Category Archives: Other Stuff

Some Stat Lines That Intrigue Me

All of the stat lines are still very small sample size, but here are some stat lines that are intriguing me for a variety of reasons.  These stats may not continue, they may improve or decline, but nevertheless they are things that are showing me something now.

Tommy Joseph: 8.6% BB% 12.1% K% .220 ISO

Joseph is a guy that had a ton of helium last spring coming off of Spring Training.  He started slowly and then injuries ended his year.  Joseph’s line so far is a little bit pedestrian .240/.328/.460, due to a .220 BABIP.  Joseph’s hit tool is never going to be an asset, but if he can keep the srikeout rate under 20% and show the plus power, he is a big leaguer.  The reports on the defense are a bit cooler, he still has trouble with recieving, but the arm strenght is still there.  I am cautiously optimistic on Joseph.  I want to see more from him, but a full year in Reading will be good for him. Continue reading

The Reading Mirage: Pitching Overview

Yesterday we took a look at the hitting trends as hitters progress through Reading on the way to AAA.  The goal today is to give a much shorter overview for pitching stats.  There are more gaps in this group of players, and it is further muddied by the combination of starters and reliever.  Additionally the group as a whole is fairly week due to trades and burnout before reaching AA.

For this study we followed Jon Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick, Trevor May, Vance Worley, Phillippe Aumont, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, J. A. Happ, Michael Stutes, B.J. Rosenberg, Tyler Cloyd, Austin Hyatt, Jesse Biddle, Carlos Carrasco, JC Ramirez, David Buchanan, Adam Morgan, and Joe Savery.  For the stats we are looking mostly at fielding independent statistics, so BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and FIP.  Continue reading

Hot or Not

Several interesting talking points looking back at the time period of 4/17-4/23….Carlos Tocci seems to be getting the hang of Lakewood, albeit expectedly without power…Very nice to see Tommy Joseph rounding into form….Any Spring Training excitement about Larry Greene Jr. has dissipated quickly…Jesse Biddle, ’nuff said….Greg Smith should get some attention the next time the Phils need a spot starter….Seth Rosin with a nice re-initiation into the organization, while Kenny Giles keeps doing what he does (19K’s in 9IP)…Jay Johnson was on my list of players to watch pre-season.  That is not working out so far with one of the worst weeks in “Hot or Not” history.

Hot Hitters: Koyie Hill (.444); Steve Susdorf (.440); Cameron Perkins (.389, 3R 1HR 5RBI); Tyler Henson (.389); Carlos Tocci (.381, 5R); Tommy Joseph (.350, 2R 2HR 7RBI); Willians Astudillo (.350); JP Crawford (.333, 5R, SB); Reid Brignac (.320, 8R 1HR 4RBI); Andrew Pullin (.316)

Not Hot Hitters: Larry Greene (.000, 0-17); Brian Pointer (.087); Troy Hanzawa (.133); Harold Martinez (.138); Edgar Duran (.143); Aaron Altherr (.167); Justin Parr (.167); Maikel Franco (.185)

Continue reading

The Reading Mirage: Hitting Overview

Every year a prospect emerges in Reading and puts up huge numbers that excite Phillies fans.  Sometimes those players sustain their surprise, but more times that not, the player fades off to mediocrity.  For this study I took 18 players that played for Reading in the past 6 years.  Those players were Cameron Rupp, Darin Ruf, Derrick Mitchell, Leandro Castro, Cody Asche, Matt Rizzotti, Jim Murphy, Mike Costanzo, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Sebastian Valle, Maikel Franco, Tuffy Gosewisch, Michael Taylor, Steve Susdorf, and Domonic Brown.  All players were chosen for playing both Clearwater and Reading, and in all but two cases in Lehigh Valley.  The sample sizes across the levels are not equal and individual stats may not have stabilized enough to make individual declarations at this time.

In terms of stats, I started with the triple flash lines (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging) and their derivatives (OPS, ISO, BABIP).  Then I looked at defense independent statistics, strikeout percent, walk percent, and home runs per plate appearance.  Lastly in cases where batted ball data existed (seasons 2011 or later), that data has been included.  Additionally the age of each prospect was recorded.  In cases of multiple seasons at a level, I first looked for the larger sample size, if not, then the season preceding the promotion to Lehigh Valley.  In terms of aggregate numbers I am looking at pure unweighted averages of rate stats and percentages, this is an effort to weight each player equally. Continue reading

Hot or Not

Week number two in the books and a look back at the time period of April 10-16…Some quick notes…Cameron Perkins keeps the conversation going strong with continued production…Lakewood prospects really struggling at the plate… The Reading bullpen had a very good week, led by Kenny Giles.  I would give him another half dozen or so appearances and then get him moved up….Anyone beginning to notice Cody Forsythe?…Tyson Gillies doing what he does.

Hot Hitters: Cameron Perkins (.524, 7R, HR, 7RBI, SB); Cesar Hernandez (.474, 5R); Willians Astudillo (.471, HR, 4RBI); Angelo Mora (.385); Albert Cartwright (.353), Aaron Altherr (.313, 4R, SB)

Not Hot Hitters: Andrew Pullin (.056); Anthony Phillips (.077); Dylan Cozens (.130); Justin Parr (.133); Zach Green (.136); Ronny Cedeno(.143); Tyson Gillies (.154); Maikel Franco (.167); Samuel Hiciano (.167); JP Crawford (.174)

Hot Starters: Miguel Nunez (2 starts, 13IP 15H 3ER 0BB 10K); Tyler Viza (2 starts, 12IP 11H 4ER 1BB 8K);  Luis Paulino (5IP 3H 1ER 0BB 3K) Continue reading

Where have all the pitchers gone?

There has been a lot said about the lack of pitching in the Phillies system.  A lot of blame has been put at the feet of the development staff for failing to get major league players out of the talent in the system.  There have been other complaints about the prospects traded away or the prospects traded for as well.  The end result has been that I only had 8 pitchers in my Top 30 Phillies prospects and of those only 2 starting pitchers began the year healthy (Biddle and Gonzalez).

The factor that no one seems to be talking about is the composition of the Phillies drafts over the past 6 years.  With the “oldest” prospects in the system being from the 2008 draft class, it seemed like a good place to start.  So here are all the pitchers the Phillies drafted either for high money or are still in the system from the 2008 to 2013 drafts. Continue reading

Fun with PECOTA Comps

Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived.  I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point.  You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King.  But enough of that.

The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect.  They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things.  These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun)  These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.

1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon Continue reading

Hot or Not

Our first look around the organization at who is “hot” and who is “not” over the past week. Look for this article on Thursday or Friday morning each week.  For hitters to qualify, they must have 12AB’s over the last week.

A few quick points: Gotta like the way Crawford and Cozens started in Lakewood…Is it too early to be concerned about Franco, Joseph and Tocci, I think so….Severino Gonzalez with the best results of any starter in the organization last week without the best “stuff”…Dominant is an understatement for the week Kenny Giles had…Kyle Simon was unexpectedly awful in each of his outings for Lehigh Valley…Interesting that Luis Garcia has been anointed the closer in Lehigh Valley for now, with a very good week for the former barber/mover.

Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.500); Brock Stassi (.429); Peter Lavin (.417); Brian Pointer (.385); Willians Astudillo (.385); Carlos Alonso (.375, 4RS, 4RBI, SB); JP Crawford(.368, 4RS, HR, SB); Cameron Perkins (.333); Dylan Cozens (.321, 4RBI, 2SB)

Not Hot Hitters: ALbert Cartwright (.000, 0-13); Willie Carmona (.050); Justin Parr (.067); Leandro Castro (.091); Maikel Franco (.111); Steve Susdorf (.111); Tommy Joseph (.118); Carlos Tocci (.143); Matt Tolbert (.154); Zach Green (.160) Continue reading