Phuture Phillies

Baseball America is rolling out their League Top 20’s, and both Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman made the list at #6 and #14 respectively in the FSL, while Kyle Kendrick and Mike Costanzo made the Easter League Top 20. Check the list here and here. Kendrick’s inclusion has to be an oversight, as he clearly broke the innings limit that BA places on it’s qualified guys.

Carrasco

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

Carrasco’s biggest concern is his consistency. When he begins a game with good stuff, he usually leaves hitters helpless. But when he doesn’t, he has yet to show the savvy to win with less than his best. He tries to overthrow, which results in him leaving vulnerable fastballs up in the strike zone.

He also needs to refine his curveball. Carrasco shows some feel for it and occasionally snaps off a plus bender, but he struggles to locate it.

Outman

With Outman, it’s all about control. He struggles at times to control his fastball, which explains why ranked among the minor league leaders with 77 walks in 159 innings. At times he struggles to control his emotions, which explains why he overthrows and is prone to big innings and bad outings.

But there’s also a lot to like about the lefty, who led the league with a 2.45 ERA and earned a promotion to Double-A. Outman’s fastball sits at 92-94 mph and he pairs it with an 84-87 mph slider. He’s working on a changeup that still has a ways to go.

A good athlete, Outman has reworked his mechanics and developed a more conventional delivery since turning pro. He also has added some deception, as he now hides the ball much longer, and his fastball has picked up some life. One manager who saw him in low Class A in 2006 said has made significant strides since last year

Kendrick

Kendrick never had pitched above Class A prior to 2007, but he entered the postseason as the Phillies’ Game Two starter, and his 3.87 ERA ranked second among their starters. He got started down that path in the EL, as he harnessed his command and stopped trying to pitch up in the strike zone with his fastball and down with his slider.

The athletic Kendrick repeats his delivery, pumps his two-seam sinker to the bottom of the zone and spots his harder, low-90s four-seamer down and away. He also has a hard slider that’s more of a groundball pitch than a strikeout offering. His changeup plays up because he locates it well.

“He realized strikeouts are over-rated,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s pitching at the knees and when he misses, he misses down. He made hitters hit his pitch, because his command was that good. To give up just three home runs, playing in our ballpark, that’s all about executing your pitches, and he did.”

Costanzo

Costanzo finished second to Larish with 27 homers despite a horrific start. For the second straight year, he finished with a flourish, hitting .358 with eight home runs in the final month. He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not surprisingly, I have to disagree with PJ Forbes here. Strikeouts are not overrated, and they are a good indicator of future success. I was mildly surprised that Donald didn’t make the back end of the list on either the SAL or the FSL Top 20, but I guess it’s because BA still doesn’t view him as more than a fringe regular in the majors. So far, our representation looks like this

Joe Savery, #2 NYPL
Dominic Brown, #15 NYPL
Adrian Cardenas, #13 SAL
Carlos Carrasco, #6 FSL
Josh Outman, #14 FSL
Kyle Kendrick, #14 EAS
Mike Costanzo, #19, EAS

Jon Lieber hit the DL, and from the way it looks, he won’t be back for a while. I have to think Gillick is scrambling to try and trade for a starter at this point, but will probably have to use an internal option for at least a start or two as to not be held over the barrel. A few weeks ago, I lobbied for Kyle Kendrick to get a shot, and in two starts so far, he’s more than held his own. Kendrick was our best option at the time, but let’s see who the best option is now…or should I say, the least damaging option.

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If Kendrick was looking to make a good impression and get himself another start, I think he accomplished that goal today. Here’s the final line

6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

And the rest

11:3 GB:FB, 92 pitches (55 strikes, 37 balls)

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With the recent injury to Freddy Garcia, the Phillies are going to need to make a roster move when his spot comes up in the rotation. With the signing of Jose Mesa (vomit), they will go with an extra reliever until that point. Zagurski has options, so he could be sent down, but he’s thrown the ball well, I don’t know why they’d go that route. Clay Condrey fits the bill of fungible veteran who probably will clear waivers, so he’s my choice to get the tap. But that brings us to who should get a shot to start.

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Tuesday night proved to be an interesting night for the Phillies stable of pitching prospects, as three of the most interesting guys in the system all took the mound, and two of the three were pitching against highly rated pitching prospects for their respective teams. The night also proved to be a continuation of early trends for all three pitchers.

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Round 4 begins now.

Griffith, Derek, LHP (age 24) Grade = D+

Griffith had a decent 2005, allowing less than a hit per inning, striking out over 7 per nine innings, and keeping the ball in the park. In 2006, with a promotion to Clearwater, he took a step back. The former 17th round pick posted a 4.52 ERA in 151.2 IP, allowing 162 H, 57 walks, and struck out only 95 batters. His home run rate remained similar (up a tick), and he didn’t walk too many more per 9, but because he was 23, he needed a better season. When you’re taking guys in the 17th round, you are clearly tempering expectations, but after his 2005, there was reason to be somewhat optimistic. Because he is left handed, his shelf life is probably longer than that of a comparable pitcher who happens to be right handed. He experienced slightly better success vs LHB, holding them to a .641 OPS against his .777 OPS allowed to RH batters, which may suggest a possible move to the bullpen. He also induced 254 groundballs, to only 156 flyballs, which is nice, but he still pitches to contact too much for my liking, and that tends to catch up at higher levels. Griffith may repeat Clearwater, but along with Lakewood, those two teams will have a ton of candidates for the rotation, so he may be sent to Reading to start, or he may be converted to relief. If he can hone his stuff and ramp it up for one inning, he might be a good bullpen candidate in 2 years, but he has a ways to go yet. He’d receive a straight D if he weren’t lefthanded and didn’t have strong groundball tendencies.

Ceiling: I’m not sure, a swingman or 6th inning guy? He doesn’t have dominant splits, but is a bit better against LH batters than RH batters, so he might be a viable bullpen option.

Floor: Out of baseball in 3 years. He’s still got the tall frame that scouts like, especially for a LHP, but at some point, he needs to show it on the field. 2007 will kind of determine his future in baseball, or at least give us a much better idea.

Conclusion: As you can tell by the grade, I’m not very high on Griffith at this point. I guess if he lights up the world in 2007, the Phillies will take a chance on him and add him to the 40 man. If not, he’s Rule 5 bound, and could be out of the organization. He needs a big time season in 2007, because he’s 24 and has yet to reach AA.

Kendrick, Kyle, RHP (age 22) Grade: B

My thinking on Kendrick seems to differ day to day. I wrote a piece a little while back that 2007 was a big year for him, and if he were going to become a big league contributor, he’d have to take a big step forward, but the more I think about it, the more comfortable I am with him as a prospect. Because of his age, he pitched almost all of 2006 at age 21, he is still fine in terms of where he should be, but he’s been in pro ball for four seasons now, and after 2007, will have to be placed on the 40 man roster. Prior to 2006, he hadn’t done much to warrant that spot, but his 2006 was a definite step in the right direction. He posted dominant numbers at Lakewood, with a 2.15 ERA in 46 IP, allowing only 34 H and 15 BB against 54 K. After being promoted to Clearwater, the strikeout numbers dropped substantially (79 in 130 IP), but his walk rate actually improved (2.93 to 2.56) and he saw a moderate rise in his hit rate. As he’s climbed the ladder, it seems he struggles initially, but once he repeats the level, he gets more comfortable and regains his stuff. As 2007 will only be his age 22 season, he’s still prime prospect age. He could start back at Clearwater, but the Phillies might go ahead and send him to Reading, as he did log 130 innings at Clearwater. He’ll experience his toughest test to date in the Eastern League, and it will be interesting to see which Kendrick we get. His grade has room to move in either direction. A strong season at AA and I’d have no problems rating him a B+, but if he falters and his K rate remains in the 5-6 range, he could easily become a C+ prospect.

Ceiling: A #2/#3 starter, depending on his K rate. Right now, that is the area that remains the biggest question mark. Many had pegged Kendrick as a breakout candidate for 2006, and they were right, but now the test will be what he does going forward.

Floor: Let’s say his floor is a four A SP who bounces between AAA and the Majors. He doesn’t seem like a bullpen guy, at least now, and people will always dream on his loose arm and quality stuff, but if he can’t get guys out, and can’t generate swings and misses, he might not have a long term future in the pen either.

Conclusion: I had my doubts about Kendrick prior to 2006, and while I still have doubts, they’ve grown less convincing. I still think 2007 is a make or break year for him, not so much in being placed on the 40 man (he probably will be, regardless), but in him actually becoming a quality big league pitcher.

Johnson, Nate, RHP (age 24) Grade = C (Updated from a C+ to a C)

Johnson is a guy who never gets mentioned, even when discussing the fringe prospects, but I think he might deserve a look. I give him a C+, but I will state right off the top that he was too old for High A Clearwater. Johnson was taken in the 20th round of the 2004 draft, and 2006 represented his age 24 season, so it’s time for him to start moving a bit more rapidly. However, since he is exclusively a reliever, that shouldn’t be that much of an issue. Johnson struggled at Batavia in 2004, he struggled at Lakewood in 2005, but he really came into his own in 2006, posting a 2.56 ERA in 66 IP, allowing only 59 hits and 10 walks to 55 strikeouts. While the K rate (7.42/9) isn’t overly impressive, his control is, and 1.35 BB/9 is good regardless of the level you’re at. He induced more groundballs than fly balls (91 to 65) and allowed only 3 HR in the 66 innings. He was tough against LH batters, holding them to a .573 OPS, but he also shut down righties to the tune of a .609 OPS. He should be sent to Reading in 2007, where he’ll pitch for most of the year, in all likelihood. With another solid year, he could present himself as a bullpen option sometime in 2008. He isn’t flashy, he doesn’t have world-beater stuff, but he’s just the type of prospect all successful organizations need to have an abundance of.

Ceiling: A 7th inning reliever, really nothing more, and maybe a long man as “less” if you want to go that route.

Floor: Organizational filler.

Conclusion: I’m probably the only one talking about Johnson, and I may look silly in this space at this time next year, but I think he’s got a decent chance to become the 2008 version of Geoff Geary. Not spectacular, doesn’t have mind blowing stuff, but gets guys out, and does so cheaply. His ability to keep the ball in the park, and his impeccable control are big pluses for me, but we’ll see how it translates at AAA and eventually the bigs. I think he’s got a 50/50 shot of becoming the next Geary.

EDIT: oldgrandad snapped me out of my Nate Johnson appreciation fest and made me realize he does, in fact, warrant only a C.

Overholt, Patrick, RHP (age 22) Grade = B-

Overholt was a guy that I highlighted in my Arms to Watch piece, and I’m a big fan of his going forward. A college closer, he has the mentality to pitch in the late innings, and maybe most importantly, to me anyway, is his dominant strikeout rate. He K’ed 52 in 45 innings at Lakewood, and then 41 in 26 innings at Clearwater. His peripheral numbers were actually better at Clearwater than Lakewood (except HR rate), but his ERA was worse, 4.15 at Clearwater to only 3.15 at Lakewood. His final numbers were solid, 73 IP, 57 H allowed, 36 BB, 93 K. I’d have given him a straight B if it weren’t for his control issues at Lakewood. He cut down his walks by almost 2 per 9 innings at Clearwater, but they are still a concern. He will be 23 for his entire 2007 campaign, and personally, I think he should start off at Reading, but the Phillies might play it safe and start him as the closer in Clearwater with a mid-season promotion. If he can work on his control a bit and get his walk rate down in the 2.75-2.90/9 range and keep his K total where it is, he’s going to be a big league reliever, and possibly even a high leverage type of guy. Definitely an interesting arm, one of many in our pitching heavy system.

Ceiling: A big league closer. Simply put, he’s got quality stuff and gets a lot of swings and misses, plus he has the closing background and seems to have the mindset to pitch in high leverage situations.

Floor: A middle reliever, pitching anywhere from the 6th-8th inning, depending on need.

Conclusion: With Overholt, it’s simply going to come down to his command/control. If he can harness his stuff and avoid giving out free passes, he’s got the ingredients to become a big time reliever, and possibly a closer. While you rarely see a young pitcher come in and just start closing games at the big league level, ala Huston Street, Overholt might start as a 6th/7th inning guy, maybe even as soon as September 2007, but could eventually work his way into the back end of the pen. Tom Gordon isn’t young, and his contract is basically done after 2008, so if Overholt continues to impress, he may get a shot late in 2008 to close out some games, and it could be his role on this team, or on some other team, a few years down the road. Outside of Bisenius, he’s probably our best relief prospect, and being a year younger with closing experience, probably has a leg up on Joe for that spot, if we have an in house guy who can take it.

Welcome to the second installment of Make or Break 2007. Joining Tim Moss on my “on notice” list is 2003 draftee Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick, a seventh round pick in 2003, has four years of time in, and with the new CBA rules regarding the minors, Kendrick will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 2007 if he isn’t placed on the 40 man roster. A 6′3, 185 lb right hander from Washington, Kendrick has yet to really assert himself in his 4 seasons in the system, but his 2006 was a step in the right direction. Kendrick was a tremendous athlete in high school, playing baseball, basketball and football, and eventually turned down a scholarship to Washington State to begin his baseball career. The Phillies loved his long frame and live arm, and figured he’d learn the nuances of pitching as he progressed. Even more so, there was quite a bit made about his strong character and aptitude, and the Phillies felt he had the total package needed to be a successful pitcher.

Things didn’t start so well for Kyle. He struggled in 2003 after being drafted, posting a 5.46 ERA in 31 innings at the GCL Level. He split time at Batavia and Lakewood in 2004, and the results were worse, with a 5.48 ERA at Batavia in 70 innings, and a more painful 6.07 ERA at Lakewood in 66 innings. He gave up 179 hits and 51 walks, compared to only 89 K in 133 innings combined over the two levels. Kendrick saw time at three different levels in 2005

Batavia: 91.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 94 H, 22 BB, 70 K
Lakewood: 22.2 IP, 9.13 ERA, 38H, 10 BB, 11 K
Clearwater: 4 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K

His progress at Batavia was somewhat encouraging, but his first taste of full season ball didn’t go the way he’d have liked. In 2006, the Phillies decided to start him at Lakewood and see what happened. In 46 innings, he posted a nice 2.15 ERA, allowing only 34 H and 18 BB, against 54 K’s. The Phillies bumped him up to Clearwater, and he performed surprisingly well, with a 3.53 ERA in 130 innings, allowing 117 H, 37 BB, and striking out 79. He finished the season in the AFL league, where he struggled a bit, albeit in only 10 innings. His 2006 represents a huge improvement to actually getting results on the field, and because 2006 was only his age 22 season, he’s still in the prospect territory. In my overall top 30, he’d be somewhere between 22-28, simply because I’m not sure what to expect from him going forward, the 2005 version or the 2006 version.

Kendrick is basically a three pitch pitcher, featuring a fastball that sits around 90-93 with good movement, an average changeup, and a slider. He originally threw a slow curveball, but the pitch was inconsistent and he wasn’t able to get many swings and misses, especially ahead in counts, so the Phillies had him scrap the curve late in 2005 and switch to the slider. If the 2006 results are an indication, it was a wise move to switch. The movement on his fastball enables him to get a lot of ground balls, as he had a 1.79 GB to FB ratio in 2006, and he had a solid 0.77 HR/9 rate in 2006. He was tougher on righties than lefties, but not by a margin that suggests he’d be better suited to relief at this point. He does still appear to lack the true qualities of a strikeout pitcher, which could spell some trouble going forward.

Kendrick seems like a lock to start the season in the Reading rotation, and it will represent a huge test for him. He initially struggled when promoted to full season ball, but in 2006 he handled the move from Low A to High A well, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the move to Reading. He’ll be playing in a tougher park for pitchers than he did at Clearwater, and a league that generally promotes a little more offense in the Eastern League than he was accustomed to in the Florida State League. With a strong season, he will almost assuredly find his way onto the 40 man roster come November, and he may get a spot either way, because the Phillies have invested a lot of time in him, and he has shown signs of improvement. However, if he is intent on making a big league contribution, not just the 40 man roster, he’s going to need to step up in 2007 and prove what he can do at Reading.