22 thoughts on “10 Statistical Snapshots

  1. I like these snapshots! All the pitchers need to get their BB rates down. May and Biddle I knew about before looking at this, but Colvin, Cosart, and J-Rod are all not far behind those two at 3.7-4.0. I was high on J-Rod coming into the season, but his BABIP seems unsustainably low. He’s taken a step back this year because of his higher fly ball, HR, and walk rates. I think the main key to development for all 5 of these pitchers is to improve their control.

    I’d like to see the snapshot for Austin Hyatt, the guy who may be next in line for a start with the big league club if Hamels need to go on the DL. My feeling is he has maintained his good K rate, but his HR and BB rates have increased, especially his HR rate, but is that something to worry about or a small sample size? I still like Hyatt because of his K/BB rate.

    For the hitters, I would have highlighted Galvis’ OB and SLG, both career highs for him so far by a lot. He has not surprised me. I knew he was young with room to develop physically as well as the normal improvement with experience one would expect from a player repeating a level. Plus as a switch-hitter he will take a bit longer to develop his bat from both sides of the plate.

    I’m not worried about Singleton’s rising K rate or Santana’s falling BB rate. I suspect both will move towards back to their career levels as the players gain experience in their new leagues. I don’t really care about Rizzotti or Overbeck, as I don’t think either is much of a major league prospect. I’d like to see Valle, James, and Castro, all who are better prospects than them in my book.

    1. I should have added Cesar Hernandez to the Clearwater hitters I’d like to see snapshots of. I think his power is increasing, from a baseline of near zero, but I think it is increasing none-the-less. Clearwater is where most of the organization’s best pitching AND hitting prospects are.

    1. Welcome to the club!!!!

      Where are the rest of you???

      Anyone still think he could have been a starting DH in the AL this season?

    2. Welcome to the Club!!!!

      When will the rest of you join?

      Anyone still think Rizzotti could be a starting DH in the AL this year?

    3. Rizzotti started the year on fire, but has been slumping badly for a month. He is now showing signifcant regression from his last season’s performance, while repeating AA. For the year as a whole, his k rate being up 5% compared to last season at AA seems huge. Not sure what’s wrong with him, but this isn’t the Rizzotti of 2010 or even first 6 weeks of 2011. The glove was always a problem, but the bat looks very pedestrian at the moment, especially for a guy whose defensive upside is 1B.

    4. I think I’m repeating what 100 people on here already said, but the guy was available for anyone to take, including teams like the Royals and Pirates and Orioles and A’s and they all said no thanks. There was and continues to be reasons for that.

  2. A couple of observations: Trevor May cut his walks nearly in half this year, which explains his success, and looking at prior years it seems like this level of control is not an aberration. Last year’s struggle in Clearwater is looking more and more like a statistical blip caused by the Phillies trying to rush him.

    Looking at Brody Colvin’s stats… It seems like PP is really down on him, due to fitness issues, which I suspect means he’s hearing stuff through back channels. But there’s no big statistical indication here of why he’s struggled this year in comparison to last year. His walks are up, but it seems like one additional baserunner per game shouldn’t translate to a full run in terms of ERA. His BABIP is the highest of the pitchers here, but still only a touch above average and about the same as last year. His home runs are actually down. So… is it possible that there’s a second component of luck involved here? BABIP tells you something, but it doesn’t tell you if the other team managed to string together three seeing-eye singles in a row, one of those frustrating things that always seems to happen to struggling pitchers. Not that he isn’t worse than last year–his Ks have dropped too–but maybe the baseball gods have been a little unfair to him? I’d be interested in hearing any feedback from people who have seen him pitch in person, about how his stuff looks.

    1. Simply put for Colvin: his walk rate is up and his K rate is down. Especially when you get in the 6 range for k/9 it makes a big difference on the results.

      1. True, but it’s not like the change was precipitous, like how May cut his walks by 40 percent or so. The indicators are headed in the wrong direction, definitely, but not in such a drastic way that he can’t bounce back. Wonder if he’ll repeat Clearwater next year?

    2. Colvin and Cosart have almost the same FIP. I think people are being a tad too negative on Colvin.

      1. I don’t know, was it K Law last year who said that May’s stuff was a tick above Cosarts? I remember one of the pundits putting that out there. It’s not the concensous for sure, but it indicates that he does have really good stuff, and his performance has been at times dominating. Moreso than the others. At any rate, he’s shown himself to be a real work horse innings eater who puts up strong K numbers. Sure he walks too many guys and you’d like to see more groundballs, but I think you could make a case for him being ranked at the top of the heap – especially if you think Cosart is destined for relief.

        To be honest, what I’m hearing about Biddle makes believe he could be the best of the bunch, but all that to say there’s room for discussion on this.

      2. Looking at the stats, May seems to be #1 for now and has progressed the most since last season. Best K/9 and best FIP. If he gets a little better command of his pitches, he can be a #1 in NL.

  3. Glad there may be some here who also appreciate Biddle’s talents that refinement & experience could give us a good imitation of Clayton Kershaw in a few years. I’ve suspected that early after he was drafted. Certainly the best pick of that draft for the Phils, IMO.THAT’S a BIG potential, maybe the best potential starter in our system now.

    Time is on his side…playing at Low A at age 19. Could open at Clwtr in ’12.

      1. He’s following the Brody Colvin path in Lakewood so far. Lets just hope he doesn’t completely emulate him and show up out of shape in 2012.

    1. Agreed. The repeat of High-A is a mark against May. Need to see him do this at AA before I am convinced.

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