All posts by gregg

Open Discussion–Week of October 27th

This weeks open discussion thread….A couple of quick newsworthy items today:

–RP  BJ Rosenberg was outrighted off the 40 man roster by the Phils and can now test the free agent market.

–RP Nefi Ogando and CF Roman Quinn were both named to the Arizona Fall League All Star team

–I have spent considerable time this week searching inside myself trying to figure out how Jayson Nix has landed on a team playing in the World Series.  The rest of my time since yesterday has been spent wondering how the hell a receiver can get behind two defenders on a 3rd and long with less than two minutes left in a football game.  Sorry, small diversion.

Open Discussion–Week of October 20th

We will start the week off with an Arizona Fall League Update…then feel free to discuss as you please.

A good week for Roman Quinn who went 8-25 with 5 runs scored, 3 RBI’s and 3SB’s.  Two weeks into the AFL season, Quinn is hitting .250/.333.300 in 40 AB’s; with 3 RBI’s and 7 stolen bases.  C Logan Moore has seen limited action as most expected as had hit .143 (2-14) with a lone RBI.

On the hill we have a real mixed bag.  RP Nefi Ogando has been most impressive of the group.  In his 5 appearances, Ogando is 0-0 with a 2.70 and 2 saves.  He has thrown 6.2 innings and yielded 2 runs on five hits.  He has walked 2 and struck out an impressive 6, continuing to throw in the mid 90’s.  RP Colton Murray had a rough week this week, giving up 3 runs in just 1.2 innings spanning 3 games. Overall in the Fall League, Murray is now 0-2 with a 7.94ERA, over 5 games.  SP Adam Morgan did not look good in his start this week, going 1.2 innings and giving up 5 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits.  He threw 42 pitches, 26 for strikes.  RYan O’Sullivan’s production in the Fall League can only be described as brutal at this stage.  He had made 3 appearances and is 0-1 with a 19.06 ERA and has allowed 12 runs on 13 hits in his 5.2IP, striking out just one.  P Ethan Stewart did not pitch at all last week after 2 appearances the first week of the season in which he gave up just a run in 3.1IP. He did however walk five and struck out 6.

Discuss.

Phillies Release 9 Minor Leaguers

The Phillies have begun their post season minor league cleanup by releasing 9 players, none of whom are a big surprise.  The following players have been released: P Mark Meadors, P Gregorio Santos, P Jeb Stefan, P Francibal Alejo, 2B Olvy Marte, 2B Robinson Torres, 3B Trey WIlliams, OF Nick Ferdinand and INF Anthony Phillips.

Trey Williams was the name from the list that the Phils probably believed had the most potential as their 7th round draft choice in 2013.  Williams hits .197 in the Gulf Coast League, spanning two seasons.  Jeb STefan was the Phils 22nd round pick in 2012 and showed some promise in ’12 and ’13 in Williamsport and Lakewood before an awful year this year in Clearwater.

Quick additional note that the Phils have outrighted SS Andres Blanco off of their 40 man roster.

General Discussion–Week Of Oct 13th

First and foremost: Happy Columbus Day!

News and Notes over the last week:

–Rafael Chaves has been hired as the Phillies Minor League pitching coordinator .  Chaves had been working in the Dodgers organization as a special assistant for player personnel.  Carlos Arroyo who had been the minor league pitching coordinator in 2014 will return to his previous duties as a minor league roving pitching instructor

–Johnny Almarez was named as the Phillies new Scouting Director.  Almarez most recently was employed by the Braves where he was Directing of International Scouting and Operatins for the last five years and comes with an impressive pedigree of recognized and signed talent.

–INF Reid Brignac, P Jeff Manship and P Jeremy Horst all elected minor league free agency.

–OF Tony Gwynn and P Sean O’Sullivan were both outrighted off the 40 man roster and are now free agents.

–The Arizona Fall League has begun with mixed results for Phillies prospects.  OF Roman Quinn has had a rough beginning going 2 for his first 15 (.133) with 3RS and 3SB.  Logan Moore has seen action in 2 games this week and went 1-6(.167).  On the hill, Nefi Ogando has been impressive, appearing in three games in relief and throwing 4 innings, yielding just 1 run on 3 hits.  He walked 1 and struck out 3 while earning a save.  Adam Morgan made his AFL debut by throwing a perfect inning, while Ethan Stewart’s control problems have now translated to the AFL.  He made 2 appearances and gave up just 1 run on 1 hit in 3.1IP, however walked 5 and struck out an impressive 6 hitters. The dark side of the Phils AFL performance last week clearly went to Ryan O’Sullivan who gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 2.1 innings of work.

Discuss.

Three Elect Minor League Free Agency

Transactions begin to roll in on the minor league side as the off season gets going as three players who at some point saw time with the Phillies have elected minor league free agency.  Add INF Reid Brignac, P Jeff Manship and P Jeremy Horst to the list of former Phillies have they hit the free agent market.  Very little concern about losing any of the three with plenty of similar players on the minor league free agent market to replace them.

General Discussion–Week of October 6th

So, first off I am no Brad.  There is no other Brad.  But if anyone wants to attempt to be Brad, feel free to email me at phuturephillies1@yahoo.com.  My thanks to Brad who provided keen insight and a good deal of laughter for all of us with his laconic quips and remarks daily…

That said, a few news items.  Opening day in the AFL season is Tuesday.  Stay tuned for updates as anything notable occurs. 

Aaron Brown was named the #18 prospect in the New York Penn League.

JP Crawford was named the #2 prospect in the South Atlantic League, although he hadnt played there since June.

Adam Morgan, returning after missing all of 2014 injured, will pitch in the AFL.  It will be interesting to see how he is used and what kind of stuff he will bring to the table in Arizona.

Discuss.

Report Card, Bullpen, Clearwater and Lakewood

Report card for relievers in CLearwater and Lakewood.  The final report card segment will cover Williamsport and GCL.

Clearwater

Aaron Baker, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 19 games; 3-2 with a 4.89ERA between GCL, Lakewood and CLearwater; 2 saves; 35IP 45H 6BB 38K; 1HR allowed; .306 opp avg; 1.46 WHIP; 1.19 GO/AO; Baker was picked up mid season and gave Clearwater innings.  Grade: C; 2015: Another organization

Cody Forsythe, 24, Phils 25th round pick in 2013; 45 games between Lakewood and Clearwater; 5-5 with a 2.35ERA; 12 saves; 65IP 55H 17BB 72K; 6HR allowed; .223 opp avg; 1.11 WHIP; 0.78 GO/AO; 2.4BB/10.0K per 9; For Clearwater: 22 games; 2-3 with a 2.27ERA; .208 opp avg; 1.07 WHIP.  Forsythe was excellent for Lakewood and pitched even better for CLearwater.  He is a guy whose value is limited as a reliever but on the rise nonetheless.  Grade: A; 2015: Reading

Perci Garner, 25, Phils 2nd round pick in 2010; 26 games (16 starts) between Reading and Clearwater; 4-5 with a 4.61ERA; 93.2IP 88H 77BB 75K; 3 HR allowed; .254 opp avg; 1.76 WHIP; 1.74 GO/AO; 7.4BB/7.2K per 9; Garner started the season in the Reading rotation, lost his spot, was very poor in the Reading bullpen, sent to Clearwater and not much better there.  He simply can’t throw strikes.  and hasn’t been able to throw strikes throughout his minor league career. Grade: D-; 2015: I would be fine seeing Garner released however I suspect he has one more shot, probably in the Reading bullpen Continue reading

Report Card, Bullpen, Lehigh Valley and Reading

The final report card for the Lehigh Valley and Reading bullpen.  Next up is CLearwater and Lakewood. 

Lehigh Valley

Phillippe Aumont, 25, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; 35 games, 3-3 with a 3.93ERA; 55IP 48H 39BB 65K; .240 opp avg; 1.58 WHIP; 1.30 GO/AO; 6.4BB/10.6K per 9; .226 vs. LHH; .252 vs. RHH; .250 opp avg over last month; Aumont received multiple shots to pitch for the Phils this year and was beyond awful during each opportunity.  His minor league season was marred by continued inconsistency, lack of control, and missed time due to injury.  The Phillies failing to call Aumont up in September pretty much says it all at this stage.  Without options next year, I expect him to be in another organization.  Grade: D

Jeremy Horst, 29, Acquired from Cincinnati in 2012; 45 games; 4-2 with a 3.98ERA; 63.1IP 54H 31BB 57K; 4HR allowed; .234 opp avg; 1.34 WHIP; 0.51 GO/AO; .236 vs. LHH; .232 vs. RHH; .169 opp avg over last 30 days; 1.08 ERA in 9 appearances since 8/1.  Horst was simply bad for the first part of the season, was designated for assignment off the 40 man and came back to pitch very well over the seasons last month or two.  With the Phils now having some depth from the left side in the bullpen and Horst being a free agent, I would expect him elsewhere come 2015.  Grade: C

Tyler Knigge, 25, Phils 12th round pick in 2010; 45 appearances, 7-3 with a 3.43ERA between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 3 saves; 76IP 71H 22BB 47K; 2.6BB/5.6K per 9; .248 opp avg; 1.22 WHIP; 1.87 GO/AO; For Lehigh Valley: 27 games, 4-3 with a 4.61ERA; .270 opp. avg; 1.37 WHIP.  Knigge was lights out for Reading and was called up to Lehigh Valley mid-season where he struggled at times with the transition.  Still, he showed signs of promise, showing very good command. Grade: B-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Ethan Martin, 25, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 29 games, 2-1 with a 4.15ERA; 47.2IP 46H 21BB 45K; 2HR allowed; .256 opp avg; 1.41 WHIP; 1.38 GO AO; 4.0BB/8.5K per 9; .221 vs. LHH; .282 vs. RHH; .270 opp avg over last 30 days.  All in all a disappointing year for Martin who was shut down early in Spring Training with arm issues and was ineffective for a period of time upon his return.  Overall, the numbers are mediocre.  There is talent there.  It is a matter of whether it can be properly channeled.  Grade: C-; 2015: Lehigh Valley with a call up to Philly at some point

Hector Neris, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2010;48 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 6-3 with a 3.61ERA and 2 saves; 77.1IP 62H 29BB 70K; 8HR allowed; .219 opp avg; 1.18 WHIP; 0.81 GO/AO; 3.4BB/8.1K per 9; .264 vs. LHH; .203 vs. RHH. Neris had a very good year, getting called up for his major league debut (sent back down after one scoreless appearance) and putting himself on the radar screen as a true candidate for the future of the Phillies bullpen.  Too many home runs balls, but he has a couple of pitches that are near major league ready.  Grade: B+; 2015: Lehigh Valley

BJ Rosenberg, 29, Phils 13th round pick in 2008; 18 games, 2-1 with a 6.63ERA; 19IP 24H 12BB 17K; 2 HR allowed; .312 opp avg; 1.89 WHIP; 0.90 GO/AO; 5.7BB/8.1K per 9; Just an awful year for Rosenberg who was brutal for the both the Phils and ‘Pigs and had multiple stints on the DL.  Without options, he will come into Sprint Training in “make it or break it” mode.  With the other options the Phils now have, I suspect Rosenberg lands elsewhere in 2015, if not over the winter.  Grade: D-

Cesar Jiminez, 29, Re-Signed as a free agent in 2014; 38 games (2 starts); 3-2 with a 1.45ERA; 3 saves; 49.2IP 34H 15BB 46K; 0 HR allowed; 2.7BB/8.3K per 9; .193 opp avg; 0.99 WHIP; 0.87 GO/AO; .167 vs. LHH; .282 vs. RHH.  Jiminez dominated the International League all season with numbers that were off the charts.  Good control and didnt allow a homerun ball in 50 innings.  His command was not as good in his multiple trips to the majors but Jiminez currently has a ERA below 2 and an opp avg below .250 for the Phils.  Jiminez has no options and he will need to be re-signed over the off season if the Phils want him back.  They could do alot worse than Jiminez as an 11th or 12th man in their bullpen.  Grade: A

Luis Garcia, 27, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 39 games; 2-1 with an 0.96ERA; 22 saves; 46.2IP 35H 16BB 52K; 0HR allowed; .205 opp avg; 1.09 WHIP; 1.43 GO/AO; 3.1BB/10.0K per 9; .150 with RISP; Garcia was totally lights out for Lehigh Valley; was an IL All Star and among the league leaders in saves, even with multiple major league stints.  His first two short call ups to Philly were miserable this year, but since September 1st, Garcia has a 2.08ERA for the Phils.  Grade: A-; 2015: Garcia has an option remaining, so he certainly will be back with the organization bouncing between Lehigh Valley and Philly.

Miguel Gonzalez, 28, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 31 games (3 starts) between Clearwater, Reading and Lehigh Valley; 0-4 with a 3.11ERA; 3 saves; 46.1IP 40H 26BB 54K; .231 opp avg; 1.42 WHIP; 0.63 GO/AO; 5.1BB/10.5K per 9; For Lehigh Valley: 12 games, 0-0 with a 1.62ERA; 2 saves; 16.2IP 10H 10BB 19K; .172 opp avg; Gonzalez entered the season with very high expectations, was immediately injured and then struggled upon his return moving from the starting rotation to the bullpen.  He flourished in both the Reading and Lehigh Valley bullpens showing major league “stuff”, albeit with command issues.  He was called up on 9/1 and has struggled for the Phils in his 5 outings thru 9/25 (8.31 ERA).  Grade: C, Gonzalez pretty much ended up where I expected him to be at the end of 2014, but took a very different route than I expected to get there; 2015: I would be very surprised if he is not on the 25 man roster, making $4M again in 2015.

Reading

Matt Hoffman, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 23 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 0-1 with a 3.71ERA; 26.2IP 26H 10BB 31K; 1.36 WHIP; .255 opp avg; 0.75 GO/AO; Hoffman was signed as a free agent mid season and did a good job in the role that was given to him.  Grade: B-; 2015: Most likely elsewhere

Colton Murray, 24, Phils 13th round pick in 2011; 47 games; 3-7 with a 2.23ERA; 8 saves; 76.2IP 55H 30BB 77K; 5HR allowed; 3.5BB/9.1K per 9; .201 opp avg; 1.11 WHIP; 0.90 GO/AO; FOr Reading: 36 games; 1-5 with a 2.29ERA; .188 opp avg; 1.03 WHIP.  Murray is probably the reliever whose stock has risen the most throughout the Phils minor leagues.  He was outstanding this year, progressing from CLearwater to Reading and dominating AA hitters.  Home run balls are a bit of a problem, but a very good year overall for Murray who will need to be added to the 40 man roster.  Grade: A-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Mike Nesseth, 26, Phils 17th round pick in 2010; 42 games (9 starts) between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 2-7 with a 5.60ERA; 1 save; 88.1IP 112H 27BB 64K; 11HR allowed; 2.8BB/6.5K per 9; .310 opp avg; 1.57 WHIP; 1.38 GO/AO; 18 games since July 1: 1-1 with a 2.83ERA; Nesseth was simply as bad as you can be for the first three months of the season and then came around towards years end to show some of the promise that was there in 2013.  I had very big expectations for Nesseth entering 2014 and the grade encompasses the fact that I expected a major league debut.  Grade: D-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Neifi Ogando, 25, Acquired from Boston in 2013; 48 games; 5-1 with a 6.27ERA; 7 saves; 56IP 64H 28BB 57K; 6HR allowed; .291 opp avg; 1.64 WHIP; 1.68 GO/AO; 4.5BB/9.1K per 9; .300 vs. LHH; .288 vs. RHH; .211 opp avg over last  month; Post All STar Game: 3-0 with a 3.86ERA in 16 games; Ogando was extremely inconsistent in the first half of the season, often stuggling with his control.  He did a better job in the second half but needs to show he can do it consistently before a move up.  He has very good stuff, just needs to consistently know where to throw it.  Grade: D+; 2015: Reading

Seth Rosin, 25, Acquired from Giants in 2012; 43 games between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 3-5 with a 3.86ERA; 3 saves; 58.1IP 64H 19BB 44K; 6HR allowed; .286 opp avg; 1.42 WHIP; 0.85 GO/AO; Rosin had a whirlwind year during which he made his major league debut for the Dodgers, then pitched for the Rangers in the majors, before he was returned to the Phillies via Rule 5 return.  When he returned he was simply awful for Lehigh Valley, before turning it around in Reading to have a very consistent second half of the season.  I havent lost faith that Rosin could be a help in a major league bullpen, however, the upside appears to be as a 11th ot 12th man in the bullpen, as a middle reliever.  Grade: C-; 2015: Lehigh Valley

Kyle Simon, 24, Acquired from Baltimore in 2012; 46 games; 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA between Lehigh Valley and Reading; 3 saves; 75.2IP 77H 21BB 41K; 3HR allowed; .271 opp avg; 1.30 WHIP; 2.47 GO/AO; 2.5BB/4.9K per 9; .254 opp avg over last month; For Lehigh Valley: 10 games; 0-2 with a 9.42ERA; .317 opp. avg; 10 BB in 14.1IP; Simon started the year with the ‘Pigs and was beyond brutal before being sent back to AA.  For Reading, Simon got his mojo back, pitching well.  The Phils will need to make a 40 man roster decision with Simon.  I suspect he is left unprotected and goes untaken.  Grade: D+; 2015: Lehigh Valley 

Austin Wright, 25, Phils 8th round pick in 2011; 32 games; 2-4 with a 5.06ERA; 48IP 41H 44BB 38K; 5HR allowed; .225 opp avg; 1.77 GO/AO; 0.72 GO/AO; 8.3BB/7.1K per 9; .177 vs. LHP; .250 vs. RHP; .250 opp avg over last month; .222 opp avg with RISP; All you need to do is look at the walk rate to judge Wright’s success (lack thereof) this year.  Simply awful.  Combine that with missing significant time injured and you have a very bad year. That said, he has talent.  Look at opponents batting average.  He is Rule 5 eligible, and I actually think the Phils will protect him simply because of the .177 LHH opp. avg. Grade: D-; 2015: Reading until he proves he knows where the strike zone is.

Report Card, Starting Pitching, Williamsport and GCL

Report card for starters in WIlliamsport and the GCL, albeit with limited sample sizes. Next up will be the bullpen in Lehigh Valley and Reading.

Williamsport

Alejandro Artega, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 22 starts between Lakewood and WIlliamsport; 4-14 with a 6.13ERA; 111.2IP 160H 20BB 69H 11HR allowed; .341 opp avg; 1.61 WHIP; 1.09 GO/AO; 1.6BB/5.6K per 9; .289 opp avg over last month; Opponents hit Arteaga at nearly a .400 clip in his 9 Lakewood starts before being sent to Williamsport.  After a successful 2013, this year was a step backwards.  Grade: D; 2015: WIlliamsport

Mitch Guellar, 20, Phils Compensation Round Pick in 2012; 13 starts; 5-5 with a 4.69ERA; 63.1IP 65H 29BB 31K; .275 opp avg; 1.48 WHIP; 0.73 GO/AO; 4.0bb/4.4K per 9; .259 vs. LHH; .289 vs. RHH; .310 opp avg over last month; After a very good first half where Guellar was named a NYPL All Star, he had a difficult second half where many of the same issues he went through in 2013 re-appeared.  Guellar was just 1-3 with a 7.25ERA in 5 August starts.  Grade: C-; 2015: He may be back for a third season in Williamsport.

Brandon Leibrandt, 21, Phils 6th round pick in 2014; 12 games(10 starts) between GCL and WIlliamsport; 3-5 with a 2.82ERA; 60.2IP 49H 10BB 67K; .227 opp avg; 0.97 WHIP; 0.61 GO/AO; 1.5BB/9.9K per 9; For Williamsport: 7 starts, 2-3 with a 2.20ERA; .203 opp avg and 0.90 WHIP; Leibrandt was excellent generally overpowering hitters in the NYPL and GCL.  Excellent control and knows how to pitch.  Grade: A; 2015: Clearwater rotation Continue reading