74 thoughts on “August 18th Discussion”

  3. Miguel Alvarez was 2 – 2 with a HR in the All-Star game. Cesar Hernandez was 1 – 2 with a triple. Lanning and the pitchers weren’t as good. Pettis and Chase Johnson gave up all 4 runs with Johnson taking the loss. Holland escaped with no runs and 2 Ks in his inning of work but hit 2 batters.

    Aumont walked 6 in his 6 innings of work. None of the walks played any part in the 2 runs he gave up so maybe I should say, Aumont scattered 6 BBs. I’m just trying to soften the thought of walking 6.

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  4. Cody Overbeck is having a nice August with an OPS of 1.001. I recall Keith Law saying he doesn’t trust players who improve drastically at the end of a minor league season since there are a lot of call-ups from lower levels that dilute the talent pool. Still, it’s nice to see Overbeck produce after a rough opening in AA.

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  5. An optimist would say that despite the six walks, Aumont had better than a quality start, 6 innings, two runs (quality start is six innings, three runs). Aumont and Trevor May appear to have more in common than many of us would like to admit.

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  6. @ SIFPA

    That’s an interesting comparison, and while there are definitely similarities between the two, May seems to be a more dominant pitcher – lots more Ks, give up fewer hits. I was about so say May has more control issues than Aumont, but I just checked and May has 79 BB in 118 IP vs 74BB/107IP for Aumont. So, yes, their wildness numbers are very similar.

    I’m guessing that May will rank higher than Aumont on most prospect lists. His overall numbers are better, but there are quite a few similarities (realtively close in age, size). I’d hate to say it, but Aumont also carries a certain albatross around his neck that he was acquired in a trade, which will cause fans to judge him a bit more harshly.

    – Jeff

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  7. Gotta second the post about Garcia and De Fratus being for real. Garcia may eventually end up being our low-cost solution to a utility infielder. De Fratus is actually posting BETTER peripherals (other than HR/9 which is up just a slight tick) in Reading than he did in Clearwater. With Lidge signed through the end of next year, I’m guessing De Fratus will start 2011 in Lehigh and make his way up to the big league club in September (barring any other injuries or departures). Schwimer could very well debut in Philly along with Mathieson to start 2011 and solve some of our bullpen issues with low-cost options. VERY happy with the progress some key bullpen guys have made, and Garcia has just been fantastic this year. People have been griping about our lack of depth to fill out the major league roster through our minor league system, but I don’t think any of those people will have a leg to stand on come 2011.

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  8. Jesse Biddle now in short season A ball and will actually be pitching before fans in the stands. Let’s see if he can help Williamsport hold on to its wild card playoff spot in the NY-Penn.

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  9. Question for those that may know, when a major leaguer comes back from the DL and has his minor league rehab starts. How is it decided or what factors go into where said major leaguer does his rehab. For example Rollins and Utley they did their rehab in A+ Clearwater, where as it seems pitcher Madson, Happ (before trade) and others do theirs in AA Reading or AAA LV. Is there any method to this, is it talent based vs where they’re at in rehab or player prefernce or what?

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  10. Much of the time it depends on whether a team is home or not. Sometimes a player rehabs at Reading, and then when Reading goes on a roadtrip, they make the short hike up to LV, if they are home. It works both ways sometimes. Players have also done the same thing with Lakewood being home, and then when they go on the road, they let the player go to Reading, if they are playing home games.
    Sometimes the player is sent to Clearwater, so they can also take advantage of the rehab facilities available at the complex. Also, since 2 tems play there (FSL and GCL) there are more opportunities for AB’s, with some players playing 2 games in one day.

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  11. I called that callup when he signed. Thought they might want to see him for a couple starts against better comp. Then he takes that knowledge into FIL and ST next year. They must like how he is throwing pretty much.

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  12. He seems like an excellet prospect I really like his control at the back end of the bullpen Btw. Patrick lidge has option next year no way it gets picked up

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  15. It’s time to stop experimenting with Aumont as a starter—there’s enough starting depth in the low levels that we don’t even need him there. Move him back to the pen and see if he can find some control and add a little life on his fastball as a result of the decreased workload.

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  16. I’m of the mind it is better for a pitcher to be starting if you’re trying to work out control issues. How does one work out these issues in short stints out of the bullpen? Not saying he’s a long term starter, but keep him getting innings while he works on things.

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  17. Relief pitchers tend to vary greatly year to year. Add rookies onto that trend and I would have less confidence that Bastardo, Mathieson, Schwimmer, DeFratus will all fill the leverage side of the bullpen in 2011 & 2012.

    Bastardo is the best case for concern. He absolutely dominated minor league hitters. In the majors he walks a ton of guys. Of the young relievers he has major league and post season experience. I would not expect him to just wilt in big situations.
    Mathieson still throws a straight fastball and if he cannot locate it, he will get lit up like Madson pitching the ninth inning.

    If Charlie is willing to let these guys pitch, and so far he has not, these guys will prove who can pitch high leverage situations in the majors. The problem is allowing the losses to pile up while figuring it out. Having 4 guys with plus stuff stacks the odds in the Phils favor though. (Maybe Rube needs to tell Charlie one of these guys is a Rule5 pick so they stay on the roster for more than 1 appearance!)

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  19. Not sure if this was posted, but I believe Kelly Dugan has also been called back up to Williamsport (he’s listed as active). Probably because Brian Pointer & Kevin Walter have been added to GCL roster?

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  21. 2011’s cheap relievers will probably be Bastardo or Zagurski as the replacement for Romero and Mathieson in place of Herdon who will be send to the minors and converted to a starter. I think that is the real reason they have kept him on the roster the entire season.

    Schwimmer/Defratus probably have a due date of 2012+ unless they need to fill in for injuries. I think the Phillies will try to resign Durbin and will also sign one FA veteran to replace Contreras while Madson, Lidge, and Baez all have 1 more year on their respective contracts.

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  22. I can’t believe baez contract is so BIG they wont move him or release him. mathieson will be in the pen .

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  23. It would be silly to release Baez now. Relievers are notoriously up and down. He could come back next year and be really solid.

    The Phils will definitely need some young guys to contribute in the pen though. I think Bastardo will be fine, he just needs a chance to work out his major-league jitters and throw the way he does in the minors. That chance will come early next year.

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  24. mikemike, setting aside the question of whether the Phillies SHOULD start the season with 3 rookies in the pen (I think they shouldn’t, but that’s a tiresome and non-resolvable argument), by history and philosophy the Phillies pretty surely WON’T do that. Which means that if Baez is replaced*, he probably will be replaced by a cheap(ish) FA, since I think that 3up3kkk is correct that 2 rookies will be in the pen even if Baez isn’t replaced.

    In any event, pennants are rarely won or lost based on the quality of the last pitcher on a 12 man staff, who is rarely going to be pitching in crucial situations anyway.

    *I think he may be replaced – your correct that his salary is low enough that they would consider eating the second year of the contract. If he isn’t replaced, it will because the team, with more information than any of us has, is convinced that he can rebound from this year’s performance.

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  25. I think it’s entirely possible that there is a youth movement in the bullpen next year; there have been echoes of this in what Amaro has said, if I recall.

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  27. They should have plenty to choose from if there is to be a youth movement.

    Bastardo, Carpenter, Herndon*, Mathieson, Stutes, Worley, Zagurski.

    * Herndon is young and under team control, much to the discontent of the swarm of Herndon-Haters. I prefer his pitching and cost to Condrey any day.

    Options indeed.

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  29. I think it’s clear they can and should work multiple rookies into the pen over the next couple of years – there are indeed several worthy candidates – the questions are pace and whether any of them are closer/set up man material. On the first question, I think it will and should happen somewhat gradually. I’m agnostic on the second question; I think there are reasons to question whether any of that crop are ready for high leverage situations on a regular basis, though a couple of them could develop into players who can be relied upon in those sorts of situations.

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  30. Wish I knew how the love for herdon starter, what has he shown, nothing when I have seen him, totally. totally cant figure it out.

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  31. Mike, David Herndon has a 94 mph sinking fastball which is very good but he needs another pitch or two to go with it. He will probably go to the AFL and Lehigh Valley to work on them. I would not be surprised to see him back up with the Phillies as soon as mid next year.

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  32. The question I have about Herndon is why he has only 4.1 K/9 with that pitch. Even without the secondary stuff, and even assuming some command problems, one would expect a 94 mph sinking fastball to translate into more than 4.1 K/9. Heck, Kyle Kendrick has a better K rate than that this year. Kyle freaking Kendrick.

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  33. The phuture bullpen should be an entire off season topic. I agree there are many young options but the major league philosophy has been to go with old vets (Contrares, Park, Eyre). I am curious to see who wins out. Finding a replacement for 2008 post-season Madson-Lidge is extremely difficult.
    However, I fully expect Mathieson, Bastardo, and Zagurski (and Worley) to get Sept call-ups and will likely pitch ahead of Baez and Herndon. Who gets in higher leverage situations will be a good competition for a possible post-season roster spot.

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  34. Moved up both Biddle and Dugan to Wmspt to play out the season.

    Just like I was talking about. So this sets both of them up to open at Lakewood at ’11s season beginning.

    SEEMS as if the Phils now want to move UP their prospects a little more rapidly to get them to AAA & AA a bit faster.

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  36. Well sure. But 4.1 or even Kendrick’s current total – 4 point something, too busy to check – is sub par. And I’m not even so much saying that it excludes him as a prospect – he could increase it and the sinker suggests he could be a ground ball pitcher (and his GB% is already pretty good), which would to some extent make up for the low K%. But it just seems … odd to me. Guys with low K percentages generally don’t throw that hard, and/or they have no movement. 94 mph sinker suggests he doesn’t have either of those problems.

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  37. I have no particular love for Herndon but its obvious the Phillies see something (probably that 92-94 sinker) they like since he’s stayed on the roster all season. That’s why I think they convert him to a starter to work on his secondary stuff.

    As for Baez, the Phillies aren’t going to release him until the have time to see if he bounces back in 2011.

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  38. Herndon’s a two pitch pitcher, and his slider isn’t very good. It’s hard to strike guys out with just a fastball unless you’ve got a fastball like Strasburg. Even Zumaya strikes out less than one per inning, and he sits 99-100.

    If he can tighten up the slider and pick up a usable change or something, he’ll strike a few more guys out.

    I doubt Baez bounces back. He’s 33 and hasn’t put two decent seasons together since 2006. That was an inexplicable signing through and through.

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  39. They haven’t moved Dugan up quickly. This is his 2nd season. He was already assigned to Williamsport. He just got hurt and others took his spot on the team. Personally, I would get Hudson out of the lineup and get other players some ABs. Same for Hewitt at Lakewood.

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  40. Art D. I must say that I hope you’re right about them moving the prospects along. Reading and LV sure could use some help.

    Personally, I think that next year will be a lot of fun watching the prospects as they move out of Lakewood and Clearwater and up to levels where we can get a better idea of what the Phils org has. I’m looking forward to it.

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  44. @Mike77: I see what you’re saying, especially with Hudson. But first, you have to see this kid play center field. He’s a major league glove right now. And in the New York-Penn League, you win with pitching and defense. The Cutters have six pretty darn good outfielders right now which isn’t a bad problem to have. But none of the other five play defense anywhere near the way Hudson does. And his offense has really been coming around. He and hitting coach Jorge Velandia have been working almost exclusively on hitting the ball to the opposite field, and it has shown over the last two to three weeks. He’s starting to get confident in his swing again and is starting to drive the ball to the pull side as well. The numbers don’t look good. They look downright bad. But the strides he’s made this season are fantastic. He’s still the guy I think the organization thinks has the biggest upside of the people in Williamsport.

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  47. D’Arby Myers has a .996 OPS in his last 10 games. Maybe, things are starting to click for him.

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  48. D’Arby is playing more since Gose was traded. I think if he gets the ABs he can make a little noise. Didn’t Jiwan James mention in his interview that D’Arby beat him in a foot race? That’s impressive speed.

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  49. Interesting stat from last night’s games (Wednesday). Heitor Correa pitched 7 innings, gave up 8 hits, 2 Runs had 2 Ks and 3 BBs. There’s nothing interesting about that but he had 15 flyouts and ZERO ground outs. That’s not something you see often or want to see often. Remember 100% of the balls hit on the ground can’t leave the park for a round-tripper. Of course, if a guy has wheels and the ball takes some wild caroms, he could leg out an inside-the-park HR.

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  50. Thanks for the extra insight on Hudson, Mitch. I know you wrote a piece with some positive comments about Hewitt last year, too. I can appreciate that. There is a lot of negativity directed at those two players. I usually don’t participate, but there are about 7 OF that will need ABs at Lakewood next year. Santana, Alvarez, Dugan, Altherr and Collier will need ABs next year. Right now it is hard to see Hudson or even Hewitt hitting better than 4 of those guys.

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  51. Hey, what’s happened to Collier? Don’t see him playing anywhere.

    Hurt? Or maybe getting a complete makeover. A shame in that he was a guy to get excited about when drafted according to scouting reports. So far a complete bust, but injuries have intruded on his play time, plus lousy performances when he did play.

    Somewhat similar to D’Arby Myers: both failing to live up to expectations and spending most time on the DL.

    Still, both are still young enough to get it back together. But as time goes by, their door to better pro success could close in a year or two. Glad that Myers is getting plenty of playing time now. Here’s wishing him a much better performance now.

    Collier? No sightings. Gose and he were drafted at the same time. Now Gose is gone, and Collier is MIA. Could be a lost cause…Hoping for the best.

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  53. Collier will be a rehab project. I have not given up on him. He is talented and came in with some good reports on hitting ability, a different report than a guy like Hewitt. I think all or most of Collier’s performance struggles and missed playing time have been injury-related. Hopefully, he is healthy next spring and starts his career from there.

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  54. Ordered my tickets for Jesse Biddle’s expected debut Saturday night in Williamsport. So far in the GCL it’s been the tale of two pitchers for Jesse. In six of his nine starts in 25. 2 innings he gave up 17 hits, 3 earned runs, walked 5 and struck out 33. In his other three starts he pitched 7.2 innings giving up 18 hits, 13 earned runs , walked 4 and struck out 8. Should be an interesting Saturday night.

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  56. Too bad for Gillies, but obviously he needs to get completely healthy before trying to play again. Playing hurt hasn’t worked out for him. Hopefully they can figure out what is wrong and if it’s just rest he needs, he can get in a few months of it before next season begins.

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  57. That sucks about Gillies. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tough to come back from as I know from experience. If he tore the muscle it can be a full year to get back to full strength.

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  59. I think they would be getting close to doing that. The season is about over but he will probably get another 25-30 innings counting playoffs which would get him to around 150.

    Have to think that is at the upper end for his workload.

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  61. Lendy Castillo threw a beauty of a game today in the GCL – 6IP, 1H, 1BB, 5K. The conversion has seemed to go well for him.

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  62. Nobody has mentioned the 9 inning shutout by Adrien Sierra in DSL? I know he is in his age 21 season in the DSL, but maybe they can bring him over and put him through a GCL/WPT season next year…he’s only given up more than 1 run in a game once all season, IIRC. I looked at the stats earlier today, so correct me if I’m wrong.

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  63. It must be tough for Gillies, and the Phils, to deal with his season-long DL. And what makes it worse is that it seems that he won’t be playing in the AFL which could have made up for some of the time he’d lost this season.

    A complete medical work-up is certain to take place in addition to what has already been done. Having him miss even more time to the DL would make him less of a candidate to take over CF for Vic when HIS contract runs out. I have thought that this was the Phils’ plan when they chose him in that trade.[The new strategy: to keep the team filled with superior players: Vic and first Werth will yield 2 early draft picks each. Gillies would be Vic’s replacement in this scheme]

    Does this “plan” now take a hit if Gillies can’t progress with health and play in ’11? Yes, it would put a crimp in it.

    So, here’s hoping that the cause and cure for Gillies can be found this off-season.

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  67. Brian Pointer reminds me of what Tyler Colvin was, when he was drafted by the Cubs a few years ago. Not as highly rated of course, but similar reports on his skills.

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  68. Art I am interested what makes you think Gillies has shown anything but speed to replace Victorino?? He had one good year in a ball hitters league, let him prove himself,he isnt a top prospect except for speed, May if he ever finds his control could be the best pitcher we have down on the farm, but that is a big if>

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  69. Mikemike, Arty never said HE thinks Gillies can do it, he only stated he thinks that was the Phillies plan. It’s a legitimate question and one had to wonder what the new plan would be, as I agree that iis there plan. now, I’m not saying Gillies is to be forgotten, just that this was a wasted year and next year will be even more important for him

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  70. I am really impressed with Worley. He has pitched well in 4 of his 5 Lehigh Valley outings. I see no reason why he can’t replace Kendrick as the No.5 starter next season, heck at this point he could jump over Blanton.

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  71. mikemike…it seems like you are a glass is half empty person…lots of negative vibes..we need to get you in a more positive mindset..glad to see Pointer get his first hit in his first pro AB…Dugan with a pair of doubles and threw out a runner tonight..Worley pitching well…Mathieson another strong outing and a save..James going deep twice for Lakewood (having a good year)…shame about Gillies..he seemed to have a good Spring with the team…well he will start back at Reading and hopefully healthy next year…May has done a lot better job in Lakewood with control as his BB/9 is at 3…and what he is still just 20/21.

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  72. MM:

    Yes, I believe that was the Phils’ plan. It would turn out to be a good one if Gillies talents and health permitted.

    Further, we won’t know very much about him and what he could bring to the team, yet. Like others have many times said here and elsewhere, the jury is out and won’t be back until maybe ’12. 2012 is when Vic’s contract is up, post season.

    As for Gillies’ skills, he does have outstanding speed (when not injured), and the reports have been that he plays an excellent center field with a strong arm. All that is in his favor and as far as I know none of that is disputed. They all are highly desired qualities of a ML center fielder.

    That leaves 2 things to determine: will he hit with at least a little power and with a high OBA to leadoff; and, does he have the character to overcome a lost season and come back ready and able to fulfill expectations. I expect the latter character “issue” to be a no-brainer for a guy who is legally deaf which shortcoming has already been overcome by his skills and determination.

    So it’s up to the OBA and some power.

    Finally, MM, your “question” was more than an inquiry: it was a challenge. If your purpose is to challenge others opinions in such a manner, I suggest you first take a course in civility.

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  73. D’Arby Myers raced Jiwan James, Gose, Gillies and Dominick Brown, Myers is the fastest. He beat them all.

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  74. CFlynn, you’re wrong about him racing them all. See J.J.’s interview at this site

    Jiwan James Q and A

    “We haven’t all raced at one time. I ran with D’Arby in spring training and he won. I’m willing to say it’s probably either D’Arby or Tyson (Gilles) that’s the fastest.”

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