29 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #24 – Cameron Perkins

  1. For me it’s between Sweaney and Pullin here. I think I’m gonna go Sweaney, though. It seems some sites and people are hire on him than I expected. Obviously, they see something in him. My only question is he gonna repeat GCL or go to WPort this yr?

  2. Yoel Mecias. Missed development time aside, and that’s a big concern for me right now, his (however minimal) success last year and the wealth of positive scouting is hard to ignore.

  3. It was between Sweaney, Perkins, and Jan. Ultimately i went with Perkins off of the BA rankings. Dude can hit and he had a good yr at A+ even fighting through injuries.

    1. That BA ranking on Perkins was surprising. They seem to be basing that high ranking in part on his power showing up. Absolutely could happen, but until it does, that’s not a starting corner OF profile.

      That being said, with his hand injury last year, it may take him some time to find his power. We shouldn’t write him off in 2014 if he hits but doesn’t hit a ton of homeruns. I give the power until mid-2015 before I’m likely to completely give up on it, and in turn, Perkins’ chance to be more than a fifth OF.

  4. Next on my list were Hernandez, Perkins, Gueller, and Pullin. Going Hernandez here on tools with some performance at a young age at GCL. Thinking of him as a 3B, not a SS where it does not look like he will get many reps there.

  5. Guess I am a bit confused on whether this top 30 is to pick the prospect most likely to make it to the Phills, or the best prospect.

      1. I would add potential trade value as well, especially for higher level guys – meaning don’t discount a guy who won’t play this year for Philly because he’s blocked, if there’s a chance he’ll be moved to bring another piece to the club. That becomes more relevant around winning seasons – this club’s not likely to be trading any serious prospects right now, but a couple years ago discounting jon Singleton because Ryan Howard was likely to be your everyday 1B would have unfairly lowered his value to the club.

  6. Pullin for me. Second baseman with a good hit tool.

    I don’t get the complaints about lack of power. His .152 ISO last year would have ranked 9th out of 17 qualified 2B, well above the position’s average (.119). So he already has acceptable power for a 2B, and generally power develops late, so I don’t buy that he has no projection left.

    The low walk rate is my biggest concern, but I haven’t heard that he has a bad eye or approach, so I’m hoping last year was an outlier in this respect.

  7. Mecias here. It’s pretty sad that, by my count, we’ve only only got one healthy sure-fire starting pitcher in the Top 30, in Biddle. (I refuse to categorize MAG as “healthy” until I see him actually throw off a mound.) I realize the principle is you take the Best Player Available, but let’s hope the Phillies take some steps to address this early in next year’s draft.

    After Mecias, I think I’ll flip a coin between two interesting picks from last year’s draft, in Hernandez and Sweaney, then Collier (if you squint you can still see a potential fourth outfielder by virtue of his being able to play CF). Then I’m not sure. Think Pullin and Perkins both look like minor league inventory at this point. Canelo? I still think that Larry Greene sneaks into my personal Top 30–Matt may call it wishful thinking, but I think there’s still a year for him to turn it around.

  8. I would round out the top 31. as follows:

    24. Mecias – scouting reports are great; elbow issues typically don’t derails careers
    25. Sweaney – great scouting reports, could rocket up the list
    26. Perkins – must develop power and works walks to improve his status; otherwise he’s in AAAA/5th outfielder purgatory – this is his year to shine, if at all
    27. Hernandez – good reports, just needs to develop; blank slate
    28. Munson – I keep asking myself if I’d prefer to have him or Seth Rosin; I think Rosin might be the keeper of the two, but who knows?
    29. Pullin – could end up turning into something; intriguing
    30. Guellar – needs to gain some traction this year; where’s that vaunted arm?
    31. Hiciano – really interesting prospect – I love the combination of power and plate discipline but am of course concerned about the Ks; type of guy who could sneak into the majors as a utlity outfielderand then have a break out season in his mid to late 20s; I’m a big fan.

    1. A little more on Perkins. I saw him in the AZ fall league AS game and was surprised at how thin he was. It looked like he needed to get a lot stronger to add the power that he so desperately needs to become a corner outfield prospect. He looks like all of those guys who have great AAA seasons on the Phillies but never have that little extra needed to succeed at a low position on the defensive spectrum. When I was kid, there were a lot of players like that in the majors – back when folks thought about three things – average, home runs, and RBIs (the “Ken Reitz” years). Today, that type of player typically cannot keep a starting job or even make it to the majors. Of course, to give the folks from that era a little credit, I think they also cared more about fielding, base running and fundamentals.

    2. See, here’s my point about Larry Greene. I can see the argument about leaving him off the list in factor of someone like Hiciano or Canelo. But Gueller? If anything, he’s been an even bigger bust that LGJr., whose 2012 Williamsport numbers weren’t such a disaster. I also disagree with Munson’s inclusion in the voting: if he stays in the organization, it will be as a major league player, and if he doesn’t make the ML roster, he will most likely head back to the Dbacks. Either way, he’s most likely not going to be a factor in the Phillies minor league system next year.

      1. It’s based entirely on projection. To me, it’s harder to take a guy who just can’t hit at all and make him a player than it is to take a raw pitcher and mold him into something. Guellar probably wont turn into anything, but he’s only been in this for one full year and is said to have a lot of raw ability, so I have him hanging in the back of the top 30 just in case. The rankings are hardly a science so I understand that many will disagree.

        1. Yeah, look, I fully admit I’m mostly arguing the Greene case to make things interesting (personally, if the last spot comes down to Jiandido Tromp vs. Samuel Hiciano I’m not sure I’m going to have much to say, and will probably return to my day job tweeting as Old Hoss Radbourn). And I can certainly see the argument for writing off Greene. I was actually one of the people who saw him at camp in Clearwater last March and wrote, “holy shit, look out, Larry Greene looks like a big tub of goo.” I was down on him then and I’m down on him now. On the other hand: he wasn’t so horrendous in 2012, and if you think there’s some small percentage chance that his problems were due to discipline/conditioning issues that can be worked out, then I think there’s still some hope. Let’s put it this way: I’d be shocked if he ever puts on a major league uniform, but less shocked that an I will be if, say, some of these other guys people are voting for around here (not naming names!) have a significant big league career.

      2. If I accept the Munson argument you made then I should include Rosin on my top 30 list. I don’t have Munson on my list but Rosin would be in the low 20s.

  9. Larry Greene cannot hit the broad side of a barn . Phil’s cannot take these projects anymore they need more polished guys who can move up the system quickly a la cardinals type players

    1. The Phils drafted Cody Asche and Adam Morgan the same year as Greene. Both guys did exactly what you’re describing, except Morgan got derailed by injury. The Greene pick is going to be tied to Bradley in some people’s eyes forever, but aside from Bradley, the 4 college guys in the supplemental round picked after Greene are meh, bust, ok, bust. One of them OPSed .671 in hi-A last year, one struck out about 6/9IP in AA, and one has pitched a grand total of 74 innings since he was drafted. Ony Jace Peterson is remotely interesting, and he’s a college guy in Hi-A three years later. Yes, missing on Bradley stings, but plenty of teams higher than the Phils wish they’d have taken Bradley also.

  10. a guy who hasnt even been brought up yet, but i think is very similar to Hernandez is Trey Williams. He didnt have a great debut in the GCL, but then again neither did Sandberg. Still young being a JUCO player drafted last year who was moved off of SS, i think he played some 1st, 2nd, and 3rd after he signed, so he might have some D upside.

      1. He does have good size however, so physically is capable and will not be overmatched at the plate….unless he is another tool guy who can’t hit the curve ball.

        1. And his dad is former big leaguer Eddie Williams, so he’s got some pedigree in his favor, for whatever that’s worth. It may inflate his value in some people’s views, i.e. “he should be able to learn to do x, y, z, since it’s in his blood”, which is sometimes true and sometimes a bunch of garbage, I think.

  11. I like walding here, another Cody ashce only 6’4. He is due for a big year now that he is healthy. Definitely a top 30 prospect

    1. George, the reports were good, but he’s shown nothing except some plate discipline as a hitter. Looks like another Travis Mattair to me. And if your response to my assertion is: who? My reply would be:exactly.

  12. I looked at Lino’s stats in the Winter Leagues and was impressed. SSS aside. He’s had some trouble with A ball but I think he’ll blow through it this year. I’m thinking he’ll start in Clearwater until Knapp is ready. I think he’ll be hard to demote him by that time.

    Mecias is the only other guy that I’d put on par but the injury slides him a notch lower. I’m also going to include Buchanan in my top 30 somewhere. I can’t let a guy with a non-roster invite to ST go by without getting him on my list.

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