or not.
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Agree with Guru. Orioles get a top 100 prospect, but that prospect will be more at the back end of the top 100.
If the earlier reports of the Cubs willing to give up Addison Russell, Ian Happ, and a MiLB pitcher are true (and I’m not sure it is), the O’s should jump at that. I don’t think they’re going to do better than that.
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Here we are it’s draft day and we still haven’t picked up a comp pick have we?
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even though Guru just said that teams will not get Machado for scrubs, I agree that GMs will not trade top prospects for a Machado rental.
CHC is the only team I can see that can overpay for Machado because 2 WS (in 3 years) can justify mortgaging their future.
LAD can throw a monkey wrench, but the GM (Zaidi) never showed his willingness to trade their top prospects.
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You’re wrong – someone is going to pay a bunch for Machado. If Aroldis Chapman is worth Gleyber Torres on a rental, just think what someone will pay for Manny, who is clearly more valuable.
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I’ve said CHC, who do you think will do that to make that statement?
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I think the Yankees and Red Sox will be in the ring, as will the Mariners. The Mariners are really desperate. And don’t discount a team like Arizona. The Cubs are as good a bet as any, however.
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And the Mariners have Matt Klentak’s old boss…. the leading and new trader on the block.. Jerry DiPoto.
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@catch – every contending team will inquire but it doesn’t necessary mean they can pull out the trade. BOS has nothing to offer. I think NYY can dangle Adams (sheffield) + Dillon, but with their massive contract obligations and desperate need long term solution at SP – they will balk on giving up on Adams and Sheffield, but instead deal for a Cole Hamels and/or Happ for cheap price and stabilize the rotation.
True, nobody will discount SEA since Dipoto is a gunslinger, but he know he cannot mortgage his future especially their team is not good enough to even beat HOU.
ARI?? They will lose Corbin to NYY and they know it. ARI cannot outbid the big markets for Machado and they know it. Larussa is gone. There will no be no risky decisions coming out of that FO.
And HOU, possibly. But that FO is a true hedge masters. If Machado is not a rental, then they are a player — but Machado is not. HOU lives and die with their farm system so they will not mortgage it for a rental.
As i said, it will be Theo and CHC who can wreak havoc into the Machado sweepstakes.
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Just wait and see – mark my words, whoever it is will give them more of a haul than you might have expected. He will not come cheap.
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catch, I think you’re spot on. There are too many teams who figure Manny can seal the deal for them this year so trade talks will yield a serious return or there will be no deal. More so for the fact that teams will have the money to see themselves able to sign him long term. There is a better chance that the stubborn Peter Angelos pulls Manny off the market altogether than that he goes for kibbles and bits in a trade.
The base line trade I can see is Machado to the Astros for impending free agent Marwin Gonzalez and prospects OF Kyle Tucker and P J.B. Bukauskas, both top 100 prospects. Those are pieces Houston can afford in search of a second title. They went all in last year on Verlander and it paid off. Verlander is off their books after 2019 so winning is now and they could sign Machado long term Nothing significantly less should bring a team Machado in trade.
And any trade should come in the back half of July. Angelos will dictate timing. With Manny there, they still have 2018 ticket plans to sell in Baltimore. Nobody coming back in trade is going to butts in seats any time soon.
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@fighterflea – i disagree about HOU.
1st, they already have Correa and Bregman in the left side of the INF.
2nd, HOU sucked for a long time that they don’t want to taste it again after the recent success, they will not mortgage their future. they did not do it for 2-3 of Verlander, so they will not do it for a rental who they have an internal option.
3rd, HOU loves them top prospects. it is thru the farm that they enjoyed success, they will not deviate from that approach. maybe in 10 years, but not now.
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roccom, the team hired MacPhail to take the Gillick role. He is who they thought could build a winner. And, he, in turn, hired Klentak, someone he was familiar with who also was an analytics guy. Advancing the team’s analytics was a mandate of ownership. I don’t know how it will work out, and I have my concerns, but I still think it is too early to give up.
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I was at a B-Day party Saturday and a bunch of kids were there all under the age of 10. I watched them play in the yard and a pick up game materialized. you can spot very quickly who the athletes are just by watching them run and throw and take swings at a moving ball.
One kid stood out to me and when he ended up in the chair next to me for a hot dog I asked what is your favorite sport. He paused for a moment and said baseball. I said cool that’s my favorite sport too.
I asked do you play little league or travel ball. He said well I play travel ball mostly but I have to play in house ball in order to play travel ball. Oh I said and what is the difference between the two. He said my travel team is a lot better everyone on the team can hit and catch.
Hmmm….who is your favorite baseball team I asked. The Phillies of course was his reply. That’s great I said they are my fav team too. How old are you I asked. 10! Do you watch baseball on TV? Yes he says. He adds now that I understand it I like to watch it. I had to ask my dad a lot of questions but once I got the hang of it it was more interesting to me.
It was a pleasurable conversation and he clearly was a very intelligent boy. I then began with some teasing by asking him if he knew what his OBP was…no he said. How about your OPS….no he said.
Do you know what those things mean? no he said our coaches know all that stuff. 🙂
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DMAR….you should have got his autograph on a baseball…never know in a decade or so where he wilt be. 🙂
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Darn another missed opportunity Romus
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DMAR…..don’t worry, there will be other birthday parties…at least enjoy the cake. 🙂
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What are you talking about? Give the kid your card and tell him you’re a sports agent! Tell him to call you when he’s a junior in HS.
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Romus What does WILT mean??
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DMAR,
Thanks for the great story.
I was worried at the beginning that they would have broken into a soccer game.
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Go Bohm!
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Rupp just signed a minor league deal with the Twins. I think he will be up in about a week.
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If the Phillies get Manny, he is the long term 3b. I think Bohm moves to a corner OF. I also think that’s partly why they didn’t select Madrigal. Franco is history.
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He plays SS, not 3B and he’s been very clear about that.
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@murray – i think once Machado gets his big contract, he will not care where he plays. he knows he plays better defensively at 3B than SS. the SS stunt is just to increase his value during the contract negotiations.
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If there were any doubts, they were put to rest. Eflin needs to scrap his 2-seamer. He went 4-seam, slider, changeup and he tore through a hot Cubs lineup.
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Romus watched some of the game last night. Elfin was around 95 with nice secondary pitches. But only I believe two strikeouts. weird with his stuff to not strikeout people. Best I ever saw him pitch
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Eflin’s control is not the greatest. A good 5 times where Alfaro called for a high fastball and Eflin threw it way too high. And the Cubs were aggressive. Anything in the strike zone and they were swinging. That must have been the scouting report based on his last 2 poor performances.
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Wind was blowing in….he could throw more 4Smr and let them hit it in the air.
Now if someone had just told Doobie to play shallow because of the same conditions, a few of those lazy pops would not have fallen in.
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The Phillies are undefeated since drafting Alec Bohm, Kendall Logan Simmons, and Dominic Pipkin. Just sayin’.
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I wonder what it would take to get a rental in Moustakas. His bat would look great in our park and in our lineup right now. Franco and a minor league pitcher?
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You know what’s funny? How we all know that Franco is not good and want him traded yesterday. And guess what? If we know Franco isn’t good, the other 29 teams know it also! He has 2.2 WAR in 5 seasons! Franco has no trade value.
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Franco has these pluses on his side…his age and contract.
That will let some GMs take a chance on him.
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We don’t all know that Franco is not good. Yes he’s been average to below average, but our expectations were too high, thus the disappointment. Right now, we have nobody in the organization to replace him, and getting a rental not named Machado makes no sense. I’m trusting in the front office to do what they need to do (another unpopular thought). If they do decide to trade him, I want a player who will help us this year, and not another prospect.
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Wawa don’t trust this fo, You will only be hurt and disappointed
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roccum … You may be right, but so far they haven’t given me any reason not to trust them.
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Franco does have some value. He would not be the first player to benefit from a change in scenery. Let’s not forget Rizzo for Cashner. We can debate what is or is not a prohibitive cost to acquire Machado at the deadline another time, but if we don’t get him, the adding of Moustakas at the deadline may be a good move. And, a young player like Franco may be of interest to a rebuilding KC Royals team. Together with one of the vast surplus of pitching prospects without giving up a top one. That may work, and Moose hitting at CBP in July and August could be a very good thing.
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Cashner was a former first round pick who was throwing 95. He still has a ton of ability. Anthony Rizzo was a top 100 prospect. At the time of the trade, Rizzo was 21 and only had 1 year of experience. Cashner was 24 with 2 years of experience. This was a solid talent for talent trade.
I have no doubt that Maikel could benefit from a change of scenery. That said, we’re still talking about a guy who’s into his 5th year, and his WAR is trending in the wrong direction as he ages. I would guess that most teams have a player like Maikel on their roster already. So why trade for him, when odds are, he’ll get cut within 2 years.
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No, he’s worth a gamble particularly for a second division club or a team that wants a guy around who may have some upside. Worst case he’s a second division regular and great back-up, but he could be a guy who blossoms and becomes another Aramis Ramirez.
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So a team is going to give a B level prospect for a 25 year old (soon to be 26) Franco who’s making almost $3M? So if you were the Phillies, you would trade Dylan Cozens (#16 prospect) or Kyle Young (#18 prospect) for a clone of Maikel Franco? Seriously?
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Actually yeah – you’re not seeing the whole picture – Mikael Franco is still young, fields well and has upside – it’s exactly what happened when the Pirates traded Ramirez to the Cubs – they gave up on him, he changed teams and took off.
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And if I was a team with a hole at third I’d trade a Kyle Young for a Franco in a heartbeat – hell yes
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And Ramirez was precisely Maikel Franco’s age when he was traded from the Pirates to the Cubs.
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So you know what’s going to happen then? If the Phillies feel that he can turn into Aramis Ramirez, they’ll just keep trotting him out there and we’re stuck with him until Bohm is ready.
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No, of course I don’t know what will happen. Don’t put words in my mouth. What I’m saying is that he’s a player who could break out in the next couple of years and become a well above average player and he’s already a second division regular. And that the chance that he might do that is well worth a middling prospect like Kyle Young (yeah folks, I hate to break it to you, but Kyle Young is not a very valuable prospect) or Dylan Cozens who have almost no value at all.
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@Catch, I didn’t mean it like that. I meant that if the Phillies feel that he could turn into Aramis, they will just keep him until a better option comes around. No disrespect man.
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Again, you’re looking at the wrong way – the possibility that he could be Ramirez is why he has lasted so long here. And someone would be willing to risk a type b prospect to take the same risk because he is talented. It’s not a high bar.
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I would trade Cozens for Franco.
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Look, every season we talk about trading players that we don’t want: Cam Rupp, Tommy Joseph, Cody Asche. We talk about trading them for international money, players, etc. And in the end, the outcome is still the same. Nobody wants them, and they end up getting DFAd.
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Oddly enough, Rupp and Joseph might have helped this team. I was also in favor of moving them, but their replacements have not exactly been stellar.
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He may not be a great major league player, but Cameron Rupp is a legitimate major league player. If he is released again, they would be better off with him than Knapp who has failed beyond any reasonable or foreseeable expectation – he’s just not playing at anything close to a major league level.
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ToJo was hot when they got rid of him.
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I wish they would trade Pullin or his rights anyways. Maybe a change in scenery would have done him good.
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Short season A starts next Friday. Hoping to see some of the draft picks in Williamsport. Bowman is looking good, with even more improvements to the second-oldest professional ballpark: a few more seats added; improvements to the netting; a bit of the grass parking area paved; the picnic deck repaired and painted. Eagerly anticipating…
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JPC recalled. Mitch Walding back to Lehigh Valley. Hope he gets another chance and doesn’t have a career 0 for six, all K’s.
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It’s tough. His next shot might be with another team as a minor league FA.
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flawed approach.
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Here goes the JP in the 9 hole pitcher in the hole again.smh
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Actually Gabe is using the same lineup as last night vs the lefty Quintana. Encouraging to see Kingery squaring up on some pitches recently. While I didn’t oppose the idea of him going to Lehigh for a spell, I’m glad Kapler has stayed with the kid, and batting him third to help get him some pitches to hit. It’ll be interesting to see how he, Crawford and Franco get their playing time divvied up.
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If Kingery gets much 3B time it might tell us something about the front office’s current assessment of Franco.
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Why JP k’d twice and looks lost at the plate . He has a great hit tool in minors . Throw him out there for another 100 at bats if he can’t figure out ML pitching send him down.
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This time last year I wondered if JP would ever hit a ball. time
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I swear I just called that Cozens’ HR right before he hit it. My two dogs can vouch for me.
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I swear, I don’t know what Gabe Kapler is doing. Dominguez had to hit, and be on the bases when Morrow got wild. Then Seranthony got wild, and Gabe brings in Adam Morgan??? Adam Morgan who has a WHIP of 1.5 and walks 5.3 per 9? So you know what was going to happen. Morgan walked the first guy he saw. Then he has to face Heyward (lefty on lefty action) but Heyward is 3-6 against Morgan with a HR. And we know the ending to that story. What a joke. Morgan can’t be used in high leverage situations, you just can’t trust him.
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if not saying this after the fact, but i’ve been saying WTF while watching the Top 9. When Cozens hit the go ahead HR, i expect Kapler to play match up since he already had Seranthony pitched 2 consecutive games and might need him when Pivetta and Vinny are scheduled to pitch. Seranthony had done his part by neutralizing the heart of the order.
After Alfaro walked, I expect Knappy to pinch hit and a combination of Arano-Neris-Garcia to pack it up.
I love Seranthony but I hope that Kapler will not pitch his arm to the ground.
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The 9th wasn’t one of Kapler’s shining moments. Morgan was totally out of his realm. That was a heart sinker and hopefully won’t be another bad loss we look back on. There have been 5 or 6 games we shoulda-coulda-woulda.
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Morgan didn’t have his sinker . He put a 97 mph FB high over the plate to a ML hitter waiting for it. It Happens maybe should have used his CU there .
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And just an aside – that shift on Bryant’s “double” steal. Sorry but somebody HAS to cover 3b. Another case of boy, don’t we look stupid! Another gift run.
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I could understand Kapler not wanting to use Neris, he’s been terrible. But where’s Ramos? In the top of the 9th, you have Garcia and Morgan warming up? WTH is that? If Kapler is talking matchups, then why is Morgan pitching to Heyward, who has hit Morgan well in the past
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That’s why you need 2 LhP in the Bp .
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I am hoping that middleton Goes out and gets a real baseball man to run this team. Kapler as I told you is a carnival barker. Shelton is a immature little kid over his head,
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At this point I’m neither a big Klentak fan nor detractor. Again, the plan is solid, but we’ll see regarding talent evaluation – the early returns are mixed. The team certainly has improved quite a bit. How much that is attributable to Klentak is unclear to me now.
On Kapler, man do people overreact to short-term issues. He is a new manager, he’s smart and he works his ass off. He is learning and he’s going to get better and he has gotten better. My biggest concern with him would be that he would be like a Chip Kelly or Andy Reid – so arrogant and convinced of his own theories that he wouldn’t change or listen. But, to his credit, I haven’t found that to be the case at all. He didn’t rip or overreact to Jake Arrieta’s comments and seemed willing to try to work with him, he seemed to react well when he was ripped for taking Nola out to early AND he changed and is leaving starters in longer. Would you rather have a new manager like the Mets manager who rips his players all the time in public? Heck no. Kapler is new on the job, seems to be learning as he should, cares, seems to communicate well with players and is trying like heck to get better and is open to all sorts of new ideas. I’m definitely okay with him for now.
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Let’s face facts, unless Kapler leads this team into a death spiral, he’s not getting canned after 1 year on the job, so I won’t be asking for his head.
Kapler seems to be a very positive person and I’m not averse to change, but we need to see some results.
Point 1: His shifts have been atrocious. Why is that? I don’t know but this needs to change fast. I’m sure we’re still one of the few teams who are giving up hits because of the shift.
Point 2: Bullpen management. He’s using Seranthony in multiple innings and that’s not a good thing. In the long run, this could be detrimental to his health. Who’s the closer? It’s not Neris, I thought it was Ramos. Being a closer is a different beast. You need to have the mental makeup to do it consistently. Just because somebody is lights out in the 8th, doesn’t mean he can do it in the 9th. Neris is a prime example of that.
Point 3: The Scott Kingery experiment. We’re treating Kingery like he’s a vet who’s able to hit at this level. He’s still a rookie, and we’re bouncing him all over the place.
If I’m grading Kapler on a 10 scale for what he’s done so far, I give him a 4. I’m not happy with what I’m seeing.
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Counterpoints
Point 1: The Phillies are trying to do something that helps the team and I suspect that an enormous amount of data goes into those shifts. Over time they will undoubtedly get better at this, but the alternative is doing the same old, same old and I like that they are daring to do something different. And I don’t think they are so stupid that they will do the same things that fail over and over. Give this time – it will sort itself out, but I applaud them for trying. We need them to be bold and adjust when what they try does not work.
Point 2: The problem with baseball fans and really all fans is: (a) their analysis tends to be anecdotal; and (b) they only remember what failed. Last night didn’t work out – oh well. But people forget the times that Seranthony was brought into a game at the most critical juncture and saved the day. I am not convinced that the closer model is the most effective use of a high leverage reliever. I think that, quite possibly, the older model of the “fireman” reliever who is brought in when most needed might be the way to go – or some combination of closer and fireman. And the biggest mistake last night was that they used Seranthony the night before when they didn’t need him. I think, over time, Gabe will realize that you never use your best reliever in a low leverage situation unless it’s the day before a day off (meaning your reliever will be fresh for the next game). He’s not stupid, he will figure this out.
Point 3: We all assume Kingery is struggling at bat because he’s playing multiple positions. This is just a guess – we don’t know this at all. The biggest thing is that they are trying to get all of their young players enough at bats, which is a good thing. And, by the way, by playing multiple positions, Kingery really is making himself a more useful and valuable player. I’m more upset by Valentin not play at all than I am about Kingery moving around.
For now, I’ll give Kapler a 6. People are assuming that he’s had nothing to do with their good start – which I think is nonsense. He’s got some learning to do, but I think he’ll be fine.
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For point 1, my beef is that it looks like the other teams have access to the same data and are doing the shifts a lot better than us.
Point 2: I’m still of the belief that not everybody is cut out to be a closer, no matter how good they are.
Point 3: Regardless of Kingery moving around, he just hasn’t hit period.
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I have said it for a couple years now. Kingery is a good player. But, the coaches that have been teaching all these kids to get the ball up in the air and let the juice carry it have not mentioned that the pitchers will adjust to it and take it away. Hard to loft the high fastball with CU and slider. The golf swing will have a hard time with it. Looks good in the minors, but the big league guys figure it out fast. Give me the line drive guys anytime.
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Catch – to your point 2. Couldn’t agree more that Seranthony should not have been used in that first Cubs game – however – i also feel there was a palpable need to win that game “at all costs” in Gabe’s mind after that “horsexxxx” series vs. Giants. I think he felt pressure to stop the bleeding no matter what.
The really sad thing about last night’s game was the team had come back – it was flukey – but showed resilience. Seranthony (even though he was at 26 pitches) would have finished off the game by probably giving up only one run. I say Gabe went to the Tony LaRusso school of over managing.
I also think you take a good measure of Gabe’s positives. He is all of those positives you mention but somehow we have a difficulty “liking” him because he is not “old school” but more experimental. I, like you, think he is learning on the job but his people skills and willingness to not get over committed to his position may be what keeps him afloat. But right now its a grimace and bear it.
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He is comparable with Doug Pederson in his first year. New managers need time to develop their practical side. Most have the philosophy down. He is learning well how to put it all together. Also think Terry Francona. He made his mistakes here and is now a great major league manager. Give him time.
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I agree hope they keep kapler. With him we are getting another top 3 pick next year. Eventually we will get it right on our first round position player/
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rocco…..no top three at this point…. even if the Phillies play an abysmal .400 from here on out….that would give them 73 or so wins…..five teams, right now, may not get that….Os. Royals, Reds, CWsox, Marlins.
So would you be happy with the 6th pick? 🙂
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rocco…..actually I was in favor of hiring Joe Girardi after the Yankees let him go.
But let us give Kapler awhile.
Last night might have been the 4th or 5th give away and he has been connected to all of them in tactical pitching decisions ……and that will show up in Sept if they are still in the hunt.
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I think you and catch have brain freeze today, He is the worst manager that implores shifts in baseball. has blown at least 5 games in the first third of season and you think its okay. amazing its me I am nuts
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You’re nuts. LOL.
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I like your use of implores, Roccom. He is wishing the shifts to work at this point. He has faith in this style of managing. I think he will be fine, even if we won’t.
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How about putting Rob Thompson as manager who was Joe Girardi’s bench coach with the Yankees. I too do not like what I am seeing as we should be in first place without his blunders.
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I agree that Kapler has “cost” us with his ingame decisions and use of the pitching staff. However, a strength of this club so far has been resilience. Let’s see them shake this one off and come back behind Nicky P to take the series.
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8 mark wait I have to look up that word> RESILIENCE
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We’re gonna make you a savant before we’re through with you, Roc.
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I was impressed with Cozens’ opposite field swing last night. Shades of the Big Piece. I’m not saying he’s an every day starter but that power is intoxicating.
Has anyone heard anything on Williams’ sore left wrist?
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the game was lost last night because the phils lack a loogy. morgan is not a loogy. madden would not have pinch hit for hayward and a loogy would have very likely got him. where were the analytics when it was known that hayward was 3 for 6 against morgan?
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3 for 6 with a HR. It’s bizarre. Either you agree with the analytics or you don’t. Seems like Gabe is picking and choosing when to follow the stats.
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Poor guy – he can’t win. If he just follows stats then people say he is a computer manager with no feel for the game. If he abandons the stats people say he has no principles and just picks and chooses indiscriminately. Some people just have decided to be against him.
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He deserves at least two years.
The new guys:
The Mets’ guy is coming under a little fire also.
Yankees and Red Sox can be managed by rocco and his bench coach Romus and still win.
Nats and their new guy are starting to catch fire….but the team was also loaded like their AL counterparts in the Al -East.
Detroit was a not expected to do much…..somewhat like the Phillies.
Though Arrieta and Santana signings have to be put into the equation
And the Braves eruption makes the Phillies progress look somewhat pale.
Kapler however should not be above criticism.
But he should get some time to see what he can do.
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So you agree that Adam Morgan should have been the guy to get the save?
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If you are talking to me.
No….it was a poor decision on his part coming from the Monday morning QB angle.
But in the big picture of things….the fans will have to suffer thru his decisions for at least a year and probably two.
The team cannot help but get better as the youthful players progress.
Let’s just hope the managers poor decisions resulting in losses, will be fewer.
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Klentak and Kapler needs to be clear with the vision of this team. Arrieta and Santana might accelerate the timeline, but development needs time. the Phils are one if not the youngest team in the MLB. If Klentak wants to contend and forego development time, then he needs to put the best available resource in the line up and purge the team of scrubs (Curtis, Jake, etc).
Also, where is Arano? Is he hurt? I haven’t seen him pitch for a week now. If the Phils believe that Arano and Ramos are high leverage arms, they should put them to a test.
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Santana at .220 has the 4th highest average in todays lineup.
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KURDT come on you joke. You really think and I am being dead serious. Klentak has a plan and knows how to win. Kapler is a pure dope. he should take his money and open a gym and go on with his life , He is the worst manager I have seen totally clueless in his approach which without a computer, he is really done.
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what plan?! Klentak is a McPhail disciple. Their plan is to pretend they are doing something, delegate everything. hope that Johnny and Sal miraculously find the golden child and collect their paychecks.
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I think that 3-7 is as bad as they thought this road trip would bring. 7 BBs and 4 hits in 4.2 Innings produced 1 run. If this continues, and even at home, the teams we are playing are good ones, their will be no need to talk about trade deadline acquisitions. They have to start to hit or there will not be enough bats to go buy in the offseason.
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MLB is getting stupid with their rules especially at the plate. Cozens makes a perfect throw and Knapp gives plenty of space to let the Cub runner score if he slides correctly. It’s time to create a definite space where a catcher has to stand to receive a throw. That rule, along with the 2B rule, exaggerated shifts and the length of the game are making hard for me to watch.
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matt,
I’m not going onto my super-long post pointing out long it took the young players of previous championship teams to mature into contenders-winners, but let’s just say the reality is that it takes several years.
We’ve got a good core of young players and more on the way. Like it or not, patience is needed, plus Machado, and maybe Harper and Trout, of course.
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Just as I was posting this, Kingery hits a clutch 2B, but that doesn’t change the fact that the hitting has been awful. Way too many Ks looking, way too many Ks period, especially later in games and with runners on base. I don’t know what they are looking for.
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matt13….” I don’t know what they are looking for.”…zebra does not change its stripes.
Other than Franco…and who knows if he will ever come around….the other batters…Alf, Altherr, Knapp and Wiliams were career minor league >20% k rates.
And usually you do not get better in the majors for a long time…then when a player may can come around, the player has about 2 or 3 year window and then the steep decline
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You are correct Romus. Justin Wilson strikes out Franco on 3 straight fastballs letter high. Franco was completely overmatched. At least he swung! Now, Wilson throws 95, but he is not Sandy Koufax. It appears that we need both Machado and Harper for the team to really compete.
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matt13…Machado may be the one . with him at 3, that will change the dynamic of the lineup.
I have to believe Hoskins and Kingery will come close to their minor league metrics eventually….maybe even JPC
And Cesar and Doobie seem to hit and get on base….and Santana provide timely production, then they may be a steady offensive team
Have to hope guys like Bohm and Haseley force their way up in 2019 or 2020 sometime.also
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Who has the stat on % of strikeouts LOOKING? The Ks overall are bad enough but watching it go by has gotten beyond ridiculous.
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Exactly! Let’s look at Aaron Altherr for example. I like him, and. I root for him, and he plays great D. But, he is hitting .188! He would need to hit what?, 45 HRs to justify his spot? 20 does not help the team.
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I said this team was 74 to 77 win team. I will now change that to 69 to 71 they stink. how can you play altherr, its not fair to the pitchers on this team,
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We’re 60 games in and 4 games above .500. That looks good considering how poor we were last season. But I think everybody agrees that we should be better than that. There’s too much talent on this team not to be hitting.
Gabe is always promoting positivity and he’s still learning, and the team is still learning, but after a while I need to see some hard coaching. We need to see him call out some players and/or bench players. This is a results business. If you don’t produce, you sit or you get get less playing time. What are we, the 14th team in hitting in the NL? That’s garbage and we need to be playing better.
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Can’t wait to see De Los Santos get called up to the big club so this lineup can also waste his fine outings with their bats on their shoulders.
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Unfortunately there are NO bats to get the call up. This is sad.
Klentak! Call Duquette or who ever is in charge in Baltimore. NOW!
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I know Tim posted this in the minor league recap thread this morning, but I figured I’d repost it here in the open thread because it intrigues me. The Phillies are using what I assume is their remaining J2 money for this period to sign French and Taiwanese pitchers.
* 17 YO Yoan Antonac is a 6’8″ RHP. He is only the seventh French player ever signed with a MLB team. https://www.12up.com/posts/6081287-phillies-hope-to-make-mlb-history-after-signing-french-pitcher-yoan-antonac
* Lin Hsin-Chieh is a 19 YO RHP who was a member of Team Taiwan’s U-18 national team. Earlier this week, he held a workout for both MLB and CPBL teams in Taiwan. The Phillies (250 thousand dollars, plus college tuition money) outbid the Reds, Cubs, Brewers Royals, Monkeys and Brothers for Lin. http://cpblstats.com/philadelphia-phillies-sign-19-year-old-lin-hsin-chieh/
This kid throws in the low 90’s with very good movement. He looks like a prospect to me.
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If he was a good prospect the yankees or redsox would have signed him.
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McPhail started signing Asian players when he was at Baltimore.
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Let’s hope he continues this winter when 27 YO Yusei Kikuchi from Japan hits the FA market.
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Hinkie I hope Mk stays in Asian market. Some really good talent there.
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The other name to know is Shintaro Fujinami. He’s just 23 YO, the same age as Ohtani. Fujinami was considered better than Ohtani by some in Japan when they were teenagers. Fujinami has been pitching as a pro in Japan since he was 19 YO. 2017 was Fujinami’s worst year. Too many walks (6.9 BB/9IP) and too few strike outs (6.3 K/9IP). If he bounces back, Fujinami could be headed to MLB in a couple of years when he turns 25.
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Here’s more Fujinami.
BTW … for some context … 155 km = 96.3 mph
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IMO, the key to the offensive success is a consistent contributor in the heart of the order and a reliable #5 to protect the clean up hitter — so that means a consistent Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana and Maikel Franco as a reliable #5. This is why I like the Phils to go after Machado (for 2 arms) to be the foundation of the heart of the order and lessen the burden to rely on Hoskins.
A Cesar-Doobie-Machado-Hoskins-Santana top of the order is decent. Alfaro, Altherr, Williams and JPC are tolerable as long as they hit in the bottom of the order.
The Phils are within striking distance eventhough the offense is not clicking yet. I expect a turn around at some point especially when everybody settles down.
The key to a sustainable run this year is the pitching. I expect Nola and Arrieta to be a consistent contributor but i’m still skeptic of Pivetta-Vinny-and who ever is the #5. A trade for a reliable arm (or sign Kikuchi as some of us are suggesting here) appears to be a necessity. I talk highly about delos Santos during the prospect ranking although i don’t expect that he can enjoy immediate success if called up. I like Drew Anderson and I want him to pitch his way to the Phillies and surprise everybody but it is starting to look like that his future might be in the pen.
I think the pen is a key strength unless it is mismanaged. Seranthony-Arano-Edgar Garcia-Anderson-Ranger-Austin Davis-Kilome has a makings of high powered bullpen arms.
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Ortiz with a HR for Lakewood.
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Hinkie, Which FA rules does Kikuchi fall under? Is it an open market to all bidders, or back to the posting with blind auctioning?
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I believe open market as soon as his team posts his availability. He 27 so not eligible for FA.
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Yes. Kikuchi will be a true FA because he’s at least 25 YO. He’s 27 YO.
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Last night MLBTR referenced Jon Heyman’s lengthy, detailed piece on Machado’s price tag. Phillies are the primary focus among teams he mentions. Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Dbacks also mentioned. Pretty compelling, suggesting that the Phillies are the most logical destination, even as a trade partner. We’ve all heard and read it before but the article sites people tied to both clubs.
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And talks have already commenced despite public statements to the contrary.
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Heyman also says the O’s are asking for 4 near MLB ready players, though that asking price is considered the usual high end and not the actual ultimate expected return.
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4 is a lot. If they are not asking for Sixto, then perhaps Pivetta/VV, De Los Santos, and Medina/Haseley.
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I don’t think Haseley is close enough to the major leagues for the O’s to want him. But I would offer either Pivetta OR Velasquez, de Los Santos OR Medina (who may not be close to MLB ready but most scouts project him as a TOR), and Franco.
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As for infielders involved in the package, I think Crawford or Kingery will be one of the names in the mix that the Os will want..
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No team is giving up their top prospect(s) for any rental. And the only teams who can acquire MM have a deep enough system to offer a compelling package. But there will likely be some pain in who we would have to give up if we’re realistic.
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The Braves are one such team but it’s doubtful they’re in financial standing to re-sign him so I don’t see them connected to him.
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Manny Machado is the best rental available to date so BAL is rightfully to ask for a big haul. But it doesn’t mean that their price is THE PRICE because everybody in the league knows that Machado is a pure rental.
While people are enamored with the statistical calculations generated by the analytics age, the GMs best shot to keep his job and adore from team owners is to WIN WITH THE LESS $$ POSSIBLE – thus, the shift to protecting higher end talents than handing out big $$. Of course, there will be GMs who will do a kamikaze approach to get the chance to win the WS but those are the ones who think that their job is on the line.
People will mentioned the big boys by default — LAD, NYY, BOS, CHC but at the most, teams (with deep farm) will surrender a late Top 100 but that’s it. With the big players trying to keep themselves under the luxury tax, the Machado market is on the Phils favor.
I don’t like Klentak overcautious approach, but this is a scenario where the Phils can rely on him —- Klentak is not a gunslinger like DiPoto, thus, will not pull the trigger to give up any of the Phils Top 10 prospects. With the only possibility i can see is Kilome because of the TOR potential appeal and possibly Gamboa.
At the least 2 controllable arms plus another 1 or 2 prospects and that’s it. The Phils are not expected to go deep in the playoffs anyway so just sit and wait until the end of the season where they can sign Machado as a FA without the risk of losing a 2019 pick.
Here’s my suggested trade offer to BAL:
OPTION 1: delos Santos + Lively + Daulton Guthrie
BAL will for more as expected then upgrade the package to:
OPTION 2: replace Lively with Eflin and talk the possibility of swapping Guthrie with Arquimedes Gamboa (need to be protected for R5 this year)
If Theo suddenly jumps in and creates havoc, then talk the possibility of involving one of Pivetta, Vinny or Kilome as one of the arms.
If Theo offers Russell, Happ and Almora, Klentak just need to stay away and look for a different alternative like Mike Mous or possibly Donaldson and just wait at the end of the year to sign Machado.
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I agree. Unless you get MM to agree to a LTC prior to any deal, I pass and wait for FA. Don’t give any one up for just a 10week rental
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Wow ! IMO … these are complete overpays.
#1) You’re only getting about 10 weeks of Manny Machado
#2) MM is not passing up a chance at free agency
#3) The Phillies are not winning a championship with or w/o MM this season
#4) Even if you thought MM could help you win this season, why would you be willing to give up a (young) member of this year’s starting rotation?
I think the Orioles are more likely going to get the greatest offer from a team capable of winning a championship this season. A team like the Cubs or even the DBacks.
That said, I’d still make a reasonable offer. A fair offer from the Phillies could include a young OFer, young SS, young P, and maybe a lottery ticket. Something like: Roman Quinn, Arquimedes Gamboa, Enyel De Los Santos, and Manuel Silva.
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In no way would I ever include Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Adonis Medina, Scott Kingery, and JP Crawford (all mentioned in this discussion) in a deal for ~10 weeks of MM.
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@hinkie – Manuel Silva IMO is a hidden gem. He has minimal trade value as of now so I will just keep him and offer some other LA players like Paulino or Carrasco.
But we agree on Gamboa and delos Santos as potential high upside trade baits that can lure BAL.
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I don’t see the Phillies trading a breakout starter (implied or potential, i.e. Pivetta or Velasquez) who is currently deployed in the rotation. They aren’t expendable pieces for a team looking at a playoff run.
Agree with Romus then that Kingery or Crawford will likely supplement any package.
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the Phils has some stable of controllable arms that BAL covets — just in that route. Kingery and Crawford will prove their worth eventually. It took Cesar 3-4 years to starting proving what he can do, so players (Hoskins, Kingery, JPC) can definitely do much better especially they displayed a very good skillset during their rise in the minors.
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Mine is not an argument for trading Kingery or Crawford, merely a suggestion as to what is likely to be part of any package – given both Philly and Balt considerations
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I highly doubt they would include Crawford but possibly. Kingery will not – I repeat WILL NOT be included in a trade, especially for a rental.
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Thanks for settling that 8mark
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I would trade Cesar, Crawford, Altherr, and Drew Anderson for Machado. The first three would break up the IF and OF logjams, and Anderson is expendable. In our wildest dreams Crawford and Cesar will never reach Machado’s numbers, and Altherr has been beaten out by Williams. Middleton WILL make the highest offer for Manny next winter.
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@wawa – you are only looking at is on the Phils perspective trying to break the logjam and to consider that all 4 will need a roster spot and Cesar and Altherr will be post-ARB soon. BAL, like most teams, will look for controllable arms (at least 2) and they don’t need a 2B. Crawford and Anderson possibly, but not Cesar and Altherr (BAL will prefer Kingery and Williams instead).
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Steve…..the Os will ask for a lot…..but that is where the expertise of Matt K’s negotiation skills comes into the pix.
The Os will definitely want pitching and infielder(s), and maybe an OFer.
But they realize MannyM is a rental for a contender….and they want more than the 35th pick for him next year.
Three entities should get it done….the quality of which is what Duquette and Klentak need to agree upon.
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Machado singing a LT deal with the Phils is essentially between the Phils (and their ability to pay) and Machado — BAL has nothing to do with this. so the proposal to add 2 more high end talent like Medina, Haseley or Kingery as a contingency or reward to BAL when Machado signs LT is a ill-advised/foolish/unwise/senseless thing to do. Why reward BAL (a party who has nothing to do with) if the decision for the LT agreement is strictly between the Phils and Machado?!?
If Middleton is willing to open his wallet and ready to spend north of $350M, then he has a shot to land Machado. Angelos will be ridiculing him if Klentak will give up 2 high end talents after Middleton just committed big time $$.
This is a crazy idea.
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it didn’t take him 4 yrs he hit in his first full season 272 with 339 obp/ in two short season of only 130 ats he hit 289, 237
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@roccom, you love for Cesar is clouding your apprehension. i assume that you stated minor leagues stat — who Hoskins, Kingery and JPC are far superior than Cesar’s.
in order for a MLB player to prove himself, it needs to be MLB stats. Cesar did not take the Phils exactly on fire when he was called up.
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KK I am stating major league stats not minor just look it up. but your right 289 with 339 obp isn’t great not like Kingery and Crawford in there first year in majors. I am not only a cesar fan I am a baseball fan , and will never understand why people don’t like him or doobie, but love Kingery and Crawford who have don’t NOTHING. Its always trade cesar or doobie. cause we have Kingery the next ty cobb its a joke. Just watch Kingery right now and tell me he is a good player If it wasn’t for his bunts he would be hitting a lot less. Swings at so many bad pitches its a joke. I have seen a lot of Crawford he isn’t a hitter. and he worked the count in minors, but in majors its a lot harder Any way how can you honestly say that Kingery or JPC ARE SUPERIOR TO CESAR. that is a joke I hope
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It’s not all about who is superior, Roc. It has everything to do with timing and projecting the next 3 to 5 years.
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Last game Kingery has a 9 pitch at bat , rips a double for a couple of RBIs . That’s called development.
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One at bat and that is development. omg take your meds tim pls , your need them
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rocco…speaking of meds…that is what she tells me all the time….is Viagra really consider a med?
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No it’s improve it took Cehe 5 yrs to hit the ball out of the infield.
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wow I agree with roccom on this one.
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Let’s break down Cehe stats a little more. he’s on Pace for 180 k’s , his .slg career avg .381 ever this yr 28 Cehe career power yr. 396 slg .
Cehe never has 30 doubles or more then 10 home runs in a yr .he also has a career high of 39 RBIs.
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Tim does he work a count. Has he gotten better obp each year. He is a leadoff hitter. who is he driving in when you have guys hitting 189 and pitcher in the 8 and 9 hole. He isn’t a slugger but a dam good leadoff hitter. you just don’t understand the game. So he has 180 strikeouts but has a 379 obp that’s not good and he is on pace if my math is right to be around 18 hr, but you will never get it, a guy who works the count gets on base is important. shame you cant see that,
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Agreed. We can criticize almost all players, including truly great players, for what they didn’t do well, but it doesn’t mean that they aren’t good. Babe Ruth didn’t steal a lot of bases. Ted Williams played poor defense. Mike Schmidt didn’t hit for a high average. But Tim has decided that Cesar isn’t good, so he’s going to cite statistics that are unrelated to his value to try to prove his point. He’s wrong. Ignore him.
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Catch Mike Schmidt hit for avg he also he has 7 season where he hit over .275. He did more In before 30 the Cehe will do in his entire career including stolen bases.
Lol comparing Cehe to Babe Ruth # ingore Catch.
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That’s before noting before
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Your looking at 1 stat not the hole picture. Most of the better players can walk. From a player that never had 10 home runs in a yr 18 would be nuts. However Ozzie Ablies is 21 is going to hit around 25 to 30 home runs hit .300 he can also walk .
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was looking at situational stats to see if anything jumped out with his strikeouts this year. nothing too much, though his strikeout rate is about 19% with nobody out vs 25% with 1 or 2;
one thing that did stand out is that in wins, he’s got a .433 OBP, vs .292 in their losses. in innings 7-9 his strikeout rate jumps to 27%, with a .320 OBP vs .375 the first 6.
he’s 4 for 5 bunting this year
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Check his homerun numbers right vs left.Cehe doesn’t have divesity hes a 2nd Base only player which doesn’t fit into Kaplers multi positional system .
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Shohei Ohtani has a grade 2 sprain of his UCL.Tommy John could be in his future.
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Depend if compatible with the sprain…..but he may be able to have PRP. injections….Nola and Tanaka did it and so far it has worked.
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Romus, he’s already been taking shots. Now on DL and out for the foreseeable future.
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Then he will not be able to throw for a few week or months…I think I remember Nola said he was not able to throw for six or eight weeks as he was getting the shots
Then when he was able to throw again it was a slow work-up process.
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I am hearing if the shots don’t work. tommy john surgery
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Ohtani had a grade one strain in the off season while teams were courting him. Damaged goods?
Angels could be in the market for a SP. Their rotation as it is has been tenuous at best. We can offer them assistance. And Kinsler isn’t what he used to be, either. Just saying….
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Maybe we can get trout for elfin and Kingery and lively. plus Williams at clearwater and austn davis.
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rocco….but if second baseman Ian Kinsler isn’t what he used to be…..then you would agree Cesar, would be of great help to the Angels! 🙂
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Noah Syndergaard will be 26 in August. His first 2 years, he started 54 games and generated 7.4 WAR. Last year, he had 7 starts. This year, he’s on the DL with strained ligaments in his finger, and he suffered a setback. So this year and last, he started 18 games and generated 2 WAR.
That’s 9.4 WAR in 4 seasons (as a comparison, Nola has 9.8 WAR) but he’s starting to get injured. Do the Mets sell high?
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Trading Syndergaard might actually be the smart thing to do, but there’s no way the Mets could deal him. They would be admitting to their fans they can’t win/are rebuilding/go follow the Yankees for a while.
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Kapler told Todd Z that it’s “not out of the question” that Rhys gets activated tomorrow. If so, does Cozens go back to Lehigh? Or Valentin?
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Bohm’s power should translate to the majors….sprays many of the long-ball from left to right-center.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/numbers-game-power-players/?utm_source=newsletter_180606&utm_medium=email
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Watching the game tonight, VV is just too frustrating. He has all the talent in the world, but he can be so inconsistent.
Kapler said that Kingery is getting SS, and JP and Franco will platoon 3B.
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VV Velo looked down . JP bat doesn’t play at 3rd.
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His velocity was slightly down, but his command went out the window after 2 batters. It was brutal.
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Gabe’s “ we can hang with anyone” is biting him in the butt. We can say VV was not good, but this is not an 11-8 game. This offense is terrible, and losing 3-2 or 12-1 makes no difference.
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This is a straight up embarassment. I don’t know if Gabe was sending VV a message, but he gave up 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings. I remember Pivetta getting yanked when he gave up 6 in 1 inning against the Nats. VV had such a good May (2.30 ERA) that you hope that this is a blip. But you wonder how many more chances VV will get when Enyel De Los Santos has a 1.63 ERA at Lehigh.
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And VVs ERA is 4.95….it’s not that high by accident. If he’s been really good in May, he’s been really bad in April and last night. Consistency is a must for a SP to stay a SP.
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I am surprised that there isn’t more commentary on the “Kingery gets SS and JP and Franco platoon” news. I am a big Kingery fan. He still belonged in AAA to start the season. We had counted JP as a future star for what seemed like a long time, but his bat just does not play well at 3B. He needs to play a lot of SS unless the team has already given up on him. I can’t believe that they have.
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JP at 3b today vs LHP!! Wow, Franco must already have one foot out the door. Unless Crawford’s numbers against Suter are good (if he has any).
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8mark … It’s very possible that Kingery and Crawford are being “showcased” for a possible trade.
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Mike, I posted yesterday that I seriously doubt either would be included for a rental, especially Kingery. I would be surprised if they were unless the most unlikely thing happened which is MM agreeing to a LTC.
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If Kingery and Crawford are showcased for a trade, then Franco’s trade value took a massive hit.
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That has to be a slap to the face to Franco considering that Kapler said that Franco was going to get ABs against lefties. Not only that, in an interview, Kapler says that even though Franco is in a platoon, Kapler hasn’t given up on him. What a difference 24 hours makes.
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JP bat might not be a 3rd base bat .
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I’d be surprised if Kingery or Crawford among others isn’t included in a trade for Machado. Problem solved.
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Wawa Mike … you’re going to be surprised.
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Rhys got activated, Cozens to the DL. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we need Rhys’ bat in the lineup!
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Again in the two hole.
I sure hope when Machado arrives next month, they bat Hoskins in the 4-hole behind Machado at 3.
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You put Santana in the 4 hole just more experienced there . Hoskins first 100 at bats in the Majors 18 homeruns. Since then 6 homeruns in 286 at bats . The league has adjusted Hoskins just has to adjust back if he can. He’s been invited rushed too nobody in AAA to help. You really don’t want Hoskins banging into a Wall or diving hard into the ground.
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Hoskins has been in the 4-hole since his sophomore year at Sac State.
Five years and then all of a sudden Gabe has him up in the 2-hole.
Further, he has adjusted at every level….I believe he will still adjust in the majors.
He will never be a .300 hitter, but he should easily slash at a minimum, 275/375/475
BTW…Santana in the 5-hole has better metrics than in any other spot in the lineup.
…..282/.371/.503
In the 4-hole…………230/.358/.409
In the 2-hole…………180/.326/.327
In the 7-hole………….316/.426/.561 …(but only 68 career PAs) .
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I never said he couldnt just saying Santana who also is a switch hitter . Until Hoskins k % slows down and avg comes up too around .250 . Before his injury Hoskins was in a bad slump . I always thought Hoskins is more like .250 / .350/ .450 slash with about 30 homers about 100 RBIs for a couple of yrs. Which isnt bad at first much Better in LF.
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“When” – LOL. Yeah, it’s a 100 percent sure thing. Give me a break.
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When……8 July….but don’t hold me to the hour and minute! 🙂
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Brett Suter the Brewers so avg FB 87 mph.
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SIXTO is hurt just read it
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rocco…sorry, but Kirsten’s Game Notes does not have that.
Click to access Game_Notes.pdf
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Try Rocco notes. I will give you the link
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Got it now rooco…elbow inflammation.
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Yes it’s on CBS sports too not a horrible thing . Sixto still young so give it a little time.
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on the DL. Resting him for a bit. Found nothing serious, I hope that is true. Keep our fingers crossed! He was just about to go to Reading.
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Guessing Rosso gets promoted from Lakewood to Clearwater.
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Safe on Catcher’s Interference, BB, HBP, bases loaded without a hit. Garcia relieves Arrieta, K, then Salami. 3-2 lead turns into 6-3 deficit. .500 is rapidly approaching. June can easily become a disaster. What was the June in ’97? 4-22? This has to be better, right?
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It’s like the bad news bears out there. Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
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With the Phillies sliding now maybe the Manny Machado trade talks will slow down as we are not contenders right now.
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Mr.Kapler has burned his bullpen out with his analytical process. I never liked him as our manager so maybe Klentak can go with him.
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This bullpen is garbage. Outside of Seranthony, who wasn’t even there when the season started, nobody can be counted on for anything these days.
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OMG, I wrote this before Adam Morgan imploded. I’m at a loss right now…
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I don’t think we need to worry about All Star bids. It will be Nola and no one.
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we have a great chance to draft number one next three years
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Phillies 1-7 in June.
Nineteen more games.
If they can manage to win 14 of the next 19 and finish June at 15-12, they have a reasonable chance of reaching the 90 mark
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At Milwaukee next wknd.
Then St Louis here for 3.
Then at Nats for 3.
Then NYY here for 3.
Then Nats here for 4.
Brutal. We could be 12 games out by July 1st.
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Nats just lost Strausberg there Bp is worse then ours. The Yanks lost Tanaka so every team is hurting a bit. The Phillies will make a move soon not Machado but another hitter.
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If Strasburg needs any procedure on his shoulder, it could be devastating.
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Nats don’t have much in pitchers as far as there sys goes. The Nats are going to have out score everyone like last yr .
Even the Yanks are getting real thin in SP . However the Yanks , Boston, Braves , ,Houston , the Cubs are either in First or second all have offenses over 300 runs.the Dodgers are the other team over 300 runs scored.
Minn, Tampa Bay , even the Mets have good team era they just can’t score.
When you have 19,20 ,21 22 yr olds coming up to the big leagues and hitting the crap out of the baseball . That says alot alot about the Sp in Baseball is going down hill fast . That’s why let’s go get some more bats that can Mash .
.
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Well, the Phillies’ overall schedule in April and May was rather favorable. But, yeah, winning 14 of the next 19 with that schedule is very unlikely. As is the talk of the Phillies winning 90 games; seems like just wishful thinking to me.
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I don’t watch a lot of college baseball. I am watching tech and texas game. The home plate umpire is terrible. I wont ever take into account walks and strikeouts on a college pitcher. cause the strike zone is nuts. These umpires are taking the bats out of the hitters hands. awful.I think that’s why I am so adamant about seeing a player over stats. I Know guys love to look at stats. I like to see a player and then look at stats to judge.
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rocco……in 2018 season, there are 297 Division I collegian schools that competed.
The MLB wood bats vary in price from manufacturer. Most similar models retail from $80 to $175. And teams get huge bulk discounts though, and teams can pay $45-$60 per bat, or something in that range.Of course the average MLB team can go through an awful lot of bats.
And the bats’ wood; is either northern white ash or maple. The team that the player plays for assumes the cost of the bats, not the player. Also it’s about a 50/50 split for maple and ash bats. The more expensive maple bats are $58 each, and the ash are $45 each.
Now….what would it take for MLB to drop $10M, for them chump change, into a NCAA account to subsidize the 297 teams to use wooden bats! They can practice with their own metal bats, but in actual D1 games use wood.
Then the pros can actually get a further better idea of a hitter’s true value
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Romus the will never do that, it makes too much sense.
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Yeah…it probably also is not ‘green’ eco smart.
Plenty of maple/birch/hickory trees would need to be replanted.
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Tim plants trees for a living. It will help his company
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Wow..Tim is both a HS teacher at Penn Charter and also an arborist with his own company you say!.
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I will someday however mlb is loaded they can start own nursery . Buy some maple or White Ash trees and grow there own. Think about it MLB could make the best Wood for bats in theory . Combine wood samples form around the world . Make the perfect bat.
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Team leaders in OPS as of 6/10
Herrera .799
Hoskins .798
Man, when Doobie goes cold, he disappears.
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Except for Herrera’s GG, CF Defense there’s that.
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A few weeks ago, the announcers were talking about how extreme Odubel was at the plate: when he’s hot, there’s nobody hotter, when he’s cold, he’s ice cold. Ben Davis mentioned that Odubel needs to figure out how to go 1-4 instead of 0-4 when he gets into a funk.
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