We’ll start, of course, in the NL East. I’m going to post the chart for each team that lists all of the scores, and then I’ll do a bit of line per line analysis. We’ll start with the Phillies. I’m going to provide the top 30 chart for each team, which contained the top 30 SONAR scores, and then also guys who were considered top 30 prospects heading into 2010 by Baseball America. For the purpose of looking at the Phillies list, I’ll also address guys who were not in the top 30 or mentioned by BA who may have had breakout years and try to figure out why they didn’t score higher last year.

Philadelphia

Anthony Gose, 59.75 – 2010 3 slash –> .262/.332/.393 (A+) 45/77 in SB. Gose received credit for being just 18, very young for Low A, and posting an astronomical stolen base total, while also stealing bags at a high success rate. His 3 slash numbers weren’t overly impressive, but for his age, they were good enough. He was one of the 3 pieces dealt to Houston (and then Toronto) in the Roy Oswalt deal. His bat is still raw, but in the 113 PA he logged for Toronto’s A+ team in the FSL, he did show a bit more, increasing his walk rate and also flashing a bit more power. He is still very very young, and if he was dropped down to Low A next year, he will still be age appropriate. His work at the plate actually improved in 2010, but his work on the bases took a step back. Still, I think SONAR had him properly identified, when you consider his age and his raw ability.

Domonic Brown, 56.18 – 2010 3 slash –> .327/.391/.589 (AA). Brown had an impressive 2009, and from a tools perspective, everyone loved what he was doing, especially because the power had started to emerge. The one thing that may have limited his SONAR score was his performance at Reading after a midseason promotion, where he posted “just” an .801 OPS. His power fully emerged in 2010, and his three slash line represents that big uptick. He’s now considered one of the best prospects in baseball, and has shown flashes of what he can do in his brief stint with the big league club.

Tyson Gillies, 40.10 – 2010 3 slash –> .243/.302/.336 (AA). It was a busted season (no pun intended) for Gillies from the start, as he struggled with minor injuries and then ran into problems with the law. In spring training, he was receiving really lofty praise, with Kevin Goldstein actually saying scouts were viewing him favorably and even making some comparisons to Domonic Brown. SONAR liked his work in 2009, noting his high walk totals and solid speed. Of course it didn’t translate in 2010, though SONAR isn’t able to predict injuries or substance abuse issues.

Antonio Bastardo, 28.48 – 2010 line –> 20.1 IP – 1.77 ERA – 1.03 WHIP (AAA). Bastardo performed well in 2009, but dealt with persistent injury concerns. 2010 was no different, as he pitched well in the minors and struggled briefly in the majors before getting hurt. He’s back and healthy now, but he remains a major injury risk.

Michael Schwimer, 27.51 and Justin De Fratus, 27.46. Both guys continued to pitch really well in the high minors, something which bodes well for their big league futures. Schwimer continues to rack up strikeouts, with 76 in 60 IP this year between AA and AAA. De Fratus was even better, allowing just 48 hits in 65 innings, with 71 strikeouts and 16 BB between A+ and AA.

Domingo Santana, 26.23 – 2010 line –> .211/.329/.333 (A-/A). It was a major struggle for Santana this year, and the Phillies may have simply been a bit too eager to move him quickly (and I was eager too, ranking him where I did in my Top 30). The strikeouts were a big red flag, but one I thought was offset slightly by the solid walk rate in 2009. The walk rate remained very good in 2010, but the power dried up a bit, and his contact issues remain. One area where I think I may need to re-address is the impact of strikeout totals. For the most part, strikeouts at the highest level are not an issue, but in the minors, it appears that huge contact issues could be more of a stumbling block, as the competition level does not get any easier as you move up the ladder. But that’s for another time.

Jon Singleton, 23.31 – 2010 line –> .290/.393/.479 (A). What a year for Singleton, who SONAR liked, but not quite as much as Santana. The big difference here, again, was Santana being a year younger and showing more power. But Singleton’s bat control edge should have ranked him higher. A score of 23.31 in just 119 PA from 2009 was still a very strong score.

Phillippe Aumont, 22.73 – 2010 line –> 122 IP – 5.68 ERA – 1.71 WHIP – 115 K – 80 BB. Aumont was regarded as the best prospect the Phillies got in the Cliff Lee deal, but SONAR wasn’t quite as convinced, and he did struggle (to put it lightly) in 2010. The same things I’ve said previously about him still apply. Getting 122 innings under his belt this year will have greatly helped him, even if he struggled. And he still has plenty of projection. But he’s a work in progress, and will score much lower next season. This metric is, after all, performance based.

Notes: SONAR wasn’t very high on Sebastian Valle and Trevor May. In Valle’s case, it was his approach at the plate, lack of walks, and abundance of strikeouts. He showed flashes this season, and the scouting reports are positive, but he still has plenty of work to do. May struggled mightily at High A before a demotion to Lakewood, where he seemed to get a handle on his control. He faces a big test with his 2nd stint at Clearwater. Jarred Cosart and Brody Colvin had a lower score because both had a very small sample size in 2009. Josh Zied also popped up at the bottom of the top 30, and he of course posted excellent numbers at Lakewood, though at an advanced age. On the negative side of things, SONAR was pessimistic on Joe Savery (most were) and also Mike Cisco, who struggled. SONAR was also down on Vance Worley, who ended up posting a excellent year. Worley’s peripherals were poor last season, but that may well have been the result of an overagressive assignment to AA and exhaustion from his first full pro season. SONAR saw Mike Stutes in a starting role and wasn’t impressed, but he posted a nice season out of the pen, and it’s clear that is his role going forward, he’ll see a score uptick heading into 2011.

All in all, I think there are a number of interesting things in the data. Small sample sizes obviously produce low scores, and some of the big time performances in 2010 (Worley, in particular) didn’t see all that predictable from a statistical or scouting perspective. SONAR did spot the Matt Rizzotti breakout, as well as Singleton’s solid season.

I’m going to post much less detail on the other 4 teams in the division, just the highlights.

* Its no great accomplishment that SONAR blew up Jason Heyward, since everyone else did too. He had the highest SONAR score of any prospect in the minors, and he’s lived up to the massive hype in the majors this year.

* Cody Johnson’s massive score is a result of him excelling at the 2 core principles; walks and home runs. He strikes out a TON, and scouts considered him an all or nothing prospect. 2010 was a bit of a disaster for him, as he went .212/.289/.398 across 3 levels at age 21. I think that’s an important number, because though he failed the AA test, at A+ he went .264/.333/.505, and that is an age appropriate line in a very tough pitcher’s park. As I mentioned above in the Phillies writeup of Domingo Santana, I think I may need to tweak how the system views contact rates and penalize a bit more for strikeouts. I still think Johnson has a shot because of his age, his raw power, and his ability to draw walks. But he has to hit at AA this year.

* Julio Teheran threw only 81 innings last year and struggled with his control, but he shook that off this season, and has emerged as arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors. Scouts were always high on him, and for good reason.

* Two guys who have made an impact, Craig Kimbrel and Brandon Beachy, both show up on the Top 30. Kimbrel’s ranking was right in line, Beachy had gone unranked.

* Benino Pruneda was unranked by BA and ranked 8th by SONAR. He responded with a line of 64.2 IP – 55 H – 37 BB – 93 K at A+/2A as a 21 year old, and is surely going to make the Braves top 30 this year. Gerardo Rodriguez ranked 11th by SONAR and unranked by BA, posted a line of .253/.312/.447 in A+ at age 22 in 356 PA. Respectable raw power, but not the breakout I expected.

* SONAR was no big fan of Jonny Venters, but of course he struggled mightily in 2009 as a starting pitcher before being converted to a reliever and the second coming of Billy Wagner. Mike Minor posted a score of only 7.79, but it was in a very tiny sample. Freddie Freeman struggled a bit in 2009, but was very aggressively pushed. He responded with a big 2010, and looks set to be the Braves starting 1B next year. Scouts were also higher on Randall Delgado, and he responded with a very nice season in High A before struggling a bit in AA. Scouts were also high on Zeke Spruill, a young RHP, and BA ranked him 8th in the system, while SONAR ranked him much lower. He struggled this year, posting a line of 68 IP – 5.43 ERA – 87 H – 14 BB – 42 K in A+.

I’d say SONAR’s biggest “hit” here would be spotting the breakout of the obscure Benino Pruneda, as well as the struggles of Zeke Spruill. The biggest “miss” is obviously Cody Johnson, but I kind of highlighted why I think his season wasn’t as bad as it looked. SONAR also “missed” on Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman for different reasons.

* Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison scored very very well in the system, and both have shown what they can do in the majors. Stanton’s batting average will always be on the low end because he strikes out a ton, but he might be one of the 3 or 4 strongest players in the game, and he’s just 20. Morrison lacks elite raw power, but has an incredible approach at the plate. Both will anchor the Marlins lineup for the next 4 years until they make more than minimum wage.

* Justin Jacobs was the first big divergence, ranking 4th according to SONAR and going unranked by BA. He showed an interesting blend of power and patient for a 20 year old in Low A, but for some reason, he didn’t play at all in 2010. I don’t know if it was an injury, if he quit baseball, or if he was just released. Very odd. As I mentioned in my SONAR manifesto last year, there are always going to be statistical outliers/oddities, it’s simply the result of developing a program or algorithm that spits out raw data. You take the good with the bad.

* Thomas Hickman, who scouts gave up on, had a nice year in 2009 and it appeared he was on track. He struggled in 2010, going .232/.326/.413 across A/A+. Sonar was higher on Marcell Ozuna than BA, and he had a breakout year in 2010, hitting 22 HR in just 320 PA, most of that time coming in the NYPL at age 19. He’ll see a nice uptick in his 2011 score.

* SONAR wasn’t a big fan of Ryan Tucker, ranked 6th by BA, and he struggled mightily in 2010, with a 5.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 67 innings across A+/3A at age 23. Likewise, SONAR was down on Issac Galloway, ranked 8th by BA. He bombed out to the tune of .200/.259/.290 in 108 PA at A+ at age 20. Kyle Skipworth, a former first rounder, had a disastrous 2009 season, but still ranked 7th in the system by BA. He rebounded somewhat in 2010, hitting .249/.312/.426 in 436 PA at Low A, as a 20 year old. Still, I don’t know that you can consider him a top 10 prospect based solely on his draft position in 2008.

* SONAR sleeper Elih Villanueva (12th, unranked by BA) posted a nice line of 179 IP – 137 H – 34 BB – 115 K in AA as a 23 year old. His low GB% is a worry, but with his excellent control, he should be able to carve out a career. Performance at AA is a big deal. Another sleeper, Brent Keys, posted a line of .267/.360/.313 in 261 PA in the NYPL at age 19. No real power, but a good approach at the plate, and he was 11 for 15 in SB. Peter Andrelczyk, unranked by BA, had a blistering 2009 despite being old for Low A, but he put up decent numbers in A+ as a 24 year old. I don’t think the numbers were overpowering enough, considering his age, to rank him this high again, but I like him as a future bullpen arm.

* Big dissension at the top, as SONAR liked Kirk Nieuwenhuis above all others in the Mets system. He posted solid numbers at AA (.289/.337/.510) before struggling at bit after a promotion to AAA. He showed solid power (ISO of .200) which will play well if he remains in CF defensively. He struggled with contact (132 K in 566 PA), and his speed kind of tapered off a bit. That said, I still like the decision to rank him ahead of most of the guys behind him.

* Jenrry Mejia ranked 2nd, and he had a decent season in between the ML bullpen/spot starting/starting in the minors carousel he was on. Having watched him pitch, I think he’s going to end up a reliever in the long run, which would downgrade his stock for me, but he does have an excellent fastball. However, his shoulder injury has to raise some concern.

* SONAR pegged RHP Josh Stinson as a potential breakout guy, as he was unranked by BA. His overall line (138 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) doesn’t look all that great, but he did finsh the season well, starting 4 games in AAA and posting a line of 28 IP – 22 H – 8 BB – 21 K. He generates about 50% groundballs, but doesn’t miss many bats, and his control needs to be tightened up a bit. Still like him as a sleeper at this point.

* Wilmer Flores scored low in the system as a result of being pushed extremely aggressively. He “held his own” against much older players in 2009, but his stat line wasn’t a net positive. In 2010, his line was a positive; .289/.333/.424 in 597 PA between A/A+. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he also has great bat control for someone his age, and his 36 doubles indicate power may be coming. I think he’s the safe pick as the Mets top prospect at this point.

* SONAR didn’t like Brad Holt at all, despite BA ranking him 5th in the Mets system. He responded with a line of 95 IP – 8.34 ERA – 111 H – 79 BB – 87 K (and 17 HBP) at A+/2A. Josh Thole’s approach (no power, great patience) is one that has been tough to translate to the majors, and SONAR wasn’t really buying it. He had decent numbers in the minors in 2010, and he’s hit an empty .277 so far in the majors. It will be interesting to see what he does over the course of 450-500 PA’s in the majors next year, if the Mets give him that chance.

* BA jumped off the Lucas Duda train a few years ago, SONAR was a believer, and he hit .304/.398/.569 this year at 2A/3A in 495 PA. He’s struggled so far in his brief MLB debut, but I still like his bat. Another sleeper, Richard Lucas, didn’t fare nearly as well, hitting just .212/.285/.339 in 486 PA at A+. The third big breakout guy predicted was Brahiam Maldonado, and he fared much better, hitting .282/.342/.539 across A+/2A in 415 PA, with 50 XBH. He does has contact issues, so temper expectations a bit.

* Of course Stephen Strasburg has a score of 0, he didn’t pitch in 2009. Nothing else to say there, really.

* Derek Norris got plenty of scout buzz, and his numbers really only fell just behind Jason Heyward’s in 2009. 2010 was unkind to him, as he dealt with hand injuries (really the worst kind for a power hitter) and managed just a .235/.419/.419 line in 399 PA at A+ as a 21 year old. That said, you can see that the patience is still there, he drew a massive 89 walks compared to 94 K. The hand injury seemed to sap his power. With him 100% healthy in 2011, I expect his overall line to go back up.

* Brad Meyers was great in 6 starts, and I’m assuming he was injured, because he made only 6 starts all season at AA.

* Marcos Frias posted excellent numbers as a 20 year old in Low A last year, but the success didn’t carry over this season, as he struggled to the tune of a 5.68 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 65/35 K to BB rate in 96.2 IP at A+.

* Stephen Lombardozzi was ranked much higher by SONAR than BA (28th), and had a nice season, going .294/.371/.431 in 625 PA between A+/2A at just age 21. I think you’ll see him much higher up prospect lists next year.

* After a monster debut in 2009 in the GCL, Hendry Jimenez struggled mightily (.218/.291/.279 in 206 PA at RK), but another sleeper I liked, Josh Wilke, fared a bit better, posting a line of 69.2 IP – 2.45 ERA – 57 H – 22 BB – 62 K at 3A at age 25. He should get a shot at a bullpen gig next year, based on the number or arsonists the Nationals currently employ in their pen.

* Ian Desmond ranked 12th according to SONAR, but was more highly thought of by BA and BP. He’s had himself a decent rookie year, .280/.317/.412, going 16/21 in SB and showing decent pop for a middle infielder. From my watching him defensively, I think he’s kind of shaky there, and if I were the Nats, I’d be more inclined to play the better defender (Danny Espinosa) at SS and Desmond at 2B. But that said, he’ll provide them with a cheap middle infield option for the next 2 years, and he may yet have some upside offensively.

* Ranked 7th by BA heading into 2010, Jeff Kobernus struggled in his first full year, hitting just .279/.316/.346 in 343 PA at Low A despite being 22. SONAR wasn’t very impressed, and will likely be even less impressed this winter.

* Michael Burgess struggled in 2009, resulting in him being dropped to #9 in BA’s rankings. SONAR was still a fan, ranking him #3 in the system. SONAR may have won this round, as he hit .265/.357/.465 in 529 PA across A+/2A at age 21. More impressively, he actually showed improvement upon being promoted to AA, hitting 6 HR in just 74 AB. Small sample size and all of that, but yeah, get back on board with Burgess.

* Tom Milone, who was ignored by BA last winter, ranked 17th by SONAR, and put up great numbers in 2010; 158 IP – 161 H – 23 BB – 155 K – 2.85 ERA at AA at age 23. Milone is a soft tossing LHP, which is probably why scouts ignored him, but he has amazing control, and if he has a decent defense behind him, he’s basically an improved version of John Lannan. That shouldn’t be ignored considering the relative lack of upside in the system.

There ya go. Volume 1 is in the books. I’m going to wait until I’ve reviewed all 6 divisions before writing a wrapup/drawing big conclusions/talking about where the system goes from here. I want to go over all the results first. I’ll move on to the NL Central next. As always, if the SONAR stuff is a foreign language to you, check out the SONAR archive, located here.

Note number 2. I recently started a new job, and my job will keep me off the grid for most of the day during the week. Gregg is in charge when I can’t get to the computer to post a newsworthy item, and though I shouldn’t have to say it, please be respectful. I’m planning on writing a daily wrap up piece every night that can function as the next day’s general discussion, gregg will have his affiliate report for Lehigh Valley once a week, and I’ll also be working on some other projects for the site, but I won’t have access during the day, so behave yourselves.

First, the Phillies chart. This list has not been pruned, so a few guys on this list may have been released/some are just minor league filler, but I left all the names on as a frame of reference. You can analyze the list as you see fit, but I’m going to focus on the overall Top 100 in this post. I’ll definitely answer any questions related to the Phillies chart though, so ask away in the comments if you have questions.

(If you can’t see the charts, click here and here.)

As you will see in the top 100, the Phillies current crop did not score all that well in the SONAR system, but this is partly a function of their best pitching prospects throwing a limited number of innings in 2009. SONAR has a sample size weighting built in, which places less weight on smaller samples, and I think its an important aspect of the system. 120+ innings from May and Cosart, with dominant numbers, will surely shoot them up the rankings.

Before I post the Top 100, I want to stress a few key points about SONAR again, just so I can avoid doing it 5 times in the comments.

* This is a 1 year score, based only on what a player did in the minors. Stephen Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in baseball, but isn’t on the list because he didn’t pitch. I can’t computer/analyze something that didn’t happen
* The score is dependent on peripheral performance, as well as age, league and home park context. If a player had a low score (or a high score), it was for a reason, there is no bias or opinion in any of these calculations.
* Players who played only a small handful of games/innings will have very low scores. Its the nature of the system. These players are ranked at the top of prospect lists based on scouting reports, not what they’ve done as pros. And that’s why scouting reports are a vital part of understanding prospects. But my goal in devising this system is to evaluate what a player has actually done, then compare that to the scouting reports.

So, here we go. There are 3 separate pieces, which will make it easier to view. I’ll list them back to back to back then provide some thoughts. Before I do, a quick refresher on the scale and how to view these scores

(If you can’t see the charts, click here, here and here to see them in a different window/tab)

Now I’ll add blurbs for the guys with “See below for more” in their description box

* Jordan Lyles tops the SONAR charts. And I think its important to realize just how special his 2009 was. He proved to be durable, throwing 144 innings in his first full year, and that could impact him down the road, as he threw only 55 innings in his 2008 debut at age 17. After facing 142 batters in May, he faced 113, 119 and 115 over June, July and August. His peripherals were excellent, including a 10.2 K/9 rate, a 2.32 BB/9 rate, and only 5 HR allowed. Lefties hit just .220 off of him, righties hit .262, and what makes his line even more impressive is the .346 BABIP, an unlucky number. If you want to find one flaw in his stat line it was the 43.9% GB rate. Some other prospect evaluation sites have gone out of their way to play down his numbers, talking about his “average” stuff. But again, he was 18 for the entire season, turning 19 in mid October. At 6’4/185, he has an ideal pitcher’s frame and his fastball, which reportedly sits 91-94 now, could firm up into the 92-96 range if he’s able to add a bit of muscle. His secondary offerings my need to be refined, but that’s the case with most very young pitchers. Also of quick note, over the last three years Lexington, his home park in the SAL, has been a bit of a hitter’s park, inflating home runs above the average (and in 2009, significantly above) in the SAL. Despite that, he showed no home/road splits. If the Astros promote him one level to A+ in 2010, he’ll have to deal with one of the worst parks in the minors for pitchers. Should they skip him straight to AA, he’ll be one of the youngest pitchers in AA, maybe the youngest. Scouts don’t seem fully convinced, SONAR is in love with him.

* If Lyles is an interesting case, Tim Collins is the most interesting case. Let’s look at his raw numbers in 2009. He pitched 77 innings across A+ and AA at age 19. So before I go any further, I’ll point out that he was one of the youngest pitchers at both levels in all of the minors. Now his numbers; 77.1 IP – 59 H – 35 BB – 116 K. Yes, 116 strikeouts in 77 IP, that’s 13.66/9, an astounding rate. Lefties hit just .109 against him. So looking at just those numbers, considering his age, you’d think he’d be an elite prospect, right? Well, here’s the part that turns off most scouts; he’s listed at 5’7/155 pounds. If Tim Lincecum is undersized, what does that make Tim Collins? But just like Lincecum, Collins has a lightning fast arm and generates plus velocity on his fastball. His numbers, adjusted for age/level, are video game like. He walked his share of hitters, but 3.97/9 for a 19 year old in A+/2A, with those K numbers, isn’t anything to panic over. But scouts can’t seem to get past his size, and its a legitimate concern. He’s a flyball pitcher, namely because he is so short and can’t really get a whole lot of downhill plane on his pitches. He’s a guy who is always going to have to prove himself at every level, but he’s been flat out unhittable, especially against LHB, and he’ll be one of the youngest pitchers in AA in 2010. He’s one of those guys you want to watch just to see what happens, because he’s such a unique prospect.

* Ben Hornbeck is another guy I can’t figure out. Look at his body of work in 2009. He started in the MWL at age 21, a year old for the level, but then made it to A+ and finished with 1 start in AA at the end of the year, so the bulk of his work came at A/A+. His total line; 116 IP – 88 H – 46 BB – 159 K. The K rate was off the charts good, his control was average, and hitters had a tough time against him, hitting just .212 overall despite a .329 BABIP. He was actually slightly better against righties than lefties, holding righties to a .207 average and lefties a .226 average. His K rate dominance was almost identical, but he walked a few more righties (3.93/9 compared to 2.18/9 v LHB). He also posted a 48% GB rate, not amazing but also pretty solid. He’s listed at 6’5/180, so he’s not Tim Collins-esque, yet he gets no love. Baseball America didn’t rank him in Oakland’s Top 30, and listed him as a lefthanded reliever. Of his 29 appearances in 2009, 16 of them were starts. Opponents hit just .232 against him as a starter, but he was even more effective out of the pen, holding hitters to a .156 average in 34 IP. His BB rate spiked a bit as a reliever, but the K rate was fairly constant. I can only imagine he doesn’t throw very hard to not gain any attention at all despite a very impressive 2009 season. My hope is that SONAR has found a guy that everyone else will show up to the party on in 2010.

* Matusz ranks “low” on the chart because he logged only 112 innings in the minors. His peripherals were very good at both levels, and had he stayed in the minors for the full season and logged another 25 innings, he’d likely have scored in the high 50′s and ranked in the top 10. The one “knock” against him is that he doesn’t have elite pitch. His fastball, curve and change all rate as plus, but none of them will blow hitters away, and he pitches half his games in a bandbox, and all of his games for a poor team in the toughest division in baseball. Having to face the Sox/Yankees/Rays 6-7 times a year could put a cap on his ultimate shiny numbers, but he’s a fantastic prospect.

*Augenstein is an interesting guy. He has ridiculously good command and control, as well as some deception in his delivery(go to the 0:30 mark), and it worked well in the minors, as he posted an elite 1.66 BB/9 between 2A/3A, but he really struggled in his brief big league stint, posting a 7.94 ERA in 17 IP with only 6 K and 6 BB. Will his stuff not translate to the big leagues? I think it will. Lots of guys come up, get the jitters, and get away from what got them there. I think that he’ll eventually be a quality starter in the big leagues. Pitching in a very hitter friendly park limits his upside, but he’s got a shot I think.

* Neftali Feliz is one of my favorite pitchers in the game. I’ve never seen a guy throw as easy as he does and generate the power he does. If you haven’t seen him pitch, just watch this clip. Or this one. A 99 mph fastball, with an 87 mph changeup….I mean, he could probably make it through 6 innings throwing 85% fastballs and be an above average big league starter. His score was held down by the limited innings (just 77), and his numbers actually improved by a wide margin in the big leagues. He’s still very young, and his role in 2010 is yet to be determined, but his arm is one of the best in the game.

* Matt Moore is a big scouts favorite because he’s a lefty with well above average fastball velocity. So far, he’s compiled big strikeout numbers, but he’s also struggled with his control. His 5.12 BB/9 rate is troubling, but he helps offset it with the ridiculously good 12.88 K/9 ratio. He struggled with control in his 2007 debut, he harnessed it last year in the Appy League with just 3.02/9, but he regressed a bit in his first taste of full season ball. For his career, lefties actually have a higher batting average off of him (.200) compared to only .177 v RHB. He has a special arm, but his control is a worry for me and for SONAR, hence the more conservative ranking compared to some of the other prospect ranking type outlets.

* Casey Kelly’s score is a reflection on his two way days, as he split the season playing shortstop and pitching. He’s finally given up the shortstop ruse, and will now concentrate on pitching full time. He has impeccable command and control which makes his pitches play up a bit, but he doesn’t have an overpowering fastball or a knockout secondary pitch, which I think limits his upside. I think because he’s a Boston prospect, scouts are quicker to overlook the lack of a knockout pitch and how that will impact him pitching in the toughest division in baseball in a hitter friendly park. I think he’s still an excellent prospect, and if his fastball moves from 91-93 to 92-95 with the same cutting/sinking movement, then his probability increases quite a bit. But I’m still not 100% sold.

* Withrow had seemingly been injured ever since he was drafted in 2007, pitching just 9 innings that year, then only 4 innings in 2008. He was healthy in 2009, logging 113 innings at A+/2A, and he flashed plus stuff, striking out 131 batters. But he also walked 57, which is a bit of a concern. My other big concern is his 38% GB rate in 2009. Though Dodger Stadium will eventually help him in that regard, that is a ton of flyballs. He showed a somewhat significant platoon split in 2009, and I think SONAR is as down on him as any of the other PROs (Prospect Rating Outlets) out there.

* Arrieta was considered a Top 100 overall prospect by some heading into 2009, but his season was a bit of a disappointment. His strikeout numbers were good, but his walk rate was mediocre, and he allowed 13 HR in 150 innings, not a super high rate, but a modest rate nonetheless, and important for the same reasons I highlighted with Matusz. His 38.6% GB rate is indicative of future elevation in the HR rate, considering his future home park. He’s often been grouped with Matusz and graduated prospect Chris Tillman, but while those guys are solid #2 starters, Arrieta looks a lot more like a #4/5, especially in that division and that park.

* Alex Colome was one of Kevin Goldstein’s big time breakout guys for 2010, and it seems just about everyone has gotten on board. He has an excellent power arm, similar to Neftali Feliz, and could be primed for a huge 2009. His 2010 was pretty solid in its own right, with a stellar 11 K/9 and 0 HR allowed. He walked a few too many, but because he keeps the ball down and can overpower weaker hitters, he got away with the walks. The Rays have an embarrassment of riches in terms of young talent, and Colome might go from sleeper to near the top of the pile in 2010.

* Crosby is fully back from Tommy John surgery and possesses one of the best raw lefthanded arms in the minors. He struggled with his control a bit in 2009, but that is expected when rehabbing from TJ. He keeps the ball down as well (50% GB rate), and lefties have very little change against him, hitting .174 in 2009 and ,181 overall. He has significant room to the upside on this list for 2010.

* And finally, Madison Bumgarner. If you look at the Top prospect lists put out by other sites, he’s near the top of all of them. But from a statistical standpoint, his 2009 didn’t really jump out. He was pushed very aggressively, which has something to do with the numbers, but a 6.32 K/9 rate is below average, though the 2.33 BB/9 rate was solid. Toward the end of 2009, scouts were reporting that his velocity had dropped into the high 80′s from the previous 92-94 level. Most thought it was simply a dead arm from a long first full season, but this spring his velocity has remained in the 88-90 range, and while he can still be effective there because of his low arm slot and deceptive delivery, its tough to see him becoming the star everyone expects him to be. Lefties hit just .123 off of him in 2009 after hitting .212 against him in 2008. Despite the excellent movement he generates on his fastball, he only rolled up a 43% GB rate in 2009, and had a 42% rate in 2008. If his velocity comes back to the 91-93 range, he obviously has a better chance. His secondary offerings still come and go, and he relies heavily on the fastball. However, if there is a structural issue with his arm causing the velocity drop, then its obviously reason for greater concern. He is still extremely young, and the Giants have optioned him to the minors, so he won’t start 2010 in the big leagues. His radar gun readings this year will be a popular topic for debate.

Thus concludes the position by position SONAR scores. I’m now going to piece together Top 30 lists for each team, and post them in batches by division. Looks for those over the next few days/week.

I’m just going to go around the horn, starting with C, then moving to 1B and finishing in RF. All of the images should display fine in any browser. If you cannot see the image in its entirety, simply right click and open the image in a new tab/window, or for Mac users, do whatever it is you do to copy the location of an image and then open it in another tab. Thanks.

* Derek Norris takes the top spot, and I think its safe to say that SONAR likes him more than any of the prospect rating outlets (PROs from here on out) do. They all say hes a good prospect but with flaws. I see the strikeouts, and his score was docked slightly because of the K rate, but it also sees a guy who drew 90 walks as a 20 year old in Low A, and ended up compiling 53 extra base hits, 23 of them being home runs. Hagerstown helps inflate doubles, but in 2 of the last 3 years it has suppressed HR at a much higher rate. Sure enough, Norris went .275/.412/.440 at home with 5 HR, compared to .301/.419/.582 away from home with 18 HR. But anyway, he has enormous potential with the bat, and his peripherals were off the charts in 2009. His defense is lagging behind his bat, but he is plenty young enough to work out the kinks, and even if he has to move to an OF corner, his power and patience will make him an above average bat for sure.

* Switch hitting Carlos Santana takes the 2nd spot, a fair distance behind Norris, but still in the elite tier. He has an excellent approach at the plate, drawing plenty of walks and striking out at an acceptable rate. Like Norris, he also has excellent power. He’s hit about 50 points better righthanded in his minor league career, with more raw power, though hes still solid as a lefthanded hitter.

* Jesus Montero comes in 3rd here, despite ranking at the top of most of the PROs lists. What separates Montero from the two guys above is the lack of walks. Montero drew just 28 walks in 379 PA’s last year. He gets away with this because he has great hand/eye coordination and makes a lot of contact. For a 19 year old, he’s shown plenty of power. What remains to be seen is how he handles better pitching with his aggressive approach. Big leaguers are less likely to groove him fastballs like he’s seen in the low minors, and if he doesn’t draw many walks, he’s much more at the mercy of his luck on balls in play. His defense is also a big question mark, as some scouts say he has made small improvements, but most still feel he won’t make it as a catcher in the big leagues. The question then becomes, where does he play in the Yankees setup? Not many 20/21 year old DH’s in baseball.

* Tyler Flowers and Ryan Lavarnway fly under the radar a bit. Flowers has great power and patience, as does Lavarnway, but both guys need to cut down on the strikeouts. Both guys have defensive question marks on their resume as well. Buster Posey is an interesting case. Scouts love him and he’s consistently ranked as the best or second best catching prospect in the minors. But none of his tools really scream out elite to me, and I think he’s more of a solid guy than the star many think he’ll become.

* Beau Brooks might be the one name that doesn’t belong here. He struggled to make contact for much of 2009 as a 21 year old in Low A, but he did show excellent plate discipline, drawing 67 walks in 399 PA. He struggled even more in his 2008 debut, so 2009 was a step forward, but he’ll have to start making more contact to go with the walks. He’s on no one’s radar, so its a chance for SONAR to look smart at this time next year.

* Scouts favorite Tony Sanchez comes in just at the bottom of the above average tier, but his lower score is more than likely just a case of him not getting as many PA’s as players who got to play a full season. Wil Myers, another 2009 draftee, played even less, but posted eye popping numbers in his debut. If he can remain at catcher and survive the nightmare that is Low A Burlington, he’ll shoot up this list next year.

* Its pick your preferred flavor at the top. Carter offers you immense power and draws walks while striking out a ton. Morrison offers you very advanced plate discipline and 30-40 doubles power, with a question mark about his ultimate home run totals. Morrison also offers you a better glove. Both guys are elite.

* Parmelee at #3 is no doubt a surprise, until you look at his core numbers in 2009; 13% BB rate, .183 ISO in one of the toughest hitting leagues in the minors, with Fort Myers consistently rankings as a pitchers park. He struggled a bit after being drafted and viewed as a polished high school bat. He’ll need to make more contact, but his secondary skills look solid.

* Scouts have warmed up to Ike Davis, but they still appear to be doubting Ryan Strieby. He just keeps hitting though, posting an elite .262 ISO at AA in 2009, to go along with 57 walks in just 362 PA. Strikeouts will probably always be an issue, but he appears to be Chris Carter-lite with the bat.

* Another guy to mention here is Allan Dykstra. His full season debut looks pretty bad on the surface; .226/.397/.375 in the MWL at age 22. But he still drew a massive amount of walks (104 in 537 PA) and showed decent power considering the rough nature of the MWL. A .279 BABIP explains some of his crummy luck in 2009. He’ll need a big showing in 2010, and the Cal League should help, as would a normalized BABIP. Eric Hosmer, the #3 overall pick in 2008, is also looking for a big bouneback. Despite an ugly line across A/A+, he still showed off some core ability, and scouts still think he’ll come good. Single A Burlington appears to be kryptonite for highly touted Royals picks, nailing Mike Moustakas and Hosmer in back to back years. Beware Wil Myers.

* Yonder Alonso, another scouts fav, sits near the middle of the list after a somewhat uninspiring 2009. Its tough to see where he fits in with Joey Votto firmly entrenched in Cinci at 1B. Brandon Allen is a bit of a sleeper guy for me, he performed well in the minors in 2009 before struggling at the major league level in September. He’ll likely have to play a full year in AAA with Adam LaRoche now signed in Arizona, but if he rakes, especially against lefties, he still has a shot.

* Matt Rizzotti actually cracks the top 25. I debated his merits the other day in my updated manifesto, and really, he did have a nice season in the FSL. Nothing about him screams star, but he could yet turn into a useful hitter for some team, even if it isn’t the Phillies, and part of me wonders if maybe I should have found a spot for him at the back of my Top 30.

* Johnny Giavotella tops the list though he never really generated much buzz in 2009 from the PROs. He showed an excellent approach at the plate, drawing more walks (11.7%) than strikeouts (9.6%) and compiling 38 extra base hits despite playing in a tough hitters park in Wilmington, which consistently ranks as one of the toughest parks especially for hitting home runs. He posted a .268/.358/.426 line away from home, compared to .256/.344/.330. As you can see, the patience was there at both venues, but he showed much more pop in more hitter friendly settings. His .286 BABIP didn’t help his cause either, and with an increase there, his average should improve to the .275-.280 range. His excellent patience and contact skills + a few more extra base hits makes him elite, in my opinion.

* With the reworked system, Brett Lawrie sees a big boost to his score, which is in line with what the PROs think of him. Alex Amarista, who ranked #1 in the original version, now ranks 2nd, but his score stands up well.

* Jose Altuve, who I pegged as a guy that SONAR really loved but wasn’t on anyone else’s radar, still ends up ranked in the top 5, which makes me believe in him much more, even if no one else does.

* Scott Sizemore appears ticketed for an every day job in the majors this year, and scores fairly well. Eric Young Jr, one of the fastest players in the minors, gets a nice bump into the top 10.

* Phillies prospect Harold Garcia pops up at #27, with a score of 12.15, so he just barely missed making the top 25. His score was a bit lower because he was 22 and playing in Low A, but he has interesting tools. He just needs to move a bit quicker up the ladder.

* Pedro Alvarez is a scouts’ fav, a PROs fav, and a SONAR favorite apparently. His power is unquestioned, but its the other skills that are still a tad up in the air. He raked at all destinations in 2009, but he did have trouble with lefties, hitting just .267/.320/.394 in 165 AB despite a .390 BABIP. Some scouts question his defense at 3B and suggest he will ultimately be a 1B. The offensive requirements will increase, and I just wonder whether he’s going to be a true star or more of a second tier player below the Prince Fielders and Adrian Gonzalez’ of the world. Either way, he should be good for a .350 ish OB% and 30-35 HR a year simply because he will kill RHP.

* Logan Forsythe is the opposite of Pedro Alvarez, as his calling card is an incredible eye at the plate and the ability to draw loads of walks, something the Padres preach up and down their system. He totaled 102 walks in 595 PA across A+/2A in 2009. The biggest question mark placed on him is his power, as he posted just a .140 combined ISO, and a .098 ISO at AA after his promotion. However, the Padres are now moving him to 2B, where his offensive profile will make him an elite option if he can handle the defensive duties.

* In addition to Forsythe, the Padres have the next 2 guys on the list in James Darnell and Edinson Rincon. Darnell is the more polished product, trailing Forsythe by one level. He’s a more traditional 3B with a blend of power and patience. Rincon has the most intriguing bat of the 3, but scouts think he will eventually end up in LF or RF. Until he does, I think he’s an excellent 3B prospect.

* Alex Liddi sat at the top of the list in the initial SONAR run, but drops down a bit with some tweaks to the formula. His score is still quite solid, and I think he’s a good bet to have a nice season in AA in 2010. I like Matt Dominguez quite a bit, and I’m glad SONAR agrees. Unlike some on the list, Dominguez seems to be a lock to stay at 3B and not just stay there, but play gold glove defense there. He’s been aggressively pushed, and I think his bat will catch up. He may never post big OB% numbers, but I think he’ll be a good source of power.

* Johnny Whittleman is one of my breakout guys for 2010. He was a more hyped guy a few seasons ago before seeing his progress stall out a bit. His surface line at AA in 2009 wasn’t good; .224/.345/.361 in 527 PA. But underneath, he posted an excellent walk rate (15.2%) and showed some promise against RHP, posting a .742 OPS compared to .568 v LHP. He was the victim of plenty of bad luck in 2009, posting an overall BABIP of .277, including a .209 mark against LHP. At 6’2/195, he’s not an undersized stick, and if his luck neutralizes a bit in 2010, I think his surface numbers will follow the peripherals. That’s kind of the point of SONAR.

* As I’ve talked about before, shortstop is the toughest (along with catcher) position to figure out when looking at the minor leagues. The position requires so much defensively, that players who are able to hit as well are a big bonus. The position has been revolutionized by a small group of guys (Hanley Ramirez, Tulo, Rollins) who have provided elite level offense at the position, but after the elite guys, you see the same things; guys that can field but who are merely average hitters at best. At the minor league level, its very similar.

* Danny Espinosa is one of my top sleeper guys in the minors. He doesn’t seem to generate a ton of buzz or respect from the PROs. A polished college product, the Nats sent him to the pitcher friendly Carolina League for his first season, and he delivered a very solid .264/.375/.460 line in 576 PA with 53 XBH and 29 SB. His 12.8% BB rate was very good, and though he did strike out a lot, he makes up for it with above average power for the position and the speed. He was thrown out 11 times, which indicates he has a bit of work to do there, but if he can buff some of the rough edges in his game, he looks like an upper echelon starter at SS in the majors. That’s quite a valuable property.

* Chase D’Arnaud, brother of former Phillie Travis, ranks 2nd. He’s considered more of a grinder, but he put up very nice numbers in his first full season. Derrik Gibson is more of a tools guy, with excellent speed and a great idea at the plate. They have virtually identical scores, so its more of banking on the upside of Gibson or the polish of D’Arnaud.

* Jiovanni Mier had one of the highest scores for a player drafted in 2009, as he proved to be a bit more advanced with the bat than advertised. Jonathan Galvez, who ranked #1 on the original list, still ends up ranked in the top 5. As they did at 3B, the Padres place 3 guys in the top 10, yet none of these guys get much love from the PROs.

* Phillie Jonathan Villar ranks 18th, and I’ve detailed him quite a bit in my Top 30 writeup. He’s one of “my guys” for 2010.

* Jaff Decker leads the list, and he’s a really interesting guy. For those of you who don’t know anything about Decker, he’s generously listed at 5’10/190 on baseball reference, but is generally considered to be about 20 pounds heavier. He draws very unflattering remarks on his athleticism, or lack thereof, and brings back fond memories of the Moneyball quote “we’re not selling jeans here!”. What he does is draw walks and hit for power, as he drew 85 walks in just 455 PA’s in 2009 and also ended up with 43 extra base hits. His power and eye are excellent, but the question becomes “where does he play?” At 19 going on 20, he’s already limited to LF, and he’s not particularly good there. If he played in a small home park, it would be less of a concern, but he calls the baseball version of the Grand Canyon his home, and that could pose problems. But his bat might just make up for any deficiencies in LF. The possibility of 1B is also there I suppose, but that would have to happen down the road, and the Padres already have A-Gonz and Kyle Blanks. An AL team might be better served trading for him and just using him at DH and going with it. Its never ideal, but it might get him to the majors and maximize his value.

* The next two guys are personal favorites. Weglarz’ surface line in 2009 didn’t look great; .227/.377/.431, but of course the walks and raw power both stand out. A 17.6% BB rate is elite, and his K rate was almost identical, meaning he controlled the zone and bat fairly well. He also posted a .204 ISO as a 21 year old in AA, a very solid number. His .253 BABIP is the biggest culprit here, and should normalize in 2010, making his 3 slash line look much better. He was young for AA, and I still think he has elite prospect potential, even if some of the scouts and evaluators are jumping off the bandwagon. Cody Johnson is another interesting guy. His raw power ranks at the top of the charts in the minors, and he could be a 40 HR hitter in the majors. His biggest problem is contact, as he’s struck out a ridiculous 478 times in 1,429 minor league PA’s. On the other hand, he’s started to draw his share of walks, increasing his BB rate to 12.9% in 2009 from 7.8% in 2008. He needs to make more contact, obviously, but his power is as good as it gets, and he’s shown its usable, not just a batting practice display. Like Weglarz, he was young for his level in 2009, 20 years old in A+ and even younger for AA in his brief finish to the season. He doesn’t get much credit for what he does right (patience, massive power) instead scouts are focusing on the strikeouts. There is some merit to that, its a definite concern, but age and his secondary skills outweigh that concern for now.

* Ryan Westmoreland, if you haven’t read, is now facing an injury much more serious than baseball, but that’s been the story of his pro career thus far. He looked like a 5 tool CF when drafted, and he still does, but he has other issues to work out right now.

* Hyped up Mets prospect Fernando Martinez settles in at #13 on the list, and like Westmoreland, his biggest issue has been staying healthy. The Mets have aggressively pushed him, and he’s been good considering his age, but he’s now a corner OF, which increases the requirements for his bat. He possesses good power and contact skills, though he’ll need to draw more walks if he’s going to be a complete hitter at the big league level.

* Thomas Hickman and Adam Milligan are two interesting guys for me. Hickman was seen as a very raw prepster when he was drafted, and in many ways, he still is. But guys like that can have it click at any moment, and he made some strides in 2009. Milligan is a football player trapped in a baseball player’s body, and has massive raw power, but needs to refine his approach quite a bit. He was limited because of an injury in 2009, but when he got on the field half way through the season, he put up great numbers.

* I’d make the argument that Desmond Jennings is the third best prospect in baseball behind Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg. He does everything really well, he’ll hit for more power than most leadoff guys, has an advanced idea at the plate, can draw walks, control the bat, and steal tons of bases at a very high rate. He’s basically Carl Crawford but with more plate discipline. The Rays sure seem to have a good idea when it comes to player development.

* Ryan Kalish is kind of like Desmond Jennings-lite, in that he does everything well, but he’s not as good defensively and doesn’t have quite the raw speed, but he might have a bit more power. Michael Brantley is big league ready and has speed to burn, as well as good bat control. Trayvon Robinson had his breakout season in 2009, but some scouts wonder how much of it was a product of the Cal League. He has excellent speed and developing power.

* The Phillies occupy spots 5 and 7 with Anthony Gose and Tyson Gillies. Gose pops up on the list after the tweak in the system to account for speed, and it shows you just how special he is in that aspect of the game. He has a long way to go in terms of refining his approach at the plate, but according to scouts he made some adjustments in the 2nd half of the season. Gillies isn’t as far behind, and his score is brought down a bit by playing in one of the best hitters parks in baseball. But as I detailed before, his translated line would have looked really good in even a tough hitters league like the FSL. I have Gillies ranked slightly higher because his approach is more advanced, while Gose might have more upside.

* Kirk Nieuwhenhuis (good luck spelling that) has already been labeled a 4th OF by some PROs, but I’m not buying that yet. He has a well rounded offensive game, just needs to cut down on the K’s. He might profile better defensively in a corner, but he should hit enough to productive.

* Robbie Grossman is a good sleeper guy. He posted a pedestrian .266/.373/.355 line in 535 PA in the MWL. Even though he didn’t hit for a ton of power, he drew an impressive 75 BB in 535 PA and managed to swipe 35 bases in 47 attempts. On the downside, he struck out an eye popping 164 times, something he’ll obviously have to address. A switch hitter, he posted an impressive .330/.437/.460 line against lefties (so batting RH), but struggled batting lefthanded, hitting just .248/.355/.325. He has a lot of upside, but he isn’t without risk.

* A few guys near the bottom of the Top 25 get a lot of run among scouts, including Aaron Hicks and Josh Reddick. Both guys had solid but unspectacular seasons in 2009. Hicks is the proverbial toolsheed, and now that he’s out of the pitcher friendly MWL, he should see his numbers improve. Reddick is probably better served in an outfield corner, and just needs to ramp things up a bit in 2010. He reached AAA as a 22 year old, and will likely get a full year there at 23, which is age appropriate.

* And here we have Jason Heyward, the best prospect in baseball, and the highest scorer in the SONAR system. Unfortunately for Phillies fans (and fans of any team other than ATL), this guy is going to be tormenting us for years to come. He does everything extremely well, and because of his advanced approach at the plate, he could put up an unprecedented big league season at age 20. Braves fans, enjoy him, because we’re all going to hate him.

* The NL East in general has it made when it comes to athletic, toolsy RF’s, as the Marlins have Mike Stanton, a freakishly strong power hitting rightfielder. Stanton’s minor league home runs are the stuff of folklore, as he’s hit a bunch of 450 foot bombs in his short career. The Marlins have pushed him aggressively, and he’s holding his own this year in spring training. Strikeouts are going to be an issue, but he’s learning to work deeper counts and draw walks, and even if he’s only a .265ish hitter, he should draw enough walks to post a .350 OB% and that will play well with his 40-45 HR power. He’s not as polished as Heyward, but he has more raw power and upside than Phillies prospect Domonic Brown, who ranks 5th on the list. Brown, though lacking the raw power or polish of Heyward and Stanton, is a blend of those two, offering the potential for 30 HR and 25 SB in a season. He has a good idea at the plate, drawing his share of walks, and as we’ve seen in spring training, he has a cannon for a right arm. Some scouts mentioned his defense being an issue last year, but he’s looked ok in limited spring training action, so it should be just a case of him needing innings and chances to refine that part of his game. At the plate, his swing mechanics are still less than ideal, but his raw athleticism and ability allow him to overcome any flaws there to turn around even the best fastballs.

* Joe Benson is another guy on my breakout list in 2010. He’s had trouble staying healthy, but had a nice year at the plate in 2009, going .284/.414/.399 in 334 PA. He has a good approach at the plate, though he could cut down on the strikeouts a bit. His career has been a start/stop affair since signing, so staying healthy would be a solid step in 2010, his 5th pro season. He has the ability to post solid walk rates, a bit more power, and 20 stolen bases if he can stay healthy for a full year and log 525 PA’s.

* Domingo Santana, who ranked a bit higher in the first run, still ends up a solid #13 on the list. Taking strikeouts into the equation hurts him a bit, but his upside and raw power are still off the charts, and he offers a lot of hope going forward. One of the youngest players in pro ball in 2009, the Phillies have the luxury of letting him set his own timeline and can take it slow with him.

Thus completes the rundown. The pitchers are up next. If you’re wondering where Player X is on the above lists, let me know and I can post them, but I kept it to 25 for space reasons. I’ll go over notable guys that PROs love but SONAR doesn’t when I post my Top 30′s for each individual team.

A quick note. Someone brought up a question about the pitching scores that were integrated into the overall evaluation of the Phillies prospects a few days ago. And I went back and looked, and there appears to be an error somewhere in the thousands of lines of data. So I’m going to spend some time trying to figure out what went wrong there. I double checked all of the offensive scores and they look perfect, so its just an issue with pitchers. I’ll post the revised chart for the Phillies guys when I do the writeup for all pitchers. Sorry for the mix up, its more frustrating on my end, trust me, but I’m determined to get this right before the season starts.

I’m not going to re-hash all of the details from the introduction pieces linked above. Most of the tenets of the study are still the same. The goal is to try and place all prospects on an even line, that is, adjusting their raw batting lines/pitching lines for the league they play in, factoring in their age related to level, the size of the sample, factoring the impact of their home park, and then drilling right down to their core peripherals that indicate true levels of skill, removing as much of the luck as possible. As I’ve openly stated from the beginning of this project, the end product, the SONAR score, is not meant to replace a scouting report, or be the sole measure by which you judge a prospect. Far from it. The SONAR score is meant to be another piece of data, either a confirmation point or a jumping off point. If you read about Prospect X and scouts saying he’s one of the best prospects in baseball, I want to be able to look at his score and see if his performance has backed up the claims from scouts. On the other side, if I see a player with a very high score, I want to investigate him more, try to figure out why he’s been successful, and compare his numbers against his scouting reports. If you look at the prospect world, different outlets assign different weights to their evaluations of prospects. Some evaluators will rank a guy with a terrible batting line in their Top 50, based on the player’s raw tools and abilities, even if he hasn’t hit a lick or retired many batters as a pro. On the other side, some people weigh performance more heavily, and will rank players who’ve reached the upper minors higher than players further away from the majors but with possibly more upside. The best evaluators take all of the information they have, they blend it together, and they come up with a ranking/evaluation of a player. But even the best guys miss on prospects every year, sometimes they miss badly. Its the nature of the prospect game, where a guy can go from a .220 hitter with seemingly no skills to a bona-fide stud prospect in a matter of a month. Players develop at different speeds, some guys break out at a very young age and never look back. Some break out much later in their careers, for whatever reason. Some guys develop new skills, they radically change their swing/delivery, or add a new pitch, or some kind of twist that alters their development. And really, some guys just never break out, or never perform up to expectations. The game of baseball is really hard, some guys with seemingly endless potential simply never make it. Because of that fact, you can look back at years past and see guys ranked in the Top 10 of prospect lists and say “who?”…such is the nature of the beast. SONAR is simply meant to be one more piece of the pie, one more fly in the proverbial ointment, one more piece of data to use in evaluating prospects.

So, a quick summary of what SONAR tries to do

* Adjust for league/level – How does a line in the California League compare to a line in the Florida State League?
* Adjust for home park – Hitters playing half their games in pitchers parks deserve to have their numbers adjusted
* Adjust for age – A .300/.400/.500 line for a 22 year old in A ball is different than a .300/.400/.500 line for a 19 year old in A ball
* Measure the core components – Getting on base, hitting for power, and using your speed. For pitchers, its the three true outcomes; strike outs, walks, and home runs.

And now, the changes I’ve made from the initial release

* Changes to core components – I’ve figured out a way to better evaluate the core components for a hitter, getting on base and raw power. I don’t want to get into specifics on the formula, but I was discovering quite a few guys with noisy numbers based on flukish BABIP results in small sample sizes, so I found a way to weed most of these out. I was also able to improve the way power is treated by the system. The result should be a much cleaner approach to the core skills for hitters.

* The addition of speed – One of the biggest things I wanted to try and address was how to include the stolen base into the score. As I highlighted in my original piece, stolen base numbers in the minors are often times a bit misleading. Pitchers have less refined pickoff moves, many minor league catchers do not have major league catching skills, and base runners are still learning how to actually steal bases with a solid technique. Nevertheless, based on feedback received early on, and from looking more at the numbers, I figured out a way to incorporate speed in a way I felt comfortable, and it has drastic changes to some players numbers, but I feel the changes are merited. As you’ll see with a player like Anthony Gose, the change was massive, but his speed represents his best raw tool, and is something that had to be addressed. If you look at a player like Gose and discount his speed, you are taking away most of his present value and future potential, because his game is always going to be predicated on speed. The stolen base itself is a much debated item in the statistically astute community, but players that can steal tons of bases at a high percentage have value, especially if the speed accompanies an otherwise strong skill set.

* Rewarding contact – This kind of ties into the first point about core skills. Before, there was no real adjustment for guys who showed excellent contact skills, and conversely, guys who struck out a ton. I felt this was an important adjustment to make. Guys who strike out at alarmingly high rates in the minors are greater risks, because the pitching doesn’t get any easier as you climb the ladder. On the other side, guys who make tons of contact will always have a chance to hit for average, based on the luck they have on balls in play. Contact rate isn’t weighted as heavily as some of the other core skills, but its an important factor to consider.

* Re-weighted pitching components – I decided to tweak the formula slightly for pitchers, giving a bit more weight to the strikeout. For a hitter, a strikeout is not as harmful as it is helpful for a pitcher. When the ball is put in play, anything can happen (good or bad), but when the batter can’t hit it, there is only one outcome. Guys who show swing and miss stuff in the minors have a better chance of achieving a higher ceiling in the majors. At the same time, control/command is important, as guys who have no idea where its going face a tougher climb, but the ability to make a batter swing and miss is arguably the most important skill a pitcher can have. I also found that guys who showed ridiculously good control in the low minors, but didn’t have the swing and miss stuff, often times were found out at higher levels, and this kind of goes along with the consensus opinion of scouts.

* Altering of the scale to evaluate all prospects – With all of the tweaks to the system, the scale where prospects generally fall has changed, but it applies to both pitchers and hitters. There are 5,598 players ranked in the system. A few of these guys may be eliminated as I go through individual teams and remove players who no longer have rookie eligibility, but you get the idea in terms of the number of guys in the system. This number includes both hitters and pitchers. There were 2,684 position players and 2,914 pitchers. The raw average score, that is, the average of the 5,598 players, is -6.57. That basically means that the “average” player in the SONAR universe has a score below zero. This wasn’t anything I planned, but intuitively it makes sense. Of the 5,600 players I looked at, obviously only a small fraction of them will be stars, a slightly larger subset will go on to become above average big leaguers, a slightly larger subset will be average big leaguers, a larger group will be 4A/up and down guys, and the large majority of them will never make it as even bench players in the majors. Its a numbers game, there are only 750 big league spots available (25 man roster x 30 teams) and then a few more on the 40 man who will shuttle up and down before either becoming a fixture at the big league level or falling off the map. The standard deviation for the entire sample was about 20, which also makes some sense. The difference between the highest score in the system (Jason Heyward 138.20) and the lowest score (Jerry Gil -193.5) was 331.7. The difference between the average prospect (-6.57) and the lowest score was greater than the difference between the average prospect and the highest score. 2,374 players had a score of at least 0.01 or higher, but only 447 players had a score of 14.00 or higher, which is essentially one standard deviation (20.67) away from the average. Going further up, there are a total of 76 prospects with a score of 40.00 or higher, 42 with a score of 50 or higher, and 19 with a score of 70 or higher. So the distribution is not a standard bell curve, it is skewed more toward the below average, but I think its intuitive.

The 20-80 scouting scale is considered the gold standard when discussing the tools of a prospect, so to keep that applicable to this score, I’ve developed a chart for easy reference.

Pretty self-explanatory stuff. Because of the exact nature of the score, you can compare two prospects within the same range and rank them however you choose, but a rough guideline is often times helpful.

As I mentioned a while back, the current version of SONAR will only have 1 year of data, 2009. After the 2010 season, I will again compute a 1 year score, but I’ll also produce a score which blends together the 2009 and 2010 data to come up with a composite type score. Because of the nature of prospects and how rapidly they can change, I think its important to place a strong weighting on the most recent data, but a historical track record is also important and something to definitely consider.

So now that you know about the changes I’ve made, as well as the system in general, I wanted to present a comparison chart for Phillies prospects, and how their scores have changed from the old version to the updated, improved current version. I’ll split the graphic up into a few pieces and break it down part by part.

* As I mentioned above, Anthony Gose was one of the biggest benefactors of the changes made, and its intuitive. His approach at the plate remains raw, but he has a number of things working solidly in his favor. First, he was one of the youngest players in the SAL, which boosts his score. More importantly, his speed ranks at the top of the list among all minor league players. He stole 76 bases at a 79% success rate, which is elite level. Domonic Brown also sees a bump up as a result of his work on the base paths.

* Tyson Gillies actually sees a drop in his score, and part of this has to do with his speed working against him. He managed an impressive 44 stolen bases, but at a 69% success rate, which doesn’t help his score to the level that Gose’s number helps him. Gillies also derived some of his on base average through 18 HBP in 2009, and while part of that is skill, part of it is also somewhat unpredictable, and an adjustment to the formula helps to account for this. His score still puts him comfortably in the above average category.

* The biggest drop on the list is Domingo Santana, and this again goes back to the feedback given by a number of people when discussing the scores. The big area where Santana was impacted was the contact aspect of his skill set, as he posted a very high K rate in his 139 PA. His score still places him in the above average tier, and we all know his upside is substantial, but it also adds in more of a hedge because of the swings and misses, lowering his score a bit. Still, a score of more than 25.00 in a very limited sample is very impressive, its just more in line with what you would expect to see. In the same light, Sebastian Valle sees his score dip significantly, as the emphasis on drawing walks as a core skill hurts his overall profile. I highlighted this in my writeup of him in the Top 30.

* Travis Mattair and Derrick Mitchell receive big bumps here. With Mattair, the emphasis on drawing walks helped boost his score. Mitchell’s surface numbers were bad in 2009, but underneath he showed very nice power in a tough hitter’s league, and he wasn’t obscenely old for Clearwater.

* Quintin Berry gets a bump up, largely on the basis of his excellent speed and stolen base potential, as well as his ability to draw a walk. His score is held down by his age, and his propensity for the strikeout, as well as the lack of power. Aaron Altherr becomes a positive value prospect, as he drew a few walks and also swiped a few bases in his very limited sample.

* Tyler Cloyd gains some value here thanks to the tweak which placed a bit more emphasis on home run suppression. Guys who are home run prone in the minors are often times even more home run prone at the major league level, so it is definitely a peripheral to pay close attention to.

* Steve Susdorf sees his stock take a turn down, as he possesses almost no speed, and his walk rate and power numbers were just average for his age compared to his level.

* A bunch of big movers here, including Zach Collier and Winder Torres. Collier, especially, still showed a hint of secondary ability even with his massive struggles in 2009. He stole 20 bags and drew 32 walks, even though his contact rate is really holding his score down. It wasn’t a great year by any means, but not everything was negative.

* Juan Ramirez still shows up on the wrong side of the ledger, but the altered formula likes his performance a bit more. We really won’t have any idea about him until seeing him pitch in a somewhat neutral environment. Julio Rodriguez sees his score drop significantly, as his HR rate is a significant red flag going forward. Still a lot to like there, and a full season (or at least 70+ innings at Williamsport) should give us a better idea.

* Freddy Galvis and Joe Savery see a bump up, but both guys still have a long way to go.

Over the next few days/weeks, I hope to have the SONAR page at the top of the site updated with new spreadsheets for all 30 teams, and then the updated position by position breakdowns. For me, the initial output a few months ago was very important, because it allowed me to have something to look at, and when I went through the results on a more individual basis, it helped me to uncover some of the flaws in the system, and some of the things that needed to be improved. The feedback given originally was also very helpful, and I’m hoping that as the season progresses and we look back at this data, we can figure out ways to even further improve the system. I’m somewhat limited in what I can do, because I only have access to basic data, but I think for what I want SONAR to be (another data point), it can be very useful.