Phuture Phillies

This is something I’ve been spending a lot of time working on with the completion of my Reader Top 30, and I feel like I have things where I want them, so I wanted to make another detailed post talking about my new creation, the SONAR score. If you’ve been around for a while, you read my introduction pieces here and here back in November. Like any good social scientist, I set out with a goal; to try and figure out a way to evaluate minor league prospects across all leagues, factoring in all of the aspects of the game that can be accurately measured, to try and evaluate what prospects have done, and which players might succeed/struggle going forward based on their peripherals. Along the way, I encountered many difficulties, including the simple amount of work it entails to code over 5,000 players into a system, and then trying to figure out if the formulas I used were accurate, helpful, or off the mark. My test run was published in November, and then I started to do position by position breakdowns. It was during this process, when I was looking at the numbers in depth (and based on reader feedback) that I discovered some of the flaws in the system, and I set about fixing the errors, making adjustments, and trying to make the system the best it can be. As any person who tries to create something new, the first run (or first 10 in this case) rarely is ever perfect. But a good scholar always tries to improve, to figure out what is missing, and to try and make it the best it can be. So that is where we are now. Check below for the details.

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The next installment of the SONAR series is going to focus on corner outfielders. I’ve decided to group the two positions (LF and RF) together, because its common for prospects in the minors to switch between the outfield spots, and in many cases, you’ll see a player with 70 games in RF and 55 in LF, his team obviously sees him in a corner, and his arm is probably borderline in right field, but they are giving him a chance there. The difference in LF and RF is small, but it is an important difference. Rightfielders are required to make the longest throw, from the right field corner to 3B, while the LF’s longest throw is to home plate. A corner outfielder is less valuable than a CF in terms of defense, and a right fielder is a tick or two more valuable than a leftfielder. Both positions are more valuable defensively than 1B, though the offensive expectation in LF is slightly higher than RF. If you’re new to the concept of SONAR, how it works, what it means, etc etc, then I suggest you read this, then check here for more scores and information. Check below the fold for more

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Welcome to the latest installment of the SONAR takes on series. If you’re new to the concept, I recommend you check out my intro piece on SONAR here, then check out the reports for first base, second base, shortstop, and third base so you have an idea of how I’m approaching the project. After catcher, I’m going to do the corner outfielders together, then centerfield, and that will wrap up the position player side of the ledger. I’ll then break down the pitchers, before finally releasing a top 100 prospects based on SONAR scores. After that, I’m going to reveal my top 15 prospects for each team, which will be a synthesis of my own personal opinions of the prospects, plus my work here with SONAR. We really won’t know how accurate my readings on these prospects are until we have multiple years of data, but it should be fun to look back at these lists next year and see which guys proved to be real and which faded into obscurity. So lets get started with the catchers…

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Sorry for the delay after the 3B writeup, I took some time to get all of the pitcher reports in order, but now we’re moving on to the shortstop position, one of the toughest to evaluate, along with catchers. If you’re new to the concept of the SONAR score, I recommend you read the intro here, and then check out the reports for 1B, 2B, and 3B. SONAR is a look at what a player has accomplished statistically, looking at the metrics that are most indicative of future success, and putting it into the proper context with regard to league, level and age. Its a one year score, based on pure 2009 data, and is not meant as a replacement for scouting reports, just as a supplemental piece of data, one which should be used in conjunction with other evaluation methods. After 2010, a new statistic will be introduced which combines 2 years of SONAR data to form a weighted score. For now, we just have one score for 2009. Lets get right into it.

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The third installment of the SONAR position by position breakdown focuses on the hot corner, looking at the best 3B prospects in the game and how they fared with my newly created metric. if you’re new to the whole SONAR concept, I recommend you start here, then check out the report for first base and second base. Third base has its difficulties, just like the up the middle positions, because the defensive value dropoff from 3B to the positions further down the defensive spectrum is steep, especially the drop from 3B to 1B, which is a common transition for some slow footed sluggers. Check below the fold and we’ll dig right in

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The position by position breakdown of prospects according to SONAR scores continues today with 2B. If you missed the first installment, check here. Before getting into the position, again just a few quick reminders. This statistic is based on 1 year of data. It does not factor in a player’s draft slot, his signing bonus, his raw tools, or any kind of projection for his future ability. It tells a story of what he did in 2009 based on his age, what level of the minors he was at, what league he played in, and how he was affected by his home park. There are other aspects that need to be considered when trying to evaluate prospect status, but those aspects are subjective, this score is not. This is meant to be taken as a data point for further confirmation/investigation, and to give a snapshot of the player’s true performance in 2009. After the 2010 season, a two year combination score will be used, as well as a 1 year score, but for now, the statistic only considers 2009. Check below for more…

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So this will be the kickstart to my look at position player prospects across baseball based on the SONAR score statistic that I’ve come up with. If you’re unfamiliar with it, I’d suggest starting HERE. As I’ve mentioned a number of times, the score is not meant to replace scouting reports or looking at a player’s physical tools. The score is meant to give another perspective, to evaluate what the player has done statistically, and how his numbers stack up based on his age, what league he played in, and his home park. As with every evaluation system, there will be guys who score very high and very low that won’t end up going in that direction as a prospect. This could be for any number of reasons, whether it could be injury related, switching to a new position, or anything else that impacts season to season changes. As I’ve stressed a number of times, prospect status is very fluid and subject to change quite quickly. After next season, I’m going to release a second version of SONAR, maybe called SONAR2, which will be a weighted score that takes two years of data into account, instead of just 1 this year. But I don’t have the time to go back and retroactively score all of 2008, so I’m just using the 2009 data for year 1, and then next year there will be regular SONAR scores, as well as SONAR2 scores. And again, even though I’ve stressed it a number of times, this is not meant to replace anything, its simply another data point, and something we’ll have to wait and see on to determine its effectiveness or use.

Check below and we’ll get started.

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As I posted on the SONAR dedicated page of the site, I’ve completed the offensive sheets for all 30 MLB teams, and you can find the links organized by division. If there are any errors with the links, please post in the comments section on the SONAR page. Now that I’ve finished all 30 sheets, I can start to look at the big picture, how the teams compare, and then begin to break it down position by position. I’ll also do a similar setup for all 30 teams with regard to the pitching side of things, before doing a cumulative rank of the 30 teams. After that, I’ll produce my top 15 prospects for each organization, which will be a combination of the SONAR scores as well as my own personal opinion based on the info I’ve gathered and my study of the prospects involved. So check below for more…

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Someone requested this, and it will definitely be interesting to look at. I have a big database of data for all 30 teams, which I want to try and put together, but I just haven’t had the time. But I can easily find the scores for Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez. I’ll also give the scores for Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud again, which I actually already gave before, but I’ll re-post them just for reference. Check below the fold..

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By now I’m going to assume that you’ve seen my introductory piece on this new statistic I’ve created, which I’ve dubbed the SONAR Score. Because I don’t have to do a huge setup here explaining the premise of the entire project, I’m going to address a few quick points before getting to the pitching scores, then just dig right in. I won’t comment on everyone, obviously, because there are over 80 players on the sheet. Not all of these guys are legit prospects, obviously, but they are all scored on the same scale, all of the adjustments are applied, so including them does no harm. I also left Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco on the list as a point of reference, I’m well aware that they are no longer in the Phillies system. So, with that intro, lets get down to it.

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While all of the focus over the last month or so has been on the Phillies quest to repeat as World Series champions, I’ve been spending an inordinate amount of time refining and working on a system that I’ve been building for 2 years now to analyze the performance of minor league players. The system has gone through a bunch of changes, there are aspects of it that I’m still not 100% happy with, but right now, its at a place that I like, and the last changes made to it will come over time, as I figure out better ways to improve it. And like all cool systems, it needed a name, so I give you the SONAR Score system, a system that tries to dig beneath the surface (Sonar, get it) to analyze minor leaguers. So, check below the fold for more.

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