So this is going to be my last post here. I already said a good bye of sorts a few week ago, so I’ll make this about the team and the GM, and not about me.
As you all likely know, I have been far from an Amaro apologist in the past. The biggest mistake of Amaro’s tenure, and the ultimate downfall of any hope to compete in the 2012-2015 timeframe, has to be the Ryan Howard deal. It was the domino that took down the “whole big thing of dominoes” that was a perennial contender. It seemed at the time like Amaro was hedging against the free agent first base market in the winter of 2011/12, which was set to include Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. So when Pujols contract runs out in 2035 or whatever, and we compare those players’ hindsightedly questionable deals to Howard’s, Amaro may have gotten off lightly. However, he could have done any number of other things to get the same (read:no) production out of first base, and allowed himself a great deal of flexibility (Cody Overbeck at first and Jayson Werth in right, anyone?). Of course, the what ifs and the maybe woulddas are nice now. Who knows what wild deals Amaro would have turned to try to fill the perceived gap Howard left in the middle of the lineup. Continue reading
Last week of the year. Three at Miami to close out a ten game road trip and three at home with the Braves over the weekend. Last place in the division looks like a near certainty at this point. A protected pick is all but guaranteed as well, as the Phils sit four games “behind” San Diego for 19th in baseball, (oops, I meant 20th, the first unprotected pick) with just 5 games to play. Still looks like they could luck into as high as 25th place, for the 7th overall pick next year, and they currently sit in 23rd place, in line for the 9th overall pick.
Seven on the west coast this week. Four in San Diego then the weekend in Oakland.
The Phillies sit in 21st place overall in the MLB, which does afford them the last of eleven protected picks (with that Houston 2014 re-pick at #2). The club is even in the loss column and just a game up in the win column on San Diego right now, so honestly, I would be fine with a Padres sweep for the betterment of the club in the long term. Perfectly reasonable that the Phils could finish in the bottom eight, (pick #9), below San Diego and the White Sox, and less reasonable but still plausible that they could finish as low as the bottom five, (pick #6), if the Cubs, Astros, and Red Sox all get a little bit hot and the Phillies do not. Seems to me that Colorado, Texas, Arizona and Minnesota are locked in ahead of the Phils, as they’re currently lined up to fill out the top five picks around Houston at #2.
As for the other direction, if the Phils get a little hot, they could potentially pass any of Cincinnati, the Mets, Marlins and Rays. Passing all four would push them down to the 16th pick, but passing any of those four would put them in a position where a QO free agent signing would lose them that pick. I’ll say that IMO, there’s no reason they ought to be signing any QO free agents this year based on my quick look at free agent power rankings. However, if the right name fell to them at the right price, it would be lousy to have to weigh it against losing a pick that could theoretically help them in the next couple years, assuming they plan to repeat their 2014 draft strategy by picking another advanced college player.
Since I hijacked yesterday’s General Discussion with my departure announcement, here’s a fresh thread for all things Phillies. Something of note – Maikel Franco is batting second tonight with JRoll out of the lineup. He fits the “contact hitter” part of the traditional number two hitter. Not sure he fits any of the other typical traits you’d expect there. Maybe he’ll turn out to be a really awesome bunter and just no one’s ever given him the chance, ya know?
As the title of this post suggests, here’s an announcement – I’m leaving PhuturePhillies.com as of the end of this regular season. I’ll post a couple more weekly discussions and maybe a thought or two about the state of the org before I go, but it’s been a long year after two long ones prior, and it just got to the point where I wasn’t enjoying myself anymore. I’ll still be doing my Crashburn Alley stuff, and I hope that writing for that different, less prospect-intense audience will help bring some challenge and fun back into my writing.
A huge thanks to Gregg for bringing me on board in the first place, back when I was nothing more than a regular commenter with some questionable opinions about certain things, (notably big-bodied catching prospects from Texas). It’s been a great three years, and I’ve enjoyed writing for all of you and interacting with those of you who boldly choose to try out your opinions in the comments. I look forward to seeing what the person who comes after me has to say about the day-to-day goings on of the 2015 Phillies Minor Leagues.
Anyway, as I said, I’ll be around for a couple more weeks. So please – PLEASE – no tears, folks. There’s no use crying over minor league baseball websites. Or is it “there’s no crying in minor league baseball websites”? Perhaps its both. In which case, it’s a double negative, and you all better get the water works…uhh…working…over my departure. Open the spigot of your heart and let the sadness flow out of you like a hot summer rain!
Or talk about Phils/Bucs. Whatever.
Well, that was something. And I’m totally fine that it happened against the Braves. Because they’re bad and I dislike them.
August 31 marks the end of the biggest period of waiver trades, as any club looking for help that could be with them through the postseason needs to add that player to their active roster by August 31. There are a couple Phillies who have not cleared waivers, namely Hamels and Byrd, (I think that’s it), but pretty much every other healthy veteran is likely available for the right payoff. I wouldn’t count on much happening, though. Hopefully Bastardo finds a new home, and maybe Burnett, but probably not, IMO. Who else are you thinking might be moved?
A long homestand kicks off with the Mariners tonight, tomorrow night and Wednesday afternoon. Off day Thursday, then three with the Cardinals this weekend and Washington next week.
Yo no soy Cardenal o Nacional, either. For the record.
Per a couple different sources on Twitter, notably Steven Falk (@smfalk) who detailed them all, WIL’s Aaron Brown has been promoted to Lakewood, along with Jesen Therrien and Nick Rodesky (from GCL). Dan Child has been sent from LKW to GCL, reliever Aaron Baker was sent from LKW to CLR, and Sam Hiciano was put on the DL.
The big club is off today. Sounds like Ruben Amaro did the Ice Bucket Thing for ALS but it’s only on Facebook. Not enough reason to get me to sign into my Facebook. Someone let me know if he falls on the ice. That would do it.
At home today for the wrap-around with the Mets at 1:05, then two late-nighters at Anaheim starting tomorrow, an off day, then three at San Francisco. At least both weekend games are 4:15 EST. Back home next Monday with Seattle in town. No King Felix, but Hisashi Iwakuma looks like he’s lined up for Monday the 18th, if you’re inclined to head out for a good visiting pitcher. He’s having a really fine year.