The Phillies won four of seven games last week. They dropped two of three against the Braves, and then went to Miami and took three of four from the Marlins. They have a 52-84 record and a .382 PCT.
The Phillies continue their road trip in New York with three against the Mets then go to DC for four against the Nationals before returning home. The Phillies play 19 of the next 26 games against East Division opponents. The exceptions are a 3-game series against the A’s and a 4-game series against the Dodgers, both at CBP. They finish the season with 16 of 19 games at CBP.
The Phillies are still 30.0 games out of first place in the East Division, and have been officially eliminated. They are 6.0 games behind the fourth place Mets. Weak divisional foes may be their biggest obstacle to the 1:1 pick in the 2018 draft. They are 20.0 games behind the Rockies in the Wild Card race, with an elimination number of seven.
Now, the race we might have a chance to win –
| Bottom 10 Teams | W | L | PCT | GB | L10 | STRK | PCT 8/20 | Net Gain/Loss |
| Philadelphia | 52 | 84 | 0.382 | – | 6-4 | W1 | 0.372 | – |
| San Francisco | 54 | 85 | 0.388 | 0.5 | 2-8 | L1 | 0.394 | 2.0 |
| Chi White Sox | 54 | 81 | 0.400 | 2.5 | 5-5 | W2 | 0.403 | 1.5 |
| Cincinnati | 58 | 79 | 0.423 | 5.5 | 5-5 | L2 | 0.420 | 0.5 |
| Detroit | 58 | 78 | 0.426 | 6.0 | 3-7 | L4 | 0.434 | 2.0 |
| Oakland | 58 | 78 | 0.426 | 6.0 | 3-7 | L6 | 0.446 | 3.5 |
| NY Mets | 58 | 78 | 0.426 | 6.0 | 3-7 | L4 | 0.438 | 2.5 |
| Atlanta | 60 | 75 | 0.444 | 8.5 | 4-6 | W1 | 0.445 | 1.0 |
| San Diego | 62 | 75 | 0.453 | 9.5 | 5-5 | W3 | 0.438 | -1.0 |
| Toronto | 63 | 74 | 0.460 | 10.5 | 3-7 | L1 | 0.469 | 2.0 |
The Giants have closed to within 0.5 games of the Phillies, and actually have one more loss. All teams but San Diego gained ground.
Key dates remaining:
- December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
- December 14th – Rule 5 Draft
Last Week’s Transactions:
- 9/3 – Phillies sent 1B Brock Stassi outright to Lehigh Valley
- 9/3 – Phillies recalled RHP Jake Thompson from Lehigh Valley
- 9/3 – Phillies recalled CF Cameron Perkins from Lehigh Valley
- 9/2 – Phillies transferred RHP Jerad Eickhoff from the 10-Day DL to the 60-Day DL. Nerve irritation in right hand
- 9/2 – Phillies claimed Kevin Siegrist off waivers from St. Louis Cardinals
- 9/2 – RHP Alberto Tirado assigned to Clearwater from Reading
- 9/2 – Clearwater placed RHP Harold Arauz on the 7-Day DL
- 9/1 – Phillies activated RHP Juan Nicasio
- 9/1 – Phillies sent OF Aaron Altherr on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
- 9/1 – Phillies sent OF Odubel Herrera on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
- 9/1 – Phillies released RHP Casey Fien
- 9/1 – RHP Edgar Garcia assigned to Reading from Clearwater (paper transaction)
- 9/1 – Clearwater activated RF Jose Pujols from the temporarily inactive list
- 8/31 – Phillies claimed RHP Juan Nicasio off waivers from Pittsburgh Pirates
- 8/31 – Phillies designated 1B Brock Stassi for assignment
- 8/31 – Phillies placed RHP Jerad Eickhoff on the 10-Day DL. Nerve irritation in hand
- 8/31 – Phillies sent CF Odubel Herrera on a rehab assignment to Reading
- 8/31 – Phillies sent OF Aaron Altherr on a rehab assignment to Reading
- 8/31 – Lehigh Valley sent RHP Mark Appel on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
- 8/31 – Reading sent RHP Miguel Nunez on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
- 8/30 – Phillies recalled RHP Ricardo Pinto from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
- 8/29 – 1B Darick Hall assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
- 8/29 – Clearwater placed RF Jose Pujols on the temporarily inactive list
- 8/29 – Luis Carrasco assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
- 8/27 – Phillies optioned RHP Drew Anderson to Lehigh Valley
- 8/27 – Phillies recalled Nick Pivetta from Lehigh Valley
- The organization’s rosters are up to date.
- The organization’s injury list is as up to date as I can make it.
- The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make it based on the
Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.
Phuture Phillies 
No 1.1 picks!! Let the Giants have “money-saving” pick. We need to get the best player available. And no, I’m not a Moniak hater. I’m just a little disappointed in a first pick’s performance. And I don’t like how people are used to rooting for failure. That’s unacceptable. I want to see these kids win some ball games and grow some confidence and culture for next season!
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I agree. At this point, our minor league system has plenty of 4th and 5th starters, Of depth . We need to use our draft picks and international money on players with high upside now. We need quality not quantity at this point.
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Thanks Jim for the work. I am one of those fans who wakes up to your reports if they were the most important news in the World.
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^^
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This off season, the biggest question is –
“Do the Phillies pursue a trade with the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton?” in light of a) yesterday’s report that their new owners have indicated that payroll will be significantly slashed and b) the many baseball “insiders” and bloggers who suggest that the Phillies are among 4 teams in position to make an effort to acquire Stanton. (St Louis, San Francisco and Texas are the other 3.)
I’m still not sure where I stand. We definitely need 2 starting pitchers, perhaps one coming via FA and the other by trade. The 3b question needs to be addressed as well. FA Mike Moustakas is my preference unless Manny Machado can be had via trade but we might overpay on both logs – prospects AND salary. Otherwise I’m fine with next year’s lineup.
If we acquire either a SP or other major piece, I’d have to think that Odubel Herrera would be highly likely to be included in a trade Then certainly a Stanton deal becomes even more sensible, should he agree to come here in the first place (or should I say the ‘last place’?) Even if he then chooses to opt out after the 2020 campaign (and we all know who might then be available in the winter of ’20-’21), it might be advantageous for the Phillies to give this rebuild a boost while attracting other FAs in the process come ’18 and onward….???
Just thinkin’ out loud here.
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I would pursue Stanton only if his cost is mainly money of which we have plenty of with essentially no payroll going into next year and a limited amount on horizon given number of 1st and 2nd year players. If the cost is significant players, I’d say no. We have to upgrade the pitching staff ( starters) as a first priority. Also, it is time to jump start the rebuild a little bit in free agency. Cant be a 70 win team going into 2018 free agent class otherwise no one will come here
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I respectfully disagree with all your points. I can think of only a handful of teams Stanton is LESS likely to accept a trade to than the Phillies. The Marlins’ interest in trading — true or otherwise — is secondary to where Stanton would accept a trade and forego his 2020 opt out. I can make a better argument for his going to San Diego, for example, than coming to Philly. Or San Francisco, the Dodgers, Seattle, New York, Texas, St. Louis and on and on. This is a site recognized for sophisticated and nuanced discussion yet treatment of the ‘Stanton to Philly’ subject is on the low end of what gets treated here — lacking in realism and self awareness.
Someone will overpay for Moustakas this off-season and I sure hope it isn’t the Phillies. He has knee issues and I question his long term suitability to remain at 3B. I’d much rather see the Phils trade for a highly-regarded 3B prospect if it is determined that Crawford’s greater value is at SS.
And I think the Phils have said in every possible way that Odubel Herrera is a part of their plan going forward. I don’t think fan sentiment has much to say on this. If the Phils were blown away with an offer, that could change but why would that happen? A team might seek to ‘buy low’ on Doobie if the Phils were intent on giving him up but there is no indication that that is the case.
Cesar Hernandez is the piece the Phils have to offer in trade if they’re interested in more than cosmetic change this off-season.
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This is the most truthful post I’ve read in a while.
For me, why people want to show El Torito the door is mind-boggling. So he’s a knucklehead and flips bats. So what? The Phillies have nobody that is CLOSE to replicating his production. I love Nicky Dubs, and I think he’s part of the future, but his defence is so bad, he’s negative WAR right now. So you can’t put him in CF. And Altherr is also negative dWar.
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If we treated abuse of statistics the way we treat abuse of children you’d be in jail. AA has played a grand total of 80 innings in CF this season, and Williams, 100. And Williams hasn’t played there much since coming over to the Phillies system.
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Abuse of statistics? What are you talking about? CF is a harder position to play than the corner OFs. Guess what, if you’re negative dWar in RF (where Williams plays the majority of the games), you’ll be worse in CF. That’s a fact. Same with Altherr in LF. But hey, don’t take my word (or the stats) word for it. Larry Bowa was interviewed about Nick Williams, and even he mentioned that Nick needed to improve his defense. And we’re not talking like they’re -0.1 either. Nick is -1.1 dWar and Altherr -0.8 dWar. They’re that bad, in a short period of time, playing the majority of their games NOT in CF.
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As for Altherr:
Here are the first half 2017 SDI figures by SABR:
Right field
Player
Jason Heyward……..7.7
Yasiel Puig…………….3.7
Jay Bruce………………3.0
Giancarlo Stanton…1.9
David Peralta………..0.8 I
Stephen Piscotty……0.8
Aaron Altherr…………0.5
Bryce Harper………….0.5
Hunter Pence…………0.1
All negatives below:
Carlos Gonzalez
Scott Schebler
Gregory Polanco
Michael Saunders
Domingo Santana
Nick Markakis
Hunter Renfroe
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For LF Altherr is a negative:
Left field
Player Team SDI
Marcell Ozuna 4.3
Hernan Perez 3.6
Adam Frazier 2.1
Gerardo Parra 2.0
Tommy Pham 1.6
Daniel Nava 1.6
Adam Duvall 1.3
Allen Cordoba 0.9
Cody Bellinger 0.6
Jayson Werth 0.4
Yoenis Cespedes 0.2
Michael Conforto -0.2
Randal Grichuk -0.3
Aaron Altherr -1.2
Ian Desmond -1.7
Kyle Schwarber -2.4
Ryan Braun L -3.3
Yasmany Tomas -4.1
Matt Kemp -7.7
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Do we really want another Ryan Howard contract?
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Earlier this year, when O’d was not hitting well, many of us predicted that he’d be around .290 by years end. He’s now like 3rd in the NL with doubles, has a modest hitting streak, plays better CF than anyone else on roster, and is the best bat flipper in the majors. I think, despite this one wart, this frog is a keeper. We have way more issues than O’D.
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You make sound and plausible arguments on all fronts.
The one I take exception to however is Herrera .
The Herrera ‘speak’ by management for long term going forward….may be just that.
I cannot see Herrera here long term, ie beyond 2018…especially if Haseley progresses as they want him to in 2018 and possibly be in the majors in 2019 sometime. Then there will be the issue with Moniak thereafter.
Herrera’s value is at its peak now and possibly thru 2018. His return on a trade could be immense.
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First, Hasely is not here yet. And until he’s ripping AAA, I’m not counting my chickens before they’ve hatched (see MM). Until that day comes, Hasely is out of the pitcture.
Second, I don’t think the return on Odubel will be immense. While Odubel is a good player, he’s not elite and he hasn’t posted a 5 WAR season. So we can’t compare his situation to say Adam Eaton, who went to the Nats for a haul. I think GMs will be more likely to buy low on Odubel than to buy high.
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I did not want to get into a comparing situation between Eaton and Herrera….however Eaton did take a few years before he exploded on the scene with the White Sox……Herrera at the same equivalent age is already there. Contracts…no comparison…it is Herrera. Their career WAR at equivalent age….Herrera checks this box off.
And there is the youthfulness of Herrera vs Eaton if Herrera is moved in the off-season.
And the return value……this cannot be measured since it is what the market will dictate at the time. But one quality starting mid-to-top rotation pitcher would be enough for me.
As for Haseley……a team does not invest their numbe one pick and millions of dollars…..to a college guy….and think he is not in the picture, soon.
Conforto and Benintendi were both up in less than 18 months after being drafted.
Nola same.
Top ten drafted college picks are expected to be up fast.
.
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The best I would give for Odubel Herrera is a non top 75 pitching prospect. If you’re ok with that, then that trade might go.
You make it sound like Haseley is a sure thing. You have optimism and that’s good, but I would rather be realistic and wait and see how it all plays out.
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That would be a dreadful trade for the Phillies. And they would never make that trade.
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True the Phillies said after the draft there moving Haseley to RF. Herrera defense is GG worthy plus he’s the best hitter on the team. No Gm is going to trade a ToR for a CF .
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I agree Romus. I keep reading how Hoskins is already penciled in as next years starting first baseman. I don’t buy it. If he can stay in left field, it gives the Phils more options, like using Odubul as a trade piece this winter to acquire pitching. I would then look to maybe sign Hosmer and acquire 1 pitcher through FA and another through a trade.
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We have him on the cheap.
He is not Phils’ biggest issue.
Look in other areas to upgrade.
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F-flea —- could not agree with you more. Stanton would go to Japan before he comes to Philly and Moustakas is a financial accident waiting to blow up. 36 HR ? He never even got close to that…..and he does have leg problems. While Doobie is a lightning rod for Phillies emotional outporing, he remains a very talented player who is still growing into maturity – whether we see it is another matter. I also would not trade him for what they “might” get.
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Japan? 👌
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CBP is a slugger’s paradise. The Phils have a ton of money and want to win. You act as if this is the Phillies of the late 90s.
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Jake Thompson looked the best he has yet in a MLB start yesterday. Maybe that’ll give him the confidence and he can turn everything around
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He does have some good breaking pitches, but, because he is kind of a soft tosser (sitting 89-91) he is going to need almost perfect command to be successful in the long run. I’m skeptical to say the least. But at least I saw some good breaking pitches. He’s going to need them because his FB is below average – something you never want to say about a young righty.
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He pitched amazing though. He went back to his windup, and there seemed to be a certain comfort level with that. All his pitches had movement. At this point, he’s a 5-6, but we’ll see what happens. One start does not define his season. He’s still only 23, perhaps he’ll gain some velocity as he ages.
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If Thompson can keep some consistency on his slider’s abrupt vertical bite, there is that hope that he could be in the rotation next season, or at least as a sixth or long guy..
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Jake Thompson was just ok for me yesterday. I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen a pitcher hang so many pitches that the opposing team missed.
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We have a number of what I call KK’s…we all remember him. He could seemingly pitch a gem once every 4th to 5th start and the others be knocked out of the game after 4-5 Innings pitched.
MK has to spend money this off season that doesn’t mean he has to outbid himself
He will also have to trade one if not 2 of his best assets it’s what he is paid to do. These past couple of drafts have left this club far behind the rebuild curve as have the trades of Hamels and Giles.
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From last start to yesterday’s; the ecstasy to the agony. That’s the Snake!!
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My best guess is the Phils don’t get close to the 1:1 choice because with the younger players performing the way they have and a much improved bullpen with Morgan, Nicasio, and Milner it is going to be tough. I think it likely that they may not even be the worst team in their own division as the Mets appear to be taking on significant water – and fast. Hinkie can tell us the difference between a 1:1 and a 1:4 or 1:5 because I believe it could happen ? 16 of 19 final games at home ……….Imagine when Hoskins comes back, Odubel, Altherr, and then JP is brought up to play 3b and remove the one big hole from the lineup ?
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I can see the Giants and White Sox catching up but we should have no lower than the 3rd pick. 65-68 wins with 52 already in the bank. Let’s enjoy Sept without the angst over the ’18 draft. Not necessary.
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I can’t disagree here. Worst case, 4th pick. We still have games against the Nats and Dodgers, so we’ll be seeing some primo pitching.
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The Mets won won 10 games in August the Phillies won 14 . The Phillies also play Oakland at home which could be interesting.
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Phillies version of Tyler Clippard? …’the Hammer’
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Agree, need 2 starting pitchers. Patience needed with Franco for 1 more season.
Crazy thought, get a big-time 1B, keep Hoskins in LF. Trade options: Hernandez, Galvis, Herrera.
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And move Altherr to CF? That could be the worst defensive OF group we have ever had.
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Romus,
That is definitely the JD Hammer I saw a couple of weeks ago. Impressive, isn’t he?
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Agree Frank….at some point he should be in the Philly bullpen…maybe as early as next August/September….assuming he starts at Reading in 2018, and is able to keep up that production thru the early going..
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Just because he has glasses? I would be more excited if he flashed Clippard’s changeup.
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Exactly – when I saw his picture I thought of Clippard.
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Lot of late life on that fastball
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OMG RYAN duran
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No rocco…glasses are not thick enough. Ryne had them pretty magnified.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/durenry01.shtml
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With the extra IFs the Phils already have, they won’t be adding a FA IF this off season. They are VERY high on Crawford and Kingery, and Cesar is the most valuable piece to other teams. So logically, opening day is Franco at 3B, Galvis at SS, and Crawford at 2B, with Kingery at AAA and Cesar traded for a TOR starter. After 1-2 months, Kingery comes up and the infield becomes Hoskins, Galvis, JP, and Kingery. If Franco shocks the world and gets off to a great start, then Galvis would be the odd man out. I see the OF set as Altherr, Williams, and Herrera, with Quinn as the “utility OF” if he proves ready in spring.
I would expect the lineup to be:
1 Kingery 2B
2 JPC 3B
3 Hoskins 1B
4 Herrera CF
5 Altherr RF
6 Williams LF
7 Knapp / Alfaro C
8 Galvis SS
9 Nola P
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The point above about needing to win some games in ’18 to attract FAs is very valid. Here are the moves I’d make to improve the Phils odds of that, in no particular order.
1) Trade for a young controllable starting pitcher with #2 potential. I’d be open to including Cesar and almost any of the Phils young starting pitchers i.e. Jake, Ben, Zac. It will of course take more.
2) Sign (probably overpay) a solid veteran Starting Pitcher that can eat 200 innings next season and fill that #3 starting role.
3) Sign or trade for a top end relief pitcher to fill the closer role. Phils have many strong bullpen pieces – Neris, Morgan, Milner, Pinto, Ramos, Rios, with more coming. They need one to lock down the wins they need.
With these moves, and continued development of the young core – JPC, Hoskins, Kingery, Altherr, Williams, and Alfaro/Knapp – the Phils will be in a great place to sign a big name or two in the 2018/19 free agency period.
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For point #1, if you say it will take more, then why don’t you post what you’re willing to part with? Nobody in their right mind is going to give a #2 pitcher for any of those guys you posted. So let the record show, if the Phillies do not part with Sixto, the Phillies WILL NOT get a #2 pitcher let alone a TOR pitcher. It’s just not going to happen. Deal with it people. And I dare anybody to find a team that had traded for a TOR pitcher for junk in the last 5 years.
For point #3, I don’t think we need a top end relief pitcher. Besides that, there isn’t too many of those and you’ll have to overpay like crazy. Think worse than Papelbon’s contract. I would rather give money to Nicasio instead.
We have the locks for next season: Neris, Garcia, Milner, Morgan. So we need 3 more. I think Siegrist would be given every opportunity to take a spot. Leiter might be pushed into one if he can’t make the rotation. If Nicasio is not re-signed, then
Pinto/Rios/Ramos/Therrien can battle it out.
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Buddy, I agree with most of what you said, especially about needing to start winning in 2018. I don’t think Cesar gets a TOR starter, not because of Cesar, but because I don’t think a 2B gets that kind of a return. And, adding a mid-level prospect, does not up the ante that much. A mid-rotation SP is about the best to hope for. I would then sign a FA SP like an Archer. I think a bona fide closer comes after they show they are contending for a Wild Card spot. Maybe that is at next year’s Deadline, but that requires a really good season.
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We’re talking about Chris Archer of the Rays? He’s not a FA until 2020 at the earliest, and even then, his 2 club options pretty much guarantees that Archer won’t be a FA until 2022.
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That was my bad! Alex Cobb is who I meant. Sorry
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Ok. Alex Cobb is a strange case. He’s not striking out guys, not walking guys, not giving up HRs, and his babip makes it out that he’s been a little lucky. He’s like a 4-5 who’s pitching like a 3. He’s still going to get paid though. 3 Years, $50M?
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Your right, Cesar would only get you a three. 2B is at the bottom of the value chart.
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To be honest, I doubt even Cesar would be able to get back a 3. And if that was the trade, I would do it right now.
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I would really like a LH SP in a trade return. The farm is really weak in this area in fact the whole MLB seems to be a shortage
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I love seeing Thompson pitch so well. I’m sure he’s working hard to get back to the pitcher he was.
The Phillies will definitely try to trade Cesar for pitching. Joseph will get shopped as well. He’s got 20 homers in back to back years so that’s something of value. Kingery will start the year in Philly. Galvis will certainly be shopped but my guess is that he stays as insurance. JP will get the chance to earn the job and we’ll see. Franco will get one more year to improve while they wait for Machado to hit free agency. Rupp will be shopped as well, with 15 homers he has some value.
I don’t want Stanton. His price tag in prospects and salary is just too high. I would however love a guy like JD Martinez and I would then trade Herrera. To me, Herrera will make a mistake that costs us a big game. To me he’s not a winner, just like Cesar. There’s a reason we’re fighting for only 65 wins. We did a big time ace to slide Nola to 2 before we can improve.
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Wait what, you think Odubel is the reason why we’re fighting for 65 wins? It’s not:
A) our starting pitching outside of Nola?
B) Franco?
C) Joseph?
D) Freddy’s bat?
E) Saunders experiment?
And you want to sign JD Martinez??? Who has terrible defense, he’s already 30, an who has less WAR than Odubel? But you think JD is a winner and Odubel is not? Wow, just wow.
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Cant we all agree that while his mannerisms are annoying to some, Herrera is a really good player who can get even better and should only be traded if the return was a top of rotation starter since they are harder to find. ?
Given his WAR over the last 3 years and his age, hope we can move on from argument that Herrera is not a very productive player. He is.
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Look, he’s a knucklehead, that much is certain. And if Odubel was a 5 WAR player, perhaps we can get a TOR player, but then the other argument would be why we’re trading a 5 WAR player. Anyways, in this day and age, where everybody is hoarding prospects like crazy, Herrera is not going to get it done. If you’re trading Odubel because he’s a knucklehead, I have a problem with that. As long as he’s not causing players to get hit or the clubhouse to get fractured, I’m good with him. The argument that Odubel is going to get a TOR starter is laughable at best. That’s the argument we should be moving on from.
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i think we are on the same page, Keep Herrera unless the market for him ( or a combination trade with him) yields a top of rotation ( say number 2) starter, SInce theyre aren’t many of them available in trade, we keep Herrera and look for other ways to build a rotation
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What team could want a player like Herrera?….Detroit Tigers for one.
What pitcher would interest you? ….Michael Fullmer?
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@ Romus, Michael Fulmer has elbow issues and will be seeing Dr. James Andrews next week.
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Oh boy……well in that case, then maybe you can get Fulmer and also another arm in their system…Burrows, Alexander or Soto.
Manning and Faedo I assume, are probably untouchables.
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20 HR isn’t anything special tho . . .
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I just do not see them starting Kingery in the Majors to start the season. Not with the deliberate way they are moving. They could play Galvis at 2b to start if they trade Cesar. That is simply my assessment of how they do things.
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I agree.
Don’t see anyway short of a huge trade market for galvis and hernandez (unlikely for both) that Kingery starts next yr at second.
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In excited to see an OF of altherr, Herrera and williams. That is a good defensive of. All can hit. Major pop will come from Hoskins at 1b. Then some combo of Franco, Galvis, Kingery and JP. Trade Cesar. I’m actually a Cesar fan. Unless Kingery can play 3b.
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Even though Kingery is the future at 2B, I’m not sure if the Phillies will like what they see from the trade market for Cesar.
So my guess is, JP and Kingery will start the year at AAA. Freddy or Franco will slump, then JP gets called up. Kingery gets called up if Cesar slumps, or if Freddy/Franco continues to slump.
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Guru you may be right but I rather cut bait if Kingery is ready. Cesar can be a part of a package.
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We probably won’t know if Kingery is ready until ST. And if Cesar lasts until ST, the odds of him getting traded for anything decent is pretty much nil.
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The biggest question in mind my going forward is what are the realistic options via free agents and packaging tradable commodities ( such as hernandez) with extra minor league pieces ( ie Tocci,etc ) to improve the starting rotation. would love to find someone with a big contract with say 2 ys left or so who can be acquired to help in the short time and not cost much in terms of prospects.
any thoughts of a cole hamels reunion?
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I agree with you. If, as I believe, Kingery starts off great at LHV next year, they will be forced to call him up. That lessens Cesar’s value, IMO, and even more so if he slumps as well. The smarter move would be to trade him this winter. I don’t see much of a market for a Freddy trade, and think ends up as the Super Sub.
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I love freddy as a supersub just don’t think he’ll agree to that this early in his career and will sign anywhere after 2018 where he can start. Obviously JP has to be ready or galvis stays here
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I agree 100%. I’m sure Freddy loves Philly, but he wants to start and I’m sure somebody is going to give him a chance to start with his glove work. Freddy can come back as a supersub later in his career.
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I have to admit that I was one of those who wanted the 1.1 pick in the draft, and all the extra $ that goes with it. But, I have been excited seeing the play of the young guys like Hoskins and Williams, and was really excited to see Adam Morgan’s last few outings. Thompson pitched his best game yesterday. I find myself rooting against what I previously wanted, partially because it is much more fun to watch the team play. Before Hoskins, it was pretty dreadful.
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don’t fear yet. Everytime it looks like we might be in trouble of losing number 1 pick, our starters come to the rescue like Leiter’s 9 run in 3 innings performance today.
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That was brutal by Leiter. You can argue that the Phillies offense right now is better than the Mets and Leiter gets rocked like that? He should have rolled through those guys. Just when you think Leiter can show something in the rotation, stuff like that happens.
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The Phillies absolutely need to get 2 starters out of Eickoff, Leiter, Lively, Pivetta, Eshelman, Liebrandt, Efflin, Thompson, Etc.
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Here’s my take on Stanton. If we can get him, go for it. Here’s my trade proposal…
Phillies take on Stanton, Prado, and Volquez.
Marlins get Franco, Williams, Eickhoff, and Moniak.
Phillies take on all salaries on 2018…. (Stanton $25M) (Prado $13M) (Volquez $13M).
Phillies take on all salary in 2019…. (Stanton $26M) (Prado $12M)
Phillies receive $5M a year for the remainder of Stanton’s contract, which would only be for 1 year, as we can assume he opts out.
For 2018, you can have Prado and Galvis man 3rd. Crawford and Kingery up the middle. Hoskins in first. Altherr, Odubel, and Stanton in the outfield.
I think we sell high in Alfaro here. I just don’t see a 30-homer, defensively sound catcher. If we can package him for an arm, go for it. Knapp and Rupp make a good combo for right now.
People cannot sit tight and wait for next offseason. Nobody will want to come here if we are still “rebuilding” like we have been. Stanton-Hoskins combo would be amazing. Maybe Harper or Machado will fit right in there if we start building now and start adding some stars.
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A lot will depend on how desperate the marlins are to cut payroll.
Reports are they are looking for significant cuts. Being able to eat the salaries of prado , volquez might be able to markedly lesson the cost of Stanton, Not sure who else can eat that much salary next year
. of course, Stanton might say “hell no, I’m no going to a 70 win team ” and make the entire situation moot.
The biggest value to having Stanton in philly might be to increase the appeal of the team for Machado given a 3-4 -5 of machado, Stanton and Hoskins would be impressive
I’m not sure if that trade works but the idea of using our financial flexibility and take on extra 2018 payroll to lesson trade costs is something we have to do
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I agree about Stanton giving approval. But Marlins will be bad next year. So will the Phillies. Where would he rather hit to boost his numbers for an eventual opt-out. I also think the idea of being a contender in 2019-2020 will be appealing as well. Whereas the Marlins probably will not be trending downward. We can definitely sell him on the phillies wanting to spend money.
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That would be an absolutely brutal trade for the Phillies. We get no salary relief, we take on more salary, and we have to give up Williams?
And what makes you think Stanton is going to opt out? If he has 1 subpar season or he gets injured even a little bit, he doesn’t opt out and the Phillies get screwed with a contract that would make Ryan Howard’s contract look like a drop on the bucket.
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What salary relief do we need exactly? We paid $13M for Buccholz, $10M for Kendrick, $8M for Benoit, and $11M for Saunders with very little to show for it. I’d rather have Stanton than guys like that trying to patch stuff together.
And realistically, what is Nick Williams’ ceiling? .280 hitter with 20 homeruns? I’d rather have Stanton, in an injury-plagued season than the best of Williams.
You’re not totally wrong on the risk of Stanton getting injured, but at that point, 2020, we should be moving towards real contention. That’s 3 years away and you worry about it then. You don’t build a team with the plan on big pieces being injured. Yes, you want depth, but to cite what you cited is silly.
So I’m curious, what’s your suggestion? Sit on your hands and hope Mahcado and injury-prone Harper want to come here? Lol. That’s a joke. But hey, you are the guru, I guess you have it all figured out. Nick Williams, with his negative WAR in 130 at bats is going to be the second coming and we should not get rid of him!! Make me laugh.
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Clearly, no team (including the Phillies) wanted Stanton at his present contract because he passed through revocable waivers without being claimed. So 30 GMs passed on that contract, you still want it, so who’s right there?
I don’t have a suggestion on what the Phillies should do, since I don’t have a clue what they will do. I stopped making predictions when the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee.
All I know is, Stanton’s contract leaves almost no margin for error. Considering that we just got out of Ryan Howard’s contract, why would the Phillies do that again? Now what you should have said was that the Marlins will eat $50 to $75M of that contract. Then you have a better case for the trade.
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Based on that logic, no one claimed Bryce Harper either. I guess nobody wanted him, huh?
And I did say the Marlins will eat $5M of Stanton’s contract for however long he is under that contract. I’m sorry I didn’t spell it out, I assumed people can do the math.
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You need to understand how revocable waivers work, and then get back to me.
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@Andrew – there is a big difference between a 1-year vs 10-year commitment. The Buchholz, Saunders and all are just for a year.
If the Phils will absorb approx $250M (this considers your $5M coming back), I will just use that money to get a top arm (that $250M is more than what Kershaw, Schezer and other TOR are getting) or top bat or add some $$ more to acquire Machado.
If the Phils commits to Stanton that they will spend some $$ this offseason to sign FAs (i.e. Darvish, Lynn, Mous, etc), Stanton might accept that trade. But the “opt out” is something that might can be a concern.
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Here’s a crazy stat:
Freddy Galvis career WAR: 2.6
Rhys Hoskins career WAR: 1.5
If Hoskins can somehow put up a September like his August, he can pass Freddy in career value!
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It says a lot about both players. Freddy is a second division regular. Crawford is projects to be a superior player – not just better, superior.
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LHV needs a win to get in today. First inning – Kingery walks followed by JP homer #15. Yes I want those two in Philly in April. Let’s turn this team around.
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I want them in Philly before April!!!
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JP with #15 ties him for 18th in the IL in the HR category.
All players tied with him or above him are older than him…which includes also the three Phillie guys ..Williams, Cozens and Hoskins.
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Medina with great last start today. 6 shutout with 1 hit. Outstanding. Clearwater rotation should be very good next year, Reading too
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Lehigh Valley up 4-0 in the 6th inning of a must win game against Scranton. JP Crawford hit a 2 run home run as Murray said earlier.
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Does anyone know if they can still get in the playoffs if the don’t win? Do they have the tie breaker against Rochester or no?
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Oops, just saw the Rochester has the same record at the moment, so Lehigh Valley certainly has the tie breaker. Rochester is winning 4-1 though so it’s likely that the Iron Pigs need to win to get in
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4-3 in the 9th. If they can hold on to win, up by one, one out, with a runner on first for Scranton, Lehigh Valley will make the IL playoffs. If not, do we see Crawford in Philly tomorrow or Wednesday? Or not this year. Hopefully they win in we won’t have to debate whether he will come up or not 🙂
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Don’t know if this is where we talk about this, but they are now facing base-loaded in the top of the 9th (still up 4-3). Luckily, a double play ends the game if one occurs (let’s all hope)
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A few points …
* The Phillies have been building towards the 2019 season for a few years now. I don’t think that has changed. I would be shocked if Klentak signed a FA (especially a position player) to a multiyear contract this off season. They’ll be all in on the 2018 class. I’ve believed for almost two years now that the Phillies will sign Manny Machado. They’ll also bring in LH pitching (Happ, Britton, Diekman, Miller all possibilities).
* The Phillies should be busy this winter extending, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and maybe even Rhys Hoskins to (Chris Archer or Odubel Hererra like) team friendly long term deals.
* Cesar Hernandez should be moved for a MLB ready LHP. Daniel Norris, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney are all possibilities. Not saying it has to be one-for-one. Could be an expanded deal that brings back a younger MLB LHP like one of the guys I mentioned.
* Klentak has got to get creative to move Tommy Joseph. The idea I mentioned about a month ago is to send ToJo to Baltimore for Mark Trumbo and his contract (2 more years @ 26 million dollars), a prospect (I like Gray Fenter), and the O’s competitive balance A pick. That draft pick would be in the low to mid 30’s and would come with about 2 million slot dollars. Because comp bal picks have to be traded during the season, this deal could only be consummated on opening day 2018. If the clubs don’t want to wait, then I would replace the comp A pick with the Orioles 2017 comp B pick, Zac Lowther. I’ve liked Lowther since his college days at Xavier. Joseph and Trumbo have put up very similar numbers this season. However, Joseph is almost six years younger and will be making the league minimum for two more years before he enters three seasons of arbitration. The Phillies could just release Trumbo and eat his salary.
* MLB is absolutely off their rocker to allow the Marlins to be sold to the Derek Jeter group. It sounds like Jeter & company are going to be more frugal than Jeffrey Loria (if that’s even possible). That said … could there be more perfect trading partners than the Marlins and Phillies ? The Marlins are desperate to cut their payroll in half. The Phillies have the money and payroll flexibility to eat Miami’s unwanted contracts. I’ve previously mentioned the no-brainer trade. Klentak sends a non-prospect to the Fish for Edinson Volquez and their 2018 comp B draft pick. Volquez is owed 13 million dollars next season, but won’t pitch because of TJ surgery. Again, this transaction would have to wait until April. BUT WAIT – THERE’S MORE ! The Phillies have had their eye on a player the Marlins own and his name isn’t Stanton, Yelich, or Prado. What contracts could the Phillies eat to bring back this year’s first round pick Trevor Rogers ? Eric Longenhagen (and I believe Keith Law) reported in June the Phillies were considering Rogers for their 1-1 pick. The team was also game planning ways to force Rogers to their 2-8 pick. Would MacPhail green light a Wei-Yin Chen, Brad Ziegler, and Trevor Rogers for Jacob Waguespack and/or Brandon Liebrandt trade ? Chen is owed 60-million dollars over the next three seasons, but hasn’t pitched since May 1st because of partial UCL tear in his left (throwing) elbow. He is rehabbing in the minors and may return to the Marlins as a reliever before this season ends. Ziegler has been ineffective this season, and is owed 9 million dollars next year.
Even though next off season is the main course, Klentak can still serve a delicious appetizer this winter.
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All valid and plausible possibilities. It will be an interesting offseason for the Phillies and the Fish.
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Lol. So THATS valid and plausible? Taking on Chen, Ziegler, Trevor Rogers in return for organization filler? That’s more appealing than going after a star in Stanton? Okay.
And Ozuna is two years away from free agency, not “nowhere near” it.
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You need to get with the program. If you want prospects, you’ll need to take on cash. Phillies took on Matt Harrison’s contract to have more prospects included. Braves took on Arroyo’s contract for Touki Toussaint. If you want to get Trevor Rogers, who was the 13th overall pick this year, you’ll need to take on a heavy contract.
I like Stanton. I don’t like his contract. That contract should have been the albatross on Loria’s neck. Now it’s Derek Jeter’s problem.
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The Phillies are not taking on that contract without significant relief, which means nothing in return. How’s the Pujols contract working out for the Angels?
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TBH … I don’t believe Stanton has ever been a Phillies priority. I think he has been more of a means to an end. The “end” for the Phillies has always been Christian Yelich. In other words … the Phillies would take on Stanton and his contract if the deal also netted them Yelich. In the end, the Marlins will get a deal done for Stanton w/o having to include Yelich.
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Hinkie….not sure Baltimore will be willing to trade any Rule 4 drat slots. They have decided to fore go the international market this year….and are trading their international money for more advanced prospects it appears
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-team-team-international-signing-trackers/#yh4KAGo46ZT6tz8P.97
And Trevor Rogers….not sure where yuo seen the Phillies considering Rogers as their 1.1
.the whole issue with him…was his age at the draft…he turns 20 years old in two months and has yet to pitch in a professional game yet. That was even mentioned by John manuel as a guest commentator on MLB network, at the draft. Red flags were waving in the wind.
He may have the ability but so far the majority of the time it has been against younger HS hitters from New Mexico. His traveling showcase time is promising, but it has been limited
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The Marlins will have to be creative to get rid of Chen’s and Prado’s contract. Unless the Fish want to hold the record for most losses ever in a season, I fully expect them to keep Yelich. So that leaves Ozuna and their prospects. Now Ozuna is nowhere close to being a FA, so I don’t think he’s going to be dealt. But the Fish can pretty much liquidate their minor league system, and it starts with Rogers and Garrett.
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Phillies are making little moves for bp help. You don’t throw your might into 1 yr , if the Phillies get a chance they will move on a ToR pitcher or bat this Off season.
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Romus … from June 6 Eric Longenhagen chat (I also believe Keith Law may have mentioned the Phillies liked Rogers, too):
RP: You mentioned the Phils trying to float someone, possibly Rogers, to 45. Any names linked to them at 8 on an underslot deal? Would love Hiura there.
Eric A Longenhagen: No names, just think they like Rogers but 8 is too early and the only way to get him to 45 (which would be very risky) is what you described.
Also, overage HS’ers is a bad thing for hitters, not really such a bad thing for pitchers. They’re more physically mature and less prone to arm injuries.
Also, the Orioles have a long and storied tradition of trading their competitive balance draft picks. Before using their 2017 comp B pick on Zach Lowther, they traded their three previous comps picks (2014-2016). They’ve mostly traded them in deals to dump salary. That’s why I find this ToJo for Trumbo deal to be realistic. Here’s more on Baltimore’s penchant for dealing these comp picks. https://www.camdenchat.com/2016/12/14/13944086/orioles-mlb-draft-competitive-balance-pick-bad-trades
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Marlins could wait and drop those contractsat the Trade dead line. I don’t think the Phillies will pay 40 mil or so just to land Roger’s.
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Well done, Hinkie. Conceptually very plausible. And contention in ’19 isn’t beyond reach if these play out accordingly.
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re: Chen/Ziegler/Rogers, you’re taking on way too much salary just to pick up Rogers. Those contracts are $50+ M underwater.
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Well, Crawford is coming on up tomorrow. And he’s going to get Jacob DeGrom? Welcome to the big leagues kid.
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It looks like the Iron Pigs won to clinch the wildcard. Are you sure Crawford won’t have to wait a little longer, Guru?
https://www.milb.com/ironpigs/news/ironpigs-clinch-wild-card-with-4-3-victory/c-252423038
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It’s already been reported.
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From what I heard, he’s coming up no matter what.
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Guess I should never doubt the Guru! Too bad IMO. Glad to see his huge comeback 2nd half pay off but kind of a kick in the face to Iron Pigs ticket holders not to wait another 10 days.
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And it will be so refreshing to now have TWO hitters with a clue in their approach at the plate. Hoskins and Crawford, with Nicky Dubs making strides as well.
Anybody know when Altherr will see action? He’s another kid with a lot of swing and miss but seems to work counts well.
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I heard that Altherr still needs to pass another running drill before he gets cleared? The Phillies really want to take it easy with Altherr. Best case, he’s back on the 7th. But I’m thinking another week and probably the 12th.
Odubel should be back tomorrow and manning CF which would be great to see.
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Yes, very much looking forward to having two hitters that will have a sensible approach day in and day out. I am expecting Crawford to struggle mightily this Sept, it would follow his career arch.
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Well Baltimore has traded comp picks in the past….but they also at the same time, signed international players in the past. They did not this year. Would they be willing to do tha?
Does not seem logical to trade a Comp pick and still sign no international players. Though if they were willing …then the Phillies should jump on it.
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Romus … you probably know better than me, but I don’t remember Baltimore ever being big J2 players. Other than Jonathan Schoop, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jomar Reyes, and Ofelky Peralta, I can’t really think of any other international signings they’ve made. I’m sure there must be some others, but I just don’t believe they’ve ever spent heavily on the international market.
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Guys,
The following is part of my exchange on another website with a guy about the reasons I love baseball. It isn’t poetic or complete, but I thought I’d share FWIW:
Baseball reflects American culture, folklore, myths, stereotypes, values and character. It is a sport in which everyone gets an equal chance. It plays out every day, just like life; it is living theater in that way. It is often a game of redemption and atonement. It is a team game, but one in which every individual action is accounted for. It reflects the irascible independent American spirit, no “Coach sez…” military obedience as in football.
In regards to the last point, it reminds me of the story Jim Bouton wrote in Ball Four about when the expansion Astros finally became competitive and know-it-all, lecturing Harry “The Hat” Walker was their manager. When the team won a game and was taking the bus back to the hotel, with Walker sitting up front, the players would break into song: “What the Blank can Harry say when we win our game each day. It makes a feller proud to be an Astro.” That doesn’t happen in football.
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This comment is out of sequence ’cause I was thinking about it in reference to the earlier discussion about what it takes to get a TOR return. What prospects on the Phils would have matched what was just traded to Detroit for Justin V?
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Astros paid a heavy price for Verlander. A comparable would be Sixto, Moniak, and a younger version of Alfaro.
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I wonder if somebody gets DFA or somebody gets put on 60 day DL so we can get JPC on 40 man?
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Just when you think Pete can’t say or do something more stupid, he does. Aside from stubbornly keeping Galvis as the #2 hitter (even though he is a world class “out” maker), what Pete said today takes the cake. He said that he was going to insert Altherr and Herrera in the outfield with Crawford thus displacing Hoskins. But the “problem” old Pete observed, was that doing so created an issue at first and he wants to keep getting at bats for his productive first baseman, Tommy Joseph (seriously, he indicated this) and as a result, because Tommy’s his guy at first, he will – get this – play Rhys “as much as he can.” This is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard a baseball man say and goes right up there with Ruben Amaro admittedly not caring about on base percentage. If Macknanin managed the 1924 Yankees, I’m sure Wally Pipp would have gotten his job back. Really???!!!
He needs to go. And he needs to go soon.
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The Phillies have 25 games left. Altherr is still out, most likely until next week so Rhys should take all the LF ABs. So if we say that Altherr is back on the 12th, that’ll be 19 games left. I don’t believe for a second that a) Altherr will play the rest of the way and b) that TJ will get more ABs than Hoskins at 1B. I think if Hoskins plays 15 of the 19 games that’s left at that point, that should be ok.
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Altherr has averaged about 375 at bats a season throughout his professional career to date. Williams. a little more, about 415. Everyone projecting a 2018 OF of Williams, Herrera and Altherr has to factor in durability and whether the Phils need to upgrade at the 4th outfielder slot. I wouldn’t trade for this need but names that come to mind in free agency are Logan Morrison and Carlos Gomez. Morrison has been more of a first baseman of late but has an Of history. He would be left-handed bat to provide protection in the order for Hoskins. Gomez has never been a 500 + ab’s type of guy but has some pop in his bat and his presence on the roster could keep Odubel’s mind on the need to keep his job by playing consistently like a pro.
Neither Morrison or Gomez appear on top 10 free agent lists for this off-season and I think are doable on 2-year contracts.
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I think LoMo wants to start, and with his numbers, I think somebody will give it to him. Carlos Gomez, maybe. But not sure if we will accept it.
The problem with 4th OFs is that you need somebody who’s willing to ride the bench and are ok with limited playing time. These are usually journeymen, who are also not making a lot of money.
Those 2 guys you mentioned, I think at this point in their careers, will not want to be 4th OFs and will not sign with the Phillies.
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Its even worse than you think. He based his reasoning on the fact that Joseph leads the team in home runs and RBIs. The only people left in the world who evaluate the value of a player based on those criteria are senile old men and 5 yr old boys.
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No I read that too – I was trying to spare the reader at least some of the torture of following Pete’s twisted logic. Honestly, he’s kind of a dope.
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Guys,
I’m not here to be Mack’s advocate, but I think one of the best things he does is handle people in difficult situations. Maybe his twisted logic is really trying to find justification for keeping people like TJ from sulking or rebelling and not to be taken literally by us.
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Here’s what I would do to get Stanton . . .
Hernandez/Crawford/Moniak/PTBNL for Stanton while taking on the vast majority of the contact. Also I’d sign Galvis to a 3 year extension (thru 2021). In the 8 hole he’s a more productive player than in the 2 hole, just not a 2 hole hitter. You would go into the 2019 season looking to improve 3B, Machado?
2018
1. Herrera CF
2. Kingery 2B
3. Stanton RF
4. Hoskins 1B
5. Altherr LF
6. Franco 3B
7. Alfaro/Knapp C
8. Galvis SS
2019
1. Herrera CF
2. Kingery 2B
3. Stanton RF
4. Hoskins 1B
5. Machado 3B
6. Altherr LF
7. Alfaro/Knapp C
8. Galvis SS
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Eric the marlins would laugh at that trade. why don’t you just ask them to waive him.
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They are looking to unload salary . . . it all depends on how they view Crawford, if they believe his turn around is real, he is than closer to the top 10 prospect that he once was. Therefore they get a top 10 SS prospect, a 2B who is a really good 2B, Moniak who I think stinks but is still really really young and a player to be named, I was going to put in Williams or Kilome instead of the PTBNL. If you are taking the whole contract, you don’t think that could start the talks?
Crawford/Hernandez/Moniak/Williams and 200 plus million off their hands
Crawford/Hernandez/Moniak/Kilome and 200 plus million off their hands
What would you say it would take? Regardless if you want him or not. Can’t stand when people make a comment and just leave it there. Tell me who you think it would take then . . .
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Stanton’s trade value is so hard to figure out, he has a gigantic contract that only a handful of teams can take on.
he has an opt out which hurts his value because if he’s really good, you’ll only have him at this dollar amount for 3 yrs and then probably have to give him another long term contract
he’s coming from a team that by every article written can’t afford him because he eats up 30% of their allowable payroll by himself.
I think if you take on the 2018 contracts of prado ( he may also have 2019 dollars, not sure) and Ziggler which would really help the Marlins, I think the asking price will be lower than you think but really hard to judge.
I think if youre the Phillies, you make an offer based on the pieces your willing to move and be flexible taking back payroll and if Marlins balk, you move on
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I promised silence on the Stanton talk, but I can’t take it anymore.
If you folks really want the Phillies to become the Padres, sure, go ahead and trade the guts of the team next 8-10 years for an expensive oft-injured slugger who will opt out of his deal in 2 years anyway and whose production you could roughly get just for money alone next winter.
This is all incredibly ill-advised and I’m sure the Phillies are smart enough not to do this. If the Marlins just want a salary dump trade with a couple of second tier players and maybe one promising lower minor league guy, it might happen. Otherwise, the Phillies will do the much smarter thing and just wait to sign free agents, who, at most, will cost them a draft pick.
Great teams don’t cannibalize their futures during the middle of a rebuild or even while they remain competitive.
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Phillies would laugh at that trade. Why should they possible trade any talent to take on Stanton’s terrible contract? If he continues to hit well, he will opt out of his contract in 2020 and be gone. If he becomes Albert Pujols, the Phillies will be eating $26M per season for the next 8 years and like Ryan Howard, will be running him out to RF because he’s being paid..
I know you don’t like Crawford but there is no reason to pay Galvis, he’s not a starter on a playoff team regardless of where he hits in the order.
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One thing to remember is the Marlin’s trading Stanton is not a baseball decision ( god, who wouldn’t want a 50 hr slugger who’s still relatively young) , its a financial one. If they decide they cant keep him longterm, then they are in best available offer mode which changes the price.
that price to be determined by what teams are willing to offer and take back that salary not on just Stanton’s baseball value
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Actually, I’m sure it’s both. If they trade him for financial reasons, they will want a strong return on prospects for baseball reasons.
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The difference of opinions is all over the place, interesting . One person thinks the offer is laughable for the Marlins, another thinks it’s bad for the Phillies, someone else wants him plus a few other “bad contracts”, another doesn’t want him at all. Personally I think he would make the line up one of the best in baseball and turns your focus COMPLETELY on pitching bc your line up would be set barring added another bat after the 2018 season which would put us in contention and possibly w one of the best 3-4-5 combos in baseball as well. (Stanton/Hoskins/Machado? Or maybe even Harper/Hoskins/Machado)
I know the Stanton trade talk sounds “crazy” but it sounds like it’s gonna happen this off season. And sorry but the Phillies WILL be one of the teams involved. Btw the offer I put out there certainly would gut your farm system, at all.
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See my other comments. Again, it depends on who and what you would need to trade. My view is they should sign Josh Donaldson, who will not cost them any prospects nor a first round pick, and then focus on strategic trades.
Donaldson is older, no debate there, but he’s a superb offensive and defensive player and should age well (definitely feel comfortable with him for the next 3-4 years) and, over the last 5 years, has been a much more valuable player than Stanton at a more critical, and difficult-to-fill position.
To me, signing Donaldson is an obvious move, an easy move. It speeds up the rebuild without almost no downside and shouldn’t require as long or risky of a deal as the other free agents.
I give this a good 35-40% chance of happening.
As for people wondering what will happen with Franco – honestly, given how he’s performed, I’m not sure I care that much. When you start putting together a team with playoff potential, young players who have 2 straight years of horrible production start mattering a lot less.
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I meant to say “with almost no downside risk” – I know my grammar can be atrocious at times, but it’s not THAT bad.
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I’m on board w Donaldson, they can do both w the money they have. I think Hernandez/Crawford/Williams/Moniak and taking the salary would get it done or at the very least have them listening. It would all depend on how they see Crawford, again if he’s the 2nd half Crawford he’s a top prospect in all of baseball. If he’s the 2nd half of 2015 up until June of 2017 (yes he was bad for that long) well then it might not get it done.
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I’m against that – fully.
Stanton for Crawford straight up would end up being a bad deal. You’ll lose the valuable lost cost production at SS of Crawford and you’ll end up overpaying for Stanton. I would not allocate resources in this manner.
If you want to allocate money resources wisely, sign Jake Arrieta to a 3-4 year deal. It will costs some, but my sense is that he struggles finding his market value. He won’t be a Cy Young pitcher most likely, but he’ll be a heck of a 2-3 and if you team him with Nola, that’s a nice start.
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Saw this weekend where the Sox in a Stanton deal would have to start with Benintendi, LHP Edouard Rodriquez and one more premier pitching prospect in their system like J. Groome and a PTBNL.
Phillies should just avoid Stanton…but stay engaged in the rumors to up his ante wherever he may go.
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LOL, I’m thinking Hernadez, Williams and Lively.
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They probably may want another pitcher added to that package.
If so, I say anyone they like except Nola or Sixto.
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Why would we even think about doing a deal for Stanton unless he waived his opt-out clause which, obviously, he’s not going to do right now.
By the way, the package you mention srussell would be something I might otherwise consider. The operative word being “might.”
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russell,
I’m thinking Mack and Klentak. LOL
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The only way I could see the Marlins getting that type of a return for Stanton is if they kick in $75 Million to offset the amount owed. The fact that no one put in a claim is the cold hard evidence.
The Marlins are screwed either way with the No Trade Clause they will have very little leverage to make a favorable deal for themselves.
Giancarlo holds all the cards here. His representation did a heck of job getting him this deal and he made it pretty well known before they came up with it that he wanted out.
So if you have somehow convinced yourself that he would waive that no trade to come to Philly this off season then I would like some of what you’re smoking please.
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Players aren’t dumb. You are telling me Stanton doesn’t see some of the young talent We have? The park we are in. I’m not saying he wouldn’t rather go to a team who’s playoff bound next year but players aren’t dumb. Btw if your thinking is how FA think we are screwed in that market too huh?
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Um Eric aren’t you proposing trading that young talent to get Stanton here? You’re right players are smart which is why he is not coming to Philly this off season.
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I believe St. Louis may be the most likely destination for Stanton. The Cardinals can put together an Alex Reyes, Stephen Piscoty, Johan Oviedo, Delvin Perez package.
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I agree St Louis definitely is on the list. The question isn’t what package can be put together because we could put together a great package, the question is what package are teams willing to put together based on the size of the contract and the 2020 opt out so in essence, you have him for many yrs at a huge number if he gets hurt or declines but only 3 years if he excels
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Eric,
Like the line ups, but I’d switch Herrera and Kingery. Odubel’s got more pop. Kingery’s got more chance to steal a base into scoring position.
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Until you play in the Major’s for a year you are just a draft choice and after a year you are then a prospect or a suspect. Remember Dom Brown?
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Read story on Philly.com that only 8 HS position players from JPC class have made it to the Majors and 7 are now back in the Minor’s.
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Story about Matt Imhoff on Philly.com
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As for Donaldson, he’s not a free agent until after 2018, same as Machado. I like Donaldson of course but I love Machado and really want him. I think the Os will trade him this off season and I would definitely try to bring him here a year early and then convince him to stay with a big deal. Would it be worth it? What would one year of Machado cost in prospects? How about VV, Joseph and Irvin for Machado and a big contract? How does a lineup of Kingery, Herrera, Machado, Hoskins, Williams, Altherr, JP, Alfaro look? It looks very good to me. Then you trade Cesar and Rupp for a starting pitcher and take on a bad contract to get another starting pitcher. Money can dig us out of this hole quickly if spent correctly.
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Murray and everyone else, my apologies. I was certain that Donaldson had enough service time to be a FA after his contract ended this year, but I was wrong. He has another year of Blue Jays control next year. Obviously, that changes the equation quite a bit. Sorry y’all.
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No problem
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I’m still in favor of kicking the tires on Donaldson if the Jays decide to tear it down. There are some things the Phillies could do with the Jays to help both of our situations.
Start with Tulo who is owed $54 million plus a $4 mil buyout through 2021. He is likely to never play SS again.
And then there are the Pirates who are always looking to manage payroll and have a really nice stock pile of Arms.
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np catch, I almost made a mistake once
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Why would a GM trade for Machado for only a year of service?.
Why not work out a sign and trade between his agent, Duquette and the team forking over the prospects to the Os for Machado?
The Angelos may do everything in their power to keep him and the push will probably start in October when the season is over for them. But I do not see it cannot carrying over to spring training because clubs want to get their rosters set.
But if he does not re-sign with them before February…then make the offer to the Os on condition, and and with their permission negotiate with Macado’s agent for a long term deal, if the trade is completed.
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@romus – i’m sure that the O’s will try all avenues to get value in return from Machado (assuming that Machado will not stay with the Os). Sign and trade works well in the NBA because of the salary cap consideration (which MLB doesn’t have) but I’m not sure if that’s a normal way in the MLB. It will take a perfect partner (a team that wants to win now, will pay big $$ to extend Machado and has a deep farm) to complete a sign and trade and that doesn’t even include Machado’s own preference.
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Regarding the Galvis/Crawford dilemma – there shouldn’t be one. Whether Crawford makes it at the big league level won’t be determined ultimately until after Galvis’ fate is, either by trade this off season or the deadline next.
Secondly, I expect Mackanin to typically favor Freddy as the veteran. Another reason I’m not a Pete guy, much like Uncle Chollie. I certainly would rather see JP in the 2 hole since that’s what he’s projected as. Galvis is a number 7/8 hitter on a 2nd division club. Period. And I like and admire Freddy as a player. But since he’ll be gone either by trade or FA next year because the Phils won’t spend the kind of money he’ll command from any team starved for a shortstop.
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it’s official – JPC will start at 3B tonight.
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Thank the lord. Hopefully this puts Franco on notice.
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….and batting 7th. God forbid Freddy bats anywhere but 2nd. Thanks Pete.
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I’m okay with that as his first game. The problem is, when JPC starts getting on base at a .350 pace, Freddy will still be hitting second.
What good is all the analytics if your manager is too much of a block head to use them? The question, I hope, answers itself.
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@8mark – i agree that there should be no dilemna within the INF. ToJo, Cesar and Galvis are all replaceable talents and Franco was not being discussed because there’s no available 3B coming up to replace him.
This might be more of my opinion for now, but I can see the Phils already sold on Hoskins-Kingery-JPC as the core INF (similar to Howard-Chase-JRoll). The trio played and developed a winning culture coming up. The Phils might be able to sign Galvis as the utility guy, but the know the value of a performing Cesar right now and they will try if they can get something for him.
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Cesar is a serious cut ahead of the other two. Cesar is probably a first division regular (if just slightly) now. He’s a very solid player and his defense has become nearly elite.
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Almost all teams know that Cesar is getting traded and he is not creating any buzz about his trade value. You might be overselling him. It’s been Kingery for me since Day 1 and nothing Cesar can do that will change that.
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KuKo…perhaps Cesar alone in a trade does not bring back much in value, but he could be a desirable added piece in a package deal.
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I agree with you both, Kuko and Romus. Cesar is a nice player with virtually no power but decent OB skills. (Except for when he’s on base, I’m still not sold on his headiness despite the fact that he hasn’t brain cramped much since last year.)
Alone he’ll get you little in return, especially major league arms. He’s a package piece waiting to happen this off season, unless MacKlentak really pisses us off by holding Kingery down at AAA for arbitration eligible reasons.
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The lack of respect for cesar is amazing. just amazing/
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Not at all, Roc. He is what he is. Nice player. Not an all-star. Expendable only because somebody better waits in the wings.
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I don’t think he’s getting much buzz due to the position he plays, not because of his talent level. I’m with you that Kingery is the better option moving forward but I also agree that Hernandez is in a different category than Joseph/Galvis.
I think they can trade him for some value but he’s not going to headline any major deals..
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The Phils should better trade Cesar sooner than later. On top of being a solid 2B, Cesar’s trade value is his team control. Cesar’s skill set is too vanilla that there’s nothing left there to look forward too. 2B is one of the least demanding defensive position so I will not even try to say “elite” if we’re talking about a 2B defensive ability.
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I hope they wouldn’t be looking to get anything of real value for Joseph just move him on to a situation that is better for him. He’s been a model citizen through all of his ups and downs.
Freddy as an everyday SS with little offense and GG defense gets you something of a lottery ticket or if part of a package with us taking on some money maybe a little bit more.
Cesar definitely gets you a high end arm in a teams system much in the way Forsythe returned DeLeon and then additionally something a little further out.
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KuKo….2nd base acording to Fangraphs does have a fairly decent positional value…equal to CF and 3rd base..
Position Adjustment
C +12.5
1B -12.5
2B +2.5
SS +7.5
3B +2.5
LF -7.5
CF +2.5
RF -7.5
DH -17.5
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@romus – market defines trade value of a player and not SABR. the positional adjustments in SABR are determined by mathematicians sitting in their desk rather than the baseball guys following prospects and players from place to place and burning hours watching tapes and reading scouting reports.
And honestly, i don’t even know what those value represents. Does it represent wins, runs, etc and if so, why? SABR are very good, but it can skewered your thought process if you misuse them. We don’t know the underlying assumptions that being considered in running those mathematical calculations. I will use SABR with caution.
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I just don’t understand this site anymore. I have watched a kid Cesar become a near allstar. from a kid who played stupid baseball. To a slick fielding good hitting second basemen.. something I though we all looked for on this site. Yet all the talk is get rid of him. Romus saying he wont have much value. I want to remember all the people on here who are saying to unload him. Cause we have babe ruth in kingery. maybe kingery becomes a good player. but cesar already is 2.5 war player. 359 obp. slick fielder. 14 sb. 8 hr. But according to this site we wont get much for him. and kingery is way better a kid who never had a major league at bat.
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Not sure what you don’t understand. Back in 2003/2004 the Phillies had a nice 2b/3b, solid player, .350 OBP, in his prime at age 28, future all-star. They traded that player to Detroit to make room for a guy from AAA. Chase Utley turned out to be a better player than Polanco and in fact the fan base to this day complains that the team held Utley back longer than they should have because of Polanco.
I don’t know if Kingery will turn out to be better than Hernandez in the long run or not but based on his production so far through the system, he certainly looks like a better player.
You trade Cesar because he is a solid player who might return some value and because you have another option that appears to be better.
I suspect you would be in the “They traded Utley to keep Polanco!!!” crowd today if that decision wasn’t made 15 years ago just like people are still bemoaning the Ryan Sandburg trade 40 years later..
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I think most of us here believe that Kingery will be the better player in the long run. That doesn’t mean, however, that there’s anything wrong with Cesar and it probably does mean he should be traded. Hopefully they can do better on the Cesar trade than the Polanco trade, which was a disaster.
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Cesar is arguably a top ten 2nd basemen in the majors….but cannot understand why some think he will garner in a trade a MLB TOR pitcher.
What did Logan Forsythe (a career 10WAR player at the time) bring back to TB in the Dodgers trade.
That is what you can expect if Cesar is moved.
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roccom you’re the best
those numbers you are impressed by wouldve been nice for a 2B in 1987
cesar and jose lind would have been neck and neck for best 2b in the division
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just want to share…it is reported in the NY Times that BOS used Apple Watch to steal signs against another team…i’m really surprised how creative BOS management is.
another cheating incident? looks like cheating is a way of life in BOS sports.
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Boston….the city of champs over these last 15 years.
Soon that distinction will be placed on Philadelphia….the parades will get so boring.
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But if the punishment is a loss of draft choice big deal. take away a championship like they should have done to patriots. but they wont.
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That’s priceless…and timeless. Is it the water up in New England or what? They won’t stop. MLB should exact severe penalties, even games lost. Forget fines. They’re meaningless. Even if it benefits the Yankees, I loathe the Red Sox more. Maybe force a name change to the Black Sox? Oh…. that’s been done? Do it again! (RIP, Walter Becker.)
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What’s funny is that most of the teams do it and the Tigers V-Mart were accused by the White Sox of having a plant in the OF that was tipping pitches to V-Mart.
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JPC safe at 1st on FC and throwing error in his 1st AB. He can get on base!
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The funny thing about Freddy and Ceaser. Freddy can do what Ceaser does in the field most likely better. Ceaser can’t sniff Freddy in the field. On the bases Freddy is the better base runner not the fastest but smarter and better. At the plate Freddy has the power and RBI potential . Ceaser can walk and has some power but has trouble on the bases. Today’s 2nd baseman can hit 20 hr and 80 plus RBIs .
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You forgot one thing that Freddy is way, way better than Cesar at: making outs. Freddy is a champ in that department, in his career making outs in 71.5% of his plate appearances. People don’t talk about it enough, but Freddy is really, really good at it. Cesar, in comparison, is a complete slacker, making outs in fewer than 65% of his career plate appearances.
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Haha that’s awesome WestCoast….
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Tim … offensively, you’re comparing the two with Freddy colored glasses.
Freddy career … .244/.285/.374
Cesar career …. .282/.352/.376
That said, Freddy would make the better utility player because he can play SS (in addition to 2B, 3B, and the OF). Cesar cannot handle SS.
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Yes Ceaser gets on base more but really isn’t a base stealing threat . Ceaser speed is his main weapon once that goes he’s an below avg 2nd baseman. He really can’t play anywhere else well. Ceaser 28 he might lose a little speed in a couple yrs . There’s no room for 2nd base only players on the bench. Freddy can play the next 10 yrs because he can play great D anywhere and is Smart. He also has some Power and doesn’t miss games. Ceaser ok right now but in the long run who knows. Galvis is gone after this yr anyway.
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Too put that in a little more Freddy has 9 errors Ss . Ceaser had 11 at 2nd , Ceaser also has the higher K% by a pt.
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What irks me most about Freddy is how he gets himself out just watch him hit and watch the pitches he swings at. He swings at so many pitches that are so far out of the zone I would love to see where he ranks in Oswing%
But I’m to lazy to look it up
Hoskins OBP is 44 points higher than Freddy’s SLG%
Alfaro is currently 362/393/842 but only has 2 walks that’s bad…
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Irks you? What do you think Stairs is going thru with him and Franco.
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Stairs gets paid to watch the mess that is those two at the plate….I don’t!
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Here are a few observations.
First, on Alfaro, there’s no question the raw ability is there – in fact, it’s pretty off-the-charts. The problem is that he has a history of doing well at first and then falling off dramatically once pitchers learn they don’t need to throw him too many strikes to get him out. Can he adjust and draw more walks? Probably not, but we’ll see. At the very least, someone needs to work with him on pulling pitches in the middle of the plate – he’s unnecessarily sacrificing a lot of his God-given power because he swings so late on strikes. Memo to Phillies – do NOT get rid of Andy Knapp (unless you acquire a first division catcher this off season).
On Hoskins. Just watch his at bats. They are amazing. It’s not just the home runs. It’s everything. Plate discipline, natural power, hit tool, and hitting all kinds of pitches, not just strikes in the middle of the zone. He may be the best young hitter I’ve ever seen on a team I’ve followed. He seems to be the best young Phillies hitter since Bobby Abreu and he could well be much better due to the power and walk rates. We’ll know much more by the end of next year, but he looks like a potentially elite cornerstone player. Just incredible.
The line-up could be outstanding next year. If you put the right guys together, this line-up is going to be patient and dangerous. There will be a lot of games where the other team’s starter is out before the end of the 5th inning. That’s where you really dominate other teams.
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The team really needs to part with Freddy for two reasons.
First, he really is some kind of slick fielding SS. As the 8 or 9 hitter in a line-up he’s actually pretty good and someone body will want him.
Second, if you keep him here, Pete loves him and he’ll play way more than he should and rob other players of needed at bats. What good is that – especially if he leaves after next year as a FA? A guy like Angelo Mora (who is a lot better than people think) is fine to have in reserve and there are always okay back-up shortstops lingering around. They’ll find someone; I’m not worried about.
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Love Mora in that role….
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Freddy and his quest for the Golden Gloves Award as a shorhstop seems to be the over-riding theme with the Phillies and management these days.
Briadcaster talk about it…manager mentions it in post game..
Pete knows the rules and I am sure when Freddy reaches that minimum requirement …I hope he then puts JPC in there form there on out.
Rule:
• All infielders and outfielders must have played in the field for at least 690 total innings through his team’s 137th game: this equates to playing in the field for approximately 7.5 innings per game in approximately 67% of his team’s games by his team’s 137th game; this ensures that only full-time players are considered);
• All infielders and outfielders with at least 690 total innings played qualify at the specific position where he played the most innings (i.e. where his manager utilized him the most)
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Freddy has reached his 137th game at shortstop now and 1200 innings
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Yes but being benched for the last month will still hurt his chances. I know its supposed to be an award for defensive ability but offensive numbers and playing everyday matters.
I expect Pete will continue to play him most everyday for the last month..
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Mack did say he wants to give JPC 5/6 games this month at shortstop.
Some at 2nd also and of course third base.
And the other aspect is Freddy wants to play all 162 games…so missing 5/6 games from the remaining should not be a big deal. He will still end up with over 150 games at shortstop which she be enough for him to get a nominee for the award
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Can’t trade a guy there’s no market for.
Off-season market for Hernandez:
Dodgers, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Mets
Off-season market for Galvis:
Twins, Royals, Rays, Marlins
In-season injuries create their own markets for a replacement. Phils won’t give away either player so fans should temper their expectations for off-season moves to accommodate Crawford and Kingery.
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WSox are playing Moncada at 2nd base, so cross them off the list for a possible Cesar destination.
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LAA is a perfect match for Cesar but Moreno balked when the Phils asked for Mike Trout.
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Also the Tigers could be a destination if they decide to move on from the 35-year old Kinsler.
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JPC gets his 40 spot by Florimon being put on 60 day DL.
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Phillies now 2nd pick by .5 over SF. Had to be now lol.
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Who needs Otani? We have Ben Lively. Does anyone know if he was considered a good hitter in prior years? His pitching performance was very good also. He seemed to be causing quite a few broken bats. The Mets have been killing us. Nice to see last night’s game.
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He said, at one time after HS, he was looked at as a possible third basemen by some colleges. As a Red prospects he did have some hitting good fortune in a SSS in AA ball. Looks like he can handle the bat….wonder, can he bunt?
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I don’t think any of our pitchers can bunt consistently. I’ve never seen so many butcher boy calls in my life.
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Does anyone have a subscription to BA ?
Ben Badler has a preview for the 2018 J2 class. Also has Otani info. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/10-international-prospects-to-watch-for-2018/#WcXCY8Vctyllus3M.97
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Hinkie – because it is you and you provide so much info all the time here goes :
5 prospects still left to sign; 11, Ronny Rojas – Yankees ? ; 10 Raimfer Salinas and 15 Antonio Cabello rumored to sign with Yankees ; 27 Wildred Patino – rumored to sign with Rangers ; 34 – Mauro Bonifacio – no rumors.
Consternation whether Yankees keeping $$$ to sign the above or wait for Otani says BA. They are believed to have a war chest of $ 8 million now. Waiting to see if Otani is posted. These prospects could effect 2018 signing period as they could wait also.
In this order BA ranks ; 1. Orelris Martinez, DR ss, Jays – 3mm ; 2, Noelri Marte, DR no position, Mariners – 3mm ; 3. Misrael Urbina, V cf, Twins ; 4. Francisco Alvarez, V c, Mets ; 5. Mario Luciano, DR ss, Giants 2-3 mm ; 6. Diego Cartaya, V c, Dodgers – whatever $ ; 7. Gabriel Rodroguez, V ss, Indians ; 8. Jose Rodriquez, DR c, Rangers ; 9. Enrique de la Cruz DR np , Tigers 2-3 mm ; and 10. STARLYN CASTILLO, DR rhp, PHILLIES – 1 mm easy / considered best pitcher in the class.
I think this is legible enough – the DR and V are the countries as you know. If no position was given the remarks were made about their hitting etc.
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Thank you, RU. Here’s some video of Starlyn Castillo. The second video has him listed at only 5’10” 160 lbs. He fits the Sal Agostinelli profile.
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thanks for posting. Is the $1m the expected bonus? If so that is a nice amount compared to the other top 10
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Number indicated as “possible” area of the bonus.
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Hinkie:
Still cannot understand how the Yankees have $8M……they have already signed LA kids to the tune of over $4M plus for the J2-2017/18 signing period.
Everson Pereira, of, Ven (No. 4 prost) $1.5M….Roberto Chirinos, ss, Ven (No. 20 prost), $900K….Anthony Garcia, of, DR (No. 28 prost), $500K….Stanley Rosario, of, DR, $300K…..Miguel Marte, ss, DR $200K….Albert Vega, rhp, DR $100K…and the remaining five at $100K or below..Enyerberth Ascanio, c, Ven and Nelson Medina, cf, DR…..Ezequiel Duran, ss, DR…..Jose Martinez, 3b, DR…..Yordy Nunez, rhp, DR
http://pinstripedprospects.com/yankees-additional-bonus-pool-money-not-enough-for-otani-24809
I just cannot see the Yankees having enough…they cannot go over the hard cap of $8.3M
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Yes. There’s something wrong there.
BTW … this is the situation I have brought up here a couple of times over the last few months. Would a team abandon Latin teens it had agreements in place with to enter the Otani sweepstakes ? It looks like the Yankees may risk upsetting LA trainers/agents by reneging on some deals. Will this hurt the Yankees with future J2 prospects ?
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Agree.
With all the teams trying to accommodate themselves to a better financial position for his sweepstakes….Otani may just wait until his 25th birthday, July 2019, and take the best offer that would pale to the international financial restraints now imposed by the current CBA.
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My only comment is Phillies usually sign players from V. I am surprised they are only mentioned on one player from DR – but no player from V ????
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They’re a fantasy baseball sight, but Prospects 1500 has released its Phillies mid-season (more like late-season) top 50 list. http://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/phillies-midseason-top-50-prospects/ IMO, JoJo Romero (#25) and Jhailyn Ortiz (#27) are ranked way too low. Romero and Ortiz are both top 10 prospects on my personal list.
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Well, the second this dufus writer said that JP Crawford isn’t elite and hasn’t shown too much as a prospect, I shut it down. He has no idea what he’s talking about and probably knows less than most of us.
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i don’t think the writer has good knowledge or enough handle of the Phils farm system. the narratives sounds like from someone who looked at baseball-reference.com and take it from there.
I agree that Jhailyn Ortiz is an easy Top 10 and JoJo is an easy Top 12-15. I’m sure that the writer has no clue who are the prospects A level and below.
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KuKo…I do agree with him having Hall at 20 and a narrative that supports the players accomplishments to date. Then again Hall did win the SALLY MVP so that may not really be a “go- out- on- the- limb” ranking.
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Here’s my Top 30 as of 07/31/17 – I have Hall at #30 six weeks ago and if I have to adjust as of now – Hall might still be outside my Top 20 (probably within 21-23) unless Hoskins and Alfaro graduated from my list then Hall might be able to break in my Top 20 possibly above Brito, Tocci, Gowdy and Cozens.
1 Sanchez
2 Kingery
3 Moniak
4 Crawford
5 Kilome
6 Hoskins
7 Haseley
8 Alfaro
9 Medina
10 Ortiz
11 Randolph
12 Eshelman
13 Jojo Romero
14 Anderson
15 Dominguez
16 Brito
17 Tocci
18 Gowdy
19 Cozens
20 Morales
21 Gamboa
22 Stobbe
23 Suarez
24 Howard
25 Irvin
26 Fanti
27 Guzman
28 Gonzalez
29 El Garcia
30 Hall
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the above is my ranking before the July deadline. Jose Gomez and McKenzie Mill might be able to crack my Top 30 (both will be in the bottom 5) if I re-adjust my ranking as of now.
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KuKo…having Hall at 30?
You may have to clean that mustard off your face next June.
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Because of those two rankings I cant even click to the site
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I see we traded for the Cards AA Second baseman. Alvarez, bats left and this is his 22 year.
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Eshelman, Leibrandt and Taveras shut down for the rest of the year. LHV’s starting rotation in the playoffs will be:
1) Anderson
2) El Garcia
3) Jay Wags
4) Alvarez
5) Kilome
Appel with join the bullpen. I prefer to see Irvin than JWargs, but the 5-man rotation for LHV is still solid.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/philadelphia-phillies-lehigh-valley-ironpigs-thomas-eshelman-jose-taveras-brandon-leibrandt-20170906.html
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We traded Nicasio to Cards and Alvarez is on the 40 man.
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Why the (blank) is Kim playing? Hell.. why is he even on the team still!
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So what ever credit I gave Nick Pivetta in his last start, I take it back. Tell me if you’re seen this before: 5 innings, 10 hits, 6 earned, 1 HR, 111 pitches. His ERA is still at a ghastly 6.49. C’mon man! This was your 22nd start! Against a terrible Mets team. Where are the adjustments? Where are the improvements? I don’t think I’ve ever been more frustrated with a pitcher since I started using MLB.TV to watch my Phillies.
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You’ve got to at least give Pivetta credit for moving the Phillies back into the pole position for the 1-1 pick. The Phillies are next in Washington for four games (including two vs Scherzer and Strasburg). Meanwhile the Giants and White Sox will cannibalizing each other for three games in Chicago.
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Hinkie…the race to the bottom will be interesting as the last few dozen games unfold.
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Nope. It would be one thing if he got shelled by the Nats. I’m guessing if you compared this start against his second start in the bigs (May 5th against the Nats), you wouldn’t see any improvements in the effectiveness of his pitches.
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I may repost this, but interested to see what other “phans” think about this hypothetical :
Profar is apparently on the outs with the Rangers. Didn’t receive a sept call up. He has generated a lot of interest from our previous FO. What do you think the chances of making a trade for Profar is with our upcoming roster crunch? Could push Franco for next year or replace him as the future INF. With all the musical positions he could be 2B, move Kingery to 3B. I’m sure they can figure it out. If both Franco and Profar poo out … you open the war chest for Machado. Thoughts welcome, insults encouraged 🙂
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Tac3…..I think Daniels would take one or two of any of the Phillies LHV and up pitchers for Profar at this point. Profar played a little of everywhere at their AAA affiliate, but mainly back at shortstop so his shoulder issues may be gone and he may have regained his arm strength. And he did have a reasonable offensive slash in the PCL…..287/.383/.428 in almost 400PAs
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Elvis has a very weird contract. He has the option 2X to opt out. Once after the 2018 season and again after the 2019 season.
Profar might be their insurance policy for that…
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Yeah…also read where Daniels decided against bringing up Prorfar and a few others because he did not want them sitting on the bench and getting ABs here and there while the Rangers try to make their push for the wild card.
Also Odor is not a given for them down the road, also from what I understand…so Profar could be insurance either way.
BTW…saw where Hamels thinks the Phillies could be the next Astros rebuild team.
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I’d like to see Cole back here but they say you can never go home again…
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Was talking to my buddy who’s a big Blue Jays fan and posed him a question: What would it take to get Josh Donaldson in the offseason. He mentioned he would accept Sixto, Cozens and a lotto ticket.
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You’re buddy is smart to ask for Sixto but from our side I wouldn’t do it. Cozens sure and something else sure.
The Jays need to get young quick and will by nature of Joey Bats retiring (probably)
Morales is 34 and they owe him $23 Million. Tulo if they were lucky comes back next season and maybe is well enough to play 3B they owe him $58 million through age 36 and he is going into his age 33 season.
To boot their best prospects are a ways away which is why I think they are ripe for some kind of a block buster deal with us getting Marcus Stroman.
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Vlad Guerrero could be up in Sept 2018 for them or maybe even sooner
Bo Bichette in late 2019.
They seem to be their headline position guys who will make impacts for them.
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Yup and one is a 3B and the other they list as SS/2B. Both are 19 so you have to figure 2-3 seasons away on the low side.
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The problem for the Blue Jays (and I’ve talked to my buddy about this), is that all their pitching prospects have had poor years. Not only that, they have no pitching depth in the upper levels. So if their system is top 5 in hitting prospects, it’s pretty much bottom 10 easy for pitching.
So if the Blue Jays wanted to trade Stroman, they would need at the minimum 1 top 50 pitcher and 1 top 100 pitcher plus other pitchers.
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Cesar didn’t exactly bring his brain on the field tonight. Larry Anderson wondered if he was going for a hot dog on a pop fly down the RF line that Williams saved him on. Before that he didn’t know the rules on what should have been a routine DP. Championship ball clubs have smart ball players. We don’t, yet.
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……………..one of those moments when he is not in the moment, bewildered was the look after the play trying to reconcile what had happened. Not sure he had it even then.
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He may have ADD….
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DMAR……….I think you might be right.
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….and if Alfaro wants to stay behind the plate, we better hire Chooch ASAP to keep him there.
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Man, you are dead center on that!
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Former Phillie Brett Myers has released a new music video. I’m no music critic, but I’m going to predict Brett wins as many Grammys as he did Cy Young awards.
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I don’t like Brett Myers the dude – at all (he’s kind of the douche king – I’m sure he’ll next be performing at a Confederate General statue near you) – but have to admit the song isn’t half bad.
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8mark, you are correct. Alfaro has done a nice job hitting, but he is a long way from being a stellar D Catcher. I said before what you said, if Chooch is not playing next year, I hire him the 1st day the season ends, and create a position called Catching Coach.
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Alf ought to head to LF…and Hoskins to first base in 2018.
There was that talk back in 2015 that if he could not stay behind the plate he was athletic enough to go out to the OF.
And they can still keep Knapp…who believe it or not, seems to be very capable defensively behind the plate, and willing to bet the pitchers feel comfortable with him as they frequently would comment when he was at Reading and last year at LHV..
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Alfaro is not going to hit enough to play LF – in fact, it’s unclear whether he’ll hit enough to stay at catcher. He has a long history of hitting .330 before pitchers in the league catch up to him and start pitching him out of the zone and then bottoming out. Let’s see how he does after the pitchers start making adjustments.
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Yeah I agree with Catch. If I were to trade any of our Catchers this off season it might be Alfaro…
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In the right deal I’d trade him and Williams and not think twice about it. Nick Williams is doing quite well and he still has a negative WAR; that’s troubling.
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Nick Williams..negative WAR?.
bWAR….in 61 game it is .1WAR……1.1oWAR and negative 1.2 dWAR with a 1.1 oRAR, which over an entire season protracts out to 2.9oRAR
fWAR……………………it is .5WAR……1.6ofWAR and negative 4.5 dfWAR………and protract his total fWAR @1.3 and ofWAR @ 4.2
…in essence his defensive play has negatively impacted his overall rating.
His bat has played well.
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Romus – you’re right – he’s now positive WAR – he was negative up to about two weeks ago. But his poor defense is still gobbling up a lot of his positive value, as you note.
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The two years I have watched Williams, at the plate, he really does not strike me as a power guy by his physique …..until you look at his history.
Already this year he has 24 HRS between LHV and Philly, with a couple dozen or so games to go,
His ISO thru his career has always been well above average….even when he was at Hickory with that noted Rangers power team then.
The book was always his strong and quick bat action..
Hopefully he will be able to improve on his two-strike approach and make more contact when the league eventually gets a book on him.
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If Alf’s power is legit…then his ISO should be enough for LF duties.
His defense should be average to plus since he runs well and has a strong accurate arm.
And have to assume the pressure of not having to learn to even play an adequate catcher, will only help him concentrate at the plate more.
But if he has too much swing and miss and a low OBP, along with limited power, then agree his bat does not play in the OF.
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+1
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Wasn’t Nick Williams supposed to be a good defensive OF? I am surprised he isn’t. Next year, Altherr has to be in RF and Nick in LF, don’t they?
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matt13……agree….Williams is probably best suited for LF. And Altherr can go either RF or CF he is that good of a defensive player. but when players’ defensive skills are rated it can be so subjective and quite frankly all over the place.
Mike Trout is rated as an average to poor defensive player by some of the national ratings….three full years of negative WAR and three full years of positive WAR
Williams’ BP FRAA when he was a Ranger was horrific, all negatives across the board….but all of a sudden as a Reading Phillie after the July 2015 trade, and as a Pig this last year and half, he was superlative.
And now these 61 games in the majors, he is back to being horrific again. Go figure.
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JP at shortstop tonight.
Freddy is NOT in the lineup.
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There goes 162 for Freddy.
From Fangraphs chat today:
Are you optimistic or pessimistic this benching of Mikael Franco will cause him to learn some f’n plate discipline? If he watches Daniel Murphy and his no wasted movement, he could be a monster. His body has too much movement when he swings.
9:55 …Jeff Sullivan:
Optimistic Franco could show a short-term improvement, pessimistic it would stick. I just don’t think Franco is very good, and the Phillies feel the same way
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Franco is way too much of a free swinger. He thinks he could hit every pitch, and he can’t. He needs to zone in.
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Don’t get Franco his Ball % and K % are elite . He’s good in the field only 25 he moves on and maybe it clicks. Saying that what’s Cincy going to with Senzel they have Suarez who’s Really good .
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in case you havent red enough yet, good article on hoskins
https://theathletic.com/96304/2017/09/07/what-powers-phillies-slugger-rhys-hoskins-inside-his-unlikely-rise/
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Jim Peyton … Stay safe. Just saw Irma is now headed a little further west. The Tampa area now under a storm surge warning.
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I second that thought.
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Jim, my kids are in Cape Coral. They are out of the area with friends. You be safe!
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Cesar and Doobie just blew their Gold Glove chances in the same inning!
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Why isn’t Altherr playing?
Check out 1 through 4 of the lineup tonight. Add Altherr in the 5 hole & you really have a wrecking crew going.
Alfaro in 6 & JP in 7 to turnover the lineup.
2018 Opening Day Lineup:
1-Cesar, 2B
2-Doobie, CF
3-Hoskins, 1B
4-Williams, LF
5-Altherr, RF
6-Alfaro, C
7-JP, SS
8-Kingery, 3B
The strength at the top & bottom have the potential to be equal. Lots of 2 out runs being scored when the pitcher can’t get put of the inning with JP drawing walks & Kingery extending innings.
In my mind, Franco needs to have a great spring to keep his spot opening day, otherwise Kingery gets the call in May to replace him.
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Where’s our gold glove SS?
Why do you automatically assume Hoskins is 1B; he actually has looked as comfortable at LF as he has at 1B.
You’re also taking our 2nd leading RBI and HR guy and putting him out to pasture for a 2B moving to 3rd despite playing only half a season at AAA at 2nd; That’s a huge risk.
I say, keep Franco at 3rd for one more year (who knows; he might turn out to be an Adrian Beltre).
Our issue is at SP; i think we can survive all the other warts we have if somehow, we can induce one Ace and one other SP to join the Phanatic in Philly.
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Hoskins has to be at 1B if Herrera, Williams and Altherr are healthy.
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Why?
If he is the modern Bull Luzinski, while TJ hits between 20-25 HR’s and 70-80 ribbies, what’s wrong with that?
Has AA shown the ability to last the entire year?
Or is he more of a bigger Roman Quinn?
In either case, it’s the pitching that’s the issue.
We score 10 runs and still get beat by one.
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Because all those guys are better than Joseph. Hitting 20 HRs by itself isn’t impressive; there are guys in AAA that can do that if they were to get a full season of PAs in the majors. He’s been a bad hitter this year and there’s no use for a poor hitting 1B.
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Joseph is about a replacement level player – he’s really not much different than Brock Stassi in terms of his performance.
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Let’s see Stassi hit 30 hrs in the majors . Please Tojo will have a 10 yr career in the majors . Stassi might not make it back to the show. Tojo gets himself out he has elite power . When there’s Mike Napoli at .194 Odor .215 Chris Davis at .221 . I mean Mark Reynolds , Moss , Mitch Moreland on Boston .248 18 hr 65 RBIs he at 32. Eric Thames on mil .236 28 hr 54 rbis most of these players are way older then Tojo on much better teams. Reynolds and Moss have made a living out of power bats. Tojo mite have more Hr then Rizzo did in his first 2 yrs.
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Tim…..ToJo has power, he just will be the 250/295 BA/OBP guy…with relatively high mid-20% K rate and low BB rate, under 10%.
He will get you 25/30 HRs and if the guys in front of him get on base he will have high RBIs.
Just not sure he can be better than Hoskins across the board.
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Not saying he’s better then Hopkins right now . But his career so far is way better then Stassi who I like . This is Tojo first yr as a starter on the worst team in baseball. But anyone in baseball will tell you his swing and the way the baseball jumps off his bat his power is legit.
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Joseph has power but to say it’s “elite” is just wrong. Stanton has elite power; Joseph’s might be plus but he doesn’t get to it often enough.
Tim, all those guys you mentioned, save Thames and Reynolds, are having poor years offensively, some of them terrible. But they also all have track records that are longer and more impressive than Joseph’s. Plus Odor is a middle infielder; apples and oranges.
If Joseph’s player comp is Mitch Moreland then why are we even having this discussion?
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I am a big fan of Freddy. He fits the mold of Philly players & still seems to be improving every year.
But JP will provide very similar HR & RBI production, while scoring more runs with his high OBP. He will give the team the chance to score more runs. His defense won’t be as great, but still above average.
Franco needs to show improvement in ST to keep his job. A slow start will bring up Kingery at 3B.
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Reverse Magic Number down to 20.
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Watch out Jim it’s the storm surge , not the storm itself some times. 8 to 12 foot, my buddies son was in Houston when Harvey hit . He was high and dry but no power for 3 days ,plus no way out all the major roads are closed. By the third day they went help and find a cold drink .lol
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It will not surprise me, if the Phillies will be drafting for pitching come June, though the GM mentions off-season as the time to start to do that.
“In its simplest terms, I think the areas for us to make [offseason] investments and make upgrades are probably going to come more on the pitching side than the position player side for next year,” Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said. “Again, that’s largely a product of personnel. But you never know.
“We’re going to continue to place a focus on adding as many pitchers as we can to our system, letting them matriculate up through the system and when we have opportunities to go outside, whether it’s short-term veteran arms, trades for players with longer years of control or even more marquee pitchers, longer contracts in free agency, those are all avenues that we’re going to pursue. Not just this offseason, but for the foreseeable future.”
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Romus … as always, they need to draft the “best player” with their first round pick. However the 2018 draft is going to be an incredibly deep class for pitching (both HS and college). If they end up with the 1-1 pick, they’ll have an almost 13.5 million draft pool (including the 5% overage). Between the draft and the next J2 period (Starlyn Castillo), the Phillies could harvest a bumper crop of pitching.
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Hinkie..agree…..even if they get one of the first three picks, there will be a pitcher there that should be in the rotation by late 2019…like Nola was in ’15 after he was drafted in ’14.
Florida Gators have the two starting pitchers alone on their staff, that could make a difference for the Phillies rotation in a few years. Oe of them should be available.
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Florida’s Brady Singer and Jackson Profar, Casey Mize (Auburn), Logan Gilbert (Stetson), Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss), Konnor Pilkington (Miss St.), and Tim Cate (UConn) are all college pitchers who could be picked early and be fast movers.
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Boy that reads Darvish or a big trade for a big ticket pitcher. You can draft a pitcher 1.1 but even in the best case scenario . He mite be 5 yrs away from starting a playoff game. I really don’t think anyone from next yr draft coming In helping in the next 3 yrs besides Beer. Singer good but small and needs add Muscle. The One thing there not going to draft a pitcher high that’s under Medina , Sixto, Kilome , DS , potential .
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Darvish and Arrieta are the 2 marquee names. If they can get Arrieta on a 3 year contract, but overpay for those years, I would be interested. I don’t think Darvish leaves LA. My feeling is that, I plan to contend for the playoffs in 2019, so Arrieta fits that timetable. I have much less interest in a 1 year rental like Hellickson or Bucholz any more. There are enough arms to eat innings. I want someone or 2 someones who advance the quality of the SP and can help make the playoffs in 2019 a reality.
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Aren’t there younger guys who would be more amenable to a long contract; guys like Archer and Snell from TB?
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granny…Snell is not even close to eligibility for his first arb…he is in rookie status still.
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granny..correction on Snell…he is in his 2nd year of service time…..2020 first year arb….2023 FA.
Will have to be a trade to get him before he turns 30..
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Hinkie and Romus – check out mlb trade rumors.com. Yankees sign Ronny Rojas for 1mm and there is also some math on their 8mm bankroll and what they did with it and how they got it that high….
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Not Arrieta at 32 & who has, in my opinion, already peaked.
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I don’t see it happening with Arrieta – all he needs is one team to want to overpay him or give him 4 or 5 (or more years) and he no longer becomes attractive. And I expect at least one of those teams to emerge.
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I agree with you Catch, that getting him is very unlikely, but if that 4/5 yr deal does not emerge, and we can get him for 3 or less years, I would do that. The list of possibilities for a #1 or 2 are slim, but Pitching is a must for next year. I don’t really see a trade possibility for a TOR starter.
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Priority of needs that IMO should be addressed this off season:
1 starting pitching – 2 acquisitions
2 third baseman
3 pitching coach
4 manager
5 base running coach
6 Carlos Ruiz as catching coach
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#3 and #4 are vastly overrated.
A manager in baseball is worth 4-6 games a year either way, MAX.
“It ain’t the X’s and the O’s.
It’s the Jim’s and the Joe’s.”
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I think a great manager is maybe a game or two better than an average manager. It doesn’t sound like much, but it is.
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I think Charlie Manual cost us 5 games in one September when he didn’t play a white hot Ruf everyday.
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You better add a 3 pieces to that horrible Bp.
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Freddy back in the lineup… And back hitting in the 2 hole. *face palm*
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A 5-4 Phaiku (Phillies’ Haiku):
Pesky Phils Swat Gnats!
No Match for Leiter; Wins 3rd!!
Garc, Halt; Neris Save!!!
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Hoskins last 280 games from Apr 2016 in Reading thru last night…81 HRS.
A HR every 3.5 games.
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Hoskins has 2 fWAR in 30 games.
Maikel Franco, the second most disappointing pharmhand to make the big club in the last decade (looking at you, Dom), has 2.1 fWAR in 384 games.
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That alone is such a sad indictment.
Franco and Freddy have combined, at the top half of that order….prior to Williams and Hoskins arriving on the scene….to stymie the offense.
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Don’t forget Joseph. They might get a hold of one here and there, but pitchers know those guys will chase more lettuce than a vegetarian at Ponderosa.
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I looked up the affiliate link Jim left ’cause I was curious how LV was doing. Well, on the bright side today’s game was close, and it seems they do well with their backs to the wall.
Cortes, Ford fuel 1-0 Scranton/WB win over Lehigh Valley for 3-1 lead
SCRANTON, Pa. (AP) — Mike Ford hit a solo home run in the seventh inning, and Nestor Cortes allowed just five hits over seven innings as the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders beat the Lehigh Valley IronPigs 1-0 on Sunday.
Nick Rumbelow struck Dylan Cozens out with runners on first and second to end the game for his seventh save of the season.
Starters Cortes and Jacob Waguespack both pitched gems in a classic pitchers’ duel. Cortes (3-4) picked up the win after he struck out eight and walked one. Waguespack (0-1) went seven innings, allowing one run and three hits to take the hard-luck loss in the International League game. He also struck out seven and walked two.
Hector Gomez doubled and singled twice for the IronPigs. Lehigh Valley was blanked for the 13th time this season, while the Scranton/WB staff recorded its 14th shutout of the year.
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The third base saga:
Maikel Franco’s career numbers and Cody Asche at the same time-frame…bear frightening similarities.
Asche — .240 /.298 /370 with a .668 OPS and 88 OPS+ in 1,287 PAs….approx.370 games. Franco — .246 /.300 /419 with a .719 OPS and 92 OPS+ in 1,577 PAs…approx 380 games.
….of course Maikel does not have close to the 24% K rate Cody had when he was here. …but still…..oh boy.
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