The deal, as reported here by Ken Rosenthal, is Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco for Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson.

For Indians fans who find my site via google, here are some links for you to find info on the prospects you’re getting.

Carlos Carrasco
Jason Knapp
Jason Donald
Lou Marson

You can also find weekly updates on these guys by checking the Lehigh Valley (AAA) reports here. Check below the fold for my take on this deal

First, what the Phillies are getting. Cliff Lee, the 2008 Cy Young winner, bounced back from a rough patch in 2007. Always a good prospect, he has excellent control and is very durable. He’s incredibly consistent from start to start and is a very reliable number #1B guy to slot in with Cole Hamels. He makes only $5.75M this year, and has a team option worth $9M next year which will almost certainly be exercised. He’s 30, turns 31 next month, and is in the prime of his career. Is he Roy Halladay? Not quite, but he’s really not far off. They’re both under control in 2010, and Lee is much cheaper.

Ben Francisco addresses the need for a legit RH bat on the bench. He’s only 27, and hasn’t really emerged as the starting OF he was projected to be, but he still hits lefties well (.845 OPS this year, .810 for his career), and he’s still got some room to grow. Francisco has only 920 PA’s in the majors, and he’s not going to get a chance to play every day here, but he has some potential. Francisco will have less than 3 years of service time after this season and won’t be a Super 2, so he’ll be very cheap.

Now, onto what the Phillies gave up.

In my preseason Top 30, I had them ranked as follows; Carrasco (#1), Marson (#2), Donald (#4), and Knapp (#14). These rankings have obviously changed. The Phillies Top 3 right now is Drabek, Brown and Taylor in some order, depending on your preference, and Knapp may or may not have moved ahead of Carrasco. So, looking at this from just a really broad level, the Phillies did not trade any of their top 3 prospects, but they did give up 4 guys who still figured to be in the Top 8 or 10. For those who just found the site and aren’t familiar with the system, here’s a very brief synopsis before you dig into those links above

Carlos Carrasco, RHP – Has been on the Phillies prospect lists seemingly forever, but is still only 22. Has had mixed results at AAA this year, has a good arm, above average fastball, but his secondary pitches are still lacking polish. Throws a changeup with lots of late fade and a 12-6 curveball, but has recently started working on a slider. Biggest knock on him is his mental approach on the mound.

Jason Donald, SS/3B – Had a big season last year in AA, 15 HR power or so, but a line drive swing with lots of doubles, and showed the ability to work the count and take a walk. His range is fringy at best at SS, could maybe play 2B, but had spent some time at 3B because of a need in Philly and being blocked by Rollins and Utley up the middle.

Lou Marson, C – Young catcher, had a big breakthrough offensively in AA last year. Has maybe the best plate discipline in the system, draws tons of walks despite not having much power. Looks like an 8-10 HR a year guy but a line drive swing produces lots of doubles.

Jason Knapp, RHP – Made as big a jump as anyone in the system this year. Huge arm, already sits in the 93-94 range, can hit 97, and could add even more velocity in the future. Very projectable frame, secondary pitches need work, which is the case for most 18 year olds in full season ball. He’s on the DL with “shoulder fatigue”, but consensus seems to be just a precaution to keep some innings off his arm at a young age.

So, now you know who is involved. My thoughts? This is a clear win for the Phillies. They pick up a top of the rotation starter signed to a very affordable deal both this year and next, and also pick up the RH bat for the bench they’d been searching for. They were able to protect their three best prospects in the deal as well. This type of trade is the reason that you don’t trade guys like Jason Donald for middle relievers, because if you accumulate enough 2nd tier prospects, you can package those guys together for a bigger deal. The Phillies did lose 4 good prospects, 4 guys with a chance to be big league regulars, but they added a Cy Young winner to their pitching staff, plus an OF under club control for 4 more years. This trade really couldn’t have been drawn up any better from the Phillies side.

This trade is a big big win for Ruben Amaro. You have to give him credit for not blinking when JP Ricciardi postured over Halladay. I’m excited.

Update: Jim Callis said it perfectly in his chat

What makes Drabek worth not getting Halladay?

Jim Callis (2:37 PM) Drabek’s fastball and curveball give him the potential to be a frontline starter. But it’s not like it was a done deal if they included Drabek. Look at it as the Phillies had an option of a) Lee, Drabek, Happ, Brown/Taylor or b) Halladay, Carrasco, Marson, Donald. I’d do just what the Phillies did.

D’Arnaud was drafted in 2007, so we have two summers worth of data on him. Marson has obviously been around longer, so we have more of a track record on him. Let’s start from square 1. Marson was ranked the 6th best prospect in Arizona in the 2004 draft, and BA said this about him

• C Louis Marson and RHP Craig Heyer, batterymates at Coronado High, elevated their draft stock and could be picked in the first seven to 10 rounds. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound Marson has been catching for only a year and made significant strides. He also has a near-perfect physique for the position. Heyer has plenty of upside in his 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame, along with a good fastball/slider mix.

So they noted he was raw defensively, but had a good build for the position. His athleticism has always been noted as a big plus in his profile. The Phillies took Marson in the 4th round, and his debut showed a line of

126 PA — .257/.333/.389 — 3 2B — 4 HR — 13 BB — 18 K

He had already showed promising plate discipline, and actually hit 4 HR in just 126 PA, but that ratio would begin to drop as we’ve seen. For his second season, he again played in a short season league, this time moving up to Batavia. In 252 PA’s, he put up this line

252 PA — .245/.329/.391 — 11 2B — 5 HR — 27 BB — 52 K

Again he showed good plate discipline, but he struggled with the bat in a very pitcher friendly league. His ISO went from .132 to .146, and his walk rate went from 10.3% to 10.7%. Those were both improvements, and both reasons for optimism underneath what looked like a pedestrian stat line.

Now lets shift gears and look at D’Arnaud. He was rated the 8th best prospect in California, a more traditional baseball hotbed, and the 49th best prospect in the entire country. BA had this to say about him

Scouting Report: In several ways, d’Arnaud resembles his older brother Chase, a two-year starter at third base for Pepperdine, and Travis has also committed to play for the Waves. Chances are he won’t get to school, though, because he’s a more athletic version of his brother with premium catch-and-throw skills behind the plate and a more advanced bat. While he’s still a streak hitter, d’Arnaud has showed an improved ability to stay inside the ball and drive it to all fields. It’s a quick, line-drive swing for the most part, but he has shown some loft power, with seven home runs, and he ranked among state leaders in RBIs. Defensively, he grades as above-average as both a receiver and thrower, with a plus arm, soft hands and quick feet. While he’s athletic enough to play an infield spot, he’s too good behind the plate–consistently getting his throws to second base in 1.9 seconds–to move.

Obviously a big difference in the writeups on both guys. D’Arnaud had a pedigree as a catcher, and his potential behind the plate is what got him drafted in the compensation round. In his debut after being drafted, as the Phillies did with Marson, he was sent to the GCL where he produced this line

151 PA — .241/.278/.348 — 3 2B — 4 HR — 4 BB — 23 K

He obviously struggled with the stick. His four walks compared with the 23 strikeouts indicated some struggles adapting to wood bats. Like Marson, the Phillies sent him to short season ball to begin his 2nd pro season, but unlike Sweet Lou, he would finish the season at Lakewood.

SS: 197 PA — .309/.371/.463 — 13 2B — 4 HR — 18 BB — 29 K
A: 70 PA — .297/.357/.469 — 5 2B — 2 HR — 5 BB — 10 K

What you see here is a huge leap forward in his walk rate (2.6% in 2007, 8.6% in 2008) and the solid ISO numbers.

The big takeaway from this, in my opinion at least, is that D’Arnaud’s improvements from his debut to his second season were more drastic than Marson’s. D’Arnaud hit over .300 in his second season, flashed good raw power (.172 ISO at Lakewood), and already was lauded for his defensive abilities. Marson’s secondary skills were evident after his first two seasons, but he didn’t show that rapid spike improvement. At this point, Marson has shown more at a higher level (obviously, he has 3 years experience on D’Arnaud), but you can see why scouts and evaluators are touting D’Arnaud. If you’re considering only ceiling, then I think its perfectly reasonable to rank D’Arnaud ahead of Marson. But Marson’s proximity to the majors still gives him a slight edge for me.

Link.

We’ll start with Michael Taylor. The choice here came down to Taylor and Jason Donald. I was actually ready to take Donald, but I did a bit more analysis, and I think I’m happy going with Taylor. I should quickly remind everyone that this is only a 2008 award/designation, and when I get around to ranking my Top 30 prospects, I’m fairly sure I’m going to have Donald ahead of Taylor. Thats a debate for another time. For right now, I’m focused on 2008, and I think in that instance, Taylor has to get the nod. Here are the raw numbers;

As always, if that image is hard to read, click here for a larger copy.

A few things to look at here. First, Taylor had a large advantage over Donald in plate appearances. Donald was bothered by a minor hand/wrist injury for a few weeks, and then missed time while at the Olympics. Taylor didn’t skip a beat, and ended up amassing 554 plate appearances between Lakewood and Clearwater, ending up with 22 more at Lakewood. Taylor’s composite 3 slash line is excellent, a .346 average across 2 levels is very good, obviously. He was old for Lakewood (av prospect age is 20/21) but more age appropriate for Clearwater. After an adjustment period, Taylor exploded in the pitcher friendly FSL. In June he posted a line of .154/.175/.179 in 39 AB, but improved to .340/.404/.532 in 94 July AB, and then capped off his season with a .373/.417/.709 line in 110 August AB’s. Those are eye popping numbers for sure. Donald was consistent to a degree in Reading, posting a .796 OPS in April, .874 in May, .924 and .964 in June and July, and then .812 in August before departing for the Olympics. Donald’s power really dipped in August, I’m not sure if it was just fatigue or something else.

When you move past the three slash lines, you start to look at the peripheral numbers. Donald bettered Taylor in the walks department, drawing 47 walks (1 IBB) in 414 PA’s, while Taylor drew 50 (4 IBB) in 140 more plate appearances. When you remove intentional walks, both guys drew 46 BB, but Donald did so in many fewer PA’s. While I hate to harp on it, plate discipline is the most important skill (in my opinion) when evaluating a prospect going forward. Being able to discern strikes from balls is the core element to being able to hit at any level. Taylor’s case may simply be him just overpowering pitchers and being able to cover everything he saw, and really he was locked in for 2 months. Players with big raw power are sometimes able to improve their plate discipline, as pitchers are more likely to pitch more carefully once you’ve established what you can do when you make contact. Taylor’s BB rate last year in his debut was 8.8%, so he’s been consistent in this area. While his power isn’t massive (a .211 ISO is good, not incredible though), there are indications that some of his 39 doubles will turn into home runs down the road. Taylor showed some home/away splits in 2008 at Clearwater;

Home: .279/.342/.519
Away: .367/.411/.590

Incidentally, he hit for more isolated power at home than on the road, but his overall line was better away. Using the park factors at FirstInning.com it appears that his home park hurt doubles (9%) but helped home runs by 6%. Donlad also showed home/away splits at Reading this season

Home: .315/.402/.528
Away: .295/.375/.475

Reading is a good hitter’s park, inflating home runs by 13% and deflating doubles by 9%. Donald’s road OPS is nothing to sneeze at, and the splits aren’t really drastic enough to knock either guy.

The last thing I wanted to draw attention to was the Secondary Average for both guys. If you’ve never encountered secondary average, this is what it is;

Secondary average, or SecA, is a baseball statistic – more precisely, a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources (extra base hits, walks and net bases gained through stolen bases) to at bats. Secondary averages have a higher variance than batting averages.

For the formula, click here. Secondary average is important because it basically isolates batting average and then looks at everything else a player does, like hitting for power and stealing bases, and computes this into an average that makes it easy to compare. Both Taylor and Donald had very nice secondary averages this season, but Donald had a 20 point lead based largely on two factors; his walk rate was better and he stole bases with a much higher success rate. Donald was 11/13 in SB’s, while Taylor was 15/24. Caught stealings factor into secondary average, and while Taylor stole 4 more bags, he was thrown out 7 more times. Taylor had a slight edge in extra base hit percentage, but Donald had only 5 fewer home runs in those 140 fewer plate appearances, no small accomplishment.

When I looked at these two players, considered their 2008 seasons, I wanted to give the nod to Donald for 2 main reasons; level and his defensive position. By all accounts, Donald isn’t going to win a gold glove at shortstop, but if he had to, he could probably play average to slightly below average major league shortstop from a defensive standpoint. He doesn’t have very good range or a great first step, but he makes the plays on balls he gets to. For a lower tier MLB team, his defense would probably be good enough. A move to 2B seems like a possibility, 3B is possible, and worst case scenario, he ends up in LF, but its likely that he’ll spend his prime years in the infield somewhere, and as long as its anywhere other than 1B, that keeps him ahead of Taylor on the defensive spectrum. Up the middle guys (C, 2B, SS, CF) have the most value in terms of defense, obviously. Taylor’s arm is a definite plus in RF, and from all accounts he plays the position well, so its not a knock on him, its just a plus in Donald’s favor. Donald also did his work this season in AA, while Taylor jumped across two levels in A ball. I hate to again overstate this, but the jump from A ball to AA is one of the toughest jumps in baseball. Donald’s statistical profile improved from 2007 to 2008, and he did this while making this jump. Taylor will be tested with the same move next season, and how he adapts to better pitching will be the true indicator. As I said, I went back and forth here, but isolating their 2008 performances, Taylor just put up a monster year, and I see no harm in giving this award to him. In the bigger picture, Donald will be a few slots ahead of him on the Top 30.

I gave Lou Marson a look as well. Everyone here knows how much I love Marson as a prospect. He’s at the peak of the defensive spectrum, and from the scouting reports, it seems like he’s growing in that aspect of the game. Not quite the polished jewel, but he’s getting there. Marson has made the slow and steady climb, one level at a time, and had his best season yet offensively, and did it again while making the toughest jump (A ball to AA) in the minors. Lou’s profile;

And get your larger version here. Obviously we have the spike in OB%, but he’s always posted solid numbers in that department, in the 10-12% range, this season he just took it to another level, while losing a bit of his power. His LD% dropped a bit from last season, yet he posted a higher BABIP. There was definitely a bit of luck here in terms of his average and slugging %, but he did flash promise, posting an ISO of .149 in May and .158 in July, with three subpar months surrounding those. One theory is that catchers are often the last to develop in terms of their offensive profiles, because they spend large bulks of their time working on the defensive part of the game, which is considered much tougher. Marson wasn’t a natural catcher in high school and had to learn the position, so his progress defensively is very promising, as is his plate eye. As I mentioned before, guys with high OB% and little power in the lower minors generally see the OB% dip when they face better pitchers because they get challenged more, and the lack of power is exposed. Marson’s mastery of the strikezone didn’t suffer at all, in fact, it hit a career high. While there is no guarantee that he’s going to develop legit MLB power, I think he still has plenty of time. Very few 22 year old catchers are regularly launching home runs and also drawing walks in 17% of their plate appearances. A few other guys had nice seasons offensively and contended for the 3rd slot, but Marson’s defensive home, his age and his plate discipline earn him the bronze.

From the hitters to the pitchers. This portion of the program was somewhat easier to decide on. The best pitching performances, by and large, came from the draftees in Vance Worley, Michael Stutes, Mike Cisco, and Michael Schwimer, but I would have had a tough time giving the award to a guy who only threw 30 or 40 innings, no matter how good those innings were. I narrowed my list down to JA Happ and Carlos Carrasco, with Drew Naylor a distant 3rd, more on Drew later. Most of you know the back story on both guys at this point. Carrasco is ranked ahead of Happ on every prospect list, but I do think Happ had the better 2008, and Happ at this point is big league ready, while Carrasco probably isn’t. Similar to Donald/Taylor, I’ll end up ranking Carrasco above Happ on my Top 30, if Happ is even eligible, but for just 2008, I give the edge to JA. Let’s dig in

Happ and Carrasco both pitched well in 2008, both logged their share of innings, both struck out a lot of guys, and both had some issues with walks. In chart form;

As I mentioned in the lead in, both guys had very similar seasons. Carrasco logged 15 more innings, while Happ had a superior strikeout and walk rate, and they were close in the home runs allowed department. If you’re curious, DICE stands for Defense Independent Component ERA. This is one of my favorite statistics to look at for pitchers, because it considers a pitcher’s peripheral numbers and projects what his ERA should have been based on that, while attempting to reduce luck and neutralize defense. It’s not a fool proof statistic, but it does really give you a good idea with a quick glance whether a pitcher was lucky or unlucky based on the things he has more control over. To give you an example on both sides that shows a more dramatic difference, Antonio Bastardo’s actual ERA this season was 2.96, but his DICE was 4.28, largely due to the high number of walks he allowed along with his home runs, so you could consider Bastardo’s 2008 a bit lucky if you look at his ERA. On the flip side, Spencer Arroyo posted an ERA of 5.65 in 42.1 innings, but his DICE was only 3.46, indiciating he was probably a bit unlucky. Its a fun tool to use, and does give you some insight into a pitcher’s line.

Anyway, back to Happ and Carrasco. Both guys were slightly unlucky regarding their respetive ERA’s, but both guys ended up with sub 4 ERA’s. Carrasco definitely enjoyed pitching at home in AAA, throwing 25.2 scoreless innings at Coca Cola Park while 7 ER in 11 IP on the road. He also showed massive splits while in Reading, posting a 2.63 ERA in 48 home IP, and a 5.53 ERA in 66.2 IP away from home. I really can’t pinpoint a reason for this, to be honest. His key peripherals (K’s and BB’s) were almost the same, the 60 point difference in BABIP might have been the only real difference. Happ, on the other hand, was consistent for the most part, posting a 3.44 ERA at home in 81 innings and a 3.84 ERA on the road in 54 innings. His BB% was higher at home, but his K rate was also higher. Happ posted a BABIP of .306 overall, in the normal range but maybe a tick high, while Carrasco posted a .310 BABIP at Reading and a .347 BABIP at Lehigh Valley, definitely on the high side. Happ’s GB% was 42.3% compared to Carrasco’s 45.6%.

Carrasco and Happ both share a common thread in one other area. Happ, a LHP is better against RH batters (.237 AVG v .262 AVG) because of his changeup, and likewise, Carrasco is better against LH batters (.241AVG v .258 AVG) because of his changeup. Reverse splits are common for guys who depend on a changeup as their out pitch. Carrasco’s curveball was considered a distant 3rd pitch 2 years ago, but scouting reports indicate its gotten better, but is still not really where it needs to be for him to throw it consistently. Happ’s looping breaking ball is more of a show me pitch as well, as he relies on his fastball/changeup combo to keep hitters off balance. In a small sample, Happ was better against LHB than RHB in the majors this year, but a 14 inning sample doesn’t tell you more than a 135 inning sample. Happ held RHB to a .255 AVG last year compared to .296 for LHB, so I’m sticking to my guns on that one.

So how do we get to Happ over Carrasco? To me, its kind of simple. Happ had the slightly better statistical year. His peripherals were a little bit better, and he made his way back to the majors and had two so so starts. More importantly was his improvement from last season, and his ability to stay healthy this year. Carrasco battled bouts of inconsistency, but rebounded well in his second tour of AA and showed flashes of brilliance in AAA. At this point, he still has some work to do, but he’s very young, 4 years younger than Happ, and on those grounds I could have given him the nod. But Happ gets the edge because of the slightly better peripherals. On the overall prospect ladder, Carrasco is still higher, and still has a higher ceiling. But this was a nice bouneback year from Happ, and in a year where no one really dominated, he pitched well and reclaimed his prospect status.

Drew Naylor comes in a distant 3rd in the running here, and in all honesty, I’d rank his 2008 behind guys like Vance Worley and Mike Cisco, but the previously stated disclaimer about new draft picks applies. Naylor had a rough go in Clearwater, but his overall composite line is still decent;

165.1 IP — 3.87 ERA (3.41 DICE) — 8.50 K/9 — 2.83 BB/9 — 0.87 HR/9

After a disastrous outing on July 28th, where he allowed 10 ER in 3.1 IP, he regrouped and finished the season with 5 quality starts in 6 tries, posting an ERA of 2.93 in his final 40 IP, striking out 28 and walking only 6. Walks were a problem early, including a 9 walk adventure on July 9th, but after a rough transition, he seemed to settle in a bit more. Naylor also had the reverse split issue, righties hitting .267 against him and lefties only .225, and RHB hit 12 of the 16 HR he allowed. Naylor’s fastball velocity is only average, maybe one tick above, so his margin for error is reduced as he climbs the ladder, but he’s shown good control for the most part, and he should be able to make adjustments. His overall prospect status will probably land him in the 10-20 range, closer to 10 than 20, and he backed up his great short season breakout in 2007 with a solid 2008 on the whole. Consistency and command will be the obvious keys.

So to summarize:

Hitters

Winner: Michael Taylor
Runner Up: Jason Donald
2nd Runner Up: Lou Marson

Pitchers

Winner: JA Happ
Runner Up: Carlos Carrasco
2nd Runner Up: Drew Naylor

There you have it.

Right-hander Adam Eaton and left-hander J.A. Happ were recalled from triple-A Lehigh Valley and outfielder Greg Golson and catcher Lou Marson had their contracts purchased from double-A Reading.

Somewhat surprising that they brought up Marson and not Jaramillo. Gordon and Rosario were moved to the 60 day DL to make room.