27 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #15 – Ken Giles

  1. I voted Grullon — young, did well, good scouting reports, premium position, I like his upside. I could have gone for Encarnacion, but he hasn’t played yet. I think both these guys deserved to be on the list a little earlier than now.

  2. I voted for Knapp yesterday and did so again today. But as many of us have observed. After about the first 5 or 6 prospects, there are about 15 prospects or so bunched together.

  3. I’m going Sandberg based purely on a hunch.Probably would’ve been a 1st rounder last year if it wasn’t for football commit. At this point it could’ve been about 5 or 6 diff guys for me.

  4. Had to vote for Grullon here. I wanted to go with Knapp but missing out on development time in the one area he needs to improve the most is a little concerning to me.

    Grullon, if his GCL performance was indicative of where he is as a hitter, is probably ahead of where everybody thought he’d be. And his defense makes him seem like a safer bet than most players at his age and level.

    1. He was #2 in yesterday’s poll. I think most people made their Giles cases last week and are not repeating them. This range seems about right for him. There is impact reliever upside, but there is a ton of risk with the control and max effort delivery.

      1. Yeah, I’ve been voting Giles but now I’m worried that the velocity has me infatuated. Can he stay healthy? How will his stuff play at the upper levels? I’m thinking about switching to Morgan for a while: big injury concern right now, but at least I’ve SEEN him do it.

          1. I think I read he may start throwing after the mid-point…maybe July or August.
            Then again, that may have been Watson i am thinking of.

          2. Right, me too. Maybe not until later, and then maybe only at lower levels, but the point is, I’ve SEEN him do it. I’ve seen the success at AAA that allows me to project his MLB ceiling.

            Take Tommy Joseph. I’m also a fan. But the fact is, he didn’t look good last season prior to the injury. Perhaps he’ll improve. He’s young. He’ll start the season at catcher where he belongs. But still, I haven’t seen it.

            I know. it’s the proximity/ceiling debate we always have with these–and I do myself with my own rankings. When I made my original comment I’d been voting Giles for three rounds and was worried that I was way off–thinking of switching. Then he wins. So be it. Getting ready to vote for young outfielders…

      2. I suppose I’ll always rank him lower than the majority here. I think his chances of being a closer are fairly slim, and his floor is not that high. I can see the argument for putting him here since his upside is higher than most remaining, it just seems to me that everything but his fastball needs a good bit of work.

        1. Reports out of the AFL is that the slider looks like it could be plus, and be that sooner rather than later. From recent interviews it also sounds like they haven’t scrapped the splitter either and he will be working with Papelbon on feel for the pitch. Having a pair of secondary offerings should help with the fastball being straight.

          That being said hard to fault ranking him lower if you don’t trust the profile.

          1. When he first came on the scene, I wasn’t hearing much that indicated he had a good secondary pitch (or two). Last year I started to hear about a possibly above average one, if it developed. If he develops a second plus pitch, that would change a lot in my mind. Although I’d still wonder about the control.

  5. I went with Giles. Someone who can touch 100 and has better control than Ryne Duren sounds like a keeper to me.

    Also, any chance of putting a countdown clock to ST on the front page? When I stumble in from the cold and snow it would be great to stare at for hours.

  6. Sandberg again.

    Matt, I want to hear more about your tweets about LGJr. in the Dominican! That’s legitimately great news. I have him as one of my sleepers and plan to start advocating for him in the 20-25 range. The way I look at it, between him, Cozens and Pujols, you’ve got three guys with legitimately exciting power potential at the lower rungs of the minor league system, with Zach Green coming in somewhere slightly behind them in terms of projection. Don’t get me wrong, Greene has definitely been a major disappointment given his draft position. But if you look at it like a venture capitalist, these are like a portfolio of four early stage companies that specialize in hitting home runs, and if one of them ends up developing into a major league slugger, the portfolio will be a success.

    1. FYI, I did read Longenhagen’s post on Greene today. So I’m fully aware that things are not looking great at the moment. But in the 20-30 range you’re usually talking about guys who have a miniscule chance of making the big leagues regardless, or of being relatively valueless if they get there (ie, Josh Zeid), so it seems worthwhile to consider a guy like Greene in comparison.

    2. With regards to the BP vs Game swing, here are a pair of videos you should watch http://philliesminorthoughts.wordpress.com/2013/11/24/larry-greenes-swing-in-two-vidoes/, it really shows what Eric was talking about.

      Out of the Dominican he was in better shape, but also the swing was starting to be more like the BP swing and he was dealing with breaking balls a bit better. That being said that was complex league ball and not against high level competition. In my mind he need to have plus plus in game power to offset the fact that he is a first baseman with limited utility elsewhere in his game. He is well out of the Top 30 for me. I have not heard a positive report on him in over a year, other than what came out of the Dominican

      1. I kind of feel about Greene the way I did last year about Aaron Altherr. I realize they are completely non-comparable situations in terms of the perceived downsides of each, but this time last year my argument about Altherr was: a guy with tiny chance of being a good major league player is more valuable than a guy who at best profiles as a AAAA pitcher/fungible major league reliever, like Kevin Brady. It appears that the comments on last year’s voting have disappeared during the redesign, so you’ll just have to take my I-told-you-so on Altherr on faith.

        Of course, in the spirit of full disclosure, I think I also advocated for Brody Colvin on suspiciously Greene-like grounds. At some point, you just have to give up on a guy.

        1. Brady’s upside wasn’t seen as just a quad-A guy though. Speaking of, is he going to be ready to pitch this year?

  7. Encarnacion for me. Power profile. Very high Int’l ranking. Seems like his spot. Grullon, Pujols, Rupp and Giles made this a tough decision.

  8. Grullon. Defense makes him a major leaguer so the bat barely needs to get there. Certainly injuries, or major holes could derail him but I really like what I think is his floor.

    Giles is okay choice, but he is only a reliever and I think he is, at best, a flash in the pan guy for a year or two then back to average. I see him as similar to Aumont, just more hope since he has been bad for less time.

    1. I’m fine with Giles here, even though I voted for Sandberg. I think there’s been a bit of an over-correction in our assessment of the value of relievers. Baseball Reference says that Ardolis Chapman was worth about 2 wins last season, while Jonathan Papelbon was worth 1.5. Not everything is quantifiable. I’d certainly prefer to have a guy in the bullpen who throws 100 MPH and has a unhittable slider. Not saying Giles will become that guy, he almost certainly won’t, but if he develops into a legit late inning weapon he has great value. I’m actually very interested to go and watch him this spring. With a good spring I think he definitely puts himself in the mix for a callup at midseason, if not before.

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