Phillies agree a deal for Hunter Pence

Here is your place for instant reaction.

The deal is apparently Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart and 2 players to be named later, per Ken Rosenthal. I’m going to write up a long analysis of this deal, from all sides. I’m sure you want to react quickly and say how much you love it or hate it. So do that here. And then check back later if you are curious for my take on the trade.

161 thoughts on “Phillies agree a deal for Hunter Pence

  1. I think it’s a fair deal. The Astros get two guys who could become their foundation of a championship calliber ball club and the Phillies get a complementary bat to help them this year and in the future.

    I think the best part of it is that we kept Brown.

  2. Nice. Thars why you have prospects
    We are in win now mode… Have 2 go for it

    Cosart is an injury risk

  3. I feel relieved more than anything else, after some of the crazy talk today. If MLBtraderumors is right, and the two PTBNL are not major prospects, I feel decent. I know a lot of people here are going to be outraged, but Singleton, promising as he is, is still in A ball and is going to have to hit a ton to play at first, and Cosart has injury issues and, again, is in A ball. I look at this as comparable to the Blanton trade, which a lot of people here hated, in that it’s giving up some serious potential for a necessary complementary piece. I’m at peace with it.

    1. Yeah, I was sweating bullets earlier fearing we might lose Cosart, Singleton and Brown.

  4. I’m a fan. Phillies have a legit shot this year, and two prospects who are a couple years away for an OF who’s here for at least two more years is a good deal (even if I think Pence is overrated slightly).

  5. After all the rumors recently, I’m just glad Brown wasn’t included. I hope they find a way to keep him in the lineup at least 3x per week.

  6. Assuming that the other two prospects aren’t going to cause us to have a heart attack, I’m more than ok with this trade.

    I hate to give up Singleton, but Pence makes a championship caliber team a better team 0 no question. He automatically ranks 1st, 2nd or 3rd in every offensive category on the team.

  7. Also, my congratulations to our new #1 prospect, Trevor May.

  8. Too much. Giving up top position player prospect + top starting pitcher prospect in a very good system for a good-but-not-great player. Cosart I could maybe understand if they project him to move to the bullpen, but Singleton seems like a very good bet to be a good major leaguer for years. Was he that bad in the outfield that he’s in fact blocked by Ryan Howard?

    1. No one’s saying it’s the Halladay trade all over again. Again, I think of Blanton. Mediocre guy, everyone was furious that we gave up so much to get him, but he was the one thing that team absolutely needed after Myers’ injury, and at the end of the year we all–PP included–looked back and said it was worth it. Now, do we know it will turn out that way? No. But it’s a risk worth taking, even if I’m not thrilled.

      1. Exactly. Outman and Cardenas. Outman was decent when healthy and Cardenas to my knowledge has been stuck in the minors. Blanton (for what it is worth) has contributed to the success in 08 – 10

    2. That had nothing to do with it. Singleton is 3 years away from contributing… who knows how long Halladay and Lee are going to be able to pitch effectively? They had to take this chance.

      I don’t think Pence is a difference maker, but he’s a great complementary player to a team that’s already pretty good without him.

    3. The thing is I agree and disagree, we gave up arguably the top two prospects (very debatable) , in a system that is good because it has a ton of depth not because it was top heavy. We still have a ton of young pitching and with this draft a wave of position prospects.

      1. good point about the depth of the system. that makes this deal much easier to accept.

        btw, notice the difference in philosphy between the phils and the braves. the braves had zero willingness to part with any of their big four pitching prospects, even though they were interested in pence.

  9. 6.7% BB rate, 20% K rate, .163 ISO, .370 BABIP. Do not want. TCQ wasn’t available for that package?

  10. I would love to here your reply PP.

    I personally don’t like this at all, but if Brown’s not involved, then at least we didn’t get screwed too royally.

    Just please not May or Valle too, please, I hope RAJ isn’t THAT stupid.

  11. Agreed on keeping Brown. Outfield set for the next few atleast. Who is gonna learn LF, got to be much easier spot on the diamond.
    W H A T T A day.

  12. Happy Brown sticks around. Will miss Singleton. Something special about him. In any event, it’s a good trade for a team in win-now mode, and it’s a good haul in exchange for Houston as well. Hopefully the secondary players are no one that we hold in high regard here at PP

  13. Assuming the two other players aren’t any of (May, Biddle, or Valle) than I’m pretty happy.

    Singleton is never going to play for us, and Cossart has already had injury concerns.

    I preferred Quentin to Pence, but this looks like a pretty good deal.

    1. I think after watching Brown and Ibanez on the corners for a few months they decided a fielder of Quentin’s caliber was a no go.

  14. I am okay with the trade, frankly the Phillies offense wasn’t going to be good enough to win the WS this year. It still might not be, but the chances are so much better.

    Now though, with RA’s approach to trading away premier farm system prospects, it becomes more critical than ever to get premier draft picks signed. This system is going to get drained pretty quickly if they don’t get aggressive about re-stocking it.

    The 2008 draft was incredible. Incredible. Without that draft they don’t have Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence, and Mike Stutes. I wish they took more of a 2008 approach to 2009 and 2010 drafts…and I hope they do it for this 2011 draft.

    1. If the Giants had a good enough offense last year then the Phillies definitely had a good enough offense this year.

      1. Yeah, well that depends on luck. It certainly is an important part of any winner…but on paper the Phillies lineup had too many holes. Could they have gotten hot and got thru the Braves, Cardinals, and Giants? And then the Yankees or Red Sox? Maybe. But adding another bat to this lineup can’t hurt. Halladay, Oswalt, and maybe Lee will be gone or close to gone by the time Singleton and Cosart were ready for MLB. Maybe Rollins and Utely too, it not shells of their former selves.

        The Philles have a 2 or 3 year window. After that things get murky very fast. Outside of Singleton and maybe Valle, there isn’t / wasn’t much in the way of positional prospects.

        1. The Cardinals are the only team that you mentioned that had (and have) a better offense than the Phillies. You’re clearly overreacting.

          1. I am not celebrating. I think Hunter Pence is a solid addition, but he isn’t a superstar. The price paid was extremely high. But the Phillies have traded away 6-7 years worth of their top prospects in an attempt to win as many WS as possible during the Rollins / Utely / Howard / Ruiz / Hamels era. Trading for Pence was just more of the same.

            Look, I value the farm system highly. I think it is critical to maintaining a top team and having any hope for the future, but by the time Singleton and Cosart were ready for prime time roles, the Phillies best players would be too old to do anything with them.

            My problem with this trade is the pathetic draft spend in 2009 and 2010…and what could be a potential repeat in 2011. Amaro knows how to deal for MLB talent, and is building a great MLB club, but he is slowly draining the minors of the best talent and not being aggressive enough at re-stocking down there.

  15. The moment he joins the line-up, he ranks 1st in Avg/doubles, 2nd in RBI and 3rd in 3B/HR/OPS.

    Don’t kid yourself. He improves the team.

    1. Also first in BABIP.

      I agree he marginally improves the team. But does that really matter this year? We are making the playoffs regardless and I don’t see how he really improves our chances in the playoffs over a seven game series. Maybe by 1% point? I just see it as worth the cost.

      1. completely agree. My philosophy is that trades are great when youre in a close playoff race since making the playoffs is priority #1. After that its a crapshoot, and I even said the same thing that Pence might improve chances of winning a 7 game series by like 1%.

    2. He’s also going from a hitter’s park to a neutral park (according to park factors) and has hit 3 HR since May.

    3. Oh Ketch, you’re better than that. Yes he improves the team, but not by much, especially if Brown ends up being the one who sits. How about (among regulars on the Phillies, excluding Brown who sadly will now likely be benched or sent down):

      BB% 7th (ahead only of Ibanez)
      K% 6th (ahead only of Howard and Ibanez (barely))
      ISO 5th (behind Utlely, Howard, Victorino and even Ibanez)

      For believers in advanced analysis, a little better result:

      wOBA 3th

      But that gives him full credit for his BABIP inflated BA.

      Look, he is having a good year in some stats. He is, overall, probably the 4th best regular as a hitter, behind Utley, Howard, and Victorino, not much ahead of Rollins. He does have an edge over Brown as a fielder, but in terms of this season (and if you can rely on seasonal hitting stats, I can rely on seasonal fielding stats) his fielding edge over Brown per Fangraphs is actually pretty narrow.

      I find it hilarious that so many people trashed the Lee deal – worst case there was getting nothing in return for one year of Lee. This almost certainly will be so much worse. Fire Amaro now.

      And credit to nowheels here. Bourn would have been a much better target. Better player than Pence, cheaper, more years of team control, and could have been had for much less.

      1. Thanks Larry we are NOW budds. The only thing that makes real sense is they see Pence as the next leader of the team. Also this is a Cholly move. He doesn’t seem to like the running game per se.
        A lot of the postseason is still which Raul shows up.

  16. Definitely don’t have a Top 10 system now.

    Maybe 15-20 at this point.

    We gave up too much for a complimentary, not star, player.

      1. The Top 5 ranking was based on Brown, Singleton and Cosart at the top 3 spots…Brown is no longer a prospect and the other 2 are gone. We’re out of the Top 10 now.

        1. i think that top 10 rating is based on more than three guys. keith law said the baby aces other than cosart were just outside his top 50, and we still have those guys. so the system isn’t depleted by any stretch.

    1. While we may not have a top 10 system . . . we don’t need one right now. I was doing the math and assuming we resign Cole . . we weren’t going to have enough rotation slots for all our pitching prospects by the time they are ML ready. We traded the biggest injury uncertainty and still have a “good” to “decent” system. If we continue to do minimal damage to it, we should have a top 10 system again by the time it is needed

  17. It doesn’t matter that Brown is still around. You’ll never see him. Ibanez will be your everyday lefty cause Charlie has a hardon for over the hill players.

    1. It matters a whole lot for next year and years to come. Brown doesn’t look ready to be the impact player we need this year anyway (and I think Charlie’s ready to kill him over his fielding)

      1. man i’d still brown’s fielding over ibanez. at least brown can actually reach a few balls. plus the only way a guy improves is if he actually plays

        1. At least Raul knows his limitations and avoids making anything worse with bonehead plays. At least with Pence Brown can be relegated to LF when he plays.

  18. I think Ruben got a great deal. He got the best bat available (who knows if Quentin was available?) and he got him for the next 2 1/2 years.

  19. I like it. Cosart and Singleton are great talents but as Clearwater players they carry a high degree of risk. Pence is at least under contract for two more seasons, so this solves a need in 2012 and ’13.

  20. I think we gave up way to much for a player that is already at his peak… but i guess singleton needed to be traded at some point

  21. Funny how the fact that the deal wasn’t quite as bad as the rumors mutes the criticism. But not for me. Horrible, horrible deal. Amaro must go. Worst GM in Philadelphia history – at least in my lifetime, and I’m 51 – and yes I am serious. And remember I’ve defended him in the past, embarrassingly enough.

    In essence, we are one win better this year because of the deal, probably no better next year than we would have been (Pence at 10 million will be worth his salary but no bargain; we could have purchased an equivelant player at that price). And then 10-15 years of watching Singleton and Cosart play for other teams as the Phillies sink into mediocrity. Singleton is about as close to a sure thing as any 19 year old in high A can be. Cosart carries more risk but is potentially an ace.

    Just a horrible, horrible deal. IMO it could be worse than the Sandberg deal when all the dust settles. RAJ must go.

      1. Not absurb, the deal is horrible. I don’t think Amaro is the worst GM in Philly history, but this deal is very bad. We bought at the highest possible point on a mediocre asset when it has minimal impact on our season. We sold low on two assets that had the potential to be very important parts of future seasons. Exactly the opposite of what good teams do.

        1. My crystal ball sees Cosart not panning out as a starter in ML. Singleton, however, is special. Advanced eye at a young age against older competition. He shoulda been untouchable.

      2. I’m bending over backwards to be kind. What’s absurd is that ANYONE is defending this travesty. The funny thing is that through this I knew that Pence was overated, but looking at him again now that the deal is done I really failed to see just how mediocre he is.

        1. Larry I think you are overreacting or you are Cosart’s/Singleton’s agent. I don’t like trading prospects but thats what there for and the Phillies have a window of three years to win a WS again. I wish Cosart and Singleton the best and hope that they have successful careers and maybe bring Houston a WS.

        2. Don’t need to defend it to you as you have been vomiting all over this for a while now.

          Pence is a very high quality guy, a good hitter who will fit in very well in the clubhouse and on the field. He will hit 25 home runs, hit .275 and drive in 80 while playing very hard in the field and being a plus defender. Uh sounds like 100 bizzillion dollar Jayson Werth right? But under our control for 2 years at around $10 million average.

          And all for a player who can not force his way into the line up (you are very unaware of baseball business if you think Howard can be moved except to maybe St Louis if Big Albert does not sign), a very good pitching prospect who has already been shut down in the past with arm problems (paging jason Knapp) and 2 “B” prospects.

          Oh and we got $1,000,000 too. We raped them. Ed Wade IS the best GM the Phillies ever had!!!! Ha Ha Ha.

          People like you really don’t get it. Pence is an Utley, Victorino, Ruiz, Halladay, Lee kind of guy… probably Oswalt’s buddy too.

          Go back to Vet’s Stadium. You probably liked it there.

          And no one will ever be as bad as John Quinn as a GM. Unless it was defacto GM Bill Giles.

          1. Werth is (or was, if his decline this year is real) a far better player than Pence because he can take a walk. I realize that most of the otherwise knowledgeable fans on this site massively undervalue walks, but they are wrong. The value of BB is the most robust finding of modern statistical analysis.

            1. Fangraphs had Werth as a 5 WAR player in 2009 and 2010. Phillies got great value out of him, because they paid him like he was a 1.5 WAR player. This year, he’s a 0.6 WAR player. Pence is the superior player now, and will likely be a superior player to Werth over the next 3 years. Jayson Werth is gone. Move on.

        1. Huh? That doesn’t make sense. Wasn’t an outfielder going to be an area of need next year anyway? They were going to sign an outfielder and that would have cost them money regardless.

          Everyone just needs to relax. The outcome of this deal will not be seen for a few years at the very least. I agree that you don’t want to be desperate in a thin market because thats when you overpay, and we might have done that, but no one can make any judgements about this trade for a few more years.

          Someone quickly name one impact prospect that we’ve traded away that is currently in the majors. I have one: and that’s Carlos Carassco, but there has not as of yet been continued success. However, I’d trade Carassco for Lee anyday.

          The Halladay deal? Drabek – currently really struggling. Taylor – struggling – D’Arnaud- definitely having a great year. Halladay – Cy young winner and frontrunner again.

          Even the smaller deals have worked out. Blanton – helped us win a world series and Cardenas is still in the minors. Outman in the majors, but Blanton helped us win a world series.
          The scott eyre trade?
          Look at other teams and the big deals they’ve made. Carlos Santana was traded for Casey Blake.

          My point is that we haven’t lost anyone to this point who has come back to bite is in the butt.

    1. The reason you have a chance to be right is because while trading away the heart of the farm system, Amaro has in parallel decided to go super cheap with signings and has close to the lowest spend in MLB in both the draft and LA over the past 2 years.

      It is one thing to trade away the farm for veteran help at the MLB level, it is another thing entirely to do that while not aggressively trying to re-stock what you traded away.

    2. Larry, you’re one of my favorite commenters here, because you’re clearly a really smart guy, but this is a little overboard. The reason we can say the Sandberg trade was the worst in history is because we can now look back on it retrospectively. You place great faith in the predictive power of numbers, but really, there are far too many unknowns here to speak so definitively at this point. What we know is that we lost two very promising guys and received one guy who helps the team now. If Singleton turns out to be the second coming of Albert Pujols, I will sadly concede you were right. But the bars of America are littered with 30 year olds who were can’t miss prospects when they were 19.

    3. PS, as far as the “one win better” thing, I’m not all that well versed in WAR, but it seems like it might be a misapplication of the stat. A major component of Pence’s value is that he makes other players in the lineup, including Howard, better. I’m not sure there’s a way to quantify the folk wisdom that having a opposite-handed guy hitting behind you in the lineup makes your pitches better, but it seems to stand to reason that it would be true. Even if it isn’t, the fact that opposing managers THINK it is true might mean Howard sees fewer lefty relievers in the late innings.

      Ok, watching the game I am definitely hoping one of the PTBNL is Carpenter.

      1. Pence, even with his high BABIP, does not have better numbers than the guy currently batting behind Howard in the lineup (Victorino).

        1. But Victorino isn’t a typical “middle of the order” guy. I get what you’re saying, but you aren’t going to pitch howard differently because you are afraid of Victorino. It is yet to be seen in Pence will have that effect

    4. Deal wasn’t horrible. It was fair. You said it yourself. “Singleton is about as close to a sure thing as any 19 year old in high A can be”. That might be, can be, has a chance to be, but really looks like it is, was transferred into a potential to help now. Simple asset management decision. If you can calm down, function entirely from logic, I’m sure you will see that the decision was one that had to be made.

      1. You could have made precisely the same defense of the Sandberg deal almost 30 years ago. I’m sure some people did. This is precisely that kind of deal.

        If we were getting a true star outfielder – top 6, say, in the league – your defense of the deal would be reasonable (if still debatable). Instead we are getting Pence, slightly better than mediocre, and likely compounding the error by replacing Brown rather than Ibanez. He improves the team by one win, maybe, at the cost of 2 of the top 30 prospects in the minor leagues.

        The truth is that it’s the defenders of the trade who are ignoring logic and instead engaging in empotion driven wishful thinking. It’s just a horrible, horrible trade. And the Phillies are the laughing stock of baseball fans throughout the nation.

        1. I’d just like to point out that, in fact, it’s a completely different kind of trade than the Sandberg deal. Larry Bowa was the centerpiece of that deal, Sandberg was a throw-in. Teams value–perhaps overvalue–their prospects much more these days, because the economics of baseball have completely changed. I don’t mean to guarantee that Singleton won’t turn into a Hall of Famer, though obviously the odds against it are EXTREMELY long. But we can be certain that no one hoodwinked the Phils front office, a la Dallas Green in 1982. They knew exactly what these guys are, and they were comfortable giving them up. Doesn’t mean they’re right, but it does mean they’re cognizant.

        2. Larry, who else out there was better than Hunter Pence that was available? Please don’t tell me Upton from Tampa or Quentin from Chicago as they have big flaws also. Is Pence going to be the next Willie Mays-no but he is a solid player. Now we need to use the cash to sign as many draft picks that we can and I think you would agree with that..

        3. So Singleton and Coaart are Hall of Famers? Please. It’s not a matter of defending a choice. The goal of the Phillies is to win World Series. Not the Class A championships. If we have to trade a piece to do so, then it must get done. It still might not happen. Just like none of those guys ever see a big league field. Didn’t want to see them go. But I want a parade!! If this sacrifice gets it done, then we should all pitch in for the plane tix.

        4. Larry, I hope you don’t take this the wrong way.

          But you are completely and totally wrong.

          Pence has an OPS+ of 132 this year. He’s not Matt Kemp, but he’s not dog meat either. If neither Cosart or Singleton fulfill their promise, and trust me, they are high beta guys, this post will be a laughingstock, not the Phillies.

          I can guarantee you there are probably 27 fanbases out there right now crying because their team lacks the resources the Phillies have. And the two other fanbases in New York and Boston are saying “where is our guy?”

          I outlined the logic. The logic is, Jon Singleton might become as good or slightly better than Hunter Pence. We already have the current version, who will accumulate plenty of MLB value before Singleton or Cosart even make it to the majors. Just about every media outlet reacting to the trade has said “it could work out for both teams, but the guys the Phillies gave up aren’t sure things, and they got immediate help”

          Pence isn’t a rental. The Phillies didn’t throw anything away.

          1. He has been dog meat for the last three weeks. Worse than that. Why I don’t know.
            I hope he isn’t a true streak hitter like Raul which would been there is only about a 1 in 4 chance of them both hitting postseason. And a 1 in 4 chance of Vic being between two huge craters.

    5. Larry – I hear you. Objectively, the Phillies got the shorter end of this stick, particularly with Singleton, who, I agree, is probably a special player. Still, the more I think about this, the less angry I become (assuming these are the only two premiere payers traded) and here’s why.

      first, let us look at the loss of talent. Cosart has a very high upside but he also carries a lot of risk, both of injury and possibility that he will not reach his upside. But the biggest thing is that the team will probably not need him anytime soon. They have great starters that are all in their prime and just loads of pitching talent behind them. Yeah, if he turns into Justin Verlander we will miss him, but that is not likely to happen. On Singleton, we will miss him, but as a future slugging first baseman (let’s face it, that is what he will be) he would be the most easily replaced commodity in baseball. One way or another, we can find a hitter at first.

      As for Pence, while he is not a star, he improves the team in the area where it is most lacking, he is relatively young, he fits the team’s personality and he will be under control for the next several years while the team should be a title contender. I really do believe that he improves this team and if he helps get us a title, it will be huge.

      Also, by getting him and not trading Brown or Worley, the team can field a young and athletic outfield while getting needed salary relief if it parts ways with Oswalt as I expect it will. Think about it, this move indirectly solves many payroll issues for next year and perhaps the year after that.

      The only thing that annoys me is that this problem should not have been solved at that trade deadline when we had to pay such a large trade premium. Everyone knew this winter that this was a glaring hole.

    6. RAJ must go? Good idea, Larry. Here’s another good one: let’s hire Ed Wade back and be 35-71 like Houston is right now but with a slew of “hot prospects” at least 2-3 years away from The Show. I’m sure Singleton has a great chance to be an All-Star-caliber player down the road, but if he was a true 19-year-old prodigy he would have been manning left-field at The Bank tonight putting up video game numbers already and this trade wouldn’t have been necessary in the first place. The reality is he’s not(and was likely blocked by Howard at his true position 1B forever), Ibanez is gone after this year(good thing as I’d much rather have that $10million/per going to Pence the next 2 years), and Dom Brown at this point is a much safer bet defensively in left field next year and beyond. Most importantly: this clearly gives us a better chance to hoist our 2nd Big Trophy in 4 years RIGHT NOW. Isn’t that what it’s all about? Isn’t that what our GM is supposed to be doing for insane fans who pack the park every night??

  22. Sigh. Seems like a lot to me. Everyone makes the assumption that we wont have lee ans Rh forever. True, but if we have a top 3 mlb salary, we will have players comparable. The idea of overpaying when the team is in first seems odd. I wonder if we will regret this next year at the trade deadline.

  23. Can someone refresh my memory on the rules on trading players who have recently signed. It just occurred to me that one of the PTBNL might be Biddle, given Houston’s interest in young pitching.

    1. Players can’t be traded within a year of their signing, Biddle signed early so he would have been announced. This could be players from last year, or it could be a list of players that the Astros could choose from.

  24. Not that I am a qualified scout but watching Signleton in that OSwalt game didn’t impress me. Lots of hype and I think he will turn out to be like an Adrian Cardenas.

    I’m sure Cosart will be good but he was years away from helping the Phillies and they need to win now. Pence helps them win now.

    Don’t remember where I read it but it was stated perfectly “Pence is a complimentary type player (much like a Jayson Werth) not a Superstar that you build around.” That is dead on and that is all that should be expected out of him. He won’t carry this team, just help.

    1. Werth isn’t much this year, but he had 3 straight seasons far better than Pence ever was or will be. Comparing the 2 is a massive insult to Werth.

  25. I like it but it still hurts a little. The big question is who does he play for? In other words, if Charlie benches Ibanez I’m happy but if Brown doesnt get any playing time for the rest of the year I think thats a big mistake.
    As for what we give up Cosart is great but there is no such thing as a pitching prospect and SP is our greatest position of depth in the minors.
    Singleton seems like he was blocked so that makes him logical trade bait but it still hurts to lose our one premium position player prospect. Hopefully some other guys emerge.
    As for the players to be named later since it is Houston and Ed Wade i have to imagine one is a AAA reliever.

  26. Our system is not looking so great right now, easily moves to the back of the MLB rankings, don’t think we have a single top 100 prospect left, I hate this. I get so attached to those two and I think they will both be stars. Singleton reminds me of Frank Thomas and Cosart has some of the best pure stuff in the minors and reminds me of Beckett. If it was Kemp or J-Upton I would have been okay wih this, Pence is a good not ELITE player.

  27. Breaking my silence to make a guess that the complimentary guys are going to be Schwimer and Pettibone.
    Not happy giving up Singleton. I think he will be quality major leaguer in the middle of the lineup. His patience at the plate is one of the most important skills for a young hitter. I also think he could move quickly. Cosart is high risk so worth trading for a star player. The fact that two more players are going is not good. Hoping the Phillies are getting some major CASH back.

    1. I think those are two good guesses. I would say one is Pettibone or JRod and the other is James. But I think the other player has a chance to be someone like Buchanan or Claypool

      1. I think you’re right about that. At least 1 of the ptbnl’s is probably a good prospect and a guy who’s generated interest on the site. Just hope it’s not May. James could be our top position player prospect now, unless of course he is in the deal.

    2. pettibone at least is considered a prospect, so i don’t think he’s one of the PTBNL.

  28. Its done now. Lets hope the other two prospects are not favorites of this board. Pence is gonna be solid. We need to win now. He was the best available and we def paid a premium for him. If we win the world series then its mission accompished

  29. I like this deal: 2 A-ball prospects and 2 other minor leaguers for a 2-time NL all-star who is under team control for the next 2 years and clearly improves the offense and World Series hopes, this year and the next 2. This removes the off-season need that would otherwise be paramount. Brown can replace Ibanez next year.

    1. Well said. And he is fresh blood who comes from the worst team in baseball to the team with the best record in baseball.

  30. For all the people saying this is a horrible deal are you Phillies fans or Phillies prospect fans? I totally love this site and understand we grow to love prospects. BUT the ultimate goal is to WIN the WORLD SERIES and we may have obtained a guy who can help us get there…The Phils have two championships in over 125 years. They currently have a great starting staff that is built to win NOW!!! Please understand NOW…Sure Cosart could turn into and ACE or stud closer FIVE years from now….and maybe Singleton turns into an all star Five years from now…or both could struggle and nevber make it! AN ALLSTAR IN THE HAND is better than two in the BUSH league!

    1. Sam, if you have been following my posts over the years you know that I am firmly in the camp of the fans of the team rather than of the prospects, defending every trade of prospects before now and ridiculing (admitted not always diplomatically) the people who over value our prospects.

      But this deal is simply indefensible. And Pence is not an all star, two selections (driven partly by the rule that every team needs to have at least one) notwithstanding.

      1. “And Pence is not an all star” – Good logic there sir. Wake up and turn your anger elsewhere; it isn’t warranted

  31. I feel like we sold low on Singleton. I would’ve preferred Cuddyer and probably Upton. It just seemed to me like Ruben had zeroed in on Pence, and no one else was even an option. Pretty difficult to get as good a deal as possible when the salesman sees you slobbering over the car.

    1. That kinda seems like Ruben’s MO. Like I said earlier, when he gets a guy in his sights, he won’t stop until he gets him.

      1. I’m not a fan of that approach at all, but then again, I go to Temple not Stanford, so what do I know…

  32. I think the key is that the Phillies control Pence for 2 years. So yes, it sucks to lose Singleton and Cosart, but it’s the price to pay to pry open that championship window for a little longer. Even though Singleton was playing LF, he’s a natural 1B and he’s blocked. And Cosart’s delivery is worrisome.

  33. Here’s the other thing about Pence you can’t put a price on. he’s a ballplayer’s ball-player. he plays all out on every single play of every night. He was Houston’s Chase Utley and that city will miss him dearly and not because he was just some slightly above average player.

    He plays the game the right way.

    1. I think his personality is a very underrated part of this deal. He should be a great addition to the locker room.

      1. Did Lidge help in 2008? Did Oswalt help in 2010? I think so. Look, I am not going to defend Hunter Pence as some kind of savior. He isn’t. It was a super high price to pay. But Pence helps them in 2011 and 2012…the other guys can’t / won’t. They get to keep Brown and Worley, so I can deal with it.

    2. Oh, ketch, tell me that someone hacked your account, please. We’re reduced to defending the deal on the fact that “he plays the game the right way?”

      Utlely would be missed because he is not merely a “slightly above average player” – he is, on performance, not intangibles, far, far above average – on peak value, one of the top 10 – probably top 5 – second basemen of all time. Whereas Pence is perhaps one of the top 600 right fielders of all time. I mean, if you want to compare him to a “ballplayers ballplayer,” compare him to that gritty guy David Eckstein. Yeah Pence is better, but he is closer to Eckstein in value than to Utley.

      I’m liking this deal even less as I read the defenses of it.

  34. You guys are all nuts. Yes, giving up high prospects hurts. We’re getting a .300 hitter, excellent defensive right-fielder, and a guy who only has to be a supporting role guy. Mind you, he’s had good years in Houston with almost no help. He might even be better in Philly. Let’s just see how it plays out before we hang Amaro. Cosart and Singleton are NOT sure things. The only sure thing is Hunter Pence being a welcomed addition to the team.

    1. Their pitching hasn’t been good, but Houston had some help for him in that lineup. Not to mention a short porch in left. .300 hitter? Not for his career. Yes so far this year but it’s mostly high BABIP fueled. He’s a nice player.

    2. He’s the rare player that IMO is underrated nationally, but overrated by people who are more than casual fans, if that makes sense.

  35. This definitely hurts, but 2.5 years of Pence is a good amount of time. Nice that we keep Brown too. I’m really hoping these 2 PTBNL’s are not significant…

  36. couple of points from tweets: jon heyman of SI thinks the astros didn’t get much in the deal. interesting …

    also, the phillies weren’t going to include cosart in any beltran trade, but the mets really didn’t like him anyway.

    1. Most people nationally view this as a win for us IMO. The reaction in the state of Texas is a win for the Phillies.

      1. I think most people always favor the team that gets the major league player. Outside of regular readers of this site, not too many people know about what Houston’s getting.

        1. Immediate reaction from the baseball world as a whole is that this is a win for Philly, at least in respect to the kind of player we’re getting.

          1. Immediate reaction from anybody who knows prospects (Kevin Goldstein and Ben Badler, for example) view this as a win for the Astros.

    2. Beltran said in a interview before Thursdays game that the Mets never approached him about coming to Philadelphia. That means the Mets all along were not going to trade him within the division.

      1. He also said he wasn’t told about the Giants until the deal was imminent. The fact that he wasn’t told means nothing.

  37. Perfect trade for us. We get star right handed bat and they get Singlton who had no place to play in the near future and Cosart who never was dominant and showcased in futures game for trade bait. Perfect move by the Phillies

    1. I wanted to move Howard when Singleton was ready. It is, uh was, the best way to keep this team competitive. Howard is not going to last that much longer.

      But no, I guess getting rid of the guy who can keep our window open for someone to play while our window IS open is the best possible decision.

  38. J STARK says we are getting cash too! I want THOME next if TWINS fall out of it. Rizz for Thome

  39. JSalisburyCSN Jim Salisbury
    Astros will get minor lg P Josh Zeid and player to be determined in addition to Cosart and Singleton in Pence deal.

  40. Send Ed Wade his Phillies paycheck he earned it this week!

    Possibly some guys from Lehigh Valley like Mathieson, Carpenter, Zagurski, Savory, etc

    1. Makes sense. He could end up being a good reliever for Houston, or he could do nothing. A prospect but not a top 30 guy I don’t think.

  41. Raj strikes again awful deal…guy wont be happy until we have 0 prospects…

  42. Its a fair trade, considering the demand and the buyer’s market. Beltran fetched a nice return too.

  43. We get a million bucks back from the Stros. Lets put it towards signing the picks please.

  44. I really think Singleton could have been used to net a bigger return. I’m fine with dealing Cosart as his value was pretty high right now and the potential for injuries. Dealing them both for Pence seems foolish at first glance to me. Deal really hinges on who the PTBNL end up being and how much coin Wade sends over.

  45. another thing to remember is how ranking minor leaguers is an inexact science. i’m pretty sure worley, stutes and bastardo weren’t on the phillies’ top 10 lists a few years ago and they’ve been huge contributors this year.

  46. One more big picture item out of this. One spot open in Reading, one in Clearwater for a pitcher and another for a first baseman.

  47. We all love the Phils minor leaguers. That is why we are on this site all the time. Sometime you have to sacrifice your prospects to get your big league team better. Would you rather improve your chances at winning the World Series or the Florida Stat League title? I think if Singleton was able to adjust to the outfield this deal wouldn’t happen. The Phils still have depth with pitching in the system. Buchanan will most likely move up. May, Pettibone, and JRod have had good years. Colvin is still a good prospect as is Biddle. I also think the emergence of Worley makes the Phillies feel good. Zeid is also gone. Not a big loss as he is behind many relievers in the system.

      1. My issue is that while Pence is an upgrade of Dom THIS year, he would be an even bigger upgrade over Raul. What would you rather have Pence and Ibanez at the corners, or Pence and Brown? I hope Brown still has a future with this team.

  48. I like it. I haven’t been high on cosart all year but singleton was finally starting to come around. Either way, pence increases our world series chances by 10% or so IMO

  49. This trade stings a little because Singleton was the first low A guy I have EVER let myself get excited about but this seems to be a fair deal.

  50. I expected Kendrick to be part of any major deal because he is a cheap, useful, starting, major league pitcher. It helps the receiving team justify getting ‘only’ prospects that won’t help the team for years. (Still wishing for Uehara from Baltimore.)

    From the Phillies end it relieves them of some salary to stay under the tax threshold. I was hoping that Houston was throwing in enough CASH (because of Singleton in the deal) that it would allow the Phillies to get a cheap relief pitcher also. $1M will not do that, so I expect that the Phillies are done making outside moves this season.

    Kendrick would be a better bullpen piece than Herndon but not much use in the Playoffs and unlikely to be tendered next season.

    1. Kendrick is just a mediocre pitcher who’s already into arbitration. The Astros are trying to cut salary. Why would they want Kendrick? If they need a starter, the Astros could call up a B level pitching prospect.

  51. I don’t like the deal for the simple fact i now realize the hopes of waves of minor leaguers being developed to keep the Phils winners for a long period of time is not going to happen. It will be 2-3 years and then “crash and burn”. We had better win a WS or 2 over the next 3 years because we won’t smell playoffs for a decade after all our older players’ windows close. Oh well, we had and will have a good run for alittle longer.

    1. This is a really pessimistic view, over the past few deals we haven’t given up anything that says we can’t continue. We still have plenty of pitching, we gave away a 1B who would have played in the corner OF for a bit. We still have plenty in the minors and will continue to have that, we will spend plenty of money to keep who we want to keep and get the free agents we want. As long as ownership spends to this payroll we will never have more than one down year and will perennial contender..

  52. people need to come to terms with the fact that philly is now a major market team, or at worst stuck between major and mid market. with that comes a difference in the strategies of the past, of drafting and developing players. how many guys on the yankees are homegrown? or even the red sox for that matter? major markets rely on trading for the best player and developing prospects for trading unless they are a sure thing. money will come off the books over the next few years that will allow the phils to go out and fill the necessary holes.

    1. and moreover the since this deal was done with the astros this is worth mentioning. it seems that people believe the phillies are becoming the astros, but that could not be farther from the truth. I don’t mean that in the sense we are picking up their stars, i mean that in the way we are managing our farm system. the astros made a couple of decent runs at the playoffs and WS in the early 2000’s finally making it in 05, but after that fell off because all of their players retired or left via free agency. Houston was not supporting its team the way philadelphia does because texas is all football all the time so baseball naturally takes a back seat, when the team is just good and not a perennial WS contender the fans stop showing up. ever since CBP has opened it has been relatively packed even when the phils were not vying for titles, and it is in this that the phillies have become a major market team and can sustain these types of trades. we have a deep system whereas the astros were top heavy and thin, trading their only pieces. in the end we just have to embrace a new era for the phillies and the kind of franchise they have become.

      1. That is ridiculous. The Phillies are becoming the Astros the way the late 50s Yankees became the Kansas City Athletics.

        1. even with that false logic (pence and oswalt are the only two astros), would it really be that bad (both all-star caliber players)? i mean the yankees didn’t win the pennant twice from ’55-’65 and were in the series 8 times winning it 4 times. i’d say thats a good run and the phillies would be lucky to have that same type of sustained success.

        2. even with that false logic (pence, lidge, and oswalt are the only two astros), would it really be that bad (all-star caliber players)? i mean the yankees didn’t win the pennant twice from ’55-’65 and were in the series 8 times winning it 4 times. i’d say thats a good run and the phillies would be lucky to have that same type of sustained success.

  53. What i don’t understand is what does Wade get out of this. Does anyone think he will be GM when these prospects hit the majors? Certainly they would not be really ready next year.
    Can you work for two teams at the same time. chuckle

  54. I wonder if Ruben Amaro JR has considered a three swap for travis and chase D’Arnaud involving Tyson Gillies/Phillippe Aumont and retaining the rendered services of Dominic “Brownie” Brown, Brody Colvin, Domingo Santana, Trevor May, Justin De Fratus, Jiwan James, Sebastian Valle, Toronto would very like to have the services of Gillies and Aumont.

    1. Slats…………’Toronto would very like to have the services of Gillies and Aumont.’—because they are both Canadiens?

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