Category Archives: Other Stuff

Hot or Not

Week number two in the books and a look back at the time period of April 10-16…Some quick notes…Cameron Perkins keeps the conversation going strong with continued production…Lakewood prospects really struggling at the plate… The Reading bullpen had a very good week, led by Kenny Giles.  I would give him another half dozen or so appearances and then get him moved up….Anyone beginning to notice Cody Forsythe?…Tyson Gillies doing what he does.

Hot Hitters: Cameron Perkins (.524, 7R, HR, 7RBI, SB); Cesar Hernandez (.474, 5R); Willians Astudillo (.471, HR, 4RBI); Angelo Mora (.385); Albert Cartwright (.353), Aaron Altherr (.313, 4R, SB)

Not Hot Hitters: Andrew Pullin (.056); Anthony Phillips (.077); Dylan Cozens (.130); Justin Parr (.133); Zach Green (.136); Ronny Cedeno(.143); Tyson Gillies (.154); Maikel Franco (.167); Samuel Hiciano (.167); JP Crawford (.174)

Hot Starters: Miguel Nunez (2 starts, 13IP 15H 3ER 0BB 10K); Tyler Viza (2 starts, 12IP 11H 4ER 1BB 8K);  Luis Paulino (5IP 3H 1ER 0BB 3K) Continue reading

Where have all the pitchers gone?

There has been a lot said about the lack of pitching in the Phillies system.  A lot of blame has been put at the feet of the development staff for failing to get major league players out of the talent in the system.  There have been other complaints about the prospects traded away or the prospects traded for as well.  The end result has been that I only had 8 pitchers in my Top 30 Phillies prospects and of those only 2 starting pitchers began the year healthy (Biddle and Gonzalez).

The factor that no one seems to be talking about is the composition of the Phillies drafts over the past 6 years.  With the “oldest” prospects in the system being from the 2008 draft class, it seemed like a good place to start.  So here are all the pitchers the Phillies drafted either for high money or are still in the system from the 2008 to 2013 drafts. Continue reading

Fun with PECOTA Comps

Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived.  I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point.  You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King.  But enough of that.

The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect.  They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things.  These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun)  These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.

1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon Continue reading

Hot or Not

Our first look around the organization at who is “hot” and who is “not” over the past week. Look for this article on Thursday or Friday morning each week.  For hitters to qualify, they must have 12AB’s over the last week.

A few quick points: Gotta like the way Crawford and Cozens started in Lakewood…Is it too early to be concerned about Franco, Joseph and Tocci, I think so….Severino Gonzalez with the best results of any starter in the organization last week without the best “stuff”…Dominant is an understatement for the week Kenny Giles had…Kyle Simon was unexpectedly awful in each of his outings for Lehigh Valley…Interesting that Luis Garcia has been anointed the closer in Lehigh Valley for now, with a very good week for the former barber/mover.

Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.500); Brock Stassi (.429); Peter Lavin (.417); Brian Pointer (.385); Willians Astudillo (.385); Carlos Alonso (.375, 4RS, 4RBI, SB); JP Crawford(.368, 4RS, HR, SB); Cameron Perkins (.333); Dylan Cozens (.321, 4RBI, 2SB)

Not Hot Hitters: ALbert Cartwright (.000, 0-13); Willie Carmona (.050); Justin Parr (.067); Leandro Castro (.091); Maikel Franco (.111); Steve Susdorf (.111); Tommy Joseph (.118); Carlos Tocci (.143); Matt Tolbert (.154); Zach Green (.160) Continue reading

Season Predictions

Last year’s predictions went pretty well so I thought I would give it another try this year.  These predictions are based purely on opinion, and have no guarantee of coming true.

1. Both Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle do not exhaust their prospect eligibility.  Both are not called up until rosters expand.  Biddle puts up good numbers but is blocked in the major league level and left to make adjustments in AAA.

2.  Yoel Mecias comes back healthy and is a borderline Top 5 prospect in the system.  He is promoted to Clearwater after dominating Lakewood for a few starts.

3. Roman Quinn plays SS in Clearwater when he is back on the field, the Phillies begin experimenting with him at 2B after J.P. Crawford is promoted at the beginning of August. Continue reading

Positional Preview: Relief Pitchers

For sanity’s sake I have not included all relievers in the system.  For the most part, low minors relievers are not prospects unless they move very quickly or have elite stuff.  Additionally it is hard to tell whether a pitcher is actually a starter or a reliever.

Players:

MLB: Jonathan Papelbon - 33, Mike Adams - 35, Justin De Fratus - 26, Jake Diekman - 27, Antonio Bastardo - 28, Brad Lincoln - 28, BJ Rosenberg - 28
AAA: Ethan Martin  (9) - 24, Kyle Simon - 23, Luis Garcia - 27, Jeremy Horst - 28, Mike Nesseth - 25, Shawn Camp - 38, Phillippe Aumont – 25
AA: Jay Johnson - 24, Ken Giles (14) – 23, Austin Wright - 24, Nefi Ogando - 24, Tyler Knigge  - 25, Brody Colvin - 23
A+: Dan Child - 21, Steven Inch - 23
A-: Yacksel Rios - 20, Manaure Martinez - 22 Continue reading

Positional Preview: Starting Pitching

Players:

MLB: Cliff Lee - 35, Cole Hamels - 30, A.J. Burnett  – 37, Roberto Hernandez - 33, Kyle Kendrick - 29, Jeff Manship - 29
AAA: Jonathan Pettibone - 23, David Buchanan - 24, Barry Enright - 28, Greg Smith  – 30, Sean O’Sullivan - 26, Adam Morgan (20) - 24
AA: Jesse Biddle (2) – 22, Severino Gonzalez (19) – 21, Hoby Milner - 23, Luis Paulino - 24, Perci Garner - 25
A+: Nic Hanson - 21, Ethan Stewart - 23, Miguel Nunez - 21, Jon Prosinski - 23, Colin Kleven - 22
A-: Tyler Viza – 19, Shane Martin – 22, Mark Leiter Jr. – 23, Ranfi Casimiro – 21, Alejandro Arteaga – 19, Yoel Mecias (11) – 20, Shane Watson (21) – 20
SS/Rk: Lewis Alezones - 18, Denton Keys - 19, Mitch Gueller - 20, Drew Anderson - 20, Franklyn Vargas - 19 Continue reading