All posts by Matt Winkelman

The Reading Mirage: Pitching Overview

Yesterday we took a look at the hitting trends as hitters progress through Reading on the way to AAA.  The goal today is to give a much shorter overview for pitching stats.  There are more gaps in this group of players, and it is further muddied by the combination of starters and reliever.  Additionally the group as a whole is fairly week due to trades and burnout before reaching AA.

For this study we followed Jon Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick, Trevor May, Vance Worley, Phillippe Aumont, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, J. A. Happ, Michael Stutes, B.J. Rosenberg, Tyler Cloyd, Austin Hyatt, Jesse Biddle, Carlos Carrasco, JC Ramirez, David Buchanan, Adam Morgan, and Joe Savery.  For the stats we are looking mostly at fielding independent statistics, so BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and FIP.  Continue reading

The Reading Mirage: Hitting Overview

Every year a prospect emerges in Reading and puts up huge numbers that excite Phillies fans.  Sometimes those players sustain their surprise, but more times that not, the player fades off to mediocrity.  For this study I took 18 players that played for Reading in the past 6 years.  Those players were Cameron Rupp, Darin Ruf, Derrick Mitchell, Leandro Castro, Cody Asche, Matt Rizzotti, Jim Murphy, Mike Costanzo, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Sebastian Valle, Maikel Franco, Tuffy Gosewisch, Michael Taylor, Steve Susdorf, and Domonic Brown.  All players were chosen for playing both Clearwater and Reading, and in all but two cases in Lehigh Valley.  The sample sizes across the levels are not equal and individual stats may not have stabilized enough to make individual declarations at this time.

In terms of stats, I started with the triple flash lines (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging) and their derivatives (OPS, ISO, BABIP).  Then I looked at defense independent statistics, strikeout percent, walk percent, and home runs per plate appearance.  Lastly in cases where batted ball data existed (seasons 2011 or later), that data has been included.  Additionally the age of each prospect was recorded.  In cases of multiple seasons at a level, I first looked for the larger sample size, if not, then the season preceding the promotion to Lehigh Valley.  In terms of aggregate numbers I am looking at pure unweighted averages of rate stats and percentages, this is an effort to weight each player equally. Continue reading

Weekend Spotlight: 4/19 Reading v Harrisburg

The goal is to each weekend profile the most interesting matchup and give you a preview of the Phillies prospects involved and a glimpse at the opposing players. 

In a weekend devoid of premium matchups, Saturday’s matchup in Reading is probably the most interesting.  The Fighins are off to a hot start with an 8-4 record to begin the season.  On Friday night Jesse Biddle will take the mound for Reading.

Pitching Matchup:

Taking the mound for Reading will be RHP Severino Gonzalez.  Gonzalez is coming off what might be his worst start over the with 5IP 6H 3ER 3BB 4Ks against Richmond on the 18th.  There is a lot of mixed opinion on Severino, and still a very limited data set, so every view is worth a lot.  On the mound Severino will bring a 4-5 pitch mix of average pitches and a fastball that will sit 88-91 and touch 92.  He normally will display plus command a good feel for pitching on the mound that helps the arsenal play up. Continue reading

Monday Roster Shuffle

Normally roster moves don’t make their own posts unless it is a big promotion, but today was a bunch of shuffling with impact.

Lehigh Valley:
Added: Sebastian Valle (REA), Justin De Fratus (PHI), Tyson Gillies (CLW), Brad Lincoln (PHI)
Lost: Mike Nesseth (REA), Cameron Rupp (DL), Andres Blanco (DL), Justin Friend (Released), Luis Garcia (PHI)

Added: Chad Carman (CLW), Mike Nesseth (LHV)
Lost: Aaron Altherr (CLW), Sebastian Valle (LHV)

Added: Aaron Altherr (REA – DL), Deivi Grullon (EST)
Lost: Chad Carman (REA), Tyson Gillies (LHV) Continue reading

Where have all the pitchers gone?

There has been a lot said about the lack of pitching in the Phillies system.  A lot of blame has been put at the feet of the development staff for failing to get major league players out of the talent in the system.  There have been other complaints about the prospects traded away or the prospects traded for as well.  The end result has been that I only had 8 pitchers in my Top 30 Phillies prospects and of those only 2 starting pitchers began the year healthy (Biddle and Gonzalez).

The factor that no one seems to be talking about is the composition of the Phillies drafts over the past 6 years.  With the “oldest” prospects in the system being from the 2008 draft class, it seemed like a good place to start.  So here are all the pitchers the Phillies drafted either for high money or are still in the system from the 2008 to 2013 drafts. Continue reading

Fun with PECOTA Comps

Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived.  I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point.  You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King.  But enough of that.

The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect.  They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things.  These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun)  These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.

1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon Continue reading

Minor League Ball Phillies Top 20

Yesterday John Sickels of Minor League Ball released his Phillies Top 20 prospects.  The list was created with the knowledge of preseason results so it does differ from other lists.  The full list can be found here.

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. J.P. Crawford
  3. Jesse Biddle
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Carlos Tocci
  6. Aaron Altherr
  7. Kelly Dugan
  8. Dylan Cozens
  9. Cord Sandberg
  10. Ken Giles
  11. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  12. Ethan Martin
  13. Cesar Hernandez
  14. Severino Gonzalez
  15. Zach Green
  16. Shane Watson
  17. Cameron Rupp
  18. Tommy Joseph
  19. Mario Hollands
  20. Luis Encarnacion

Continue reading

Submit Your Questions And Reports

So if you have been paying close attention to the site, you may have noticed some new links on the side bar.  One is for you to submit your mailbag questions.  I don’t know how often we will answer them, it depends on how many you ask, but the team here will do our best to provide you the best (not always most informative) answer to your questions.  The link to the question submission is here, you can also ask us via email or on Twitter.

The other link is for you to submit your own scouting reports for games you attend.  We are looking to build a data base of trends in stats and opens that aren’t captured by other sites.  The most simple measurement are pitcher velocity readings, but hitters you can give home to first times and pop times.  However there is plenty of room to add your opinion to the assessments.  You can find the link here.  You can also email us full game reports and we will work to fit them in as guest pieces among our regular contributors.

As always, check the pages at the top, I will be working on getting all of the player pages updated.  The draft page for 2014 already has some links and I will populating it with more reports, mocks, and draft boards as we start to kick off our draft coverage.

Season Predictions

Last year’s predictions went pretty well so I thought I would give it another try this year.  These predictions are based purely on opinion, and have no guarantee of coming true.

1. Both Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle do not exhaust their prospect eligibility.  Both are not called up until rosters expand.  Biddle puts up good numbers but is blocked in the major league level and left to make adjustments in AAA.

2.  Yoel Mecias comes back healthy and is a borderline Top 5 prospect in the system.  He is promoted to Clearwater after dominating Lakewood for a few starts.

3. Roman Quinn plays SS in Clearwater when he is back on the field, the Phillies begin experimenting with him at 2B after J.P. Crawford is promoted at the beginning of August. Continue reading