My conclusion

The bottom line is, I’m happy that Mach is tearing the cover off the ball. At the same time, I still think he was a big reach in the 4th round, and I think there was still a good bit of signable talent on the board when the Phillies took him. I believe he was taken in the 4th round because he had no leverage and would be a cheap sign, and the Phillies needed that with having two 3rd round picks. Mach signed for $95,000, all of the guys infront of him that signed went in the $200,000 range, and the three guys behind him signed for $120,000, $140,000 and $164,000. I hope this pick works out, I hope he destroys the ball all through the minors, finds a defensive home, and can be a .280/.360/.480 guy in the majors and help us, but I’m not holding my breath, and I’d be shocked if he ever becomes a major league regular. That doesn’t mean I’m not pulling for him.

Some of your thoughts

Giving credit where credit is due is essential in this judgment-based time of now. What his past is, is interesting and something to use as a yardstick in measuring his performance; when performance far exceeds “valid expectations” it is not a good approach to limit him by past thoughts but rather take great heed at what he’s NOW doing.

If somebody were to tell me that he’s still at the NYPENN Lg now because, even if his hitting is great, his fielding is being assessed and worked on before moving him up, then I could go along with the sense that represents.

Otherwise, he NEEDS to be tested to see just what we’ve got. That is not going to happen unless he’s challenged at Lakewood or Clwtr. having so far destroyed the pitchers, whereas at higher levels it’d be easier to judge his skills and value to the big club i8n futuro. Keeping where he is now accomplishes nothing, IMO.
We should not be married to past evaluations; present results speak louder…

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This whole “old for the level” argument is a full red herring.. All of the college picks went to GCL or Williamsport. Is Taylor old for the level too? Rizzotti?? Give Mach is props, he was put where he shoulda been put and is crushing the ball. I do agree it doesnt mean very much, we will know more next year when he starts out at LKW or CLR, but for now I am impressed.

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The argument that his numbers this season should count for more than the scouting report is absolutely ridiculous. You do not grade recent draft picks based on statistics a very short season of work in low minor league ball. PERIOD. The scouting report is based on multiple seasons of work, as well as private workouts and interviews. His numbers are based on how many months of work in Williamsport? If you want to give him praise for his good work thus far, that’s one thing, but to say that is performance outweighs the scouting is absurd.

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How so many here are willing & able to denigrate Mach’s hot start is amazing. I SUSPECT that many here are trying to “justify” their “lousy pick” commentary immediately following our draft. If he had been hitting .200 w no power and a lousy OBA there’d be plenty of “I told you so” people here.

Unfortunately for them the guy is hitting over .400 AGAINST MOSTLY COLLEGE PITCHERS who have been known to throw a curve or two and even a changeup. Thus it just may be that his reputation as a fb hitter only may have to be amended…and JUST PERHAPS one or two Phils’ scouts including a cross-checker may have figured that out just from watching him.

Though it could be that he is unsuitable for 3rd base because of fielding issues; yet that doesn’t bar the team from experiencing him in left field. If so, the sooner the better.

To those who suspicion him for his age: his age IS a factor; not so much because his obvious great success at Wlmsprt is a year AFTER most college players are drafted: at age 21.

So…just maybe moving him up now could advance him along w others at the same aqe of 22. But perhaps his bat is more needed at Wlmspt to buttress the offense.

I hope all the naysayers here are greatly surprised when he becomes part of the big club…perhaps as a power left fielder failing my 3rd base dreams for him. My bet is on him.

Utility player….!!! At best?

Reminder: a certain guy was going to be drafted in the 1st round for sure…but failed miserably at bat in his last pre-draft year. Thus his draft status fell greatly because scouts were saying he couldn’t respond to the pressure of the oncoming draft and his fielding was just adequate at most.

So..30 teams passed on the guy for the first 3-4 rounds in light of scouting report6s. The Phils thought they saw something that ALL of the scouts didn’t and chose him in the 4th round.

Thus, DESPITE the scouting reports the Phils ended up w Ryan Howard at 1st base. Not too bad for a guy who was dissed by all the scouts’ reports. Somehow the Phils’ people saw something other than the scouts did….It couldn’t possibly happen twice, could it?

Pretty good return on going against scouting reports on Howard…based upon YOUR OWN evaluators.

Tyler Mach…?? NAAH!!

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I’ll stop there. The responses were 50/50 it seems, either agreeing or disagreeing with my general idea. Well, a full season is now in the books, so let’s take a look at his numbers.

June: 16 PA — .500/.563/1.071
July: 123 PA — .317/.423/.471 — 9.8% BB — 8.9% K
August: 111 PA — .245/.297/.373 — 6.3% BB — 13.5% K

So….what happened? What happened is, Mach’s BABIP normalized, and when it did he came back to Earth. His final month of the season was a struggle, with his walk rate dropping and his strikeout rate rising, both bad signs. Was he tired? That shouldn’t be an excuse for a college senior, especially playing against much younger/inexperienced competition. Is Mach done for as a prospect? No, but while I certainly didn’t think much about his future, I think even less of it now.

I do think that this does help illustrate a very important point though. Every once in a while, you find a guy who drops in the draft for whatever reason, and that guy turns out to be the steal of the draft. Ryan Howard was a guy like that, ditto Mark Beuhrle and others. But guys like that are the very very large exception, they aren’t the rule. Mach doesn’t have a dominant tool like Howard did. He was a good hitter, not a great hitter, whereas Howard always had the elite power tool, and not much else. In a small sample from June to early July, Mach looked like the second coming of Rogers Hornsby. Then he leveled off, pitchers made adjustments, and his performance tailed off. Will he rebound next season? Maybe, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. He’s already 22 going on 23, and will need to move very quickly through the minors if he’s to retain prospect status. After a lackluster finish, it’s likely he’ll end up at Lakewood, where he’ll be 23, and his numbers again will have to be taken with a grain of salt. We’ll see what happens.