OF – Kelly Dugan

Name: Kelly Dugan
Position: OF/1B
Bats: SW
Throws: RH
DOB: 9/18/90 (20 as of April 1, 2011)
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 195 lbs
Drafted: 2nd round, 2009 ($485,000 bonus)

Pre Draft Report: Kelly Dugan was taken with the 75^th overall pick (and the Phillies’ first pick) of the 2009 draft out of Notre Dame HS in Sherman Oaks, CA.  Notre Dame has a good baseball tradition, with four alumni (including Mike Stanton) currently in the majors.  His family ties are well-documented at this point as his father Dennis is a writer/actor/director who has collaborated with Adam Sandler on many projects (although, in the eyes of the author, his role as the father in Can’t Buy Me Love is his most memorable contribution to cinema).  Kelly Dugan was being tracked prior to his senior season, but as this report from Baseball America, he was seen as a likely college guy with an eye on the 2012 draft:

Kelly Dugan, a Pepperdine signee, is Notre Dame’s top player. Tall, lanky and projectable at 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, Dugan has a sweet lefthanded swing and is a silky smooth first baseman.

The son of actor, director and producer Dennis Dugan, Kelly will not need a stunt man or body double on a baseball field. Home runs flew out of the tiny El Dorado yard in this game, with Kelly Dugan poking two opposite field home runs.

No one should alter his swing, but Dugan may benefit from lower, more relaxed hands. In addition, Dugan initiates his load mechanism too late, often forcing him to flick at the ball as it is nearly past him. He’ll probably windup in college after the June draft, but there is little doubt that Dugan has the ability to be a top draftee in 2012.

By the time the 2009 draft came around, BA ranked Dugan as the 75^th best prospect in California.  Its pre-draft report noted projectable power and his ability to run a 7.1/60 with a good arm, making a switch to the outfield possible.  Once again, it noted a very strong commitment to Pepperdine.

Despite the strong draw of college, the Phillies selected Dugan in the 2^nd round and signed him before the end of June and he began his career in the Gulf Coast League.

Career Synopsis: Dugan struggled in his first taste of pro ball, putting up a paltry .233/.297/.300 line in the GCL in 2009.  In 150 ABs, he managed just 9 XBH and stole 9 bases in 14 attempts.  Defensively, Dugan saw time at all three outfield positions.  Following the season, Dugan participated in the Florida Instructional League.

Heading into 2010, Dugan was 27^th on BA’s organizational ranking.  He was held back at extended spring training before being sent to Williamsport.  His stint at Williamsport was interrupted by a freak incident when he was hit on the shin by a ball during batting practice after playing just four games.  The injury eventually resulted in a staph infection, which needed to be addressed surgically.  He returned in early August for a nine-game rehab stint in the GCL (where he batted .576 with a 1.498 OPS) before returning to Williamsport to finish the season.  Across the two stops, Dugan’s 2010 produced a .366/.455/.527 line, although the splits were noticeable, given a .693 OPS in Williamsport.  Dugan once again participated in the FIL after the season.

Scouting Report: Below is an assessment of Dugan’s raw tools, rated on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are my estimation based on what I’ve read and those I’ve talked to. The second number is a future projection, the first number is the current assessment

Hit For Average: 55
Hit For Power: 55/60
Fielding: 50
Throwing Arm: 50
Speed: 50

Summary: Dugan has average to a tick above tools across the board. He has good raw power that is more prevalent in batting practice than games at this point. It was thought he’d start a 1B, but the Phillies have used him in the outfield, which improves his defensive value and also his path to the big leagues.

Upside:  It’s difficult to gauge what, if anything, the Phillies have in Dugan.  He’s logged only 280 plate appearances as a pro, and they were significantly interrupted by injury.  His 18% K rate and 7.5% walk rates aren’t horrible for a high school kid, but pretty much all other statistical measures to date are at or below average.  Scouting reports still think he has projectable power from both sides and speed, but neither of these has manifested themselves in his performance yet.  The Phillies have praised his makeup, and Dugan credits his time spent with Chris Truby in extended spring training last year as helping him immensely.  More than anything else, Dugan simply needs plate appearances.  With this in mind (and the glut of outfielders in the low levels of the system), the Phillies will move Dugan back to his high school position of 1B this year in Lakewood.  It remains to be seen whether Dugan has enough bat to stick at 1B.

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Profile updated 21 February 2011