A couple reports from Mike Drago and Anthony Burkhart on Twitter, (sorry to them I don’t know who “scooped” who – they’re both getting the same info on these couple items, at least). Continue reading
Since there is a lot of debate about the placement of guys towards the back of the rankings with huge swings in their value. Brad and I are going to take on some of them that we have very different opinions on and debate where we think they should rank and what their upside is going forward.
Brody Colvin (RHP):
Ranking: Brad – 19, Matt – 30-35
Brad: Listen, I’m of the mindset that relievers, even those that are headed for the back of the bullpen, don’t belong high on prospect lists until they are knocking on the MLB door, (Aumont and DeFratus are in my top 15, Kenny Giles barely makes my top 30, for example).
So, if I thought there were zero chance Colvin was going to make it as a starter, or if I didn’t think his back-up plan was a back-end bullpen guy, I would probably have him way down the list - maybe in the early 30s. But there is still a chance he pulls his control together and sticks as a starter, at which point his ceiling would probably go back to a mid-rotation starter at least. He has the stuff to do it, but his control is obviously the issue. Continue reading
The strength of the Phillies system for the past few years has been right handed starting pitching. In 2010 the Lakewood rotation of Trevor May, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, Jonathan Pettibone, and Julio Rodrgiuez were dubbed the “Baby Ace”. Since then, the only guy to survive trades and decline has been Jonathan Pettibone, but he has been joined by some interesting arms.
As I started to write up the right handed pitchers it became clear that their is two sets of right handed starters in the Phillies system, one is more advanced, usually composed of pitchers in the high minors or college pitchers, the other group which will be addressed in the next post are the rawer younger pitchers who still haven’t made it above low A-ball.
Just a reminder that when evaluating any young pitcher that there are many things that can go wrong. We still do not fully understand what causes pitchers to break down and often it can be unpredictable and sudden. Additionally many starter will not develop the necassary control or secondary pitches to stay in a rotation and their future may be in a bullpen.
Ethan Martin (23) – Going into 2012 Martin was a failed prospect, a former first round pick who struggled greatly with his control. Martin rebounded in 2012 and was obtained from the Dodgers in exchange for Shane Victorino. Martin has a fastball that can sit anywhere from 91-97 and has good late life, this is paired with a sharp cutter-like slider, and a changeup that flashes good late life. Martin still struggles with control and his issues can come in spurts where he will overthrow his fastball and fail to keep it in the zone. If he can continue to improve his control Martin could be a mid-rotation starter who could be a #2 if he can also add consistency to his off-speed pitches, if not he has a future has a high leverage reliever with a good fastball/slider combination. Martin will start the year in the AAA rotation and could be ready by late 2013, but it is likely that he will need the whole season before being a contender for a rotation spot in 2014.
You can view the list in its entirety here. May came in at #54, Biddle at #78 and Colvin at #80. I’m not going to go in to specifics about my love/hate for the list. Everyone is entitled to create their lists, and everyone has different opinions of players. I think there are a number of weird placements on this particular list, and I’m not sure Colvin is a Top 100 prospect right now, but I won’t complain about any hype/positive reports he generates. The blurbs are free for all to read, so I’ll post them here. But go check out the full list if you’re curious
Scouting report: May is starting to develop into a more complete pitcher and not just a thrower. The fastball is up to 95 mph and it has plenty of sink. May has no trouble maintaining velocity deep into his starts. He complements his fastball with an above-average curve and a changeup that shows glimpses of being above-average as well. While he still walks a good number of hitters, he lowered his walk rate considerably and showed better overall command.
Upside potential: He’ll keep refining his stuff and command, eventually settling in as a very durable No. 2 or 3 starter.
Scouting report: A strong and durable southpaw, Biddle has the makings of three above-average to plus pitches in his arsenal. He’s shown the ability to run his fastball in the low 90s. He has a changeup that could be plus when all is said and done, and although his curve is inconsistent, it’s tighter and has a harder break than when he was in high school. He needs to improve his command, not rare for such a young arm, but he did lower his walk rate in the second half of 2011.
Upside potential: Even if he moves one station at a time, Biddle profiles as a sturdy, innings-eating lefty who will have a long career in the middle of a big league rotation.
Scouting report: Despite the rough 2011 season, Colvin still has pure stuff, and a projectable pitcher’s body, that would be the envy of many a pitching prospect. His fastball is plus at times, up into the mid-90s with good sink that generates ground balls. Both his curve and his changeup have the chance to be very good secondary pitches, and he’s shown a better feel for the offspeed pitch in the past then many his age. His command suffered in 2011, something that will have to improve for him to move forward.
Upside potential: He has the stuff to pitch near the top of a rotation. If the command doesn’t bounce back, his stuff would play well in the bullpen.
Here are 4 articles you may or may not have read.
First, new farm director Joe Jordan says all the positive things you’d expect a new farm director to say about his new prospects.
Phillippe Aumont seems to be in the right frame of mind heading in to 2012.
Brody Colvin talks about his rough 2011.
Trevor May talks about yoga.
BA continues their run of league top 20s with the Florida State League, where the Phillies dominated the list, with 3 current players and 2 former players. The current crop includes Trevor May at #4, Sebastian Valle at #12, and Brody Colvin at #19, with former Phillies property Jon Singleton coming in at #7 and Jarred Cosart coming in at #9. You can see the full list here. Do not copy/paste the blurbs. Here is a quick summation
May – Good low 90s fastball, toying with a 2 seamer (which is GREAT news), curve and changeup are solid but both still need work, and his command is still his biggest question mark
Valle – Good raw power, ability to barrel balls to RF and his defense continues to make impressive progress, as he has a strong arm and improving footwork
Colvin – 90-94 hitting 95, but struggling with his secondary offerings and his fastball command and has trouble repeating his delivery (the cause of the command issues, obviously)
Singleton – Nothing groundbreaking here, good bat, good approach, raw power, but struggles against LHP
Cosart – Messy delivery, but huge arm strength, changeup grades out above his curve right now, both are inconsistent, some scouts think he’s a reliever (which I agree with)
I expect we’ll have a name or two on the Eastern League list. The FSL has 12 teams, so to have 3 of the 20 and 5 if you count the traded prospects shows the depth of Clearwater’s roster this year. Also, Pettibone, Jiwan James and Rodriguez missed the list, and both probably got consideration.
Updated running list
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
SAL: (1) – Jesse Biddle, LHP (6th)
FSL: (3) – Trevor May, RHP (4th), Sebastian Valle, C (12th), Brody Colvin, RHP (19th)
Let your mind race as to why he was pulled. He allowed a hit and a walk while striking out 4. Is he injured? Is a trade pending? If someone is in Clearwater, a check-in would be helpful.
Update –> I got word via email he left with a groin strain.
David Hale offers updates on a number of our walking wounded here. Colvin will be back soon, while Singleton is still shut down, but the team is confident its just a normal ankle sprain with no long term ramifications. Tyson Gillies is starting to resume some baseball activities, but the team wants to limit the possibility of another hamstring setback, so they are taking it slow. Check out the article for the full details.
Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that Brody Colvin has been placed on the disabled list by Clearwater after failing to complete the third inning yesterday. Multiple outlets are reporting that the injury is a back injury.
One other note, pitcher Ryan Sasaki, a 13th round pick in the 2009 draft has been suspended for 50 games for an elevated testosterone/epitestosterone level.
Alex Eisenberg, the brains behind baseball-intellect.com has provided me with tons of good Phillies related bits in the past, and he reached out to me to provide this detailed scouting report, along with mechanical analysis, of Phillies prospect Brody Colvin. Eisenberg ranked Colvin 4th in the Phillies system and assigned him a B grade. His full thoughts will be outlined in the post below. In addition, he’s offering a special deals for access to his members only exclusive content by clicking on this link. He provides tons of excellent scouting reports, video analysis, and other goodies during the season, including coverage leading up to the draft. So check that out if you’re interested. Now, the full report from Alex on Brody Colvin, below the fold.