97 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-21-2014 – Ten Days To Deal Edition

    1. I don’t think the Phillies want to trade any members of the old core. They’ll try to trade Paps, Burnett (although horrendously expensive), Byrd, Kendrick, perhaps Bastardo and call it a day. Except for Byrd and Bastardo, that’s not a group likely to bring much interest, unless they eat a ton of salary.

      1. At this point, how much does it matter for the most part?

        Hamels – really the one guy who they should at least put on the market and they apparently are not. So I’d call this a mistake, even though “three top prospects in return” is a fantasy. Though a couple months ago even you didn’t want to trade him

        Lee – waiting for him to rebuild his value is the right call – pretty sure you have agreed on this in the past.

        Utley – yeah, I know you think he would agree to a trade to certain teams, or maybe one certain team. Still hard to fault Amaro on this one, given Utley’s desires and the fact that he is maybe the one guy on the roster who some fans really do come out to see.

        Everyone else – untradable and/or lacking in trade value. Possible exception for Ruiz here, though I wouldnt rule out a deal for him if Baltimore is willing to send a B prospect, as I suggested below.

    2. Cliff Lee would probably be at his most valuable at the next trade deadline if he pitches like a #2-3 next year.

  1. Morosi reported the Tigers were scouting Bastardo and Papelbon. Detroit’s bullpen is a mess, so the Phils might be able to package them together to improve the return or decrease the amount of $$ they would have to eat.

  2. What would you guys want for Lee? Let’s say that the following are teams who would be interested, teams which need pitching and can afford his salary: Yankees, Seattle, Baltimore, Blue Jays, Dodgers. I’m going to stop at 5 . . . Would the following from each be enough for you in a Lee trade?

    Yankees: Lee for Severino. Lee for Judge. Add in another prospect outside of their top 10.

    Seattle: Lee for Paxton/Franklin. Lee for Guerrero/Franklin.

    Baltimore: Lee for Gausman.

    Blue Jays: Lee for Norris/Another outside of their top 10.

    Dodgers: Lee for Z. Lee/another outside of their top 10.

    At this point I’d pull the trigger on any if those deals esp if we aren’t chipping in money. I know some of those don’t look like we are getting A TON but Lee isn’t going to fetch a ton with his remaining contract and recent elbow issue.

  3. I would be happy with Lee to the Yankees for Judge and maybe a Manny Banuelos. Severino and Sanchez would seem to be out of reach..
    What a shame….it seems in the past, Ruben has failed to strike when the iron is hot or he jumps the gun when it doesn’t need to be.
    Timing can be a very important thing.

  4. Romus exactly right. RAJ is an idiot in many ways, and that is just another. He never trades guys at their peak value. He was stubborn in trading Papelbon last year when some teams may have given legitimate prospects. He wouldnt trade Utley last season when an Utley for Joc Pederson trade was actually possible, now LAD wouldn’t do it. He is just the worst in every single way possible.

    Another thing is he went on the record as saying Cole will not be traded. What an idiot. Why would you say that? At least dont say anything and dont plan on trading him, but dont come out and say it so definitively like that. I mean what if a team called and wanted to blow you away with an offer?

    Get this boob out of the front office.

    1. Amaro is bad enough without just making stuff up. Papelbon was worth less last year than this year – couldn’t have given him away. The Utley situation is more unknowable, but the only “evidence” that we could have gotten Peterson for him last year was wishful thinking on these forums (and perhaps wild speculation by some “journalists”). I am extremely doubtful that it is true. More to the point, Utley may well have more trade value this year than last. Not that he is going anywhere. The notion that he doesn’t REALLY mean it when he repeatedly says he will not agree to a trade is a form of … magical thinking.

      1. Though the one team that could use Utley is in town now, and Utley’s off-season residence is in the Bay area….so a match is there if all parties are willing.
        My guess Sabean would welcome Mr Utley to the giants org, Utley would shrug and say ‘why not’, but Rube would be the hesitant one of the three parties….partially due to fear of the unknown..
        Like I have said before ad nauseum….he is risk adverse and rather play it safe sitting on the fence.

        1. Of course you’re ignoring the huge fact that Utley has said he doesn’t want to be traded. But hey 72.

          1. I think when push comes to shove he approves a trade to SF. Utley is a real baseball guy. He wants to win. I doubt he really looks forward to finishing out this season in Philly and then embarking on another last-place voyage next season. He is too competitive to adopt the ‘I’ll just collect my paycheck in familiar surrounding with my buds’ approach.

        2. I would not say that RAJ is risk adverse as much as management is content with mediocrity.

          The point of dumping guys, lets face it nobody outside of Hamels will draw a top 20 prospect, is that the team gets much needed salary flexibility.

          When you have a $177.7 million dollar payroll and staring at 90+ wins and the 6th worst record in baseball (3 GB from the worst) changes need to be made.

          The team has 127.9 million committed to 9 guys next year.

          While you may not get much better you will gain flexibility to make deals and sign free agents to slot into the lineup as guys like Franco, Asche, and others develop.

      2. Let’s add there is no way in hell Ruben has the autonomy to trade guys like Utley and Hamels. And seriously if you think anything of value was on the table for Papelbon last year you are out of your mind.

        Use your coconut dude you present yourself as a bigger idiot to make statements based on no zip 0 knowledge of the true facts as they were last year.

  5. When does Houston start competing? They have a 40 man roster issue coming this year. A lot of prospects that have to be protected and no spots. If the ‘Stros think they can compete in the next year, they may take someone with years left on their contract. Get something for their guys instead of only getting $50K. HA Ha Ha…. The Astros only take our prospects. They don’t give any back. Wait a minute, the Phils will have the opportunity to take Houston prospects in the Rule 5 draft for only $50K. Let’s wait.

    1. Bellman…ironically Dom Santana was signed in 2009, so does he qualify for Rule 5 in 2015? Nevertheless, I cannot see them leaving him off their 40.

  6. Yeah after what I saw last night Lee isn’t going any where. No sense in selling when his stock is down. Even if his next start is good I don’t see interested teams willing to pay market value for him.

    Also not much sense in speculating on trades with the Yankees. I highly expect they are on his no trade list but let’s say he approved then Lee for Judge, or Lee for Severino absolutely, Lee for Clarkin, Lee for Sanchez and De Paula would be deals that I would do and include no more than a third of the remaining $ owed Cliff.

    1. After last night, subtract Lee from the trade piece that brings something worthwhile group. maybe in August after 3 or 4 more starts. That leaves Utley and Hamels, neither of whom will be traded. So, our take for the future will be along the lines of Lindblom/Martin, Joseph/Rosin, in other words, nothing that will help.

  7. The Yankees actually would be smart to do nothing. Nothing they can add now will make them better than the A’s. Even if they packaged all they had to the Rays for Price they have no real depth behind him with Tanaka out for the season.

    They can stand pat and do what they always do spend on Scherzer, Shields and Lester. We all know how they love to take Red Sox away from the Red Sox.

    Now Romus is onto something above to suggest the Giants maybe interested in Chase and if Chase is interested in them maybe something gets done. Sabean has a penchant for veteran players with make up. Take Susac, Blach maybe even a Blackburn/Williamson package in return eat what you have to in salary.

  8. History shows that RAJ is much better at buying than at selling. So I am not expecting much in the way of new players that will reinvigorate our farm system. Since that is the case, the fewer deals RAJ makes, the better.

    1. Anyone with a fat wallet can buy. It takes a salesman negotiator to sell. As a buyer, RAJ gets what he wants, but frequently overpays. Look at the details of the horrific deal with Burnett and how much RAJ back-loaded it.

      1. Where are these details? BR says $15 Million this year and a Mutual option for $15 Mil next year which I thought meant both club and player must agree to 2015 and if not it’s a $1 Million dollar buyout.

        1. From Cot’s

          A.J. Burnett rhp
          2 years/$22.5M (2014-15)

          2 years/$22.5M (2014-15)
          signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 2/16/14
          $7.5M signing bonus ($1M on 12/15/14, $2.75M on 1/15/15, $3.75M on 6/30/15)
          14:$7.5M, 15:$15M mutual option ($1M buyout) or $7.5M player option
          buyout paid if Burnett has fewer than 30 starts in 2014 & one side declines
          2015 player option increases to $8.5M with 24 GS in 2014, $10M with 27 GS, $11.75M with 30 GS, $12.75M with 32 GS
          annual performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 24, 27 GS. $0.75M for 30 GS
          limited no-trade protection

          1. OK this is great detail but isn’t this just a convoluted way of saying what I just said above $16 Million guaranteed and if both sides agree to exercise their options 2/$30.

            1. Some of AJ’s 2016 is vesting options, not team/player. Unless he gets hurt, he’s going to guarantee himself a decent 2016 salary without the team agreeing to it.

  9. Chase Headley to the Yankees for Solarte and De Paula and the Yankees get the Padres to kick in $1 Million. Not a bad deal for the Pads. I like Solarte a little bit and love De Paula’s arm.

    1. Think it can bode well for a Lee deal with the Yankees. They are doing everything they can, in that strangely mediocre division this year, to get into the playoffs especially in Jeter’s last year.
      Jays are tailing off, Rays are hot, Sox have won 5/6 in a row, O’s are hanging on.
      Rube needs to play his cards with Cashman.

    2. I am sorry, but that is nothing for Headley. Solarte is a 27 yr old utility guy, and the P is mediocre, at best. This is exactly what the Phils should not do. Yanks take a chance on a guy who hit 31 HR a yr and a half ago, and gave up nothing that will ever help the Padres

      1. Though DePaula has a pretty good K rate in the minors, comm and cont is average to slightly below average however.

  10. I Cant believe headley gets you anything. he is really gone bad. another untouchable on this site two years ago.

  11. Cliff can be traded to any of these 9 teams without his consent: Braves, Indians, Astros, Marlins, Twins, Mets, Padres, Rays, and Nationals.

    Anyone else see the brilliance in this?

  12. I Really need to understand the contracts of the Phillies. It seems and maybe others do it, but not only has amaro given bad money deals. he also backed himself in corner with no trades, and buyouts. I Just wonder is this a common practice to sign guys. or is it a amaro over paid/

    1. Most top tier Free Agents will get some form of a limited no trade clause that the Player can change from season to season…

  13. A.J can be traded to 9 teams without consent: Orioles, Red Sox, Reds, Royals, Mets, Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals and Nationals.

  14. History suggests that RAJ is much better at buying than at selling. Therefore, I do not expect to see much improvement in the farm system or the major league club as a result of any deals he makes. In fact, it is likely that the fewer trades he makes in this situation, the better for the Phillies in the long run. .

    1. There seems to be a consensus view on this site that the Pence deal was a major overpayment. It may turn out that way, but as of now I don’t see it. Jonathan Singleton is batting .182 this season with 62 Ks in 167 plate appearances. His OPS is .614. Domingo Santana has struck out 11 times in 13 plate appearances and has no hits. Jared Cosart looks like a very average pitcher this season with a 4.23 ERA and a K rate of 5.8 per 9 innings. Josh Zeid is striking people out but has allowed 26 hits in 19.1 innings and has an ERA of 5.59. So where are the great players that we lost in the Pence deal? They haven’t appeared yet and it could be that they never will.

      1. The Oswalt deal also bears reexamination. The Phillies gave up Jonathan Villar who has a .200 BA and a .255 OBP this season, Anthony Gose who has a .236 BA an a .613 OPS this season and has only stolen 5 bases, while being caught three times (he used to be a great base stealer), and J.A. Happ who is pitching to a 4.91 ERA and has allowed 86 hits in 77 innings, no better than average, plus he has been injured quite a bit. None of these players has turned out to be an above average major leaguer, so where is the overpayment?

        1. So basically you gave up three players…one of which was already a starting pitcher in the majors, to get Roy Oswalt for 12 good starts in the second half of his first year in Philly, since his second year was a disaster.
          Villar and Gose still have the potential to become serviceable major league players.

          1. If a GM has a chance to trade average or below average players for an above average player, I think he should do it. He can always acquire more mediocre players to replace the ones that he traded. Therefore, I cannot find fault with the Oswalt deal although it did not work out as well as one would have hoped.

      2. You might be right. cause prospects are just that prospect. But to come on here and list two guys like Singleton and Santana. who are so young and getting there first shot. is totally too early imo. to judge if we didn’t overpay. Wait three more years cause both these guys are really young. and are already in majors.

        1. My point was not that S and S will never be any good. My point was that, although it may appear that the Phillies overpaid for Pence based on potential, based on actual performance so far, it is not the case.

    2. I’m better at basketball than volleyball, but that doesn’t mean I’m good at either of them.

      1. Romus I wasn’t talking about trades. I meant about the contracts he has given out to guys like Byrd. paplebon Burnett. and others. which not only limits where they go, but the extra money, especially for older guys its nuts imo. He really overpaid guys.

        1. I think Oswalt deal was fine. Byrd signing was fine. Papelbon total money was nuts and jumping out a week before the rule change and thus losing a #1 pick was so crazy that I suspect the PHillies needed the first round bonus $ to cover part of Papelbon’s salary. The Burnett deal was way, way too expensive and too back-loaded to make fiscal sense. I also think the Ruiz $/years was an overpay.

          1. The Phillies always seem to give an extra year or a no-trade or something extra in contract dealings when it seems these extras don’t seem necessary. Maybe the organization needs to add a negotiation expert to the mix. Sometimes it seems the Phillies are bidding against themselves in these situations.

            1. Tommy Hu….’.The Phillies always seem to give an extra year or a no-trade or something extra in contract dealings when it seems these extras don’t seem necessary.’….bingo….thats why i say former-MLB players make for below aveage GMs, except for of course eveyone’s fav Billy ‘Brad Pitt’ Beane…who had to be convinced to go the analytical/metric route.

          2. Only a moron would thumb down the truth Allentown, and you said the facts . so true, Ruiz still stumps me. thirty five years old and we had rupp ready . why go three years for him. I have read a lot of the signing are Montgomery’s fault. WHY IS MANSHIP ON THIS TEAM. I am stupid pls explain it to me.

          3. Allentown,

            We agree on an awful lot, and I mostly get where you’re coming from even when we differ. But I don’t get your dislike of the Ruiz deal. Yeah, by year 3 it probably won’t look so good – but you can say that about the tail end of virtually every FA deal. If anything, he’s a bargain at 8.5 million per this year and maybe even this year. It doesn’t even have a vesting year, nor is it backloaded.

            And what else were they going to do with the money? On the open market, that’s what you pay for a platoon guy or marginal regular (the fact that Ruiz is better than that is why it is a relative bargain). And who was going to catch this year and next?

            Incidently, only marginally relevant to your comment, and not an original thought by any means, but Ruiz to Baltimore makes a lot of sense if we can get a decent prospect.

            1. Larry you sound just like David Montgomery. He just cant let go of older players from 08 and you sound the same. I thought before this season that rupp should get a chance he is younger and cheaper. and ruiz is a fading player. maybe on a one year deal but three at 8 million is stupid.

            2. I think the problem with the Ruiz deal was the third year. The Phillies management overvalues their players and then pay more for them when not necessary. Two years for Ruiz would have been enough, he’s not so good that they should cave into his demands in fear of losing him. Let him walk.

      2. Pence posted a 134 OPS+ last year and currently at 139. If anything the mistake was not keeping Pence and selling low on him. Cosart, Singleton, and Santana have a lot to prove.

    1. I would like to know who is a Headley type that we could trade Brown for, other than Ackley. That is a risk worth taking. Mayberry down, Ruf up, now he can platoon at 1B, as we prepare for 2015.

      1. Does Jesus Montero do it for you?
        There just are not many ‘attractive-never live up to the hype’ players available under those circumstances..

    1. I think Bastardo will go and that might be it. I am not big on trading Byrd because I like the way he plays and we are a year away from having a replacement (Dugan). Also I hope they play Ruf everyday.

  15. Seriously, the people who run the Phillies make the same dumb mistakes over and over and over again. The team is always loyal to its older players to a fault and the team always jeopardizes its future when it gets close to the end of a good era by trading away young talent and taking on salary in a misguided effort to extend the elusive window of opportunity. Of course, this last gasp effort is rarely enough to sustain the failing team and the depletion of talent causes the team to tank in short order. This has been going on for more than 30 years with the Phillies. I am sick of it.

    The team has made the fans of Philadelphia, who really don’t seem to know any better, believe that after you win a championship, the team ultimately has to stink and go through a complete, from-the-ground-up, rebuilding process (hence the constant panic of the fans over “windows of opportunity” for a good baseball team). That is so stupid – great organizations don’t have that problem. They may have a down year or two, but they are ready with a new group of young players and creative solutions. Fans, don’t accept this nonsense. Cardinals fans don’t. Yankees fans don’t. Red Sox fans don’t. You deserve better. The Phillies have too much fan support and too big of TV contract to put us through this and teams with far, far fewer resources have solved these problems – there’s no reason our team cannot as wel. But to do so, they need to pull their heads out of the sand and embrace, not deny, the realities of the 21st century.

    Ugh!!!!!!!!!!

    1. And my views of things sure aren’t helped by the fact that whenever I go to a Phillies game, they inevitably lose. I don’t mean they usually lose or it just feels like they always lose, I mean, they lose about 85% of the games I attend. That’s not an exaggeration and it’s not a small sample size. I’ve probably been to 50 games over the last 3 years and I’m lucky if they’ve won 6 or 7 of them. I’m serious.

      1. You have been to 50 games over the last three years and they have only won maybe 6 or 7? Wow.
        Not trying to be superstitious, but did you ever think about changing your seats.

        1. I have! Actually, I am seriously considering laying bets against the team on the days I go so that I can at least hedge my unhappiness.

          1. Come up to the HoF…..when they start to lose, then go up to the bar…..the barmaids are pretty

      2. The Phillies are a bad home team. We are now 100 games into the season. The Phillies have won 48% of their road games but only 38% of their home games.

          1. No, 48% win record on the road really isn’t all that bad. If they had a normal home advantage they still wouldn’t be in contention, but they’d be an above .500 team.

    2. ‘Creative solutions’…you hit the nail on the head…that is what Ruben lacks in aptitude.
      .

    3. To understand the Phillies you have to understand the mindset of Montgomery. His only job has been with the Phillies for almost 40 years and for a good portion of that time the team has been mired in mediocrity.

      He accepts it thinking that the occasional good run is more luck than anything else and that fans will come and pay to see the team play, good or bad, because they have superstars that sell tickets.

      What he fails to realize is that the cost of the game has become so exorbitant relative to 10 or 20 years ago that it makes sense to sit home and watch a game rather than go to the stadium. People do not want to spend upwards of $100 to see a bad team play after you factor in the cost of a ticket, parking, food, and drinks.

      1. Giles and Monty don’t have a formula for building a winning baseball team, but they think they have a formula for selling tickets. They believe that Phillies fans expect the team to lose most of the time, so they cling obsessively to the nostalgia of anything associated with a WS team. Management believes that fans have a deep-seated resentment of being dissed by stars who left Philly and want more than anything else for management to pay whatever it takes to keep the core of our WS teams in Philly until they retire. They think that this is the only way that the fans can truly own these players.

  16. I think the thumbs down is, they cant stand when someone tells the truth. The big thing I think people miss about is not only they are bad, but look at the money they spent to be this bad, its nuts. How can a team make this many mistakes, coming off a world title and a great 102 win season.

  17. If the Reds are truly interested in Marlon Byrd, I wonder if the Phillies also added to the package with Bastardo, they would relinquish Jesse Winker., since they have Ervin waiting in the wings to join Hamilton and Bruce eventually in their 2015/16 OF.
    Winker is possibly good bat for LF, not much defense but gets by.

  18. The only showcase for aumont is in a bakery. What idiot came up with the competitive market lottery. to award teams extra pick. St Louis is small market? Marlins don’t want to be good. There owner will continue to draft players and then sell them. and collect money from the league. what a joke.

    1. That’s true – I adhere to the philosophy that the teams that just miss the playoffs should get the best draft picks. That way teams are not rewarded for tanking.

      1. Only problem with that set up is it creates a potentially deadly viscous cycle for the teams at the bottom of the standings.

        They really suck, so they pick around 20 each year. They don’t get any better because they’re drafting in a competitively disadvantaged position, so they can’t get ahead. The team is bad, so they have to either have to overpay for decent FAs or sign scrubs, which keeps them bad so fans don’t show up, which means even less money for FAs, which means even worse teams with a bad draft position and on and on.

        A perfect storm like that would be enough put a team out of business. It might not be an especially likely outcome and it would require a good bit of bad luck, but just the threat of it is likely enough to keep the idea off the table.

  19. Tigers get Soria, so that’s one more potential suitor off the market.

    Seems like Rube might be waiting too long here. I’m starting to think it’ll shape up to be a quiet deadline here, only Byrd and Burnett seem likely to be dealt at this point.

    1. It’s not about RAJ waiting. The relievers/closers that have been traded all have cheaper, shorter contracts. They also have better peripherals this year and are younger players. Oh and they aren’t colossal jerks like Papelbon.

    1. Not getting good vibes on Paps. I’m staring to think we might be stuck with him, unless we eat about 80% of his contract.

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