31 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #27 – Andrew Pullin

  1. Jan Hernandez. Sweet hitting SS/3B, what’s not to like. It’s weird that all of a sudden, the organization is deep in 3B prospects, from Asche at the upper end to Hernandez in rookie ball. You could even make an argument that there is still hope for Walding. It kind of makes the organization’s inability to develop a 3B in the 15 or so years between Rolen and Asche all that much more aggravating.

  2. Gotta go Pullin here. His bat intigues me as a 2nd baseman. The big thing last year was that he stuck at 2nd. Now, let’s hope his O keeps developing.

  3. Led Zeppelins. Amazing the number guys still on this list who this time last year were top 20 guys…

    I don’t think we are very good at this LOL

    1. I dunno if we’re so bad at it, isn’t that the way it’s supposed to work? Most prospects don’t end up making it, so it’s only natural that many would decline in value year-to-year, especially the guys in the 10-20 range who tend to either be fringe-y guys at the upper levels or high-risk guys at the lower levels. Then, seemingly every year there is one guy who doesn’t make the list one year who zooms all the way into the Top 10. This year it’s Altherr. Last year it was Morgan. Year before that it was Pettibone, though you could make the case that the most surprising mover on the list was Freddy Galvis who shot from #25 to #5.

      So, interesting topic of discussion for another day when the list was done: who did we completely miss on? I could see it being someone like Collier. He is getting no absolutely no love in the voting but, as this chat on Crashburn Alley points out, he was starting to turn it on at the end of last season. Given the team’s lack of CF depth I could even see a scenario (albeit it disastrous one) in which Collier impresses this spring and is in Philadelphia sometime late in the season.

      http://crashburnalley.com/2014/02/11/phillies-prospect-conversation-kiley-mcdaniel-scoutingbaseball-com/

      1. Without going into Collier too much (who I think is a Top 30 guy).

        The thing we have to remember is that a lower ranking also does not mean a player got worse. Pullin will rank much lower on my list this year vs last, I think he is better player now than he was then. But a lot of talent came into the system, and a lot of talent stepped forward this past year

        1. Agreed, that’s true too. I’m just saying volatility isn’t abnormal, the system is a funnel, not an assembly line.

          1. Very true and also fair. Personally I aim to have guys move up in rank as opposed to falling through the mine shaft. One of the reasons I don’t see the point of ranking Tocci so high.

            Also don’t like the yo-yo approach. One year Altherr isn’t top 30 now all of a sudden he is in the top 10. That is too strong a leap IMO. You asked who did we miss on? I guess you have to look at guys who were top 15 last year who are now not looking good to be top 30.

            I’m not trying to preach or even disagree or be contrarian. I’d like to put a light on over hyping or ignoring with stubbornness red flags on certain players. I’m guilty of this myself. And maybe I would like to see more weight on total body of work.

            1. Not sure why you single out Altherr (maybe you just dont like him). Your own top 20 has Dugan and Perkins in the top 10 out of nowhere but you think its wrong when it comes to Altherr. BA had Altherr in their top 10 in 2010 then dropped him and now has him back, thats how it goes with young athletes they develop at their own rate.

            2. In general if you can forecast that guys will move up, that suggests you should have them higher to begin with. It’s sort of like pricing a stock: if you expect it’s price to go up, that means it’s current price is wrong.

              Another way to put it: If ranking player A > player B means you would rather have A than B, but you expect that a year from now that you will prefer B to A, than those preferences are inconsistent.

              Of course you can expect players to move up because you expect graduations at the top, but that’s another issue.

    2. I think the volatility in these lists is caused by the strong weighting most voters place on last year’s results, which are by nature very volatile.

  4. I’m surprised that Milner gets so little love. I think he has a good chance of being a major league pitcher if he just keeps improving each year. He’s another tall skinny guy with a smooth motion who looks very good at times and just needs consistency. I like Pullin too but have Milner ahead of him.
    I’m getting excited, snow not withstanding, that spring training will be starting soon. Yay!

    1. Below average fastball and breaking ball, small frame coupled with huge second half fade (suggests he can’t handle starting workload). He was a college reliever so not a ton of surprise on the results. If he is a reliever, would you rather him or Austin Wright?

    1. And I don’t get why he is even in the conversation. Make a case for him.

      If we go on what he is now and make a reasonable projection from that, he is not a major league player, even a back up.* Steamer projects him to hit .227/.283/.338,as a major league player which looks about right to me. Essentially everything he does with the bat is below average, in some cases well below average. Contact skills quite poor, plate discipline just okay, not much power to speak of. If he was a slick fielding SS, he would STILL be a marginal prospect. Heck, Freddie Galvis IS a slick fielding SS,AND a better hitter than Collier, AND less than one year older … and still is not generally regarded (by most people) as an eventual major league regular.

      No, the case for Collier is and always has been “he has the tools to break out.” But he’s already 23 years old and, apart from some glimmers in 2012, has never really shown signs of manifesting those tools.

      *Let me expand upon the “not even a back up” comment. Unlike middle infielders and catchers, where you do have some players who are career back ups, most 4th/5th outfielders are former, potential or failed regulars. The idea that “well, this guy can field well and hit a little” is enough to make a major league 4th/5th outfielder is mostly wrong. Yes there are exceptions but not many, and I don’t see Collier with the skill set to be one of those.

      1. He’s got speed and can play center. He’s shown good patience throughout the minors, and strikeouts weren’t a big issue until last year. And of course, he had a really good August and good peripherals in July, so the arrow is pointing up.

        The lack of power is a concern.

        1. Listen, I don’t want to knock the guy, and I was even somewhat on board after 2012, but …

          He’s always been a high K guy – not HORRIBLE in that regard, but last year was about what he’s done previously (after seeming improvement in 2011-2012). And his BB rate looks okay compared to other Phillies’ prospects, but is still below average.

          By the numbers, he’s not just a non-prospect, but not even CLOSE to being a prospect. He stunk last year. And the fact that he stunk less in a SSS in August doesn’t change that.

          The only argument for him is that maybe he’s a guy who all of the sudden learns to hit in his age 23 season. And it COULD happen, I guess. It just isn’t very likely. I wonder if there is any example of an outfielder – even a center fielder – who hit that poorly in AA as a 22 year old (and “old” 22 year old) who went on to a major league career.

          1. I’m not arguing that Collier looks like a great prospect at this point–if you look above, you’ll see I was saying I thought he was likely to be left out of the Top 30–but I was suggesting that he might be a candidate to be the guy that everyone missed on. No, I certainly can’t think of a guy who had a season comparable to Collier’s who went on to a major league career, but there’s a lot of selection bias in my sample, because as you rightly point out, most guys in the majors excelled at AA–that’s how they ended up as major leaguers. I’m sure there’s a couple of counterexamples lurking out there somewhere in the bowels of Baseball Reference, but it’s going to take someone with a more encyclopedic knowledge than I to find them. But the point is, I’m sure it’s happened. It’s not likely, but that’s the whole point. By definition, the dark horse is an unlikely prospect, that’s why he’s not an (I guess) white horse.

  5. Hiciano! has a chance at double digit HRs at lakewood next year. hit 7HRs at williamsport dispite missing half the time with wrist Injury. Should have been off the board 10 picks ago

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