It was confirmed through the IronPigs that Michael Taylor was called up. He is starting in left field and hitting third. Phillies Assistant GM Benny Looper mentioned that Jason Donald has a slight setback and is currently running at about 75%. The ‘Pigs are hoping to have Donald back in the lineup next week.
Kyle Kendrick (6-5) picked up his 9th quality start in his last 10 starts, going 8 very strong innings against Rochester in the Lehigh Valley 5-4 win tonight. Kendrick gave up just 5 hits, didnt walk a batter and struck out 5. He threw 87 pitches, 63 for strikes. In his Lehigh Valley debut with his parents in the stands, Michael Taylor was 0-3 with a walk and a run scored. He hit a ball very hard, lining out to third base and was very impressive running the bases, scoring from first easily on a double.
Phuture Phillies 
I think they wanted him to play in the EL All star game.
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Good for him.
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Does this mean he’s off the block? that would be good news! I love the move so he can get the slow start out of the way this year, play in the AFL and get ready to rake in LHV next year. Because of AFL he could be a 4th OF and not lose development. If he’s not ready then 2011 will be his job to lose @ 25.
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Right on schedule.
Dom Brown to Reading when rehab is over?
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Well deserved.
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I still want to see what Brown, Taylor and Berry can do for an entire year together.
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Does this make him near major league ready high end talent?
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Someone made the point in the last thread he’d probably stay in AA until August so as to not dimish his value. I thought it was good logic. This move surprises me at this juncture.
With the rumors being the Jays don’t like the Phils prospects because they aren’t ‘major-league ready’ mean this move is front office taking a chance to show he is closer to major league ready then previously thought?
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he’ll be able to fill in for werth when werth starts demanding money like rowand. Hopefully Taylor doesn’t get traded.
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This is great! he seems like a smart kid ,now he will get a lot of breaking balls,and be playing with alot of 30 something year olds,this is his final exam,
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Does anybody get moved to Reading to take Taylor’s place? I guess Brown would have been the likely choice if he hadn’t been injured and was now undergoing rehab. Could they decide that he is ready anyway?
The other possibility is Susdorf who is doing quite well but only has 75 AB in Clearwater. However, at 23 he is one year older than Brown and maybe they should find out if he is for real.
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In the other thread, tjc reported Kennelly is moving up from Clearwater to Reading. I would assume Brown is going to Clearwater for a bit.
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Rodeo I doubt they will trade Drabek, Brown or Knapp who they see as the top prospects for this team. The odd man out is Taylor who I would hate to lose because I like him more than brown.
The Rays want major league talent so they may ask for a combination of happ/drabek and taylor/brown
My guess is the phils will offer happ and taylor with donald, marson and another 2 tier pitcher (carasco/savery) and fillers like a kendrick, carpenter and others
so basically I think they will ultimately give away
Happ
Taylor
Donald
Marson
Savery
Kendrick
Freddy Galvis
that should be more than enough actually that may be too much considering Toronto GM J.P. Richardi is not allowing talks with Halladay in terms of a contract extension before a trade can be made. So if we throw in 2 more players and take taylor out I would be happy with that meaning we give up two/three mid level prospects, a major leaguer, and fillers
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I wouldn’t read too much into this move as far as a potential Halladay deal goes. Two reasons: (1) two weeks worth of at bats (whether they go well or poorly) isn’t going to change his Top 50 prospect status; and (2) if we assume arguendo that he’s not being traded, bumping him to Lehigh Valley is what the organization should have done anyway.
Congrats to Michael, as he’s certainly earned his promotion. Best of luck adjusting to Triple-A.
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Good for Taylor bad for me, I was really looking forward to seeing him (if not traded) at Trenton Thunder in August. Oh well.
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Thats insane man. If the Phillies made that trade (benins) Ruben Amaro would be fired.
Will you people GET IT OUT OF YOUR HEADS that theyre going to trade JA Happ or Kyle Drabek or Michael Taylor.
Maybe Brown will be traded, maybe Knapp. Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Savery all seem available.
The Phillies will not trade their top hitting or top pitching prospects in ANY trade. teams just dont do that often at all.
The Jays will have to accept considerably less than that prosposed deal to send Halladay Off
Id offer Brown OR Knapp (on DL, so Brown)
TWO or THREE of Carrasco Donald Savery Gose Marson
TWO filler. Its just not worth giving up all that. Thats the act of a desperate team, and the Phillies arent desperate.
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This really has nothing to do with the trade talk. Taylor needed a new challenge, that’s really all there is to it.
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save your breathe on the trade front,noth’n big is going to happen tradewise 4 this team,you heard it here not first,but again
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Per http://www.milb.com OF Tim Kennelly was moved from the Clearwater to the Reading roster today.
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I think I said on an earlier thread that this is what was going to happen. IMO it has no impact on value or trade negotiations – TPTB probably would have moved him earlier but saw no harm in waiting for a couiple of weeks, let him play in the ASG (considering he wasn’t chosen for the Future’s Game) and then bump him to LHV. The Phils will likely treat him like any other prospect regardless of whether he is trade-bait or not.
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Tim Kennelly moved up to Reading to take Taylor’s spot. I’m excited about both moves, especially since Dominic Brown and Galvis appear to be close to returning to Clearwater from their rehab in GCL.
Moving Taylor could mean a few different things. One being they don’t care if he gets off to a sluggish start in Allentown because he’s not getting moved anyway. Two could be, as someone had previously alluded, the Jays need to feel more confident that he is closer to major league ready. Either way, I’m happy for the much deserved callup and hope we find a way to keep him. September callup now seems more likely as well, since he’s just one level from the bigs.
Although I’m not sure if they’d want to start the clock on him just yet, unless our RH bat off the bench isn’t producing.
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Word is that Michael Taylor is getting promoted to AAA. Is it risky to promote someone you’re trying to use as a trading chip?
Keith Law (1:12 PM)
More reward than risk for a player who’s performing really well, as Taylor was. If he continues to perform at the higher level, his value increases. Speaking of Taylor, had two conversations with scouts about him and Drabek in the last week, and they independently said the same things – Taylor was a solid 50, and Drabek was a 2/3 rather than a potential 1. Both questioned Taylor’s power potential.
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At AA they just stopped giving Taylor much to hit and started to pitch him way inside to back him off the plate . Saw him play over last weekend in three games and he walked 4 times and was hit by a pitch. In his last 15 games he had walked 9 times and was hit by a pitch 4 times. It was time for him to move on up!
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@ 6’5″ 250 and the ball screams of pain, on most of his hits and hitting at CBP ,is 25-30 homers a year questionable power? i think not
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well in addition to the promotion, Taylor will also be getting a pay raise:)
something most of us didn’t really consider until the schwimer blog but I’m sure it comes as welcome news to a guy who has a college degree from stanford.
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I don’t disagree with Klaw’s comments. I think Drabek is more likely to settle in at a #2 than a #1 and I think Taylor is not quite the all-star in the making that most here seem to think he will be. Doesn’t mean a solid to above-average major leaguer on the cheap isn’t very valuable, but not a franchise carrier.
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Klaw strikes again!
Seriously, it’s not a surprising move at all. I think we all figured out the Phillies plan when he was moved from Clearwater to Lakewood. At Taylor’s age if he’s showing mastery of a level there is no need to keep him anywhere for more then 1/2 of a year.
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Scouts said that not Keith Law.
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I don’t disagree with Klaw’s comments. I think Drabek is more likely to settle in at a #2 than a #1 and I think Taylor is not quite the all-star in the making that most here seem to think he will be.
That may or may not be true greg but you and i know it’s not always the blue chippers that are the impact players. 5 or 6 years ago who would have thought utley and howard would be impact players? utley couldn’t field and didn’t hit quite as well as taylor and ryan had a hole in his swing that wouldn’t translate into a succesful MLB career. Desire matters as well and taylor seems to have it, not sure about drabek but it appears he does as well.
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The Phils have more minor league talent now than anytime in the last 45 years. It is a shame that they will need to trade players in a few years that are better than most of the players on the team right now, because there is no room on the 25 man roster.
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Its amazing how Keith Law can rate our prospects without ever seeing them play. Anybody who has seen Drabek pitch, Taylor hit etc will tell you they are both extremely high ceiling players, no reason why Drabek CAN”T be a number 1 starter. Taylor could very well be a perenall All Star player.
Taylor getting called up has nothing to with trades or anything, it has everything to do with Taylor’s natural progression. Lets not forget he is not a 22 year old, he is 24.
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I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that Keith Law has seen Drabek and Taylor play a number of times. I have no clue where you would have gotten that information.
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The Phillies aren’t as stupid as some make them out to be – the one thing they have gotten pretty good at doing is moving more talented minor leaguers in to replace underperforming major leaguers. It may not always happen as quickly as one might like, but it does happen.
I’m excited for Taylor. The word from many is that he hits the ball incredibly hard, but even if he ends up being a 20-30 homer guy and not a 40 homer guy – if he plays the field well, runs the bases well and hits around .300, who cares? As I’ve said before, those are Dave Parker stat.s – I’ll take another Dave Parker any day of the week and this line-up definitely needs a high-average. moderate power guy more than it needs another homer/strikeout guy.
My question is for next year, not this year – how is the player logjam going to be resolved? How does Taylor get playing time? Where does it come from? The Phillies 3 outfielders all made the All-Star game. Not a lot of extra room out there.
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BigB, Taylor is 23, born 12/19/1985.
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Nothing wrong with Drabek being a #2 pitcher. We could use a #2 pitcher right now, in fact*.
*not saying call him up, just saying the Phils would love a top tierish pitcher and that’s what a #2 tends to be.
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To put this in context, Taylor is a year younger than Howard was when he had his breakout minor league season. During his age 23 season, I believe Howard hit 23 homers in Clearwater.
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I noticed the wolf pack that follows me around is no where to be found today. Yesterday they brought up Carpenter who followed with a poor man’s Bob Gibson performance at the allstar game and now Taylor goes up.
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“How does Taylor get playing time? Where does it come from? The Phillies 3 outfielders all made the All-Star game. Not a lot of extra room out there”.
Taylor will take Werth’s place who can then be used as trade bait. Don’t get me wrong, I have a high regard for Werth’s talent. But Taylor is capabe of hitting .330 in the big leagues as he has done in every league he has played in. Werth is a 260-.270 hitter.
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The Klaw chat had a lot of good Phils questions and man he doesn’t have a high opionion of the phils prospects. If just goes to show you that scouting is such an inexact science, in that after the futures game Klaw came away with a so so impresion of Drabeck while Jerry Cresnick came away impressed enough to write an entire article about his performance. Here is a particularly negative answer from Klaw’s chat
Andrew (New York City)
Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don’t love Drabek and your past articles that you don’t love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA’s most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).
Keith Law (1:55 PM)
I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he’s probably two full years away and carries some risk.
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Taylor is in the lineup and hitting 3rd for LV tonight
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First thing Raul can’t play everyday, next he will be 38. Second
check the stats Werth has trouble with a lot of right hander
he can sit some out. Third people get hurt.
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Sorry Guys Taylor is 23. Still natural progression for him to go to AAA. As far as Keith Law goes, I know some people who work for the Reading Phillies. Never saw Keith Law there once. I stand by my point, Keith Law does not see these guys play. I am sure he does talk to the scouts who do however.
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Isn’t one of the major pluses about Talyor the fact that he is RH bat? Replacing Werth with Taylor seems counterproductive to balancing out the LH heavy lineup. Obviously this doesn’t leave many options other than Ibanez and considering his contract I don’t see him going anywhere outside of another injury.
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KLaw was at the Future’s Game behind homeplate with a radar gun…so he did, at least see Drabek play among others.
The KLaw bashing is getting a bit old.
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NEPP, Not trying to bash Keith Law but I just don’t understand how he can be so down on Drabek and Taylor without seeing them play. Seeing them play in what equates to an All Star game in the Futures game is not enough. I really believe he gets his information from Scouts though which is a concern. If scouts feel that way about Drabek and Taylor thats not good
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“The KLaw bashing is getting a bit old.”
It just shows that people have a problem with reading comprehension. He actually followed up the Drabek post about calling him overrated with reasoning and still said that he thinks he is a very good young pitcher….just a guy that has some more risks compared to other prospects who are talked about as the elite pitching prospects in the game
What the scouts said about Taylor’s swing is insightful, they say he doesn’t use his lower half a lot in his swing (which is why they aren’t thrilled about his power potential)….but this is the exact problem Mauer addressed this year, unlocking his hips for more pull power.
Just because as of right now scouts are a little doubtful that the big man will hit for a ton of power, doesn’t mean he can make a little correction and put it together
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nowheels are you seriously trying to take credit for carpenter throwing 9 pitches in an exhibition and the calling up of a 23yr old guy who has been raking for 2 years?hardly Nostradamus level predictions
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about the scouts and klaw, its human nature to try to protect ones prior grades until absolutely proven wrong…these guys get paid to put grades on prospects , do you really think they are goin to admit being wrong until they absolutely have no choice?
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“If scouts feel that way about Drabek and Taylor thats not good”
Why is that not good? A scout projecting a guy as a #2 is still really high praise. #1 projections are extremely rare, and there are probably only a handful of guys who are talented and close enough to the bigs to get that distinction in a given year. A lot of All Star pitchers each year aren’t classified as “#1 starters”
And if the worst you are going to say about a guy is that he’s a solid regular, that’s at worst “damning with faint praise.” There are lot and lots of starting big league OFs who scouts label as “4th OFs”….ie, there aren’t necessarily 3 “solid regulars” playing on every team in the bigs right now
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does anyone know if kennelly is gonna play catcher or the outfield in reading? since the phils system (and the big club) is overflowing with outfielders, it seems to me he’d be much more valuable behind the plate.
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WHO CARES ABOUT KLAW!!!
He didn’t predict Utley or Howard either… No man can know all 30 teams worth of prospects, which is actually closer to about 150 teams with of prospects given all the levels. Taylor, just like any top prospect, has the potential to be an All Star at his position. Some players have a better chance of becoming that then others. At 23, and given Taylors consistancy over the last 2+ years, you have to believe he has as good a shot as any outfielder in recent memory to hit over .300 and ~20-30 Hr’s in the bigs, if that doesn’t get him one All Star game at some point in his career I’d be shocked.
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And for the record, this isn’t like Utley or Howard, each had glaring holes in their game that one would have suspected to keep them from being productive, can any one here name a single glaring hole in Taylors Game?
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BigB – are the people you know at reading constantly scouring the stands in search of any possible keith laws? i feel like its possible he might have slipped by…
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I just did a search for Kieth Law scouting reports and found out that the KLaw does interviews for many teams minor league fan sites.
The Nationals guy asked him why he hates the nationals, He said “I hate all teams with equal ferver”
“More on the gremlin known as keith law.
If you want to know how reviled Keith Law is in baseball, consider that he was kept off the 2007 ESPN draft coverage despite being their main prospect guy because teams complained.
We’re about two minutes away from ESPN hiring Goldstein anyway, as the rumor is they have major interest.
Someone once told me they could summarize Keith in one sentence. “He doesn’t get Arrested Development.”
I know scouts that actively feed Keith information that’s wrong just to watch him take credit for it.
Frankly, I don’t know what the obsession with Keith is. He’s not aterrible evaluator of talent, he just is a douche that no one likes.
That somehow got Lyndon Johnson to the presidency.”
I like people who tell you what they think even if you don’t like it. and I appreciate that KLaw post here.
But you also have to be careful about second hand info from a guy that a lot of people don’t like… they are easier to lie to than a good guy.
Any way if you want to read some funny stuff search for some of his stuff online.
We are not the only ones to not like what he has to say at times:)
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“I noticed the wolf pack that follows me around is no where to be found today. Yesterday they brought up Carpenter who followed with a poor man’s Bob Gibson performance at the allstar game and now Taylor goes up.”
No one was arguing that Taylor wasn’t having a great season – it’s more the constant questioning of why the FO hasn’t already promoted someone, as if a message board poster somehow knows more about the progress of a prospect than the people who are paid to evaluate these players.
If I have to read one more time that “prospect A has nothing else left to prove” (Joe Savery was yesterday’s example)…maybe nothing left to prove to YOU (for what that’s worth), but obviously the FO has the final word on such decisions.
And you don’t earn much credibility comparing Drew Carpenter to a poor man’s Bob Gibson.
Glad you feel some sort of vindication for Taylor getting the move to LHV…you called it!!!!! (sarcasm)
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let me guess tjc you didn’t see the game did you
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Everyone is purposing outlandish trade scenarios. 7 for 1 and the Phillies best prospects. That’s not going to happen. First of all the Blue Jays are hurting themselves by no allowing teams to negotiate with Halliday on contract extensions. This will limit the talent they receive for him. I see two, maybe three in return. Secondly Halliday is 32 years old and trading young stud pitchers for him who will be winning big when he’s no longer in baseball is going to happen. Thirdly, the Phillies aren’t nearly as desperate as to morgage their future away. Amaro is surrounded with very knowledgeable baseball minds who are looking ten years down the road.
We already know they want a shortstop so Jason Donald is certainly one of those being discussed. A quick look at their minor league system indicates they have several young pitchers who are showing talent. Is what the Phillies offering better? I see maybe a second tier pitcher, Carrasco/ Savery come to mind and maybe a catcher. That’s certainly enough for a year and a half of service.
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Would be nice to see Donald as the middle infield utility guy and Kennelly as the corners utility guy for the Phils next year. Better than Bruntlett. Don’t believe Kennelly is a major league backup catcher. He was the right fielder for the Western Australia team last winter that won the Claxton Shield national tournament there.
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I remember when John Sickels was with espn, and at that time he said Utley would hit enough to be valuable-15 homers a year, 80 rbi’s a year, but would never be an impact player.
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My main point was not to bash Klaw but to say how much oppinions can vary on a guy and thus make it very difficult to evaluate accuratly what a career will look like, or the value of any proposed trade. Another great example is from Jim Callis’s chat where the exact same offer was suggested and Callis said the phils should give it a second thought. Obviously people have different opionions, I think though people can mold there current opionions to match precoceived toughts with out taking a step back. Here is the Callis chat responce
Pete (Philly)
Would you trade Drabek, Brown, Marson and Donald for Halladay?
Jim Callis (2:50 PM)
If I could sign Halladay long-term, yes. That would position the Phillies as the team to beat in the NL East (and the whole NL for that matter) for a while. Without a long-term deal, I’d still have to think about it. I’d hate to give up all that young talent for 1 1/2 years of Halladay, but the deal would still give me a great chance to win another World Series in the next two years.
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There are very few minor league players that are projected number 1. That’s why you will see front of the rotation, instead of number 1. There are some exceptions to this of course(Strasburg), but for the most part they don’t dub anyone number 1.
If he becomes a number 1 it will because of developing his pitches, working batters, and having good control.
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Tuffy Gosewich is on the DL with a broken hand. Kennelly will likely do most of the catching there. That still leaves a spot on the roster. Kevin “Z” on CSN says Brown’s rehab should be over by Sunday.
I say move him to Reading when he’s done.
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Didn’t the bluejays GM call Keith Law an ” idiot ” ?
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KLaw an idiot?? nawwwwwww. lol
J.A. Happ is a fringe 5th starter-type. I think those guys may have more value to other clubs, particularly, say, the Padres, who value performance highly. ~ ESPN knucklehead Keith Law
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Darren Says
Didn’t the bluejays GM call Keith Law an ” idiot
Didn’t teh bluejays GM give out all these big contracts to bad ballplayers ? Sooooooooooooooo
We have an idiot calling an idiot an idiot. Say that five times.
Everyone wants to make huge trade I suggested this morning
Alberto Gonzalez of washington or someone like that to help out in the infield. If they won’t move on Marson ,they should do something in that area too.
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Taylor so far tonight.. 0-1.. looks like they rushed him 😉
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You know, I’m half way convinced that nowheels is a clever spoof – can anyone be THAT clueless? Sadly, probably so.
Nowheels, if they call up Taylor and Carpenter to the majors this year (before the rosters expand), and both players excel, you can claim that you were “right” in a meaningful sense. Of course that would make you about 3 for 100, still way below the Mendoza line.
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PO’d that anybody would use the word “fringe” abgout Happ. Right now he is the winningest pitcher on the staff (6-0) with the lowest era.
He should NOT be traded: giving up a starting pitcher WHO WINS for another pitcher to fill his place? Absurd. The idea is to fill out the staff, not end up still short.
Happ along with Blanton and Hamels form the first 3. Drabek & Carpenter the last two in 2010…Carpenter NOW to come up! The big fly in this ointment is Moyer. He needs to step down. When you go into a game knowing that you’ll need to score at least 6 runs to win, it’s a travesty. Send him to minor lg coaching, or whatever.
MY UNTOUCHABLES: Taylor, Drabek, Brown, Marson & Happ.
We have no other catcher ready to take over from Ruiz, a total loss offensively. Marson is now ready to familiarize himself with the staff. September callup should terminate his minor lg career.
Taylor and Brown will becomne 2/3 of an outstanding outfield! All-Stars for many years. Not worth trading…for Halladay or anybody!
Pedro plus Carpenter should be more than sufficient to win it all!
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i am starting to think that all of us (myself included) are looking at this hallady trade wrong.
toronto won’t want taylor (or brown for that matter) unless they get rid of wells. right now they have big contracts with rios and wells and they also have travis snider, who many believe is a better prospect than taylor is in the majors now.
as such, i believe that the key to a halladay trade is the inclusion of wells’ monster contract. the upside to us is that it won’t take nearly the prospects if someone takes that albetross off their hands. the phillies are freeing up a lot of money next year, and should be fine to take on both contracts, especially if they send jay werth back in the deal. if we take on wells, then i think that taylor is a gonner (along with marson and carasco).
without taking wells back, i don’t think that we match up with toronto – drabek + knapp + marson + donald + whatever just isn’t enough.
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Do you guys even know how good Roy Halladay is?
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FYI, two phillies in the DSL were suspended for PED use. Not uncommon in the DR where most MILB suspensions occur.
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From ESPN:
Joan Pascual and Phillies outfielder Jose Trinidad were penalized under baseball’s minor league drug program.
Last year, 42 of 69 suspensions announced under the minor league program involved DSL players.
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“Do you guys even know how good Roy Halladay is?”
Well, that’s less than half the problem. The bigger problem is that they overvalue our prospects. (“All-Stars for many years” etc.)
That said, in fairness, and setting aside some of the more … how can I say this kindly – … less well informed comments, it is indeed true that the price for Halladay will likely be high enough to give even knowledgeable fans pause.
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Even the owner of this site has said he would drive Drabek, Happ, Taylor, Marson, Donald and Knapp to the airport for Roy.
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PP fan:
Phils do have some money coming off the books, but they are also increasing the salaries of Hamels, Howard, etc. which will basically offset Thome/Jenkins/Eaton, etc. Forget Wells.
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I think Keith Law is quite intelligent. He tends to play it conservative on prospects which burns him sometimes, but it also means that when he praises a player, it carries more weight. A lot of writers tend to become mouthpieces on a team’s prospects. Law at least comes off objective most of the time.
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Yes alberto gonzalez is clearly the difference maker we need…Ruben shutdown the halladay talks, and get to work on the more important Albie Gonzalez please
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Yes Roy Halladay is good, but what are his post-season stats?? How can we be sure that he will be this good next year. If I was confident that the Phillies would/could sign him to an extension, I’d be all for the trade, however, I don’t think that will happen because the Phillies are on record preferring to sign pitchers to no more than 3 years. Therefore, I don’t see them signing Halladay and I also worry about resigning Hamels so I think they need to keep Drabek to replace Hamels. The Phillies/Halladay trade I do see happening is this time next year for Brown and Galvis.
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Would you really pass on a pitcher with four top 5 Cy Young finishes because he never pitched in the postseason? How can we be sure he’s good next year? Perhaps because he’s been good every year since 2001. No ace in baseball currently has been good as long as Halladay. If you can’t put faith in him, you can’t have faith in ANY pitcher in the game.
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There is absolutely no way the Phillies can afford to take Wells salary. Hes going to make more than 20M a year. The Phillies free up about $34M this winter with players coming off the books, but will have about $23M in salary raises and arbitration awards, not to mention adding Halladay’s $15.75M and then having to sign guys to fill the spots on the guys who are free agents. Wells is an average player, at best, signed to arguably the worst contract in the entire sport. Jayson Werth is a better all around player than Wells, and makes a fraction of his salary, and is only tied down for 1 year.
There is no way the Phillies can afford Wells, and there’s no way they SHOULD afford Wells. JP made his bed on that one. His best bet is to try and get a big pile of prospects for Halladay, trade Rios (who will bring something back) and then just build a roster around Wells, since no one is going to take that deal in a trade. If he demands someone take Wells, he’s going to be left holding the bag
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People are searching for any hole they can find to justify their ludicrous belief that he isn’t worth a few players who have no contributed in any way to the Majors yet.
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PP is right on this one.
Trading Wells along with Halladay is going to brutalize any value that Halladay would be worth. He’s already going to take a major PR hit on this one. Could you imagine how bad it would be if we gave up Donald and Marson for Halladay and Wells. I think a Toronto fan would have a heart attack.
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Barry Zito for Hamels and Utley… remember that one?
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I could cite Sabathia as exhibit A. A great regular season pitcher who hasn’t had much post-season success. I’m not trying to predict anything, but the point is even with someone like halladay, there are no guarantees. The bigger point is that teams that make the “big” acquisitions close to the trade deadline don’t have the playoff run that was guaranteed by the trade. Sabathia and Manny would be examples of that and if you look at the team that won the world series, they usually have made a small tweak like the Phillies did last year with Blanton and Stairs. This season, I’d rather see the addition of a good right-handed bat after the waiver deadline like Mike Sweeney
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Looking forward to seeing Taylor tomorrow night. He earned it. And, Kennelly earned his promotion too. The one thing that makes me wonder about this is what to do with Mayberry. If he continues his struggles, then where do they put him?
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Baseball Prospectus once called Chase Utley a borderline utility guy who would never play 2B in the majors and his bat wasn’t good enough for the outfield.
People get things wrong and there are lots of opinions on every prospects. Hell, BA and BP’s Top 100 lists are usually not even close to similar. Just as my Top 10 of the Phillies system would be different than James’ list or PP Fan’s or sig’s…
I really dont see a particular biased by KLaw solely towards the Phillies.
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BlueClaws down 12-2 have it at 12-11 right now…bot 8
http://ShoreSportsNetwork.com
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Blast by BG…14-11…ah darn.
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Congrats to Michael Taylor. I’m excited that he moved up to LHV but I’m kind of sad since I had plans to attend a Reading game with my gf. Maybe we’ll make a trip up to LHV instead when CC pitches.
I hope that he is not part of a deal for Halladay. I really respect Doc but I don’t think that the Blue Jays really need another high level OF prospect. The Phillies need to wow the Jays with pitching (Drabek, Carpenter, CC, etc) but the Jays have pitching depth. The Phillies do not have any infielders to send to the Jay so I can envision a 3 way deal that sends Taylor/Brown to another team that has highly regarded infield prospects.
Regardless I don’t think they’ll pull of the trade if its true that Ruben will not trade Drabek and that the Jays want major league ready players.
O and any reports on Kendrick’s pitches? Is he throwing his change up effectively?
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“Even the owner of this site has said he would drive Drabek, Happ, Taylor, Marson, Donald and Knapp to the airport for Roy.”
Well, even PP can be wrong. 🙂 And I don’t recall him putting it that strongly.
I don’t like Happ quite as much as some people here, but include him in the trade and the Phils still have a significant hole in the rotation. Moreover, let’s be conservative, assume Drabek will be a 2/3 and Happ a 4/5. Having a solid 2/3 and a solid 4/5 for several cost controlled years is huge. And they both could be better. Taylor is going to be a starter in this league, and could be a star. Marson will likely start in this league as well. Knapp is a long way away, though with a very high upside, and Donald is going to be a good back-up infielder.
Point is, even with this conservative evaluation, you’re giving up a lot – for a small increase in the chance of winning it all this year and next. Do you do that? You can make a case for it. OTOH, in 2011 Halladay will most likely be gone – along with, quite possibly, 2/5 of a good starting rotation and two solid or better every day players – who will collectively be paid almost nothing in 2011 and will be cost controlled well beyond then.
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No team is going to take on Well’s $100 million contract even if the Jays included Halladay for no prospects.
If the Jays need to move money, they have a better chance of forcing a team to take Rios and including some $$$ in the deal to offset his contract.
As for Mayberry, he needs to go back to AAA to get regular at-bats while the Phillies find a better RH bench player.
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While Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball today, he is in fact overvalued. His value to the Phillies is to lead them to winning the World Series. However, he does not in fact significantly increase their possibility of winning the World Series. The Phillies currently have about a 9.5% chance of winning the World Series while with Halladay they only increase it to 10.4%. This means that they are approximately 10 times more likely not to win the World Series with or without him.
To evaluate if the Phillies trade for Halladay comes down to “how much Halladay increases the Phillies chances to win the World Series this year and next”.
I have done a probability analysis as to his value in their chances over continuing with their current pitchers. This is essentially a (VOR) value over replacement player analysis.
I value Halladay’s pitching ability very highly and assumed with him over an entire regular season the Phillies will win at least 28 of the 32 games he starts. He would replace the current pitchers who’s record in the games they start at 18 wins and 14 loses. This means that Halladay would increase the number of games that the team would win over the entire season from 90 to 100. If the Phillies trade for him by July 31, he would account for 4 more win over the remaining 12 starts in 2009.
To evaluate the chances of winning the World Series, I assumed that the teams would continue to play at their current winning percentage. The Phillies are currently at a .558 percentage. I used their winning percentage to calculate the percentage of winning the first round of the playoff, the percentage of winning the National League Championship and the percentage of winning the World Series both with and without Halladay.
These results are without Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 50.9%
Winning the National League Championship 22.7%
Winning the World Series 9.5%
These results are with Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 53.4%
Winning the National League Championship 24.4%
Winning the World Series 10.4%
So with Halladay, he gives the Phillies less than a 1% increase in their chances of winning the World Series both this year and next. For this, the Phillies are willing to trade away talent that will give them the possibility that they will be good for 7 to 10 years and have a 8 to 9% chance in each of those years of winning a World Series. If the Phillies are smart they will not trade the boatload of talent to the Blue Jays for Halladay.
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The Wolfpack Says:
July 16, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Yes alberto gonzalez is clearly the difference maker we need…Ruben shutdown the halladay talks, and get to work on the more important Albie Gonzalez please
what is your point aside from being an —– That Ruben can’t do two things at once. Why not use YOUR name next time
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That’s nice analysis, but its faulty to a degree.
The allure of adding Halladay is for the playoffs, not the rest of the regular season. Sure, he’ll be important for those games as well, but the goal is to have Hamels and Halladay start 4 of the potential 5 games in a short series, and 4-5 games of a potential 7 game series.
The playoffs are different from the regular season for a few obvious reasons. The fringe guys in the bullpen become less important in the playoffs because of off days. You’re able to use Madson, Lidge, and Romero every game because you play, at most, 3 games in a row, but its normally only 2. Also, because of the off days, there is no 5th starter in the playoffs, and you generally only need 1 start from your #3 and maybe 1 from your #4. The playoffs is where a guy like Halladay becomes a trump card.
Those percentages are mathematically correct, but they don’t take a lot of things into account. The Phillies have had a hard on for Halladay for a long time. I have to think they’re going to be willing to part with quite a bit to get him. I suspect they will draw the line and not just give JP a blank check. But you can’t minimize the importance of a stud starter in a short playoff series. Winning the World Series is a crapshoot. But you want to arm yourself with the best weapons possible, within reason.
If the Phillies add Halladay and a legit bench bat (Willingham type of hitter, RH), they are as good as any team in the NL, and will again have a great chance against any team they come up against.
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That’s a lot of work Nepa but there is some problems with you analysis, not so much with the regular season win total but rather how he affects the Playoff rotation.
You cannot use a teams winning % for determining playoff success since each team’s #4/5 starters are not part of the playoff rotation. So the fact the the Dodgers have a deeper rotation and therefore have a higher winning % is meaningless when comparing each teams top 3 starters.
That is why in a series, the SF Giants are a more dangerous opponent because their top-3 is better than the Dodgers top 3. With Halladay, a 3-man rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton becomes just as dangerous.
Of course Halladay doesn’t guarantee a WS win, but he greatly increases the chances…
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Asa ballpark estimate, say that Halladay would double the chances of winning the series, from, say, 10% to 20%. While I frankly pull those numbers out of my butt, I’d guess that they are closer to the truth than the numbers that NEPA comes up with.
But do you give up the kind of package it would take to get Hallady for that? I don’t think the answer is obvious.
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I’ve read that post of Nepp’s somewhere else.
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Anybody think we could get Mark Teheran? He could be a very good bat off the bench. I’m not sure what he would cost, but he would be a nice addition.
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How about Julio Lugo or David Eckstein? Both are available, pretty cheap and can hit of decent average. Both are RH as well. Its not an OF bat but it would be a HUGE upgrade on Bruntlett.
****I’ve read that post of Nepp’s somewhere else.****
NEPA isn’t me.
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It was under friday discussion items a few days ago. It was a lot of work but agreed that everything is dif. during playoffs regarding starting pitching. The teams w/ the 2 best pitchers often go very far if they also have a little offense. If the giants make it to the playoffs they will be tough to beat especially in the 1st round.
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1. What is with the hate on Klaw? As some have mentioned, he speaks his mind! There’s great value in that. People in his line of work make their money by getting people to read what they write and listen to what they say. I’d say in a very unscientific way this website has shown people prefer to hear positive feedback on their team’s prospects. Therefore he is essentially devaluing himself. Subscriptions and such are sold to happy people that like what they read. His blunt assessments might make people less likely to read him.
Furthermore, he probably hasn’t seen Drabek and Taylor much, but who has? Scouts! If he has good contacts that give him a variety of opinions I find that to be more valuable then one person’s opinion. He was a FO guy, that’s how they make decisions. No one sees every player in a system.
2. There is little value in comparing what different pitchers were traded for in prior years. The baseball trade market is an excellent version of a completely free market. A team will pay a price based on demand. If ten teams are vying for one player’s services, that will set the market. There will likely be an auction based format and whatever team offers the highest price will get the player. That could cost an arm and a leg, but when demand outstrips supply so drastically the price skyrockets, and the supply of legit aces is currently ONE.
3. Finally, the Jays don’t have to trade Halladay. They have a nice complement of young pitching and some decent position players. Their rotation was rocked by injury this year. They could very well load up and take a run next year with Halladay. JP’s opinion though seems to be that they’d be better off with a few more young ML caliber players with which to make an extended run at an extremely difficult division. He intends to do so by trading Halladay, but he doesn’t have to. Don’t assume Amaro can offer him Marson, Donald and Carrasaco and expect him to be happy for the opportunity to do business with the WFCs. Don’t turn into Yankee fans.
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I agree the Wells contract is a disaster and the Phillies would be wise to avoid it like the plague. Still, if by some miracle JP Ricciardi were to offer Halladay and Wells for Werth and Carrasco and two fringe prospects I hope we would accept.
I don’t expect it, though. For JP it’s a tough sell to the fans and for us it’s a huge financial commitment. Still, it comes down to the money vs. the prospects and it makes sense to pay to keep 9 out of 10 of our best prospects along with two shots at another parade.
Our top prospects are worth the money — in other words at least two of them will have a high field value while collecting low salaries — and Wells would fit right in. Sure, Wells is overpaid but unlike Adam Eaton you can at least expect a decent return on the field, certainly comparable to Werth.
It really comes down to projections. How big of a raise will Werth be getting over the same period? Would we really be able to afford to extend Halladay anyway? Can Drabek, Taylor, Brown, Marson, Knapp and the rest of our top 10 prospects return to the field what Wells would take from the payroll? I think 2 of our top 10 will blossom into stars-at-a-bargain over the length of the Wells contract so it’s something to think about. An outfield of Wells, Taylor and Brown might look as good on the books as it does on the field.
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Jayson Werth: .263/.371/.513 – 20 HR – 12 SB
Vernon Wells: .263/.312/.411 – 9 HR – 13 SB
A lot of the value you get in Halladay will be erased by playing Wells over Werth. He’s half the offensive player.
I want no part of Wells. Unless Toronto is picking up 3/4 of his salary for the life of the deal and we don’t trade any of our top 5-6 prospects, and we get Halladay. Sound ridiculous? It is. Just as ridiculous as someone being willing to take that deal.
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I want them to get Garrett Atkins. I keep reading the Rox can’t give him away. He’d help us a lot. He can play 3rd, LF and would be a huge upgrade as a RHB off the bench.
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It isn’t ridiculous. I think Toronto knows that which is why they aren’t trying to package Wells and Halladay. They know they will get nothing back if they do.
Sorry Nepp.
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Mark Teahan I think that’s who you meant, is useless for the Phils. He’s another left handed guy off the bench, with Dobbs/Stairs already here we have no room for him.
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If the Phillies are confident they can keep Halladay in Philadelphia past 2010, then I think the deal is worth pretty much any package of minor leaguers they could put together (although in that case, they should exclude Happ). If not, I would be very hesitant to give away Drabek. However, I would think that a year and a half of Halladay would be worth Happ, Carrasco, Donald, and Taylor.
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My bad B. I thought for sure he was a righty. I totally agree with you though that he is useless for the Phils now that I know he’s a lefty.
By the way it’s actually Teahen lol.
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My bad on the spelling, didn’t feel like looking it up. Yeah he throws right handed, but hits left handed.
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Things change, don’t they? Two years ago Wells was a star and Werth a fourth outfielder and now Wells isn’t half as good. I’m a big Werth fan and I wouldn’t trade them straight up even if they had the same salary. But the difference between Werth and Wells is not as great as the difference between Roy Halladay and any other starter we can acquire.
Halladay would be the real difference maker in the playoffs, not Werth over Wells, and to have him for 2 post-seasons would be huge. Taking on Wells would allow us to buy back our prospects, which isn’t a bad thing. I can easily live with the difference between Werth and Wells considering we’d get Halladay and keep our future intact.
So you don’t think either JP or Ruben would make that deal? I think it’s fair.
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I have only commented one other time on this site, but have been reading for over a year.
First, I would like to commend PhuturePhillies and other contributors for a fantastic site that obviously requires great amounts of time and other resources.
I live in the SF Bay area, grew up in Philly area and have followed the Phillies religiously since the days of Ashburn and Roberts. I know nothing about how good Taylor/Brown/Drabek et al. are other than what I read here, so I can’t and don’t comment on that.
However, I also teach some statistics type courses at the university level. The one thing that any good statistician will tell you is don’t take them too seriously when created after the fact, i.e. without a “future” predicton hyposthesis (a priori).
I believe the addition of a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber adds a non-statistical factor: whatever you want to call it, adjustment of pitching match-ups or line-ups, intimidation, etc.
Living in the Bay Area, Giants fans are chomping at the bit. They like their chances in short series with Lincecum (arguably best in NL) and Cain (arguably in top 5 or 10, easily number 1 on many teams and probably on my beloved Phillies).
Thanks for listening.
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xfactor have you seen Wells contract? He makes 20+ million for 3 or 4 more years.
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I think I left my point implicit.
Halladay/Hamels v. Linceum/Cain could be argued favoring either team.
Hamels/Blanton, Hamels/Moyer, Hamels/Happ v. Lincecum/Cain heavily favors the Giants.
No trade should be looked at with one team in mind, especially one in another division. However, right now the Giants are likely Phillies opponents in the NLDS.
I’d go for Halladay.
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B –
Yes, I have seen Wells’ contract, it’s enormous. But look at the salaries of young stars in their first 4 or 5 years and they return so much more value to the field than their paychecks cost. Salary numbers are always skewed, you don’t always get what you pay for but likewise you don’t always pay for what you get.
You have to find a balance but the focus should be on creating mismatches in the rotation in favor of all else. Build a true Big Three. That’s where you get the bang for your buck. And paying Wells is really just another way of paying Halladay if that’s what it takes to get him. Reverse their contracts and it makes a little more sense but you’d still be paying the same amount and getting the same players.
At the end of the Wells contract he will be 36 and still overpaid but you might have Taylor and Brown alongside him and Drabek on the mound, all on the cheap during the life of the deal. And in the meantime you’d be NL favorites for 2 post-seasons with Hamels and Halladay.
Because there is almost always a discrepancy between field value (performance) and salary, individual salaries matter less than average salary. And the best way to take advantage of that is controlling the best young players during their first 5 years. Paying Wells to keep our prospects makes sense in that light, not to mention, ahem, Roy Halladay.
The risk is that Halladay gets injured and less than 2 of the prospects we keep ever puts up stats that offset Wells’ salary.
Another risk is that we have to let our other stars go because we can’t afford them but that’s truly a problem either way. At least in this scenario there are prospects left to promote.
The final risk is that Vernon Wells doesn’t pick up the rookies tabs at dinner.
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No way you take on a massive contract like wells has period!! Its halladay and nothing else. I wonder if the asking price is going up or down as we get closer to the trading deadline in this case? Is there a possibility that rube starts to replace some of the top tier prospects with the 2nd tier or decrease the amt of players being offered, my reasoning is that toronto needs to start shedding salary and get younger and refusing teams to negotiate with halladay for an extension. But i would still drive drabek to the airport even though im in southern cali.
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xfactor
One thing you and others omitted. The effect of having Wells
sitting on the bench and making 20mil to do so. If Halladay
were to be injured or ineffective(dont think so). The resentment would be even worse.
The only way Wells works is like PP says .they eat 75% then we eat some of the remainder and trade him. Ed Wade used to love picking up guys for a bargain price even if the couldn’t
play.
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ml stats are fine sometimes,i would say that last year tampa,s staff was rated higher than the phils. defying one of the oldest cliches in bb, and its a cliche that generally is true, the phillies will like last year and certain other teams of the past, hit tyheir way to a w,s. they have one of the most potent lineups in bb history with average pitching and great defense produce a champion. however keep up the good criteria it,s interesting.
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btw. flande had another bad outing. taylor 0-3
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RAAUULLLL is back and everyone can relax. The lineup has hit critical mass. Actually this ups Rubens hand especially if they win 2 of the next 3.
This might be the time to rest or skip a turn for some of the
young pitchers who have put in a lot of innings. It has worked before and no need for injuries.
It would be great to see Lehigh be a .500 club. Maybe Taylor will help. The people deserve more than they got last year.
Out of line,sorry venting.
Watch Ruiz’s hand they almost
never get back,or he is starting back while the pitch is in the air(with moving the bat head), never the same swing
twice like Pat when he was going bad. It is impossible for him to hit like that. resorry Its just hard to watch
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I wonder if Wells contract is in Canadian $. If it is and we strengthen the dollar, it might cost us a lot less. Exchange rate is .89 right now. If it goes back to .60 or .65, then it’s not such a bad contract.
I’m kidding of course but what is the adjustment for people playing in Toronto? Are all contracts valued in US currency and then when paid in Canada, grossed up?
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From the Inky:
“Looper (assistant GM Benny Looper) allowed that the organization considered waiting to promote Taylor until top prospect Dominic Brown, 21, also an outfielder, was ready for promotion from high-Class A Clearwater to Reading. But Brown broke a finger in June and missed a month. He resumed play yesterday for the Rookie League Gulf Coast Phillies, but he won’t be ready for any promotion any time soon.”
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just heard that the probable package the jays want for halliday is drabek,knapp,taylor or brown, and marson on espn. the grey-haired guy from boston was talking to the other boston-ny schill from vermont. somebody on the radio also said s.f. was offering 2 pitchers,not lincecum or cain, on their roster, bumgardner and the guy they drafted this year for halliday and rios,oh yeah buster posey too. supposedly the phils are really divided over halliday vs. the farm. money is no object,though. obviously the guys im talking about are gammons who says the phils are the probable team and olney who im sure is dreaming of the yanks and sox. the s.f talk was from some guy on the radio who said he heard it on wfan.
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If they traded Drabek, Knapp, Taylor/Brown and Marson, i better read in the paper the following day, “Phillies sign Brody Colvin”.
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Most of what has gone on before, Bunk! Halladay wins analysis, off!
Since this is minor league oriented and daily discussion, like to give kudos to Siulman Lebron. 7 Innings pitched, 15 Ground Ball Outs , 2 Fly Ball Outs (4 K). Only been pitching couple of years, former Short Stop, so should be a fielder at position, Also has picked off some, and has a potential for getting groundballs , and seems to have above average sucess against Right Handed Hitters. Looks like he could have some potential for moving up.
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PP, I agree completely on the Wells/Werth. Fangraphs has Werth’s UZR at 3.2 and Wells at -21.3, so Werth is a signifcantly better fielder. In fact Werth has the highest UZR in the NL over the last three years. If Toronto wants to dump OF money, the only piece they could move is Rios, who might be overpaid but has more value.
On Michael Taylor, ESPN 950 had a nice interview with him this week, which I haven’t seen posted yet. Can be found here: http://950espn.com/Audio/tabid/183/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4149/Michael-Taylor.aspx. They also interviewed Doug Drabek (http://950espn.com/Audio/tabid/183/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4155/Former-MLB-Pitcher-Doug-Drabek.aspx). You can’t help but be impressed with Taylor in the interview. He also mentions how Drabek has on of the top 3-4 arms he’s ever seen (and Taylor was teammates in HS with Zack Geinke).
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John, what you heard on ESPN2 – both for the Phillies and the Giants – was just pure speculation by Peter Gammons with no real facts/insights behind it…though it was much more interesting than the typical “Jock & Nerd argue over something they agree on” schtick.
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Andrew, I’m in complete agreement. one quibble is that Wells plays CF and Werth plays RF. I bet Werth’s UZR would dip if he had to play CF.
And is it Taylor that said Drabek’s is one of the best 3-4 arms he’s seen, or is it someone else who said that? If it was Taylor who said that, you have to keep in mind the sample of pitchers he’s drawing from…no AAA or MLB.
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For the type of package that has been talked about I would rather keep Marson, Taylor, and Donald and make up a
great package of Drabek, Carpenter, Savery and four or five top prospects from the A ball ,throw in some money and get Geinke. He is right up there with Halladay but much younger.
He is already about 4mil and KC. has had money problems.
I don’t know if this can get done. Nice dream anyway.
Marfis
I am with you but the last Lebron we had didn’t do too well.
Is it very unusual for a youngster to be that ground ball able.
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This move with Taylor seems an awful lot like someone (scouts) wants to see him get some ab’s off of AAA pitching. Maybe they want to see how close he is to ML readiness. Not that he is not ready for the jump to AAA, he is. He was the ONLY player in the EL in the top 4 in all triple crown categories – as well as being in the top 5 in seven other offensive categories. If they voted for the EL MVP right now, he’d probably win.
But, big clubs usually leave playoff-hunt teams intact, to see how they gel and play as a team. The RPhils are in 2nd place in their division and look like a playoff team.
Don’t let the 0fer last night worry anybody. I’ve worked for the RPhils for 10 years and have been going there for 37 years and I have not seen anyone hit the ball harder than Taylor. He is fun to watch and is a good kid to boot.
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The last Lebton was a 14 year old SS who grew into a Baby Huey physique. That was awhile back.
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BostonPhan: Werths UZR is better in CF than it is in the corner OF positions.
UZR is kinda fallible though, so take that for what its worth
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Marfis
1. Surprised you remembered. good job
The farm system is yielding so much I am getting confused
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KC isn’t trading Greinke, and if they did the price for him would likely be MORE than Halladay given his contractual status. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has the second highest trade vale of any player in the majors, considering talent and contract status.
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just to be clear – i never said that i wanted wells’ contract, just that taking it back is the only way we get a deal done. otherwise, we don’t match up with them. why whould they want taylor or brown if we don’t take wells (or rios)? if you think that taylor is blocked in our outfield, toronto’s is worse. and i don’t think that we have the players to get him without including taylor/brown.
also, i think that you have to look at wells’s career stats vs. just this year when comparing him to werth. his career ba is 20 points higher over a very large sample. this year his k rate is lower than career average and his walk rate is higher. his babip is 15 points lower than his career average. and his ISO is 45 points lower than his career average. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1326&position=OF
NEPA Philly – taking your analysis for fact (a stretch, but let’s just say so for now), it is incomplete unless you compare it to every other team out there. it is faulty to conclude that the phils only have a 10.4% chance to win so they shouldn’t do it if their chances relative to any other single team has increased to the point that it is statistically relevant, i.e. outside the margin of error and also puts them as the leading candidate.
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Wouldn’t you pay the price as long as you are going after
someone.
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Taylor said on that interview that the AAA move was planned
long ago but was delayed by Brown’s injury.
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John if the jays will take that package. I would do it now. I Love drabek potential but halladay is already a ace.
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Can I just say something about Vernon Wells. No one is taking him. Halladay and Vernon Wells would only get one fringe prospect to make it look like a trade and only the yankees or boston could ever conceive doing such a move.
Its not monopoly money people. If you take vernon wells it means you cant sign 2 stud players. Do you really want 1/6 of you payroll being Vernon Wells?
Secondly people need to remember John Lackey and a couple other pitchers are Free agents this year and the Yankees already binged this season on Free Agents and Boston is loaded with Pitching so this could be Best Season to Offer a pitcher a contract.
So when people are thinking about offer deals for Roy Halladay involving Drabek, Brown, Marson, and Donald remember to match that up with Signing John Lackey for Similar money and only losing draft picks and having to wait until this offseason instead of getting it done now.
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Law has never seen the ball come off of Taylor’s bat if he thinks Taylor lacks power. He may not be a 50 HR hitter but once he’s playing full time he should be able to go for at least 35. Even his outs are usually pretty impressive.
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The Phillies could absolutely make a deal with the Jays for Halladay, without needed to bring in Wells. That’s bunk.
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Here’s some roster notes.
I see on the Reading Phillies roster they list Kennelly as 6’0 199 , in lieu of his usual 6’0 180. So if he , indeed, has added on some muscle, in addition to continuing his advances in hitting prowess, he may then likely be more of a candidate as an occasional part-time, fill-in , back-up, catcher.
Found another apparent egregious roster mistake. It concerns recent draftee, College signee, Out Fielder, Michael Dabba. When drafted they listed him as Throws Left-Bats Right. When first posted on Roster was made Throws Right-Bats Left. Then, somehow, it was changed back to Throws Left-Bats Right. Now, I see,in the pictures of draftees on http://www.philly.com that he is shown standing in a Left-Handed Batting Stance, and actually Batting Left Handed. Perhaps someday, when they somebody to put those rosters together, they will get somebody who cares to get it right, or, if they do happen to know the right thing to go there, they will look to put the right information in the right column or spot.
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Dabbs, that is .
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Bedrosian’s Beard – if that is bunk, then who would they give up. and you can’t include brown or taylor, because Toronto won’t need either of those guys if they keep wells and rios. you really think that drabek, happ, marson, donald and knapp gets it done? i don’t. what else do the have of value without taylor/brown?
also, i can’t take credit for thinking that toronto is insisting that wells is a part of the deal. espn.com is the one pushing that. i just happen to agree with them. trading halladay is basically like starting over, and there is no need to keep wells when you are starting over.
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tjc i realize that what i heard was speculation but at least in gammons case, who i do like, you,d think there was some basis behind the speculation. i like what the phils are now doing, pulling back a bit a great negotiation strategy. and the consenus from gammons,stark,and olney was halliday will wind up a phillie. i honestly cant see anyone seriously involved offering more than drabek,brown/taylor,knapp,and marson. and this according to the talking heads boston,ny,are out, cubs,dodgers not enough prospects, or money, st. louie will not part with rasmus, so it seems at least to the so-called experts that philly, rangers,and angels are the real players, with philly in the lead. of course how many times have you heard any of these rumours to happen. imo the rangers are out due to money so its the phils and angels with halliday becoming a phil for drabek,knapp,taylor fwitw.
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“Even the owner of this site has said he would drive Drabek, Happ, Taylor, Marson, Donald and Knapp to the airport for Roy.” (btw, I don’t remember pp being quite that generous)
So, in order to upgrade from Happ to Halladay for 1.5 years, and to downgrade from Happ to nobody for 3 more years, you’re willing to pay 2 of your top three prospects (who are both in the top 50 overall in baseball), the best or second best catching prospect in AAA in baseball, a useful SS prospect, and a guy who is raw but throws 98 mph?
That’s an insane overpayment, the kind that puts a team in the second division for years. IMHO, of course.
And I don’t understand people posting on a minor league site who believe that a major leaguer, even a great one like Halladay, is worth any number of top rated minor league prospects because, of course, prospects “haven’t done anything in the big leagues.” That shows a fundamental misunderstanding on two levels: first, even the best major leaguers aren’t worth more than 4 or 5 net games won with respect to a replacement level player, and, second, minor league performance is projectable to the big leagues (which it clearly is, and which has been known since Bill James).
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“BostonPhan: Werths UZR is better in CF than it is in the corner OF positions.
UZR is kinda fallible though, so take that for what its worth”
He has had a tiny sample size of chances in CF the last two years. I think he is fast enough to be an adequate CF but can’t imagine he’d be a better full time defender in CF than he would in RF
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“minor league performance is projectable to the big leagues (which it clearly is, and which has been known since Bill James”
I agree with most of your post, but a quibble here. You are, of course, correct, but that doesn’t mean what many (most?) people on this site thinks it means. Firstly, projectable does not mean on a one for one basis. .340, 20 HR in AA does not mean .340, 20 HR in the majors. Secondly, the lower down you go in the system, the shakier such projections are. Thirdly, you need to factor injury risk into the equation, especially for pitchers. Forth, age differences have a bigger impact on such projections than many people think.
I love Drabek as a prospect, but his numbers, properly projected, aren’t quite as awesome as some people here seem to think. I’m inclined to take seriously the KLaw statement that he projects more as a 2 or 3 than a 1 (I do think his comments regarding Taylor were a bit harsh).
Finally, I would, reluctantly, do the Halladay deal that you are commenting on if you take Happ out of the deal. But it is indeed a high price to pay.
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Larry,
Of course you have to adjust for level, and park and league effects, too. No one expects Michael Taylor to immediately step in with the Phils and hit .350 (though, of course, he might do that sometime in the future).
The risk equation for pitchers cuts both ways, though. Halladay could get hurt, and, actually, looks like he’s throwing with a sore arm (since the DL stint for his groin) to me.
And the injury/suspension/mishap risk is higher when it’s all concentrated in one player, rather then distributed over six guys.
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Let’s take a look at all the irrational things that have been attributed to the Toronto GM. He signs two outfielders to ridiculous contracts making them virtually untradable. He says that he won’t take calls about Halladay until the trade deadline, July 31. He won’t allow anyone interested in Halladay to talk contract extension, thereby reducing his trade value. Despite all the speculation, who knows if this guy has any intention of trading Halladay or what he wants for himl. It would seem that he would be ont hin ice and would need players that would help him win soon, but his behavior is so unpredictable that it is impossible to be sure. It is surprising that he is still running the team, but probably the people in Toronto are devoting most of their attention to hockey, as usual.
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PP Fan:
Just b/c they don’t NEED Taylor or Brown right now, doesn’t mean they won’t want to acquire either in a trade. They are both potential stud OFers and top prospects, the Jays could always flip one in a deal or have one of them on stand by for when they finally do move Rios or Wells. Total bunk.
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I actually think not allowing teams to talk contract increases Hallday’s trade value. Only a handful of teams can afford to pay him 100+ million, but several could afford his next 1.5 years salary
Look at the Johan deal….best pitcher dealt in recent memory, and the Twins got an unspectacular haul because his looming contract greatly limited trade suitors
Bedard/Tex/Haren though…..no extension necessary/involved in those deals, and far better prospect hauls
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And I don’t think Happ, Drabek, Knapp, Marson and Donald is all that bad of a deal.
*One young, cheap major league pitcher who has had some success.
*One stud #1 or #2 pitching prospect who is very close to being ready.
*One top 50 prospect who leads the minors in K’s.
*One (near) ML ready catcher who can hit the ball.
8One (near-injured) ML ready utililtyish guy who scouts are divided on as whether he’s a “utility guy” or could be every day SS.
I have no idea if JP would take that and either do you.
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Bedrosian I think that is a legitimate offer. Whether or not they would take it I don’t know. I would actually rather give up Taylor than 3 of our top 4 pitching prospects….if they could hold onto Knapp or Happ (assuming Drabek is a must in the deal) I think it would be smarter to do that given their projected needs in the starting rotation the next two years vs their OF vacancies
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It would be tough enough giving up one of Drabek or Knapp let alone both of them. I’m sure we can do a deal that doesn’t include both young hurlers.
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i find the idea of a taylor/brown deal with possibly marson/donald for buckholtz nagging at me. i dont know why just a feeling. weve been so fixated on halliday that were ignoring something else could realistically be brewing. btw i happen to think halliday is a bit overated. not a lot but a bit. people seem to be putting him in the seaver, palmer categorie which he definately is not. personally i think haren is better. i would rank him in my top 5-10. just an opinion.
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my comment from another thread that died.
Hey john, i thought of the same gut a few days ago for the exact 2 people because they have expressed interest in both this year. they scoffed @ donald for buck. but the 2 might get it done (Marson and donald). I’d even include carpenter as well if we could get him. The only problem is that he is more of a future helper and doesn’t have much playoff exp. He is MLB ready right now though the sox just don’t have any room right now. I would still love to do this trade! Also what about hughes of the yanks with a sim. upside and even younger but no room @ the inn either.
I think your proposal for buck is way too much for a fellow minor leaguer. Taylor straight up would be sufficient but w/ prefer the above trade. I do like buck though!
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Is Halladay really a power pitcher? Because that’s what wins World Series. Greats like Schilling would take Halladay to school in the playoffs.
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buck is of course buckholtz. And i would be more than happy to get haren for more years i think
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marky its funny but i really thought of the exact deal of hughes for brown, but didnt bring it up. i guess all great minds think alike.
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Don’t laugh, but . . . . I would be intrigued by a deal where the Phils gave up Bastardo, Carrasco and Marson for Homer Bailey. The Homer Bailey I saw last week was a completely different guy than the one I saw a few years ago. He has incredible movement on his breaking pitches and has great velocity and movement on the FB (mid-90s) – he can throw that pitch up in the zone as a strikeout pitch. If we make this trade, we give the Reds (who won’t make the playoffs) more than fair value and we don’t lose our best prospects. If we have him and Pedro plugged in at the end of the rotation, it gives us depth and little risk AND it gives us added depth and growth for the future. It’s this type of move that really intrigues me and, yes, a similar move for Buck would also be interesting.
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I like baily more than i did a few years ago when he was considered the next great one and would like him also but i think he is a big part of the reds rotation, plan and young team, where the sox and yanks don’t have room. Intriguing though if we didn’t have to overpay.
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I think if we gave up brown, drabek, carrasco, carpenter for halladay, then savery, marson, donald, for buckholtz we not be totally mortgaging the future.
Halladay
hammels
blanton
happ
moyer
with buckholtz, worley, stutes, bastardo, escalona, flande, kendrick, knapp,, way, shreve , cosart etc. plus D’arnaud, galvis, valle, hewitt, taylor, mayberry, gose dugan and collier as replacement parts for several years. not to mention to picks for halladay if he does leave.
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I think the Red Sox value Buchholz over Drabek, and since all these proposals are basically just 75 cents on the dollar prospect offers I don’t see them having any interest.
The equivalent from the Phils perspective would be a team saying “I wonder if I can get Drabek, who would become our #1 prospect, for our #3, 8 and 10 prospects, none of whom would help the Phils big club right away.”
Buchholz is up in the majors now too. I don’t see him being moved unless it’s in a blockbuster deal for a controllable star big leaguer like a Halladay, V Martinez, A Gonzalez
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Buchholz is the guy who they, someday, want to replace Beckett. I like him a lot, but I doubt they’ll trade him. They’re the clear favorites without Halladay and whoever else is out there – why should they blink first?
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i don’t know which statement is more ridiculous:
** Just b/c they don’t NEED Taylor or Brown right now, doesn’t mean they won’t want to acquire either in a trade**
– do you really think that a GM is going to trade one of the top pitchers in the game for a package, the center piece of which has a blocked path for the next few years?
** I think if we gave up brown, drabek, carrasco, carpenter for halladay, then savery, marson, donald, for buckholtz**
– i mean…where do you start with this one?
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AB marson and donald were mentioned because these are 2 guys they have shown interest in and who fill a need. I agree we would be getting the better of that deal but the sox would get a starting C, at the least a craig counsel type infielder and a solid controllable #5. The phils would get a 2/3. The sox are very deep in pitching but have some other studs on the farm and buck will be 25 next year. Still doubt they would pull the trigger. They would for what john suggested above (including taylor), would anyone do this trade? This would hurt and he’s still a little bit of an unknown to be giving up this much for but buck will be solid!
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They wouldn’t be getting a starting anyone in that deal on THIS current team marky mark. Varitek is the starting SS and Green/Lowrie would play SS. Donald is still hurt as well. Savery would not be in the top 10 Sox prospects and would be a disaster in the AL East with his mediocre Ks and high walks
You are talking about Sox #1 prospect (not in a strict definition, but still) for the Phils’ 6th, 8th, and 10th or so prospect IMO….none of which are going to play for the Sox right away
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Meant catcher above for Varitek obviously
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Wow sox cut lugo! bye bye bruntlett!!! This could be our righty off the bench we’ve been looking for. he’s batting .284 in 109 ab’s. lets get him!
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A few comments and major disagreements with commenters on the Halladay trade.
First, it is incorrect to call Halladay the best pitcher in baseball. The best pitcher in baseball is the pitcher who is actually pitching the best, not the guy whose past several seasons were the best. This is not a baseball card contest and past performance is not a guide to the next 1.5 years. A lot of pitchers were the best or near best in baseball, until they weren’t, either by age or overwork or just injury. The Cubs have seen a lot of young near the best in baseball pitchers fall by the wayside.
Second, I cringe as posters denigrate prospects as players who have yet to make a contribution in the majors. That is a description that at one time applied to every player in baseball, including every HOF. Some make it big, some make it average, some don’t make it. If we had traded Utley and Howard when they were just prospects and because their performance was criticized by some, we basically wouldn’t have a contending team.
Third, Halladay is showing signs of being hurt.
Fourth, if you are making the trade for the post-season, it just isn’t worth it. Most of the teams making these big deals don’t win the WS. To trade many years of post-season play for a bigger chance to win it all this year just isn’t a good trade. Teams are driven by cash flow. This trade doesn’t help ours now and robs of cheap players over the next near decade.
Fifth, The denigration of Happ has reached the ludicrous stage. I don’t care what his ultimate talent level is, he is pitching superbly. No reason to suspect he suddenly turns into Cinderella at midnight, every reason to expect him to finish the season strong.
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Nobody is denigrating Happ. Quit with the Hyperbole.
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good post allentown. i think the imagined deal for buckholtz got twisted. brown is the number 2 of prospect in ba. taylor is number 4. either one with maybe a marson should get buckholtz. buckholtz hasnt been in their rotation why? he looks great but taylor or brown are everybit as impressive ( and the list of guys who have thrown no-hiters is pretty long with mediocres). same thing with marky,s mention of taylor/brown for hughes. can you imagine an outfield of brown jackson. possible shades of days gone by for the yanks. especially brpwn with the homer porch in right.
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hey PPgenius, i don’t know where to start or which statement is more ridiculous the fact that you think basicaly 3 top 30 prospects and a MLB ready cheap #5 isn’t enough for 1 1/2 years of a #1 on a team looking to reduce payroll or the fact that you think you know that much more than amaro who offered donald for buckholtz when the sox inquired about donald. Varitek may have one more year in him and will need to sit 40 games next year, lowrie is a 26 year old who has fallen out of favor and is in the minors i believe and green is a journeyman who will be 31 next year. The sox really like donald and marson and savery was a throw in who has higher value now than he probably will in the future and might sweeten the pot w/o hurting us too much.
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I like Happ but check out his FIP it’s 4.66, he’s more of a 4.00 – 4.40 ERA pitcher in my mind than a 3.00 – 3.50 guy. I think he’s going to have some struggles at some point in the second half.
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Marky mark,
Lowrie hasn’t fallen out of favor. He has been on the DL after having wrist surgery and was sent to the minors to begin rehabbing.. At this point, he is a better overall prospect as Donald which is why the RedSox will have little interest in a Buckholtz for Donald/Marson deal..
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marky mark – you have been hanging out with the funky bunch too much if you think that we can get bucholtz for donald and marson. you are talking about one of the best pitching prospects in the game. they are not trading him for marson and donald.
and your other trade isn’t enough. no mlb ready players isn’t going to get it done. and prospects like carpenter are a dime a dozen. no value creation there. carasco’s value is probably at a 2 year low right now and drabek and brown aren’t enough to get it done.
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“Third, Halladay is showing signs of being hurt.”
I cringe at claims of injury with nothing backing them up. Exactly what signs is Halladay showing that he is hurt? He missed a couple of weeks with a groin strain but has returned to make 3 starts against a couple of pretty good teams in the Rays (Twice) and the Yankees.
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I realize lowrie was hurt, but reports a few mths ago said he had fallen out of favor. this would make sense since the openly inquired about donald. If they were happy with his .245 batting avg w/ 2 hr’s over 278 at bats they wouldn’t have inquired. We always talk about trading surplus for positions of need for the phils, ie 3d base, well the sox inquired about marson and donald and have a ton of vet pitchers, a young masterson and lester and the highly regarded mike bowden in the minors. The sox feel they will need a catcher soon and marson is an every day catcher going forward. I’m sure they haven’t forgotten the don ald who tore up the AFL and made them lust after his services. Buck has talent but @ 24 why wasn’t he in the majors this year; because he isn’t a pitching God like some are making him out to be or because the sox have a surplus of pitching and masterson has possibly past him?
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Not familiar with those “reports” but I have to wonder why a team would be out of favor with a 24-year-oldd with a .245 career ML batting average and want to replace him with a 24-year-old minor league hitting .230 in AAA ball.
Boston became interested in Donald as a possible fill-in at SS because they didn’t like their other options. They are not going to trade a front-line pitcher for him.
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I think that K-Law just hates everybody at this point.
And Happ has a very scary FIP.
Also, I don’t like the idea of selling the farm to win a world series now. We have some very good minor league prospects that COULD become our francise in the next 4 or 5 years. I like winning, I like making the playoffs, but i would rather stay in contention for the next 10 years than win a world series this year.
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we can do both.
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I’m not sure how reliable FIP is. The underlying assumption is that the fraction of non-HR batted balls that you give up is a combination of luck and the quality of your fielders. This seems suspect on its face. Pitchers give up everything from popups and dribblers to smashes. The movement on a pitcher’s pitches would be expected to influence the fraction of pitches that hitters hit squarely. Counting fielders’ contributions should not come into play in comparing pitchers on the same team, which is to say FIP ascribes all the difference between ERA and FIP for pitchers on the same team as due to luck and basically says the whole story of a pitcher’s ability is told by the K/BB ratio and HR frequency. This seems dubious.
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The discussions are completely out of control at this point, one ludicrous point is countered with another equally outrageous point.
When/if a deal goes through, I’ll give my final take on it. Im sure it will surprise a bunch of people here.
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PP any chance of shutting down the Hallday discussion until it actually happens? It just seems it immediately funnels into an open forum for the “rules abusers” to straight to MLB talk instead of MILB talk…Its just getting increasingly difficult to funnel thru trade talk and big club talk to actually find the prospect news(which this site is based on)…not being a hater or anything but some people cant resist to bend the rules on topics..If im off base in my suggestions, i apologize in advance…Ps arent those topics the exact reason PP gave a message board??
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Please let’s shut down the trade talk discussion until something actually happens. Many of the posts on the site are little more than gibberish at this point and the discussion is no longer focused on the minors. It’s more than annoying.
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Can someone tell me what FIP is and how does it trump 6-0
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FIP stands for F(ielding) I(independent) P(itching). It’s an algorithm that converts the numbers pitchers can absolutely control (BB, K, HR) into a statistic scaled to ERA. While certain pitchers always tend to give up less hits than others, they have no control from start to start which batted balls will be caught and which won’t. In this way, a pitchers’ FIP (or DICE) will always be related to his BABIP against.
If a pitcher’s BABIP is abnormally high, his FIP is likely to be lower than his ERA, and the converse if his BABIP is abnormally low.
It’s just another tool to identifying where luck is distorting common statistics.
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governator —
The key word in your description is absolutely in the phrase absolutely control. A pitcher may not be able to absolutely control how hard a batted ball is hit or where it is his, but they do seem to impact how hard the balls are hit on average, and on average how many ground balls, pop ups, fly balls, and liners are hit. To suggest that the only influence a pitcher exerts over a batted ball is HR or not a HR is silly.
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I wish you had given the whole formula. Right off hand it seems like a stat written by someone who knows very little
about baseball.
Happ induces flyball what for a large part are not HRs(as he did in Reading). Given the small area of CBP outfield that is a giant plus. Even dispite the common phobia for flyball pitchers
I claim this stat is innane to Happ.
Thanks governator1 and if you have the whole formula please post it.
It will be interesting to see how Happ pitches in the vast Marlin’s park. As of now he has the 13 lowest ERA in the majors (over 80 inn.),a great outing could move him higher
in the elite company he finds himself (just above Santana who is 14 by a hair and millions of dollars.
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sorry “despite”
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FIP at this stage is still in it’s infancy and isn’t perfect yet. Eventually the kinks will get worked out and it will be a better representation of what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on a neutral park and neutral fielding team.
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era is a somewhat distorted stat anyway. say a pitcher throws 10 complete games and allows 30 earned runs. thats an era of 3.00. simple but if the same pitcher has one more bad game and allows 10 earned runs in say 2 innings that raises his era a full run to 4.00, almost. changes unfairly his effectiveness in peoples eyes. my solution, throw out a pitchers worst and best outing. it will give a truer reading of the pitcher.
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Welcome to AAA Mike Taylor, 2 for 3 with a homer, steal and walk in the night cap.
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FIP seems odd,I’ll wait to see.
A “MEAN” type of ERA at least at season’s end might be valuable and fit with the ole saying “some bad games ,some great games but it’s what you do with the games with less than great stuff. Does such an animal exist???
Conrats Mr Taylor Funny I only saw one AB in the first game
and even then they seemed to pitching carefully to him
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Talk about HOT Garcia hits the .300 congrats. For the 10 games on his page ,he is hitting .422. Very nice
Then there is Kissock. If he is to progress he needs to get left handers out. Not only that they are lifting the ball.
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FIP = [HR*13 + (BB + HBP – IBB)*3 – K*2}/IP
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Thanks You guys finally have a star position player. good for you
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On FIP, there is also a league adjustment factor, but I don’t know what it is.
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It’s hard to imagine not having a part factor also. So much is based on the home run. CBP cant be the same as Land Shark
Stadium
BTW is that named after Wayne H. I wish someone would add up how much money he made after he sold the team.
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Nowheels,
Yes, Happ has more IP on the road, yet 7 HR at home and only 4 on the road.
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