Phuture Phillies

As you may or may not have seen, the news on Scott Mathieson is not good. Per Scott Lauber

Just got finished writing this for The Paper, but I want to post it here, too. Scott Mathieson’s string of tough luck seemingly won’t stop. Mathieson, a hard-throwing 24-year-old right-hander, could be headed for his third elbow surgery in less than three years. He felt tightness in his elbow two weeks ago while long-tossing, and after being examined separately by noted orthopedic surgeons Dr. Lew Yocum and Dr. James Andrews, those doctors are going to meet with Phillies physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti to discuss a course of action.

Assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies hope to have a verdict by Wednesday, but he said another surgery is “a possibility.”

Uh.

Next time someone says “its just Tommy John surgery, he’ll be ok”, point them to Scott Mathieson and ask him how he feels. I think this basically means his 2008 is lost, and probably a chunk of next season too. A shame, because he definitely could have had an impact this year.

Also, can someone tell me why Pat Gillick isn’t sharing this news with us? Are we experiencing a Weekend at Bernies thing here?

This note was in Mike Radano’s column today

Finally, reliever Scott Mathieson scheduled a visit with Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala., for a third opinion on his surgically repaired right elbow. Mathieson saw Dr. Lew Yocum in Los Angeles as well as the Phillies’ doctors. Even though he has some discomfort, he appears to be going through the natural progression of recovery.

“It’s not a setback,” Steve Nowryta, the Phillies director of the minor leagues, said. “(Mathieson) wanted to get another opinion, and that’s understandable.”

Forgive me for being slightly skeptical of the Phillies PR machine. Mathieson had Tommy John Surgery in September 2006. The normal recovery period is anywhere from 12-18 months. Last summer Mathieson pulled himself out of game after feeling discomfort in the elbow and then had surgery in the offseason to relieve discomfort, which was just a product of the TJ surgery. The team said he’d be fine, but its now almost May, but its now 20 months since he’s had the surgery, and clearly something isn’t right.

The news just keeps getting better. Looks like Big Z might be going under the knife. At least his hamstring should be healed in 12 months when he starts pitching again.

From the new organizational report at BA, courtesy of Jim Salisbury

Mathieson, who was picked in the 17th round of the 2002 draft and made eight starts in the majors in 2006, had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September. The operation was a less serious follow-up to the Tommy John surgery that he had a year earlier.

Mathieson, who turns 24 on Feb. 27, will take part in the full pitching program in spring training but likely will open the season in the minors as he eases into competition. Though he has worked as a starter throughout his career, organization leaders have long believed his power arm could work well in relief. He pitched for Canada at the World Baseball Classic in 2006 and could be a sleeper to contribute out of the bullpen in 2008.

Drabek, a first-rounder in 2006 who was considered by some to have the best arm in that draft, was 5-1, 4.33 at low Class A Lakewood when he began having elbow trouble last May. He had Tommy John surgery in July, and according to farm director Steve Noworyta, “is coming along real well. He’s on schedule, if not a little ahead.”

Drabek is expected to spend most of the season rehabbing in Florida. The Phils would like to see him get on the mound for Rookie-level Gulf Coast League games in August, then be ready to go for instructional league following the 2008 season.

“Even though he’s losing a year, we think he’ll make up that time,” Noworyta said of the 20-year-old Drabek. “Sometimes guys don’t realize what they had until it’s taken away from them. His work ethic has been outstanding. We expect him to come back better than ever.”

Definitely good news on all fronts, though I still think Mathieson has starter potential, it’s a good idea to settle him into the majors as a reliever.

Looks like everyone is hunting for info on Mike Costanzo. Well, thanks for stopping by. Here’s the profile I wrote on him last year. He showed the power was for real, but other flaws still exist.

I did interviews with Keith Law and Bryan Smith, who both talked about Costanzo. I also wrote a piece back in June looking at his struggles against LHP, which you can read here. My readers here voted on our Top 30 prospects, and he ranked 4th

You can also use the search feature on the right side of the page to find mentions of Costanzo here. If you have specific questions, ask away in the comments section of this post and I’ll do my best.

Baseball America got Costanzo’s thoughts on the deal. Clearly he’s disappointed, but he seems motivated by it. Best of luck Mike.

I know you’ll find this site when you search for “Mike Costanzo” and “Michael Bourn”, if you have any questions, feel free to post them in the comments here. To see the bulk of what I’ve written on Costanzo, click here. I did interviews with Keith Law and Bryan Smith of BP who both commented on Costanzo as well. I haven’t written a whole lot about Bourn because he spent all of last year in Philadelphia. Basically, lots of speed, very good defender, good plate discipline for the most part, but virtually no power. Any other questions, post away. Thanks for stopping in.

EDIT: Way back in January, my prediction for Costanzo was

So then, 2007. Mike will open the season, his age 23 season, as the starting 3B at Reading. At 23, he needs to be in AA, and he needs to put up a season in the .820-.860 OPS range to remain a prospect worth watching. It’s certainly not unrealistic to expect a .280/.370/.470 season from him at Reading. Parkwise, Reading plays fairly well for hitters

His actual line was .269/.368/.486……not bad.

Wow. The Phillies traded Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett. Gotta say, I didn’t see that coming. Bourn is the classic case of “can he play every day”, Geary is a fungible middle reliever, and we’ve debated the merits of Costanzo for a while now. I’m not a big believer in Costanzo being an above average regular at the major league level, Bourn I’m a bit more optimistic on. This is clearly a pretty big gamble, but it will allow us to move Myers back to the rotation. Bruntlett is basically a throw in, a slightly more offensively inclined Abe Nunez who can play all of the INF positions.

Again, wow.

Baseball America is rolling out their League Top 20’s, and both Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman made the list at #6 and #14 respectively in the FSL, while Kyle Kendrick and Mike Costanzo made the Easter League Top 20. Check the list here and here. Kendrick’s inclusion has to be an oversight, as he clearly broke the innings limit that BA places on it’s qualified guys.

Carrasco

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

Carrasco’s biggest concern is his consistency. When he begins a game with good stuff, he usually leaves hitters helpless. But when he doesn’t, he has yet to show the savvy to win with less than his best. He tries to overthrow, which results in him leaving vulnerable fastballs up in the strike zone.

He also needs to refine his curveball. Carrasco shows some feel for it and occasionally snaps off a plus bender, but he struggles to locate it.

Outman

With Outman, it’s all about control. He struggles at times to control his fastball, which explains why ranked among the minor league leaders with 77 walks in 159 innings. At times he struggles to control his emotions, which explains why he overthrows and is prone to big innings and bad outings.

But there’s also a lot to like about the lefty, who led the league with a 2.45 ERA and earned a promotion to Double-A. Outman’s fastball sits at 92-94 mph and he pairs it with an 84-87 mph slider. He’s working on a changeup that still has a ways to go.

A good athlete, Outman has reworked his mechanics and developed a more conventional delivery since turning pro. He also has added some deception, as he now hides the ball much longer, and his fastball has picked up some life. One manager who saw him in low Class A in 2006 said has made significant strides since last year

Kendrick

Kendrick never had pitched above Class A prior to 2007, but he entered the postseason as the Phillies’ Game Two starter, and his 3.87 ERA ranked second among their starters. He got started down that path in the EL, as he harnessed his command and stopped trying to pitch up in the strike zone with his fastball and down with his slider.

The athletic Kendrick repeats his delivery, pumps his two-seam sinker to the bottom of the zone and spots his harder, low-90s four-seamer down and away. He also has a hard slider that’s more of a groundball pitch than a strikeout offering. His changeup plays up because he locates it well.

“He realized strikeouts are over-rated,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s pitching at the knees and when he misses, he misses down. He made hitters hit his pitch, because his command was that good. To give up just three home runs, playing in our ballpark, that’s all about executing your pitches, and he did.”

Costanzo

Costanzo finished second to Larish with 27 homers despite a horrific start. For the second straight year, he finished with a flourish, hitting .358 with eight home runs in the final month. He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not surprisingly, I have to disagree with PJ Forbes here. Strikeouts are not overrated, and they are a good indicator of future success. I was mildly surprised that Donald didn’t make the back end of the list on either the SAL or the FSL Top 20, but I guess it’s because BA still doesn’t view him as more than a fringe regular in the majors. So far, our representation looks like this

Joe Savery, #2 NYPL
Dominic Brown, #15 NYPL
Adrian Cardenas, #13 SAL
Carlos Carrasco, #6 FSL
Josh Outman, #14 FSL
Kyle Kendrick, #14 EAS
Mike Costanzo, #19, EAS

Happy Monday to you. If you’ve been following along for a while now, you know that I’m generally critical of the current front office. But even I didn’t think they were capable of screwing up the Paul Owens Award, given to the Phillies minor league hitter and pitcher for the year. But, they did screw it up, again. As announced here (scroll down), the 2007 winners were Mike Zagurski and Quintin Berry. I’d LOVE someone to explain these choices. Berry had a nice season, he elevated his prospect status, but come on. Jason Donald put up better numbers at a higher level at the same age. Mike Costanzo had a huge second half at a higher level. Adrian Cardenas had a better season at the same level at a much younger age. And while Berry seems like a mistake, the Zagurski decision is indefensible, just like it was indefensible to give the award to Robinson Tejeda in the season where he spent a lot of time in the majors. Zagurski put up great numbers in the minors, but spent a good bit of time with the big league club, and he finished the season on the DL. Andrew Carpenter’s season wasn’t better? Josh Outman’s season wasn’t more impressive?

A true head scratcher, but that’s becoming common place for this organization.