Discussing Ken Giles today got me thinking about my assumptions for the Arizona Fall League roster. In total, the Phils need to send six “domestic” guys, (with an exception I’ll mention below), but they seem to typically send seven. Only one man from below A Ball can go to the AFL from any organization. The rule also states that any man not on a AA or AAA roster by August 1 counts and an A Baller.
So while I’d been assuming Giles would go to the AFL to get in some work after an abbreviated year, I think that is pretty unlikely. In order for him and Aaron Altherr to both go, one would have had to be promoted to AA by August 1, which obviously did not happen. So now I’ll guess that they may just let Giles throw in instructs and then shut him down. Altherr makes the most sense in the AFL, as he’s up for a 40-man spot. Giles has one more year before than decision has to be made.
As someone mentioned the other day, Perci Garner now looks like an AFL candidate with a 40-man decision looming, but since he wasn’t above CLR by 8-1, he would also have to supplant Altherr. I’d call that unlikely. Garner seems more a candidate to pitch out of the bullpen in Venezuela or the Dom Rep league in the winter, or to be shut down before or after instructs, as he’s had a full year as a starter.
I still think Adam Morgan goes to the AFL as a starter, if the club truly believes he’s healthy. Beyond that, thanks to injuries, Austin Wright has some innings to work with this year. Brody Colvin fits the same bill, and he needs a 40-man spot this off-season to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Both guys also spent some time in the bullpen, so they’re likley well under their prescribed innings for the year. Mario Hollands might be in line for a spot here if he’s impressing anyone in the org with his work this year, as he’d need to be protected this off-season as well.
Aside from those, you have repeat AFL guys Tyler Knigge (who’d be vying for a 40-man spot), Jay Johnson and Kyle Simon, (both of whom have one more year until they need to be protected). Also involved there could be Justin Friend, who pitched internationally in winter 2012, and will be a Minor League FA this off-season.
For the field, I think Kelly Dugan is an easy pick. Also, perhaps an infielder like Albert Cartwright or Troy Hanzawa may be needed, depending on how toe roster shakes out with other orgs. If the Phils can manage to net themselves three outfield spots somehow, (depending on other orgs players), you could see repeat appearances from Gillies (AFL 2011) or Collier (2012), or possibly even a spot for Anthony Hewitt. As Tommy Joseph has been shut down, and DLed guys are not eligible, there is no chance he comes back. Cameron Rupp is certainly a candidate, if the org is willing to put more miles on his big body after a long season.
And here’s a darkhorse for you – since he’s from Panama, and they don’t participate in the Caribbean World Series, (the exception I mentioned above), Severino Gonzalez is eligible as an A Baller. He would also have to supplant Altherr, so likely that won’t happen, but it’s possible.
So here’s my guess – for the position players – Altherr, Dugan and Rupp. For the mound - Morgan, Wright and Colvin, plus I’ll guess Knigge, based on his contract situation. If Morgan doesn’t go, I would guess it’s Hollands.
So, what do you think? Anyone I’m missing who you think is a contender for one of these spots? Anyone you think makes more sense than my picks? Anyone you’d like to see just because?