With the A’s/Cubs trade in the books, it’s just about “hug watch” time around the bigs. So let’s all talk about the trades we think could happen for the Phils. I will have a tweet opened to @BadMLB just in case any of you go off the rails, so watch out.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
Amaro sucks.
Sorry, I just felt like we should get that item of business out the way right off the bat, stipulate that we all more or less agree, and perhaps move the conversation onward?
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Seems wise. That guy should know we’re on his side, even though we will thumbs down him for “being that way”.
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Haha! Very well done, sir.
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Given my nay saying elsehwere, let me put down my markers for what we should/could do:
(1) Byrd, Burnett and Papelbon should most likely all be playing elsewhere past the deadline. None of them will get much back, but every bit helps.
(2) IF Lee proves his health enough to get decent offers, I would pull the trigger for sure. Most likely will have to happen past the deadline.
(3) Bastardo could go to sweeten a deal, but probably does not make sense as a stand alone.
(4) Amaro has to take phone calls about Utley. I think the chance that he is moved is less than 10%. I doubt that there will be much in the way of offers for Rollins. If so, and if he agrees to the trade, I’d do it if we get any kind of reasonable value in return. I wouldn’t move him just for the sake of moving him.
(5) Mayberry could be gone, Kendrick as well. Not sure there will be much demand there, and, if there is, we’re not getting much in return.
I don’t see anyone else being traded. Ruiz might have been gone absent the concussion.
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Its obvious, a healthy Lee could be the mother lode of returnable prospects.
Seems for the last seven years Lee, is the wanted nugget that contenders desire to obtain to win that ring. And still waiting for it to happen.
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This is assuming that the guy that traded away Lee the first time gets it right this time around.
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There is no value with mayberry in trading or keeping. Its time to release him and move on
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JMJ is a known commodity to platoon in LF or RF or play some 1st base or DH against lefties for the next couple years.
Now, go find the club that needs that guy and see what you get back. Maybe a high minors bench bat type. Like JMJ was five years ago. Or a single-tool lottery ticket arm – think about what the Phils got for John McDonald. JMJ is at least as useful as McDonald, with power replacing defense. If you can get an Ogando type, a mess of a power arm, and try to make it work, that’s fine with me, too. You’re not going to get anything like a Top 30 prospect for him, but the right buyer might give you an eventual big leaguer or someone who would at least compete for a roster spot.
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JMJ is not good, serviceable or adequate and wouldn’t be on most other major league rosters
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He’s a platoon/bench bat with power. If someone needed him to be a platoon bat, and was willing to use him exclusively as such, he would be adequate. The Phils just have a habit of using him more in an everyday role than he ever ought to be used.
Again, not sure who might need a guy like that, but they could be out there. Releasing him is not wise unless he’s truly blocking someone, which he’s not.
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Fire Amaro but that we already know.
Sell everyone and everything except Asche and maybe Revere (team control for 3 years; only move if you get a wow offer).
This team will not get better over the short term so you might as well accumulate assets, spend big in the offseason on reasonably priced deals, and build towards the future.
Decide where Franco is going to play next year in the field which forces a decision on Asche.
The quicker you accept that you are building towards 2016-17 the easier it will be.
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Franco is going to play in Allentown next year and Asche should be the Phillies starting 3B. Franco still has a lot of improvement needed in his game. A .220 BA in AAA doesn’t scream ‘move your starting major league 3B to another position for next season’. It looks more and more like significant major league time for Franco doesn’t come until 2016, which is fine — he is still very young.
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But allentown….what if he does a Franco-Version 2012 and finished the last six weeks on fire and ends up with say a .280/.360 BA/OBP.
Then does he return to LHV in 2015?
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That is the million dollar question. He has started to heat up and if it continues you will have to make a decision in the offseason.
He could start another year in LV but what if he plays well enough to warrant a call up or wins a spot in camp?
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Why keep Revere?
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young, cheap and his poor play in the outfield and somewhat at the plate can help the phillies get a better draft pick
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I’ll play CF for free beer in that case
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yeah but no bottles and no imports
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Keep Revere???? He is no major leaguer, people are starting to take second on fly outs
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I would rather see literally anybody, including you, in CF because no team will ever win anything with Ben Revere getting regular playing time. I don’t care how cheap he is because I can’t get past how awful he is.
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Hopefully Cliff Lee comes back and has a couple of strong outings. I would then see if the Cardinals would bite on a trade. They need a lefty in their rotation with Jiame Garcia now out for the year, and they also need a legit #2 starter to slot behind Wainwright. Cliff would fit both needs.
I’d ask for outfielder Stephen Piscotty as the headliner in the return package from the Cards. He’s hitting over .300 at Triple A Memphis with an .800 OPS. He’s their top prospect behind Oscar Tavares but is going to get stuck behind the Cardinals’ logjam of outfielders and could be made available in the right deal.
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Lee, will not be healthy in time to be dealt. Need more than 1 start for any MLB gm to spend anything to get him.
Utley/Rollins/Howard are stuck in Philly.
Papelbon and Byrd will be dealt, likely for backup OF/IF similar to Roger Bernadina.
Any other outfielder on the roster brings nothing. But finally discarding Mayberry would be a plus.
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In terms of trades, I break down the roster in the following way. This isn’t necessarily the way I would do it if I were the GM, just my best guess about how the front office sizes it up:
1) Untouchable (except in some crazy scenario): Cole Hamels, Chase Utley
2) Untradeable (for now): Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Mike Adams
3) Veterans who are probably worth more to the Phillies than to others: Ruiz, Rollins
4) Veterans who should be worth something: Papelbon, Burnett, Kendrick, Byrd
5) Young players who could be available at the right price: Bastardo, Brown, Revere, Diekman, Asche
6) Flotsam: Mayberry, Roberto Hernandez, Gwynn Jr., the Taxi Squad relievers
Regarding Tier 1, I don’t think Hamels is going anyplace, and Utley is too intrinsic the the team’s marketing and identity, plus he’s on a very team-friendly deal. Unless he tells the front office he wants out, I think he’s staying put. In Tier 2, Lee isn’t going anyplace so long as he’s still rehabbing, so we’re looking at August at best as a return date. In Tier 3, I’m not sure the probable return for Ruiz would justify trading him, especially without a viable option to replace him at AAA. Rollins is probably the biggest wild card on the list, but I really don’t think he’d bring back much, and if he’s not demanding a trade, it probably seems worth it to hang onto him until Crawford is ready around 2016. Who knows, maybe there might be some intangible benefit to having him together in Spring Training with Crawford next year.
The guys in Tier 4 are all going to be gone, I reckon, the only question is what kind of return the Phillies are likely to get for them. The Tier 5 guys are the most interesting to talk about. Do you include Diekman in the package if that’s the price of getting a good prospect for Marlon Byrd? If we could get a package for Ben Revere similar to what we gave up for him (5th starter type/high ceiling AA starter with command issues) should we pull the trigger? Is Domonic Brown a candidate for a change-of-scenery type trade? Would Cody Asche have any value to another team? If so, do you sell him now and thrust Franco up to the majors now, his struggles at AAA notwithstanding?
The Tier 6 guys are gone to the first team that offers a bucket of balls, and I think Gwynn’s probably going to get released when they promote Sizemore soon.
So, that’s how I see it. What do you guys think? I suspect that by the end of July this team is going to look a whole lot different, and so will the 10-20 range of our organizational prospect ranking list. I don’t see us getting us getting anyone who would slot into the Top 5, but it’s not out of the question we could end up with an Ethan Martin or Tommy Joseph caliber prospect (in other words a prospect comparable to Martin or Joseph at the time they were traded, not as they turned out).
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Sorry, correction: I meant to say “we’re looking at August at best as a TRADE date” for Lee, obviously it seems like his return date is likely to be in mid-to-late July.
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Lee has had such a long stint on the DL, it will take a while for his value to be restored. I would wait until at least the off-season to move him. He first must make several starts to prove that he remains Cliff Lee.
I agree with those who say that, besides Utley and Hamels, the other Phils are not worth much in trade. For that very reason, I would not trade the others. I am not interested in stocking the minors with a bunch of guys whose ceilings are as reserves.
As I have said previously, I am more a fan of the players than I am of the team. I think that Hamels would benefit by being traded to a team with a pitcher-friendly home park. I’d love to see Hamels’ pitching for the Dodgers or Giants later this season.
I also think that Rollins needs to play elsewhere if he is to make that final HOF push. He should be looking for a team where he can remain a starter for several more seasons. If I were Rollins, I’d be open to a trade right now to the right team. Otherwise, I’d jump ship after 2015 and not wait for the Phillies to give him a shove once Crawford is ready.
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Trade Hamels or Lee to the Dodgers for one of their bad contracts in the outfield. Get Pederson and another prospect back for taking on the bad contract.
After that, trade Burnett or Lee/Hamels to Orioles for 2 real prospects, and start getting younger and more talented.
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There’s zero chance of the Dodgers trading Pederson AND one of their vet OFers in the same deal. I could see an August trade (if Lee proves he’s healthy) of Lee for Kemp. Burnett to Baltimore makes sense too but you’re undervaluing Hamels. The returns on those two guys should be night & day.
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I would pass Lee through waivers just in case he pitches well at the start of August and someone knocks.
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To be brutally honest, I am attached to no one except for Asche because he is a rookie. Everyone else should be put up for trade.
I am quite interested in how our farm system will look come August 1.
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Before anyone speculates that a player should be traded, ask yourself who will take that player’s place. Amaro will not trade anyone without a reasonable replacement for the remainder of the season. Rollins, for one, will not be traded in my estimation for that reason.
They will not trade Lee, Burnett, and Kendrick so that they can run out Gregg Smith and Sean O’Sullivan for the rest of the season. I just don’t see it happening. Amaro may see Marquis as a reasonable replacement for 1 of them and that’s about it. For that same reason, I think there’s no chance in hell that Hamels gets dealt outside of a ridiculous offer like Puig and Joc Peterson.
Chooch could go after the deadline if he clears waivers with Nieves/Rupp filling in. Utley will die a Phillie. Bastardo could go. Paps is pretty likely given Giles’ success. Byrd will go with Sizemore taking his place. Mayberry could go with Ruff taking his place. Revere and Gwynn Jr. stay. Dom stays. Howard rots on our roster forevermore.
I’d say that we will all be very disappointed in the actual number of players that get dealt. I understand that Amaro can’t just announce in his interviews that we will be conducting a going out of business sale but his track record suggests that he will be very reluctant to trade off the players that he needs to. I’m guessing that no more than 3 players will get traded and that will absolutely infuriate me.
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Chooch isn’t going anywhere with two more bloated years on his three year deal.
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Agreed pap , Byrd, Lee , Mayberry not sure about Burnette he was to stay local balt, pitt philly or retire before season. Plus if we’re playing GM that means Amaro is gone.Any kind of trades you also have to tell us who will be taking that players place on the Phillies since that’s the job of the GM is to do that. My first move to make my international budget a about 20 mil hire 2 full time Cuban scouts and give Sal a full time staff . I, m going to keep Hamels , Utley, Kk I have too keep have my rotation can’t replace the thing. I have no one to replace Hamels now or in the near future some goes to Utley . Please don’t give me Herandez or Freddy . Galvis is great at defense Herandez can hit a little. Also give the name of the bottle of booze your giving the other GM after the trade. Larry M who are you trading those guys for. I’ll be back with my trades.
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There’s a good article about a Burnett trade to the Pirates. They make a hell of a case for a deal: http://thatballsouttahere.com/2014/07/02/report-pittsburgh-pirates-interested-in-aj-burnett/
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Glen Macnow, local WIP radio talk show host, started all this Pirates/Burnett talk last week as a guest-visit on a Pittsburgh radio show when he said Burnett would be a good fit for the Pirates and it grew legs from there.
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I would take josh bell for burnett in a heart beat. Even if we have to throw some money at the pirates
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Agree there….and send Josh Bell straight to Reading.
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Getting Bell for AJ would be a homerun
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It does not matter if you don’t have a guy to replace someone you are trading because this team is headed for 93 losses if the percentages hold.
When you are this bad you don’t worry about a replacement right now. You don’t pass on a trade with someone who has a year or two left on their contract because you create a hole. If you create a hole you fill it in the offseason.
You are selling because you are writing off the season and rebuilding.
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It matters if you don’t want to be even worse next year, which the club seems to want to avoid
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…and therein lies the problem with this front office. They are to scared to rebuild but are trotting out a horrible team in an empty stadium.
At some point you have to bite the bullet and rebuild.
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They are scared of the massive financial losses that would occur as well as completely losing the not insignificant portion of the fanbase that they gained over the last 6-7 years. Both understandable concerns IMO.
Now if you could guarantee that in 3-5 years they’d be contending again with that approach then OK. But there is no longer a sure fire way back from the bottom for big market clubs that do a poor job in developing their own talent
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And yeah they are close to the bottom now of course but trading guys that can’t easily be replaced like Hamels and Lee (probably Utley and Ruiz in the near term at least) makes it more likely you stay there longer
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Hamels iis 30.
Lee is 35.
Utley, Ruiz, and Rollins are 35.
Howard is 34.
Even if you hit the jackpot and are back in 3 years the only player worth keeping is Hamels.
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If we don’t hit the jackpot, Hamels will be useless too. We can’t assume that Crawford AND Quinn AND Nola are guaranteed stars in 2017.
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But what you are suggesting is likely to lead to multiple 100-110 loss seasons and then rely on this crew to obtain and develop prospects (something they haven’t shown they can do).
Not saying there is a fix here, far from it. But I’m not an advocate of the sell everyone approach
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The Phillies could follow the Washington National model to success.
Finish at the bottom 6/7 years running and go from there with draftees like these:
2011-Rendon-Pick #5
2010-Harper-#1
2009-Strasburg-#1
2009-Storen-#10
2007-JZimmerman-Rd1
2005-RZimmerman-Rd1
2004-Desmond-Rd3
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Romus that is certainly what some here seem to be advocating. And fair enough. Although I disagree with that approach I certainly understand people’s frustrations
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Reasons why the one or two 100-110 loss seasons would be helpful:
1. If the FO has better talent to work with, through the draft and the fire-sale trades, even though we have plenty of evidence to suggest they are inferior at developing that talent, they should be better at developing more talented players than less talented.
2. Fire sale trades would result in players likely closer to the majors than draftees, which would require less time developing in our inferior system.
3. Maybe that would influence a new FO or ideology to come in.
4. I don’t imagine the fans would show up much less than they do now. What was average capacity in the 90’s?
What would be the benefits of keeping Utley, Rollins, etc? Sell a couple more tickets for a year or maybe 2?
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Blowing things up and garnishing prospects has its risks.
There are no guarantees prospects ever turn out as expected or hope.
I think of all the ‘one star for a package of prospect’ trades thru the years, and how often it turns out poorly for the team receiving all the yutes.
Maybe it just seems that way.
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@ Romus, before advocating a rebuild with 1st round picks you need to look at the Phillies last ten first round picks. Even if Crawford and Nola are studs the rest are crapola. With the same guys making the picks it’s pretty unlikely that they’ll suddenly flip the script for an extended stretch.
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I agree but Amaro and Monty do not. I am explaining reality not what we want to happen.
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Did I miss a write up on the International signings?
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I wrote it up at Crashburn Alley and Matt wrote it up on his new site. Looks like no one was lined up to do it here, I guess.
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I know i’m in the minority here but I’m all for trading Hamels. I would put almost every veteran on the team up for trade to the highest bidder. Obviously if Chase and jimmy cant bring back anything reasonable in return then we can keep them but I think every other veteran should either go no matter what(byrd,KK,AJ) and the other ones could get fair value in return as long as we include money(this is all excluding Howard and other injured guys)
Right now I think that Hamels is willing to go to almost any contender just because he is sick of getting bad defense and run support. I feel that Hamels could bring back a huge return and by the time the prospects have established themselves in the majors he could be 34 or 35. I d rather rebuild and do it right than semi commit to a rebuild and win 80 games the next 10 years because that is how its going to turn out if Montgomery doesn’t want to lose attendance.
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Who In world would you start the girls softball team.they said time after time there not going to blow up the team.they will lose so salary and spend it in the off seson.
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Who cares who we are starting what’s the difference between 93 and 103 losses it’s about getting as much value back as possible
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For those scoring at home. If the season were to end today, the Phillies would have the 4th pick in the 2015 draft.
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2 games back from the worst record in MLB. Reality has to set in here. This is a BAD team.
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And lets not forget, third highest payroll. that is really bad. well one month until football so that will take off pressure, the Phillies will be lost once football starts,
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rocco….there are teams like the A’s, Os and Pirates with fairly low payrolls that are doing well. But in a few years they will have to pony up if they plan on keeping their budding star players.
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That’s why Billy beane is gm in Oakland. he can do wonders with his talent evaluation. and the pirates are trying to lock up Polanco for that very reason, the o must spend I believe, but romus that does not take away the fact, with the Phillies payroll to be this bad is a disgrace.
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and how many WS has Billy Beane won?
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Just remember it is easier to part ways with a talented player in their prime when you know there is 0% chance you are keeping him when he becomes a FA. So the MO. becomes to use them as an asset and maximize their value. Now the Phils have $$$ and do not need to be in that mode all of the time, but this team is on its way to 90+ losses and there is really no immediate help available from anywhere. Except possibly this new Cuban OF that just defected. So at this point all of our players need to be treated as assets and maximize their remaining value anyway you have to (eating $$$, holding on to them, trading them well before the deadline…) to acquire more assets to be used in any way, either parts of the next core, or pieces move to acquire pieces of the next core.
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The same Pirates who could be near first place if they were not too cheap to bring up Gregory Polanco right from the beginning of the season? Brad, these threads are never good ideas as it just unleashes all the pent up frustration and takes away from the strong point of this site-Phillies prospects.
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With the trade of their top two starters, I’m betting on the Cubs to win the Daz Cameron Sweepstakes.
Still, the Phils have a good chance for a top 3 pick in next year’s draft.
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WHAT A MORON YOU ARE ANONYMOUS. BEANE HAS A TEAM IN CONTENDING WHO DOESNT SPEND MONEY.. Just with his brilliant way to build a team. speaking of a team why in gods name do we have the marlins. that owner is a disgrace, he is now selling his international money. and all he collects from the mlb small market money, he is just bleeding money from we he can.
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Wonder if Amaro reads MLBtraderumors and is reminded that you can now trade for bonus slot money and competitive balance picks. Not many out of the box thinkers in that FO.
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Missing a bit I think from the discussion is $$$. If the Phillies tear it all down as some are (not unreasonably) suggesting you are looking at a 100 loss team next year, a further attendance drop, with the team losing tens of millions in revenue. On top of that people are relying on the Phils to pay significant millions in salary to sweeten the return for trades. Let’s also not forget that what appears to be a significant portion of the new TV deal is tied to the Phillies getting a piece of ad revenue which will also be reduced in value as TV rating decline. Not saying I agree with all of Monty’s and Amaro’s recent comments but I certainly can see where they are coming from.
In the above scenario, we are essentially a banking on the club doing 3 things they haven’t done well (evaluate other team’s prospects effectively, obtain those pieces in exchange for veterans, and develop them and your own prospects into effective major leaguers) and/or hit big on a few free agents in a terrible market
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They’re going to lose attendance and revenue regardless. Do you see Citizens Bank Park being filled to capacity.
The only thing they’re going to do is build another team that needs every single thing to go right for it to win a second wildcard. No intelligent person thinks they can contend next year. A 100 loss team would be the best thing to happen to them in 2015.
They should be focusing all their efforts on 2016-2017. Those teams have a chance to be good if Nola, Crawford, Quinn, Franco, and whomever they draft in the top 5 next year pans out. Also David Price, Jeff Samardjiza, among others are going to be free agents in 2015. With the Cable money kicking in in 2016 they can have a Yankees like spending spree and fill in some holes with some elite talent.
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There’s a big revenue difference between this years team and one that loses 110 games both in attendance and tv viewership.
Yeah I get it., but they simply aren’t going to let that happen. If they do end up selling everyone they are just going to spend big this winter to put a competitive team on the field next year.
Now my mind, and probably theirs, would be swayed if they were able to get a lot of talent back in trades for vets but I frankly don’t see that happening. All of our trade chips have warts either in their game or contracts. Eating salary is one thing but when you are talking about paying 25M to get a better prospect you better hope the guy becomes a solid or better major leaguer or else it is a terrible use of resources
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All they will be doing is putting a bandaid on the problem, if they stay the same course, better to take financial hit for two seasons, then to be this bad for longer period.
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But you can’t guarantee that it will be 1-2 years and neither can they
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But you can guarantee that the team will be worse if you stay the course.
93 losses, $177.7 million, and a core that is 35 years old with the exception of Hamels.
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No I can’t guarantee they’d be worse with Hamels, Lee, Utley, etc than without them. They’d be significantly worse without those guys. Unless you think they are going to massively hit on trades for those guys which is beyond silly
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The logic is that beyond those 2 years, the only one of those that would be contributing in either scenario is Hamels, and he can’t create 15 WAR on his own.
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I understand that. But there’s value in having those guys on the team over the next 2 years. The question is whether that value is likely to be more than the value of players received in return.
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I don’t mean to sound like a jerk, but I know no other way to ask. What is the value that they could be adding over the next 2 years?
Ticket revenue that would be put into going overslot in LA (ha, yeah right)? Improvement from 0.1% playoff chance to 2% playoff chance?
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Right and what are your expectations for next season. We are 90+ losses now. Does anyone really expect this team to get back to .500?
Are people really going to pay to see a 35+ year old Rollins, Utley, and Howard?
The Phillies have gone from 37,190 average attendance to 30,437. People are not paying to see this bad team.
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The value is that they are better (perhaps far better in Lee and Utley’s case) than their likely replacements. With a series of moves such as trading guys like Burnett and Paps for a complimentary piece or two that could help next year, a smart FA OF signing or two, and a bit if luck (Franco gets back on track, Ruf gets healthy and hits, a young pitcher or two steps up, etc) and there is a path to 85 wins next year. There’s a lot of financial value to that in terms of ticket sales and tv adds if it works.
Now granted the odds of that happening are quite small and I’m pretty certain we don’t have the front office to pull it off. But ask yourself if the odds of that happening are better or worse than this front office pulling off a complete rebuild from scratch in the next 5 years. The risk is basically incalculable if they don’t pull off the rebuild.
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Exactly the past few years when we Could have been rebuilding we have been going for the very minute chance of making the playoffs. That obviously fails so we will spend the next 10 in mediocrity instead rebuilding and getting the losing over with
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Just noticed…no more ‘thumbing up or down’…..kudos.
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Ok so if I’m the GM of the Phillies I would hope by now that the fans would have already stormed into my office and ran me out of town. (Fire and pitch forks are pretty persuasive) Seriously though here is what I would do.
1) Trade Cole Hamels and Papelbon to the Orioles. The Orioles need an ace and need to make a push for the world series now while they still have(and can pay) players like Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Markakis, Wieters and others. I would eat enough of the money so I could get SP Gausman, SP Harvey, SP Bundy, and 1B Christian Walker. Other lower level prospects could be involved as well bench type players if need be.
2) I would trade Marlon Bryd to the Royals for the best pitching prospects I could get. I’ve heard a few different names involved with Byrd. Considering the Giants gave up Zach Wheeler for Beltran a few years back I think 2 good pitching prospects and a third project type pitcher would be fair. Ideally I would like to get their top pitching prospect and a second good prospect, considering Byrd has another year on his contract. I’d definitely eat some money to sweeten the return. Once Bryd is traded I’d call up Altherr and have him play everyday.
3). Trade Bastardo, John Mayberry Jr., and even Dom Brown if he can be swapped for a change of scenery type player.
4.) Hold on to Burnett, Lee, Ruiz, and Kendrick for now. I think that Lee will be more valuable in the offseason then he is right now. Not only will he have the chance to rebuild some trade value but he will be someone they can market for the remainder of the year. I’d try and trade Ruiz in the offseason as well. Kendrick can walk in free agency and we will take a comp pick if we get one but I’m not sure we do. Either way he isn’t going to bring back a huge return and we don’t have anyone to replace him if he is traded now. Next season I would let my rotation start with Burnett, Gausman, then hopefully Nola if he’s ready,followed by 2 guys to hold down the fort ( Hernandez, Buchanan type guys) Lee could be in this mix as well if we wait until July to trade him.
5) THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT:
Gausman has good stuff and should be a solid starter, Nola will be in this mix, along with Bundy and Harvey. That’s four potential rotation arms who you could probably build around. Hopefully Biddle can come back and at least be a back end rotation guy if not more. J.P Crawford will be on his way soon, hopefully he can bring a guy like quinn with him and maybe another good outfielder in Sandberg, Brown (not Dom!), Tromp. Let’s not forget that Franco should be able to turn things around and be a plus hitter. The bullpen is in good shape with Giles, Hollands, DeFratus. There are some other prospects I haven’t mentioned who could make an impact as well. Plus I haven’t included any players from a Lee deal either. My plan allows for Chase and Rollins to stay for now and brings back talent too. Under my plan we have a lot of young pitchers for the rotation, a strong bullpen already (plus any prospects added through trades or draft) and some young bats. This at least gives us a foundation to add to and maybe sign a couple impact free agents in the next few years to get back to the playoffs. And I forgot to mention we will have another high 1st round pick again this year because we currently are terrible.
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This probably is the most overly optimistic post about what we could get for our veterans since last season, when a commenter suggested that trading our veterans should net us 5 to 7 major league ready regulars/starting pitchers.
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All three of the O’s pitching prospects and another? Yeah, this is a wild one.
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Gausmann, Harvey, and Bundy is not enough for King Cole. They’d need to throw in Schoop as well. /sarcasm.
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That is some pretty comprehensive changes. I guess the only person not worried about being moved would be the batboy.
Actually a player with one more year left on their contract, eg Marlon Byrd, is more attractive then a rental, which can walk without any compensation without a QO.
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For those of you who haven’t been following the Astros, espn notes about Singleton:
Jonathan Singleton has hit .168 since his call-up with 46 strikeouts in 32 games. He’s flashed that power potential and is young, but the strikeouts are a concern.
Does anyone feel any better?
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Larry my post may be a little optimistic but if you look at different trades in recent years I don’t think the orioles trade is too much of a stretch. I mean look what the phillies gave up for hunter pence 3 of those players are in the big leagues right now. the rays got will Myers for Shields and Davis. I’d say Hamels is better than shields and is locked up, Papelbon is having a really good year as well. So if you eat some money I don’t think a few top prospects is too high. What do you think they could get?
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baseball america released its midseason top 50 prospects. fast-rising j.p. crawford is 23rd and franco is 50th.
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also, aaron nola allowed just one hit over five innings today.his last two appearances have been superb – nine scorless innings.
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Great news!!!
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Aaron Nola with another great effort today.
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Nice to see 15 of 16 first pitch strikes. 58 pitches overall in 5ip thats pretty dang good
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I would buy
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anyone know his velocity??
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rocco….147 kph
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wow that is great ty romus.
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Matt Gelb article on Ruben’s immediate thoughts:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Ruben-Amaro-Jr-offers-frank-assessment-of-moribund-Phillies.html
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So … Cole Hamels. I actually would be more willing to see him dealt than most people here. But he’s not going to get nearly as much in return as most people imagine. And the biggest reason for that is a factor that many people seem to … not so much underestimate, but ignore completely.
As of today, Cole Hamels is owed just over 100 million dollars. That’s for just under 4 1/2 seasons (including a buy out for another year; if that option is executed, the total price tag jumps to over 114 million).
That’s not a BAD contract, but it’s not a bargain either.
And that matters – a lot – to all organizations. Most organizations won’t take that contract on at all; those that would, will not place the same value on him that they would on a similar player without that kind of contract.
People want to point to the exceptional trades over the past few years, and (a) ignore the fact that those trades aren’t the norm, and (b) ignore the reasons why those trades were made. And one of the most common reasons is cost control (for at least a couple of years) for a young player. Players with 100 plus million dollar contracts, when traded (which isn’t that often) bring smaller packages than one would expect if one judged the players on production value alone.
Hammels might get a top prospect. One top prospect, and some filler. Might. But people imagining that he (or he and Papelbon, whose value is far lower) are going to get multiple top prospects are kidding themselves.
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Hamels to the orioles may not be the greatest fit and I see what youre saying with his contract but you never know what kind of return you could get. If a team loses a pitcher to injury adding a guy like hamels might be the right fit. I realize my trade scenario may be asking high but if the phillies are willing to eat some salary in order to get the prospects they need to move forward they will allegedly do it. I would say if they came away with bundy and harvey in a trade not many people would complain. I think hamels should go but ruben is probably not gonna trade him
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“if they came away with bundy and harvey in a trade not many people would complain”
Every single Orioles fan ever would complain. Forever.
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“if they came away with bundy and harvey in a trade not many people would complain” in regards to phillies fans haha
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You’re right that $100M players rarely get traded, but the two that jump out in my memory (Fielder and ARod) actually set a precedent of fairly high returns.
Now that’s not to say we should expect it, because something happening a couple of times in a couple of decades doesn’t prove any kind of correlation. But it would seem to me that you can get plenty of a return; I’d take Kinsler now, or Soriano+Arias then (and man oh man, would it be nice to have Cano on that list of PTBNL). It seems, to me at least, that the money isn’t the issue; the issue is trading the player whilst his performance is still elite so that the money seems appropriate. No one minds paying $25M to Fielder or ARod in their prime, and the same goes for Hamels. And market value these days seems to include paying them more than they’re worth after their prime. So I guess we just need to find someone with money to spend, which I guess is where the problem lies. The Yankees would be nice due to their limitless money and their need for SP, but I don’t actually believe they’re a trade fit.
Anyways, in terms of prospects, I guess it depends on how prospects are valued versus established major league all-stars (Kinsler and Soriano, we can dismiss Arias since prospect value is different now than it was then). But if you assume Kinsler in a trade right now would net you 2 top prospects, then would that mean Fielder would have netted that as well?
Well, I personally think this discussion is just for conversation sake; I can’t see the FO trading Hamels because that would be admitting they are further than a year away from competing. Considering how delusional (or dishonest) they are, it would be too far out of character.
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Well again we hear no way you get anything for hamels, amazing. I just keep hearing the same bull while teams make trades, that you say wont happen, cubs, the other day, the no way we get this guy and the prospects you call untouchable stink or not as good. you overvalue prospect so much its really crazy. You make it sound like no one will over pay for a chance to win. And to you hamels contract is a issue based on you stats? To teams like the dodgers, yankeess, redsox.. and I know I am missing some they would take him in a minute and give up good prospects.
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yeah I heard the dodgers may try to add another start pitcher, especially because there is some dispute with cable providers and them landing a start player could resolve it. The rays are asking for 3 of the dodgers top prospects just to start talking and could be looking for more for price. I think the dodgers would rather take hamels contract and give up lets say two of their top prospects with maybe two other decent prospects instead of losing their top three of four. Add hamels to the dodgers rotation and that is pretty nasty.
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How many times have we seen trades of star players with expiring contracts conditioned on the successful negotiation of an extension? Hamels’ contract should not be an impediment to a trade. He is relatively young and healthy; the contract is for reasonable annual dollars and is not inordinately long. To ensure a nice haul, I would throw in, maybe, $30 million over the length of Hamels’ contract. Teams would salivate over the opportunity to acquire a healthy, 30-year-old pitcher of Hamels’ caliber for four years at an annual de facto salary of $15 million.
Whether or not the Phillies would throw in the cash is besides the point. There are a lot of things that Phillies’ management won’t do. Hence, the poor state of the franchise.
Hamels is also a better pitcher than Samardzija. One and a half seasons of Hamels is worth more than one and a half seasons of Samardzija. Four and a half seasons of Hamels is worth considerably more. With a $30 million sweetener, trading for Hamels is a no-brainer. Trading Hamels and cash could yield two top prospects.
My take-away from the trades of recent years is that it is possible to get a good return when trading an expensive star player, but it is not a certainty. The Phils are not forced to trade Hamels. If they can’t make the right deal now, the Phils should hold onto him until the right deal comes along.
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Even if hamels has 100 million owed to him he could still net 2 top 100 guys most likely more. Not might get a top prospect
But I guess that all depends on what we consider a top prospect
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Not matter how much hamels so owed he is gonna get you 2 top 100 prospect and maybe another. Not might eat you a top prospect
But I guess that depends on what we consider a top prospect
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Pap and Burnette for hunter Harvey.
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Sign me up.
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Revere steals 2nd gets on 3rd Chase hits 1 out. Brown gets hurt.
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Slot value trades are happen go onto mlbtraderummors
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Tim Kurkjian was on the fanatic today (he’s normally pretty in the know) and said that he doesn’t see or hear anyone moving except Hernandez. He also expects RAJ to still be here next year which makes sense bc you wouldn’t keep him around for a trade deadline unless you were going to keep him around for a rebuild. This sucks.
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Amaro contacts runs out at the end of 2015.2016 is when the Comcast money comes in . They will have a say in the GM post.
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Tim , I know Comcast will have no say in the running of the team. They aren’t involved in the teams personal or decision. That being said if the team keep really going down, then maybe Comcast tries to get some say, but for now its Montgomery and Giles, ruben and the owners.
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rocco…Comcast did have a say in not bringing back Chris Wheeler in the booth. Though he still can be employed by the Phillies, but not heard on their cable programming.But that is different then actual baseball operations.
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When the TV ratings go down then Comcast will say something. I’d rather have Comcast by a controlling interest of the team.
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I know at least one bright spot for me this season was Giles last night. He didn’t have his slider to start the inning but keep with it and was impressive, He didnt have his best stuff and gets out of the inning,
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Baltimore would be a great trade partner. Tight race in the AL East, players with a closing window of prime, good prospect pipeline. With that in mind:
1) Baltimore recieves Burnett and Paplebon
2) Phillies recieve RHP Gausman and C Ohlman, as well as eat a chunk of Pap’s salary.
Another possible fit for Paplebon would be Detroit, for the same reasons listed above, though their higher end prospects may be harder to get.
Obviosly guys like Marlon and Jimmie should go to the highest bidder.
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I want Harvey for those two, and we throw in bastardo, That kid has a chance to be really good. but I am dreaming.
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See. this is why I don’t participate much anymore in these threads. It’s one thing to debate just how much our few valuable veterans could bring – Lee, Utley, and Hamels – but when people start packaging a fading closer on an expensive contract who we couldn’t GIVE away last year with an inconsistent 37 year old starter who has pitched okay but far from spectacularly and expect the 1st and 7th best prospects (per Sickles) in a decent system … words fail me. It’s not just unrealistic, but unrealistic cubed.
Call this next bit sympathy for the devil … well, okay, Amaro isn’t the devil, but he isn’t a very good GM. But he SHOULD trade those guys, and Baltimore probably is a good partner. But let’s say he makes what would be quite a good deal, getting say a couple prospects in the 10 to 20 range in Baltimore’s system. He’ll get ripped to shreds here & on WIP & pretty much everywhere. Ohlman is having a down year in AA, so maybe he could get him & a lesser prospect. That would be a good get, but he would be criticized for it.
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I Just would love to get Harvey, don’t know what it would take. Paplebon should have some value he isn’t a fading closer imo. what his value is, I really don’t know. I Think it depends on money, and how desperate a team is for a quality closer, which he is right now. I personally wouldn’t touch Bundy, and I don’t think Baltimore wants to move a prospect like him, but arm injury’s bother me. That being said Bundy is a great prospect,
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“Obviosly guys like Marlon and Jimmie should go to the highest bidder.”
They already have. His name is David Montgomery.
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No trade clauses notwithstanding, I think Burnett, Papelbon, Byrd, Rollins and Utley all have value as long as we kick in $$ (maybe up to half of their remaining salaries). For each, I would hope to get 1 or 2 prospects who are ranked in an organizations 5 to 10 range. Hamels is difficult to trade b/c you won’t get equal value for his talent due to the size of his contract. Lee is a wild card. There are several teams that could use an ace (O’s, Blue Jays), but his injury and contract are hindrances. If nothing happens by July 31, he should definitely be placed on waivers. I would just let him go for the salary relief.
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I’m sure this sentiment has already been covered ad nauseum, but I’ll restate it here: Anyone expecting a better haul of prospects than the Phillies received during the 2012 sell-off is kidding themselves. Papelbon, Byrd and Burnett (if he agrees to be dealt) might get you an Ethan Martin and a handful of Seth Rosins, but top 100 prospects aren’t in the cards. Utley might warrant one of those prospects, but that’s not going to be enough to convince management to unload him (again, if he even agreed to be dealt). Rollins and Ruiz, as has been stated here, are more valuable to the Phils than somewhere else. Lee might get us a Top 50 prospect in August if healthy, but there’s nothing sure about that.
I’m all for unloading bloated contracts to start the rebuild, but we should all be realistic about what the Phils are going to receive.
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MikeHoncho…..in 2012 things were a bit different in the market return value due to the fact Victorino was a ‘rental’ with LAD apparently not wanting to QO him in two months, so Ethan Martin was a reasonable exchange.
Pence was slightly different then Victorino’s situation, but still a large payday was due to come up in the next calendar year.
Unfortunately Martin and Joseph could not stay healthy.
This time around Byrd, Burnett and Paps are not considered ‘rental’ players for 2014, and the receiving team has them for another year or more…in Paps case…so the return has to be more favorable then the 2012 returns.
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I don’t get this logic. In dealing with old and expensive players who have already shown their age, being a rental is actually a plus. Do you really think that another GM looks at Burnett’s age, salary and up and down season and thinks ‘thank God he’s locked up for 2015’? I think 90% of GMs will see the 2015 commitment as a negative. Same thing for Papelbon. He’s been effective this season, but the velocity is definitely down, and he had a long stretch of ineffectiveness last season. It’s one thing to think you can continue his current good streak and he’ll help you in 2014. 2015 is a very expensive if. Byrd seems the best bet of the three for 2015, but he’s at the age where he could go way downhill next season. Other than Ruben always gushing over a cost-certain second season (and even he dumped Pence before that season was over, and found his second Adams year to be close to a dead loss) most teams in deadline deals are thinking of current season, especially with an old player. They have lots of options to choose from in the off-season, including the maturation of their own farmhands.
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Now that is nuts to release him? your kidding I hope. There is no one to replace him, salary relief for what?? If lee doesn’t bring you back a couple of prospects, then you keep him. he still is quality pitcher, How many aces do you see traded for salary relief??
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It is very far from clear that Lee is still an ace. Let’s see what he looks like when he returns to the bigs.
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What bothers me is the fact. that Jim Salisbury trying to get some type of nugget from Ruben as to future movement, comes up with Ruben saying ‘changes are coming’….in the form of Darin Ruf, Freddy Galvis and maybe Franco. ‘who can also play first base’
Surely Ruben is not that unaware that those changes are minimally embarrassing.
He is either being closed mouth on the changes forthcoming, or fearful of pulling the trigger to avoid risk.
It is so frustrating.
;(
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I wince just about every time I see him quoted, and this is no exception.
But there is a thrid possibility – granted, this gives him the benefit of the doubt. He knows how bad things are, and knows that dramatic positive changes are not realistically possible in the short run. But he can’t SAY that. So he puts the best spin on it he can. Granted that spin isn’t very … encouraging.
Here’s the thing .. even if our veterans end up getting more in return than I think they will, most of those prospects won’t be major league ready (that’s preferrable, as, all else equal, major league ready talent will likely be lower ceiling). So who gets plugged in for the departed veterans? Guys like Ruf, Galvis, and Sizemore. Exciting? No. But in the short run, that’s what we’re going to get if Amaro ends up pulling the trigger on some deals.
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Well, yeah. He mentions two guys for the position held by the player he absolutely cannot move and the owners won’t allow him to platoon. No mention of positions held by the guys who actually might be tradable.
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Romus he is drowning without a life vest and cant swim. Seriously the biggest question I have is does the owners tell Montgomery to get him out, or does Montgomery and giles keep him and talk the owners into, its just a bad season we can bounce back type of garbage.
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Well things do change.
Monty is fighting health issues now, and good luck to him on that battle, also approaching 70-years old, and he did say he does not want to be involved in five-year plans.
So he may be looking at two, maybe three years longer as President, then I can only assume Ruben elevates up the rung to the President’s job..
Then the GM position is open.
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Everybody is talking about trading Papelbon, but there should be more talk about trading Giles.
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This thread has officially gone meta.
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I mention giles today on discussion. The way he fought back without his slider early in inning, and stay with it, was the highlight of the year for me so far. That kid look like a closer. the biggest bright spot so far for me
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your nuts Derek trading Giles? Larry is right sick comments on here lately
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I don’t know. Consider this. A closer is the last thing a team needs to be successful. If trading Giles would fill two other positions then you have to think about it. If you could parlay him into a number 3 starter and an outfielder do you do it?
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This is a dream. A reliever who has a few weeks in the majors, no matter how good, is not going to fill several holes in trade. Nor is Giles a guy we want to lose. Hopefully he is still good when the Phillies are next good. Papelbon for sure will not be. You build around the pieces you have.
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Precisely. Give him a chance to develop. If he’s the real thing, he’s entering his prime when the revamped (hopefully) roster is ready to contend.
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Papelbon briefly, then work.
Before even discussing whether he is declining, you have three obstacles to a large return: first, there are two more highly regarded relievers on the market, hurting his value. Secondly, the contract – let’s not forget that 2016 has a reasonably easily met vesting clause. It’s still a big contract even if the Phillies chip in significantly. Finally, he is pretty universally regarded as a negative clubhouse presence.
As for “declining,” here is where “traditional” player evaluation and modern metrics agree, and where more “casual” evaluation doesn’t. Casual fans look at the ERA and the save percentage, and think he is still elite. But BOTH trditional evaluation and modern metrics, while not ignoring ERA and save percentage, look at his declining fastball speed and other metrics – K% and BB% – and see a pitcher who is getting done with mirrors, and who could easily revert to 2013 (or worse) levels of play. Now, one peripheral HAS been quite good this year – his HR%, which literally could not be better. But that arguably cuts the other way – no one could reasonably expect that to continue. A normal HR rate and his ERA would look a lot worse. AND with his declining FB speed, he good easily go from his current performance to a 4.00 plus ERA and be done as an effective closer.
Now, that doesn’t mean that he is without value. But anyone expecting a big return is kidding themselves.
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I’m not a defender of the organization as a rule, but, based upon what other organizations are saying about their talks with the Phillies (IMO more reliable than public statements by sources within the organization), they have exactly the correct additude regarding Lee, their top tradeable asset (read to the bottom):
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11190267/cliff-lee-philadelphia-phillies-return-dl-all-star-break
I still don’t think they will get an offer worth taking before the deadline, but it doesn’t hurt to try. And the willingness to eat significant salary is encouraging.
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It is all about maximizing return for me. And barring a significant injury or uncharacteristically poor performance his value will be higher next deadline
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I think that you should pass Lee through waivers just in case someone calls on August 20th looking for a starter and Lee has two good outings.
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In retrospect, I wonder what the Dodgers offer was last August after they claimed him. And, he does not have to go July 31, as has been pointed out already, he can go in August if he shows he is healthy. I still think that the biggest return is for Utley, and I think the Giants, and A’s would want him. The Giants think they can win again, even after this slump, and have 3 highly regarded pitchers.
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Do we know they made an offer?
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Go onto mlbtraderummors now school down to 2nd baseman.
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Let’s trade Revere, Mayberry and Kendrick , throw in Papelbon and see who needs a pile of sh!t the most
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Do you mean Manure, as in Manny?
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One thing about sh!t is you can pile it as high as you like and it’s still manure
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Thorough analysis by David Murphy on the Future Pitchers Market:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Phillies-trade-deadline-preview-Cole-Hamels-Cliff-Lee-and-the-starting-pitching-market.html
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Good article, I think LA would be a good trade partner for the phillies. They can certainly afford Hamels, especially if we ate some of his contract. I hope that trading hamels is at least something the phils are seriously considering. Sounds like Amaro has had his fill of our lineup not producing so maybe he will go after some bats after all.
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Personally. I am inclined to keep Hamels, and possibly testing the market with Cliff Lee in three weeks.
AJ Burnett, may be thrilled to go home to Camden Yards and the O’s if they would be willing trade partners….and maybe get a few of their lower tier prospects like pitchers Jon Keller and Parker Bridwell
Duquette sees the opp this year with the Sox and Rays floundering and Yankees losing CC for the season.
All comes down to how Ruben plays his hand.
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How do you think he plays his hand? god bless you romus if you trust Ruben.
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I cringe at the thought of Ruben wheeling and dealing, but he’s da man for now.
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I may be wrong, but i think a package of AJ, Byrd and Paps and $15 mil to Baltimore gets us one of their top 3 pitchers. Probably the one the farthest away from the majors, ie Harvey. And before Larry comments 8 times that I am an idiot and strongly implies that he is the only smart person on this blog, here is my rationale:
1. This is a unique opportunity for Baltimore. They haven’t had a chance to win the division in a long time.
2. They would be trading from depth. Losing Harvey would hurt, but they still got 2 other top pitching prospects.
3. When you are selling, you only need 2 interested teams to get a bidding war going. And the thought of losing those three guys to Toronto and then losing the division to Toronto is enough to drive the price up.
4. GMs value prospects, but pitchers who are 3 years away from the majors are NOT valued by GMs contending for a division title as much as some on this blog are saying. There is a lot of risk of even a great prospect like Hunter Harvey not being an elite MLB pitcher. A LOT of risk. Sometimes posters make it seem like we are getting a guaranteed MLB All Star. It doesn’t work like that most time.
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LOL……Larry has that affect on posters!
Your points ..1 thru 4 are reasonable.
I think getting Harvey for the three of AJ, Byrd and Paps and $$$ is doable.
You may be able to get Jon Schoop thrown in also from the Os..
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Interesting idea but they don’t need byrd, they already have a pretty good outfield with Cruz, Markakis, and Jones. I think we could definitely send them pap and aj but idk if we could get harvey, but he would be a good prospect to go after.
I read today about the yankees considering lee and in a theoretical trade proposal we got C Gary Sanchez I believe and a pitcher (both in AA) While I would like to see the phillies get AA prospects I don’t want another catcher. We tried with joseph and he wasn’t worked out so far bc of injury. I think we need to target outfielders and pitching. Ruiz has 2 more years on his deal plus a club option so we can leave chooch behind the plate for now and rebuild other areas on the depth chart. Also I hate the yankees and would vomit seeing lee pitch for those bags of scum
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If Lee should be offered to the Yankees, then I would be inclined to try to get Aaron Judge as the righthanded power OF bat that can be included in the deal, along with RHP Luis Severino playing at Tampa in the FSL.Both players are 2016 call-ups I would think.
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I don’t think you could get both of them. Judge on his own would be fine by me (plus some low A lottery tickets).
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THANK god someone with some common sense. I feel we are the only team who cant get anything but a janitor for our players,
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Well I won’t call you stupid. And this is .. less unrealistic than some of the pie in the sky proposals that we have seen. But I think you are overly optimistic.
At the end of the day, here’s why: there are better options out there if the Baltimore wants to trade away prime prospects. For the same reason, the point about a bidding war is undercut – if there’s a bidding war for anyone, it wil be the prime starting pitchers/closers available, and the Phillies players (at least the ones that you are suggesting be dealt) are the back up choices for the loser in the bidding war.
So you’re left with one argument – that the value of 3 lesser veterans taken together is enough to pry a prime prospect away. I don’t think that’s likely. Is it utterly impossible, like some of the dream deals proposed? No, but very unlikely, And forget about Gausman; definitely not happening.
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I have not exactly been the president of Byrd’s fan club, but he is having a very nice year and has power. He has trade value. Paps hasn’t been getting it done with great stuff, but he’s been getting it done. He has value to a contender, although the rest of his contract is a problem.
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Unfortunately Byrd has a terrible contract. Another case of the Phil’s bidding against themselves
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That is completely wrong. $8 mil per year with only next season guaranteed is a very good contract for Byrd’s production.
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I mostly agree with you here – though there is a downside risk next year given his age which you don’t account for.
Interesting enough, Byrd has one thing going for him, the opposite of what I argued about Papelbon and Burnett above. That is, there isn’t much in the way of power hitting corner outfielders on the market. OTOH, the demand is likely lower as well.
He’ll get something, but not an elite prospect.
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3rd year is almost guaranteed to be vested
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Agreed, my guess, in terms of financial impact, is the Phillies might have to eat a small part of next year’s deal (($2 million?) and half of the vesting option year (about $4 million) to optimize the prospect return. That would be a win-win for everyone. I’m thinking the win-now Yankees, or Orioles, or Royals, might really want that type of deal. He’d be a nice pick-up.
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I REALLY hate to defend Ruben but Byrd’s contract is far from terrible. $8M for his production is a steal.
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I would sell on both Hamels and Lee. Hamels will get you a decent package. His problem here is a definite lack of run support; something that has gone on far too long to be an aberration.
Then again, I am on the side of sell everything and get the rebuilding underway. Moving $40 million in salary opens the door using money in the offseason to rebuild the team.
Not doing anything with a 90+ loss team and $177,7 million payroll limits you in the offseason. The team does not want to pay the luxury tax and they are too top heavy to add anyone that costs more than a minimum deal.
Next year the team has $127.9 million committed to 9 players. If you want to add pieces in the offseason someone has to move.
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Trading both Hamels and Lee..I can see Lee, but balk at Hamels, who is the senior leader on the staff for the next 4/5 years if both are dealt and when the kids need some guidance?
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The coaches? Isn’t that exactly what they’re there for; to mentor?
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Missanelli and Ruben Dueling It Out This Afternoon.:
http://www.975thefanatic.com/teams/phillies/2014/07/08/mike-missanelli-joined-by-phillies-gm-ruben-amaro-jr-1
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Inconceivable to me how Mikey and his callers expect RAJ to admit to the deficiencies of his individual players when he is (supposedly) trying to move them.
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You worry about that in three years not right now.
If someone offers you a top prospect for Hamels do you balk because of 4-5 years down the road?
No, you make the deal and move forward with the rebuild. You have no guarantee that Hamels will be here in 4-5 years. He could come to you and say ‘I am tired of the lack of run support and do not want to pitch for a team that does not play well behind me.’ What do you do then?
There are no easy decisions right now but if you want to pull a Red Sox you have to dump the top heavy salaries that constrain your ability to make moves.
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I meant not in 2018/19, I meant for the next 4 years starting with 2015. You will need Hamel’s leadership for the next 4 or maybe 5 years with players like Nola, hopefully Biddle, Watson, Morgan, Imhof and Pettbone
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Romus Cole Hamels right now isn’t a leader. look at his face when he is pitching. I know he is frustrated, but you cant let your teammates see you like that. the lack of offense has really gotten to him. and it shows, its time for him to move on to another team, if they get value if not he stays, but he doesn’t seem happy.
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rocco….the only one who is ever smiling is Happy Revere, and not sure what he has to be so happy about most of the time, does that mean all the unhappy looking guys are not considered leaders?
About the only time i ever saw Chase smile was when he was popping a cork bottle of champagne. His leadership stemmed from his play. And assuming the interest in Hamels, then there are indications he has pitched well.
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Leadership by players in grossly over-rated IMHO. I can see it in football, where you need a guy on the field to tell the other players what they need to do on the next play and rev them up emotionally, but apart from the catcher working with the pitchers, there really isn’t much place for player leaders in baseball. Most of the guys the Phillies have brought in to be leaders over the years haven’t been. Rose is about the only one the other players acknowledged as a leader in later years. The manager and his coaches are supposed to lead. Teams really only like player leaders when they are management toadies. Ask Burrell about how his ‘we’ll win this for ourselves and ignore Bowa’ campaign went. I wouldn’t keep a vet around to provide future leadership and in a few years Hamels will be very veteran. I used to think we should keep Hamels for when we are next in contention, but my view today is that he is a horse who has been ridden very hard this year. He started the year injury. At his salary, I think the smart move is to grab a great offer, if it is out their, and let his future arm health be another team’s problem.
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I respect that.
Leadership is another one of those unmeasurable intangibles.
We agree to disagree.
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Dutch Dalton was another one so is cooch I know you said catcher. Who are you going to get to replace Hamels ?. We have no ready pitching at all. Amaro will turn around buy a Lester or a top Fa pitcher . the money they save by trading pap, Lee etc will be used in the winter.Plus now with Peavy being out there the Cardinals are all over him. 2016 will be the big yr Cable money ,Crawford, Nola, Dugan , Franco, Morgan. What I’m trying say is do you a Lester pitcher or a home grown player Hamels.We all know that if we get prospect’s for Hamels Amaro will trade some off.The Organization always is in a win now mode not once did anyone from the Phillies say we’re stocking prospects for the furture.
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How are we in ‘win now’ mode when the team is 3 games away from being the worst in MLB?
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We should be looking beyond 2015. With or without Hamels, we lose a ton of games in 2015. We’ve lost a ton of Hamels’ starts this season. Not his fault, that’s the quality of support he’s got. The Phillies are not currently in prospect trading mode. That won’t happen until they have a new core at the MLB level that they think is good enough to win. We haven’t traded prospects since 2011. We aren’t in win now mode. In the off-seasons we are now in ‘pretend to be in win now mode to con some more fans into buying season tickets mode’. Season ticket sales are especially important now. Come June, the team obviously stinks and selling single game tickets becomes tough. We haven’t yet stocked a lot of prospects for the future, but that is clearly the goal. So… near term there is no replacement for Hamels and it really doesn’t matter much.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/cole-hamels-can-block-trades-to-twenty-clubs.html
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Hamels can be traded to 10 teams.The Phillies just signed Jo jo Reyes our new Ace come August until 2015 when RAJ signs Lester .nah we just noooo pitcher ready to come up .We can’t replace Hamels unless we sign a 5 pitcher next year.Were not trading him to the Nats or Braves and nobody wants to go to the Padres.So that leaves 6 teams.
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Burnett, Paps, Bastardo, Byrd and $$$ to the Orioles for Harvey, a 15-20, prospect, and maybe a major leaguer in need of a change of ballparks.
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Steven your talking about 38 million in salary. of which almost if I am not wrong, 36 is guaranteed for next year.
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What meant by now wining was that the Phillies doing a fire sale.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/trade-market-for-second-basemen-3.html read for all that what to trade Chase.
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Hamels is untouchable according to Amaro. Trade Herandez right after tonight’s game sell hi.we getting the Brewers back for sweeping us, a lot of teams have swept us but that was the first 1.
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That’s not what’s been reported. He’s available for the right price. Ruben’s not going to come out and name anyone who’s on the trading block because he’d lose any type of leverage he has.
The only guy we can be 100% of that won’t be trade is Chase Utley unless he changes his mind in the next few weeks which seems unlikely.
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According to Jayson Stark (from the Missanelli show today), the Phillies are listening hard on Cole Hamels. If they get the players they want they’ll trade him and kick in the money necessary to get those players. They’re talking to the teams his contract states he can be traded to and they’re talking to the teams that have known interest in David Price.
I see the Cardinals as the best fit in this senario. They’ve been trying to add a front line starter. In my mind I would need to get Taveras back as the center piece in any deal but even if they couldn’t there may still be a deal that could net the Philles a package worth trading Cole for. I’m not sure the front office would trade him for anything less than Taveras + especially if they have to kick in money.
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If we got Hamels for Taveras straight up. I would run through the streets of Philly butt naked… Not gonna happen. Maybe Piscotty or Ramsey and a relief arm in the minors.
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Why would we do Hamels for Taveras? Hamels is a true number 1 – he’s not replaceable unless you feel you have three potential number ones coming up the system. There’s no where to invest the money that you would save in moving Hamels anyway, and if I had my choice between Hamels and Taveras, I take Hamels every day of the week
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http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140709&content_id=83903014¬ebook_id=83903026&vkey=notebook_phi&c_id=phic here it is about Hamels. Cards are going after Peavey and Yanks are to old that leaves both LA teams that don’t care about the money . Dodgers are loaded with prospects and the have some too. Maybe get Kemp in the deal I hate too Hamels .
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/quick-hits-diamond-beckham-dodgers-phillies.html Dodgers are out of Hamels race.
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Talks heating up with Seattle re Byrd. I suspect the Mariners would part with Nick Franklin
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If Ruben were to get Franklin for Byrd that would be some sort of a coup.
Franklin, sitting behind Cano now in Seattle, is a young switchhitter with plenty of potential and pop in his bat for a middle infielder..
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