Florida Instructional League Game #12; 10/6/2014

Monday afternoon, the Phillies played the Blue Jays at Bright House Field. The weather was as comfortable as we’ve seen down here in a while, and the game was among the best pitched so far this fall. The Phillies came back to win 2-1. The line up/box score/write up – Continue reading

General Discussion–Week of October 6th

So, first off I am no Brad.  There is no other Brad.  But if anyone wants to attempt to be Brad, feel free to email me at phuturephillies1@yahoo.com.  My thanks to Brad who provided keen insight and a good deal of laughter for all of us with his laconic quips and remarks daily…

That said, a few news items.  Opening day in the AFL season is Tuesday.  Stay tuned for updates as anything notable occurs. 

Aaron Brown was named the #18 prospect in the New York Penn League.

JP Crawford was named the #2 prospect in the South Atlantic League, although he hadnt played there since June.

Adam Morgan, returning after missing all of 2014 injured, will pitch in the AFL.  It will be interesting to see how he is used and what kind of stuff he will bring to the table in Arizona.

Discuss.

Florida Instructional League Game #10; 10/3/2014

The Phillies’ game at the Englebert Complex was moved to the Blue Jays’ Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. The change in venue must have been unsettling as the Phillies lost 5-0 to the Blue Jays on Friday. The line up/box score – Continue reading

Florida Instructional League Game #9; 10/2/2014

The Phillies lost 5-2 to the Pirates on Thursday. The line up, box score, and write up – Continue reading

Florida Instructional League, Intrasquad Game – 10/1/2014

We’re at the tail end of the rainy season in Florida.  Tuesday’s game was played at an earlier time and over before I got to the stadium.  Today’s intrasquad game started at 1:00pm.  Phils1 played Phils2.  The game was called after 6 innings.  Phils 2 made up an early 3-0 deficit to win 10-3.  The pitching was a little sketchy, but some of the guys threw well.  Ismael Cabrera started for Phils2 and Carlos Indriago started for Phils1.  Each threw 2 innings. Continue reading

Report Card, Bullpen, Clearwater and Lakewood

Report card for relievers in CLearwater and Lakewood.  The final report card segment will cover Williamsport and GCL.

Clearwater

Aaron Baker, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 19 games; 3-2 with a 4.89ERA between GCL, Lakewood and CLearwater; 2 saves; 35IP 45H 6BB 38K; 1HR allowed; .306 opp avg; 1.46 WHIP; 1.19 GO/AO; Baker was picked up mid season and gave Clearwater innings.  Grade: C; 2015: Another organization

Cody Forsythe, 24, Phils 25th round pick in 2013; 45 games between Lakewood and Clearwater; 5-5 with a 2.35ERA; 12 saves; 65IP 55H 17BB 72K; 6HR allowed; .223 opp avg; 1.11 WHIP; 0.78 GO/AO; 2.4BB/10.0K per 9; For Clearwater: 22 games; 2-3 with a 2.27ERA; .208 opp avg; 1.07 WHIP.  Forsythe was excellent for Lakewood and pitched even better for CLearwater.  He is a guy whose value is limited as a reliever but on the rise nonetheless.  Grade: A; 2015: Reading

Perci Garner, 25, Phils 2nd round pick in 2010; 26 games (16 starts) between Reading and Clearwater; 4-5 with a 4.61ERA; 93.2IP 88H 77BB 75K; 3 HR allowed; .254 opp avg; 1.76 WHIP; 1.74 GO/AO; 7.4BB/7.2K per 9; Garner started the season in the Reading rotation, lost his spot, was very poor in the Reading bullpen, sent to Clearwater and not much better there.  He simply can’t throw strikes.  and hasn’t been able to throw strikes throughout his minor league career. Grade: D-; 2015: I would be fine seeing Garner released however I suspect he has one more shot, probably in the Reading bullpen Continue reading

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General Discussion – Week of 9-29-14 – State Of The Team/Farewell Edition

So this is going to be my last post here. I already said a good bye of sorts a few week ago, so I’ll make this about the team and the GM, and not about me.

As you all likely know, I have been far from an Amaro apologist in the past. The biggest mistake of Amaro’s tenure, and the ultimate downfall of any hope to compete in the 2012-2015 timeframe, has to be the Ryan Howard deal. It was the domino that took down the “whole big thing of dominoes” that was a perennial contender. It seemed at the time like Amaro was hedging against the free agent first base market in the winter of 2011/12, which was set to include Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. So when Pujols contract runs out in 2035 or whatever, and we compare those players’ hindsightedly questionable deals to Howard’s, Amaro may have gotten off lightly. However, he could have done any number of other things to get the same (read:no) production out of first base, and allowed himself a great deal of flexibility (Cody Overbeck at first and Jayson Werth in right, anyone?). Of course, the what ifs and the maybe woulddas are nice now. Who knows what wild deals Amaro would have turned to try to fill the perceived gap Howard left in the middle of the lineup. Continue reading

Florida Instructional League Game #6; 9/27/2014

The Phillies and Orioles faced off in an Instructional League game this morning. It ended in a 1-1 tie after nine innings. The Orioles managed 2 hits, one an infield single, and scored an unearned run on a hit batsman, error catching a pickoff throw, and another error on a throw to try and get the runner at third. The Phillies amassed 4 hits, one an infield single, and scored their run on an Andrew Knapp ground out after Williams Astudillo singled to right and moved to third on a passed ball and a balk. Continue reading

Report Card, Bullpen, Lehigh Valley and Reading

The final report card for the Lehigh Valley and Reading bullpen.  Next up is CLearwater and Lakewood. 

Lehigh Valley

Phillippe Aumont, 25, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; 35 games, 3-3 with a 3.93ERA; 55IP 48H 39BB 65K; .240 opp avg; 1.58 WHIP; 1.30 GO/AO; 6.4BB/10.6K per 9; .226 vs. LHH; .252 vs. RHH; .250 opp avg over last month; Aumont received multiple shots to pitch for the Phils this year and was beyond awful during each opportunity.  His minor league season was marred by continued inconsistency, lack of control, and missed time due to injury.  The Phillies failing to call Aumont up in September pretty much says it all at this stage.  Without options next year, I expect him to be in another organization.  Grade: D

Jeremy Horst, 29, Acquired from Cincinnati in 2012; 45 games; 4-2 with a 3.98ERA; 63.1IP 54H 31BB 57K; 4HR allowed; .234 opp avg; 1.34 WHIP; 0.51 GO/AO; .236 vs. LHH; .232 vs. RHH; .169 opp avg over last 30 days; 1.08 ERA in 9 appearances since 8/1.  Horst was simply bad for the first part of the season, was designated for assignment off the 40 man and came back to pitch very well over the seasons last month or two.  With the Phils now having some depth from the left side in the bullpen and Horst being a free agent, I would expect him elsewhere come 2015.  Grade: C

Tyler Knigge, 25, Phils 12th round pick in 2010; 45 appearances, 7-3 with a 3.43ERA between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 3 saves; 76IP 71H 22BB 47K; 2.6BB/5.6K per 9; .248 opp avg; 1.22 WHIP; 1.87 GO/AO; For Lehigh Valley: 27 games, 4-3 with a 4.61ERA; .270 opp. avg; 1.37 WHIP.  Knigge was lights out for Reading and was called up to Lehigh Valley mid-season where he struggled at times with the transition.  Still, he showed signs of promise, showing very good command. Grade: B-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Ethan Martin, 25, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 29 games, 2-1 with a 4.15ERA; 47.2IP 46H 21BB 45K; 2HR allowed; .256 opp avg; 1.41 WHIP; 1.38 GO AO; 4.0BB/8.5K per 9; .221 vs. LHH; .282 vs. RHH; .270 opp avg over last 30 days.  All in all a disappointing year for Martin who was shut down early in Spring Training with arm issues and was ineffective for a period of time upon his return.  Overall, the numbers are mediocre.  There is talent there.  It is a matter of whether it can be properly channeled.  Grade: C-; 2015: Lehigh Valley with a call up to Philly at some point

Hector Neris, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2010;48 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 6-3 with a 3.61ERA and 2 saves; 77.1IP 62H 29BB 70K; 8HR allowed; .219 opp avg; 1.18 WHIP; 0.81 GO/AO; 3.4BB/8.1K per 9; .264 vs. LHH; .203 vs. RHH. Neris had a very good year, getting called up for his major league debut (sent back down after one scoreless appearance) and putting himself on the radar screen as a true candidate for the future of the Phillies bullpen.  Too many home runs balls, but he has a couple of pitches that are near major league ready.  Grade: B+; 2015: Lehigh Valley

BJ Rosenberg, 29, Phils 13th round pick in 2008; 18 games, 2-1 with a 6.63ERA; 19IP 24H 12BB 17K; 2 HR allowed; .312 opp avg; 1.89 WHIP; 0.90 GO/AO; 5.7BB/8.1K per 9; Just an awful year for Rosenberg who was brutal for the both the Phils and ‘Pigs and had multiple stints on the DL.  Without options, he will come into Sprint Training in “make it or break it” mode.  With the other options the Phils now have, I suspect Rosenberg lands elsewhere in 2015, if not over the winter.  Grade: D-

Cesar Jiminez, 29, Re-Signed as a free agent in 2014; 38 games (2 starts); 3-2 with a 1.45ERA; 3 saves; 49.2IP 34H 15BB 46K; 0 HR allowed; 2.7BB/8.3K per 9; .193 opp avg; 0.99 WHIP; 0.87 GO/AO; .167 vs. LHH; .282 vs. RHH.  Jiminez dominated the International League all season with numbers that were off the charts.  Good control and didnt allow a homerun ball in 50 innings.  His command was not as good in his multiple trips to the majors but Jiminez currently has a ERA below 2 and an opp avg below .250 for the Phils.  Jiminez has no options and he will need to be re-signed over the off season if the Phils want him back.  They could do alot worse than Jiminez as an 11th or 12th man in their bullpen.  Grade: A

Luis Garcia, 27, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 39 games; 2-1 with an 0.96ERA; 22 saves; 46.2IP 35H 16BB 52K; 0HR allowed; .205 opp avg; 1.09 WHIP; 1.43 GO/AO; 3.1BB/10.0K per 9; .150 with RISP; Garcia was totally lights out for Lehigh Valley; was an IL All Star and among the league leaders in saves, even with multiple major league stints.  His first two short call ups to Philly were miserable this year, but since September 1st, Garcia has a 2.08ERA for the Phils.  Grade: A-; 2015: Garcia has an option remaining, so he certainly will be back with the organization bouncing between Lehigh Valley and Philly.

Miguel Gonzalez, 28, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 31 games (3 starts) between Clearwater, Reading and Lehigh Valley; 0-4 with a 3.11ERA; 3 saves; 46.1IP 40H 26BB 54K; .231 opp avg; 1.42 WHIP; 0.63 GO/AO; 5.1BB/10.5K per 9; For Lehigh Valley: 12 games, 0-0 with a 1.62ERA; 2 saves; 16.2IP 10H 10BB 19K; .172 opp avg; Gonzalez entered the season with very high expectations, was immediately injured and then struggled upon his return moving from the starting rotation to the bullpen.  He flourished in both the Reading and Lehigh Valley bullpens showing major league “stuff”, albeit with command issues.  He was called up on 9/1 and has struggled for the Phils in his 5 outings thru 9/25 (8.31 ERA).  Grade: C, Gonzalez pretty much ended up where I expected him to be at the end of 2014, but took a very different route than I expected to get there; 2015: I would be very surprised if he is not on the 25 man roster, making $4M again in 2015.

Reading

Matt Hoffman, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 23 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 0-1 with a 3.71ERA; 26.2IP 26H 10BB 31K; 1.36 WHIP; .255 opp avg; 0.75 GO/AO; Hoffman was signed as a free agent mid season and did a good job in the role that was given to him.  Grade: B-; 2015: Most likely elsewhere

Colton Murray, 24, Phils 13th round pick in 2011; 47 games; 3-7 with a 2.23ERA; 8 saves; 76.2IP 55H 30BB 77K; 5HR allowed; 3.5BB/9.1K per 9; .201 opp avg; 1.11 WHIP; 0.90 GO/AO; FOr Reading: 36 games; 1-5 with a 2.29ERA; .188 opp avg; 1.03 WHIP.  Murray is probably the reliever whose stock has risen the most throughout the Phils minor leagues.  He was outstanding this year, progressing from CLearwater to Reading and dominating AA hitters.  Home run balls are a bit of a problem, but a very good year overall for Murray who will need to be added to the 40 man roster.  Grade: A-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Mike Nesseth, 26, Phils 17th round pick in 2010; 42 games (9 starts) between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 2-7 with a 5.60ERA; 1 save; 88.1IP 112H 27BB 64K; 11HR allowed; 2.8BB/6.5K per 9; .310 opp avg; 1.57 WHIP; 1.38 GO/AO; 18 games since July 1: 1-1 with a 2.83ERA; Nesseth was simply as bad as you can be for the first three months of the season and then came around towards years end to show some of the promise that was there in 2013.  I had very big expectations for Nesseth entering 2014 and the grade encompasses the fact that I expected a major league debut.  Grade: D-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Neifi Ogando, 25, Acquired from Boston in 2013; 48 games; 5-1 with a 6.27ERA; 7 saves; 56IP 64H 28BB 57K; 6HR allowed; .291 opp avg; 1.64 WHIP; 1.68 GO/AO; 4.5BB/9.1K per 9; .300 vs. LHH; .288 vs. RHH; .211 opp avg over last  month; Post All STar Game: 3-0 with a 3.86ERA in 16 games; Ogando was extremely inconsistent in the first half of the season, often stuggling with his control.  He did a better job in the second half but needs to show he can do it consistently before a move up.  He has very good stuff, just needs to consistently know where to throw it.  Grade: D+; 2015: Reading

Seth Rosin, 25, Acquired from Giants in 2012; 43 games between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 3-5 with a 3.86ERA; 3 saves; 58.1IP 64H 19BB 44K; 6HR allowed; .286 opp avg; 1.42 WHIP; 0.85 GO/AO; Rosin had a whirlwind year during which he made his major league debut for the Dodgers, then pitched for the Rangers in the majors, before he was returned to the Phillies via Rule 5 return.  When he returned he was simply awful for Lehigh Valley, before turning it around in Reading to have a very consistent second half of the season.  I havent lost faith that Rosin could be a help in a major league bullpen, however, the upside appears to be as a 11th ot 12th man in the bullpen, as a middle reliever.  Grade: C-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Kyle Simon, 24, Acquired from Baltimore in 2012; 46 games; 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 3 saves; 75.2IP 77H 21BB 41K; 3HR allowed; .271 opp avg; 1.30 WHIP; 2.47 GO/AO; 2.5BB/4.9K per 9; .254 opp avg over last month; For Lehigh Valley: 10 games; 0-2 with a 9.42ERA; .317 opp. avg; 10 BB in 14.1IP; Simon started the year with the ‘Pigs and was beyond brutal before being sent back to AA.  For Reading, Simon got his mojo back, pitching well.  The Phils will need to make a 40 man roster decision with Simon.  I suspect he is left unprotected and goes untaken.  Grade: D+; 2015: Lehigh Valley 

Austin Wright, 25, Phils 8th round pick in 2011; 32 games; 2-4 with a 5.06ERA; 48IP 41H 44BB 38K; 5HR allowed; .225 opp avg; 1.77 GO/AO; 0.72 GO/AO; 8.3BB/7.1K per 9; .177 vs. LHP; .250 vs. RHP; .250 opp avg over last month; .222 opp avg with RISP; All you need to do is look at the walk rate to judge Wright’s success (lack thereof) this year.  Simply awful.  Combine that with missing significant time injured and you have a very bad year. That said, he has talent.  Look at opponents batting average.  He is Rule 5 eligible, and I actually think the Phils will protect him simply because of the .177 LHH opp. avg. Grade: D-; 2015: Reading until he proves he knows where the strike zone is.