Phuture Phillies

We are now just over one month into the season and the Threshers have an 12-20 record so far. Over the last week the team faced the Ft. Myers Miracle for three games, followed by a four-game set with their first Eastern Division opponent of the year, the Brevard County Manatees. The Miracle began the Threshers week by sweeping them to give the Miracle a perfect 9-0 record against the Threshers this year, but the Threshers faired better against the Manatees with a 3-1 series record.

The team began the season with the pitchers leading the team in production, and the hitters lagging way behind. As the season has progressed the hitters have begun to get on track while the pitching has seen their stats fall in the league standings. The offense has the fourth best batting average in the league up from last place after week one, while the pitching has seen their ERA go from third best in the league after week one to the third worst at present.

Despite the good batting average the team has still got room for improvement. They are dead last in the league in all extra base hit categories, and have scored the third fewest runs as a result. On the positive side though, the hitters have the second most walks in the league and the second fewest strikeouts ranking them third in the league in OBP. As for the pitchers the team has the second most strikeouts in the league with 254, but has also allowed the second most walks with 122. Also the team lost their early season ace Antonio Bastardo to the AA Reading Phillies and has seen starter Carlos Monasterios placed on the DL this week. Read the rest of this entry »

The latest hot topic appears to be Zach Segovia moving into a position to make the bullpen out of spring training. The Inquirer makes a brief mention here, citing his most recent impressive outing against the Yankees, and the Daily News talking about his control and composure. This idea seems to really be picking up steam recently, and maybe more because of everyone else’s general state of suckitude rather than Segovia’s complete dominance. As I highlighted in my profile of Zach, pitching out of the pen, at least for now, might be his area of greatest value to the big league club. The overpowering velocity isn’t there, the strikeout numbers aren’t there, but he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, and that’s an important component for any quality reliever.

Quick update on our top Draft and Follow prospect, Rashad Taylor. Through 71 AB, his batting line:

.423/.535/.809,  25R, 4 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 19 BB, 12 K

Hey Pat, please make this guy a quality offer.

Also, a plea to my fellow Phillies fans….don’t panic about Cole Hamels and his spring struggles, he’s going to be fine.

Today’s player profile is a guy I’m having a hard time figuring out, 2002 2nd round pick Zach Segovia. Since being drafted in 2002, Zach has seen his share of ups and downs, including Tommy John surgery in 2004 and what appears to finally be a return to full health in 2006. With much uncertainty surrounding the Phillies bullpen entering the season, his name has been mentioned a few times as a possible candidate. Entering his age 24 season, he’s seen his performance fluctuate wildly, and his ERA hasn’t always matched his peripherals, couple that with his sometimes less than awesome stuff, his possible conditioning issues, and he really is impossible to project.

First, lets take a look at his numbers, season by season, and see if we can figure them out.

2002, GCL: 34.1 IP, 2.10 ERA, 21 H, 3 BB, 30 K

An impressive debut at age 19 for Zach. He kept his hits way down, allowed only 3 walks, and struck out 30. Expectations were obviously high after the strong start.

2003, GCL: 9 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K
2003, Lakewood: 49.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 63 H,  14 BB, 27 K

Clearly something was up here. His hit rate went through the roof, and while his control was still solid, his K rate plummeted. The Phillies knew something was wrong, and sure enough, he had done ligament damage in his right arm and needed Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the entire 2004 season.

2005, Clearwater: 144.2 IP, 5.54 ERA, 168 H, 48 BB, 83 K

At first glance, the ERA is awful, and he allowed a ton of hits with few strikeouts. However, there is a silver lining, that being his great control. With pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery, command and control are normally the last things they regain, but Segovia still displayed great control in his first season back, and maybe more importantly, he pitched 144 innings, showing that his arm was healthy.

2006, Clearwater:  49.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 39 H, 12 BB, 41 K
2006, Reading: 107 IP, 3.11 ERA, 90 H, 24 BB, 75 K

In his second season back, his trademark control again remained intact, but this time, his hit rate jumped right back in line with where it should be, though his K rate was still lagging behind. I like to look at walk rate and strikeout rate separately, as I think K/BB can sometimes be misleading,  but he does average 3 K per BB, which is decent. The other great asset which he has retained is the ability to keep the ball on the ground and not allow home runs. In 394 IP as a pro, he’s allowed only 30 HR, a very respectable number. In 2006, he allowed 10 in 156.1 IP, again not a bad total. Last season he also induced 220 groundballs to only 170 flyballs, a solid ratio for a guy who doesn’t strike out many guys.

So, if we look at his numbers overall, they are pretty decent. His 2005 ERA is bloated, but that’s to be expected for a guy in his first year after Tommy John. Now we have to look at his stuff. Depending on who you talk to, it appears the majority opinion is that he hasn’t regained his pre Tommy John velocity, and two years removed from the surgery, he probably never will. From most scouting reports of him last season, he was consistently in the high 80’s with his fastball, hitting 91 or 92 on occasion. He has at least average secondary offerings, and his stuff plays up a bit because of his excellent control, but it does leave us with a tough time projecting his future.

Command and control guys, or finesse pitchers if you will, have much less room for error than guys with overpowering stuff. Often times, flamethrowers are overrated by scouts, and even despite terrible numbers, are more well thought of as prospects because of the notion that they “might put it all together one day” and become special. However, a larger percentage of these guys never make it, and end up flaming out because of lack of control. On the other side, finesse pitchers who are able to outmaneuver minor league hitters often struggle when they get to the big leagues, mainly because they fall victim to nibbler syndrome, where they try and be too fine and hit corners, end up walking a ton of guys or always end up behind in the count, which results in fat pitches hit to all quadrants of the park. The obvious best solution is a guy with good stuff who also has good control. But those guys don’t grow on trees.

So, where does that leave Zach? Well, I’m not really sure, and in doing my grades and projections, he was a tough guy to figure out. I gave him a solid B grade in my prospect grades, and I feel like he could be a starter at the big league level, but I wrestle with that thought now. His command is obviously good enough to be a starter, his groundball tendencies are there, but is the lack of overpowering stuff going to kill him at the next level? Is he going to be better off as a 7th inning reliever, where he doesn’t have to face a lineup 3 times? As a #5 starter, I think he’d be a fine addition on most teams. On a mediocre team, he might even be the 4th best option. On the worst of teams, he might even be a credible #3 eventually. But on this current Phillies team, he might be better suited to pitching in relief. I think he’s going to spend time at Ottawa this season before he makes it to Philly, unless he’s absolutely lights out the rest of spring training and most of the other candidates in the bullpen implode. I’m not a fan of low strikeout guys pitching in high leverage situations, but with Segovia, I really have no idea what to expect out of him at the next level, so I’ll go with the “never say never” line until we have a better read on him.

Let’s roll right along with the grades.

Jaramillo, Jason, C (age 24): Grade = C+

While Germano was tough to grade, Jaramillo was even tougher. He’s really a tale of two prospects, or at least we thought so prior to Chris Kline’s comments a few weeks ago. Jaramillo was always applauded for his defensive work, but that aspect of his game was called into question in the Arizona Fall League this season. Offensively, he’s league average, almost across the board. League average in the minors isn’t necessarily a good thing, and the fact that he was 23, a college player, at AA and struggling is not a good thing. That said, he had a strong (relatively speaking) season in 2005 at Lakewood, where he had an .806 OPS. The problem is, if he isn’t a strong defensive catcher, he’ll never be more than a backup. I’m willing to give it a season before making the final judgement on his defensive abilities.

Ceiling:  If his AFL defense was just a hiccup and his defense is still strong, his ceiling is probably Yadier Molina. Molina is basically a .675 OPS guy with a rocket arm and great game calling skills. Right now, it doesn’t look like Jaramillo will hit much more than that at the big league level, but if his defense is what we thought prior to the last few months, he can be an everyday catcher at the big league level, especially in an organization that is devoid of blue chip catching prospects, and especially since the organization is apparently anti-Carlos Ruiz.

Floor: His floor is, unfortunately, as a AAA career catcher. You’d think he’s the type of guy who’ll get a shot either way, simply because of how poor the catching position really is across baseball, but if his defense is simply average, no team will carry him as a starter, and most teams probably won’t look at him as even a reliable backup.

Conclusion: My conclusion is, 2007 will tell us a lot about Jaramillo going forward. Up until the report on his defense in the AFL, I was fairly sure he’d be able to reach his ceiling, but now I’m not so sure. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a .280/.350/.450 guy at the big league level, but not many catchers are. But, the key is his defense. If he’s strong defensively, he can hit .250/.320/.400 and be tucked away in the 8th spot, as long as he’s throwing out 35% of base runners and handling the young pitchers well. Right now, I’d say he’s got a 65% chance of reaching his ceiling. I think there’s a better chance his defense is for real than not, but I want to see for sure in 2007. I think he’s got an 85% chance of his hitting his floor at worst, meaning a 15% chance his just out of baseball in 4 years. Again, it all hinges on defense. If his defense collapses, so too will his baseball career, but if the strong arm remains, he’ll probably hang around AAA/MLB for a while. Hey, if Todd Pratt can, why can’t Jason?

Bourn, Michael, OF (age 24) Grade = B-

I tossed around the idea of giving Bourn a C+, then when looking at his numbers again, actually tossed around the idea of giving him a straight B. So the only logical thing to do was go right in the middle and just live with it. His age 23 season was a tale of two seasons, as he put up a fairly pedestrian .715 OPS at Reading but then responded with a .796 OPS at Scranton. We know a few things about Bourn: He is never going to hit for power of any kind, he’s fast, and he has above average plate discipline, the degree of the latter is the biggest question mark going forward. In the low minors, his plate discipline was fantastic, but as he’s climbed the ladder, it’s become merely a tick or two above average. By all accounts, he’s a fine center fielder and his speed would be even better utilized at a corner spot, but he’ll never hit enough there to warrant his defense. The one constant in his game has been his ability to steal bases at a high percentage, and if used properly, he’ll always have a use at the major league level. The problem is, and I’m sure this is something the Phillies consider a lot, he’s been inconsistent offensively, and I’m not sure anyone really knows what to expect out of him next. His AA production probably didn’t merit the jump to AAA, but when he was promoted, he actually elevated his game. At the plate, he’s probably a C+ prospect, on the weight of his ability to get on base. On the bases, he’s an A- prospect, but that doesn’t carry nearly the weight of his bat. In the field, he’s a B+ fielder, but again, his usefulness, as an everyday player at least, will only come in CF. Add it all up, and he receives a B- from me.

Ceiling: The most common comparison I see to Bourn made by others is Juan Pierre, but I disagree there. All of Pierre’s success is tied to his batting average, and he never has been one to draw lots of walks or strike out much, while Bourn does plenty of both. I think a better parallel is Luis Castillo, with a lot more strikeouts and in CF, not 2B. If he turns into a Castillo-esque player in CF, he can be an everyday leadoff hitter as long as his defense allows him to stay in CF, hitting around .275/.375/.375, stealing 45-50 bases a year with a 75-80% success rate.

Floor:  One of the reasons I gave him a B- and not a C+ is that I think he’s going to be major leaguer for the next 10 years. That said, if his OB% doesn’t stay in the .360-.380 range at the highest level, he’ll be nothing more than a 5th OF who is used to pinch run and play late inning defense. Every team needs a guy like that, especially with a turtle like Pat Burrell in the OF.

Conclusion:  Bourn was the easiest of the three guys I graded so far. We know his strengths, we know his weaknesses, it’s just a matter of seeing what he does in 2007 to figure out if he’s going to be closer to his ceiling or his floor. With Rowand and Victorino, both on the right side of 30, there’s no need to rush Bourn into a starting role. He was skipped over Clearwater, but now has 1000+ AB at AA and above, so he’s gotten his time in. If he makes the club as the 5th OF, he could be the first choice to fill in at CF if something were to happen to Rowand, and who knows, he might not give the spot back, or he may flop and return to his 5th OF spot. Or, the Phillies could choose to send him to Ottawa to start the season and wait to make a decision on him till closer to next season, depending on what happens near the trade deadline. Right now, I’d say he’s about 60% chance to reach his ceiling, and has an 80% chance to reach his floor, with a 20% chance he’s never more than a AAAA player. His speed and defense mean, barring some disaster, that he’ll always have a use at the major league level for some team. If a guy like Joey Gathright, who can’t hit at all, is kept at the big league level and given somewhat regular AB’s because of his speed, Bourn will get there too.

Happ, James, LHP (age 24) Grade = B+

Happ was close, really close, to getting an A-, but what held him back is his walk rate. Right now, it’s not a problem, but it wasn’t a strength at AA, so I’m going to hold off on giving him an A- for now. He has developed the reputation as the typical soft tossing lefty, but he’s added 3-4 mph to an already good fastball, and now sits in the 91-93 range, which is quite solid for a LHP. His changeup is an above average pitch, his breaking ball probably average, but has potential and should improve. He was great at high A Clearwater, and even better at AA Reading, striking out 158 in 154 innings. He did all of his work at age 23 this season, so while his A+ numbers take a bit of a knock as he was on the high end of prospect age for the FSL, his performance at AA was right in line, age-wise. His hit rate was about 15% above average at Reading, his K rate over 25% above average, but his walk rate was about 5% below average at AA after being well above average at A+. That drop off probably isn’t uncommon, but I’m going to wait and see what he responds with at AAA Ottawa. Looking at his three true outcomes, he passes with flying colors in regards to his K rate, he’s just fine in his HR rate, and his walk rate is still a tick or two above average overall. His control was merely average in 2004 and 2005, so we’ll see where he ends up there in 2007 before giving him an A- or straight A. At this point, with the injury to Mathieson, he’s the closest to a “sure thing” in terms of making the big leagues and contributing, at some level.

Ceiling: I’m not going to make Tom Glavine comparisons, those serve no purpose. If his walk rate ends up in the 2.65-2.80 range at the MLB level, and he can maintain a K rate in the neighborhood of 7.50-8.00 at the highest level, his ceiling is as a #2 pitcher. That may seem like a big thing to say, considering he hasn’t torn up most prospect charts, but at some point, you have to look at a guy’s numbers and stop worrying about how “dynamic” his stuff is. Happ has a good pitcher’s body, he has a deceptive delivery, and he now has above average velocity, along with good secondary pitches and the makings of a real good changeup. While his chances of becoming a #2 aren’t as good as, say, Cole Hamels or a guy with electric stuff, he’s put up the results so far at every level, and that has to be taken into account.

Floor:  I’m setting his floor as a #5 starter. I really don’t see a need for him to move to the bullpen at any point. He was a good pitcher in college, and he’s been a really good starter during his entire pro career. The only way he’ll be forced to the pen, in my opinion, is if he can’t stay healthy. In 2005, that was sort of the case, but he was just fine in 2006. If his secondary pitches only become average, his strong groundball tendencies and his fastball should allow him to be a back of the rotation guy, capable of pitching 180 innings of 4.35-4.60 ball. On most every team, that’s good enough for the #5 spot.

Conclusion:  In 2006, Happ became one of my favorite prospects. He’s a tireless worker, he understands HOW to pitch, and his stuff is now catching up to his aptitude. If his new-found velocity stays and he can consistently work at 91 while ramping it up to 93, he’s Cole Hamels with a changeup a notch lower. That’s huge praise, and of course he may flame out or just become a below average major leaguer, but I think the tools are there. He handled AA with ease at age 23, and will probably start at Ottawa, his age 24 season. If he mows down AAA, which based on the level of talent between AA and AAA, he probably should, he’ll more than likely get a shot to start 2008 in the big league rotation. I put his odds of reaching his ceiling at 40%, because frankly, there aren’t a lot of guys you can pencil in as “bona-fide #2 starters” on a Championship caliber team, but Happ could very well surprise a ton of people. I’m giving him a 95% chance at hitting his floor, with only a 5% chance of him not making it in the bigs at some level. This kid is for real, and I think we’ll see that in the next year.

Segovia, Zach, RHP (age 23/24 in April) Grade = B

I struggled with this one too, as part of me thinks Zach should also be a B+ prospect, but kind of like Germano yesterday, I’m worried about the strikeout rate. I hate to harp on it, but the ability to get swings and misses is a huge indicator going forward. Segovia, who had Tommy John surgery in 2004, appears all the way back. His command is generally outstanding, as seen in his 2.02 BB/9 rate at AA Reading in 2006. Most pitchers struggle with control the season after TJ surgery, but Segovia “struggled” to a 2.99 BB/9 rate in 2005 while recovering, which really speaks to his outstanding ability to locate his pitches. He’s another guy with strong groundball tendencies, and he allowed only 10 HR in 156 innings this season. The problem is, again, trying to figure out how many guys he’ll strike out as he rises the pyramid and eventually reaches the majors. His hit rate has been fine, about 15% above league average across the two levels in 2006, so he’s getting his outs, but you have to think that number will drop at the major league level. He’s been better than 50% above league average in terms of walks allowed, and not to beat a dead horse, but that’s fantastic. He had a 7.48 K/9 rate at Clearwater, and it dipped to 6.31 K/9 at AA. Now here’s the thing. 6.31 is about average at the MLB level for qualified starting pitchers, ie, guys that throw 160+ innings a year. If he averages 6.3 K/9 at the MLB level, I have no doubts he can be a solid SP. The problem is, 6.3 K/9 at AA doesn’t translate to 6.3 K/9 at the MLB level. If he dips down to the 5.0 range, he’s going to be tough to project and tough to count on. As he doesn’t turn 24 till April, he’s right in line with where he should be, which will more than likely be AAA. He may be the first call up (other than Happ) in the event of an injury in Philly.

Ceiling:  As with all groundball pitchers, it’s really tough to say. The easy comp for groundball guys is Chien-Ming Wang, but Wang has a 93-95 mph fastball, I’m not sure Segovia is quite there. Wang’s peripherals in the minors compare very similar to Segovia: 2.04 BB/9, 7.06 K/9, 0.46 HR/9. The difference, though, is that Wang doesn’t just have GB tendencies, he’s a maniac, getting over 3 groundballs to every fly ball. Segovia only generated 1.7 GB to every FB. So, I think we have to aim a little lower. I’d say a safer bet, when considering his ceiling, is as a solid #4 starter, capable of 200 innings, and anywhere from a 3.90 to 4.50 ERA, depending on how good his defense is behind him.

Floor:  A 7th inning reliever in the Geoff Geary mold. If he can’t strike guys out and doesn’t develop the violent sinker of C-M Wang, he certainly appears capable of developing into a reliable 7th inning guy. He’s better against RHB, but lefties didn’t kill him, so it’s not as if he’s ticketed for the ROOGY role. His hard sinker could serve him well against both, and if his changeup jumps up a grade on the scale and becomes a solid above average pitch, he may even look at setup man duties as a possibility. Low K guys in the late innings are scary, but Segovia seems like a quality competitor.

Conclusion:  The future for Zach is good, regardless of the role he’s going to play. Like I said above, it’s going to come down to his ability to either A) improve his strikeout rate or B) Get even more groundballs than he does now. If his ratio is, say, 2 or 2.3 to 1, he can be the middle of the rotation starter, probably a capable #3 on most teams, and a #4 on the best teams. If the K’s don’t come, there’s no reason he can’t be a capable 5th starter or a middle to late inning reliever. His conditioning could be an issue, he’s a big boy, but we’ll wait and see on that. With a strong 2007 at AAA, he’ll be in line for a big league job in 2008, and he could see a jump to a B+ prospect in my book…..which I’m sure is his top priority. I put his chances of reaching his ceiling at 55%, his chances of hitting his floor at 90%, meaning basically, I see him as a major leaguer a year from now in some form.

Only 4.5 years late, right? Well, not really, this is just another idea I came up with. It’s my firm belief (I’m sure it won’t be a shock, considering I’m running this site) that the best way to build your team is from within, and then supplement your homegrown core with talent from the outside in areas where you are weak. Many teams have done this (Cleveland, most recently) and the benefits are two fold. First, the cheapest talent is the kind you draft (or sign internationally) because you don’t have to give up anything (other than money) to acquire these players. Second, you have control of these players for 6+ years, which many times will take a player close to the peak of his production level. Now, before we go further, a quick qualifier. A strong farm system and a strong core of youth doesn’t always translate into wins. Cleveland, the example I gave above, has developed a really strong core of young players (Sizemore, Perralta, Lee, Martinez) but they struggled in 2006, though there is good reason to believe they were unlucky. However, the actual results of the team at the major league level is the last step of the process. As Phillies fans can see, with the likes of Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell, a strong young core sets your team up for years down the road, you just need a competent general manager to add the right complimentary pieces. Mark Shapiro might have failed there in Cleveland, or they might have just been unlucky.

So, that brings us to today’s essay. Players taken in the 2002 draft have now been in the Phillies system for 5 seasons (really 4.5, since players taken in June 2002 only had a half year, if they signed right away) so we can start to draw some conclusions about the draft and what might have been. I’m not looking for an avenue to bash our former GM Mr. Wade, because I really don’t know how much impact he had, many GM’s trust their scouting directors and their scouts, and just deal with issues like going above slot or avoiding a guy they perceive as a big injury risk. So, when reading my grades, consider them a grade of the entire Phillies drafting machine, not just one guy.

Here’s the way I’ll lay this out. I’ll break down the first 10 rounds of the draft, and then after that, just discuss the next ten picks together in shorter form, and do that until the final pick. I’m going to use a grading school similar to the 4.0 college grading system:

A = 4.0
A- = 3.5
B+ = 3.25
B = 3.00
B- = 2.75
C+ = 2.50
C = 2.00
C- = 1.75
D+ = 1.50
D = 1.25
D- = 1.00

For the first 10 rounds, I’ll give each pick a grade, then I’ll grade rounds 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, and 41-50 as a whole, with the letter grade above. Add then scores together, divide by 14, and we’ll have the final draft grade. Sounds like fun, huh? My criteria for determining the grade of each pick/round is pretty simple. 60% comes from the player’s performance. Did the guy perform well in the system? Was he a flop from the get go? Was he strong early and then struggled? 35% will come from the longevity of the player. Is he still in the system? Is he still in pro ball? Did he wash out after 1 year? If you’re drafting guys who play 1 season then quit baseball, you’re squandering resources. Maybe you can’t know that before hand, but that’s why you do your homework on these guys, and that’s why area scouts and crosscheckers get paid to watch high school kids play. The final 5% will come from the guys taken after the pick, and before the next Phillies pick, and basically any other wildcard criteria I choose to use. Did the Phillies pass up a kid who became a future star to draft someone who flopped? Again, maybe that was bad luck, but someone has to be accountable and this is my grading system, so they can deal with it! Ok, I got carried away there. Basically, this is just going to be a fun exercise for me, my grades really don’t mean anything, it’s just a fun way to look at the draft in more detail. The deeper the pick, the lower the expectations. In other words, if the Phillies get a major league contributor in the 25th round, they’ll be rewarded for it. Without further delay, let’s begin

1.17: Cole Hamels, LHP. How’s this for a start to your draft? Hamels’ history is well known, but for those who are a bit foggy, here’s how it happened. Hamels broke his arm his junior year of high school, and because of it, his draft stock dropped. He was considered a top 5-10 pick before the injury, and was considered very advanced for his age with much more polish than most high schoolers, and an already established changeup. When he broke his arm, despite a good senior year, he dropped in the first round and the Phillies gambled. The pick was questioned almost immediately, but the Phillies stood firm. Hamels, when actually on the field, was brilliant at every level and showed people why the Phillies were so in love with him. Hamels’ minor league numbers were video game like, but he was bogged down every season by a number of medical maladies until finally staying healthy (for the most part) in 2006. He pitched 181.1 innings in 2006 across 4 levels after having thrown a total of 152 innings from 2003-2005. After a slow start at the big league level, he turned it up a few notches and finished the season strong, posting a tremendous 9.86 K/9 rate and a solid 1.25 WHIP. Looking back, this was a huge gamble, and though people doubted the pick even mid way through May 2006, it looks like Hamels has proven worthy. Grade: A- The only reason it’s not a straight A is because Hamels still does have some injury/durability concerns, but if 2007 is a repeat of 2006, healthwise, this becomes an A.

2.17: Zach Segovia, RHP. Segovia was dominant in high school, including an astouding 150 strikeouts in 77.2 innings pitched his senior year. He already had a large, strong body build, a plus fastball and a plus slider, so the Phillies felt he had a decent amount of polish for a high school player. He had a scholarship to Florida but signed with the Phillies and was sent to the GCL. He started well, he performed well at Lakewood in 2003, and then he hit a common (at least it’s becoming) roadblock, in needing Tommy John surgery. The surgery has become common that it now isn’t looked at as a probable career ender, and some pitchers even thrive moreso after surgery. Segovia missed all of 2004 and was assigned to Clearwater in 2005. He struggled, but many attribute this simply to trying to rebuild arm strength and shake off the rust. He re-established himself in 2006, and all the qualities the Phillies liked about him pre draft came back to the forefront. He still projects as a back of the rotation starter/7th inning reliever, and his odds of making the big leagues and contributing is pretty good right now. His grade gets dropped 1 level because the Phillies had the chance to draft Brian McCann, who could be a cornerstone piece of the core, but chose a pitcher in this slot. There weren’t too many other options between this pick and the third round pick, so only one grade drop. Grade: B This was a good pick at the time, because Segovia flat out dominated in high school and had all the makings of a top flight pitcher. His role is still a bit cloudy, so he doesn’t get a B+ just yet.

3.17: Kiel Fisher, 3B Houston, we have a problem! The Phillies, to their credit, forsaw the Scott Rolen exodus and decided to try and fill the void by drafting multiple third baseman in hopes of adding some dynamic talent at a position they knew was weak across the board within the system. Fisher was a solid high school bat, he had great raw tools, the Phillies loved his swing, etc etc. Well, Fisher struggled from the get-go, and was forced to repeat the GCL in 2003, which isn’t a good sign early in your career, but isn’t the end of the world. In his second trip through the GCL, he lit it up with a .908 OPS, and was promoted to Batavia, where he put up a solid .874 OPS in 96 AB’s to cap the 2003 season. Things were looking good…..then trouble hit. Fisher sustained a lower back injury that required surgery, and he subsequently missed the entire 2004 season. Lower back injuries for position players (and anyone really) are bad news. Fisher came back in 2005 and spent the entire year at Lakewood. Unfortunatey he hit just .173 with a .443 OPS in 98 AB, and that proved to be his last action in professional ball. Grade: C-. Honestly, I think I’m being generous here. The Phillies drafted Fisher here based on need rather than raw talent, and I can’t say I agree with that philosophy so early in a draft. Between this pick and their 4th round pick, pitchers Rich Hill and Josh Johnson were picked, and both have huge upside, with both already showing flashes of brilliance in 2006, not to mention Jeff Baker, who at the time, was still playing third base, though he has since moved to the outfield in Colorado.

4.17: Nick Bourgeois, LHP. One word sums up this pick for me. Blech. The Phillies, in prior years, had kind of neglected left handed pitchers, but seemed to have a knack for plucking good right handers (Myers, Madson come to mind), but in 2002 they tried to focus more on lefties. Bourgeois was drafted out of Tulane as a junior, but his numbers were fairly unimpressive, even in his junior year, where he posted a 3.29 ERA with an 8.92 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9. The strikeouts were nice, the walks not so much. The Phillies, upon drafting Bourgeois, said they didn’t think he had top of the rotation stuff, but could be a good #4 or #5 starter. He didn’t have a ton of velocity (87-88, topped out around 90), but had a good 12-6 curveball. To me, at this point, this just seemed like a bad pick. The Phillies were admitting he didn’t have impact potential, he was already tabbed for the back of the rotation (normally you start with higher goals and end up here) and to me, in the 4th round, you have to do better. After being drafted, he went to Batavia and was fairly unimpressive in only 18 innings. Nevertheless, he was sent to Lakewood in 2003. The strikeouts were still there (8.84/9) but unforunately, the walks were there too (4.99/9) and the end result, a 4.42 ERA, was not good for a college age pitcher at Low A. Again, the Phillies promoted him in 2004, this time to Clearwater. The results were similar, but actually got worse, with a lower K rate (7.25/9) and a higher walk rate (5.09), with an ERA of 4.94. The result? He was released and picked up by Seattle. He struggled in 2005 for Seattle, and hasn’t pitched in pro ball since. Grade: D- I think my reasons are clear here. Low ceiling pick, poor results, out of the org in just 2.5 seasons. Not good at all. While the bluechippers aren’t plentiful in round 4, the Phillies had the chance to grab Delwyn Young, a solid 2B in the Dodgers org, as well as Hayden Penn, one of the better pitching prospects in the Orioles system, who went early in the 5th round.

5.17: Jake Blalock, 3B. Ah, Jake Blalock. This pick was the follow up to Operation Third Baseman that I talked about earlier with the Fisher pick. Blalock played shortstop in high school, but was drafted as a 3B mainly because of his size, with some feeling he’d outgrown the position. His biggest strength was his baseball pedigree, being the younger brother of Hank Blalock, a quality hitting prospect for the Rangers at the time, and the son of a baseball coach, Sam Blalock. The Phillies liked his physical tools and felt he could play 3rd, 1st, or RF, possibly even catcher. He had a scholarship to Arizona State, but opted to sign and was sent to the GCL. At this point, it looked like a solid pick. At the time, I felt he was a good value in the 5th round. He had position versatility, he had a lot of potential, but like every high school guy, he was a long way away. His first two seasons followed the normal path, that is GCL to Batavia, and the results (.669 OPS and .767 OPS) were less than inspiring. However, because of his youth and tools package, hope still remained. However, in 2004, it became clear that Blalock’s future would be in the outfield, which reduced his value somewhat, as his bat would be his main contribution. His 2004 was good, not great, with a .799 OPS at Lakewood…average on base (.350) and decent slugging % (.449), but you were kind of expecting more, especially now that he was playing the outfield. 2005, things took a turn in the wrong direction as he put up a .747 OPS at Clearwater. The plate discipline was still there (.359), but the power was completely gone (.388 slugging), and that was a big problem. Light hitting outfielders only survive if they play lights out defense (normally center field, Jake was always corner bound) or they steal a ton of bases (he stole 28 bases total from 2003-2005) so he was in trouble. Blalock was traded along with Rob Tejeda to Texas for Dave Dellucci right before the beginning of the 2006 season, and may have sealed his fate with a .711 OPS at doube A Frisco. I haven’t read up on his future, but I’d guess 2007 will be his last shot, or 2006 might have been it. Grade: B- Maybe I’m being generous here. Blalock looked real good as a high school prospect. Good background, good tools, high baseball IQ. Unfortunately, he just didn’t make it work. Grade drops to B- because two quality arms, John Maine and Scott Olsen, were taken in the 6th round before the Phillies next pick, though admittedly, a position player was probably needed here.

This concludes Part 1. Let’s do a quick recap:

Hamels: A-
Segovia: B
Fisher: C-
Bourgeois: D-
Blalock: B-

GPA: 2.4. That’s around the B- range. Part 2 will come either later today or tomorrow. If you have quibbles with my grades, let me know, if you make a convincing argument, you just might help Eddie Wade make the honor roll.

It’s that time of the year where every site is churning out their top 10 prospect lists, so I figured I’d make my first “real” post my top 10, and also give predictions for their respective 2007’s. So, without further delay, here’s my list.

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP. Carrasco had his breakout season in 2006, dominating the Low A Sally League at age 19. His peripheral stats were largely outstanding; 5.82 H/9, 3.67 BB/9, 8.98 K/9 and 0.34 HR/9. The only yellow flag (not serious enough for red) is his walk rate. Various scouting reports have said that his secondary pitches come and go, which is not that uncommon for a 19 year old. Carrasco has fluid, easy mechanics which bode well for his future health. Possibly the most impressive thing he has going for him is feel for his changeup. Changeup control is normally one of the last things a pitcher masters, but Carlos seems to have that down, he just needs to be consistent with his curve. After a tough 2005, which saw him bounce between Lakewood and Batavia, he opened just about everyone’s eyes. My guess is the Phillies will be cautious with him, since he only has one season of pro ball under his belt. He’ll more than likely start at Clearwater, and could possibly move to Reading by mid summer if he gets off to a fast start. Prediction: 163 IP, 7.50 H/9, 3.35 BB/9, 9.50 K/9, 0.65 HR
2. Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B. I’ll state this now to get it out of the way…..I might just be Adrian Cardenas fan #1, so keep that in mind as you read my writeup. The Phillies have a long history of drafting “toolsy” guys who can’t hit, with the hope of teaching them how to actually play baseball later. This method seems to fail much more than succeed, yet the Phillies (and other teams), continue to go this route in the draft. Think of it like playing a slot machine. You know the odds are bad, but it’s so much fun! Well, Cardenas bucks this trend, and I couldn’t be happier. Cardenas won the Baseball America High School POY this year, and he didn’t stop upon his arrival in pro ball. He put up a solid .318/.384/.442 line in the GCL, facing mostly high school pitchers. While Cardenas doesn’t fit the “toolsy” background of your typical Phillies draft pick, he has solid baseball skills, with an advanced approach to hitting and good overall baseball instincts. He played shortstop in high school, and might stay there for a few seasons, but most think he’ll end up at 2B. If he continues to hit as he climbs the organizational ladder, he’ll be above average offensively, which should offset his defensive limitations. Prediction: (A-), .312/.415/.475, 13 HR, 25 2B, 10 SB
3. James Happ, LHP. Many prospect ranking folks have different philosophies when it comes to weighing numbers and tools. Some go 50/50, some 70/30 or some combo in between. Happ is an interesting case, and maybe I’m being too kind, but maybe not. Happ is a tall, lanky pitcher (6′5, 205 lbs) but doesn’t throw very hard, with his fastball topping out around 91, and consistently hitting 88-90. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in command, which is evident in his 2.80 BB/9 rate between A+ and AA in 2006. Though he lacks “dominant stuff”, Happ was able to generate quite a few swings and misses, 9.22 K/9, over both levels, and even more importantly, he kept the ball in the park, allowing only 11 HR in 154.2 IP, including only 2 in 74.2 IP at double A Reading. While Happ doesn’t offer much in the way of projectability, as he’s already 23 and doesn’t look to add more velocity, he does have a good feel for pitching. Normally AA is the biggest test for a pitcher, and Happ passed his first test, posting better numbers across the board at Reading than in Clearwater. You hate comparing a non-flaming throwing lefty to Tom Glavine, but if Happ can mantain his command as he climbs the ladder, he can become a reliable middle of the rotation starter. Prediction: (AAA), 105 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.15 BB/9, 9.25 K/9, 0.45 HR/9 (MLB), 50 IP, 4.15 ERA, 3.65 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.15 HR/9
4. Kyle Drabek, RHP. Consider Mr Drabek the anti-JA Happ. Much was made of Drabek’s off the field issues leading up to the draft, but few doubted his ability on the field. Drabek dominated on the mound in high school, pitching in the baseball hotbed of Texas, and led his team, The Woodlands, to numerous championships, both with his arm and bat. Drabek’s number one asset might just be his athletic ability, as he was one of the top rated shortstops in the 2006 draft, as well as the second rated high school arm behind Clayton Kershaw. He dropped to the Phillies because of the aforementioned off the field concerns, but the Phillies felt he was worth the risk. His pro debut was less than ideal, but has been attributed to things ranging from immaturity to a heavy high school workload. Drabek went to the Florida Instructional League with fellow draftee Dan Brauer, and reports were that he responded well to the regiments involved with playing professional baseball. Prediction: (SS) 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 4.15 BB/9, 10.50 K/9, 1.00 HR/9, (A-) 35.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.00 BB/9, 7.75 K/9, 1.25 HR/9
5. D’Arby Myers, OF. Myers fits the mold of the toolsy guys the Phillies love, and as you can probably figure out from my previous comments, I was skeptical upon his selection, as I am with all outfielders like him. In the 4th round, I felt like it was too early to start “buying lottery tickets”, but I think the Phillies might have picked a winner here. Myers played the entire GCL season at the age of 17, and had arguably the most impressive debut of any Phillies draftee, putting up a line of .313/.353/.430. That may not seem significant, but for a guy with very raw baseball skills, at a very young age, it’s quite an accomplishment. Myers oozes potential and projection, with plus speed, potential for plus power, and a good arm. He still needs to “learn” the more advanced baseball skills like route running and pitch selection at the plate, but his debut showed that he might be further along in this process than most toolsy guys. Myers did a good job of keeping the ball out of the air and using his speed to his advantage. He was 11/15 in SB’s, which again, is quite solid for a guy just learning how to play the game. The Phillies could challenge him by assigning him to Lakewood, meaning he’d be one of the youngest players in the league, but he might start at short season Williamsport. I’ll do two predictions for him, one assuming he starts at Williamsport, one assuming he starts at Lakewood. Prediction 1: (SS), .325/.375/.450, (A-) .280/.340/.400 Prediction 2: (A-) .270/.335/.425, 30 SB
6. Josh Outman, LHP. Outman, in addition to having one of the best baseball names possible, looks like one of the Phillies best picks in the 2005 draft. His 2005 debut was good, if not above average, and his 2006 saw an improvement in just about every peripheral category. His walk rate still needs some work (4.35 BB/9), but his K rate (9.33/9) and HR rate (0.29/9) were both well above average. Outman is slightly old for low A, but the Phillies apparently wanted to keep the core of the team together as they made a playoff push, which means Outman is a candidate for a double jump to Reading in 2007. He possesses above average velocity for a lefty, hitting 94 and working around 91-92 consistently. His changeup lags behind his fastball and slider, but is improving. Outman’s overall line, 155.2 IP, 6.89 H/9, 4.35 BB/9, 9.33 K/9, 0.29 HR/9 is impressive, but his line from July-September is even more impressive, at 72.2 IP, 5.73 H/9, 3.61 BB/9, 9.97 K/9, 0.25 HR/9. If he continues to improve his control, he will quickly move up the prospect lists. The Phillies should challenge him with a double jump since he is a college pitcher and is 22. Prediction: (AA), 163 IP, 3.00 ERA, 7.45 H/9, 3.75 BB/9, 8.85 K/9, 0.65 HR/9
7. Edgar Garcia, RHP. Garcia was highly touted when he signed in 2004 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic. At 6′2, 190lbs, he has room for projection, and already throws in the low 90’s. While he was at the forefront of prospect chatter in 2004 and 2005, he seemed to fade out of the limelight a bit in 2006, yet he continued to produce on the field, putting up a line of 66.1 IP, 8.41 H/9, 1.36 BB/9, 6.24 K/9, 0.68 HR/9 at Batavia. Many people point to his low K rate as a red flag, but in this writer’s opinion, that criticism is a tad overrated. Garcia has outstanding control and feel for his changeup, which as previously stated, is rare for young, raw pitchers. Garcia allowed only 18 extra base hits (13 2B and 5 HR) in 66.1 IP, good for a .369 slugging against. He also induced 87 groundballs, as opposed to 69 flyballs, and also induced 20 pop ups. This data would lead you to believe guys aren’t getting good swings against Garcia. He was equally tough on lefties and righties, and allowed only 1 HR to lefthanded batters, which speaks to the strength of his changeup. Garcia is underrated on other prospect lists, in my opinion, and has the potential to put up a solid season in the Sally League in 2007 at age 19. Prediction: (A-), 150 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.90 BB/9, 7.00 K/9, 0.85 HR/9
8. Scott Mathieson, RHP. Mathieson underwent Tommy John surgery in November, which is one of the main reasons he slid down the list a bit. If 100% healthy, he’d probably rank 5th on my list. Mathieson throws a mid 90’s fastball, but it lacks movement, which means he needs to command it in the zone to be effective. His changeup is average, and he’s worked with both a curve and a slider, eventually settling on a slider. While he was able to dominate minor league hitters with his offspeed stuff, he didn’t experience the same success at the big league level. Throughout his minor league career, his control improved at every level, but when he jumped to Philly, he saw all of his peripherals take a hit, which isn’t a surprise. He will miss all of 2007 and could make it back in time for the Arizona Fall League next year, but more likely won’t pitch until spring training 2008. Mathieson is still a prospect, but he will remain outside of the top 5 until we see what he looks like post surgery. If he adds velocity, like many TJ survivors do, he could consistently throw 95-96 and hit 98. If that’s the case, he profiles as a middle of the rotation starter or potential closer. He will be 23 this year in spring training, which puts him at 24 when he is recovered from surgery, and he’ll more than likely start in AAA and be the first callup, or he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in spring training. Prediction: Won’t pitch in 2007.
9. Jason Jaramillo, C. I’ll qualify this selection, and the #10 selection, by saying that the difference between my 9th and 13th ranked prospects on this list is real small, and most guys are interchangeable. Jaramillo’s offense has been suspect, and he struggled at AA Reading in 2006, putting up a .708 OPS in his age 23 season. Jaramillo raked in college, with a .900+ OPS, but has struggled since reaching full season ball in 2005. While his bat won’t get him to the big leagues, his glove and presence behind the plate probably will. Scouts rave about his game calling ability and his arm strength, and that’s where his future lies. Catcher is not a notoriously big offensive position, but the Phillies also appear to have little patience when it comes to rookie catchers, though the organization does appear to be high on Jaramillo’s future. As a starting catcher, he probably won’t hit more than .250/.330/.450, but if he’s hit 8th in the lineup and his strong defensive presence carries over, he’ll have a fine major league career. Prediction: (AAA), .260/.350/.445, 13 HR
10. Andrew Carpenter, RHP. Carpenter flew under the radar after being drafted, as his debut was delayed until the end of the summer, possibly because of his heavy college workload. Carpenter doesn’t possess outstanding stuff, with just a 91-94 mph fastball, average change and average curve, but he has superb command (1.53 BB/9 in college) and his K rate is good enough (7.57 in college), while his home run suppression looks just fine, at 0.31 HR/9 in college. He only pitched 11.2 innings at Batavia, so it’s tough to draw any real conclusions there, but he allowed only 1 ER in his 3 short starts. As a 3 year senior, Carpenter figures to move quickly through the system. He’ll likely start at Lakewood, but could possibly start at Clearwater and reach Reading by mid summer. For my prediction, I’ll assume he starts at Lakewood. Prediction: (A-), 65.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 3.10 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, (AA), 75.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 2.90 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 0.85 HR/9

11-15, brief blurbs: