2011 Reader Top 30, #28

The finish line is close. Leandro Castro edges out the field to take #27, meaning we have only 3 more spots to go. Lots of legitimately interesting guys will be left off the list, which really does speak to the strength of the system.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9. Tyson Gillies, OF
10. Justin De Fratus, RHP
11. Jiwan James, OF
12. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
13. Domingo Santana, OF
14. Aaron Altherr, OF
15. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
16. JC Ramirez, RHP
17. Matt Rizzotti, 1B
18. Jon Pettibone, RHP
19. Austin Hyatt, RHP
20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
21. Harold Garcia, 2B
22. Kelly Dugan, OF
23. Michael Schwimer, RHP
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Freddy Galvis, SS
26. Josh Zeid, RHP
27. Leandro Castro, OF

70 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #28

  1. At this point I feel that Pettis has to get some recognition. His tenure, as brief as it has been, as a Phillie farmhand has been dominant. One can only hope it continues.

    1. It seems like some people just won’t vote for him no matter what, but maybe he can sneak in the next round, since Perci Garner seems to have this one wrapped up.

      1. I was under the assumption he wasn’t even eligible until we were at like number 17. So I just decided to continue under that assumption. Otherwise I’d have given him some consideration by now.

        1. Mathieson was on the list last year, and I figure he was hardly in the majors long enough last year to use up any kind of eligibility.

        2. I’m sure several others had the same reaction. The early confusion about Mathieson’s status for this poll clearly cost him. I read comments from people exempting him and figured he had no chance. Tough luck but maybe he will get support before 30. I’ll vote for him.

        3. I just voted for Mathieson for the first time this year. Castro and Galvis certainly had to go in first in my mind, so it had nothing to do with eligibility. He’s on the ballot so he is clearly eligible for this list for this site.

          What I think hurt Mathieson compared to last year was his season wasn’t all that great. Yes, he was the Iron Pigs’ closer and won the Paul Owen Award, but his FIP of 3.50 in AAA does not wow me. His fastball is hard but straight, and at 27 this season he still needs to work on his command and on his secondary pitches. He did show that he could stay injury-free, which was the biggest question he had to answer last year at this time. Despite his age, due to his injuries he still lacks a lot of experience as a reliever, so still has time to improve. His fastball speed is a good tool to own so he may have some projectability left, but even “as is” he is a good bet to become at least a middle inning set-up man in a major league bullpen some day.

    2. Agreed. Some of the age thought on Mathieson is just plain stupid. He was pitching in the big leagues at 22, then was hit with injury after injury. Now at 27 he’s on the cusp again after totally re-inventing himself not only as a reliever, but a closer.

  2. Going Collier, Still think he has a legit shot.
    Decent 1st year at 17, Struggled 2nd year at 18, and missed a year due to injury.
    He was considered a 1st round Talent when signed and I still think he has a chance to turn things around.

    Lots of Upside for the 28th spot IMHO.

  3. I like Rupp’s handling of pitchers. I also think that he will assert himself with power hitting at Lakewood.

  4. If you are not sure whom to vote for, go read Garner’s profile and wonder why a potential #2 starter is this low on the board. Two plus pitches. He’ll be 22 at Lakewood this year, I hope he’s healthy and shows what he can do.

    1. There’s good reason why hes not on the list yet. He’s very raw for a college pitcher and he hardly pitched at all last year after we signed him. But he is a guy that I’ll be paying close attention to this year. It sounded like a great selection when they took him and hopefully it pays off in a big way.

  5. This is from MLB Trade Rumors:

    “The Orioles are one team that has shown interest in minor league free agent Kevin Mahar pending the resolution of the Vladimir Guerrero situation, MLBTR has learned. Teams are considering Mahar as an outfielder/first baseman at the Triple-A level, after the 29-year-old hit .261/.342/.423 for the Phillies’ Double-A affiliate.”

    Hopefully he can make the majors again on another team. He never would’ve played on the Phillies.

  6. I went with Nick Hernandez. He was having a killer year until he was sidelined by injury. The injury is always a concern but at #28, he’s a good fit. I also like Mario Hollands and would vote for him next. Garner and Pettis got a long look here too. I like to give the edge to southpaws at this point.

    I made my own executive decision that Mathieson is ineligible. I had him in the low 20s before I decided to remove him from prospect status. Decisions like mine make the top 30 picks that much harder. someone may have him in the mid-teens but because of people like me, he might never make the top 30. Maybe we should vote on eligibility before we start the vote. If we voted Mathiesion onto the Island, then he’d probably already be off the board.

    1. At last, someone mentions Mario Hollands. He seems to have much more upside than Pettis. I think he will be better than Morgado also. Maybe the 2nd best college pitcher drafted, behind Garner.

  7. At this point it’s all opinion, even more so than before.

    I liked what Nick Hernandez did in 2009. He had a rough 2010 but I’ll roll the dice on him going forward. Also like Rupp. I’ll probably vote the next 2 picks on whoever has the more votes (of those 2) to keep them ahead.

  8. I went with Nick Hernandez also as he was awesome before the injury. I hear that he’s feeling great and is ready to get going. He didn’t have the surgery so his health is going to be the issue all spring training. I expect he’ll start back at Lakewood. You guys like Holland more than Walter and Musser? I have them both rated higher than Hollands and Morgado but I know very little about any of them.

    1. I like Hollands upside better than the other college pitchers. I didn’t mean I like him better than the HS pitchers. Hollands seems like the type of talent that could turn into something, with good coaching.

  9. Where is Nick Hernandez going to pitch?
    He has to beat out two of those guys to be in the starting rotation.

    1. Hernandez and Rodriguez only pitched 56 innings apiece at Lakewood. I could see either landing back there to start 2011.

      1. Don’t you think both will end up in Lakewood? Especially if they plan on starting Rodriquez, since half his appearances @ Lakewood were out of the bullpen. Hernandez would probably be the first promoted, if he proves he’s healthy, since he’s 2 yrs older than Rodriquez.

    2. I agree that Hernandez will probably start in LWD. However, I think it is possible that Colvin, Cosart, and May are the only guarantees in CLE and the Phils will let Pettibone, Shreve, Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Correa duke it out in ST for the last two SP spots in CLE.

      Probably the more likely scenario has JC, BC, TM, JP, and CS starting in CLE with Correa coming out of the bullpen. That would leave NH, JR, Garner, Biddle, and Hollands in LWD? Perhaps Buchanan or Pettis ready to start in LWD if Biddle is not?

      From there, a hopeful scenario is one or more of the JC, BC, TM crew gets a promo to Reading mid-season and NH and/or JR gets the call to A+.

      Obviously a lot of this will get sorted out in ST.

      1. Too many guys and not enough spots. Obviously the Phillies should hold off on drafting pitchers in the next draft before we start seeing legitimate prospects become middle relievers in A-ball. (joking).

  10. Vote for Rupp ,

    Since it looks like Perci has a commanding lead, glad that he would be placed on ahead of some of the vote getters doing well in this segment. Mathieson , what is he ? 28? Anybody else that would be a drawback for the all knowing crowd on here, but out of the habit of voting for him in years past, guess the nostalgia vote is in operation, old home week. Nikolas Hernandez reputed to have torn shoulder stuff and did not re-establish himself after that. long shot. Pettis – nondescript, Stutes tending there also. Collier has not established himself for the past 2 years, when does a good write-up when drafted stop paying off . Way comes in 3 ways , not conclusively back from injury, everybody knows soft tossing lefty who may not have the guile to get by, borderline nondescript.

      1. Bozied is 31 (32 in July) & playing @ AA, Mathieson is 27 in Feb. & closing for LV(very well I might add), with strong potential to be on MLB roster, in the bullpen. What are the odds that any of the bottom ten from this list MAKE the MLB?? It’s not like anyone’s putting him in the top ten. This is probably his last legit shot @ making the majors, with the Phillies, due to additional strong bullpen candidates. Maybe an outside shot next yr., depending on what happens with Lidge, Madsen, etc.

        1. I think the rub on Mathieson for me and maybe others is that we have a good idea of what he is and what he’s going to be (just what you’ve stated). And so leaving him off the list is not dissing him or denying the fact that he’s “close” to being a “contributor” in the MLB … it’s just more fun to prognosticate about up-and-comers that we know less about.

    1. Nicholas Hernandez’ shoulder was not torn. He had a fray, correct? Isn’t there a big difference between the 2?

      1. Savery also had a ‘fray’ I think 4 years ago and his velocity never came back. A ‘fray’ is a tear, although hopefully a small one. Sounds much less serious when they say fray.

  11. I don’t know where else to put this, but from KLaw’s “30 Sleepers” (only a sentence from it, because it’s Insider content):

    “The Phils will try Altherr at third base this year after he improved his throwing mechanics.”

    I guess that answers the question of who’s playing 3B for Lakewood.

    1. It also helps out the other outfielders since they have a ton in the lower levels. I would think that they would try Hewitt there since he used to play 3B/SS.

      1. Hewitt sucked at 3B in his first pro season…so they moved him to CF. Hewitt is done. His next “move” is back to school to find a new career field.

    2. Aaron Altherr was a shortstop/pitcher his entire 4 years in high school. He was converted to the outfield by the Phillies when he was drafted.

      In addition, Kelly Dugan was a shortstop for his first few years in high school before being converted to a 1B/cf in his last years.

      1. It does beg the question…WHY was he drafted as an OF then. Clearly they had concerns about his ability to handle the infield as a pro.

        Note: The best player on a HS team almost always plays SP or SS.

  12. Interesting. Nothing wrong with a quote or discussion of the content of “Insider” stuff, without the direct re-posting of large blocks of content.

    Altherr at 3B , don’t see Travis Mattair being able to advance after a year off, so maybe this is competitive situation. I had Altherr as CF, so Dugan who I put at 1B, maybe can go to CF, and they place Jeffrey Cusick at 1B or in lieu of him they bring up GCL Christopher Duffy or Patrick Murray. Could be stock down for T. Mattair, Carlos Alonso, or the already down there Jake Smith, or maybe the latter 2 return to Williamsport, which might mean that the Maikol Franco advancement does not go forward, so the Lakewood projections on here and top 40 touting was a bit premature.

    1. Mattair will be at C Water at 3B. Dugan will stay in the infield at Lakewood as they still have plenty of OFs without Altherr.

  13. WHOOA Altherr at third. Could be a monster there. Former bball player, just like Mattair, probably has great feet.

    1. Agreed, that would be a great move if it stuck. It would alleviate the jam of OFs in low A and add value to him as a prospect (positional flexibility). He played SS in high school.

      1. From the Comment section of the blog post from KLaw in response to a question on whether Altherr can stick at third:

        “He’s athletic enough to pull it off.”

        Here’s to hoping.

  14. Reading Keith Law’s comments on Altherr made me think of Brown (naturally). Their stats are very similar at low levels:

    GCL (2006): BB rate: 9.2%; K rate: 25.6%; ISO: .051; AVE: .214; OBP: .292; SLG: .265
    Williamsport (2007): BB rate: 8.5%; K rate: 17.2%; ISO: .105; AVE: .295; OBP: .356; SLG: .400

    GCL (2009): BB rate: 8.7%; K rate: 17.9%; ISO: .071; AVE: .250; OBP: .283; SLG: .286
    W’port only (2010): BB rate: 7.7%; K rate: 13.8%; ISO: .138; AVE: .287; OBP: .350; SLG: .426

    That’s creepy, right? Now that was only 100 ABs in W’port for Altherr, and just because these numbers are similar it does not mean he is the second coming, but something about the way Law wrote him up and the similarity in the performance makes me think my personal ranking of him at #12 and our collective ranking of him at #14 could be conservative. Go Aaron!

  15. Anybody else vote for Perci Garner because you had forgotten about him, but then read that recent profile on this site and got really excited about his potential? It’s just funny, because if the write-up had been about Kevin Walther we might all be voting for him…

  16. Looks like Altherr and Franco might fight it out in the minor league camp for the Lakewood third base job. Must say Franco came along way defensively at third from the start of the minor league camp in March to holding down third in the GCL championship game last year. Should be interesting.

  17. Aaron Altherr at 3B really makes Lakewood interesting next year. Gives Guantlet Eldemire a fair shot at CF. Gives Dugan a chance to make the team as an OF. Gives Duffy a chance to make the team as the 1B.
    Bad news for Mattair, Buschini and Carlos Alonso.
    Rupp C
    Dugan 1B
    Hernandez 2B
    Duran SS
    Altherr 3B
    Santana LF
    Eldemire CF
    Alvarez RF
    Duffy DH
    There is an interesting player at every position, in that lineup

    1. Mike,

      You think the Gauntlett will start in Lakewood? I’d be surprised if he started there. He hasn’t had a single professional AB yet and he had some injuries that set him back. I’m think SS in Wmsprt to start. Hewitt’s going to get every opportunity to show that he was worth his signing bonus. I’m pretty sure he’ll fail but Collier and Hudson also have to show their stuff. It’s time for these guys to get their shot too. Don’t rule out Singleton starting in Lakewood as he learns the OF.

      By the way, I really like Alvarez in Lakewood. He’s high on my list of guys that will be biggest surprise.

      ST will be interesting. There’s a lot of pressure on some of these OF’ers to prove they belong… somewhere.

      1. Bellman, just taking an un-educated guess. Eldemire is older than Hewitt and Collier. Seems a waist to start a highly regarded college player in SS at age 22, when Collier and Hewitt haven’t done anything to merit the spot.
        I’m not sure.the Phillies need to try to recap the money they spent on either player. They have gotten so much out of the 2008 draft, that hoping to get something out of those two would just be being greedy.

  18. I’m going with Garner here. My next pick will be Walter, based on the huge amount of success the Phils have had with high school bonus baby righties.

  19. OTHER: John Claiborn Mayberry Jr.

    I have him next on my list after Garner and Mathieson, so could be wanting to vote him at #30. He is a good corner outfielder, has a good arm, can also play center, is a plus runner, has plus power, and can hit well enough to start against lefties at least, so he’ll likely make the Phillies 25-man roster this season out of spring training. He is unlikely to ever be a star but, I’ve seen enough late bloomers to rule out him ever becoming a major league regular.

      1. I’m really past the point where I can consider guys like Mayberry and Mathieson for this list. They are just too old. Guys who are approaching 30 years old and are still struggling in the minors are much less interesting to me than some of the names on the low totem pole who are much more age-appropriate for their leagues (even if it’s DSL/VSL).

  20. @Boston phan,
    BA Pre draft: “Mario Hollands has better size at 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, and resembles, in both build and delivery, David Price of the Rays… his stuff is not as electric, but Hollands figures to have value as either a starter or lefthanded relief specialist… Hollands has nothing overpowering but shows a five-pitch assortment… displays an 88-91 mph four-seam fastball, 83 mph two-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. The knock on Hollands is that he’s susceptible to a big innings… usually attributable to sudden mechanical breakdowns such as opening his front side too soon, dropping his arm slot and losing his leg drive.”

    6’5 LH pitchers don’t grow on trees. I would think pro coaching could improve his mechanics.

  21. Garner this round. Will swing my support to whoever is leading between Cameron Rupp or Kevin Walter next round.

  22. Spoke with a scout that watched Rupp yesterday at the Texas alumni game. Told me that it’s clear that he has received professional instructing at the plate. The good news is that his swing is not nearly as “jerky” as it was during his senior season.

    On the other hand, I was told he had packed a few lb’s on his frame and that it wasn’t all muscle.

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