We are a week away from the Amateur Draft. Here is the last pre-draft discussion.
Eric Longehagen posted his mock draft on Fangraphs. His thoughts on 1:8 were –
8. Philadelphia – Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia
Scouting director Johnny Almaraz and advisor/hitting genius Charlie Manuel were at the ACC Tournament and GM Matt Klentak has seen the UVA kids. I also think there’s a chance they cut a deal here to try to move Trevor Rogers back to their second pick, or they could just take Rogers here.
Phuture Phillies 
I know the guy can hit and has a great eye at the plate, but I have a hard time taking a guy that high in the draft that’s a 1B and doesn’t have huge power potential. With Hoskins so close to the majors it seems a bit odd to take a 1B prospect that would probably go through the minors at a fast pace. For an NL team I don’t think it makes sense. I’d love to get Beck or if somehow Lewis falls him. I could live with the Haseley from Virginia, Bukauskas from North Carolina, Baz, Joe Adell, Kendall from Vanderbilt, Burger from Missouri state, Trever Rogers, or Beck from Stanford.
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I agree. We need pitching so badly.
Yet the lesson of passing on Frank Thomas because of Rickey Jordan rings in my head.
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Paving ain’t Frank Thomas but I get what you are saying.
Pavin reminds me of James Loney which doesn’t get me very excited
I’d say go for the highest ceiling within reason because we need some stars
Not 4/5 pitchers or 5/6 hole hitters those guys you can buy anytime or hopefully get later in the draft as predictable college kids
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Yeah they need high impact players. Haseley would be pretty interesting because his power has improved and he’s a good fielding OF that can hit for average too. He should move quickly. Beck is still who I want most and Jo Adell would be nice too.
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Obtaining a true 3 hole fixture in your lineup is gold. Yes he’s profiled as a 1b only player but he’s not so immobile that he couldn’t fake it in LF. I personally think you take the soundest plate discipline and excellent glove (it’s not like you’re just sticking a good bat at 1b by default; he can really field the position). The Phillies will need to acquire a TOR arm for major league service and soon.
SCENARIO : Joseph will be traded by the deadline as Hoskins is ready to be called up, giving him a season and a half to show either a) he’s the future, in which case Pavin gets reps in LF, or b) another valuable trade chip should Pavin press the matter by raking down on the farm. There is really no drawback in my mind from taking Smith 1-8.
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Why do people feel that Hopkins is a upgrade over joseph?? Another strange idea
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Better minor league stats ?
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Joseph has a career .307 ob%. His current ob% is 3rd worst among qualified first basemen. His ISO is middle of the pack. He is a mediocre MLB first baseman. If his milb numbers translate, then Hopkins has a chance to be elite. He will surpass Joseph’s ISO while adding 50-80 points of ob%. That is a material upgrade.
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If his minor league stats translate? I Am not saying joseph is elite. But his numbers at major league level are 24 plus hr and close to 100 rbi. Hopkins is a butcher at first base no range, not that joseph is great. but okay imo. I just dont see the rush to get rid of him after all the injuries he has had. We now are seeing the tip of how good he could be. thats all i meant
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rocco……ToJo has the power and Hoskins has both the hit tool and the power.
ToJo by the time he was 21 at AA ball, he already had 49 HRS…..but his BA//OBP were very pedestrian…and remained that way, though catching and concussions altered his development. Long term Hoskins would seem to be the answer.
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I’m a big fan of Hoskins and I think, in the long run, you are looking at a better player – perhaps a lot better.
That said, I don’t think we should dismiss roccom’s valid points about Tommy too readily (which I am sometimes guilty of myself). Tommy’s development went in fits and starts because he was a catcher and because he lost big chunks of time with career threatening injuries and then an eye problem that seriously hurt his ability to pick up the ball. He could definitely still be improving.
Tommy is not a good fielder and probably will never be. But he might end up being in the mediocre to average range. He does, however, have legitimate power – I’d think it’s about equal to Hoskins’ power. The thing with Tommy is his hit tool and plate discipline. I’m generally not a big believer in guys suddenly developing good plate discipline, but Tommy has stretches where we see him drawing walks and being more selective. Tommy also has a nice short swing and, unlike many power hitters, he can actually turn on a decent breaking pitch.
I think they should delay Hoskins’ promotion for at least a month or a month and a half (although, frankly, he’s probably ready) to see what they may have in Tommy and, perhaps to increase his trade value. At the end of July, this murky picture may be a bit more clear.
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I don’t think homers and RBIs are a very good metric to use when evaluating players. He’s roughly a league average hitter this year who strikes out at an above average rate, doesn’t walk much, but has admittedly good power all while playing these least valuable defensive prostitution. In his current form, he is not all that valuable.
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It’s funny we really don’t what Tojo will top out at he’s on Pace for 30 / 90 at least. He’s learning at the ML level . Plus Tojo ,Hoskins power numbers are close . Let’s see where there at in a month. Plus Hoskins is 24 how long before he ‘ s a DH type player I mean if hes a stiff Athletic 1 St baseman. It’s not going to get Better so the window might be 24 to 30 then the Al. Let’s not forget Hoskins has had Cozens either before or after him . Also there’s nowhere in Tojo numbers as of now that reads 24 homeruns. 40 is a possibility of near that.
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answer me this rocco…how is it possible to know if a player’s minor stats translate until he is given a chance at the major league level? that said, hopkins’ minor league stats are beyond better than TJ’s. They are on another planet better. like night and day.
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Wasn’t Tojo a Catcher for most of his minor league career . His vision was corrected last yr plus he dropoed ,20 PDS. If you have young successful power hitter very rare that teams don’t give them a ful yr in the ml.
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He projects to have better obp numbers.
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Must’ve missed something, is Hopkins an up and comer in the farm? 🙂
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Better hitter for aver – same power , better athlete and better defender !!
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You could put him in left, but then LF is patrolled by a bad defender. They just drafted a guy like that two years ago that’s an all bat player in Randolph. He too was questioned about his power potential. Now Smith is further ahead in his development and should move fast, but it just seems like a bad use of resources.
What are they even gonna get for Joseph? A bag of balls and a back end top 30 prospect. Even good hitting 1B don’t get moved for huge packages. Unless the guy absolutely mashes in the majors. I just don’t see Smith as much of an upgrade on Hoskins prospect wise. I’d much rather grab Beck, Adell, Baz, Bukauskas, Haseley, Lange, Faedo, Burger.
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I came across this last week. the A’s have long been tied to Smith in Mock drafts, but this writer details why he wouldn’t be worth the 1-6 selection: http://www.athleticsnation.com/2017/6/2/15728190/mlb-mock-draft-2017-pavin-smith-oakland-as-rumors
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Take the best player. If Pavin is the best player and he lights it up in the minors then you have a trade chip in either him, Hoskins or Joesph. Having too much talent is a good problem to have. That being said, I wouldn’t mind Kendall or Haseley here either. Or…do what they did last year and sing someone below slot so they have signing bonus money to spend later. (which is what I think they ultimately do)
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The only thing that concerns me in that scenario is how much trade value can a 1B prospect (or even an established guy if he isn’t Freeman or Goldschmidt) have?
Anthony Rizzo got the Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez & got the Padres Andrew Cashner (although he was sold low by the Padres).
That’s why I’d prefer if he could play left field (or even if Hoskins could) as that would allow them to keep both guys should they both pan out (as good as both project to be, the odds are against them).
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Teams draft a 1B profile in the early round for one and one reason alone — they expect that 1B prospect to hit and produce with their team and nothing else. some 1B prospects that are not early picks might explode on the and prove the experts wrong — those are the Goldschmidt’s (Rd 9), the Rizzo (Rd 6), the Howards (Rd 5), etc. If the teams end up will a lot of performing 1B that are considered excess, that’s the only time they think of their trade value not when they draft them early.
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As much as I like Beck and Smith, I’m starting to lean toward Baz. We need pitching, and none of the pitchers that will probably still be available (guys like Faed and Bukauskas) don’t have his upside. The only thing about Baz is his strong commitment to TCU, which may be too much to overcome.
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none of the pitchers…*have* his upside.
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I am willing to bet a few million dollars would overcome that TCU commitment…a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Baz has Josh Beckett written all over him.
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Worst mistake a team can make drafting for need. I dont want another nola. If your taking a pitcher that high he must be elite imo.
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The best as projected, pitchers will probably be gone by 8.
Hunter, Wright and McKay will be top five picks more then likely.
But in a HSer like Baz the upside ceiling is very high. The downside is that he is a HS pitcher. TINSTAAPP.
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Don’t worry – that has been Johnny A.’s philosophy — don’t draft pitchers in the early rounds (Rds 1-2) unless they project to be #1/#2 potential. Since Johnny A. becomes in-charge of the local scouting, he drafted C, Moniak, Kingery, Gowdy, Williams and Stobbe in the early rounds of 2016 and 2017. Gowdy is the only pitcher and he projects to have a ceiling of a #2 – being a big mechanically polished pitcher with good delivery of his 3-mix pitch showing plus potential.
although i’m still not a fan of the C and Williams, i trust Johnny A. that he knows what he’s is doing an no more mistakes of the RAJ-era in the draft.
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i should say 2015 and 2016 and NOT 2016 and 2017, my mistake.
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I generally like Johnny’s philosophies on drafting position players (focus on the hit tool and baseball-related abilities), but it remains to be seen whether his philosophy on drafting pitchers is a good one. He focuses highly on strike throwing (which sounds good in theory, but perhaps not at the expense of other tools).
I like seeing at least a fair share of big arms being taken – because some won’t pan out, but some turn into Kenny Giles. I’m not seeing any big arms out of Johnny’s drafts at all, which really concerns me – they are all coming from signings out of Latin America through Sal and his team.
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@catch – i agree. i remember JA saying that stuff becomes nothing if a pitcher cannot throw it for strike. JA also mentioned that the stuff is easier to develop than the pitchers ability to control their pitchers. these statements supports his philosophy, which in concept is very sound and make sense.
however, this approach appears to be risk averse too as most of the TOR are pure stuff in the beginning and they just develop their ability to control their pitches. I don’t have my draft board anymore, but I remember I have Groome-Pint-Puk over MickeyMo, Allard over C, Funkhouser over JoJo because I’m enamored by pure stuff.
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Well, I think there’s this belief that, if you pick the right guy, he will develop velocity just as a good young hitter will develop power. The problem, however, is that while I think you can project a hitter to develop power, how a pitcher’s velocity develops is a really difficult thing to project. A lot of guys who are soft tossers don’t “learn” to throw harder, just as it is difficult for a person to “learn” how to run faster.
So, yeah, I think you really need to take a chance on at least some big arms in every draft – but I’m not seeing this with JA and it makes me concerned, at least with the US draft (I’m not concerned with the LA signings because Sal and his team know how to identify guys who throw hard or will throw hard).
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Question I have does Philly try to sign underslot at 1:8 in hopes to sign a better prospect later on or if a team in top 7 pass up on a top player does the team shoot for overslot at the expense of a later pick? Thoughts?
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Tough call. My feelings are the Phillies need quality not quantity so I would pick the absolute BPA regardless of slot dollars. Plus, like last year with Rutherford, there is no guarantee the kid being targeted later on will be available.
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BobD….the draft slotting allocations have altered a bit from previous years making that sort of maneuvering difficult.
Additionally…the Phillies select 45th on their second pick…..a true gamble the player they want to overslot will be there.
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I would imagine if they had that in mind (overslot signing later on) they may have more than 1 in mind, but since the minors have been restocked with quantity I do agree that they should get BPA
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College bats are so tough to evaluate. I think the power is easier to see since they went BBCORE with a -3 and max .5 which is still slightly higher than a wood bat.
I think you’re flirting with bust when you talk Smith at 8 or even the helium that Hasely is catching. If Smith was an above average OF I’d feel differently.
Sure his discipline and bat to ball skills should translate and maybe you wind up with a Joey Votto. I like Beck more and I like Baz more.
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they will have about 425k above the total slot before hitting the 5% max; so if they paid everyone else slot, they could get the 2nd round pick up close to 2 million. with the depth they have in system right now wouldnt mind a few senior signs at low $ if necessary if it means getting some real high upside options with your first 2 picks.
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My thoughts on that, which might be totally off base and wrong are, you are signing a better player for his position in the draft not necessarily a better player overall in the draft,
Not sure that is clear , so I’ll it like this as well, you get a guy in the 5th round who might have 2 rounder but because he was young or had a strong commitment was drafted, most guys who are gonna be picked around the Phillies selection should top prospects and belong in the first round.
Some might aight last year but if Gowdy was that darn good why didn’t a team take him in the 20’s the answer imo is. he was a second round talent
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20’s first round I meant.
And man I have fat fingers for an IPhone.
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In the latest mock that I will post tonight, I have the Phillies taking Adam Haseley from Virginia. At first, it was Austin Beck for the first 3 mocks; however, given the dire need for near MLB ready talent, the Phillies cannot afford to wait on a high school project. Another possibility is Alex Faedo from Florida
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How does he compare to the OF talent we have in the upper minors? Is he an upgrade over them?
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Haseley is very different than what the Phillies have. The best comp I have for Haseley is a Brett Gardner type. Tons of speed and athleticism, some sneaky pop, good contact hitter and has the ability to play CF. Haseley is a safe pick with a low ceiling. I’d say he’s big league ready in 2-2.5 years if all goes according to plan. I’m a fan
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CF is probably the deepest position within the organization with speed, range and defense as abundant in all the players, prospects they have namely Doobie, Quinn, Moniak and in throw in Altherr and Willams. Tocci’s defense it MLB ready and Coppola another below the radar CF profile that can be effective.
We hear BPA a lot but what does it really mean?!? How do we determine BPA if no consensus is available? Drafting is all about value. If you draft a low ceiling (albeit a safe one) player which is not even your best option in 2-4 years at round 1, that’s not maximizing value of a very important Top 10 pick.
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Agree. Not interested in Haseley at all. Either Smith or Beck should likely be still on the board at 1-8. Likely! I prefer the closer to mlb talent but won’t cry if Beck with his Trout hs comp is the pick.
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was trying to get excited about Haseley- seeing some similarities to Benitendi before he got picked at #7, though not as good. but if he isn’t in center, he doesnt provide enough power in the corners for a team playing in Citizens Bank Park- ive got to go higher upside.
here was an interesting look at Haseley’s swing- sorry if this was posted previously..
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2017/6/1/15725214/draft-analysis-adam-haseley-takes-the-slack-out
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I want the Baz !
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BPA= Best Player Available
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I don’t think Center Field is that deep. There’s bodies there but the impact these players will have moving forward is questionable.
Odubel – MLB CF, proven commodity, under contract through 2021. He is our most valuable trade piece and could easily be moved for a good package to fill other holes.
Quinn – I like him as a player and think he could be a star if he stays healthy but you can’t count on him.
Williams – Far from a sure thing with his plate discipline.
Tocci – I have a hard time seeing him as the CF on a championship team. He screams 5th of to me.
Moniak – He’s holding his own in Low A but I could see him being a part of a package for a star player. I have him penciled in as the starting CF sometime around 2021 when Herrera’s contract is no longer guaranteed.
Plus if you can play CF, you can play RF & LF. It’s not a concern for me.
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I like Faedo…but IMO, he slots right into the Efflin/Thompson/Pivetta/Eshelman mold of a three in the rotation.
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Oh yeah. Faedo is no ace, but he’d fit nicely into that dynamic
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That’s not something to be excited about .
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Efflin, Thompson, Pivetta have all seen MLB time and Eshelman is quite good. You wouldn’t sign up for that with Faedo, given the fail rate of minor leaguers?
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Hell no. I want to draft guys in the top of the first round who have a good chance to be difference makers. I’d rather dare a little and fail than get another Jake Thompson. No, thank you.
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If you rather dare and fail…then a pitcher like Shane Baz is who you would want. them to draft.
The guy could be a Josh Beckett in the making. His ceiling is high, but also as a HS pitcher, there is that element of risk.
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If they take this kid Faedo, I’m going to be pretty pissed off.
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I don’t think any of those guys are threes though. Pivetta has a shot because of his stuff, but that group is filled with a bunch of 4/5s
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Yeah I think we’re overrating those guys at little. They’re back of the rotation starters. 3’s is the absolute height of their ceiling and a little bit of a stretch generally speaking.
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JL26:
I think you should look at it more closely.
I do not think it is an overating of their potential abilities.
Hendrick is a three in the Cub rotation.
Gio ot Roark are a three in the Nats rotation.
Maeda, McCarthy or Ryu, take your pick, are threes in the Dodgers rotation.
Their records are far from outstanding right now.
Outside of the Mets….with either Gsellman, Wheeler or a now rebuilt Harvey…and maybe the Red Sox with Sale, Price and Porcello…..the Phillies mentioned above with another year or two of experience could easily slot into a three on must any team in the majors…..if they perform up to their peak AAA performances.
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I agree with you that they are not 3’s but even if they are, that’s not what the Phillies should be trying to shoot for in this draft. That fact that you can list 1/2 dozen guys who are already there speaks for itself…
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That was my other question do they actually lean towards near ML over HS or best player if that is even the case at #8
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Close to MLB ready talent all the way. The Phillies cannot afford to sit on their hands much longer
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I could not disagree more. This team is awash in too many average-ish players they cannot find room to play (witness Andrew Knapp). The pipeline is already full with ready or near-ready talent. They need to start filling the system with future stars (and, to their credit, I think they have been working hard to do this). Draft the guy you think will become a star – I don’t care if he’s 2 years away or 4 years away and I don’t care if he’s a pitcher or a position player. The team has plenty of money if it wants to fill in gaps in the meantime.
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I want to see Beck fall to the Phils at 8, but I have a feeling he will not. From everything I have read it feels like to me the pick will be Smith.
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Draft 1.8:
Option A: Any of Wright-McKay-Greene-Gore-Lewis if available (98% they are not)
Option B: Baz
Option C: Beck
Option D: Rogers – $3.8M underslot
Draft 2.45: One of Enlow-Scherff-Beck-Mitchell-Vientos
Draft 3.83: One of Hurt (or Estrada-McMahon-Leach)
I respectfully disagree with John about the the dire need of MLB ready talent. I can see the Phils plugging the biggest hole via FA with all the payroll flexibility they have starting next year. I made a case of the Phils putting together a competitive team with a total payroll of about $150-160M even if committed 75-80% of that to few players.
Prospects ready to play at MLB level will be joining the Phils (40-man) within the next 24 months – JPC, Hoskins, Kingery, Kilome, Seranthony, Pullin, Tocci, Arano, Eshelman, Medina, Singer, Davis, Ed Garcia, etc. The argument that these prospects may not pan out also applies to any college players they draft in 2017 Rule IV – so its a wash.
What the Phils lack are impact talent both on the pitching and hitting. And they can address this by opening up their wallet – with Otani, Machado and other top FA in mind. With the recent success in the local and international scouting arena, it’s time for the Phils to invest on high end talent by drafting prospects with elite tools and hiring the best coaches to develop them.
The only scenario I can the Phils drafting college players like Haseley (I still like him) or Faedo is when they plan to sign them underslot and use the savings to sign very good HS prospects with signability issue at the later round. Even with the underslot signing approach, I rather sign Trevor Rogers at $3.5M – $3.8M than draft a college dude unless it’s Wright or McKay.
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just a correction, i totally forgot the prospect I want the Phils to draft. See revised 1.8:
Option A: Any of Wright-McKay-Greene-Gore-Lewis if available (98% they are not)
Option B: Smith
Option C: Baz
Option D: Beck
Option E: Rogers – $3.8M underslot
I give Option B 50-50 chance to happen and Option D 80%. Option C and E should be 100% probable.
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you may have stopped too early…. options F thru I….Faedo, JB Bauk., Haseley, and Adell….I assume they are not what you want, but the Phillies may have other thoughts.
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lol…didn’t have my morning coffee so i don’t have my gears yet…
in my draft board — Option A & B may not be there, but Option C, D and E can be made. considering what Johnny A. have in mind, Haseley is a possibility but they already got a stack of young OFs in the pipeline so they prefer a higher ceiling but risky prospect in Austin Beck over Haseley although I can see them having Baz as the highest rated player in their draft board when it’s their time to draft.
i don’t think Jo Addel is of Johnny A.’s type, maybe in RAJ-era but not this era and Faedo is probably not the TOR type that Johnny A. don’t draft in the early rounds. I give JB 40-60 chance since I knew Baz is there at 1.8.
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Push come to shove …one of Beck/Baz/Smith/Faedo will be fine with me.
Each have some question marks and each have upside in their own right..
Like you said above…I am not sold on Adell/JB B. and even Haseley.
One thing I like to look at with college players is their freshmen year metrics…when they are facing older players and how are their last year’s metrics.
Most all should be top by their junior year facing younger players or players their won age level…Haseley’s metrics his freshmen year were very average, nothing stood out.
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their ‘own’ age…not won age
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@romus – i used to like Faedo as a pitching option at 1.8 before that it’s now look warm with the potential of a Shane Baz and Trevor Rogers.
Faedo got good size but i don’t see him being better than the middle of the rotation arm. Is Faedo’s projection going to better than Nola (drafted at 1.7 who is known for his command of the pitches and plus breaking ball in CB)? In 2016, I can understand if the Phils decided to draft AJ Puk 9and not Mickey Mo) because Puk has a TOR potential, but Faedo?!? I’m willing to roll the dice that Nick Pivetta, Drew Anderson and Seranthony Dominguez are better option that Alex Faedo after 2 years.
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Romus, I love you brother but you’re all over the map. Pick one or two and stick with it. Your reasons for all those names are compelling in their own right but what’s your gut saying? (It’s ok if you’ve moved on from Pavin. We’re good with whoever.)
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8mark….hard to narrow it down at the 8th spot.
Baz could be the next Josh Beckett or Tyler Kolek…..btw, both Marlin draftees.
Beck could be the next Trout or the next Tim Beckham.
Smith and Faedo…higher floors.. lower ceilings.
I will let the Phillies surprise me.
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I guess if you have your top 8 on your wish list, then its simple that at least 1 will be there lol
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There’s no way Rogers takes $3.8 under slot. If Smith falls to the Phillies, they will be all over him. If not, expect Haseley/Beck and if by some crazy miracle they’re not available, there’s no way they pass on Faedo
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John – who do you think is the better prospect heading into the draft: AJ Puk in 2016 or Alex Faedo in 2017?
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Puk by a mile and it isn’t even close. When a polished college lefty is on the board, you take him all day long
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john – also, you mentioned the following in the other thread:
a) you don’t think he cracks the top 10;
b) you have him going 14th now to KC.
c) Initially, he’s been hovering in the 20-30 range
Pick #10 slot is $4.377M
Pick #14 slot is $3.728M
Pick #20-29 slot range is from $2.239M to $2.995M
Most experts think that Rogers is not Top 10, thus, doesn’t deserve Top 10 $ of $4.377M or more. Most of the mock drafts have him in the 20s ($2.2M-$3M slot) and your #14 is the highest I’ve seen which has $3.728M and yet you say he wont sign $3.8M??? Saying that means that teams drafting #14 and above need to pay overslot for him??
You have him at #14 and assume he’ll sign the slot money of $3.728M but not sign the $3.8M if the Phils offer him at 1.8?
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I don’t think he cracks the top 10 because teams know he has a strong college commitment. The later he falls, the less over slot you’re obligated to pay him. Going from 26 to 14, tells me some teams might have deals in place if he falls to them.
I misunderstood you’re point. I thought you meant he would take a cut of $3.8 million. If he’s selected at 14th overall by KC, he can easily get $500,000 above slot
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If Charlie Manuel likes Pavin Smith, I think it would be very hard to argue against the selection. I’m not in love with the idea of taking a 1B only. If he can play LF I would like the pick.
I think Hasely is the guy here if he’s on the board but I wouldn’t be opposed to a pitcher.
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Right on with this. If anyone hasn’t done so, check out Smith’s swing. It’s so damn pretty lol
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Haseley has an awful swing- I know i’ve read it’s been described as inside-out, but it looks like he needs a complete overhaul. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone try to hit out of a stance like that.
I think comps of James Loney on Pavin Smith are off-base- that kid has a pretty strong looking build and a beautiful swing. He may by as sure a thing as the Phils have an option to pick. I’d sign him up, let him play first this year then in instructs and spring see if you can get him started down a path to make him a serviceable left fielder.
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I can’t see taking a 1B only player at 1:8 unless he profiles as a batting champion or a legit 3/4 hitter in the lineup for years. Is Smith that highly thought of? I think I would rather take one of the HS OFs with very high upside but still low downside. Adell and Beck fit that profile I think. I agree that I don’t want another #3 starter profile with 1:8. Haseley seems like another Moniak but not quite as good. I can’t see that pick either.
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He profiles as a 3/5. Maybe not the power for cleanup. Batting title contender? Not an unreasonable projection.
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Smith can be a legit #3 hitter because his plate discipline if that good. He’s never going to develop a ton of power, but I’d sign up all day for an MLB 1st baseman that hits .300 every year
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Smith could eventually profile as a Todd Helton type player.
Their physical profiles are very similar and Smith , like Helton 25 years ago, has been consistent since his freshmen year in college. Helton of course, had an OPS of 1 plus for all three years….but college pitchers back then were not , IMO, as skilled on a whole, as they are now, and the SEC was not as dominant conference as it is now..
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Haseley has an awful swing- I know I’ve read it’s been described as inside-out, but it looks like he needs a complete overhaul. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone try to hit out of a stance like that.
I think comps of James Loney on Pavin Smith are off-base- that kid has a pretty strong looking build to go with a beautiful swing. He may by as sure a thing as the Phils have an option to pick. I’d sign him up, let him play first this year then in instructs and spring see if you can get him started down a path to make him a serviceable left fielder.
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If the Phillies select Smith then one other option is to put Hoskins in LF in the FIL or I assume he gets the call to go to the AFL in October.
If Smith’s hit toll is comparable to ’14 Conforto’s or ’15 Benintendi’s, then he will be up in late 2018.
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Weekly AJ Puk update:
they are finally stretching him out and he threw 6.2 innings the other night. had 12 K and 2 BB, gave up 4 hits
He has now thrown 51.1 innings on the year with 81 K and 22 BB
only given up 33 hits and 1 HR
should be getting promoted to AA any day now
Buyers remorse grows daily….
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I view drafting MickeyMo as having Gowdy as well. Both prospects are 3 years younger than Puk and doesn’t show anything less than what they are expected to be. I will feel the same way if the Phils have it the way around but I’m a gambling man so i’ll prefer the Moniak-Gowdy lottery ticket than Puk.
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You may end up being right, but it’s a little unfair, at this point, to be comparing a college pitcher to high school outfielder. We probably won’t know for about 4 or 5 years whether they picked the wrong guy, unless, during the meantime, Puk turns into Randy Johnson.
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I give you one thumbs up out of sympathy and you are honest.
But ‘buyers’ remorse’ sometimes stems form the displeasure of the product one purchased vs the other choice.
Moniak still seems to be a guy who will be everything everyone is projecting him to be. It just may take longer for him to get to the majors vs Puk who had a three year head start on him.
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Really, he’s 22 and still in A-ball? In June?? Pitching in a league were the average k/9 rate is 9!!! Thought he would have been in AA already…
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He was a slam dunk pick, top of the rotation starter
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Gowdy projects to be a potential TOR starter too – and Gowdy and Puk have similar 3-pitch mix – FB, SL and CU. Both SL and CU appears to be the same grade. The separation is in FB which 22-yo Puk has the edge. But Gowdy is only 19-yo, mechanically polished and with clean delivery of this pitchers which normally translates to easier development of pitches. While Puk has control issues event at the age of 22 yo.
And with a lot of physical projection left, Gowdy’s stuff can potentially better than Puk’s. Gowdy’s FB will catch up with Puks and his SL and CU will probably be better.
So getting a potential #2 with a plus hitting, plus defense at a premium position might turn out to be a way better option.
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Tommy, lets see how he does in AA and AAA before you have buyers remorse.
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Where’s the weekly PUK updated? Oh, that’s right he went 3 innings with 5 runs (4 earned) and a HB. But he did have 6K’s
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I was at game. The center fielder misplayed two balls, that led to four runs. He looked great at times. He was at 99 on gun behind home plate
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rocco……you flew out to Modesto, CA and saw the game!
What made you go out to California…ComicCon 2017? 🙂
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operation by Dr Andrews, for hemmorrids
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Hemorrhoids
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oh now I see…….you tore the BCL in your rectum.
Good luck with that.
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We live in the same township as Brendon Little’s family and my daughter goes to the same HS as Brendon Little. Enlow might be a stretch at 2.45 and I like Scherff and his CU who i think is a good option at 2.45 at slot value. Brendon Little can be a good option at 2.45 as well without thinking the shades of a Jesse Biddle (who apparently lives in the same vicinity as us when we’re still living in Chestnut Hill area).
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Chestnut hill is only for rich people nice Kurdt. That is where romus and Former mayor Rendell live. I think Bill Cosby has a home there too.
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I don’t understand how Haesley would be the BPA at 1.8 if he has a low ceiling. He can play CF, but not at Tocci/Quinn levels, and has speed, but not Quinn speed, and I am just not excited. And, if we compare Smith to Conforto and enintendi, it would make more sense if he could play the OF, but I’ve ready nothing like that. So, that leaves me with Beck or Baz.
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BA now has it’s top 500 up http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/ and mlb.com has unveiled it’s top 200 http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/list=phi?list=draft.
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I’ve been beating the drum for Pavin Smith for a while now. His bat and plate discipline are exactly what the Phillies like. I think he’ll move fast through the minor leagues and will be a multi-time all-star. That said, I’m feeling like Shane Baz might be the better pick for this organization at this time. HS pitchers are the most risky selections this high in the draft, but the Phillies are at a point where they can roll the dice on an “ace” type of pitching prospect. They have as deep a system as anyone in MLB. They lack the number of elite prospects that teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have. Baz not only hits 98, but his repertoire is advanced (especially for an 18 YO). He throws five pitches, all already plus or the potential to be plus. The other thing about drafting Baz is he would probably be the most valuable trade piece if the team ends up looking to acquire younger, established players via the trade route instead of free agency.
I don’t get the “Phillies need to pick near ready college players”. This organization is top heavy in upper level position prospects. Yes, they could use upper level difference-making arms. However, if they draft one of the college arms likely available at 1-8, they’re probably three years away from MLB, anyway. Both Bukauskas and Faedo are really two pitch pitchers (fastball/slider). Both have excellent sliders. Bukaskas has a big time fastball, but has size issues (5′ 11″) that could ultimately relegate him to a closer. Faedo’s velo has been up and down all season, and comes with a history of bad knees. Everything about him screams Zac Efflin.
Baz may ask for slot value, but the Philies could still go above slot in round two on a kid like Quentin Holmes. Their 5% over number without losing a future draft pick means they have an extra 435-thousand dollars to spend.
In the meantime, Matt Klentak has a week to send Pat Neshak to the DBacks, Rockies, Indians, Orioles, or Astros for a second round competitive balance pick worth roughly 800-thousand slot dollars.
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Hinkie, good and well thought process. However, I can only envision Pavin as a fixture in the middle of the Phillies lineup for 8 to 10 years. Baz is intriguing, I admit. Beck is more intriguing. I’d rather trade or go FA to acquire a TOR arm in the near future than go the HS draft route.
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Hinkie…spot on with the drafting options.
Can understand your rationale for Smith or Baz.
Though if Beck were also available I would certainly look to be thinking about him also. Of course, if things pan out if they drafting beck, that would also mean in 2/4 years there will be a major thinning of the OF herd.
And that brings me to your final assessment of Klentak.
He seems to be very reluctant to take any risks.
He better watch out…he could go the route of Ben Cherington when he was with the Bosox. Horde your prospects and you may regret it. Be reluctant to trade and the same.
He has opportunities to get a better position to acquire young talent at the beginning of the pipeline and he seems to drag his feet.
I like your idea for the comp picks, I just do not think he thinks like that.
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@hinkie – once again i agree. in my draft board i only limit the Phillies choices at 1.8 to either Smith, Baz, Beck and Rogers (or any of the Top 5 if someone slides at 1.8). No more overthinking and trying to play smart. Just do their homework (i.e. scouting, reviewing tapes, etc) and start talking to agents to ensure signability.
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Darn, I was ready to send Neshek and Kendrick to the Bosox at the deadline for 3B Michael Chavis and P Roniel Raudes. Can’t you find anybody else?
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My take on the draft this year is similar to Hinkie above in that the Phillies system is loaded with average ML talent. They have a number of back of the rotation pitchers, middle relief arms, complimentary position players, etc..
What they are missing are star potential players. My hope for them this year is to take more risk in exchange for loud tools. That’s why I’m not big on them taking someone like Smith or Haesley who will probably play in the majors but at what level.
Much rather see them go after Baz or even a Trevor Rogers or Jorden Adell…
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Adell, if he’s there, could be the right pick
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LHP Trevor Rogers….red-flags anyone?
HS senior who turns 20-years old 5 months from now.
That, to many analysts, is an alarm bell ready to ring.
To some, that may be why he will fall into the late first or into the second round.
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For me age and a HS pitcher doesn’t bother me and assuming he is a good kid with no off field issues. You can miss a year of school for many reasons.
Plus I prefer a power pitcher at that age that hasn’t yet been to college where they just throw the H out of them with no regard to true arm maintenance. I’m probably not taking him at 8 but if you were to tell me he is going to be there for our 2nd pick sign me up.
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The rationale is that older HS kids will have more physical maturity and strength over their younger competitors and therefore able to perform better. However, when they reach levels where age is appropriate then they don’t perform as well.
OTOH, there has been studies showing the younger the HS drafted kid the better long term return.
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DMAR….this 2011 article gives a little insight from where I am coming from when I referred to Trevor Rogers’ advanced age as a high schooler and how it could work against him in teams draft war rooms.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
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That study is about position players only (HS age) and not pitchers with the author saying that the value curve for pitchers is much less predictable because of injuries. I think the age 19 matters much less for a pitcher if at all (because maybe he has been abused less innings-wise by a slower HS career).
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The other two parts of BP’s Rany Jaza. articles goes further into all aspects of age to production for all drafted players…pitchers and position players.
Nevertheless, a 19- year old pitcher should be able to easily dominant almost all 17- year old hitters.
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I dont think he went to southern Romus. They pass everyone
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Yes, that’s a red flag, hence the idea of taking more risk for higher reward…
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There’s no red flags on Rogers. Granted he’s a bit older than the average competition, this kid is the real deal. He’s a tall; projectable lefty with two plus pitches. Scouts also knock him for not facing the greatest competition, but he’s dominated at all the major showcases. The only question is whether or not he’ll honor his strong commit to Texas Tech
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Bleacher Report has a very detailed breakdown including position rankings.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2713785-mlb-draft-big-board-2017-bleacher-reports-complete-predraft-rankings
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Not sure which thread I saw this posted (I’m jumping around so much I can’t keep up with y’all) but the idea of trading Neshek to Balt or Hous for a supplemental pick is a no brainer. I ran it by a friend who said he’d throw in Hellickson and his remaining salary to boot. Takers?
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My final mock fellas, barring any unforeseen circumstances
1. Twins- Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)
2. Reds- Brendan McKay LHP/1B (University of Louisville)
3. Padres- Hunter Greene RHP/SS (Notre Dame HS, CA)
4. Rays- Royce Lewis, SS/OF (JSerra Catholic HS, CA)
5. Braves- MacKenize Gore, LHP (Whiteville HS, NC)
6. A’s- Pavin Smith, 1B (University of Virginia)
7. D’Backs- J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (North Carolina)
8. Phillies- Adam Haseley, OF (University of Virginia)
9. Brewers- Alex Faedo, RHP (Florida)
10. Angels- Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)
11. White Sox- Jordon Adell, OF (Ballard HS, KY)
12. Pirates- Shane Baz, RHP (Concordia Lutheran HS, TX)
13. Marlins- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
14. Royals- Trevor Rogers, LHP (Carlsbad HS, NM)
15. Astros- Brent Rooker, OF (Mississippi State)
16. Yankees- Griffin Canning, RHP (UCLA)
17. Mariners- Jeren Kendall, OF (Vanderbilt)
18. Tigers- DL Hall, LHP (Valdosta HS, GA)
19. Giants- Keston Hiura, 2B/OF/DH (UC Irvine)
20. Mets- David Peterson, LHP (Oregon)
21. Orioles- Jake Burger, 3B (Missouri State)
22. Blue Jays- Alex Lange, RHP (LSU)
23. Dodgers- Sam Carlson, RHP (Burnsville HS, MN)
24. Red Sox- Heliot Ramos, OF (Leadership Christian Academy, P.R.)
25. Nationals- Luke Heimlich, LHP (Oregon State)
26. Rangers- Bubba Thompson, OF (M. Thoolen Catholic HS, AL)
27. Cubs- Pick: Nate Pearson (JC of Central Florida)
28. Blue Jays- Clarke Schmidt, RHP (South Carolina)
29. Rangers- Logan Warmoth, SS (North Carolina)
30. Cubs- Evan White, 1B/OF (Kentucky)
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John, I noticed Beck to the Angels at 10. Hmm, Trout 2.0? That’s ok since he’ll be here in ’21. Guess LAA wants to reload, aye?
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I don’t think Beck is Trout 2.0, but there’s a similar profile that the Angels are all to familiar with. The best case scenario for Beck, is a Wil Myers profile
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The Angels have the worst farm system running with no clear #1. Beck could be that guy
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….and Burger to the O’s, replacing the soon to be gone Machado. Like it.
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Oh yeah. If Burger falls here, the O’s have no choice, but to scoop him up. I’ve seen him as high as 15th, but I’m calling it here. Rooker from Mississippi State will be the surprise guy of the draft who Houston takes. The combination of power and average is something they won’t ignore
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I love Gore! Great stuff and nice name!! why do the Braves get all of them arms?!
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The Braves are wizards at developing young arms. They began stockpiling them like it was going out of style when Hart took over. It all started with Allard and then it morphed into Soroka, Toussaint (via trade), Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Fried (trade), Newcomb (trade), Gohara (trade), Weigel (7th rd. pick), Sims, Wilson, etc..Their scouting department has to be the best running
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So…scrap Luke Heimlich at 25th.
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/06/luke_heimlich_sex_crime_surfac.html
I will be providing a revised one, prior to draft day
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KLaw’s final big board in which he also says, “The 2000 draft, maligned at the time and for years after as one of the worst drafts in memory, has produced eight 30-WAR players, including future Hall of Famer Chase Utley (taken 15th overall)..”
http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7154
8th best player he has: DL Hall, LHP
School: Valdosta (Georgia) HS
Hall’s an athletic lefty with a super-fast arm who will sit 93-94 mph with a plus curveball and average changeup, and he even has some tailing life on the heater.
Sounds perfect to me for an org that has a strategy of “growing the arms and buying the bats”
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Hall is good, but I doubt the Phillies go prep arm, considering they need to continue rebuilding. A guy like Hall is a 3.5-5 year project. They need to take a safe; slam-dunk pick that will help them quickly. Smith, Haseley and Faedo will be the main three. Maybe they go for someone with more pop like White or Burger, but I doubt it
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I will be interested in seeing where Hall, along with JB Bauk. are drafted.
Both are 5’11” something power arms, and can see GMs somewhat wary of their long term futures as starters. Seems all teams want that 6’3″ or taller pitcher.
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FA will be the best way for the Phils to get help and plug the holes. Middleton says he will spend – and top players will be available in the next 2-3 years. The Phils will have $$ and the biggest contractual obligation starting 2018 is only $3.35M for Herrera. Cesar and Galvis are heading into their 2nd and 3rd Arbitration while Franco, Rupp and Garcia are heading into their 1st yr Arbitration – i don’t see any big commitments there as the Phils can fill the rest of the team with Team Control salaries will all their prospects in the upper minors ready to contribute in the MLB. NYY will have at least $100M higher, BOS with $130M and LAD with $150M.
The Phils cannot rely on safe player with low ceiling to help them in 2-3 years – they already have a lot of them in the upper minors.
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Who at AA and AAA are safe players?
Alfaro’s plate discipline is a major red flag. He’s almost out of development time so he’s coming to the Majors next year to back up Knapp. Can he adjust in MLB?
Nick Williams, again, plate discipline is major concern.
Quinn has major durability concerns.
Cozens is a poor man’s Joey Gallo without the ability to play 3rd.
Hoskins – I think he’s a safe player. Not argument from me.
Crawford – He’s played great defense and gets on base but I worry how the on base skills will translate to MLB when pitchers realize he’s incapable of driving the ball. He needs to fix whatever mechanical issues are causing him to make weak contact in hitters counts.
Kingery – looks like a future star, no complaints from me.
Pullin – 4th/5th outfielder/platoon guy.
Tocci – the obvious concerns.
Even if you’re confident in these guys I think it would be very wise to consider consolidating this depth into a rotation piece like Sonny Gray. If you draft a near MLB ready bat with #8 it would ease the blow of trading some of these guys. Likewise if you draft a near MLB ready pitcher it eases the blow of guys like Eflin, Thompson, and Appel underperforming.
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Don’t get me wrong, I like our guys. I think out of the AAA guys the one I’m most confident in is Cozens. But we’re in a crucial point in our rebuild and the Phillies need guys who will be ready by 2019. Taking a HS player that will be up in 2020-2021 isn’t worth it to me. The only exception I would make is Baz.
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^^^ just to clarify, again (I wish we could edit posts!) When I say I’m most confident in Cozens I mean most confident in our outfielders. I separate Crawford & Kingery as we’re not talking about drafting an infielder and I already mentioned I see Hoskins as a safe player.
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Last thing they need is safe, lower ceiling pick to help them in 2-3 years. They need all-star caliber players who will be there in 3-4 years. Smith, Haseley, and Faedo are not good picks for them at 8..
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Absolutely agree.
Look at Conforto, Nola, Schwarber, Benintendi, Happ, etc. Are these guys low ceiling guys? Absolutely not.
A lot of the guys we have that are close to MLB ready have some major holes on the offensive side (namely, pitch recognition) while the arms we have at AAA project to be back end of the rotation guys. I don’t think the franchise is in a position where they can count on those players while waiting on a prep player.
If they want to take a prep player with their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc pick I’m fine with that but they need someone who is going to play in the Majors at 8 and soon.
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Here are the notables the Phillies should consider at 45th overall and 83rd:
45th: Quentin Holmes, Brian Miller, Brendon Little and Luke Heimlich (If still on the board)
83rd: Charlie Barnes, Mason House, Drew Rasmussen (If available)
Out of these players, if Heimlich is off the board, give me Holmes. Based on what I’ve seen and read, he’s basically Roman Quinn 2.0. Holmes is the fastest player in the draft, as was Quinn in 2011.
At 83rd, give me Barnes. He pitches in the SEC, has a low walk rate and advanced change. The knock against him? He tops out at 91, which isn’t the Phillies style. His ceiling is a number 5 starter that you can get well-below slot
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From Eric Longenhagen’s chat yesterday:
Patrick: Eric, If you were in the Phillies war room, who would you suggest they take at #8 (making reasonable assumptions about who will / won’t be there)?
Eric A Longenhagen: If Haseley is there he’d be a fine pick, if not I’d be on Peterson, I like Baz, Hall.
RP: You mentioned the Phils trying to float someone, possibly Rogers, to 45. Any names linked to them at 8 on an underslot deal? Would love Hiura there.
Eric A Longenhagen: No names, just think they like Rogers but 8 is too early and the only way to get him to 45 (which would be very risky) is what you described.
CJL: Unsure how long this data has been tracked for amateur arms, but how does Baz’s spin rate compare to other recent pitchers drafted in the 1st round?
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. Let me take a peek at some numbers very quickly.
Eric A Longenhagen: better than Ian Anderson and Jason Groome
Eric A Longenhagen: better than Pint
Eric A Longenhagen: Braxton Garrett‘s are close
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s what I’ve got on hand.
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Hinkie…..if Klentak and the crew decide to go with Baz and in some ways, Beck…..I would be impressed and would respect their decision for taking that risk. Any of the college guys , except for Wright and McKay are the ‘safe and secure’ All-State pick.
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Yes, Romus. This team is going to need some impact players in order to compete for championships. I’m confident they’ll attack the FA market when star players (Otani & Machado) become available. Hopefully, some of their prospects blossom into all-star caliber types. And … they need to hit on these next few drafts. They may as well go for broke the next two or three years. They’ll be picking near the top of the drafts. It will hopefully be the last times they’ll be drafting that high for quite a while. That means it will be the last few times for them to have a realistic shot (or, at least, the best chance) to draft a high impact prospect.
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I still don’t think there is enough upside with Haseley, and not very interested in a “safe” pick. I agree with the earlier posters that, with all due respect to John Y, who has done a fantastic job for us with this Draft, closeness to the Majors without much upside is not what we need. We need “cream of the crop” talent, something that is lacking presently, and that usually requires a bit of risk. Not Hewitt or Greene risk, those were idiotic, but some risk. Beck, Baz, Hall fit for me. With all the talk about prep arms, Cole Hamels was deemed a risky pick because he had suffered a broken forearm. This is all with the disclaimer that if any of the Top 5 fall, I take one of them.
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matt13 …agree with you. When it comes to Baz…I think I am leaning his way.
But where Baz falls in the draft all depends on how confident teams are that they can sign him. If a team like the Phillies believe he can be pried away from his commitment to TCU, he will go 8 I would think, if they are wiling to risk on a HS pitcher.
His stuff easily qualifies him for a top-30 look. If his commitment appears too strong to be overcome, he might warrant a flier in a later round but his TCU commitment is really strong and he would probably only settle for top ten bonus money
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Like Romus and Matt, I am in the Baz camp.
I have gone from:
1A Pavin Smith
1B Shane Baz
To:
1 Shane Baz
2 Pavin Smith
3 Trevor Rogers (at 1.5 million dollar discount)
Option 3 (Trevor Rogers at a discount) would allow me to target a couple of other tall, lanky HS pitchers in the next few rounds … Tommy Mace (Florida committ) and Hugh Fisher (Vandy committ). I also like Mark Vientos (probably not going to get to #45), Quentin Holmes and Brendon Little as possibilities in the second round.
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Thanks a million for the shout out, Matt! I appreciate providing my time! I would have no problems with the Phillies taking Beck, as he was my pick in three previous mock drafts. I changed my mind for 3 reasons:
1.) Beck has an injury history. In May of 2016 he tore his ACL, so that might be something the Phillies stay away from, even though Beck has shown no signs of the injury recurring.
2.) Beck is from North Carolina and he has a commitment to the Tar Heels. Some believe he’s going to school.
3.) Beck in wood-bat leagues has an ugly track record. Maybe it’s due to his injury, but in wood-bat showcases his skills haven’t carried over well. That could make teams real nervous.
Here is the best case scenarios for the Phillies in this draft:
-If Smith is still on the board, the Phillies should be all over him
-If Smith is gone, in a draft short on college bats, Haseley would play here
-If both are gone, or you can get Beck under-slot, go Beck
-If Beck isn’t in play, it’s time to start thinking bold. Maybe Jordon Adell?
-If the Phillies can somehow entice the better prep arms Baz, Rogers, Hall, to forgo college to sign under, target these as a last resort
I can’t wait, folks! After today, we are literally 4 days away from draft time 🙂
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Minor league thoughts site has a really good reason not to draft Pavin Smith.
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Phillies need pitching and elite power period . There a fast team already they need power hitters .
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About college commitments … I know of only one HS player who is undraftable because of his college commitment. Joe Boyle opted out of the draft in writing because he is dead set on attending Notre Dame. I would bet my house that the Phillies’ 4.78 million dollar slot money (for the 1-8 pick) will buy any HS player away from his college commitment. Baz, Beck, even Hunter Greene is not going to leave that kind of money on the table to risk blowing out his arm (or incurring some other career threatening injury) for the university of their choice.
In almost all cases, the threat of a strong college commitment is just a way for a prospect (really his agent) to squeeze the most money out of a team as possible. If the player was so dead set on attending school, he would do what Joe Boyle did and notify the commissioner in writing.
Certainly, players choose to go to school if they’re not drafted high enough and aren’t offered enough money. Nick Lodolo turned down Pittsburgh last year after the Pirates drafted him at 1-45 (1.5 million slot). But, like I mentioned earlier, the Phillies 1-8 pick comes with enough slot money (4.78 million) to lure away any prospect from college. Whoever the Phillies draft at 1-8 will sign.
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Good points. Even if a kid is offered a full scholarship, most bonuses are structured nowadays to provide college tuition to high school athletes who decide to defer college. An agent would have to be very certain that not signing for a bonus in a high school athlete’s draft year would guarantee a bigger payday 2-3 years down the road. That’s a heck of a gamble.
And D1 schools only have 11.7 scholarships to distribute to an entire team. So many baseball players are attending school on a 25% scholarship. Only a max of 27 can be on scholarship. So, 8 players on a 35-man roster can be paying their own way. Read this 2015 Baseball America article for an idea how difficult it is to mete out scholarships for college baseball coaches.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/stretching-scholarship-dollars-key-college-success/#hq6sgL8gAYKeSgYA.97
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Brady Aiken disagrees, but yes, as a general rule the college commit stance is a tactic for agents to extort more money from teams. Players don’t want to tip their hand early because it could cost them money
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I thought it was HOU who balked on Aiken by lowering the bonus from $6.5M to $5M due to health issues which was eventually proven true when Aiken subsequently underwent TJ surgery? So in essence Aiken didn’t sign because of disagreement and not due to strong college commitment as he went to a college program that made him eligible again in the next coming draft.
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KuKo…you are correct.
Remember Jacob Nix was the innocent bystander in that fiasco. The Astros were portrayed as the villains. They were the ones who told Aiken they were going to sign him, and as long as Aiken signed, they could use the slotted savings for Nix. The Astros now realize they made the mistake of bringing both players in at once, never imagining Aiken’s MRI would reveal a partial tear.
Now, with the Astros losing Aiken and their slot amount from the draft pool, they no longer had the money to pay Nix his $1.5 million.
And then the legal battles began.
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the Nix pick is a lost opportunity but the Aiken turned out to be a better for HOU as it gives them Alex Bregman. By the way, both Nix and Aiken played in IMG Academy after not signing with HOU.
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CBS Sports mock draft out today has us taking Beck. Pavin #6 to A’s. Reason being that the Phillies want raw talent over polish. Not sure that’s the case this time around. College talent would expedite the rebuild.
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Free Agents will expedite the rebuild 🙂
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Baz is my guy if he is there I’m sold. His video is outstanding. Still raw but his mix of pitches and his athleticism is off the charts
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Top tier FAs will expedite the rebuild, just to clarify your comment, DMAR. But yes, point well taken.
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If Smith slips past the A’s, he’s ours for the taking. Top 5 are set. DBacks don’t need a 1b anytime soon.
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8mark…check out BA’s All- American teams …Pavin Smith not on any of them.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2017-america-teams/#6orh5vPGp7dkoOZ3.97
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I know, Romus. He’s ranked #15 on their top prospects.
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Don’t recognize a lot of those names, Romus. But I’m liking Jake Burger more and more. Maybe underslot him and go high on 2nd rounder? That’ll also put some heat on Franco as an aside.
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Jake Burger has the power….just not sure about his conference’s pitching skills.
Last year it was Kyle Lewis’ question mark.
Cannot help to think how Mike Ott was going to be the next power 3rd baseman out of U of Connecticut and how did that turn out.
BTW…..factoid……Pete Incaviglia holds the NCAA record for HRs in three-years no less, for a college career…I think 100 at Oklahoma State.
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Burger team 1 name , Ryan Howard Missouri State is known for there pitchers . There team is good this yr beat many good teams . They might be in the CWS .
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$$ will expedite the rebuild and the WS trophy! $400M to Machado and $350M to Otani! With the 2 in the team, young and controllable solid pieces and a deep farm — the Phils can make a sustainable run without being broke!
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That’s pretty much why I changed my mind from Beck in the first 3 mocks, to Haseley in the 4th. College would expedite the rebuild lol
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College dude might go up the ladder more quickly but no college prospect are considered game changers at 1.8. even if it is Haseley, he might only be a year ahead of Mickey Moniak who I bet most projects as the better option at OF.
I still have Smith as #1 option since he can be big at CBP, then Baz, Beck and Rogers at #2, #3, #4, respectively. One of the 4 prospects will be available at 1.87 and will be to happy to sign with the slot value.
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i mean pick 1.8 not 1.87
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IMO, Haseley is not in the Conforto/Benintendi hitting class.
His first two years at Virginia he was average and only prospered this last year…hit wise and also power wise.
Not sure why the Phillies would go that route with him since he probably has to project as a CFer and not have the corner OFer power numbers.
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Updated mock 4.0 pick:
Subtract: 25 Luke Heimlich
Add: Tanner Houck, RHP (Missouri)
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…..and we’re holding you to it, John!
Great job, by the way.
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I’ll take a mock shot. What have I to lose?
(Not what I want but what I think will be)
1 Twins – Hunter Greene rhp/ss
2 Reds – Kyle Wright rhp
3 Padres – Royse Lewis ss
4 Rays – Brendan McKay 1b/lhp
5 Braves – MacKenzie Gore lhp
6 A’s – Pavin Smith 1b
7 D’Backs – Adam Haseley of
8 Phillies – Austin Beck of
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8mark -Mock 2017-1.0
Will tomorrow’s Mock-2017-2.0, be Baz at 8?
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No
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Burger would be more intriquing to me if his chances of staying at third base were higher- would take the power over the hit tools of Haseley and Smith, at a position where it’s Franco and nothing else right now.
Beck seems a little too risky that high. Baz is the option I like best. I’ve been to TCU- i cant imagine a kid giving up millions to go there.
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Burger is not a power only guy. He has walked more than he K’d this season and holds a .448 OBP
anybody remember Troy Glaus
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DMAR….still conference play in the MVC may not be at the same level that the SEC/PAC12/ACC pitching is at.
Phillies have drafted out of that conference in lower rounds…Darick Hall…David martinelli just recently, but it is a leap of faith with Burger.
Senzel last year played in the SEC and the Reds went with him and he is doing well.
Burger may be the next Troy Glaus or the next Mike Ott out of Storrs.
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I’m leaning Arm Romus we’ll have to see how it unfolds…
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Ok
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BA’s John Manuel’s Mock Draft 4.0:
Phillies now with pitcher JB Buk…..
No more on the wagon with Pavin Smith.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-4-0/#oOahjLXjSlD6oUsx.97
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Wow! Romus, I’m crushed. Pavin drops to #19 Giants? Charlie Manuel likes him a lot more than John Manuel.
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What Manuel to believe?
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Shane Baz should be the pick if he’s there assuming the Phils already soured on Pavin Smith. If the Phils passed on Pavin Smith, it means that they have trust on Hoskins to be their 1B.
JB is 2 1/2 years older (than Baz) has back of the pen profile written all over him with his plus FB-SL combo. The Phils need a starter not a pen arm — Baz on the other hand is already showing + FB and potentially 2 + breaking balls and a developing CU — that’s a potential TOR profile considering Baz’s physicality as well.
Kilome-Gowdy-Sixto-Baz-Medina #realbabyaces is a good young rotation the Phils can have by 2020.
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KuKo..agree
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with Arano, Edgar Garcia and the giants of the 2016 Rule 4 draft – the Phils should find back of the pen arms option in the same time JB develops into a major league. Add the possible SP turned RP candidates (i,e. Appel) and current pen arms in the upper minors (i.e. JDT, Rivero, Davis, Singer) the Phils have clear options for a backend RP arms. They need to start an “arms war” with ATL and NYM as both teams appears to be the top competitors in the division when the time the Phils are contending.
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Hmm his remarks makes you think that the Phillies pick was just taken . So plan B,C is a question mark I Still like BAZ.
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I would think plan A is Haseley with plan B being a pitcher since most of the mocks I’ve seen drop today have Beck going to the A’s.
If the Dbacks take Haseley I wouldn’t be opposed to Peterson, Faedo, or Bukauskas. Maybe they can get one of these guys to sign far enough below slot that they get can get a higher upside guy with #45.
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hadnt noticed Gary Varsho’s kid as a possible first rounder before, named after Darren Daulton. Pretty cool.
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Beck will be good
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It would appear, Baz and Beck are higher ceiling than most of all the college guys outside the top college players of Wright and McKay.
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I’ve cooled on Beck a little. I’m a little concerned that he performed poorly with Wood in his hands…
In fact I don’t like any of the HS position players in this draft at 8 unless it’s Greene and there is no way he falls to us.
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The scenario i hate is to see is as follows:
SD picks Gore at 1.3
ATL (who appears to be growing arms) picks Baz instead at 1.5 to continue building arms
OAK picks Smith at 1.6
ARI (who loves Lewis) is popping champagne as Lewis fall to them at 1.7
PHI – who’s top on their draft board?!? No Pavin Smith, No Shane Baz?!? This is where i start to be concerned since the risk-averse McKlentak front office might go for a safe pick like Haseley, Faedo or JB. If this situation happens the Austin Beck is a concern, I like the Phils to sign Trevor Rogers underslot and use the savings to sign any HS prospect that falls in the late round.
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Agree. Of top guys the 2 I don’t like at 1.8 are JB and Haseley. My preferences are Baz and Beck.
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I could be wrong but I see zero chance the Phillies take Haseley. They took Moniak at 1.1 and gave him $6.1M. Moniak will be at Clearwater next year which is where Haseley could be. At best Haseley would be at Reading.
None of the college guys excite me so I would pick among the HS kids of Beck, Baz or Addel. I am not interested in playing the underslot game and picking an inferior prospect to save on signing bonus money to possible get some HS kid later.
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so you don’t like the Moniak pick (to get Gowdy and you can add Kyle Young and others where savings were used), Correa (to get McCullers), etc. The MLB draft is all about projection and these projections can literally turn upside down in 12 months.
The over(under) slotting is a scouting game and players ranked lower in the MLB (or alike) rankings doesn’t necessarily mean they are inferior prospect and will turn out to be inferior MLB players. The slotting system is the reason why i love the MLB draft than the NBA, NFL and NHL version.
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i am not expert on draft but I always look up our picks for video. Gowdy had no video if i remember right. which to me means he was a reach at top ten rounds. could be wrong.
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at $3.5M signing, everybody seemed to agree that it was an overpayment for a 1.42 pick. But after a year (and reading thru various Phillies outlets and videos on youtube and phillies site), i’m glad that the Phils took Gowdy (regardless of the cost) when they have a chance as Gowdy appears to be a potential TOR.
The Phils spent > $$ to Buccholz and other still stiffs like MAG and others so a $3.5M investment is worth the cost.
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i dont think he was criticizing Moniak pick, just saying Haseley’s value is in being a centerfielder, and they already have an overall #1 at the same position and at most a level behind in the system, so picking Haseley doesnt make sense to him.
do you think they would have had to spend much more than 6.1 on whomever they might have picked at #1 though?
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RAEF – I’m responding to the 2nd part/paragraph of post – where NL said
“I am not interested in playing the under slot game and picking an inferior prospect to save on signing bonus money to possible get some HS kid later”
You’re talking about the 1st paragraph.
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Did anyone catch the Johnny Alamarez press conference today? I caught a little bit of it during my lunch break but I took away:
1) they have 1.8 locked in as College Hitter, College Pitcher, and High School pitcher.
2) He mentioned a college hitter they want at 1.8 but if he isn’t there they will adjust (I took this to mean Haseley).
3) The Phillies see this as a deep draft for college pitching and would go that route if they have their druthers (throughout the course of the draft).
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JL26……concerning number 2……I think if it isn’t Smith , they adjust to a college pitcher or the HS pitcher….which I assume will be college pitcher in Faedo or JB Bauk… and HS pitcher , Baz or Rogers.
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I would think those are the names as well unless they decide to cut a deal with a guy to pick up someone in the 2nd round like the Braves did at 3 last year.
I’m really torn on where I want them to go. My concerns with our upper level pitching are well known throughout this thread so in an ideal world I would want a guy who can move through the system quickly (preference out of the college guys would be Faedo or Peterson) but Baz has future stud written all over him if he develops.
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Yes……I guess the question will come down to how much risk will the Phillies be willing to take. A HS player and pitcher with the most risk and college players as the least.
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Where did you read its a deep draft for pitchers>>>
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Michael BaumannFollow
Staff Writer, The Ringer
Jun 9
I Hate the 2017 MLB Draft
From Kris Bryant to George Springer, the athletic college position player has proved to be the best kind of prospect: high floor and high ceiling. But this year’s class is filled with the worst kind of prospect: the amateur first baseman.
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rocco…..Johnny A. said it today.
http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-phillies/phillies-expect-come-away-mlb-draft-plenty-college-pitching
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I agree that while Haseley is a nice player, he wouldn’t make sense considering Moniak last year. If Smith is dropping, they might be able to underslot him and go higher on 2.45. If HS bats are out, then no Beck.
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I think that’s the beauty of taking a center fielder and being deep at that position in general. The Phillies have shown they like to rotate these guys throughout the minor league level (case in point: Quinn playing corners while Cozens plays CF on occasion) so I don’t see that as affecting their desire to choose a CF. They can both play the position 50/50 while getting time in the corners or as DH’s if they need a blow.
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This is an acceptable approach if: a) the CF is the BPA when it’s the Phils turn to pick; and b) if they don’t have significant holes to fill where similar (if not better) value is/are available.
As we speak, Haseley doesn’t address both concerns and apparently CF is the deepest position in the farm where options project to have better tools than Haseley.
In addition, Haseley doesn’t even have a game changing tool — the Phils is in dire need of power arms, power bat and game changing players.
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The Phillies need good players period. As I said above the guys we have in the system aren’t guaranteed to succeed (nor are they guaranteed to fail but it’s more likely than not that they will). Our best outfield prospect (Moniak) is 19 and in low A. Behind him is Cozens who has obvious problems with the strikeouts but I happen to like a lot and think could hit clean-up for 5-6 years, Williams who struggles to draw walks, Quinn who at this point is probably a reserve outfielder, Pullin who is probably a reserve outfielder, and Tocci who, again is probably a reserve outfielder. At the major league level Herrera and Altherr have produced very well and have solidified positions but adding more depth never hurts. We’re deep at this position but not deep enough where I would be opposed to adding another guy, especially another potential every day player. Add Haseley and maybe the Phillies become more comfortable trading from their AAA depth.
I’m not convinced Haseley isn’t the BPA available. His bat’s taken a major step forward and he has a very low floor. He doesn’t have the most upside but he has major league tools and the ability to move through the system quickly. Most mocks don’t have him falling below pick 10. Charlie Manuel’s seen him and if he didn’t like him as a hitter we wouldn’t hear his name tied to the Phillies.
I think the likelihood of him being available here is slim to none, the only way he gets past Arizona is if Lewis falls and they take him instead so this whole conversation is probably moot. At this point we’re probably looking at a pitcher. Based on Almarez’s comments I would expect them to go with a college pitcher but I wouldn’t be opposed to Baz and it seems like they’re considering it.
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Hey guys, just to break for a moment and think about what we’re tossing around here. I mean, this is what it’s all about. 3 days away from 3 days of glorious breaking down what couldashouldawoulda….does it get any better than this for a baseball fan, except for game 7?
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Absolutely. Cannot wait to have a few new names to root for and a few names to debate next week! The way this season’s gone it’ll be nice to dream about the future for a little bit.
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one guys thoughts on this draft class:
https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-draft-first-base-prospects-brendan-mckay-eric-hosmer-7c4345729889
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MLB.COM earlier this afternoon with their updated mock has Pavin Smith going 1-8.
I just read several mostrecent mocks. ALL have Wright, Greene, Gore, McKay and Lewis going in that order. Deals have likely been struck in many cases. A’s are harder to read. Could be Beck or JBB. DBacks seem to love Haseley. John Manuel of BA says Phillies have moved on from Pavin while Johnny A indicated a college bat is what they prefer.
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Nope Twins had a workout with Greene today.
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Smith has been dropping in some recent mocks (such as BA), into the teens. Not sure why, other than perhaps being a 1B without a lot of power.
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Based on Johnny A’s comments “We will get our share of college pitchers that are big and strong,” I think it will be Alex Faedo. I hope not id rather Beck, Baz, or JBB. I think they will regret passing on Beck I think he is a star in the making. Plus he is a RH OF which we dont have. Moniak, Randolph, Cozens, Pullin, Williams, Herrera, All left handed hitters.
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I will be PISSED if it’s Alex Faedo. Stop giving me 3s and 4s. Major league rotations are not rebuilt with 3s and 4s. More and more I am not liking Johnny A as an evaluator of pitching talent. I don’t CARE that he’s close to being ready for the big leagues. Ready for what? A 4 ERA? No thanks.
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True. There will be no pitchers available at 1-8 worth taking that high. Go college bat. Don’t want JBB or Faedo.
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Catch,
I’m with you on this one. We will never build a championship team unless we go for excellence.
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Ty Catch22 finally someone who tells it like it is .I Cant stand all these guys we have who cant break a egg, and dont have great control which you need . I want a ace or take a position player with big upside i dont care what position he plays.
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Yes – agreed. The first time I saw Jake Thompson pitch I was livid. I thought this guy is supposed to have top of the rotation potential and he is throwing 91 MPH – who is scouting these guys? Literally the last thing I want to hear when they draft a guy is how good if a curveball he has – that’s how losing organizations draft pitchers. I want the next Max Scherzer not the next Kevin Gross or Gavin Floyd.
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Pitchers I like , Baz, Griffin Canning, Rogers, Abbott, Peterson. Now Johnny A has stated unless he feels the pitcher is a TOR he won’t Draft him high in the First. The bats I like Beck, Burger, . Now I heard the Phillies were impressed with Warmoth when they were now at the tournament. I also heard Gore might slip. So unless there’s something else I hear my guess 1 A BAZ 1 B Gore 1 C Beck.
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First I’ve heard that Gore might slip. Why? All the chatter and mocks I’ve seen have him going no later than 1:5.
Unless there is some new development or concern with Gore, I’d be very surprised if he slips to the Phillies at 1:8.
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Every yr you have 1 prospect that slips for no reason Gore maybe it.
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Tim…I think I agree with you on this one…Baz with the first pick.
High risk-High reward. Team already has a lot of 3 thru 5s in the system.
Maybe a Baz selection , along with Gowdy and maybe a few of the young Latin arms will mature into TOR guys.
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Plus Phillies were on him Baz then faded Abit with is a normal draft process . I really like about at 2 .8 . Now the way JBB comes into play if the Phillies if the think they have no future closer.
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Tim, please repeat that in English.
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8mark:
Translation……”Plus, (the) Phillies were in on him, Baz, then ( they) faded (from him) a bit , which is normal (in the ) draft process. I really like (him) out about at 2.8 (45th pick). Now, the way JB Baukaukas comes into play, if the Phillies think they (will) have a need for a future closer”
…you will get it in time.
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Baz at 2:8 is absurd.
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You speak ‘Tim’ fluently, Romus. Thanks
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I type Evan Abbott and auto correct changed it too about.finally somebody gets my lingo thinking is a good practice .
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O I meant Abbott at 2.8 not Baz .
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I agree Romus, Catch is correct. Enough with 4/5s, especially in the 1st Rd. Faedo does not have an upside and JB’s upside is a closer. Go Baz or Beck. Almaraz likes some College Pitchers? Go get them later on. I want a future Star at 1.8.
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matt13…I think , if hearing JohnA’s words…..the draft has multiple college :big and strong’ arms…so I am hoping that is their choices from 45 and down.
That first one….Baz or Beck…..take the risk.
it isn’t like they are drafting 25th anymore and going for the Golsons and Hewitts of the world who were great athletes but hoping they will eventually develop to hit a curve ball.
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In his philly.com article this morning, Matt Breen lists 5 players to watch for.
Beck, Faedo, Smith, Haseley or Baz.
Johnny A seemed confident they’ll draft several big swift-thru-the-system college arms, but I hope one is NOT in the 1st round. I’m good with Smith, Haseley or even Beck. Yes, Romus….I’m still cravin’ Pavin. And I’m seeing updated mocks with him still going 1-8.
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8mark…….Smith just makes no sense to me if he cannot play LF.
One of Hoskins and even ToJo will be at first for the next few years.
and to trade them from a position of surplus inventory means low returns…plus they are first baseman anyway so the return will be lower from a positional stand point..
Two teams that could use ToJo’s power bat now however are the Mariners and the Yankees…both AL teams….would be somewhat adventurous on Klentak’s part if would make that type of trade next month, then bring up Hoskins.
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I understand what you’re saying, Romus. But I’m saying Mattingly – Helton – Votto – PAVIN!
As for trading TJ, I would run him and Hellickson (or even better, Neshek) by the Yankees and see who they’d offer in return.
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Pavin Smith was in town to work out for the Phillies today.
For me, it’s still:
1. Shane Baz
2. Pavin Smith
3. Trevor Rogers (at a discount)
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Johnny A’s talk about arms may have been posturing. Though he may have meant later rounds.
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May have been driving down Pavin Smith’s asking price.
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Cone to think of it, BA dropping him to #19 may also have helped that cause. Perhaps they underslot him and nail a really good 2nd rounder.
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I would add Beck along to your list of Baz and Smith. At least one of these three will be available at 1:8. If not. it means Lewis or Gore fell for some reason and can be selected by the Phillies.
I can’t see Trevor Rogers at 1:8 unless the discount is enormous, which seems very doubtful.
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http://usatodayhss.com/2017/mlb-draft-high-school-hunter-greene-mckenzie-gore interesting piece Baz , T Rodgers.
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https://d1baseball.com/news/d1pbr-podcast-experts-draft/ talk about Helium Trevor Rodgers to Zona at 7. Phillies get JBB pass on Baz ?
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Tim…….Trevor Rogers is that guy lately who is ascending up the draft boards and being compared to Madison Bumgarner. IMO, one little thing is being overlooked…his age. Bumgarner was two years younger , at 17 when drafted by the Giants in ’07, then Rogers is now, who is 19 and will be 20 in 5 months. Some say age is irrelevant, especially when it comes to pitchers. I think it is significant both for pitchers and hitters..
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Yes they know that it doesn’t seem to matter to them . It’s seems a Lefty with control and pitches bucks the normal.
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CWS update Louisville, Texas A&M are in , Oregan st walking all over Vandy and Wright. Feado had a good day 4 ing 9 k. My dark horses teams are still alive Missouri State and long beach state.
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