Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #16 Prospect

Dylan Cozens  was your selection as the #15 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.

Cozens received 67 of 255 votes (26%). Ranger Suarez finished second (60, 24%), Seranthony Dominguez finished third (23, 9%), Darick Hall finished fourth (16, 6%), and Kyle Young finished fifth (15, 6%). Twenty players split the remaining 74 votes. 

Dylan Cozens was the Phillies second round pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft out of Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, AZ.

Cozens put up reasonable numbers as he moved up through the lower levels of the organization.  He displayed the type of numbers we associate with power hitters.  As his home runs increased his K rate fluctuated around 25% and his batting average settled in around .250.

Then in Clearwater in 2015, he posted a career low K rate under 20%, and a career high .282 batting average. However, his HR production dropped to five.  I found out just before his promotion to AA, that Cozens had been instructed to make better contact over hitting home runs in 2015.  Joe Jordan has referenced this during interviews since.

You can see in the chart below his progression during his career.  He showed in Clearwater that he can hit for average but at a severe cost to his power.  His lower K rate also brought along a career low BB rate.

When unleashed in AA in 2016, Cozens only lost .006 in batting average but added .180 to his SLG, .200 to his OPS, cut his AB per HR from 79 to 15, and more than doubled his previous high in run production.

Cozens hit 27 home runs in 2017 in Lehigh Valley.  But his overall production took a big hit. Enough of a hit that he wasn’t brought up to Philadelphia when rosters expanded in September.

Year/Age/Dif/Lev    PA    HR    RBI    BB    SO       BA/OBP/SLG/OPS          BB%            K%        PA/HR
2012/18/-1.7/Rk    183      5       24     21     44      .255/.341/.441/.782   11.48%     24.04%         37
2013/19/-2.0/A-     277      9       35      28     64     .265/.343/.469/.812   10.11%     23.10%          31
2014/20/-1.5/A       556   16       62      40   147     .248/.303/.415/.717      7.19%     26.44%         35
2015/21/-1.7/A+    397      5       46      26      79    .282/.335/.411/.746      6.55%     19.90%         79
2016/22/-2.3/AA    586   40    125      61    186    .276/.350/.591/.941   10.41%     31.74%         15       2017/23/-3.7/AAA 542   27      75       58    194    .210/.301/.418/.719   10.70%    35.79%          20

There has been mounting concern regarding Cozens’ strike out rate (and lefty/righty splits).  He proved he was able to command the strike zone in Clearwater.  His inability to control his penchant to swing for the long ball has brought his career to its nadir.  If he doesn’t heed the instruction he receives, he’ll likely be a platoon player at best or playing for another organization’s AAA team next year.

Next up is your selection for the #16 prospect in the organization with Harold Arauz, Brayan Gonzalez, and Greg Picket added to the poll.  These are the last players I’m adding to the poll.  No other players got enough support from an earlier poll to be considered.

 

2018 Readers’ Poll, so far –

  1. Sixto Sanchez
  2. Scott Kingery
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Jhailyn Ortiz
  5. Jorge Alfaro
  6. Adam Haseley
  7. Adonis Medina
  8. Franklyn Kilome
  9. Mickey Moniak
  10. JoJo Romero
  11. Roman Quinn
  12. Enyel De Los Santos
  13. Cornelius Randolph
  14. Tom Eshelman
  15. Dylan Cozens

 

21 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #16 Prospect

  1. If I decided to stop voting until Morales was added to the poll, I’d be shut out for the rest of the poll.

    Darick Hall is my pick here. He’s a power hitter in the mold of Cozens. Hall was 21 in LKW this year. Cozens was 20, when he played in LKW. Hall had 27 HRs, 96 RBIs and a .272/.340/.533/.872. Cozens had 16 HRs, 62 RBIs and a .248/.303/.415/.717. The year could make all the difference but Hall has a better plate discipline. Everyone on this site thought Hall should have been promoted to CLW by mid-season. It would have made for better comps but we have to work with what we have. Hall is a 1B and Cozens in still a very decent RF’er. So that gives Cozens an edge from that standpoint. If we match Hall to Hoskins in LKW, then Rhys was 22 and played half a season there. He hit 9 HRs and had 51 RBIs. He hit .322/.397/.525/.922 so Hall wasn’t very close to that.

    Hall is a promising power bat, who could end the year in Reading. That is a place I’d like to see Hall for a season. We’ll see if Hall gets exposed by better pitching as he moves up. for now, I’m high on the guy.

  2. I went back and looked at the initial poll and Morales was listed with the MLB top 30 and must have been left off by mistake. He should have been added a while ago.

    1. I sent an email to Jim, a week or so ago, requesting Morales be put on the list. I also mentioned it in the comments section for a while now. I remember Jim saying he wasn’t going to put anyone on the list because of people requesting it in the comments section, so I sent an email. The kid got a pretty big bonus and had a decent 17 yo season in the GCL. I thought he deserved to be in the top 30. When I send my top 30 to Jim, I’ll include Morales in my top 15.

      1. I personally don’t have Morales ranked this high, but he has tremendous upside, and I would certainly find it reasonable for him to be added to the list of poll options.

        1. By the way, I’m Spencer Howard here. I think he has breakout potential as a starter.

          Morales is also Top 20 for me. He has the size at 6’4” that many of our LA prospects lack and as the top Venezuelan pitcher in the 2016 int’l class, he’s a top 300 MLB prospect. Even in a system as deep as the Phillies, Morales is a Top 30 talent

          1. Agreed on Spencer. I think he has big, big breakout potential. That was a very fine pick from my perspective.

    2. You are correct. Morales was on the list at #30, but dropped off when Gutierrez was added to the list when his signing became official. That would explain how he was referenced in the initial poll but excluded in the later ones.

        1. But, since we made the exception for JD Hammer, who was also pushed off the MLB top 30, we should also for Morales.

    3. Yeah, good catch. He didn’t get enough support from the earlier poll because he wasn’t on it, since he was in MLB’s top 30 at the time.

  3. My pick for #16 is Drew Anderson. He got a sniff of the major leagues this past year and it should give him an idea of what to work on this year. If he improves with this knowledge we may very well see him in the majors again. His proximity makes him my pick at this number.

      1. Nick Fanti need to show better stuff (velocity and movement) otherwise, he might end up like Brandon Leibrandt. A LHP that can get things done but with average stuff across the board other than an above average command. This might apply to Kyle Young too.

        Ranger, despite of very good results was just another prospect until he saw an uptick in velocity while pitching well at higher level. Both Fanti and Young are still far behind. Fanti and Young are #28 and #32, respectively, in my rankings.

        1. I made my prospect list and went about 70 guys deep, then I realized Fanti wasn’t on it. He should probably be in there somewhere but I feel like a great outcome for him would be Hoby Milner; similar size and stuff. It’s just unfortunate that he doesn’t really have any projection left.

  4. I’m voting Suarez again, yes he’s very good. He’s only a tick behind JoJo in ability. I’m ok with Cozens though because his upside is very high even if the % likelihood that he reaches that ceiling is low. I also like Anderson and Morales as well as Brito and Gamboa. I have Hall lower but you’re causing me to rethink it. That’s the group of names in this upcoming group. Lots of talent for this late in the list.

  5. I voted for Ranger Suarez here with Anderson, Morales, Dominguez, Gamboa and Brito as the next top remaining prospects.

    I love lefty’s with a good CU (hello Cole Hamels) and Ranger owned one of the best CUs in the farm. I expect to see Ranger more in REA this year and I will be looking closely at his FB and SL because based on what i read and hear, both FB and SL are still average.

    Ranger command (a pitchers ability that I’m really high on) all his pitches very well (career WHIP = 0.99 and BB/9 = 1.8) and with a decent swing and miss ability (K/9 = 8.1 and K/BB = 4.4).

  6. I have Cozens down at #39 but I’m not surprised to see that Cozens still got a lot of support due to his power potential. Ortiz (my #5) and Cozens (my #39) have the same profile but what separates them is the ability to hit. Ortiz, despite of being 2-3 yrs younger, have shown better ISO than Cozens in ROK and A-Short while displaying ability to make contact and good eye and hand coordination.

    I will be super optimistic and look forward to see Cozens do an Aaron Judge in the red pin stripes. But for my prospect ranking, the ability to hit risk is just too big to be ignored.

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