General Discussion – Week of 7-28-2014 – This Trade Deadline’s Really Dragging On Edition

Weekly Discussion

Mets series and Trade Deadline this week. Seems like waiting on the trade deadline gets harder and harder the more we hear that Amaro may not be looking to move pieces as liberally as many of us would like. I start thinking it’s going to be like the boring year we had last year and I get a case of the sads. Why Rube? *sobs* Why won’t you move veterans for the good of the future? Eat the money, Rube! *wipes nose* Come on and make some trades already *takes pacifier, sits in corner, refreshing MLBTR*.

154 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-28-2014 – This Trade Deadline’s Really Dragging On Edition”

  1. Well, at least it’s a virtual certainty my #33 Majestic Phillies jersey will remain representative of a current member of the roster for at least the rest of this season.

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  2. Bootsy Doo says: Take those sads and turn ’em into nads. It takes ’em to be power-revved like Bootsy Doo! Also, don’t look not but the Chooch is silently on the market. My source is my gut. And ya gotta trust Bootsy Doo!

    Bootsy Doo owwwwt!

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  4. This entire organization is a fiasco. The President gives the keys of a well-oiled machine to a guy (team in its prime, loaded farm system, open check book, etc), and 5 years later it’s the biggest joke in baseball. I understand that things happen, but there are innumerable mistakes, misjudgements, and errors made by both of these guys.

    We’re now is such a sad state of affairs: 3rd highest payroll/5th worst overall record in MLB, contracts so bad and/or and littered with clauses, player options etc that we will get little to no trade return for Burnett, Lee, Rollins, Utley, Papelbon, and Howard, and a fledgling farm system (although the last 2 drafts have been somewhat encouraging). The only players we can MAYBE get any kind of return for are Bastardo and Byrd, and what they can get for us is most likely nominal.

    The ownership group has to be out and out disgusted with the front office and product on the field. I don’t live in Philly any more, but if I did, I’d vehemently refuse to purchase a game ticket, jersey, hat, anything with the Phillie logo on it until executive leadeship decides to get their act together and move on from this dumpster fire. 3rd highest payroll, and trotting out this drivel is inexcusible and should not be tolerated by anyone from the die hard fans down to the casual ones.

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    1. Many bad decisions for sure. One of my least favorites was trading lee. We got nothing in return and could have had him with halladay and hamels an extra year while he was in his prime. We let werth walk and had no replacement. We lock up howard when he didn’t even need an extension. If I’m not mistaken he had another year or two before free agency (I believe it was 2) Buy high on pence and sell low. Meanwhile, the goofball of a right fielder wins a world series with the giants and is an allstar.

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      1. I agree with all points with the caveat that, while these were major blunders, only the tip of the iceberg. Nothing for Victorino, too much for Revere, signing Paps and Ibanez (which forfeited a 1st rounder in each respective year), the Dan Wetzler situation, and the refusal to incorporate anything but a smidgen of sabremetrics into their evaluation/scouting. I’m sure there’s more, but i’m too busy with work and disgusted to dig further.

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        1. I don’t know if we gave up too much for revere. Worley was hurt and got rocked in MIN and may had been getting beat up in the minors until this year. He is having a good year in AAA however with a 2.95 era, but hasn’t contributed to the big league club. I think they shoould’ve given worley a minor league deal. He’s pitching well for the pirates and would be an improvement over hernandez and kendrick. Overall I don’t know if either team really won that trade although theres still time to see. Revere may somehow learn to work the count and increase his obp. or may could come up and pitch well for the twins.

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          2. he can’t work the count,having zero power there is no need for the pitcher not to lay it across the plate. single is the same as a walk

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      2. 2 years left on Howard when he got extension; his contract was obsolete before it even began. If they had even ripped up the old one, they would have started it when he was still producing, and this would be the last year. Instead, they got zero production for $125Million. I agree about lee, and we end up trading more for Oswalt than we got back for Lee. Horrible decision making.

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        1. Perhaps it would have proved best for Ruben to ‘front-load’ the Howard contract. Paying Howard upwards of $30M in the first three years , while dropping down to approx $18/20M the last two years. It would be easier in any movements

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          1. Is griping about the Blue Route still a thing or was that a throw back? I’m not around the area for about 15 years now, so I have no idea.

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            1. No one really complains about it anymore, unless they’re being sarcastic and want to see how long you’ve lived in the area.

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      3. The worst for me was oswalt. The Phils were going to win the division hands down and had enough starting pitching to win in the post season. Instead they were hell bent on getting a guy who had little desire to play much longer and had to serenade him to go to philly. Poor

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    2. I think it’s important to note, while there have been some poor picks, singleton, happ, gose, Santana, villar, Trevor May soon, cosart, are all drafts are mlb players and the entire ml pen are homegrown drafts, not high ones either-except pap. Giles, diekman, Hollands, bastardo, de fratus

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    2. Yeah, but there’s often buzz leading up to a deal, and the buzz yesterday from Olney (I think) was that teams are getting a feeling from the Phils like they aren’t comfortable dealing right now.

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  6. So the Phillies are linked to the Jays LHP Sean Nollin, their 11th rated prospect by MLB.com. Velo @ 90 and coming off rehab.
    I wonder what Ruben will surrender to them in exchange!

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  7. It is to the point where we cannot realistically hope for anything from this deadline. I don’t think Hamels goes, because the ask is too high, although I agree it should be. Utley stays, and no one else brings a thing. Maybe, Lee in August, after 3 excellent starts, and that might require a good deal of luck.

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  8. Right but teams that were on our deal list have found sellers elsewhere. Detroit is a perfect example.

    I am going to add to Rob’s post in the Box Score thread. If we have a fire sale and trade Hamels, Papelbon, Byrd, Bastardo, and Ruiz here is what we could have come 2016.

    1b Franco
    2b Utley
    ss Crawford
    3b Asche
    lf Tocci
    cf A. Brown/Quinn
    rf Dugan/Cozzens
    c Rupp/Joseph/Grullion

    sp
    Nola
    Buchannan
    Biddle
    FA
    FA

    This does not include any prospects we may get back which would likely be OF and SP related.

    They could free up between $40 and $70 million (Howard buyout) for free agents.

    It is not that hard.

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    1. That team could very well set the major league record for losses.

      You might get a few a few good prospects at the deadline or some salary relief but you aren’t getting both (except if you trade Hamels which is unlikely)

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      1. You can get both if Hamels is traded and the key is not this year, which is was writeoff, but obtaining the salary flexibility to make moves in the offseason.

        You have $129 million allocated to 9 guys next season. There is no wiggle room to improve the roster.

        People have to get past the fact that you will contend this or next year. It is not happening. The team is sliding backwards and will continue to do so unless you have a fire sale.

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      2. that team loses 100 games easy. There’s no starting pitching and the line-up is as iffy as it gets.

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          1. I don’t think salary flexibility will help us much, except in the form of LA and Japanese FA signings (which we really should be doing). We had no trouble signing Burnett, Byrd, and Hernandez this year, and those guys weren’t exactly cheap.

            Sure, there are better free agents out there, but a team that’s rebuilding shouldn’t be giving up draft picks on those types of players, especially with the recent FA markets.

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            1. Given where we will be finishing I don’t think we give up a draft pick for a big signing.

              It is the top 10 in the draft that can sign a free agent without giving up a pick?

              Am I correct on that one?

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            2. @David – You always give up a pick, just depends whether your first one is protected. If it is, then you lose your second round pick. And if you sign two guys with a protected first, you lose 2nd and 3rd round, etc.

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          2. David, the Philles don’t need salary relief they need younger MLB ready players. To pursue your idea is only going down the path that got us to this point. I would rather see a slower rebuild with talented young players like we are doing in the lower minor league teams(see Matt Winkleman’s column) with veterans here to help them learn and fill open spots.

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        2. And standing pat loses 95 games easy. At that point the precise number of losses doesn’t really matter. What matters is whether or not you can take actions to speed the team’s return to competitiveness.

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          1. Agree……it will take years to compete with teams like the Nats and Braves/Mets with their young talent now beginning to learn to win. This current group is aging and cannot compete to win and our top prospects, once they arrive, will take 2/3 years before they are competent in winning in August and September.

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            1. The Nationals can not be kept together for long as there are too many people needing high $ extentions soon. The Mets have good pitching but their hitting is questionable. The Braves are the only team with a extended history of turning over good talent. I believe that we are not that far off with the young talent in Lakewod/Clearwater.

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          2. Agree. The problem becomes do you want to lose 95 games with a high payroll, aging players, and limited flexibility or lose 95 games with a low payroll, flexibility to add someone via trade or free agency, and young players on the rise.

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    2. I still don’t get the thinking of putting the superior fielding third baseman at firstbase. The theory that Asche’s bat doesn’t play at firstbase but Franco’s might is no reason. If Asche at 1B and Franco at 3B puts a better package on the field than Asche at 3B and Franco at 1B, that is what you do.

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        2. There are multiple scouting reports noting Franco’s plus arm, soft hands and instincts at third. The only knock has been his body, which some believe will put him on first once he gets older. Asche is regarded as an average defender at best.

          The link below is just one example. It’s the Phils manager saying Franco has a better future at third than the guy who is there right now.

          “I give Franco the edge (over Cody Asche),” Sandberg said. “He just has a knack for reading balls and drop-stepping and real quick with his feet, even for a guy with his size. I saw that in spring training.”

          http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/franco-might-dabble-first-third-base-appears-future/

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      2. A thousand times, yes.

        Big league lineups aren’t like fantasy baseball … you don’t say, “well, Franco is a 3B/1B, so I’ll put him at first and Asche at third.” If the reports of his defense that I’ve seen are true, it should be Franco at third from the moment he is promoted to the big club.

        If Asche doesn’t work out in LF (there’s no room at 1B with Ruf/Howard, and I’m not sure he’s ever played there anyway), then trade him.

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    4. How is it even thinkable that Rocco is in the majors by 2016? Let’s hope he gets to AA by then.

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  9. I can only check mlb trade rumors and other cites for trade rumors so many times ruben, its time to make something happen! It looks like pap is staying and we are gonna have lee until at least august. Bastardo is ruining his trade value with each passing moment, which really stinks because left handed relievers are fairly valuable this time of year. I’m thinking Byrd and bastardo are the only players we trade before the deadline.

    I was pretty happy with the new top 20 prospects list, a lot of names from the past 2 drafts. Byrd could bring back a nice little return that could possibly add a name to that list. Hamels and utley could bring pretty good returns, but I highly doubt they go anywhere. I am really getting tired of seeing guys like utley and hamels compete while the guys around them are not contributing. Dom has been poor with the bat and to keep my blood pressure down I am not going to even begin talking about his atrocious defense…..ugh!! Asche has been hitting very well since coming off the DL, but his numbers aren’t good enough for third. Revere has gotten his average up, but doesn’t draw enough walks or hits for extra bases. Howard has been….well just say bad. I contemplate whether or not we should trade hamels and/or utley all the time. I want to see utley lead a team deep into the playoffs. I think he deserves the chance to win another world series and he won’t get that here. If I was looking for a second baseman I would go after him for sure. The guy hit 5 home runs in the 09 world series for heavens sake! Very slim chance utley leaves and thats bc he wants to be here. His loyalty to this team I will never understand, but it is greatly admired and appreciated.

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    1. i didn’t have the same reaction with the new top 20 list. there was sure to be many new names since the farm system was so poor. i actually thought seeing biddle and tocci and others so high was depressing. if you want to rate that list,compare it to other teams,not previous phillies ranks

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  11. I am glad that they are asking for a lot from Hamels, but we would not be in this position if Amaro had been as demanding for Cliff Lee, or if the organization had used their financial advantage and paid over slot for talent, or had used that $ in getting Japanese or High level Cuban talent.

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  12. So apparently Hamels is available and dodgers interested according to mlbtraderumors. Phil’s asking price is said to be high so maybe they can a decent return. From what I have read they are not going to part with pederson, seager, or urias, but maybe they can make a deal centered around Zach Lee.

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    1. Zach Lee’s stock has dropped quite a bit. I wouldn’t want him as the headliner in a Dodgers trade. If L.A. is bent on keeping Pederson as has been stated in recent reports, I’d then ask for Seager instead as the headliner with a couple other good prospects thrown in. Seager plays SS and maybe eventually 3B, and we already have JP Crawford and Maikel Franco as prospects at those positions, but you can never have too much depth at SS/3B so I’d definitely take Seager in a Hamels deal if they don’t want to part with Pederson.

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      1. Good points Dan. I didn’t see it originally, but I reread the article and it said they may be willing to give up one of pederson or seager since hamels is already locked up. I would think LA would want to keep pederson since he’s close to mlb ready so maybe we could get seager. I would hope ruben could get zach lee thrown in since he is having a down year. I don’t know if he had a few bad starts that skew his numbers but his sinking fastball is something our scouts seem to look for. A hypothetical infield of Seager at 3B, Crawford at SS, Dugan at 2B, and Franco at first is pretty exciting. Add that infield to a pretty good bullpen and we may be in business if we can get an outfield prospect or two to arrive. Nola and Imhof could be our 2 and 3 or 3 and 4 starters. Add a free agent or two and/or a trade and we could be in business in 3-4 years.

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    2. At least two of their top 3 guys (Urias, Joc, Seager) needs to be included, or they won’t get past the receptionist.

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      1. I’m not so sure that would be the case. If the dodgers offer Seager, Holmes, Lee, and another pitcher or bat with some upside and take hamels contract I think ruben makes the deal without pederson or urias. I’m all for trying to get 2/3 of them for hamels I am just not sure if it can be done.

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        1. I’d hope RAJ insta-declines that offer, and would personally be sad to see Cole go for that.

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          1. JohnB may be selling hamels a little low, but he’s not too far off. Hamels is not 24-28 with arbitration years remaining. It is the younger, cost controlled players that get and org. top 2-3 prospects. Let’s say ruben does JohnB’s deal. We get Seager, Holmes, Lee, and lets say Scott Schebler ( dodgers #9 prospect AA OF). While the deal could be better it still can be looked at as beneficial to the phillies org. LA would be taking about 90mil or so off the books. This allows the phillies to add another player(s) which adds value to the deal.

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        2. I’d be fine with Seager as the headliner and Zach Lee as the second piece. We can’t get Grant Holmes because he was just drafted last month. Draftees can’t be traded until at least one year after being selected. But Chris Anderson or Scott Schebler as the third piece would be okay. I’d see if we could get the Dodgers to bite on taking on Hamels entire remaining contract. I’d be willing to kick in a little cash if needed but not much. Hamels is worth the money.

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        3. i was thinking maybe pederson , guerrero and holmes. gives you an of,2b and mid rotation starter if all pan out

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    3. No offense, but didn’t you post earlier in this thread that the Phils made a huge error by dealing Lee during his prime for no return? Because getting back Zach Lee as the headliner in a Hamels trade would make the Lee to Seattle deal look good by comparison. Hamels is a bona fide ace, and if another org isn’t willing to deal with at least its top two prospects, then hang up the phone.

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      2. No offense taken Mike, I am certainly no expert so I welcome all opinions. I think the only difference between trading hamels now and the lee trade is we are no where near contention. If you trade a guy like lee and your team can still make the playoffs then you need to get some major league ready talent. Right now we aren’t a contending team, so getting prospects and dumping salary is important. You’re right about Zack Lee being the headliner that would not be wise, but I like him a lot if Seager is also in the deal.

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        1. I see your point, but getting prospects only matters when they are the right prospects. Both Pederson and Seagar need to be Phillies if Hamels is dealt. Which is why Hamels won’t be dealt. And I’m OK with that, because the Phils are no longer the org so desperate to shed payroll that they’ll give up stud players for dollar store returns. If someone wants him, they’ve got to pay market price.

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          1. Exactly — I don’t understand why so many people think we need to shed salary for the sake of shedding salary. Hamels’ deal is not a bad contract. He’s getting paid the market rate for an ace starting pitcher. If you shed his salary, you are unlikely to be able to use the freed up cash to get a comparable player. You are more likely to have to turn around and overpay mediocre talent to fill out your roster, which I do not agree with. I am all for dealing Hamels if they get an offer they can’t refuse (Seager, Joc, AND Urias), but I’d be pissed if they agreed to a deal centered around Zack Lee or only one of the Dodgers top 3 prospects. JMO.

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    4. JOHN tell me your kidding .Hamels and you don’t get Pederson and seager at least, we should make you amaro assistant. Lets just give hamels to them. my god.

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  13. You have to get a solid OF and pitching prospect in return for Hamels.

    I think we are fine in the infield but could use more help in the outfield.

    If the draft is any indication, and I believe so, then the Phillies are looking for prospects close to MLB ready.

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    1. Yes….discussed earlier today that some think Dugan is too low at 17 and should be up in the lower top 10 somewhere.

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    2. They gave Sev Gonzalez a 60 fastball. I don’t believe that’s accurate. There’s quite a bit of shuffling I would do with that list.

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  15. I think things need to be mixed up a bit. Here are some minor league moves I’d like to see.

    LHV- release Jeremy Horst, Jim Murphy, and Clete Thomas and replace them with Colton Murray, Jake Fox, and Kelly Dugan. Horst, Murphy, and Thomas aren’t producing and were given enough chances. Dugan has spent enough time in Reading, Murray has been dominating, and Fox clearly shouldn’t be in Double A.

    Reading- release Chris Bootcheck and Mike Nesseth and call up Cody Forsythe, Harold Martinez, and Everett Williams. Forsythe has been great and Bootcheck and Nesseth have been awful. Martinez and Williams don’t really deserve promotions but it doesn’t hurt to put them in Double A and see what they can do because there would be openings with Fox and Dugan in Lehigh.

    Clearwater- release Chris Serritella and Brandon Short and replace them with Mitch Walding and Willians Austudillo. Serritella and Short have been terrible. Austudillo has been great and deserves a promotion. Walding hasn’t been too good but has spent a lot of time with Lakewood and I think it’s his time to sink or swim at the next level.

    So overall, I’d release Horst, Murphy, Clete Thomas, Bootcheck, Nesseth, Serritella, and Brandon Short. I’d promote Murray, Fox, Dugan, Cody Forsythe, Harold Martinez, Everett Williams, Walding, and Austudillo all up one level.

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    1. I think you have to look at some of these moves a little closer,Cody Forsythe was doing ok but then the last two games they figured him out,not enough inninings at the Hi A level, and if Dugan can last to mid august I would send him up. and everett williams has done his job.
      all these players need time including JBC look how many errors he has committed

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    2. I don’t think Everett Williams is in the organization anymore. I would move Nola, MAG and Ridenhour up a level as well. I think Cody Forsythe needs to finish out at Clearwater but not sure exactly why I think that. Nesseth has been pitching well of late (1.8 ERA and .224 BA against in last 10 Games) and seems to have gotten it together.

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  17. I think there are grounds to criticize the Phillies conduct of trade negotiations this season.

    But the irony is that, aside from factors not currently under their control (injuries and 5 & 10 rights, which aren’t under their control at all, and contract terms, which in some case represent past mistakes), the biggest reason that few deals are being made is because the organization has the same outsized expectations regarding the value of their veterans that a certain segment of the readership here has. And (here’s the irony) it is that segment of the readership which is most critical of the lack of trade deadline action.

    Yes, I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating, especially since reporting is now verifying what had been informed speculation on my part.

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    1. Well a lot the reports of the phillies not really looking to sell could be explained by either or both of the following:

      1). Amaro is shooting for the moon now and will reduce demands as the week progresses and no one bites.

      2) interested GMs are not so subtlety trying to pressure Amaro to lowering demands.

      Of course you could be right that Amaro over values his players and/or the market (the latter is the more likely IMO based on his past misunderstanding of various markets). We’ll see soon enough who, if anyone, blinks first

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      1. Maybe. I’m inclined to think that there’s enough evidence, direct and circumstantial – to believe that he is asking for the moon and won;t back down.

        The funny thing it, despite some comments defending Amaro against some specific complaints. on the whole I am extremely negative about him. I think the core problem is just really bad player evaluation, which manifests itself in a number of ways. Add in other pathology of the organization – again, defending the ownership against some of the more extreme criticisms is not the same as saying they are good or even adequate – and I think they are pretty clearly the worst organization in baseball at the moment.

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    2. I heard the biggest reason is the money. Do you really believe that if Byrd waives the third year 2016 of his contract, they couldn’t move him? same with Burnett? its the stupid option amaro threw in to sign these guys. not the return. Paplebon over paid contract makes it impossible to move him unless the Phillies eat the third year. which they wont. So what I am saying is the return isn’t the problem, amaro negotiations are the main hangup.

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  18. Rusney Castillo in town tomorrow for a private workout. I wonder what it would take to sign him!

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    1. While he is no Puig, the fact that he is major league ready makes me believe that the AAV, will be higher than that of Puig’s 7 Mil per. My guess is 4-5 years at 11-12 mil would do that trick

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  19. Salary flexibilty doesn’t help much if there’s limited talent to use it on. They should be able to get some talent for Byrd and Paplebon. Burnett and Bastardo have really hurt their stock. if Lee gets healthy he could fetch something in August. It’s going to be a while folks. They need to spend on the international market more. This is going to requier a lot of patience like the 76ers.

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  22. Hamels (IMO) needs to be traded (now or in the off season) he will not be around when the team is a contender again and if he is still here, more than likely he won’t be a number 1 anymore. I don’t understand why the Dodgers want Hamels, yes he would help them out however they don’t NEED him. I certainly wouldn’t want to give up 2-3 of my best prospects for anyone when my pitching is 6th in baseball (3 guys below 3.00, with the others at 3.44 and 4.49 respectively). Hamels helps but IMO isn’t needed. If he is moved to LA then it begins and ends with 2 of those 3 guys listed above, preferably Joc and Urias. Someone above said that LA would prob want to keep Joc. Why do you feel that way? Their outfield is overcrowded as is, 5 deep which is why he is even obtainable.

    Someone asked about forfeiting a pick when you signed a FA. The top 11 picks are protected this year. They would give up their 2nd round pick if their 1st is protected.

    Someone said Ache is superior to Franco at 3B. Not sure where he got that but Franco is the superior defender, Ashe’s D is passable.

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  23. Dugan at 2B? Unless I’m missing something he’s never played 2B professionally. The closest he was to 2B was playing 1B for a little bit.

    Rusney Castillo comp is Shane Victorino. Wouldn’t be a bad sign if that’s true however he’s already 27 so you would be getting his best years during the time that they wouldn’t be in contention. Yasmani Tomas (once he’s declared a FA) would be the guy I’d go after

    Also I don’t think the Phillies care THAT much about salary relief. I’m sure they wouldn’t mind playing with a lower payroll however it’s not like they NEED the money for this off season considering there aren’t any big money FA to go after.

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  24. AAA 49-61
    AA 44-62
    A (adv) 32-73
    A 41-66
    SS 21-22
    MLB 46-60

    Phillies Org Overall Record MLB to SS
    W – L PCT
    233-354 .397

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    1. Meaningless. The only point of a minor league team is prospect development. On that end, Phillies have an above average minor league.

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        1. Not sure where anon is getting his information about the Phillies minor league rating position, but from what I read it is in the 20s somewhere.

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          1. It’s been improving as the year goes on. We drafted Nola into our Top 2-3 of the org and almost certainly the Top 100 of baseball when people rank those things at season’s end, and Crawford has been climbing rankings at mid-season. Top-heavy orgs often get better rankings because the impact a couple Top 100 players are likely to have is far greater than having even probably 7-10 guys in the next tier.

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            1. If you are drafting a guy into the top 2-3 in your system the system is weaker than you expect.

              It is getting better but there is a gap.

              Honestly, we are in the teens somewhere because it is all objective at this point.

              That said, I understand what Amaro is trying to do with the draft and trades. Because the farm is so weak he needs MLB ready or close to MLB ready prospects. He could not risk waiting until 2018 with this draft, he needed guys that are ready by 2016.

              Same goes for trades, he is looking for MLB ready guys that he can plug into the lineup next year, not A level highly rated prospects.

              He wants an immediate return even if it is a lesser talent next year.

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            2. I’m not sure it’s improved all that much as the season has gone on, and for the reason you cite: the top-heavy, near-to-majors organizations get rated higher. We add Nola in that category and Crawford has been great and moved up. Problem is both Franco and Biddle have slipped, and they were our top prospects, along with Crawford. Going further down the organization, into the chancier or the depth guys: lack of return of Watson and Morgan is disappointing as is velocity from Mecias, but that is over-weighted by recent success of guys like Tocci and Grullon who have reaffirmed their prospect status, Walding who is sneaking back onto the prospect list, and Zach Green. Encarnacion showing he is a prospect. Imhof added as a toward the end of our top 10 talent list and Gueller showing some life. I think we move up the list of org rankings, but without some trades of vets for talent, not much. Other teams have also added talent in the draft and international. The Yankees have added a ton of LA talent.

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          1. I think KLaw was an outlier rating us a little too high, but even if he was right, being ranked 14 is pretty much the definition of average. BA had us 22, truth somewhere in between those two rankings. To see the difficulty of improving too much in the rankings, see who BA had rated just a little above us. Yankees at #18 added a ton of LA talent, We aren’t going to pass them. The Marlins were below us going into the season, but have just purchased $13 mill of talent through the draft. White Sox were behind us coming into the season, but bought $10,4 mill of draft talent.

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    2. But that’s showing a ton of strength in the lower minors. Which explains the problem with evaluating the farm. Once you get beyond our top 4 or so prospects, none of which is in the low minors, all of our talent is more projection than performance, with either injuries or lots of questions to answer. The GCL team is not a young team.

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  25. I again was driving to Cape Cod and picked up EEI , Boston’s sports talk station. The guys on the Baseball talk show were talking about Hamels. They said there were two problems with picking him up. First, the Phils were not asking for 3 top prospects but 4 or 5. I was thinking that would have to be the asking price. There is no reason to trade Hamels so if you want him, you have to pay up. The 2nd problem cited made me laugh out loud. They said Hamels could never put up with the Boston fans. If he had a bad game, the fans would call him every name in the book and send him home crying. In Philly if you pitch a bad game, the dress you up in a Santa suit and boo you all the way to your house. They like to kill two birds with one stone. Most Red Sox fans remember 94 years with no World Series victory. They used to say, “wait until next year.” They liked saying, “that’s just Manny being Manny” or accepting Pedro not wanting to get hurt after falling out of contention on Sept. 1 .They’re a bunch of “baby cats”, if you catch my drift.

    I can see Red Sox commentators saying that 4 or 5 prospects is too much and that signing Lester is a better option but to think Hamels can’t stand up to Sox fans is idiotic.

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    1. What kind of comment is this? Philadelphia fans are tough but Cole is pretty much exempt from excessive booing. Not you best post.

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  26. Pitchers like Hamels don’t come along often and it bears repeating that Cole is the type of pitcher that can be highly effective through his late 30’s and I use Steve Carlton as a comp. Lefty came to the Phillies in his age 27 season one year removed from winning 20 games with the cards. Take a look at his career from age 30 on.

    That is not to say I wouldn’t trade Hamels but if I do I am getting a haul for him.

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    1. What’s that old saying? Something like “Cole couldn’t carry Lefty’s jock strap” , that applies here.

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  27. The monkey wrench however is Lester. The Red Sox will most likely trade him for a single high grade prospect and take their chances they can resign him as an FA in the off season.

    The positive leverage is it really only comes down to two teams that would be vying for his services the Cards and Dodgers and both of them have the requisite prospects to do a deal.

    Toronto and Milwaukee are probably in play as are the Orioles but I don’t think Cole would waive to go to Toronto and probably not to the Brewers or Orioles.

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  28. Our farm teams were 0-7 last night. I’m generally not concerned about or focused on farm team records – rather, I focus on individual prospects. But the records of these teams are so uniformly bad that it truly speaks to a very significant lack of talent depth throughout the organization, especially with respect to pitchers. Just more proof that Ruben has driven unlce Monty’s previously shiny new Cadillac into the ground.

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    1. Catch, I agree with you. The rankings of farm systems based on prospect evaluation is very subjective. The win-loss records against other teams on their level of development is much more objective. When your major league team needs players at just about every position, it is not enough to have a couple of good prospects. The Phillies need several highly talented prospects at each position and they don’t have them.

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      1. Another indicator is looking at the top major league rookies this season. Hint: none are Phillies.

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  29. Everybody on this blog is prospect crazy but when the prospects finally make the big time they are berated for not being the next Mike Trout ! I am talking about the comments regarding Asche. Give the guy a chance for heaven’s sake. And I am not talking about his fielding vs. Franco’s because it is documented that Franco is the better fielder – albeit his range is limited.

    This mess is going to be a long time correcting and no expectation of being competitive is viable until they make more/better draft choices, get very lucky with a few reclamation projects, and rid the team of “underperforming” malcontents. Can you say 3/4 years ? As it is, other than Nola, there is little major league pitching potential within sight.

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    3. Can you imagine if the only trade that Ruben makes involves Hamels to the Dodgers are their request!
      The Dodgers starting three would be Kershaw, Greinke and Hamels….who beats them!

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      1. Romus that’s what I was thinking, I am real concerned if they make the trade for Pederson. there are red flags on this guy. The dodgers with that rotation barring injuries will be good for at least 4-5 years.

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        1. I’d would hope Ruben has enough sense to also get 2 other legit prospects from the Dodgers besides Joc Pederson.
          They have pretty good desirables in Seager, Urias and Lee – cannot get all three but maybe one of them plus Pederson and one of their age-youngest bottom 10 guys.

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    4. Who is trashing Asche here? The only comments I’ve seen on this thread are exactly what you state above — Franco is a superior fielder. I think this board has been incredibly supportive of Asche as he progresses through his rookie year.

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  31. Byrd is sitting tonight, they say he bounced a foul off his foot and will be back Wednesday. Maybe a trade is close?

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  32. Tampa and Cardinals are talking trade with Price involved.
    But what I did not realize, but that one piece of the mult-player trade, from the Cardinals to Tampa was the Cardinal’s first-round compensation pick for 2015.
    Did not realize that a team could trade a regular or compensation first round Rule 4 draft choices.

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  33. Two trades I would immediately endorse;

    1. DBrown for Collin McHugh

    2. Hamels for Kemp, Seager, one of Pederson and Urias and another Top 10 prospect (e.g. Chris Anderson).

    I’m somewhat softening on my earlier position that the club should not trade Hamels but I’m reserved to the notion that this will be an noncompetitive team for at least 2-3 more seasons. Kemp may not be done – he’ll play all of 2015 at age 30 and it’s very likely the case that he may still be looking to recover his power stroke following shoulder surgery less than 2 yrs ago. He’s still OPS’ing .775 this year, a number that would likely increase playing half his games at the bank, not to mention playing less games in the cavernous parks in the NL West. Taking on his contract will likely get the Phils whatever 2 prospects they want, and Kemp himself, given a rebound, may be a decent trade candidate come next year’s deadline.

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    2. I agree steve(Tampa) and then throw the bank at scherzer and hope he is willing to leave detroit. I believe you won’t have anything to lose including apick as they will be in top 10 of worst teams- I may be wrong though

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      1. Very good point Brian, they won’t lose their first round pick if they sign a big free agent. Idk if we could get Scherzer since we don’t have a great track record with scott boras, but it would be an interesting sign. Steve-Tampa good trade proposal maybe we could somehow get papelbon out to LA in that deal as well, I would be happy to get a toolsy prospect for him and be glad his money is off the books.

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        1. It might be a good idea to go after a few Type A free agents in the same year that we have a protected pick, and that might be a way to force our way back into contention.

          Just a shot in the dark hypothetical: if we don’t do any deals, would the additions of Scherzer, Cuddyer, and a center fielder put us anywhere near a pennant race?

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          1. No I do not think adding cuddyer and scherzer and a center fielder puts us in contention. I am assuming we trade lee by next season, so our rotation would not be great behind scherzer. We are still stuck with howard unless they find a way to move him or release him. Cuddyer is getting older and we do not need another aging player, although I do like him and wish we brought him in with Thome a few years back. We would have to count on utley and rollins being healthy again and to also performing as well if not better than this season. Too many holes. Best chance of making it back to the playoffs is getting howard and paps contracts off the team. Pap has been good this year but Giles is making a STRONG case to replace him and is a much cheaper option. Burnett has been terrible of late and we will probably get stuck with him next season. Hopefully he can get his hernia fixed up and pitch better. After moving pap and howard, Hamels needs to bring back some prospects. We need to have a core of young players and then add a free agent or two to help. In a few years hopefully the phillies will have the talent, because with the high contracts off the books and comcast money coming soon (not sure exactly when) they will have money to spend.

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    3. I Wouldn’t do this deal . First Kemp is owed too much money. Second Pederson has a ton of red flags on him, and urias is looking like a nice prospects. I want Seager in any deal. Right now who is better than Cole? very few. So why burden the team with a huge contract in Kemp. who is injury prone? The dodgers want Hamels they must give us seager, Pederson, urias and Anderson or someone like him.

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  34. Grand Slam Chase Ultey , Hamels doing his thing. The only way I’m trading Hamels is for Seager , Gordon, and another pitching prospect. I, D take Kemp only if they trade them Howard.

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    1. Chase is the man, but why would they trade gordon?? They would be adding hamels which would give them a sick rotation, but lose a very good player in gordon. highly doubt they would create a hole to add another starter.

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  35. Are you guys absolutely sure there is no way Grant Holmes can be a PTBNL? Urias scares me being so young and so slight framed.

    Not sure what you are so afraid of with Pederson. His splits are pretty good actually and his career K Rate is 20% not bad considering he OBP’s nearly .400 and OPS close to 1.000.

    He is a bit of knucklehead and still a wee bit immature but I like him. He reminds of the Dude. He has some swagger like Jimmy used to have. Our org could use something like that.

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  36. I would do this if I was Ruben today. Approach the giants with a package of Utley and Hamels. Get the rumor out there and see if the dodgers change there stands, According to there gm Seager wont be moved, wonder if that changes if giants are in on hamels and Utley.

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  37. Wouldn’t it be wise to trade Hamels to Boston (start with Owens and Betts) then go after Lester and Scherzer.

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    1. I don’t think you go after a huge contract this off-season. The team is not 1 or 2 or 3 players away from being good. Not sure if you meant go after both Lester and Scherzer (or just one of them). If you went after both, you are further handcuffing yourself (and I doubt they would want to come here). If you went after 1, you could allocate Hamel’s money to them, but the team still stinks.

      I would take a Cubs approach – quasi-stink for a few years, build up the farm system, bring in Byrd type FA’s to have a product on the field, and then spend on the FA market in 2-3 years.

      Adding a Lester type pitcher in the off-season, in my opinion, is like adding a band-aid to a bullet wound.

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  38. I heard john Lester say he wouldn’t mind coming back to red sox. If any team gives up a lot for him and he doesn’t sign a extension. It could be a real black eye to baseball. I would be very scared to give anything for him without a extension. knowing he wants to go back to Boston. Wonder if any team made a deal with a player to go in trade then come back next season as fa.

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  39. Random Thoughts:
    1) Really hope to see a new headline by this time tomorrow on PhuturePhillies that will break down the newly acquired prospects. I hope that there are 2 or 3 such entries. If there are no trades, I will be depressed.

    2) I have come to the point where I am open to trading Hamels. At the end of the day, as others have pointed out, he is at his peak. But, by the time the Phillies are good again, he likely will no longer be a #1. We stink with him, we can stink without him

    3) If Hamels is indeed in play, can you get a buying team to take on a bad contract (Papelbon, some Howard $$?).

    4) Phillies have 6th worst record right now (so they would draft 7th, with the Houston fiasco). That said, I just cannot bring myself to root for them to lose. If they were on the fringe of falling to #11 (where draft pick compensation could become an issue), perhaps I could not root for them. But, I just can’t root against them.

    5) wonder what will come of the tryout with the Cuba player? Heard that some teams have made offers. If this is true, I wonder if Phillies are one of them.

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