Phuture Phillies

Here’s a snippet from a Baseball America AFL report today

Numbers aside, Overholt is a reliever. His stuff tended to flatten out, often after just three innings in Double-A in a starting role. And while his slider is viewed by many in the organization to be the best in the system, it wasn’t impressive Tuesday.

“I didn’t see enough of it today to say it was a good slider,” said one scout from a National League club. “He didn’t throw it enough to really say if it was good or bad, but the ones he did throw were fringy.

“I wound up comparing him to (Nationals closer) Chad Cordero after seeing him today as not being a real velocity guy, but a guy who has a heavy ball with some arm side sink that comes right at you. But I didn’t see a guy who would be a go-to guy coming out of your bullpen. He’s not that kind of a Cordero, but his ball is really heavy. I didn’t see that kind of stuff from him with the breaking ball, but he’s got good sink (with the fastball) at times.”

A 2005 22nd-round pick out of Santa Clara, Overholt had never started in pro ball until this season.

“It seems like he could be good in short spurts with a two-pitch mix,” said another NL scout. “But he shouldn’t mess with more than that.”

I liked Overholt heading into last season as a reliever, the Phillies chose to start him, and it looks like it may have set his ETA back a year. I noted his great groundball tendencies when he was on top of his game, and that is confirmed by the scout who noted the “heavy ball” he throws. Overholt is a possible 6/7th inning guy at this point, but probably not until mid 2008 or later.

Pat Overholt started last season as a reliever, and pitched decently well, piling up the strikeouts at Lakewood and Clearwater. This season he was converted into a starter, eventually making it to Reading. His numbers

2006, A- : 45.2 IP,  37 H, 26 BB, 52 K
2006, A+ : 26.1 IP, 20 H, 10 BB, 41 K

Then as a starter

2007, A+ : 73.0 IP, 67 H, 30 BB, 56 K
2007, 2A: 77.1 IP, 85 H, 38 BB, 50 K

So, what role do you see Overholt taking in 2008, will he start back in AA? Have your say below.

It’s been a few weeks since my last Threshers update, so I figured I’d better get on the ball.  The Threshers finished the first half of the year in third place behind first-half champs the Sarasota Reds and the Tampa Yankees.  In the second half of the season the boys have been cruising along right where thay left off.  They currently sit in third one game behind Tampa in first and 1/2 game behind Dunedin in second.

There have been a lot of roster moves since the first half so it is almost like a new team in the secnd part of the year.    Just before the all-star break Pat Overholt was promoted to Reading, and since the all-star break Carlos Carrasco was promoted to Reading as well.  This has left a power vaccuum for starting pitchers in Clearwater that has yet to be filled. 

Ben Pfinsgraff and Alex Concepcion have been promoted from Lakewood to fill the empty spots, and Luis Villerreal has been added as a free agent to fill the spot of Dan Brauer who is on the DL.  So far these additions have seen mixed results.  Concepcion had a tough first outting, but was solid in his next two starts, and very good in his most recent trip to the hill giving up just four hits in seven innings of work.  Unfortunately those hits included two solo home runs and a triple for three runs, but the offense helped him out with an 8-4 win.

Pfinsgraff has a 6.75 ERA at Clearwater in an up and down start in his three games.  He went 5.0 innings in his first start giving up three runs but earning a loss with no run support.  In his second start he was excellent going 7.0 innings with no runs on four hits and four Ks but got a no decision again thanks to no offensive support.  IN his most recent outing he was pummeled for eight runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings of work.

Brad Harman (a Phuturephillies favorite) has turned things up since the break hitting .400 in July while starting at just .237 before the all-star break.   Clay Harris who lead the SAL last year in HR got off to a rough start in Clearwater hitting just .196 before the break, but has improved to .314 since then.    Catching prospect Lou Marson who earned an all-star game bid has done even better since the break as well hitting .321 since then.

Starting pitcher Josh Outman has continued to put up impressive numbers with a 9-2 record and a 2.08 ERA as a starter with 96Ks in 97.2 innings of work.  (Josh’s overall ERA stand at 2.58 skewed by one relief appearance where he gave up 7 runs in 2.2 innings of work).

 Starting pitcher Andrew Carpenter has been a pleasant suprise for the team with a 9-5 record and a 3.80 ERA.  He had a recent 25.0 scoreless innings streak snapped in his last game when he gave up three runs in his most recent outting.

The Clearwater Threshers earned their best first-half record in their short four-year history going 39-31.  The team had six players selected to the FSL All-Star game:  pitchers Carlos Carasco, Andrew Carpenter, Pat Overholt, OF/DH Jeremy Slayden, and catcher Lou Marson were elected by the managers in the league and Greg Golson was selected by the commisioners office to attend the game. 

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It’s been two  plus weeks since our last Clearwater Threshers Report with the team going 9-9 over that period.   The team is now three games out of first place with thirteen games remaining in the season’s first half.   (For those unfmiliar with the FSL playoff format, the season is split into two halves with the winner of the first half making the playoffs to face the winner of the season’s second half.)  The Sarasota Reds currently lead the Threshers’ division, but they will have a critical three game set versus the Threshers to end the first-half of the year.

 Since the last report the FSL has named the All-Star team which will include five Threshers players.  The Threshers on the All-Star team will include:  Pitchers Carlos Carrasco , Andrew Carpenter and Pat Overholt as well as catcher Lou Marson, and OF/DH Jeremy Slayden. Read the rest of this entry »

This past week was not a good one for the Clearwater Threshers. On May 14th the team was just one game out of first place and the pitching staff owned the lowest overall ERA in the entire Florida State League. After the next seven games where the team lost all but one, including two games where they gave up 13 runs and 16 runs back-to-back to the first-place Sarasota Reds they are now five games behind the Reds, and the team’s ERA has fallen to sixth in the league.

The week began on an ominous note with the Threshers losing in 10 innings to the last place Ft. Myers Miracle (Twins). Going into the tenth inning tied at 1-1 the Threshers picked up two runs to take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the inning. Brett Harker came in out of the bullpen to close the game since the Threshers ace closer Mike Zagurski had been promoted to Reading two days prior. Though Harker had four saves on the year, the situation seemed alien to him on this night. He walked the first batter, gave up a single, then walked another to load the bases. He then gave up back-to-back singles as the Miracle scored 3 runs to down the Threshers 4-3.

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A few weeks ago, after a particularly strong outing for Pat Overholt, I noted that his success is basically tied to being able to get groundouts, as he has been home run prone in the past, and as a starter, he’d have to really focus on pitching at the bottom of the strike zone to be effective. Last night, Pat got a lesson about not keeping the ball on the ground, to the tune of 7 ER. Here is the only stat you need to know

2 groundball outs, 8 fly ball outs.

He gave up 3 home runs in the game, 2 of them to top prospect Jay Bruce. In a 4 start stretch from April 5th through April 21st, Overholt had gotten 37 ground balls to only 13 fly ball outs, and he was largely successful in those starts. In the start prior to last night’s, he got 9 ground balls to 7 fly balls, struggled with his command (5 walks), but managed to avoid major damage, allowing only 1 ER in 6.2 IP. Last night, however, he wasn’t so lucky.

While I’ve previously expressed a differing opinion than the Phillies on Pat Overholt’s role, he continues to impress, with an 8 inning gem tonight. He allowed 6 hits and 1 walk to go with his 3 strikeouts. More impressively, he logged 14 ground ball outs against only 6 fly outs. Here are his game logs this season

4/5: 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K
4/11: 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
4/16: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K
4/21: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Here are his GB: FB numbers in those starts

4/5: 4 GB, 6 FB
4/11:  11 GB,  1 FB
4/16: 8 GB, 0 FB
4/21: 14 GB, 6 FB

Add that up, he’s registered 37 GB outs to only 13 FB outs, good for almost a 3 to 1 ratio. If he continues to pitch along those lines, and can keep his walks down, he’ll likely experience success as a starter. While I do tend to worry about starting pitchers who don’t miss bats, if he’s getting weak contact, it’s not quite as big an issue.

Before I get to the update, I’m still looking for correspondants to write a once a week report for Lakewood and Reading. If you’re interested, send an e-mail to phuturephillies @ hotmail dot com

Way back in January, I wrote a little piece on 5 pitchers in the Phillies system that I thought would merit special attention and following in 2007, as I felt they were candidates to have very solid seasons and elevate their prospect status. So, let’s see how my guys are doing thus far.

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Round 4 begins now.

Griffith, Derek, LHP (age 24) Grade = D+

Griffith had a decent 2005, allowing less than a hit per inning, striking out over 7 per nine innings, and keeping the ball in the park. In 2006, with a promotion to Clearwater, he took a step back. The former 17th round pick posted a 4.52 ERA in 151.2 IP, allowing 162 H, 57 walks, and struck out only 95 batters. His home run rate remained similar (up a tick), and he didn’t walk too many more per 9, but because he was 23, he needed a better season. When you’re taking guys in the 17th round, you are clearly tempering expectations, but after his 2005, there was reason to be somewhat optimistic. Because he is left handed, his shelf life is probably longer than that of a comparable pitcher who happens to be right handed. He experienced slightly better success vs LHB, holding them to a .641 OPS against his .777 OPS allowed to RH batters, which may suggest a possible move to the bullpen. He also induced 254 groundballs, to only 156 flyballs, which is nice, but he still pitches to contact too much for my liking, and that tends to catch up at higher levels. Griffith may repeat Clearwater, but along with Lakewood, those two teams will have a ton of candidates for the rotation, so he may be sent to Reading to start, or he may be converted to relief. If he can hone his stuff and ramp it up for one inning, he might be a good bullpen candidate in 2 years, but he has a ways to go yet. He’d receive a straight D if he weren’t lefthanded and didn’t have strong groundball tendencies.

Ceiling: I’m not sure, a swingman or 6th inning guy? He doesn’t have dominant splits, but is a bit better against LH batters than RH batters, so he might be a viable bullpen option.

Floor: Out of baseball in 3 years. He’s still got the tall frame that scouts like, especially for a LHP, but at some point, he needs to show it on the field. 2007 will kind of determine his future in baseball, or at least give us a much better idea.

Conclusion: As you can tell by the grade, I’m not very high on Griffith at this point. I guess if he lights up the world in 2007, the Phillies will take a chance on him and add him to the 40 man. If not, he’s Rule 5 bound, and could be out of the organization. He needs a big time season in 2007, because he’s 24 and has yet to reach AA.

Kendrick, Kyle, RHP (age 22) Grade: B

My thinking on Kendrick seems to differ day to day. I wrote a piece a little while back that 2007 was a big year for him, and if he were going to become a big league contributor, he’d have to take a big step forward, but the more I think about it, the more comfortable I am with him as a prospect. Because of his age, he pitched almost all of 2006 at age 21, he is still fine in terms of where he should be, but he’s been in pro ball for four seasons now, and after 2007, will have to be placed on the 40 man roster. Prior to 2006, he hadn’t done much to warrant that spot, but his 2006 was a definite step in the right direction. He posted dominant numbers at Lakewood, with a 2.15 ERA in 46 IP, allowing only 34 H and 15 BB against 54 K. After being promoted to Clearwater, the strikeout numbers dropped substantially (79 in 130 IP), but his walk rate actually improved (2.93 to 2.56) and he saw a moderate rise in his hit rate. As he’s climbed the ladder, it seems he struggles initially, but once he repeats the level, he gets more comfortable and regains his stuff. As 2007 will only be his age 22 season, he’s still prime prospect age. He could start back at Clearwater, but the Phillies might go ahead and send him to Reading, as he did log 130 innings at Clearwater. He’ll experience his toughest test to date in the Eastern League, and it will be interesting to see which Kendrick we get. His grade has room to move in either direction. A strong season at AA and I’d have no problems rating him a B+, but if he falters and his K rate remains in the 5-6 range, he could easily become a C+ prospect.

Ceiling: A #2/#3 starter, depending on his K rate. Right now, that is the area that remains the biggest question mark. Many had pegged Kendrick as a breakout candidate for 2006, and they were right, but now the test will be what he does going forward.

Floor: Let’s say his floor is a four A SP who bounces between AAA and the Majors. He doesn’t seem like a bullpen guy, at least now, and people will always dream on his loose arm and quality stuff, but if he can’t get guys out, and can’t generate swings and misses, he might not have a long term future in the pen either.

Conclusion: I had my doubts about Kendrick prior to 2006, and while I still have doubts, they’ve grown less convincing. I still think 2007 is a make or break year for him, not so much in being placed on the 40 man (he probably will be, regardless), but in him actually becoming a quality big league pitcher.

Johnson, Nate, RHP (age 24) Grade = C (Updated from a C+ to a C)

Johnson is a guy who never gets mentioned, even when discussing the fringe prospects, but I think he might deserve a look. I give him a C+, but I will state right off the top that he was too old for High A Clearwater. Johnson was taken in the 20th round of the 2004 draft, and 2006 represented his age 24 season, so it’s time for him to start moving a bit more rapidly. However, since he is exclusively a reliever, that shouldn’t be that much of an issue. Johnson struggled at Batavia in 2004, he struggled at Lakewood in 2005, but he really came into his own in 2006, posting a 2.56 ERA in 66 IP, allowing only 59 hits and 10 walks to 55 strikeouts. While the K rate (7.42/9) isn’t overly impressive, his control is, and 1.35 BB/9 is good regardless of the level you’re at. He induced more groundballs than fly balls (91 to 65) and allowed only 3 HR in the 66 innings. He was tough against LH batters, holding them to a .573 OPS, but he also shut down righties to the tune of a .609 OPS. He should be sent to Reading in 2007, where he’ll pitch for most of the year, in all likelihood. With another solid year, he could present himself as a bullpen option sometime in 2008. He isn’t flashy, he doesn’t have world-beater stuff, but he’s just the type of prospect all successful organizations need to have an abundance of.

Ceiling: A 7th inning reliever, really nothing more, and maybe a long man as “less” if you want to go that route.

Floor: Organizational filler.

Conclusion: I’m probably the only one talking about Johnson, and I may look silly in this space at this time next year, but I think he’s got a decent chance to become the 2008 version of Geoff Geary. Not spectacular, doesn’t have mind blowing stuff, but gets guys out, and does so cheaply. His ability to keep the ball in the park, and his impeccable control are big pluses for me, but we’ll see how it translates at AAA and eventually the bigs. I think he’s got a 50/50 shot of becoming the next Geary.

EDIT: oldgrandad snapped me out of my Nate Johnson appreciation fest and made me realize he does, in fact, warrant only a C.

Overholt, Patrick, RHP (age 22) Grade = B-

Overholt was a guy that I highlighted in my Arms to Watch piece, and I’m a big fan of his going forward. A college closer, he has the mentality to pitch in the late innings, and maybe most importantly, to me anyway, is his dominant strikeout rate. He K’ed 52 in 45 innings at Lakewood, and then 41 in 26 innings at Clearwater. His peripheral numbers were actually better at Clearwater than Lakewood (except HR rate), but his ERA was worse, 4.15 at Clearwater to only 3.15 at Lakewood. His final numbers were solid, 73 IP, 57 H allowed, 36 BB, 93 K. I’d have given him a straight B if it weren’t for his control issues at Lakewood. He cut down his walks by almost 2 per 9 innings at Clearwater, but they are still a concern. He will be 23 for his entire 2007 campaign, and personally, I think he should start off at Reading, but the Phillies might play it safe and start him as the closer in Clearwater with a mid-season promotion. If he can work on his control a bit and get his walk rate down in the 2.75-2.90/9 range and keep his K total where it is, he’s going to be a big league reliever, and possibly even a high leverage type of guy. Definitely an interesting arm, one of many in our pitching heavy system.

Ceiling: A big league closer. Simply put, he’s got quality stuff and gets a lot of swings and misses, plus he has the closing background and seems to have the mindset to pitch in high leverage situations.

Floor: A middle reliever, pitching anywhere from the 6th-8th inning, depending on need.

Conclusion: With Overholt, it’s simply going to come down to his command/control. If he can harness his stuff and avoid giving out free passes, he’s got the ingredients to become a big time reliever, and possibly a closer. While you rarely see a young pitcher come in and just start closing games at the big league level, ala Huston Street, Overholt might start as a 6th/7th inning guy, maybe even as soon as September 2007, but could eventually work his way into the back end of the pen. Tom Gordon isn’t young, and his contract is basically done after 2008, so if Overholt continues to impress, he may get a shot late in 2008 to close out some games, and it could be his role on this team, or on some other team, a few years down the road. Outside of Bisenius, he’s probably our best relief prospect, and being a year younger with closing experience, probably has a leg up on Joe for that spot, if we have an in house guy who can take it.