Phuture Phillies

I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…

Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?

Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.

Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.

Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO

The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.

Much like the big-league club, this year’s Reading Phillies are off to a so-so start. At 4-4, they’re in the middle of the pack in the Eastern League Southern Division. They started off hot, taking three of four from the Altoona Curve to open the season, but have cooled down and lost their last three straight games.

By now, I’m sure most of you have heard about OF Greg Golson hitting the tar out of the ball. After 8 games, Golson’s batting a tidy .323 with three doubles, a triple, and seven steals, all while tying for the team lead in runs scored with five. It looks as if his winter spent with Charlie Manuel has helped Golson up his game. However, before we sing his praises and worship him as the savior of the Phils minor-league chain, it’s important to note that his OBP is only .344, while his K-BB ratio is 8-1 on the young season. Golson’s going to have to get on base more often before he can really display one of his most impressive tools — his speed. His season is certainly one to keep an eye on as he looks to possibly earn a call-up during September.

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Please, Pat and Charlie, if you are reading this, DO NOT DO THIS. This article talks about Carrasco’s hot start this spring, and his desire to remain with the big club. Putting him in the rotation would be a mistake, unless the team plans to leave him there, for better or worse, and we know they are not in a position to do that. I wouldn’t mind Carrasco competing for a middle reliever spot, not mopup duty, where he can get regular work and be broken into the majors in that fashion, but I don’t think Manuel would trust him, much like he didn’t trust Castro when we got him and had to keep him on the roster. Carrasco needs to either be starting every 5th day in Reading or Allentown, or pitching 2-3 times a week out of the major league pen. Please don’t yo yo him around when he’s not ready for the rotation in the bigs.

Another friend of the blog, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus put out his Top 100 prospects list today. Carlos Carrasco checked in at #68, while Joe Savery slipped in at #96. You can check out the full list here, and you can ask Goldstein a question in his BP chat today at 1PM eastern.

JM (MD): Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn’t it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?

Kevin Goldstein: It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn’t miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don’t get me wrong — But I think he’s a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world.

Justin (Brno (Czech Republic)): How good will Adrian Cardenas be in the big leagues? Do you think his power will develop into a middle of the order type of bat?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’ll be an above-average offensive second baseman, but I don’t see his power ceiling going past the 15-20 home runs a year range. Little guy, line-drive bat.

Baseball America is rolling out their League Top 20’s, and both Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman made the list at #6 and #14 respectively in the FSL, while Kyle Kendrick and Mike Costanzo made the Easter League Top 20. Check the list here and here. Kendrick’s inclusion has to be an oversight, as he clearly broke the innings limit that BA places on it’s qualified guys.

Carrasco

Carrasco is a long ways from a finished product, but he does have a pair of major league pitches. He throws a plus fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95 with good life, as well as a quality changeup. His mechanics are nearly picture-perfect, as he looks like he’s throwing an easy side session while popping 92s and 93s.

Carrasco’s biggest concern is his consistency. When he begins a game with good stuff, he usually leaves hitters helpless. But when he doesn’t, he has yet to show the savvy to win with less than his best. He tries to overthrow, which results in him leaving vulnerable fastballs up in the strike zone.

He also needs to refine his curveball. Carrasco shows some feel for it and occasionally snaps off a plus bender, but he struggles to locate it.

Outman

With Outman, it’s all about control. He struggles at times to control his fastball, which explains why ranked among the minor league leaders with 77 walks in 159 innings. At times he struggles to control his emotions, which explains why he overthrows and is prone to big innings and bad outings.

But there’s also a lot to like about the lefty, who led the league with a 2.45 ERA and earned a promotion to Double-A. Outman’s fastball sits at 92-94 mph and he pairs it with an 84-87 mph slider. He’s working on a changeup that still has a ways to go.

A good athlete, Outman has reworked his mechanics and developed a more conventional delivery since turning pro. He also has added some deception, as he now hides the ball much longer, and his fastball has picked up some life. One manager who saw him in low Class A in 2006 said has made significant strides since last year

Kendrick

Kendrick never had pitched above Class A prior to 2007, but he entered the postseason as the Phillies’ Game Two starter, and his 3.87 ERA ranked second among their starters. He got started down that path in the EL, as he harnessed his command and stopped trying to pitch up in the strike zone with his fastball and down with his slider.

The athletic Kendrick repeats his delivery, pumps his two-seam sinker to the bottom of the zone and spots his harder, low-90s four-seamer down and away. He also has a hard slider that’s more of a groundball pitch than a strikeout offering. His changeup plays up because he locates it well.

“He realized strikeouts are over-rated,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s pitching at the knees and when he misses, he misses down. He made hitters hit his pitch, because his command was that good. To give up just three home runs, playing in our ballpark, that’s all about executing your pitches, and he did.”

Costanzo

Costanzo finished second to Larish with 27 homers despite a horrific start. For the second straight year, he finished with a flourish, hitting .358 with eight home runs in the final month. He earned comparisons to Russell Branyan for his prodigious lefthanded power and erratic play at third base, where he committed 34 errors.

Costanzo evokes Branyan also for his strikeouts (157 in 508 at-bats), and his grooved swing will continue to produce holes that pitchers at advanced levels can exploit. He has the athletic ability to adjust and the raw power to hit homers even without squaring up the ball, but he must show the ability to make more adjustments and lay off pitches he can’t hit.

Defensively, Costanzo has the tools to play third, most notably a plus arm. But he has yet to make the adjustments that would make him an average defender. He lacks consistent footwork, and scouts question his agility and infield actions.

Not surprisingly, I have to disagree with PJ Forbes here. Strikeouts are not overrated, and they are a good indicator of future success. I was mildly surprised that Donald didn’t make the back end of the list on either the SAL or the FSL Top 20, but I guess it’s because BA still doesn’t view him as more than a fringe regular in the majors. So far, our representation looks like this

Joe Savery, #2 NYPL
Dominic Brown, #15 NYPL
Adrian Cardenas, #13 SAL
Carlos Carrasco, #6 FSL
Josh Outman, #14 FSL
Kyle Kendrick, #14 EAS
Mike Costanzo, #19, EAS

Midseason report released today.

29. Carlos Carrasco - RHP Phillies - DOB: 03/21/87 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #93

6-2, 2.84 ERA, 49 H, 53/22 K/BB in 69 2/3 IP for Single-A Clearwater
3-0, 3.48 ERA, 15 H, 14/12 K/BB in 20 2/3 IP for Double-A Reading

The lack of a strikeout breaking ball hasn’t prevented Carrasco from holding hitters to a .199 average this season. That’s because he has nice movement on his 91-94 mph fastball and one of the top changeups in the minors. An improved curveball would give him top-of-the-rotation potential, and he still looks plenty good enough to succeed as is. The Phillies could choose to hurry him to the majors next month if they’re still in contention.

Pitchers ranked ahead of Carrasco

4. Clay Buchholz (BOS)
12. Max Scherzer (ARI)
14. Adam Miller (CLE)
16. Eric Hurley (TEX)
19. Joba Chamberlain (NYY)
21. Gio Gonzalez (CHW)
22. Nick Adenhart (ANA)
24. Wade Davis (TBD)
27. Jacob McGee (TBD)

That would make double C the 10th best pitching prospect in baseball. Not bad.

Adrian Cardenas checks in at #93 which is low, considering the names above him. Mathieson was ranked #125, and Josh Outman #130.

It’s been a few weeks since my last Threshers update, so I figured I’d better get on the ball.  The Threshers finished the first half of the year in third place behind first-half champs the Sarasota Reds and the Tampa Yankees.  In the second half of the season the boys have been cruising along right where thay left off.  They currently sit in third one game behind Tampa in first and 1/2 game behind Dunedin in second.

There have been a lot of roster moves since the first half so it is almost like a new team in the secnd part of the year.    Just before the all-star break Pat Overholt was promoted to Reading, and since the all-star break Carlos Carrasco was promoted to Reading as well.  This has left a power vaccuum for starting pitchers in Clearwater that has yet to be filled. 

Ben Pfinsgraff and Alex Concepcion have been promoted from Lakewood to fill the empty spots, and Luis Villerreal has been added as a free agent to fill the spot of Dan Brauer who is on the DL.  So far these additions have seen mixed results.  Concepcion had a tough first outting, but was solid in his next two starts, and very good in his most recent trip to the hill giving up just four hits in seven innings of work.  Unfortunately those hits included two solo home runs and a triple for three runs, but the offense helped him out with an 8-4 win.

Pfinsgraff has a 6.75 ERA at Clearwater in an up and down start in his three games.  He went 5.0 innings in his first start giving up three runs but earning a loss with no run support.  In his second start he was excellent going 7.0 innings with no runs on four hits and four Ks but got a no decision again thanks to no offensive support.  IN his most recent outing he was pummeled for eight runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings of work.

Brad Harman (a Phuturephillies favorite) has turned things up since the break hitting .400 in July while starting at just .237 before the all-star break.   Clay Harris who lead the SAL last year in HR got off to a rough start in Clearwater hitting just .196 before the break, but has improved to .314 since then.    Catching prospect Lou Marson who earned an all-star game bid has done even better since the break as well hitting .321 since then.

Starting pitcher Josh Outman has continued to put up impressive numbers with a 9-2 record and a 2.08 ERA as a starter with 96Ks in 97.2 innings of work.  (Josh’s overall ERA stand at 2.58 skewed by one relief appearance where he gave up 7 runs in 2.2 innings of work).

 Starting pitcher Andrew Carpenter has been a pleasant suprise for the team with a 9-5 record and a 3.80 ERA.  He had a recent 25.0 scoreless innings streak snapped in his last game when he gave up three runs in his most recent outting.

I’m sad to say, I missed most of the game yesterday, but I did happen to catch Carrasco’s inning. His fastball looked good, he was adding and subtracting from it, throwing it anywhere from 89-95, and it had good movement on it. The one mistake he made was to Jay Bruce, but he just challenged him with a high fastball and Bruce turned it around….that happens from time to time. His changeup looked good, as did his curve, though it appeared a bit loopy at times. He could probably get by in the majors for a little while with just his fastball and changeup, but in the long run, he’ll need for his curveball to become at least a major league average pitch. It’s going to be really interesting to see how the Phillies handle him going forward. His last appearance in Reading was solid, going 4 innings and allowing only 1 hit and no runs. With all of the injuries right now, I wouldn’t be shocked if they brought him up. I think if they do bring him up, they need to stick with him for the rest of the season. Carrasco had confidence issues two years ago, and I’d hate to see him get brought up for a start or two, then get sent down and it set him back. He has a phenomenal arm, and I think the coaching at the top level could help him, but it’s a tough situation and certainly a difficult decision for Gillick.

So, what did you think of his performance? What do you think the Phillies should do with him for the rest of this season?

The Clearwater Threshers earned their best first-half record in their short four-year history going 39-31.  The team had six players selected to the FSL All-Star game:  pitchers Carlos Carasco, Andrew Carpenter, Pat Overholt, OF/DH Jeremy Slayden, and catcher Lou Marson were elected by the managers in the league and Greg Golson was selected by the commisioners office to attend the game. 

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Nice choices, I’d say they represent our best pitching prospect and position prospect. The game is Sunday, July 8th, and will be televised on ESPN 2 at 4 Eastern. Congrats to Carlos and Adrian.