Phuture Phillies

We are now just over one month into the season and the Threshers have an 12-20 record so far. Over the last week the team faced the Ft. Myers Miracle for three games, followed by a four-game set with their first Eastern Division opponent of the year, the Brevard County Manatees. The Miracle began the Threshers week by sweeping them to give the Miracle a perfect 9-0 record against the Threshers this year, but the Threshers faired better against the Manatees with a 3-1 series record.

The team began the season with the pitchers leading the team in production, and the hitters lagging way behind. As the season has progressed the hitters have begun to get on track while the pitching has seen their stats fall in the league standings. The offense has the fourth best batting average in the league up from last place after week one, while the pitching has seen their ERA go from third best in the league after week one to the third worst at present.

Despite the good batting average the team has still got room for improvement. They are dead last in the league in all extra base hit categories, and have scored the third fewest runs as a result. On the positive side though, the hitters have the second most walks in the league and the second fewest strikeouts ranking them third in the league in OBP. As for the pitchers the team has the second most strikeouts in the league with 254, but has also allowed the second most walks with 122. Also the team lost their early season ace Antonio Bastardo to the AA Reading Phillies and has seen starter Carlos Monasterios placed on the DL this week. Read the rest of this entry »

Well last week’s report contained 8 games due to a 10:30 am game on Wednesday last week, so this week’s report includes only 5 games because of a day off for the league on Tuesday this week. Of course the big story for the week was Antonio Bastardo’s line in his game this past week. Overall the team went 2-3 on the week winning it’s last two games making it the first time this season the team has won two games in a row.

The offense has come to life a bit as of late coming up from last in the league in team batting average after week one, and next to last in batting average after week two to fourth (of twelve teams) in batting average currently. The offense has drawn the second most walks in the league, and has struck out fewer than all but one team in the league. Unfortunately the team is hitting without any power at all. The offense is last in slugging percentage, and in all XBH categories, last is RBIs, and next to last in runs scored as a result. (The odd thing is the team with the fewest runs in the league, the Tampa Yankees, are only one game out of first in the division.)

For the most part pitching remains the team’s strength and they lead the league with four shut outs so far this year, and have allowed the second fewest runs. The team has the third most strikeouts in the league with 197, but has also allowed the second most walks with 99. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now six games into this young season with the Threshers off to a slow start at 2-4 on the year. Five players: Adrian Cardenas, Quintin Berry, Gus Milner, Matt Spencer, and John Urick have played in every game, while six different pitchers: Joe Savery, Carlos Monasterio, Antonio Bastardo, Darren Byrd, Edgar Garcia and Dan Brauer have been handed the ball to start a game.

So far Adrian Cardenas has stolen the show for the team as he has hit safely in all but one of the games including a 3-4 and a 4-5 effort. He is currently hitting .417 with 3 doubles, a stolen base and a team best 4 runs scored. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Monday to you. If you’ve been following along for a while now, you know that I’m generally critical of the current front office. But even I didn’t think they were capable of screwing up the Paul Owens Award, given to the Phillies minor league hitter and pitcher for the year. But, they did screw it up, again. As announced here (scroll down), the 2007 winners were Mike Zagurski and Quintin Berry. I’d LOVE someone to explain these choices. Berry had a nice season, he elevated his prospect status, but come on. Jason Donald put up better numbers at a higher level at the same age. Mike Costanzo had a huge second half at a higher level. Adrian Cardenas had a better season at the same level at a much younger age. And while Berry seems like a mistake, the Zagurski decision is indefensible, just like it was indefensible to give the award to Robinson Tejeda in the season where he spent a lot of time in the majors. Zagurski put up great numbers in the minors, but spent a good bit of time with the big league club, and he finished the season on the DL. Andrew Carpenter’s season wasn’t better? Josh Outman’s season wasn’t more impressive?

A true head scratcher, but that’s becoming common place for this organization.

Happy Friday. I don’t have a lot of time today, so only two writeups but we’re in the lower levels now, so most writeups will be shorter, because there’s less of a history to discuss. After I finish the rest of the grades, I’ll be posting a summary of all the grades based on position, and I’ll open it up to final suggestions and tweaks. I’m also working on a prediction equation to try and come up with more exact predictions to replace the lame guesses I made in my Top 10 Prospects writeup. But, here are today’s entries.

Milner, Gus, OF (age 22) Grade = C+

Milner, a 14th round pick in 2006, had a decent campaign at Batavia, posting a .725 OPS, which isn’t great, but was still about 24% above league average, all things considered. Milner despite being HUGE, (6′5, 240 lbs), played CF in college, and apparently played it well, which means that when he moves, he might move to RF, not automatically to 1B. Milner is a great athlete with great size, but based on his offensive numbers, is far from a finished product. He did log 6 triples in 70 games, but only stole 4 bases in 7 attempts. I like the upside on Milner, but he was 22 and will be 23 in 2007, so he needs to have a big year at Lakewood, along the lines of Jeremy Slayden’s 2006, in order for him to improve his grade.

Ceiling: Who knows, at this point. With his frame and athletic ability, he could be a Vlad Guerrero type, or he could be a complete dud. Until he has at least one full season of pro ball, it’s impossible to know.

Floor: Like most toolsy guys, his floor is really low.

Conclusion: If you love tools, you probably think Milner has a good chance. If you like numbers, well, he was old for the league, but was still above average. If Milner remains in RF, the offensive requirements are a tick lower than at 1B. Again, he needs to have a big year at Lakewood because of his age.

Berry, Quintin, OF (age 22) Grade = C

All things considered, Berry is probably a better prospect than Milner, but because his performance was so much worse at Batavia, I gave him a half grade lower than Milner. Berry was taken by the Phillies in the 5th round of the 2006 draft, adding to the many OF the Phillies took in the first 15 rounds. Berry was a very well thought of talent entering his sophomore year at San Diego State before being forced to have labrum surgery, which greatly impacted his development. He has great physical tools, and studied under one of the greatest hitters in history, San Diego State coach Tony Gwynn, but he didn’t apply those tools, maybe because he still isn’t healthy. Berry’s speed is his single best asset at this point, as he stole 19 of 23 bases at Batavia. If he indeed 100% recovered now, he might surprise some non-believers at Lakewood in 2007. He’ll probably open in RF if D’Arby Myers makes the Lakewood squad.

Ceiling: A baseball player who can run, hit and catch. Specific, huh?

Floor: See Milner, Gus.

Conclusion: As with all toolsy outfielders, temper expectations. One half season doesn’t tell us much about a player, especially a season in which he was recovering from major surgery. Chances are, had he not hurt his shoulder, he’d have gone in the 2nd or 3rd round, so the Phillies may have gotten a steal here, if he does pan out.

Quintin Berry, OF
Signed: 2006 (5th Round)
Debut: 2006 [SS, Batavia]

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A speedy outfielder with a contact-oriented approach could find a worse fit for a coach than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. Berry grew up a fan of Gwynn and the Padres and has blossomed under his coach. After three seasons, he has a game similar to that of Gwynn’s son Anthony, now in the Brewers farm system. Berry’s best tool is speed, and while he’s had some jaw-dropping times on bunts (3.9 seconds to first base), he’s more consistently above-average rather than a true burner. Berry remains raw on the basepaths, with the short game of bunting and making consistent contact, and in the field, as he lacks the instincts of other Southern California products. He has improved in those areas and impressed scouts by playing through a shoulder injury as a sophomore. He had offseason labrum surgery, preventing him from playing summer ball in 2005, and his arm remained below-average this year after his return. Berry has solid-average bat speed and enough pop that he won’t be just a slap hitter if he gets stronger.

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