Phuture Phillies » 4. Lakewood

Game review from Lakewood – 6 July 2011

phuturephillies — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 16:32:13 +0000

This was posted in the comments section of yesterday’s box score recap, and I think it definitely merits its own post. Thanks to “nyphilsmaniac” for the first hand account. Check below the fold

LAKEWOOD REPORT from WED, JULY 6:
It is pretty obvious that the story of the day was Lisalberto Bonilla- I can’t tell you how impressive he was (but I will try). Let’s start with the filler part of our program (the offense)…Hewitt, Mattair and Santana looked awful at the plate. Santana did reach on an error on a hard hit ball to 3B but that was the extent of it. Top hitters on the day were Collier with 2 hits (both off a soft-tossing lefty named Ray that we couldn’t generate much against) and Duran with 2 hits. Bad news is Collier had issues on the bases getting picked off when he left early on a steal against said lefty. Edgar Duran hit the ball hard- he singled in the first. The Hagarstown 3rd baseman dove and got a piece of it but it rolled into LF, Duran tried for 2nd but got gunned out. Edgar ended up being the hero with a hard line single down the LF line after Rupp had opened the 10th with a nice single up the middle (backup catcher Lanning ran for Rupp and scored the winning run). Duran’s winning hit came batting lefty and he went with the pitch nicely. Someone asked about Rupp’s defense. If you haven’t seen him, his body is like a barrel- he has some of the shortest and thickest legs you will see on a ballplayer. Hard to believe as thick as he is that is really 6-1. He did a nice job behind the plate and threw out a runner trying to steal.

Now let’s get to the really good stuff. Bonilla was absolutely amazing. I am not going to pretend to be a pro scout but this kid looked special. In the first inning he struck out the side on 10 pitches (2 swinging, 1 looking). He has a nasty slider that dives down that the Hagarstown guys were swinging over by a wide margin. Then all of the sudden he starts using this change up that had them baffled as well. He had a very large number of swings/misses with both of those off-speed offerings. In inning #2 he did not throw a single ball and got them out 1-2-3. Inning #3 was also 1-2-3 with 2 K’s and a foul popout to the catcher. The first hit was actually a bunt single in the 4th by the leadoff man that was a close play at 1st, but Bonilla cruised through the rest of the inning. In the 5th, he got in trouble with 1st and 3rd but calmly pitched out of it. He continued to dominate all the way through the 8th. I was surprised that Truby sent him out for the 9th (the game was still scoreless) and sure enough after a groundout, the next two batters got on (clean single and then a bunt where Bonilla tried to field and tag the runner but dropped the ball, after picking it up he flipped to first but was too late and Murphy dropped the ball anyway). When Truby came out to the mound, I was sure that would be all for Bonilla. Nope sportsfans, he talked his way into staying out there (assuming he speaks English), and proceeded to induce an inning- ending 6-4-3 DP. Sadly, the Claws did not score in the 9th and get Lisalberto the win he deserved.

Lendy Castillo pitched a nice 10th and then Duran sent the fans home happy with the winning base hit! As far as Bonilla, in the first inning he threw a good amount of fastballs (varied from 88- to an occasional 93) and only used the slider for an out-pitch. As the game wore on, he threw fewer and fewer fastballs and had less velocity on most of them but he had them baffled with the slider and changeup. Suddenly late in the game (it was a very hot afternoon), he reached back and threw 90′s again even matching his high for the day with a 93 mph fastball in the 9th inning. All in all, it was a masterful performance- he had Hagarstown guessing all day long (and usually guessing wrong). His mixing of pitches was great and he seemed to be able to throw any pitch at any time in the count for a strike. Unfortunately, the milb.com boxscore doesn’t say how many strikes and pitches he threw but I can assure you it was an impressive ratio.

A Look at Lakewood, volume 2.0

phuturephillies — Sun, 08 May 2011 15:42:21 +0000

Its been close to two weeks, so lets take a look at Lakewood’s progress since my last write-up. I wanted to write more before the fold, just so there was some text and it didn’t look like just a link. And I was struggling to think of what to write. But then it came to me. When looking at statistics, the common question is “when do we know if this means something” in terms of sample size and relevance. Eric Seidman, who writes at lots of places including Fangraphs and his new Phillies site, Brotherly Glove, had an excellent piece on Frangraphs two years ago which covers this very topic. His piece is actually a simplification (much needed) of a longer, more stats heavy article. Read it here. As you can see from his list, we’re still not in the stabilization range for the statistics that I think are important when looking at prospects. That said, we’re getting close in some cases, and its fun to look at where we stand. So lets get to it.

Its still a long road back to push for the first half title, as the team is 6 games back.

The offense is still struggling. Current ranks

OPS: 11th out of 14
BA: 12th out of 14
OB%: 14th out of 14
SLG%: 9th out of 14
SB: 4th out of 14

Interestingly (well, kind of) their team OPS is actually UP from the last time we spoke, as they were at just .655 10 days ago. So, improvement, yes? Still a ways to go.

The pitching is still the strength of the team, and the class of the SAL.

ERA: 1st of 14
WHIP: t1st of 14
K: 5th of 14
BB: 9th of 14

Now lets look at the team on an individual level

* From 2008 to 2010, Anthony Hewitt’s best season line was .223/.255/.395 in 247 PA at Williamsport in 2009. This year, he’s at .247/.305/.464 in 105 PA in a repeat of Lakewood. Yes, he’s striking out a ton (38 times in 105 PA, 36%) but he’s drawn 5 walks in those 105 PA (4.7%), and while that may not seem significant, last year he drew a total of 13 walks in 465 PA, a rate of just 2.8%. Its improvement. Very small improvement. But more importantly, he’s actually hitting for power this year, with a .217 ISO. That is actual reason for excitement. He is 22. He is repeating a level. But this is encouraging. Everyone focuses on the ideal developmental path, one level per year, in AA by 22, etc etc. And while that is normal, Hewitt is obviously a project, and the Phillies knew this when they drafted him. I’m sure they hoped he’d be in Clearwater by now. But with any long term project, you have to focus on the short term. Hewitt will have to be put on the 40 man roster after this year, or be subjected to the Rule 5 draft, as he was 19 when drafted, but I don’t envision anyone taking him, considering his rawness, so the Phillies shouldn’t have to worry about this. Still, if he maintain’s his power and can keep his walk rate at 5%, he’s not finished as a semi-interesting prospect.

* The trio of Aaron Altherr, Domingo Santana, and Cameron Rupp have been major disappointments. I didn’t fully jump on the Altherr bandwagon this winter, as I had reservations, and they’ve come to fruition thus far. That said, I was bullish on Cameron Rupp, and it appears he’s having trouble adjusting to pro pitching. He has, however, thrown out 32% of would be base stealers, and that’s definitely a positive. Altherr has been abysmal against LHP, hitting just .133/.222/.356 in 15 AB, which is odd, because he’s righthanded. Still, he’s batting just .203/.272/.284 against righties in 74 AB. In total, its just 89 AB, so its not statistically significant, but it’s starting to become slightly concerning. In 77 plate appearances, Domingo Santana has struck out 27 times (35% of the time) while drawing just 4 walks. Discouraging, but again, he’s so young, you have no choice but to be patient. Given his age, he could still be in extended spring training waiting to get his first taste of the GCL. Still. Concerning.

* The best hitter on the squad (outside of minor league vet Jim Murphy) is Geancarlo Mendez, an under the radar signing out of the Dominican Republic in December 2007. Mendez couldn’t have gotten more than $25K to sign, as he received very little attention, and spent a bunch of time in the DSL before coming to the US last year. Andy mentioned him in his 2008 and 2009 DSL wrap-ups, but he wasn’t a highly touted guy. He’ll play the entire 2011 season at age 21, and so far he’s off to a nice start, hitting .308/.372/.436 in 87 PA. His 8 walks and 12 strikeouts are good, and though he doesn’t have a home run, he has 8 extra base hits and he’s 6 for 6 in stolen bases. He’s playing 3B after spending time at 1B, 2B and LF the last 3 seasons. At 6’2/170 he has the frame for the infield, but he’s probably maxed out physically, which raises questions about his long term power potential. Still, a name to watch.

Now, the pitchers

* David Buchanan leads the staff in both innings (40.2) and ERA (1.74), and has shown great control, with just 6 walks allowed in his 40.2 innings. As a 21 year old, he should be pitching well, and he certainly is. I would like to see him missing more bats, as he has just 26 strikeouts thus far. He’s yet to allow a home run, but isn’t a big groundball guy (0.93 GO to AO) so that is something to monitor.

* Garrett Claypool, another college righty, leads the staff in strikeouts with 29 in just 23 IP. He’s been a bit uneven thus far, but in his last two outings he’s gone 10 innings, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher (0.29 GO to AO), which could cause problems at the next level. He hides the ball well, and that deception should help him, but he’s going to have to miss a lot of bats and limit his walks to be successful.

* After a good debut, Jesse Biddle posted 3 below average starts, but he rebounded nicely last time out, going 5 innings, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 2 BB while striking out 4. In his previous 2 starts he racked up tons of groundballs, but kept the ball mostly in the air last time out. Its a small sample, so we’ll wait and see how it shakes out. I’ve expressed my optimism on Biddle before, and that remains.

Thats it for this report. Hopefully as the weather warms up, the performances of the Lakewood team do as well.

A Look at Lakewood, v 1.0

phuturephillies — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 04:04:00 +0000

Hey all. As I mentioned when the season was kicking off, I’m going to come off the bench and write the Lakewood report this year. I’ve been waiting to try and accumulate some data to look at, and going forward I anticipate doing this every week or every other week, not sure what day of the week, but that’s a minor detail. I’m going to give a statistical overview, and then some thoughts on the squad and pass along any tidbits I can find. So far, I haven’t done much digging on our guys there, simply because its only been a few weeks. But I hope to have more on that as the season progresses. So, let’s get after it.

First, the team perspective. Quick note. I started working on this before all of the games were complete, so these numbers might be slightly different. You’ll have to make due, sorry!

If the image doesn’t display properly, click here.

So. A mixed bag, yes? The offense has been putrid across the board, but the pitching has been outstanding. Lakewood’s park has gotten a reputation as a pitcher’s park, which no doubt helps, but there have been a number of solid performances. Quick breakdown of the ranks

Offense

Avg: .232 (14 of 14)
OB%: .285 (14 of 14)
Slg%: .370 (11 of 14)
SB: 18 (6 of 14)

small ball! blech.

Pitching

IP: 145.1 (13 of 14)
ERA: 3.56 (1 of 14)
WHIP: 1.36 (6 of 14)
K: 120 (8 of 14)

Now, lets look at individual player performances

click here for the image if its unreadable

This isn’t a pretty picture. At all. Domingo Santana is hitting for a bit of power, but striking out at an alarming pace, even by his standards. Cameron Rupp, a guy I was really high on this season, has gotten off to a slow start. I’ve gotten very good reports on his defense, so I’m not too worried, but still, it would be nice to see him hit a bit. Aaron Altherr and Zach Collier have been brutal. Its early days, so we won’t panic yet, and 50 AB isn’t really enough to confirm any sort of hypothesis. But its not pretty.

click here if need be.

Mario Hollands has come out of the gate strong. I’d like to see him tick up his GB rate (1.13) but not a lot to complain about. As a college pitcher, he should be doing well, and he is. Colby Shreve has had control issues, and getting knocked around issues, as he’s given up 20 hits and 3 HR in just 13 IP. I’m not worried about Jesse Biddle’s slow start. Not only do we have Brody Colvin from a year ago as a guide, but Biddle is even more inexperienced due to where he played his amateur baseball. Lets check back in June on him. Eric Pettis is pitching decently, but not missing many bats early. But its early.

Summary: So, in summary. Pitching, pretty good, hitting, pretty bad. 50 AB and 15-20 IP is insignificant statistically, so there is no reason to panic on any front. Some guys are shaking off the injury related rust, some guys are starting their first pro season, and some guys weren’t expected to produce anyway. We haven’t really learned anything new yet, but its good to take a snapshot now and then come back to it later.

Clearwater and Lakewood Rosters

gregg — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 00:21:08 +0000

Clearwater: Catchers: Sebastain Valle, Kyle Lafrenz, Joel Naughton

Infield: Joe Savery, Cesar Hernandez, Troy Hanzawa, Travis Mattair, Darin Ruf, Alan Schoenberger

Outfield: Leandro Castro, Jiwan James, Jonathan Singleton, D’Arby Myers, Brian Gump

SP: Jarar Cosart, Brody Colvin, Trevor May, Jon Pettibone,Julio Rodriguez

RP: Tyler Cloyd, Jordan Ellis, Joe Esposito, Justin Friend, Derrick Loop, Ebelin Lugo, Jordan Whatcott

Lakewood:

Catcher: Cameron Rupp and Torre Langley

Infield: James Murphy, Jeremy Barnes, Edgar Duran, Geancarlo Mendez, Carlos Perdomo, Stephen Batts

Outfield: Aaron Altherr, Miguel ALvarez, Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt, Domingo Santana

SP: Jesse Biddle, David Buchanan, Colby Shreve, Eric Pettis, Mario Hollands

RP: Jake Borup, Garrett Claypool, CHase Johnson, Tyler Knigge, Ervis Manzanillo, Bryan Morgado, Juan Sosa

Lakewood SAL Championship, Game 4 Wrap

Puko — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 11:32:45 +0000

Back-to-back, baby! Lakewood finished off an historic season with a 4-2 win over Greenville to win their second straight SAL title while becoming the first SAL team to win a league title after winning their division in both halves of the season. Sebastian Valle’s three-run jack in the fifth was the difference. Jonathan Pettibone got the win and Josh Zeid (11 up, 12 down) picked up the save. I’ll be back later in the week with a year-end wrap.

Boxscore

MILB.com Game Story

Asbury Park Press Game Story