We are now just over one month into the season and the Threshers have an 12-20 record so far. Over the last week the team faced the Ft. Myers Miracle for three games, followed by a four-game set with their first Eastern Division opponent of the year, the Brevard County Manatees. The Miracle began the Threshers week by sweeping them to give the Miracle a perfect 9-0 record against the Threshers this year, but the Threshers faired better against the Manatees with a 3-1 series record.
The team began the season with the pitchers leading the team in production, and the hitters lagging way behind. As the season has progressed the hitters have begun to get on track while the pitching has seen their stats fall in the league standings. The offense has the fourth best batting average in the league up from last place after week one, while the pitching has seen their ERA go from third best in the league after week one to the third worst at present.
Despite the good batting average the team has still got room for improvement. They are dead last in the league in all extra base hit categories, and have scored the third fewest runs as a result. On the positive side though, the hitters have the second most walks in the league and the second fewest strikeouts ranking them third in the league in OBP. As for the pitchers the team has the second most strikeouts in the league with 254, but has also allowed the second most walks with 122. Also the team lost their early season ace Antonio Bastardo to the AA Reading Phillies and has seen starter Carlos Monasterios placed on the DL this week. Read the rest of this entry »
Well last week’s report contained 8 games due to a 10:30 am game on Wednesday last week, so this week’s report includes only 5 games because of a day off for the league on Tuesday this week. Of course the big story for the week was Antonio Bastardo’s line in his game this past week. Overall the team went 2-3 on the week winning it’s last two games making it the first time this season the team has won two games in a row.
The offense has come to life a bit as of late coming up from last in the league in team batting average after week one, and next to last in batting average after week two to fourth (of twelve teams) in batting average currently. The offense has drawn the second most walks in the league, and has struck out fewer than all but one team in the league. Unfortunately the team is hitting without any power at all. The offense is last in slugging percentage, and in all XBH categories, last is RBIs, and next to last in runs scored as a result. (The odd thing is the team with the fewest runs in the league, the Tampa Yankees, are only one game out of first in the division.)
For the most part pitching remains the team’s strength and they lead the league with four shut outs so far this year, and have allowed the second fewest runs. The team has the third most strikeouts in the league with 197, but has also allowed the second most walks with 99. Read the rest of this entry »
So far Adrian Cardenas has stolen the show for the team as he has hit safely in all but one of the games including a 3-4 and a 4-5 effort. He is currently hitting .417 with 3 doubles, a stolen base and a team best 4 runs scored. Read the rest of this entry »
The Clearwater Threshers have continued to experience success this season, and we’ve gotten to see some solid talent in the Clearwater lineup for the first time in what seems like forever. The team is currently in third place in their division 3.5 games behind the Tampa Yankees with 28 games remaining on the team’s schedule for 2007.
Since my last Clearwater update center fielder Greg Golson has been promoted to Reading along with left handed pitcher Josh Outman. Meanwhile Alex Concepcion, Andrew Cruse and Ben Pfinsgraff have been added to the Threshers rotation from Lakewood.
It’s been a few weeks since my last Threshers update, so I figured I’d better get on the ball. The Threshers finished the first half of the year in third place behind first-half champs the Sarasota Reds and the Tampa Yankees. In the second half of the season the boys have been cruising along right where thay left off. They currently sit in third one game behind Tampa in first and 1/2 game behind Dunedin in second.
There have been a lot of roster moves since the first half so it is almost like a new team in the secnd part of the year. Just before the all-star break Pat Overholt was promoted to Reading, and since the all-star break Carlos Carrasco was promoted to Reading as well. This has left a power vaccuum for starting pitchers in Clearwater that has yet to be filled.
Ben Pfinsgraff and Alex Concepcion have been promoted from Lakewood to fill the empty spots, and Luis Villerreal has been added as a free agent to fill the spot of Dan Brauer who is on the DL. So far these additions have seen mixed results. Concepcion had a tough first outting, but was solid in his next two starts, and very good in his most recent trip to the hill giving up just four hits in seven innings of work. Unfortunately those hits included two solo home runs and a triple for three runs, but the offense helped him out with an 8-4 win.
Pfinsgraff has a 6.75 ERA at Clearwater in an up and down start in his three games. He went 5.0 innings in his first start giving up three runs but earning a loss with no run support. In his second start he was excellent going 7.0 innings with no runs on four hits and four Ks but got a no decision again thanks to no offensive support. IN his most recent outing he was pummeled for eight runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings of work.
Brad Harman (a Phuturephillies favorite) has turned things up since the break hitting .400 in July while starting at just .237 before the all-star break. Clay Harris who lead the SAL last year in HR got off to a rough start in Clearwater hitting just .196 before the break, but has improved to .314 since then. Catching prospect Lou Marson who earned an all-star game bid has done even better since the break as well hitting .321 since then.
Starting pitcher Josh Outman has continued to put up impressive numbers with a 9-2 record and a 2.08 ERA as a starter with 96Ks in 97.2 innings of work. (Josh’s overall ERA stand at 2.58 skewed by one relief appearance where he gave up 7 runs in 2.2 innings of work).
Starting pitcher Andrew Carpenter has been a pleasant suprise for the team with a 9-5 record and a 3.80 ERA. He had a recent 25.0 scoreless innings streak snapped in his last game when he gave up three runs in his most recent outting.
This past week was not a good one for the Clearwater Threshers. On May 14th the team was just one game out of first place and the pitching staff owned the lowest overall ERA in the entire Florida State League. After the next seven games where the team lost all but one, including two games where they gave up 13 runs and 16 runs back-to-back to the first-place Sarasota Reds they are now five games behind the Reds, and the team’s ERA has fallen to sixth in the league.
The week began on an ominous note with the Threshers losing in 10 innings to the last place Ft. Myers Miracle (Twins). Going into the tenth inning tied at 1-1 the Threshers picked up two runs to take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the inning. Brett Harker came in out of the bullpen to close the game since the Threshers ace closer Mike Zagurski had been promoted to Reading two days prior. Though Harker had four saves on the year, the situation seemed alien to him on this night. He walked the first batter, gave up a single, then walked another to load the bases. He then gave up back-to-back singles as the Miracle scored 3 runs to down the Threshers 4-3.
The Clearwater Threshers game scheduled for Friday night against the Vero Beach Devil Rays was cancelled due to smoke in the air. The smoke has been in the area for more than a week with a tropical storm off of the east coast carrying winds and smoke down to Clearwater from a series of wild fires burning in Georgia and north Florida. Most days the wind pattern has changed in the late afternoon as the gulf winds move inland when the weather cools later in the day.
On Friday night the winds never changed and with health concerns for the players the game was cancelled and will be made up as part of a double header on Saturday shceduled to begin at 5:00 weather/smoke permitting.
The Threshers have split the first two games in this series winning in an afternoon game on Wednesday 3-1 thanks to back-to-back eighth inning home runs from Jeremy Slayden and John Urick. Carlos Carrasco took the mound for the Threshers throwing eight excellent innings giving up just one run on four hits with eight strikeouts and two walks to lower his ERA to 4.05 and pick up his fourth win of the year to move his record to 4-1 on the season.
The Threshers got a 1-0 lead in the third when Matt Thayer walked and scored on a Greg Golson double, but the V-Rays tied things in the seventh with a solo home run off of Carrasco. The Threshers answered in the eighth inning with back-to-back home runs from Jeremy Slayden and John Urick to take a 3-1 lead in the game, with closer Mike Zagurski shutting down any hope of a Rays rally in the ninth by fanning all three batters he faced to secure the 3-1 victory.
The team lost on Thursday 8-6 with starter Dan Brauer having his first bad outing of the year. Brauer was only able to make it 2.2 innings in the game giving up six runs on five hits with six walks and three strikeouts. With the loss the Threshers dropped to second place one game behind the Sarasota Reds.
Back to the grades. We’re closing in on the finish line, slowly but surely. I have a lot of work to catch up on, so only two grades today, but I should be able to crank out 4 or so tomorrow.
Garcia, Edgar, RHP (age 19)Grade = A-
I recently wrote a feature piece on Garcia, so I won’t go into much detail here. Pitching at Batavia, at just 18 years of age, Garcia held his own, posting great numbers in every area except K/9, and in the above piece, I detailed why I’m not to worried in that area yet. His BB/9 rate was one of the best in the league, he lowered his hit rate by over 1.5 H/9, and he kept his HR rate at the same level despite facing much tougher competition. Doing so all at the age of 18 means he’s a definite A- prospect, and if his K/9 was 7.50 instead of 6.24, I’d have given him a straight A. At 19, he’ll still be quite young for the SAL, and is in position to put up a season on par with Carlos Carrasco’s 2006 with fewer K’s. If he does that, he’ll remain ranked near the top of our prospect list.
Brauer, Dan, LHP (age 23)Grade = B+
I also wrote a full length piece on Brauer a while back, so again, I won’t go on and on. Performance wise, Brauer deserves an A-/A, but I had to dock him points because he was old for Batavia, being 22 during the season, but his Lakewood numbers, albeit a small sample, didn’t show much of a dropoff. Brauer’s H/9, K/9 and HR/9 rates at Batavia were outstanding, his BB/9 was good as well, but will be something to watch as well. He slipped in the draft because teams were still worried about his arm, but he now looks like a possible poster boy for labrum surgery, as he’s actually working in the 90-92 range now, as opposed to the high 80’s like he did before surgery. If he is fully healthy, he’ll remain a starter until he proves he can’t handle the role. As I’ve chronicled in past writeups, the Lakewood/Clearwater rotations are going to be packed this season, and my guess is Brauer could start at Clearwater, which may be aggressive, but for a polished lefty in his age 23 season, he might be able to handle it. If he dominates at Clearwater, he could see his grade rise ala James Happ.
Another day, another player profile for your enjoyment. Today we’ll chronicle one of my personal favorites from the 2006 draft, LHP Dan Brauer. The Phillies selected Brauer #187 overall in the 6th round out of Northwestern University. If you remember from an earlier entry, the Phillies nabbed one of the most successful pitchers in Northwestern history two years prior in James Happ. Brauer, though, is a different case, as he was technically a senior, but with a year of eligibility left after missing all of 2005 with labrum surgery while Happ was a true junior. Brauer compiled a strong three years at Northwestern, finishing his career with this line:
236 IP, 3.24 ERA, 218 H, 103 BB, 230 K, 13 HR
Less than a hit per inning, a somewhat high walk rate, a solid K rate, and a very very good HR rate is pretty good production at a good school in a good conference, but you have to remove the top layer and look closer at his numbers. Looking at his numbers, year by year, give you a better idea
2003: 54.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 8.33 H/9, 5.33 BB/9, 7.33 K/9, 0.00 HR/9
2004: 89.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 8.06 H/9, 2.67 BB/9, 9.67 K/9, 0.50 HR/9
2005: Did Not Pitch (more on this in a minute)
2006: 92.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 8.55 H/9, 4.37 BB/9, 8.74 K/9, 0.78 HR/9
So, from his freshman year to his sophomore year, he improved across the board except he allowed 5 HR in 2004 as opposed to zero in 2003, but he also pitched 30 more innings. He missed the entire 2005 season with labrum surgery. For those who follow the injury side of the game, the “l word” is the scariest word in the baseball injury dictionary. For an explanation of it, read this amazing Will Carroll article on the subject that he wrote in Slate a few years back. The rate of successful return from labrum surgery is literally less than 5%, which really meant that Brauer was battling more than uphill in 2006, he was virtually climbing straight up the mountain. However, he was strong enough to pitch the most innings of his college career, post hit and walk rates that didn’t suggest he was gone as a pitcher, post impressive strikeout and home run totals, win Big Ten Conference Pitcher of the Year and throw a no-hitter against Michigan State……not a bad return. Much like Tommy John surgery, which has a much higher “survival” rate, it takes time after labrum surgery to regain your control and feel for pitching.
A number of factors, including the shoulder surgery, his year of eligibility, and his lack of “dominating stuff” like that of his teammate George Kontos, probably led to his slide to the Phillies. He wasted little time signing for $150,000 and soon reported to Batavia. He showed the Phillies he was fully recovered and ready to go by posting a 1.96 ERA in 55 innings, allowing 39 hits (1 home run) and 18 walks to 65 strikeouts and was promoted to Lakewood, where he made 3 appearances, giving up 4 runs in 8 innings, allowing 10 hits and 5 walks to go along with 10 strikeouts. All in all, a huge season for Brauer, not only in his numbers, but in recovering from the most deadly injury a pitcher can have.
Clearly, the Phillies feel like they got a steal in Brauer in the 6th round. As I mentioned above, he wasn’t the most heralded pitcher on his team, falling behind Yankees draft pick George Kontos, who has a livelier fastball, but is also probably further away from making an impact at the big league level, and who might end up as only a reliever based on a lack of secondary pitches. What Brauer lacks in shear velocity he makes up for with his command and pitchability. Some people aren’t as high on him as me, and suggest he is ticketed to become a reliever in the near future, but I tend to disagree there. Before his surgery, his command was solid, and he was striking out people with relative ease. His control was a bit shaky in college in 2006, but that’s to be expected in trying to recover from major arm surgery. He doesn’t allow many home runs, and based on his short 60 inning sample from pro ball, he had over a 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio, though he did allow his share of line drives. His splits don’t indicate lefthanded specialist, as he had a .779 OPS allowed to LH batters and a .555 OPS allowed to RH batters. As I’ve emphasized in past write-ups, when you see a pitcher with better numbers against his opposite side, it’s normally an indication of a strong changeup and a not so strong breaking ball. In Brauer’s case, it might be just him getting unlucky, as his BABIP against LH batters was an abnormally high .412, with the “average” being somewhere between .275-.300.
So, what to expect in 2007. It’s my belief Brauer will remain a starter until he either A.) Struggles at a higher level, or B.) The Phillies deem it necessary to bring him up to the bigs and use him in relief due to injury/shortage of arms. Normally teams will leave guys in the rotation until there is a need to move them, and in Brauer’s case, there doesn’t appear to be a need to move him. He handled short season Batavia with ease, and could very well be skipped over Lakewood and go straight to Clearwater, depending on the rotation situations at both spots. If he continues to regain his control, which was ok at 3.29 BB/9, there’s no reason to believe he won’t move quickly through the system. He could end up in Reading either at the end of 2007 or mid 2008, and who knows from there, depending on the role the Phillies have in mind for him. Having pitched with extreme pain in his arm in 2004, we know he’s a fierce competitor, and if fully healthy, I think his future is quite bright going forward.
Finally, we have some video on him. If the video messes up the formatting of this page, I’ll remove it from the page and just link it, so if it disappears momentarily or the page looks funny, have no fear, I’m on the case.
His fastball sits in the high 80’s here, but some reports indicated he was in the 90-91 range near the end of the season as he was regaining full strength in his arm. He features the slow 69-72 mph curveball, ala Randy Wolf, which he can throw for strikes, as well as his slider and change, which we don’t really see on the video. The thing that I think is most important, from watching him pitch, is that he has a very simple, repeatable delivery which doesn’t appear to put much stress on his arm. He doesn’t seem to fly out of control or have a lot of extraneous movements, which probably bodes well for him going forward when considering consistency.
It’s that time of the year where every site is churning out their top 10 prospect lists, so I figured I’d make my first “real” post my top 10, and also give predictions for their respective 2007’s. So, without further delay, here’s my list.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP. Carrasco had his breakout season in 2006, dominating the Low A Sally League at age 19. His peripheral stats were largely outstanding; 5.82 H/9, 3.67 BB/9, 8.98 K/9 and 0.34 HR/9. The only yellow flag (not serious enough for red) is his walk rate. Various scouting reports have said that his secondary pitches come and go, which is not that uncommon for a 19 year old. Carrasco has fluid, easy mechanics which bode well for his future health. Possibly the most impressive thing he has going for him is feel for his changeup. Changeup control is normally one of the last things a pitcher masters, but Carlos seems to have that down, he just needs to be consistent with his curve. After a tough 2005, which saw him bounce between Lakewood and Batavia, he opened just about everyone’s eyes. My guess is the Phillies will be cautious with him, since he only has one season of pro ball under his belt. He’ll more than likely start at Clearwater, and could possibly move to Reading by mid summer if he gets off to a fast start. Prediction: 163 IP, 7.50 H/9, 3.35 BB/9, 9.50 K/9, 0.65 HR
Adrian Cardenas,SS/2B. I’ll state this now to get it out of the way…..I might just be Adrian Cardenas fan #1, so keep that in mind as you read my writeup. The Phillies have a long history of drafting “toolsy” guys who can’t hit, with the hope of teaching them how to actually play baseball later. This method seems to fail much more than succeed, yet the Phillies (and other teams), continue to go this route in the draft. Think of it like playing a slot machine. You know the odds are bad, but it’s so much fun! Well, Cardenas bucks this trend, and I couldn’t be happier. Cardenas won the Baseball America High School POY this year, and he didn’t stop upon his arrival in pro ball. He put up a solid .318/.384/.442 line in the GCL, facing mostly high school pitchers. While Cardenas doesn’t fit the “toolsy” background of your typical Phillies draft pick, he has solid baseball skills, with an advanced approach to hitting and good overall baseball instincts. He played shortstop in high school, and might stay there for a few seasons, but most think he’ll end up at 2B. If he continues to hit as he climbs the organizational ladder, he’ll be above average offensively, which should offset his defensive limitations. Prediction: (A-), .312/.415/.475, 13 HR, 25 2B, 10 SB
James Happ, LHP. Many prospect ranking folks have different philosophies when it comes to weighing numbers and tools. Some go 50/50, some 70/30 or some combo in between. Happ is an interesting case, and maybe I’m being too kind, but maybe not. Happ is a tall, lanky pitcher (6′5, 205 lbs) but doesn’t throw very hard, with his fastball topping out around 91, and consistently hitting 88-90. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in command, which is evident in his 2.80 BB/9 rate between A+ and AA in 2006. Though he lacks “dominant stuff”, Happ was able to generate quite a few swings and misses, 9.22 K/9, over both levels, and even more importantly, he kept the ball in the park, allowing only 11 HR in 154.2 IP, including only 2 in 74.2 IP at double A Reading. While Happ doesn’t offer much in the way of projectability, as he’s already 23 and doesn’t look to add more velocity, he does have a good feel for pitching. Normally AA is the biggest test for a pitcher, and Happ passed his first test, posting better numbers across the board at Reading than in Clearwater. You hate comparing a non-flaming throwing lefty to Tom Glavine, but if Happ can mantain his command as he climbs the ladder, he can become a reliable middle of the rotation starter. Prediction: (AAA), 105 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.15 BB/9, 9.25 K/9, 0.45 HR/9 (MLB), 50 IP, 4.15 ERA, 3.65 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 1.15 HR/9
Kyle Drabek, RHP. Consider Mr Drabek the anti-JA Happ. Much was made of Drabek’s off the field issues leading up to the draft, but few doubted his ability on the field. Drabek dominated on the mound in high school, pitching in the baseball hotbed of Texas, and led his team, The Woodlands, to numerous championships, both with his arm and bat. Drabek’s number one asset might just be his athletic ability, as he was one of the top rated shortstops in the 2006 draft, as well as the second rated high school arm behind Clayton Kershaw. He dropped to the Phillies because of the aforementioned off the field concerns, but the Phillies felt he was worth the risk. His pro debut was less than ideal, but has been attributed to things ranging from immaturity to a heavy high school workload. Drabek went to the Florida Instructional League with fellow draftee Dan Brauer, and reports were that he responded well to the regiments involved with playing professional baseball. Prediction: (SS) 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 4.15 BB/9, 10.50 K/9, 1.00 HR/9, (A-) 35.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.00 BB/9, 7.75 K/9, 1.25 HR/9
D’Arby Myers, OF. Myers fits the mold of the toolsy guys the Phillies love, and as you can probably figure out from my previous comments, I was skeptical upon his selection, as I am with all outfielders like him. In the 4th round, I felt like it was too early to start “buying lottery tickets”, but I think the Phillies might have picked a winner here. Myers played the entire GCL season at the age of 17, and had arguably the most impressive debut of any Phillies draftee, putting up a line of .313/.353/.430. That may not seem significant, but for a guy with very raw baseball skills, at a very young age, it’s quite an accomplishment. Myers oozes potential and projection, with plus speed, potential for plus power, and a good arm. He still needs to “learn” the more advanced baseball skills like route running and pitch selection at the plate, but his debut showed that he might be further along in this process than most toolsy guys. Myers did a good job of keeping the ball out of the air and using his speed to his advantage. He was 11/15 in SB’s, which again, is quite solid for a guy just learning how to play the game. The Phillies could challenge him by assigning him to Lakewood, meaning he’d be one of the youngest players in the league, but he might start at short season Williamsport. I’ll do two predictions for him, one assuming he starts at Williamsport, one assuming he starts at Lakewood. Prediction 1: (SS), .325/.375/.450, (A-) .280/.340/.400 Prediction 2: (A-) .270/.335/.425, 30 SB
Josh Outman, LHP. Outman, in addition to having one of the best baseball names possible, looks like one of the Phillies best picks in the 2005 draft. His 2005 debut was good, if not above average, and his 2006 saw an improvement in just about every peripheral category. His walk rate still needs some work (4.35 BB/9), but his K rate (9.33/9) and HR rate (0.29/9) were both well above average. Outman is slightly old for low A, but the Phillies apparently wanted to keep the core of the team together as they made a playoff push, which means Outman is a candidate for a double jump to Reading in 2007. He possesses above average velocity for a lefty, hitting 94 and working around 91-92 consistently. His changeup lags behind his fastball and slider, but is improving. Outman’s overall line, 155.2 IP, 6.89 H/9, 4.35 BB/9, 9.33 K/9, 0.29 HR/9 is impressive, but his line from July-September is even more impressive, at 72.2 IP, 5.73 H/9, 3.61 BB/9, 9.97 K/9, 0.25 HR/9. If he continues to improve his control, he will quickly move up the prospect lists. The Phillies should challenge him with a double jump since he is a college pitcher and is 22. Prediction: (AA), 163 IP, 3.00 ERA, 7.45 H/9, 3.75 BB/9, 8.85 K/9, 0.65 HR/9
Edgar Garcia, RHP. Garcia was highly touted when he signed in 2004 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic. At 6′2, 190lbs, he has room for projection, and already throws in the low 90’s. While he was at the forefront of prospect chatter in 2004 and 2005, he seemed to fade out of the limelight a bit in 2006, yet he continued to produce on the field, putting up a line of 66.1 IP, 8.41 H/9, 1.36 BB/9, 6.24 K/9, 0.68 HR/9 at Batavia. Many people point to his low K rate as a red flag, but in this writer’s opinion, that criticism is a tad overrated. Garcia has outstanding control and feel for his changeup, which as previously stated, is rare for young, raw pitchers. Garcia allowed only 18 extra base hits (13 2B and 5 HR) in 66.1 IP, good for a .369 slugging against. He also induced 87 groundballs, as opposed to 69 flyballs, and also induced 20 pop ups. This data would lead you to believe guys aren’t getting good swings against Garcia. He was equally tough on lefties and righties, and allowed only 1 HR to lefthanded batters, which speaks to the strength of his changeup. Garcia is underrated on other prospect lists, in my opinion, and has the potential to put up a solid season in the Sally League in 2007 at age 19. Prediction: (A-), 150 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.90 BB/9, 7.00 K/9, 0.85 HR/9
Scott Mathieson, RHP. Mathieson underwent Tommy John surgery in November, which is one of the main reasons he slid down the list a bit. If 100% healthy, he’d probably rank 5th on my list. Mathieson throws a mid 90’s fastball, but it lacks movement, which means he needs to command it in the zone to be effective. His changeup is average, and he’s worked with both a curve and a slider, eventually settling on a slider. While he was able to dominate minor league hitters with his offspeed stuff, he didn’t experience the same success at the big league level. Throughout his minor league career, his control improved at every level, but when he jumped to Philly, he saw all of his peripherals take a hit, which isn’t a surprise. He will miss all of 2007 and could make it back in time for the Arizona Fall League next year, but more likely won’t pitch until spring training 2008. Mathieson is still a prospect, but he will remain outside of the top 5 until we see what he looks like post surgery. If he adds velocity, like many TJ survivors do, he could consistently throw 95-96 and hit 98. If that’s the case, he profiles as a middle of the rotation starter or potential closer. He will be 23 this year in spring training, which puts him at 24 when he is recovered from surgery, and he’ll more than likely start in AAA and be the first callup, or he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in spring training. Prediction: Won’t pitch in 2007.
Jason Jaramillo, C. I’ll qualify this selection, and the #10 selection, by saying that the difference between my 9th and 13th ranked prospects on this list is real small, and most guys are interchangeable. Jaramillo’s offense has been suspect, and he struggled at AA Reading in 2006, putting up a .708 OPS in his age 23 season. Jaramillo raked in college, with a .900+ OPS, but has struggled since reaching full season ball in 2005. While his bat won’t get him to the big leagues, his glove and presence behind the plate probably will. Scouts rave about his game calling ability and his arm strength, and that’s where his future lies. Catcher is not a notoriously big offensive position, but the Phillies also appear to have little patience when it comes to rookie catchers, though the organization does appear to be high on Jaramillo’s future. As a starting catcher, he probably won’t hit more than .250/.330/.450, but if he’s hit 8th in the lineup and his strong defensive presence carries over, he’ll have a fine major league career. Prediction: (AAA), .260/.350/.445, 13 HR
Andrew Carpenter, RHP. Carpenter flew under the radar after being drafted, as his debut was delayed until the end of the summer, possibly because of his heavy college workload. Carpenter doesn’t possess outstanding stuff, with just a 91-94 mph fastball, average change and average curve, but he has superb command (1.53 BB/9 in college) and his K rate is good enough (7.57 in college), while his home run suppression looks just fine, at 0.31 HR/9 in college. He only pitched 11.2 innings at Batavia, so it’s tough to draw any real conclusions there, but he allowed only 1 ER in his 3 short starts. As a 3 year senior, Carpenter figures to move quickly through the system. He’ll likely start at Lakewood, but could possibly start at Clearwater and reach Reading by mid summer. For my prediction, I’ll assume he starts at Lakewood. Prediction: (A-), 65.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 3.10 BB/9, 7.50 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, (AA), 75.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 2.90 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 0.85 HR/9
11-15, brief blurbs:
Matt Maloney, LHP: Maloney is another control lefty who offers little in the way of projection going forward. He throws in the mid 80’s but has good command. He’ll more than likely end up a 5th starter at best, and more likely be a candidate for the bullpen, but his 2006 numbers at Lakewood can’t be completely discounted.
Dan Brauer, LHP: Brauer is another control lefty, but he slid in the draft because of labrum surgery in 2004. He appears completely recovered, and had a solid season at short season Batavia. His stuff is on par with Happ’s, maybe a tick better, and could eventually be a middle of the rotation starter or top lefthanded reliever. He’ll more than likely start at Lakewood and move to Reading by midseason.
Zach Segovia, RHP. Segovia ranks behind Maloney and Brauer because he is right handed, and has similar stuff, with lefties being in slightly higher demand. He is 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery and looks to be fully healthy. Conditioning is an issue, and at this point his best bet for future success might be a 7th inning role, almost in the Geoff Geary mold.
Jesus Sanchez, C. Sanchez was part of the Bobby Abreu debacle, and was ranked the best defensive catcher in the GCL in 2006. He played the season at age 18, and will play 2007 at age 19, probably at short season Williamsport. He’s a strong defensive catcher already, while still raw offensively. He has solid projectability, he just needs to translate his tools to results.
Mike Costanzo, 3B. Costanzo is a guy I want to like, but he has numerous issues in his game that need to be resolved quickly if he’s going to become a major leaguer. His walk rate has improved as he’s progressed through pro ball, but he strikes out a ton, and at this point, he isn’t generating much power, with only 25 HR in 785 pro AB’s. If he’d put up those numbers as an 18/19 year old, you could shrug it off, but he played 3 years of college ball, and should be making better progress at this point. He’ll start 2007 in AA, and this seems like it could be a make or break year for him, at age 23.
