78 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 22 June 2011

          1. I hear he when we refer to him that we have to capitalize the first letter.. He… Him… ect….

            1. I heard he isn’t even using his surname anymore, like Brazilian soccer stars. Hence forth he shall only be referred to as “Trevor”

            2. I heard Trevor was starting to look into other sports now that He has completed His hall of fame baseball career. What’s next? Football? Soccer? Table tennis?

    1. You guys beat me to the punch. But then I remembered the old Jimmy Croce song: “You don’t tug on superman’s cape. You don’t spit into the wind. You don’t pull the mask off that old lone ranger
      And you don’t mess around with jim (James)”.

  1. May seems to have real dominant stuff or real average stuff..needs to be more consistent. Good hitting at Williamsport tonight. Ashe and Martinez with 2hits apiece. Hudson with 2 hits including a triple and Altherr with a 3 run HR. No pitching tonight. Singleton and Hernandez with 2 hits apiece for Clearwater. Nice to see. Where is Leandro Castro? Ramirez with a nice start but no support. Lehigh Valley got crushed. Aumont did not fair well. Edell pitched a few good innings then got lit up. Lehigh Valley suddenly has no starters and bullpen is pitching a lot of innings.

    1. I disagree about May — he either has real dominant stuff or lacks control. He gets a dizzying number of Ks when he has success and when he struggles…

      1. This is a very good article that illustrates that point. He says it’s all about his FB command and last night was the best it has ever been for him. Also some very encouraging comments in the article about focusing on throwing strikes and having better mechanics. I think that consistent mechanics have been an ongoing issue, so it is good to hear that the changes that have been made are starting to stick. Of course, one would expect comments like these after the best game he’s ever pitched. I’m trying not to get too high here. Still, it sounds like tangible progress has been made as opposed to him getting lucky on one night.

        Kudos to the article’s author, David Heck, for writing such an insightful piece.

        http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110622&content_id=20900002&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

  2. I mentioned in another topic but will post here that May was overwhelmingly good tonight. The tampa Yankees looked lost up there.

    1. Thanks Steve. May had 9 swinging strikeouts and 5 called. Swining strikeouts are a good sign because that means his stuff is so good that players can’t hit it (i.e. “swing-and-miss stuff”).

  3. How are the yankees lineup. Was may dominating a good offensive team or a below average one? Happy to see hernandez doing really well over where he was at not too long ago. Also are there any clip from todays game?

  4. 1. OF – Domonic Brown (Phillies) – (.206) 0 for 3
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.259) –2 for 4 with a BB and SB (2)
    5. RHP – Trevor May (Clearwater)- (4-4, 3.23) – 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB and 14 K’s
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.258) – 2 for 3 with a 2B (5),2 runs, 2 SB (9) and a K
    14. RHP – JC Ramirez (Reading) – (5-7, 4.11) – 7.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB and 5 K’s (loss)
    15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Williamsport) – (.381) – 1 for 5 with a HR (1), 3 RBI (4) and a K
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.267) – 1 for 5 with 3 K’s
    22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Lehigh Valley) – (0-0, 5.40) – 1.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB and a K
    28. OF – Kelly Dugan (Williamsport) –(.261) – 1 for 5 with a run, RBI (2) and 2 K’s

    Others:

    1B – Cody Overbeck (Lehigh Valley) – (.105) 0 for 3 with 2 K’s
    3B – Carlos Rivero (Reading) – (.248) – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s
    3B – Harold Martinez (Williamsport) – (.182) – 2 for 5 with a 2B (1), run and 2 K’s
    2B/DH – Cody Asche (Williamsport) – (.150) 2 for 5 with a 2B (1), run and 2 K’s
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.273) –1 for 4 with a K
    SS – Jair Morelos (VSL) – (.340) – 1 for 4 with a run and RBI (16)
    OF – John Mayberry (Lehigh Valley) – (.262) – 3 for 5 with a HR (2), 2B (5), 3 RBI (9) and SB (1)
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.274) – 0 for 3
    OF – Kyrell Hudson (Williamsport) – (.348) – 2 for 5 with a 3B (1), run and a K
    OF – Brian Pointer (GCL) – 1 for 5 with a 2B (2), RBI (1), run and 3 K’s
    OF – Herlis Rodriguez (VSL) – (.314) – 0 for 5 with 2 K’s
    LHP – Mike Zagurski (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 2.22, 10 SV) – 2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB and a K
    RHP – Eric Pettis (Clearwater – (1-1, 1.33) –2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 Bb and 3 K’s
    RHP – Leonel Bastidas (Williamsport) – (1-1, 5.73) – 5 IP, 10 H, 10 R, 7 ER, 1 BB and 5 K’s (loss)
    RHP – Jonathan Musser (GCL) – (0-0, 1.80) – 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB and 2 K’s

  5. Cesar Hernandez has been putting it together over the past several weeks. His role offensively–as a promising excellent fielder player at 2nd base–would be to hit at the top of the lineup as an OB machine who steals bases.

    Should he maintain his current mojo, it is likely he will be moved to the top of the lineup…soon.
    He is–IMO–the front office’s most favored 2nd baseman of the future.

    I’ve said he’d likely get up to .260 by the season’s end. Looks like he’s ahead of schedule. Terrific to see. Now, if we only had a SS with superior skills to join him. Did somebody say “Galvis”?

    1. I was just going to post the same thing. Hernandez could move up to Reading by year’s end, but first he needs to move up in the batting order. He’s outgrown the 7th hole. I’d bat him first and James second.

    2. Not quite sure how 9 BB’s all year would make him an OB Machine but he’s definitely turned himself into someone to watch. Are Singleton And Rizz the only guys in the system that actually know how to take a walk??

        1. Sanatana not so much this year, but he has in the past.

          Collier’s BB rate is decent. Same with Savery and Susdorf. Mendez and Rivero are … not horrible, not great.

          Kratz isn’t a prospect but can take a walk. As can a couple other non prospects.

          That’s about it, in addition to Singleton and Rizzotti. Not an organizational strength.

      1. PSU makes a good point, though – one of the best things about Hernandez prior to this year was his control of the strike zone. In thte GCL and the NYPL he had just about the same number of walks as Ks. This year he has 9 BBs and 35 Ks for BB rate of 3.7% and a K rate of 16.2%. BB rate was 9.1% and 9.7% past two years. This is something to monitor.

        He’s really tearing it up in June with a BABIP of .380 with a much lower GB rate and a slightly higher LD rate. I certainly hope he can maintain this level of production, but his May stats look more realistic than his June stats.

          1. . . . . most likely because he skipped a league. It’s not easy going from short season ball to A+ ball. You have to expect a reasonable adjustment period.

            I’d wait to see what he does for the rest of the year before we make any judgments on his strike zone judgment skills.

  6. interesting …

    Reports out of Lehigh Valley, home of the Phillies’ Triple A team, had lefthander Juan Perez headed for St. Louis, where the Phillies play the Cardinals on Thursday night. Contreras appears DL bound with sore elbow per Jim Salisbury. Hmmm no Schwimm??

  7. Harold Martinez now known as H-Mart our 3B of the future with a 2-5 night al beit 2K’s also. For those of you who have not seen any of his video you have to check him out. He does take some hacks so look out if he figures out how to make more contact.

    1. That Williamsport team is so intriguing. Martinez, Hudson and Altherr all have the chance to develop into big time prospects. Any word on Quinn signing? I’d love to see him at short or second on this team.

      1. I like Quinn also but he has his Florida State Scholarship as leverage so he might go down to the wire. Also many have questioned his hands and release as a top line line SS. Worst case is he can play center with his speed and plus arm.

        But yes we all want a true SS prospect in the system!

    2. Martinez has struck out quite a bit in the early returns. Along with his fellow draft signee Asche who has played 2B. Maikel Franco has played more than Martinez so far. Franco should be the priority at 3B for now, and hope they play both him and Martinez at 3B and DH and alternate every day.
      They had Dugan at 1B and an OF of Altherr LF, Hudson CF, and Witer Jimenez in RF. Hope they continue with that alignment as regulars. Since they have to have a SS also they can alternate Taylor Black, Matt Payton , and Drew Hillman. Catcher theycan continue to alternate Stumpo and Francisco Diaz for now.
      WPT roster thing : Percival Garner and Bryan Morgado to DL, as draft signee Colton Murray is put on roster.

      1. Don’t rain on my parade Marfis HMART is my horse in the 3B race to the bigs. Tongue in cheek of course but you know how it is we all get a guy we like for whatever reason.

        1. Yeah,checked, you are right , it has been only 11 AB, but it seems like more though because 6 of them
          were Strikeouts. Let’s see, let’s look up Mikael Franco 20 AB with 0 strikeouts. And that was really the point that Franco should alternate with the highly touted College draftee Martinez at 3B and DH until this becomes clearer.

  8. Question to throw out there today, in light of May’s performance: how do people rank the Clearwater 3? At this point, I’d go May, Cosart, Colvin, just because May seems to have the potential to develop into a dominant pitcher and hasn’t had the injury issues that Cosart has. He’s had control issues, but personally I’ll take those over injury issues, since control can get better over time, and seems to be in May’s case.

    This may not be just a theoretical question, obviously, because there may come a time when RAJ has to pick one of these guys to send elsewhere to get that elusive right-handed bat.

    1. He reminds me of a starters version of Bastardo when he was in the minors… strike out machine (plus plus stuff) but has command issues. IF and this is a semi-big IF, he can keep his BB/9 around 4 for the remainder of the year and next year at AA can manage to get it in the 3’s he’s going to be a top 15 in MLB prospect with #1 potential. He doesn’t have the inury concers as you pointed out, and his pure stuff seems to eclipse that of any other prospect in our system (as witnessed by his 12 k/9 average which hasn’t shown signs of slowing yet).

      Further, the big jump here for me is AA, more hitter friendly league, and walks will punish him more. If he can get his bb into the 3’s next year, i have great confidence in him being the top prospect in our org. as that will show a consistent trend of two strait years with improved command.

      1. Your comparison to Bastardo made me go back and dig up this scouting report on him from when he was at Clearwater. Which was wrong on almost every count, from upside (killer pitch is a changeup?) to downside (command is his strength). Just goes to show that we shouldn’t put too much stock in these national righties. I seem to remember Schwimer making a comment in one of his blog posts about laughing every time he heard some writer refer to Mike Stutes as “soft-tossing.”

        https://phuturephillies.com/2008/04/28/all-bastardo-all-the-time/

        1. Meant to say “national writers”–although I’m suspicious of righties as well.

  9. I think you have to rate Cosart first just because all of the reports say he clearly has the best stuff. Aside from that, I am not sure that we will be able to really get a fix on all of them until they make it through about half a year at AA (probably middle of next year, although I think Colvin might very well start next year at A+). If May continues to strike batters out at the same rate in AA, I’d probably only put him a hair behind Cosart.

    On the whole, the system is stacked with starters and relievers. While there is no clear superstar on the horizon (although one or two of them may develop as such), the depth of B+, A- pitching talent is staggering.

    1. Catch, I think if you take control and command into the equation you’re probably right. But from a raw stuff perspective, I think may has him beat. By raw stuff I definate that as strike out ability.

    2. How would you rate Biddle in comparison to those three? Is it too hard to make a comparison across the two different levels?

      1. The short of it is, we don’t know yet. His sample size is too small as he’s only pitched 110 innings in his career and it’s been across 3 levels (even harder to validate). He’s currently in A ball and is only 19 years old. That is certainly a plus for him. His k/9 is around 9 over his short career and he walks too many batters. He came out of Germantown as you probably know so his development is likely to be slow at first with the hope of huge gains later (under-developed/under coached).

        That said, Biddle still ranks as a top 10 prospect, but is no where near the level of development of our big 3. He’s 2 years behind IMO (yes i know, only 1 level in terms of his arrival in the majors.

        He could go either way, his odds of flopping are a bit higher but nothing we have seen so far has caused him to be downgraded. He’s just young and relatively inexperienced with a lot of unrealized upside.

      2. Yeah, I posed the question just as the Clearwater guys because they are so even on the merits and on the same level. Throwing in Biddle makes things a bit murkier.

  10. I remember a podcast when May was in his first stint at Lakewood. He took pride in being a bit wild. He said it kept the hitters off balance. Then he had a dose of reality at Clearwater. Now in his second stint at Clearwater he is talking about his command beginning with his fastball setting up his other pitches. An article in MLB today talks about the difference the new bats are causing in college; i.e., now the pitchers who were told to stay clear of the fastball inside to set up the other pitches, are no longer afraid of using it to do just that. It has always been the way to do it. Now May has discovered it. I hope his mechanics become consistent so he can be the top-of-the-line pitcher the Phillies had envisioned when they first saw his stuff. He has to potential to be very good for them.

  11. I’m still unsure why they promoted Aumont last week and didn’t just let him close for the rest of the year at Reading. I’m not freaking out over one outing, but 3 BB’s scares me more than him giving up a bunch of hits. Anyone catch the game last night? Would love to know whether he was around the plate or looked like a St. Louis Cardinal pitcher in the 8th inning Tuesday. Let’s hope for a strong rebound game from him.

  12. I watched the FSL all star game on TV. Cosart’s fastball was 94-97. He threw a curve and it was 71. His change was 78-80 and was clearly his worst pitch. May’s fastball was 92-93. His curve was excellent coming in at 78. I didn’t get to see Pettibone or Rodriguez pitch.

    1. Interesting on Cosart. Most pitchers need an off-speed pitch (usually change) about 8-10 mph slower than their fastball. Sounds like his off-speed pitches have too much difference at the moment and he really needs a change in the mid 80s. This is stuff he can learn and he has not really had a huge number of pro innings yet.

      1. I always thought that the magic number was 12 mph for the off-speed pitch. Either way, it seems he has some work to do.

        1. 8-10 mph of separation is pretty common and very effective. That’s the gap that both Hamels & Madson have between their fastballs & changeups.

          15 mph is too much and he’s probably telegraphing it with a change in his arm action to take that much off.

    2. This is extremely helpful and what I was looking to see. If May really throws between 92-93, well, it’s pretty hard to be a right-handed strikeout pitcher in the major leagues with that velocity. I wonder if he often touches 94-95 – as that, to me, is the speed at which righties generally begin to rack up Ks (Madson, for example, tends to be between 94-96 and even Stutes sits between 93-94).

      In any event, if Cosart is 94-97, that’s an entirely different class from a low 90s FB and, understandably, would give Cosart a head start on May if you are projecting where they might be in 2 or 3 years.

      1. I’m getting extremely mixed reports on May’s fastball… one thing i can say is it clearly has movement which is great. Velo is all over, i’ve read reports on anything from 89 to 96, I would say concensus is more like 91-93 at this time which is a reason to sour a bit on his results so far. We will see, at some point his rediculous strikeout numbers will either come down or he’ll spit in scouts faces. We shall see.

        1. But just to add, it’s his K rate that makes him a #1 vs a #3… I can remember a number of pitchers who suddenly jumped from 91/92 to 94/95 (Hamels did it, Madson did it etc…) He’s still quite young, and since he’s still growing, things may yet come togeather (once he stops and develops an “adult” frame).

      2. Thanks Darren, this matches up with what I have read at other sources like Keith Law, KG, Mike Newman, etc. May is 90-94 and every fastball is different (though perhaps that is changing as he becomes more consistent with mechanics). I’ve never heard May higher than 94. Cosart is mid-to-upper 90s and generates lots of groundballs. Pretty much each of those scout-type guys (Law, Goldstein, Newman) rates Cosart’s raw stuff as better. Plus I think BA gave Cosart’s FB a 70 on the 20-80 scale. The story on Cosart is that he needs to develop his secondary pitches. Perhaps May is farther along with his secondaries? Either way, they both look very good and at times look great. I’m happy to have them (plus Colvin and Pettibone) in our system.

        1. Yeah, I have to think that his stuff is pretty good to be getting these sort of ridiculous strikeout numbers. Even at Single A I think guys can catch up to a 90 mph fastball. I also saw him at Lakewood last year an I’m pretty sure I recall him being in the 93-95 range, although of course those ballpark guns are not always so accurate.

    3. From the klaw chat (thanks to Matthew, whoever you are):

      Matthew (Columbia, NJ)
      Keith, Trevor May fanned 14 last night. Does he have Ace potential?
      Klaw (2:05 PM)
      I like May but that’s way above his ceiling. And this is his second tour of duty in that league.

      1. I know it’s his second tour of duty, but isn’t the more relevant observation the fact that he is still entirely age appropriate for the level (and he is)?

        1. No offense to klaw, but his lack of actually baseball experience makes it hard for me to take his analysis farther than entertainment. Just a thought.

      2. There is in some people’s minds a notion that there is a division between the “numbers” guys and the “subjective observations” guys. This thread is more proof that this is not really the case. May is arguably more impressive from a purely numbers perspective. Well, that’s not strong enough – this year, at least, setting aside the age factor, he is CLEARLY more impressive than Cosart from a purely statistical perspective, and his K rates have always been much better.

        But most of the numbers guys, myself included, rank Cosart higher – because of “subjective” factors, or at least non-statistical factors. The whole discussion here is a great example of a smart discussion about prospects, integrating expert scouting opinions, specific observations about specific pitches and statistics.

        Of course the fact that Cosart is a year younger enters into it as well.

        I do think May has passed Colvin.

        Pettibone and J-Rod are two guys who again on a purely statistical basis look better than their reputations. Yet the numbers guys on this site slightly downgrade their chances for non-statistical reasons. (As do I for the same reasons, with the recognition that Pettibone in particular is looking like much more of a prospect this year, as is J-Rod to a somewhat lesser extent..)

        1. Trevor May and Jared Cosart both were out of high school in the draft class of 2008. I guess they would have the same number of years experience pitching?

          1. Sorta. May is 8 months older (so kind of splitting hairs on age) but he got some game action in during 2008 because he signed early compared to Cosart who signed late. So in 2009 Cosart was in the GCL while May had batters running for their lives in the Sally League.

          2. No. May had 12 IP in 2008, around 70 in 2009. Cosart had no IP in 2008, about 24 IP in 2009. May has over 280 IP in the minors versus around 160 for Cosart.

            FWIW, May’s K number have always been sick, Cosart’s “just” very good. OTOH, before this year Cosart’s BB numbers were much better. This year their BBs have converged.

            As arrogant as I can be, I’m modest with regard to projecting pitchers which is just really hard to do IMO. They are obviously both great prospects; at this point I have no reason not to accept the expert consensus, which is that Cosart is the better prospect.

  13. In the assessment listings of Clwtr starting pitchers above, Pettibone and J-Rod were not included. They were included in our pleasing labeling of some of “The Five” who’d form part of the big team’s future rotation.

    Asterisk: J-Rod was recently named as NOT having the necessary stuff to be a good MLB pitcher. (?) Pettibone is hailed for his excellent numbers this season, but nevertheless was not included in the best of that staff. (?)

    So…aside from the numbers, what is the realistic promise for all of them now…including how long it will be before they “qualify” to compete at the MLB level. (?)

    1. I meant no offense to Pettibone and Rodriguez, who are both having nice seasons. I guess I just meant that those other three are the ones who have consistently ranked high on our prospect lists, usually all of them in the Top 5. The other guys could turn out to be good too, I don’t know. But I feel like the other guys tend to get grouped together more.

  14. Nesseth, Pettibone, and Biddle are starting tonight. It’s a good time to be a Phils minor league fan.

  15. I read a report that discussed May’s change-up vs. his fastball. Basically, it said that while he should have the same mechanics when throwing both, he doesn’t, the delivery is different. The writer also said he was tipping his curve, and could easily tell when it was coming.

    The article is from February, so obviously he’s had time to correct these things, I’m wondering if he has …

    1. The article is from February and it is referencing a game from last season. Let’s hope he cleared things up.

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