Nick Hernandez

Name: Nick Hernandez
Position: LHP
Bats: LH
Throws: LH
DOB: 7/30/88 (22 as of April 1, 2011)
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 205 lbs
Drafted: 12^th round, 2009 ($125,000 bonus)

Pre Draft Report: Nick Hernandez comes from a baseball family, as his father was the 8^th overall pick in the 1978 draft and his uncle is long-time MLB umpire Angel Hernandez.  He was originally selected by the Oakland A’s in the 32^nd round of the 2006 draft after a senior season that saw him named the Miami-Dade County Pitcher of the Year.  Prior to that draft, Baseball America noted a 90 mph fastball and an above-average change, but that fluctuating velocity and his commitment to Tennessee would likely keep him out of the first six rounds.  He obviously fell further than that and ultimately honored his commitment to Tennessee.

Hernandez started his collegiate career in the Volunteers’ bullpen, but moved into the rotation during his freshman year and stayed there through the rest of his career.  After a relatively disappointing junior season, Baseball America had Hernandez ranked 9^th in Tennessee among potential draftees.  It noted that Hernandez was a likely Top 100 pick prior to the season after a strong showing in the Cape Cod League the prior summer, but his control fell off during his junior year and when he caught more of the plate, it got hit.  His fastball was 88-91, but the fluctuating speed made his changeup less effective and his curve was below average.  Still, BA projected him as a possible 6^th round pick.

Hernandez ultimately fell to the Phillies in the 12^th round and they signed him in mid-June and assigned him to Williamsport.

Career Synopsis: Hernandez began his pro career in Williamsport and pitched quite well, making 15 starts and compiling a 7.5 K rate, 2.2 walk rate (3.35 K/BB), 8.1 hit rate, and 0.2 homer rate over 80 IP.  He allowed 3 ER or less in 13 of his 15 starts and was the Phillies Minor League Pitcher of the Month in August.  Following the season, Hernandez participated in the Florida Instructional League.

Hernandez was assigned to Lakewood for the 2010 season.  He was nothing short of dominating, striking out 8.4 per 9, walking 1.3, allowing just 6.1 hits, 0.6  homers, and a 1.61 ERA.  His season was capped off by an outing against Greensboro where he took a no-hitter into the 8^th inning before allowing a solo homer.  Unfortunately, that was his last meaningful game of the year, as he was DL’ed after that start with a shoulder problem after just eight starts and 56 innings.

Initially, Hernandez was expected to miss just two starts with shoulder “weakness”.  While feeling no pain, Hernandez was seeing a decrease in velocity and noticed that it was taking longer to warm up and get loose.  An MRI eventually revealed a frayed labrum (the stage just before a labrum tear).  Hernandez didn’t throw for three weeks and worked to strengthen his shoulder.  He eventually made some starts for the GCL Phils, but had a setback as he’d adjusted his mechanics due to the shoulder issues and lost his command.  He was eventually shut down, but did reportedly pitch in the FIL.

Scouting Report: Below is an assessment of Hernandez’ raw tools, rated on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are my estimation based on what I’ve read and those I’ve talked to. The second number is a future projection, the first number is the current assessment

Arm Strength: 55

Fastball:55

Control:60

Command:55/60

Mechanics: 45

Durability: 40

Secondary Pitches:50/55

Summary: Hernandez has a tick above average arm strength, sitting in the 91-93 range, and if he can maintain that, the 55 grade is warranted, and is possibly even a fringe 60. He locates his fastball well, and it has decent movement. His changeup is a plus pitch, his breaking ball lagging behind. I had one report indicate it was more slurvy, but still tough on lefties. His injury does cloud his long term health, but if he is 100% healthy now, it shouldn’t be a major concern.

Upside:  Hernandez appeared likely to quickly jump to Clearwater after his start in Lakewood, but the injury effectively ruined his season and left his prospect status up in the air.  He was obviously very effective when healthy, although his stuff belies that success.  His fastball is still in the low-90s on a good day and he tends to leave it up, leading to a .6 GO/FO ratio in Lakewood last year.  His changeup has become a plus-pitch and led to a lot of his success in the lower levels to date.  It’s difficult to judge where Hernandez now sits as a prospect—his fastball velocity has been fluctuating since his senior year of high school.  Hernandez was reportedly at 100% in September.  A return to Lakewood to start 2011 is possible, although the Phillies might prefer to avoid the cold New Jersey April and push him to Clearwater.  Regardless of where he starts, Hernandez needs to show that his shoulder is healthy and pick up his performance where he left off to regain any of the buzz he had last May.

Videos:

As you can see, Hernandez does a good job of hiding the ball here. In his scouting bureau video (the 2nd one), his delivery is very reminiscent of Jeff Francis, the lefty from the Rockies. Francis has had major injury troubles, so maybe thats not a good thing. He does drop his hand slightly (not a full stabbing motion) but keeps it fairly level, which doesn’t place as much strain on his arm. His arm action isn’t perfectly clean, and its tough to know how much his mechanics contributed to his injury.

Articles:

Profile Updated: 5 February 2011