128 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of January 7, 2018”

1. Not sure what to make of the Franco incident. I guess I’d be more disappointed if his own development as a player was already on the uptick. In any case, it only throws more shadows on him as a building block moving forward. Yes he has talent and yes he’s young enough to move the needle. But he’s been a big leaguer long enough to know you don’t party until 6am with a 4 pm game looming. Stupid is as stupid does.

   We’ve other options for 3b to explore. I suggest we find another. Otherwise, Franco has left himself virtually no room for error from here on, at least in the eyes of the organization.

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   1. If it’s an isolated incident, it’s probably no big deal. Cole Hamels broke his hand outside a Clearwater bar in January of 2005. He didn’t join the Threshers until June and was shut down in July at Reading later that season. He turned out okay.

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      1. That’s true, Jim. I have to confess a slight pre-existing bias against Franco due to what I deem a lack in baseball acumen. Take my more critical comments with a grain of salt.

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      2. Jim according to some, The manager made a trip to see him, to tell him he had to get into baseball shape. I am the biggest supporter of this kid, and this is one of the reason I never take a lot of stock in minor league numbers. You cant measure heart and desire. I Don’t see the same kid now, I saw in the minors. maybe money got to him or he just isn’t good enough. Which I don’t believe he had so much going for him,

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   2. Wow. Way to blow that out of proportion man.

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2. I think Franco should get the first shot but I sure hope Kingery or Cesar can play 3B if and when Franco struggles again. His maturity and desire are a big question mark at this point. However, in his defense, I’m sure he could swing and miss at a pitch 4 feet out of the strike zone, whether he was well rested or out partying all night….

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3. Maikel starting out the the New Year in a rather unauspicious way.
   Hope this is not a forebear of things to come.

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4. Don’t think the Franco “issue” means anything. He comes into ST as the incumbent and the favorite to open the season at the position. How he performs in 2018 will determine how aggressive the Phillies will be in finding his replacement.

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   1. Looks like Franco is up to meeting the Mickey Mantle standard of early morning training. As such, I wouldn’t get too tough on him for this incident, though I prefer it had not happened and hope he brings more maturity and sense of purpose to camp.

      As for options, they are Manny Machado, Manny Machado and Manny Machado. Maybe JP, though without Galvis, he’s the shortstop.

      Kingery’s arm is fringy. Hernandez is not a third basemen.

      So, if Franco isn’t going to make it, we might have to look outside the organization for a solid MLB first-division regular.

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      1. Options: Machado, Donaldson, all others irrelevant.

         I liked Moustakas more a few months ago but his stock is as low as his OBP. Not a bad one yr hold down but the FO will most likely pass on him.

         Kingery on a short term basis might be ok but his future is at 2b. Cesar is a 2b only.

         I think Walding and Middlebrooks get a long look this spring but it all boils down to

         a) how Franco starts and
         b) the status of Manny and Josh by season’s end.

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5. I’d rather know how well/bad he’s performing.

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6. At some point does Damek Tomsha get a look? He’ll be 26 coming into this season he holds a 370 OBP and 787 OPS

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   1. Franco is my guy until he’s not. I think new coaches should get a crack at him. I still think he’s just a small adjustment away from being a really good MLB player.

      Middlebrooks stinks IMO I guess he is fine for depth at AAA and Walding has always been intriguing with his power potential his lefty splits actually aren’t that bad but the overall package doesn’t speak to an MLB player.

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   2. DMAR,

      Good thought. I like Tomscha and he may deserve to get the same late-age shot that Stassi got last year if Franco doesn’t cut it.

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      1. If he continues to have the succes he showed at Reading last year, someone will notice. He certainly fits the bill the organization likes with regards to controlling the strike zone. He walked 11 times and struck out 18 times in 175 Reading plate appearances.

         In Tomscha’s 4-year career, he has walked 136 times (6.3%)and struck out 216 times (13.8%) in 1568 plate appearances. However, his best HR year was the 11 he hit last year (7 in Clearwater, 4 in Reading). And his best SLG and OPS were also last year (.439 and .825).

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7. Four Phillies Projected Super Two as calculated by MLBTR.
   The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated MLB service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the CBA).
   Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
   Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
   Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
   Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

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8. Phillies have announced their new radio away team …LA will only do home games.
   Play-by-play guy Scott Franzke is back and now added will be a rotation of three former Phillies: Kevin Frandsen, Kevin Stocker, and Kevin Jordan.

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   1. Romus, let’s hope the play on the field compensates for those vanilla voices. I heard each of them last season and it wasn’t must listen radio. Franzke might get a hernia from carrying them.

      On a more intriguing note – according to Todd Z, the Phillies’ interest in Yelich is legit. Coming from Zolecki (who seldom suggests anything unless he’s heard rumblings himself) that isn’t mere speculation.

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      1. Yelich will require a large return.
         Will the Phillies and Matty K. be ready to ante up maybe three of their top ten prospects for Yelich?
         I think that will be the asking price from Hill and Jeter.

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         1. It might, Romus, but Jeter & co. may settle for:
            Haseley or Moniak,
            Kilome or Medina,
            and from the big club – VV, CeHe and/or Nick Williams (whom I’m hearing our brass isn’t that high on).

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            1. That could be possible
               And Cesar is a big piece analytically…he justs does not have the reputation around the baseball circles yet.

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               1. Romus, my sense is a trade is brewing (albeit painfully slowly) that would involve acquiring a SP along with Yelich. If it’s a salary dump like Chen, that might determine what level of FA arm they pursue.

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            2. Usually we all give up too little in our hypothetical trades with other teams. However, Derek Jeter has shown on three occasions to get less than substantial returns on big assets. So you never know. And I’m sure the 28 other teams are well aware of this as well.

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         2. Why did the Marlins not use the same strategy with Ozuna?

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      2. Kevin Stocker was good. He is the one with announcing experience. I’m sure Franzke and Jackson had some input.

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   2. Scott and the Kevins – sounds like a 50s “doo wop” group.

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9. January 9th and the top story of the day is about the radio announcers. Matt, you’re killing me.

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10. Tim Kelly of Sports Talk Philly posted a piece dated 1/4 on projected opening day starting lineups based on statistical analysis, weighted mainly by OPS. One site called Steamers has the following derived from its top 30 lineups:

    1 Carlos Santana
    2 Rhys Hoskins
    3 JP Crawford or Cesar Hernandez
    4 Nick Williams
    5 Maikel Franco
    6 Jorge Alfaro
    7 Odubel Herrera
    8 Aaron Nola
    9 Cesar Hernandez or JP Crawford

    I doubt there will be one basic lineup for Kapler, but these new wrinkles will provide interesting discussion.

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    1. I can assure you this won’t be the lineup. If Cesar is here, he’s leading off. They’ll probably tinker with Santana in the 2 hole, the 3 hole, and maybe even the 4 hole. Hoskins will be 3 or 4.
       Of interest, there was s good article on what it would take to get Yelich from different teams. From the Phils, it was noted as Alfaro, Williams, and Moniak. Thoughts?

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       1. I think I would pull the trigger on that trade.
          But my understanding is that Jeter/Hill and the Marlins want some pitching in any deal that involved either or both Yelich or Realmuto.

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          1. I would see if they would take Kilome or Medina (or for that matter any one pitcher they want except Nola or Sixto), ilo of Moniak.
             I think they would want Alf , then they could move Realmuto for a large return.
             Williams more or less replaces Yelich somewhere in their OF.

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    2. If this happens …. 🤯

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11. I saw an interesting trade proposal this morning that got me thinking. It’s not a rumor or anything, but one writers idea of what it would take to get Yelich. He proposed Williams, Alfaro, and Moniak for Yelich. First of all, I don’t think that’s enough to give up. Second, it doesn’t relieve the outfield logjam, and it leaves us with Rupp/Knapp behind the plate. If the Phillies were to go after Realmuto instead, they could do the deal by offering Herrera, Alfaro, Moniak and a prospect. Both the outfield and catching problems are solved, and all we need is a starting pitcher. Doesn’t this make more sense than trading for Yelich? I know that nobody wants to trade Herrera, but he has a lot of value for a low price.

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    1. Williams, Alfaro and Moniak for Yelich, by itself is a perfectly fair trade, but it squeezes out Altherr or Odubel, which is fine if it’s for a true star, but I don’t think Yelich is a star yet and I’m not sure he’s going to become a star (although it’s possible). I view Yelich as a slightly enhanced version of Von Hayes – a very good player, but I don’t know why I’d rearrange everything else for him unless you’ve got some really good side deals also set up for the guys who have to move. And I’m not being critical of him – he truly is a very good player and should be for some time.

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       1. Also, I look at an outfield of Hoskins, Odubel and Altherr and think it’s going to be pretty good and Yelich isn’t that big of an upgrade. Why not use the other assets to address areas of weakness instead?

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12. The stove needs to heat up. I was hoping the Phillies would swing a deal for a pitcher. These teams just want too much. I’m sure the Phillies are just as guilty of asking too much for CeHe.

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13. Maybe the Phillies should look into signing a pitcher on a one year deal. Target a good one, and overpay, overpay, overpay.

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    1. If some of these top tier pitchers don’t sign soon, they may have to settle for a one year deal.

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       1. According to this report the Phillies may take a cursory look into Cobb….lose the third rounder, but he could be worth it.
          http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=496410

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          1. I’d like to have Cobb I’d go 4/$64 and give him one of those trade bonus clauses that are in vogue right now. Lynn too it makes so much sense right now sure up 3 spots in the rotation and then let VV and the other guys compete for the 4 and 5 spots.

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             1. If it comes down to the highest bidder, I would even go higher, up to $18M AAV for 4 years and mutual option vs club on the 5th year.
                Trade bonus clauses?
                Not sure what that is.

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                1. Haha the Rockies just gave Wade Davis a clause that pays him $1MM if they trade him before his contract ends.

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                2. Thanks DMAR for that…..one thing baseball is ahead of in regars to most professional sports, are contracting innovations. They may take forever for other on the field changes, but they do move fast on financial contracting modifications.

                   And yeah, agree….add that clause to it also…can’t hurt.

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             2. Cobb seems to be OK with the Chatwood contract until the agent stops him since he can get more.

                I will offer Cobb a 5-yr/$82M with 3-yr base contract of $50M ($16/yr + $2M singing bonus) and 2 options years – one team and one mutual without a “no-trade” clause but with $1-2M bonus if traded within the 3 base years.

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          2. I would be happy with Cobb at 4 years @ $75M, perhaps an added option year. I don’t care about losing a draft pick. We’ve already got more than enough to try and figure out where they’re all the going to be assigned, 6-man rotations and what not.

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    2. Wawa Mike is a great screen name. But pitchers coming off a healthy season don’t sign 1 year pillow contracts assuming you are thinking an Arrieta or a Darvish or a Lynn or Cobb are who you’re thinking of.

       Hellboy might do it but I think they need to aim higher

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14. I think an OF of Herrera and Hoskins playing everyday, with a platoon of Altherr and Williams, and a 5th OF of Quinn if healthy will be fine. The reality is that Quinn and Altherr are automatic health risks, Williams is a performance risk in my opinion, and Hoskins can always play 1B every once in a while. Now if they can move Williams or Altherr as part of a package for the right starting pitcher, I’m ok with that, but I think the OF logjam we all talk about will likely work itself out without needing to make a trade.

    The guys I would not trade from the OF mix include Hoskins (for obvious reasons), Herrera (I think with Santana on board, we could see a leap forward in his maturity and development), Quinn (no trade value right now, so might as well see if he can stay healthy), and Altherr (I think he could have a breakout season, like Werth did about a decade ago). The guy I would be open to moving is Williams. I really think he is more likely to regress going forward and best case, perform at the level he performed last year. I hope I’m wrong but he would be the one guy I’d move if I was making the call.

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    1. Altherr seems to be getting a rep on being injury prone, akin to Roman Quinn.
       However in his last 7 years of full season ball, (minors and majors) he has played in 75% of the maximum number of games alloted (799 of 1054) that he would be eligible to play.
       The last two years…the broken wrist in ’16 out of ST, and then the quad issue last year, were really two of his longest absences.
       Now he is aging and that has to be taken into consideration….but not sure it is fair to label him as an injury prone player, like Roman Quinn or past prospect Kelly Dugan.

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15. Phillies has been quick lately. Can anybody recognize the 9 prospects in this picture with Kapler during the Annual Prospect Education Program in CBP?

    Not sure if i recognize all of them but here’s my take:

    1) Cole Irvin
    2) JD Hammer
    3) JoJo Romero
    4) Enyel delos Santos
    5) Tom eshelman

    6) Ranger Suarez
    7) Franklyn Kilome
    8) sixto Sanchez
    9) Jose Taveras

    http://bleacherreport.com/philadelphia-phillies

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    1. I’m actually not sure who is the prospect that’s 2nd from the left, but definitely not JD Hammer. Looks familiar though….

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       1. Its Hammer.

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    2. It’s ususlly the AA and AAA prospects who haven’t been there. It’s telling that Sanchez is there already as he’ll still be at high A this year.

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    3. KuKo…..number one is Tom Eshelman…..number 5 is Cole…number 8 is Seranthony D. Sixto is not here.

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16. Why does Williams have to be the odd man out in the OF? He has stayed healthy and minus 2016, he has been a solid player. Maybe they sell high on AA and his potential. He, like Quinn, can’t stay healthy.

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    1. I’d prefer to trade Herrera to get more in return (especially a SP) but Williams comes much cheaper and with more power and a fairly high ceiling. AA would appeal more to a contending team as a missing piece, but his injury history gives some people pause.

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17. Our old friend Vanimal gets a Minor League deal with the Reds. Good luck to him.

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    1. Note the report that Franco has been asked to stop playing winter ball to get ready for spring training. I wonder if that’s a subtle point following his one-day suspension.

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       1. Frank…yes I think it could be, and I guess the Phillies want him to concentrate even harder in prepping these next 40 or so days before he reports to Clearwater.
          This is more or less a probation year for Maikel.

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       2. I didn’t hear the whole story. But it seems Franco was partying during the playoffs, I Don’t have all the facts, so it might just be a bad rumor. but if true very disappointing, following his meeting with new manager over his fitness for next year.

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          1. rocco…no rumor , there is a pix of him holding the drink with a few teammates around him….at 6AM Sunday morning in the club.
             I understand the game was scheduled for later that day.
             I guess he figured he still had enough time for some power ZZZZs before game time.
             He goofed up.
             I imagine if he were 18 or 19 years old, there could be a little more leniency,

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18. I’m really tired of waiting for things to start shaking out. Let’s go already!

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19. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com proposed Williams, Alfaro and Moniak for Yelich. I say no go unless the deal was expanded to include Realmuto. Miami would most certainly want at least one young arm as well.

    Then you trade Cesar to Milwaukee for a package of their better prospects.

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    1. Then Doobie for Duffy, sign Cobb and we’re set for spring training.

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       1. That is a reasonable plan….and pretty simple.

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    2. 1) Nick, Alfaro and Randolph (not Moniak) to MIA for Yelich

       2) Cesar & Neris to LAD for Kemp’s contract, Alvarez, White, Heredia & Jimenez

       3) Doobie and Vinny to TEX for Hamels, Ragans, Kyle Cody and AJ Alexy

       4) Rupp to any team for a truck of Cowboys jerseys and burn them

       5) Sign C Lucroy, SP Cobb and SP Darvish.

       Starters: Darvish, Hamels, Nola, Cobb and Eickhoff

       Batters: 2B Kingery, CF Yelich, 1B Santana, LF Hoskins, RF Altherr, SS JPC, 3B Franco, C Lucroy

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       1. KuKo, I assume Kemp would be DFA’d?
          Wow! A very compelling and aggressive series of transactions. Not sure all that could happen in short order, and with Klentak at the controls. But it’s quite a roster, worth 85-90 wins and a wild card berth.

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       2. KuKo…..seriously, do you really think Matty K. can multi-task all that movement in the next few weeks?
          There is roughly six weeks left until camp opens ..not counting pitchers and catchers report dates, and they want a majority of rosters and camp invitees all in order a few weeks before then.

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          1. @romus – nah! that’s why my name is not Matt Klentak. If MK can do at least #4, I’ll be happy. But i don’t think Klentak has the vision and creativity to pull out any trades like that.

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             1. KuKo…signing Santana was a little out of the ordinary and unexpected. But overall, the moves that would appear to make some sense, he seems to dwell too long on and deliberates for an extended period of time, then will at times just back off.
                The 2016 Hellickson situation reminds of that.

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       3. It will never happen of course but none of the moves seem unreasonable. Kemp would be kept btw not released and Altherr will play CF if Doubie is moved. The Yelich move could happen. If it does, the Lucroy move could happen unless Realmuto were added to the deal, and we added Medina. Cesar to the Dodgers could happen too. I think Arrieta is more likely than Darvish and I think Cobb will get too much money for what he is.

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       4. I really like these moves. The only moves I would change would be to keep Rupp and sign Montero at C. Montero is one of the best framers in the league. Defense and intangibles should be valued highly at C. I’d almost sign Ruiz again even.

          Sign Andre Ethier (300/380/500 vs R) to platoon with Alther.

          Can they really get all them prospects in the Hamels and Kemp deals? Kemp would need to be dfa’d. I would want Quinn or even Nava to be 5th outfielder.

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    3. Williams, Alfaro and Moniak for Yelich and Realmuto? Why on earth would Miami do that trade? It’s so crazy lopsided in favor of the Phillies.

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       1. I believe it was just for Yelich. I suggested adding Medina to get Realmuto

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20. Did MLB shutdown!No transactions Jan.1 thru 9.Last year there were 18 during this period..

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21. Cole to the Astros. Have not seen the return.

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    1. Pump the brakes on that one. Still could happen but not close yet. Jon Heyman also says, as of last night, another team had been in on Cole talks and it’s NOT the Yankees. Pirates keeping options open.

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       1. I would totally expect the Phils to talk to them but the Phils are not offering Sixto, Kingery or JP. A package of Cesar, an OF and Medina or Kilome isn’t enough from the Pirates view and it’s a lot from our view for only two years of Cole.

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22. Derek Fisher’s name is floating as one of the names with potential Kyle Tucker and/or Forrest Whitley.

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23. Rupp and Phils avoid arbitration. Could a trade involving a C be in the works?

    Castro wants out of Miami. We could oblige by including Cesar in an expanded deal for Yelich and subsequently flipping Starlin before Jetpax gets called up.

    Anyway, with all this inactivity, I can just hear all the collusion allegations against MLB as the weeks leading up to spring training unfold. I’m no conspiracy theorist but this silence is both deafening and a bit alarming.

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    1. It’s not that surprising.

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24. The Phillies have many questions about their pitching staff, and only one answer (Nola). Almost every blogger and poster has said that we need to acquire a pitcher (including myself), so that makes two starters. Based on track record (Eickhoff), and potential (Velasquez), that fills two more spots. With only one more spot to fill, where does that leave Thompson, Eflin, Lively, and Pivetta? I expect a couple of them to take a step up next year, and don’t forget that they’re being pushed by Eshelman, and a handful of other pitchers in Double A and Triple A.
    I don’t like to present a problem without supplying a possible solution. I would start the season with a six man rotation. By mid-May we should have our answer on Velasquez. By the trade deadline, we should have our answers on Lively, Pivetta, Thompson, and Eflin. If the Phillies still feel like they need a quality starter, get one at the deadline. I’d rather give up on a prospect too late, than too soon.

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    1. some of the SPs will be traded for PTBNL or cash and some will be moved to the bullpen. This is where Klentak’s lack of creativity will hurt the Phillies because they might force to DFA or give up some SPs without maximizing their value.

       Currently, the Phils have 24 pitchers in the 40-man and at least half of that are SPs – so we are talking of at least 7 SPs to start in the upper minors and join Eshelman, Irvin, Leibrandt, Wags, Viza. Sixto, JoJo and Edgar Garcia might join that mix too.

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25. There going with an 8 man bullpen apparently;ruling out a 6 man rotation.

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26. Sorry Charlie – I just always wanted to say that. Anyway, nothing is written in stone. If nothing else, the Phillies have preached flexibility all winter. Maybe they decide on Velasquez during Spring training. Maybe the pitcher they sign is able to go 7 innings a start, and they don’t need the 8th arm in the pen. A lot can happen, and it will happen soon.

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    1. Agreed, Wawa. This pitching staff will be a fluid situation throughout the season. A few of the young arms may be moved at some point. A 5-man rotation is likely for the first half, maybe up until the end of July. Then a 6-man rotation (possibly shared by 8 or 9 pitchers including Eshelman, VV, Eflin, etc., a couple shut down with innings limits – you all know the narrative) will be employed through August and September….AND THEN THE PLAYOFFS!!! (I couldn’t resist)

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27. The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.
    Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season.

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28. Jays sign Donaldson 1 yr $23M. What an overpay. Missed 49 games last year.

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    1. I guess he broke Ryan Howard’s arb payout from a decade ago.

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    2. It is absolutely an UNDERPAY. Donaldson has been an elite player for the better part of 5 years. He’s worth every cent and more.

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       1. And, by the way, if the Phillies end up signing Donaldson to a 4 or 5-year deal after the season is over, few will be happier than I will be. The line-up with the addition of Donaldson – wow!

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          1. And while there will be age concerns with Donaldson, those concerns will most likely result in a discounted amount paid ($27 million or so and not $35 million) and a shorter contract (4-6 years instead of 8-12, plus an opt out clause, for Machado), which would work for the Phillies.

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             1. That will be his age33 season in 2019.
                So it could be a good 3/4 years before he starts losing it.

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29. They overpaid on a AAV basis but for a one year deal, it’s not bad…

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30. Machado has not settled yet, and what will he deserve? $25 Million? But, I know the rules are different for Arbitration. Doesn’t Donaldson’s $ act as a barometer? The projections on Machado are about $17.5 Million. Something doesn’t seem right. Are they not both on their last year of Arbitration? Or, is a settlement that another team made with their player not a benchmark?

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    1. Just in: Machado and O’s settled for $16M for ’18.

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31. Just in: according to Todd Z, Cesar Hernandez and Phils settle at $5.1M, so there are no remaining arbitration cases left for them organization.

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32. Can someone explain this to me? They are both on the last year of Arbitration, and Machado is better. No disrespect towards Donaldson, because I would love to have him. But, one gets $23M and the other $16M?

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    1. I get your point, Matt. But these deals are negotiated in context to the respective organization’s trajectory, Baltimore’s being on the decline without hope of re-signing MM, plus he might be concerned that the arbiter weighs his underwhelming performance early in ’17 more than his overall body of work. Toronto, OTOH, may have hope to re-sign Donaldson next winter, so why not grease the skids. When does comparing a 25 year old with a 32 year old bear any logic?

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    2. matt13…Machado and his agent had to agree…or else it goes to the Feb 1st hearings with an arbitrator.
       Perhaps age also factors into the final figure….Donakdson has less years left to accrue more wages.

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    3. Machado isn’t better though. Donaldson has more fWAR and a higher wRC+ in each of the last five seasons, plus he won an MVP award.

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    4. According to CBS Sports:
       “Josh Donaldson agreed to an arbitration record $23M 2018 That is the largest salary ever given to a player on a one-year contract in his years of arbitration eligibility. Donaldson was arbitration-eligible for the final time and will become a free agent following this season. It is worth noting Donaldson is a Super Two who went through arbitration four times rather than the usual three. That increased his overall earning potential and contributed to his record salary, as did his overall excellence and 2015 MVP award”

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33. For all of us who want the Phillies to sign Yu …the following, according to YES broadcaster Michael Kay, the Yankees offered Darvish a 7-year, $160 million contract….and he has not budged yet.

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34. Thanks Romus, That explains some of the disparity between the 2 contracts. Maybe Franco has his break out year, and we are not going to need either Machado or Donaldson? That would be be quite a bonus! On Darvish, first he denied the Yankees offer, and then he said he got one but the reported terms were incorrect. He is alleged to have 6 offers on the table. I don’t think any are from us. It may be that our SP acquisition is named Garcia or Vargas.

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    1. matt13…I think the Dodgers may want to try to get him back in the worst way.
       He would at least, in that case be living in the same city as his buddy Ohtani..

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    2. matt13…and on Franco…….if he ends up with a 3.5 to 5WAR season…..Klentak will need to make a hard decision….go after Machado or Donaldson or hope Franco has turned the corner to some sort of stardom.
       Personally…i would sign either Machado/Donaldson and on the same day trade Franco to that specific team that lost one of those guys at a high value return..

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       1. I think it really would depend on a whole host of factors including how you project him going forward and what the trade return would be. All of the decisions are highly fact-specific.

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          1. Granted….by future projections, if in fact he does well in 2018, say with a high WAR, will be very limited in scope. The two questions to be asked would be….was it a fluke year or is it sustainable for the future? And there is an element of risk in guesses, because that is what it truly is, there are no crystal balls, to both those questions.
             As for value….IMO, I would go for a pitching prospect, can even be an A ball pitcher, significant more int’l money and also in Baltimore’s case, their CBA pick.
             Might appear to be an under sale, but does keep the pipeline flowing at the beginning.
             Plus the need is satisfied with either Donaldson or machado on the big club.

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35. Cole trade to Houston has been finalized. Four prospects go to Pittsburgh. Should open up the market a little. One more club off Darvish’s list.
    With NYYs generous offer to him as reported earlier, I’d offer him 4 years at $120M max, front loaded, with a 5th year option.

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    1. I’m shocked the Yankees couldn’t/wouldn’t top that Astros’ package.

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36. Who’s left on my shopping list:

    ✓Yelich – CeHe, Williams and any two pitchers besides Sixto or Nola

    ✓Duffy – Doobie (as main pieces if not straight up)

    ✓Cobb – FA signing for 4 yrs@ $80M/5th year option (an overpay but not prohibitive)

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    1. *CeHe would replace Castro assuming he is eventually traded per his request.

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       1. I am on board with the Yelich deal…IMO, that is a valuable package for him…..but wondering if Jeter//Hill would be interested.
          With the blow back from the fans with the Stanton, Gordon and Ozuna dealings……Jeter may need a better public perception return of prospects for Yelich and Realmuto.

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          1. I am souring on the Yelich trade big time. It’s not about the player (he’s very good – but not great), it’s all the packages people are proposing where the team gives up a lot more than value than it gets. As a philosophical matter, young rebuilding teams should not be trading a lot more value than they get almost for any player (and it’s true in other sports too) but particularly for an existing position with depth. It’s unnecessary and foolhardy. If they feel they must trade more value than they will receive, it’s better they do so for an area of weakness, but I’d prefer they not do so at all unless it’s a truly special or unique player. Yelich is neither special nor unique and that’s taking nothing away from him.

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             1. Over the past three seasons, Yelich has been good for 11.4 fWAR. Herrera has amassed 10.5 fWAR during the same span.

                Yelich is clearly the better player, but it’s not a chasm separating the two. If the Phillies had a chance to part with a boatload of prospects to replace, say, Wendell Magee with Yelich, I’d say go for it. But as Catch says in the post above, OF is an area of strength for this team.

                If you’re trading Hernandez, Williams and a few other prospects, it should go toward a pitcher.

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                1. Understood, Catch & Honcho – but WAR aside, how many times throughout the season will Yelich become a distraction with moments that make us cringe and hope they aren’t costly in a playoff run. See, that’s the difference to me. Not the players on paper. The living, breathing players who are making intuitive (or not) decisions at a critical point in a game that isn’t reflected statistically but felt by every rear end sitting and watching.

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                2. So you give up a boatload of players to get marginally better in CF and avoid a few boneheaded plays over the course of a season? While pitching still isn’t addressed?

                   Herrera isn’t exactly the headiest player in the game, but he’s no liability out there. He made a very large contribution to the team’s second-half surge last season. I really don’t understand why so many phans have a hard time accepting him.

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                3. You’re addressing pitching by trading Herrera for a good SP in Duffy and signing a decent arm in Cobb. Until the Sixto’s and Medina’s arrive, there isn’t much else to acquire, even next year’s FA pitching crop leaves much to be desired.

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                4. So yelich is so good cause his war is .9 better. I don’t know war as you guys do, but it seems to me its really close. To say yelich is that much better with those numbers , just makes no sense. You have to take into account who is hitting behind the guy how many chances does he have to win a game. I would think that matters, but what do I know

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                5. While we’re talking about non-statistical contributions, is Yelich the kind of player who can energize a lethargic lineup with a great catch, big hit, or walk that he follows with a bat flip? Odubel is that kind of player. I don’t know how much that really contributes to winning but I don’t think he ever gets credit for it from people who talk about the effects of his boneheaded plays on morale.

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                6. Doobie will need to show a little more professionalism this season, if that is the correct word to use.
                   The two ‘ mediators’ that helped smooth situations along last season after a few of his lapses, are now gone…Freddy and Blanco. And a manager who spoke the language and was very tolerant with him and able to gently prod him along is also gone .
                   So this season will be interesting to see how things transpire with the new manager.

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37. I think the Cole trade shows you more about the trade market today. The Astros got only two years of Cole, and at high arbitration salaries. The excess value only got them decent prospects, not very good ones. So how much are Yelich and Duffy worth vs their contract amounts and lengths? And what about Cesar? I just don’t think anyone is offering the trade returns being proposed by many of us, the so called experts included. Teams are not offering that much for guys making big money. It’s starting to look like no trades will be made by the Phils although I still think a FA pitcher signing is coming. I think we have a shot at Arrieta if he takes a 3 year deal with a performance option on a 4th year.
    Go Eagles! sorry….

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    1. I’d be all over signing Arrieta to a shorter deal with big AAV. He and Nola would be a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation. Add in another FA (Lynn or Cobb?) or a young starter in trade (Duffy?) and allow Pivetta, Eickhoff and Velasquez to compete for the remaining two spots, and you’ve got yourself a rotation that could do some things in 2018.

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       1. Agree with you there, Honcho.

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          1. The Phillies would have to forfeit more picks and int’l money according to the CBA and as a large market paying team if they sign Arrieta and then either Cobb or Lynn, the way I see it in the CBA….page 96.
             But there appears to be some vagueness as to the specific forfeiture.

             Click to access 5450407.pdf

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       2. Sign Arrieta…lose the third round pick in 2018
          Then sign Lynn or Cobb…lose the fourth round pick 2018 or the 2nd round pick in 2019????
          What are the rules on that?

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38. I really can’t see them doing that. Maybe Arrieta if the years drop to 3/4, but not another FA that costs a pick. I don’t see Arrieta as any more than a 10% shot. I thought there may be a trade and Pitts didn’t get much, imo, for Cole, what would the equivalent from us have been to match what Houston gave up? None of our top guys.

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    1. The longer it takes, the better are our chances for Arrieta on a 3 year deal. If we signed him, the only kind of pitcher we’d then sign would be a one year deal like Lackey or Jaime Garcia, an easily movable contract. A rotation of Arrieta, Nola, Lackey, Eickhoff, and Pivetta, with lots of young arms coming, would be pretty decent. I want VV in the pen where he could be elite. Also, with that rotation a 7 man pen would be enough.

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       1. VV will never be elite. He has no control. and gets hurt a lot

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