Phuture Phillies

The Reading Eagle has the scoop

Word came down from Philadelphia Thursday to shake up the Double-A club’s pitching staff, with Josh Outman and Fabio Castro sent to the bullpen.

The move of Castro isn’t a surprise: All but one of his 26 appearances with Philadelphia over the last two seasons have come out of the bullpen.

For the 23-year-old Outman, however, it’s big news since he’s been projected as a starter and a potential member of the rotation in Philadelphia.

The order to get him accustomed to coming out of the bullpen signals that the Phillies see him helping them, and soon. He could very well be in the big leagues by mid-June.

“They feel like the need in the major leagues (right now) is for a left-handed reliever,” said Phillies minor league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller. “I think he suits that (role). I have no doubt that he’s got the stuff to do it.”

Veeeeeeery interesting. If the goal is to break Outman into the majors as a reliever, with the ultimate goal of having him start next season, then I like this move. If they have already given up on him as a starter, then I don’t like the move at all. Only time will tell.

I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…

Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?

Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.

Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.

Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO

The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.

Much like the big-league club, this year’s Reading Phillies are off to a so-so start. At 4-4, they’re in the middle of the pack in the Eastern League Southern Division. They started off hot, taking three of four from the Altoona Curve to open the season, but have cooled down and lost their last three straight games.

By now, I’m sure most of you have heard about OF Greg Golson hitting the tar out of the ball. After 8 games, Golson’s batting a tidy .323 with three doubles, a triple, and seven steals, all while tying for the team lead in runs scored with five. It looks as if his winter spent with Charlie Manuel has helped Golson up his game. However, before we sing his praises and worship him as the savior of the Phils minor-league chain, it’s important to note that his OBP is only .344, while his K-BB ratio is 8-1 on the young season. Golson’s going to have to get on base more often before he can really display one of his most impressive tools — his speed. His season is certainly one to keep an eye on as he looks to possibly earn a call-up during September.

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This is certainly the most in depth piece I’ve ever seen on Outman, and details his unorthodox delivery in college, how he altered it, and the impact it’s had. Very good stuff for a change from the official web site.

Hat tip to frequent reader/commenter dajafi, who posted this over at TGP.

Baseball America is rolling out their League Top 20’s, and both Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman made the list at #6 and #14 respectively in the FSL, while Kyle Kendrick and Mike Costanzo made the Easter League Top 20. Check the list here and here. Kendrick’s inclusion has to be an oversight, as he clearly broke the innings limit that BA places on it’s qualified guys.

Carrasco

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

Carrasco’s biggest concern is his consistency. When he begins a game with good stuff, he usually leaves hitters helpless. But when he doesn’t, he has yet to show the savvy to win with less than his best. He tries to overthrow, which results in him leaving vulnerable fastballs up in the strike zone.

He also needs to refine his curveball. Carrasco shows some feel for it and occasionally snaps off a plus bender, but he struggles to locate it.

Outman

With Outman, it’s all about control. He struggles at times to control his fastball, which explains why ranked among the minor league leaders with 77 walks in 159 innings. At times he struggles to control his emotions, which explains why he overthrows and is prone to big innings and bad outings.

But there’s also a lot to like about the lefty, who led the league with a 2.45 ERA and earned a promotion to Double-A. Outman’s fastball sits at 92-94 mph and he pairs it with an 84-87 mph slider. He’s working on a changeup that still has a ways to go.

A good athlete, Outman has reworked his mechanics and developed a more conventional delivery since turning pro. He also has added some deception, as he now hides the ball much longer, and his fastball has picked up some life. One manager who saw him in low Class A in 2006 said has made significant strides since last year

Kendrick

Kendrick never had pitched above Class A prior to 2007, but he entered the postseason as the Phillies’ Game Two starter, and his 3.87 ERA ranked second among their starters. He got started down that path in the EL, as he harnessed his command and stopped trying to pitch up in the strike zone with his fastball and down with his slider.

The athletic Kendrick repeats his delivery, pumps his two-seam sinker to the bottom of the zone and spots his harder, low-90s four-seamer down and away. He also has a hard slider that’s more of a groundball pitch than a strikeout offering. His changeup plays up because he locates it well.

“He realized strikeouts are over-rated,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s pitching at the knees and when he misses, he misses down. He made hitters hit his pitch, because his command was that good. To give up just three home runs, playing in our ballpark, that’s all about executing your pitches, and he did.”

Costanzo

Costanzo finished second to Larish with 27 homers despite a horrific start. For the second straight year, he finished with a flourish, hitting .358 with eight home runs in the final month. He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not surprisingly, I have to disagree with PJ Forbes here. Strikeouts are not overrated, and they are a good indicator of future success. I was mildly surprised that Donald didn’t make the back end of the list on either the SAL or the FSL Top 20, but I guess it’s because BA still doesn’t view him as more than a fringe regular in the majors. So far, our representation looks like this

Joe Savery, #2 NYPL
Dominic Brown, #15 NYPL
Adrian Cardenas, #13 SAL
Carlos Carrasco, #6 FSL
Josh Outman, #14 FSL
Kyle Kendrick, #14 EAS
Mike Costanzo, #19, EAS

I thought this would be an interesting comparison. Happ and Outman are arguably the Phillies two best LHP prospects, assuming that Antonio Bastardo still has a ways to go. Outside of the hand they throw with, the two pitchers are very different. Happ is 4 inches taller than Outman (6′5 to 6′1), and if you believe the media guides, has 25 pounds on him. Despite the height difference, Outman actually throws harder than Happ, with a 91-93 fastball, compared to Happ’s 89-92.  Happ’s second best offering is his changeup, while Outman’s is a slider, and Happ’s breaking ball is more of an over the top 12-6, as opposed to Outman’s sharp slider.  Happ is a year older than Outman, and has also pitched at higher levels to date. Here are their numbers at the respective levels.

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It’s been a few weeks since my last Threshers update, so I figured I’d better get on the ball.  The Threshers finished the first half of the year in third place behind first-half champs the Sarasota Reds and the Tampa Yankees.  In the second half of the season the boys have been cruising along right where thay left off.  They currently sit in third one game behind Tampa in first and 1/2 game behind Dunedin in second.

There have been a lot of roster moves since the first half so it is almost like a new team in the secnd part of the year.    Just before the all-star break Pat Overholt was promoted to Reading, and since the all-star break Carlos Carrasco was promoted to Reading as well.  This has left a power vaccuum for starting pitchers in Clearwater that has yet to be filled. 

Ben Pfinsgraff and Alex Concepcion have been promoted from Lakewood to fill the empty spots, and Luis Villerreal has been added as a free agent to fill the spot of Dan Brauer who is on the DL.  So far these additions have seen mixed results.  Concepcion had a tough first outting, but was solid in his next two starts, and very good in his most recent trip to the hill giving up just four hits in seven innings of work.  Unfortunately those hits included two solo home runs and a triple for three runs, but the offense helped him out with an 8-4 win.

Pfinsgraff has a 6.75 ERA at Clearwater in an up and down start in his three games.  He went 5.0 innings in his first start giving up three runs but earning a loss with no run support.  In his second start he was excellent going 7.0 innings with no runs on four hits and four Ks but got a no decision again thanks to no offensive support.  IN his most recent outing he was pummeled for eight runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings of work.

Brad Harman (a Phuturephillies favorite) has turned things up since the break hitting .400 in July while starting at just .237 before the all-star break.   Clay Harris who lead the SAL last year in HR got off to a rough start in Clearwater hitting just .196 before the break, but has improved to .314 since then.    Catching prospect Lou Marson who earned an all-star game bid has done even better since the break as well hitting .321 since then.

Starting pitcher Josh Outman has continued to put up impressive numbers with a 9-2 record and a 2.08 ERA as a starter with 96Ks in 97.2 innings of work.  (Josh’s overall ERA stand at 2.58 skewed by one relief appearance where he gave up 7 runs in 2.2 innings of work).

 Starting pitcher Andrew Carpenter has been a pleasant suprise for the team with a 9-5 record and a 3.80 ERA.  He had a recent 25.0 scoreless innings streak snapped in his last game when he gave up three runs in his most recent outting.

This past week was not a good one for the Clearwater Threshers. On May 14th the team was just one game out of first place and the pitching staff owned the lowest overall ERA in the entire Florida State League. After the next seven games where the team lost all but one, including two games where they gave up 13 runs and 16 runs back-to-back to the first-place Sarasota Reds they are now five games behind the Reds, and the team’s ERA has fallen to sixth in the league.

The week began on an ominous note with the Threshers losing in 10 innings to the last place Ft. Myers Miracle (Twins). Going into the tenth inning tied at 1-1 the Threshers picked up two runs to take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the inning. Brett Harker came in out of the bullpen to close the game since the Threshers ace closer Mike Zagurski had been promoted to Reading two days prior. Though Harker had four saves on the year, the situation seemed alien to him on this night. He walked the first batter, gave up a single, then walked another to load the bases. He then gave up back-to-back singles as the Miracle scored 3 runs to down the Threshers 4-3.

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Back to the grades

Henry, CJ, SS (age 20) Grade = C-

CJ Henry, another cog in the Abreu trade, unfortunately comes with more hype than substance, but not enough performance to save him from this disappointing grade. Henry, a first round pick in 2005, was like the Yankees version of Greg Golson, so it was only natural that the Phillies asked for him in the Abreu deal. He was a basketball ace in high school and gave up a scholarship in favor of baseball. Always modest, he compares himself as a cross between Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Yeah, so he’s modest at least. Unfortunately, his composite put him at around 3% below league average in the SAL, his OB% just .001 under league average (.330) and his slugging % (.366) about 2.6% under league average. He’s the classic tools guy, good athlete, potential power, good speed, but he hasn’t shown it on the field yet, much like our own Greg Golson. He played SS, but many feel he’s going to have to move off the position and move to 3B, possibly the OF down the road. He was only 20 in 2006 playing in the SAL, and will be 21 at the end of May, so even if he repeats Lakewood, he won’t be too old for the league. Maybe moving off of shortstop will allow him to relax a bit and focus more on hitting. There is one silver lining to his 2006. He drew 32 walks in 77 games for New York before the deal, which helped compensate for his poor .240 BA. For Henry, it’s all upside, not much performance.

Ceiling: An everyday 3B. Seriously, he has the tools to be an impact player. It’s the translation of the tools that is the current issue. Which leads to…

Floor: A basketball player. Maybe Henry made the wrong choice to play baseball, maybe not. Unfortunately, with a player like him, the gap between what he can be is huge. If he learns how to refine his approach at the plate, if he better utilizes his speed, and if he can take to 3B, he could turn into a superstar in short order. If not, he’ll never make it past AAA.

Conclusion: Henry, like Golson, is one of the guys that drive you insane, because you see the potential, but you don’t see the results. 2007 should give us a good idea whether he’s moving closer to being a useful player, or if it’s time to give up completely.

Maloney, Matt, LHP (age 23) Grade = B

On paper, Maloney should be an A++. He put up a sparking 2.03 ERA in 168.2 IP in 2006, allowed only 120 hits and struck out 180 batters, en route to helping lead the Blueclaws to the SAL title. However, there are some problems, in my view. First, he was 22 the entire year, on the high end of the prospect spectrum. College pitchers should dominate at low A, and Maloney did. The second problem, which ties in with the third, is his walk rate. He walked 73 in the 168.2 IP, which is a lot of walks. This ties in with the third problem, his mediocre stuff. He has a deceptive delivery (but it looks max effort to me, which could be a problem), and he relies on his slow curveball to get outs. The problem is, at higher levels, batters are less likely to swing at breaking balls out of the zone. Most guys with fringe stuff are pinpoint control guys, like Kevin Slowey and Jeremy Sowers, and scouts even question their success at higher levels. For a guy with an 86-89 MPH fastball, even for a lefty, I think he’s going to need to really refine his control at the higher levels, or he’s going to hit a wall quickly. Because he clearly didn’t belong in the SAL, we’ll have to see how he does against better competition. I’m not writing him off, though my writeup seems harsh, but I want to see him dominate (or at least pitch well) at higher levels against more advanced hitters. If his control improves, so will his grade.

Ceiling: Because of the lack of a high quality fastball or above average stuff, his ceiling is probably as a 4th/5th starter.

Floor: Brian Mazone without the steroids?

Conclusion: Finesse pitchers are really tough to figure out and project. If his control improves, he’s got a much better shot to reach his ceiling. If it doesn’t improve, he looks more like a AAAA pitcher, or maybe a possible reliever down the road. His 2007 should land him in Reading, where he’ll be the proper age for his level, and will be facing much more advanced prospects. If he repeats his numbers from 2006, he’ll be a legit prospect, and the ceiling might even improve.

Outman, Josh, LHP (age 22) Grade = A-

When you consider their numbers, Maloney had the better 2006, but when you consider the stuff, Outman gets the nod, and it’s not really close. Outman was well above average in H/9, K/9 and HR/9, but like Maloney, struggled a bit with command, allowing 4.35 BB/9. However, he scrapped his slower slider/curve in favor of a hard biting slider, and that might be a possible reason for his lack of control. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range, which is outstanding for a LHP, and while his changeup is average, it could improve as he throws it more. His new-found hard slider was a true out pitch, evident in the 9.33 K/9. He didn’t turn 22 until September, so he basically pitched 2006 at age 21, which gives him another edge on Maloney. His composite numbers, about 31% above league average, probably should put him in the B+ range, but he gets the bump up for his strong performance as the season progressed, with his August (32 IP, 10 BB, 16 H, 35 K) showing that he’d truly taken things in the right direction. Because he possesses better stuff, he’s a better bet going forward. He’s also a personal favorite of mine, so that might skew my grade a bit, but lefties with his type of power don’t grow on trees. Chris Kline mentioned he might end up a reliever if he doesn’t harness his changeup, but I think he has plenty of time to work on it, and there’s no need to rush him. Power lefties are rare, and are much more valuable in the rotation. He’ll likely start at Clearwater and possibly move to Reading at mid-season.

Ceiling: #2 starter. I stated above that he’s a favorite, so maybe I’m being unrealistic, but really, if he lowers his walk rate while maintaining his strong K rate and hit rate, he’s got the makings of a front of the rotation starter. He keeps the ball on the ground and gets lots of swings and misses….really the perfect combination for a pitcher.

Floor: A reliever. If his changeup doesn’t become at least average, this is a possiblity.

Conclusion: The sky is the limit for Outman, a 10th round pick in 2005. If he harnesses his stuff, he’s a lock to stay in the rotation, and probably pitch in the top half of said rotation. If he pitches well in 2007, he should finish the season at Reading, which means he’ll be poised for MLB action sometime in 2008. There’s no need to rush him at this point, and focusing on his control within the strikezone and his command of his secondary pitches are the big areas to watch in 2007.

Yesterday I attempted to predict what the BA list would look like. Having seen the hard copy list, I’ll just give you my guess, then the actual.

My guess (BA position)

1. Carrasco (1st)
2. Drabek (2nd)
3. Cardenas (3rd)
4. Bourn (7th)
5. Outman (6th)
6. Golson (10th)
7. Happ (8th)
8. Garcia (4th)
9. Sanchez (UR)
10. Maloney (9th)

They ranked Mathieson 5th, I wasn’t sure they’d rank him since he will be 23 and would miss an entire year. All in all, I didn’t do too badly.