What’s going to happen? I’m like all kinds of scared.
My biggest fear: nothing.
That was my biggest fear as well.. nothing. then as the day went on I realized that RAJ just isn’t a wartime consigliere, he has no idea how to sell. all he knows how to do is write checks — mostly in return he has gotten $hit btw but ok.. until we get a legit, forward-thinking GM we are doomed. he honestly has no idea how to fix this team, so he puts his head in the sand and prays it will get better. this is from Stark’s article today after the deadline:
The industry waited all month for the Phillies to decide whether to buy or sell. So shockingly, after an eight-game cliff dive answered that question for them, they still managed to stagger to the deadline tape without GM Ruben Amaro Jr. pulling off a single deal.
Not Michael Young. Not Carlos Ruiz. Not Papelbon. Not Lee. Not a single name on an aging, disappointing roster ended up moving on up the highway.
“In a way, I get it,” said one longtime exec. “I know Ruben is in a tough spot. People there expect a lot. So you can’t ever really sell off. But you have to listen, don’t you? If somebody will give you something for some of those guys who aren’t part of the future, you have to listen. But with some of them, they barely listened.”
Other clubs said the Phillies never seemed motivated to trade Ruiz, made minimal effort to deal Young after the Rangers (his preferred destination) said no and appeared to expend surprising effort on deals that had just about no chance of happening — for Lee and a guy who announced he wouldn’t waive his trade-veto rights, Jimmy Rollins.
“It doesn’t seem like they ever set a realistic price point for Lee,” said one NL executive. “So at that price [starting with Bogaerts for the Red Sox] and no willingness to take any of the money [about $70 million], it was a waste of time to even engage in the conversation.”
I don’t have an issue with how the deadline played out, on its face, but those comments are discouraging. The part about an unwillingness to take any of the money bothers me. Is that not what we’re a big market team for? If free agency is drying up and there are restrictions on what you can spend on amateur talent, why the heck would you not be willing to pay any of Lee’s salary?
I would agree that that is the one thing that bothers me, even though I don’t think it likely impacted this particular trade deadline in a significant way.
* That we hang onto Utley, and then extend him in the offseason.
* That Paps is either not traded, or traded for next to nothing.
* That Young is traded for next to nothing.
* That Delmon Young is still here at the end of the week.
* That trading Rollins and Lee aren’t even considered, and RAJ won’t even listen to offers.
* That Amaro is still the GM when I wake up on Thursday morning.
To quote Robin Williams; “It’s like riding a psychotic horse toward a burning stable..”
Amaro can’t control what other teams are willing to offer him. If people are offering him a bunch of crap then he shouldn’t deal guys like Utley, Rollins, or Lee. There are no obvious GOOD replacements for those guys, you don’t just deal them for the sake of getting young. The main way the Phillies will have to rebuild to respectability will take a few years of drafting. You don’t have to give up wins at the big league level for guys who aren’t going to move the needle in the future. I’m fine with dumping the Youngs and Paps for nothing, although I think Michael Young will net a Thome like return.
I predicted this weeks ago, and it already seems to be coming true, people jumping on Amaro for not getting impact, major league ready prospects for tired veterans.. No defender of Amaro am I, but the fact that he couldn’t pull off the series of miracle trades that some people around here hoped for it not a legitimate criticism of him.
For M. Young in particular, people somehow think that the Phillies should get more for him for 2 months than they gave up for a full season. Sorry, that makes no sense.
I’m not looking for miracles, or to even get a ton of value in return for guys like Young, D. Young, Ruiz, Papelbon, and Rollins, but they need to start re-stocking the system and re-building around guys like Dom, Revere, and Cole. We might be terrible for a couple of years, but that’s what you need to do sometimes (Boston, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta have all recently had down periods, but they have a plan in place and execute it accordingly.
If a guy like Garza (also a free-agent-to-be) can get a major league starter, and 2 promising prospects in a weak market, then they absolutely need to listen to what other teams are willing to part with for Lee. Don’t trade just for the sake of it, but at least see what kind of a haul he might yield.
It’s a combination terrible contracts, hideous trades, very below average FA signings (post Gillick-era), poor game-day management, and awful drafting that have left us in this disgusting mess. Utley might be my favorite Philly of all time, but we need to turn the corner, and a contract extension to an oft-injured 35 year old 2B, although very sentimental, does absolutely nothing for the franchise.
“I’m not looking for miracles, or to even get a ton of value in return for guys like Young, D. Young, Ruiz, Papelbon, and Rollins, but they need to start re-stocking the system”.
But trading those guys won’t accomplish that.
MYoung will go. I doubt anyone wants DYoung. Rollins has said he won’t OK a trade. ruiz might get you a small piece from the right team, but probably not enough to offset the pitcher mutiny that would ocurr if he was traded.
As for Papalbahn, scout know how to read radar guns and accountants can read his contract. He will get you very little at this point.
Lee and Utley shouldn’t and very likely won’t be traded unless the Phils are overwhelmed (unlikely)
I would put Papelbon on waivers in August and see if the Dodgers or some other team would claim him, and I’d let him walk for nothing. He is going to be a disaster the next two years.
Let’s put aside the fact that it would never happen.
What does that get you? Salary relief for a team that won’t approach the salary cap anyway for the remainder of Papelbon’s contract? So what?
Yes, he’s overpaid and, yes, his velocity has ticked down, but I don’t see how a 2.2 ERA with a WHIP under 1.00 portend “disaster” in the near future. He’s still an above-average closer, if the FO picks up some of his contract, he should fetcha decent return.
So trading Utley away for crap and replacing him with crap accomplishes what? Make no mistake Utley is still a very valuable player. Getting really bad really quickly is not going to help the Phillies financially or from a baseball standpoint. Doing nothing major and making a few minor moves coupled with rebuilding through the draft might get you 2nd wild card contention and a playoff lottery ticket while you wait for the next young core to surface. If Utley was blocking anyone of core player value I’d say dump him, but he’s not. Michael Young on the other hand is and he should be traded. And really this applies to any of the aging veterans on the team who are still providing decent value.
This is, at least, the realistic version of “fire sale” advocacy. But I still don’t buy it. Let’s separate this into two parts: Utley/Lee and the rest. Papelbon a few weeks ago I would have put in the first category, but no longer.
No point even discussing the other guys IMO. Some of them should go,, some of them shouldn’t, but you’re just not getting anything significant for any of them.
The other two guys are the issue here. I’ve pointed out before that I’d ironically be satisfied with a smaller package than some people around here. But what’s enough? A Garza type package? IMO no. And I don’t think either of those guys gets you meaningfully more than that. It’s easy to say that they are better players – and I think they are – but I think people under estimate Garza’s perceived value, and overestimate Utley and Lee’s perceived value. Lee is a guy who, absent the current injury and recent meh performance, would get you more than Garza. IMO under current circumstances, no. Utley is a tougher call – better than Garza, but, as a rule, starting pitchers tend to be more sought after than position players. Granted you can find a few exceptions.
Should they “see what kind of a haul [Lee] might yield?” Absolutely. And by all reports they are doing just that. My trust of Amaro is not unlimited, but I don’t think he woudl trun down a good offer. It does not look like he is getting one.
As for being “terrible” for a couple years, the WORST season for those three teams you mentioned over the past 6 years was 69 wins for Boston last year (and THAT took an extreme amount of bad luck), and none of those teams have had 2 consecutive sub .500 seasons in recent history. Heck, going back to 2008, as a group they have been over .500 in 16 of 18 seasons, this year included.. it just seems to ,me that picking up a few mediocre prospects in exchange for, not THAT kind of down period, but 3 to 4 years of the Marlins, is a poor deal.
I think you also underestimate the 2B market. Many of the contenders have hole there, and would likely pay a premium (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, LA). Sorta like we did a couple years ago when a right-handed bat named Pence was overpaid for with our best hitting and pitching prospect.
Getting prospects doesn’t help ticket sales, concessions, or retail near term, but 1-3 terrible years won’t kill the franchise. We’re the losingest franchise in MLB history, and I’ve been a die-hard fan since 1986. If after all of the vomit I’ve seen take the field between then and now hasn’t caused the franchise to fold or move then a 2-4 year re-build isn’t going to sink the ship. I’m 1,000% that if the team is reconstructed the right way then all of that will come back and then some.
Get what we can by unloading the broken down players, and at the end of the season send RAJ to the unemployment line. Do the due dilligence, and get someone who looks at scouting, trends, sabremetrics….not the back of a guy’s baseball card.
Maybe I do. But I think your invocation of the Pence deal is misplaced, or even helps prove my point. One, if was for a guy with 2 1/2 years of control, not 2 months. But more to the point, IT WAS A MASSIVE OVERPAY WHICH WAS RECOGNIZED AS SUCH AT THE TIME.
Look, the logic of the optimists regarding trade value, at the end of the day, are making two arguments: that a massive overpay in terms of straight up value is justified by the chance to win it all, and second, that teams have made bad deals in the past, so it’s possible. Neither argument gets you all that far. As for the first, it’s obviously true to an extent, but (some few unwise exceptions to the contrary) teams are not willing to give up a top prospect for a guy who improves their chances only slightly. And ANY pick up, by itself, adds only slightly to the chances of winning it all.
As for the second argument, the vast majority of rentals don’t get you much, and the rules (and culture to some extent) have changed, making those kind of deals even less appealing. You don’t go to Vegas EXPECTING to win the big jackpot.
I wonder what some advocates of a “fore sale” would say if, in fact, the Phliies went in that direction. Not saying this applies to you so much, with at least somewhat more realistic expectations about return, but a lot of the people hoping for a fire sale would probably IMO roast the team for the kind of deals that are actually available. A Garza like return for Utley/Lee, and much lesser returns for the other guys, would be DEEPLY unpopular, even among the “fire sale” advocates.
Let me turn that into a question – who around here would be satisfied with a Garza type package for Lee or utley?
Amen, Amen. Agree on each and every comment.
Same as Dylan.
I dont not agree but I think this is what happens.
Young is traded
Utley is extended
Lee goes for a package that while better than the (Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez) mind blower, is not what it should be.
Charlie continues on until his contract is not renewed in the offseason
Ruben states publically that nobody knows anything except for him..
Utley plays 68 games next year but everyone is soooooooooo happy because he can retire a Phillie!!!! yayyy!!!!!
Maikel Franco is stil awesome…
Astros win the 2017 World Series behind Villar, Singleton, Sanatana, and Cosart.
Lee isn’t going.
Let me expand upon my other post for a second. For a whole host of reasons, I don’t see this trade deadline as a big opportunity. And I’m fine with re-signing Utley, for reasons already beaten into the ground.
BUT that doesn’t mean I’m fine with the direction of the franchise. Relative inaction may be the right move at this particular moment in time, BUT down the road Amaro needs a plan, and the franchise needs a change of direction.
I guess ultimately my biggest fear is that that won’t happen.
I think that my biggest fears have been alleviated by the recent slump. They are not going to be buyers now, and that was my biggest fear.
There’s not much left. A full out fire sale would be bad, but that isn’t happening. “Nothing” is not a big fear; while there are some moves I think they should make, as I’ve made very clear, I don’t see the returns from any of the moves being overwhelming. So even, say, failing to trade M. Young (who can block a trade in any event) isn’t the end of the world.
Of course that assumes we’re talking about the next 3 days. In the off season, there’s plenty of scope for mistakes. I guess my biggest fear there would be a bad FA signing – overpaying and losing a pick for a veteran well past his peak.
This seems right to me. The worst long-term outcome for this team was trading top ten guys (org) guys for a reliever or 4th outfielder.
It would be nice to get blue chip prospects back this week, but if the Phillies had pieces that were worth blue chip prospects, they wouldn’t have almost the same record as the Chicago Cubs. Teams might be interested in Michael Young, but not enough to give up Bogarts or Castellanos. Disappointment with the organization on that front is misplaced.
Agreed – Young might net you a young big league role player and a low-level guy with some upside but big flaws. Maybe. Like if someone offered you a pre-injury Mike Stutes kind of guy – no one in our system currently comps to what I am envisioning, but someone with a bit of big league success but not back-end upside. Then add on a present day Cameron Perkins kind of guy – a recent college bat who can hit but maybe not for enough power to be a regular.
Or how about a AAA guy with a 4th OF ceiling and a low-level P who looks like he will never be a starter. Like a slightly-above-Gillies level guy plus a Ryan O’Sullivan or something like that. That’s the kind of package I would expect for Michael Young. Much more than that kind of value, to me, seems unlikely.
I was hoping for Drake Britton.
I actually think there are more interesting lower level guys in the Orioles farm system
I think he gets you somebody like Zach Green, Gueller, or Hernandez, if you pay his salary for the rest of the season.
Well the Tigers just pulled the trigger on Veras who was closing for the Astros. Those of us that had a prayer we could land Castellano’s or even Garcia for Papelbon can take that off the table completely. Not that it was possible to begin with but I had hope.
The club house seems toxic right now. Papelbons comments were brutally honest and Jimmy is being Jimmy again talking about how he won’t waive a no trade clause because he wants to etch more Phillies history.
Why blame Rollins for not waiving his 10-5 rights? He’s earned the right to void trades.
JimMe, JimMe, JimMe.
I’m not blaming Jimmy. I like Jimmy a lot for who he unabashedly is but he doesn’t work on a bad team and for him to say he is more concerned about personal Phillies records is not really the right thing to say. IMO
Again I like Jimmy hands down the best SS in Phillies history but if we are being honest he is also not the guy you point to and say to your son you should emulate him.
Wait, so if I read this right, you would tell your son: “You know, I like the town we live in, I like our house, I like my coworkers–but the company’s going through a bit of a rough patch right now, so I’m going to let them transfer my position to a company in some undetermined place, for no discernible benefit to myself, even though I worked long and hard to put myself in a position to dictate my own destiny.” You, sir, are a model worker.
I always find it funny that people think baseball players should make career decisions based on what’s good for their bosses or the fans. Who among us lives like that?
Oh wait….he is getting compensated at the VP level. And it is a 2, maybe 3 month job duty, then there is a 4 month break.
Oh please, give me a break!
What kind of liberal apologist are you?
Its baseball…there is no whining in baseball!
These are the dumbest posts. I’m sorry but if you were half as good at anything as Jimmy Rollins is at baseball maybe you’d be a lot more successful in your own life.
Last time I checked, the guys who get paid the most money in corporations aren’t notably selfless either. Whining is an indelible part of baseball, just as it is part of every facet of American life.
By the way, DMAR I know you said you really don’t blame him. I’m responding to the general “Jimmy-is-selfish” sentiment more than your comment in particular.
I get it but let’s remember he didn’t say I want to stay because I love this city and I’m rooted in this city, my kids go to school in this city and I believe the FO has a plan to turn this thing around. He didn’t say I love my team mates. He clearly said I want to compile more stats as a Phillie. Not as a baseball player but as a Phillie.
I don’t understand why its such a big deal to say he is selfish, he is clearly and has always been but not in a bad way. He shows up every night and he plays and at a very high level. So let’s put the entire truth on the table and not be ashamed of it.
I respect your point of view ACA but Jimmy clearly does not care about winning right now as much as he cares about other things. That’s not good!
Eleven years after watching Scott Rolen whine his way out of Philadelphia, I can’t get mad at a guy who would refuse a trade out of town. It surprises me to see negativity directed at Jimmy for that kind of dedication.
that was my fear, too.
i’m hoping m. young is traded so we get a chance to see what cody asche can do – not because of any return the team might get.
The Phillies are seeing if Ruf is a platoon for Howard, career Minor Leaguer or Trade Bait. They need to do the same thing with Asche, so Michael Young has to go, for whatever they can get. Don’t need a closer like Papelbon because the rest of the Pen is awful, so he will be traded. With upcoming drug suspensions, maybe D Young can be moved. Hopefully Ruf and Asche are usable, and the Phils trade for depth, especially outfield and bullpen. Get the process started now. Good Luck.
I agree with Dylan. Doing nothing scares me the most. The Phillies need to restock the system and even if they get a 4th OF back it is better than watching Mayberry wander around the OF.
I fear we end up with something like Ematusko said.
Utley should go because I believe next year he breaks down for good. This year is about showing he can stay healthy and get that retirement contract. Resigning him blocks Galvis and Hernandez or acquiring a younger free agent.
If Rollins wants to decline a trade and jog out grounders then as a GM you need to call him into the office for a very frank discussion about his role on the team. Guys like that need to be leaders and if he is not willing to be a leader then they should look at their options which may include benching him. Charlie did that for a game last year when he did not run out ground balls.
I would sell and get what I could for Lee, Paps, Young, and Utley. Give me some additional cash in the offseason to play the free agent and trade markets. We have way too much salary concentrated in too few guys to let the trade deadline pass doing nothing.
If we had to eat $10 million per year of Howard’s contract I would consider moving him as well and let Ruf have a season at first. Given that Ruf will be under his first contract and arbitration we very well might make out ahead.
The team needs a shakeup because the run for this core is over and I don’t want to saddle Ryno with this baggage.
Even apart fromt he fact that I’m neglecting work, I should ignore the predictable but misguided fore sale calls, but one last comment and then I am off for at least 6 hours:
“Resigning him blocks Galvis and Hernandez or acquiring a younger free agent.”
Blocking two probable reserve types is not a big deal. (If Galvis develops into more, it will be as a SS.) Who is this mythical younger FA? He does not exist.
“If we had to eat $10 million per year of Howard’s contract I would consider moving him as well ”
If we ate ALL of the contract, we MIGHT be able to give him away for nothing.
It is very clear that they should have cleaned house at last years deadline, they could have moved Lee and Pap last year, now just Lee. Next year a resigned Utley as well as an injured or less effective Lee could join Howard and Pap as additional untradeable contracts. The Phillies need to been willing to take a step back
If Cliff Lee had been traded last year, it likely would have been for a package centered around Mike Olt. Just a reminder of how risky trading for prospects can be.
Howard- unmoveable regardless of how much of the contract is absorbed.
Papalban- pretty much untradeable unless you pay half his contract, and even then the return would be small
Utley blocking Galvis and Hernandez? They really don’t project to be anything more than average major league starters (if that) so that is actually a positive reason to re-sign Utley. Not sure what younger 2B you are hoping they sign….
I wouldn’t worry so mucg about salary. The Phils have plenty of money and will have even more with the new TV contract. With the list of quality FAs dwindling each year, they are very likely to have more money than smart places to spend it in the coming years.
They will have a lot of money from the new TV deal but this is not a team that spends into the luxury tax area. Under the new CBA being a luxury tax team is very cost prohibitive and even the Yankees are trying to get under that number. While we would like them to have unlimited pockets the reality is something quite different. Chances are their budget will be in the $160-170 million range (close to the last two years) and with $104.5 million committed to six players it limits our options for 2014 and the future.
There are no expensive FAs that the team will or should be in the market for next year. Probably true the year after as well. 55 million (and they can and will if needed go higher without exceeding the cap) for the remaining players, many of whom are going to be at or near the major league minimum, is plenty.
That’s one of the things that gets me about the current debate – if you really think the team needs to trade away all of it’s expensive veterans, the LAST thing you would want to do is become serious players in next years FA market. Give away expensive, over paid veterans so you can sign other expensive, overpaid veterans, AND lose draft choices in the process? Makes no sense. At least the people advocating going into pure rebuilding mode are making a logically consistent argument.
Okay, I violated my 6 hour rule. BAck to work.
You better get back to work..who are you billing by the way?
First, I still am not sure what FAs you want to hand out big contracts to. I personally don’t see any that likely wouldn’t require a “worse” contract then the one you are trading. Secondly, the tax is going up to $189M next year. Plus, the Phillies’ revenues have recentlyallowed them to spend right about th eabmount of the tax threshold. We don’t know what they intend to do when their revenues allow to spend in excess amount on salaries.
First of all, Mayberry is a 4th OF. He’s only playing because Revere got hurt. So you want the Phillies to trade for a 4th OF so you don’t have to see Mayberry? How does that make sense?
I think the team has given up. Crap happens when you start giving up. You get large run scoring innings where no one can get anybody out. You get zero comebacks. Early leads disappear in a blink of an eye. One mistake leads to a second and a third. Let’s call it quicksand. The Phils are spiralling out of control.
What should be done? Admit that the season is over. it shouldn’t be but I don’t see any fight in this club. Any package presented for Utley should be weighed against a possible Comp. pick. You can still sign him but weigh the trade options against that Comp. pick. No one stays in one place forever anymore. Utley is still a class act and should be treated accordingly. Lee has to stay. If they want to have a shot at anything next year, you build around Lee. Hamels is in the 1st year of his contract. It seems, although I can’t prove it and someone will disprove it, when the big money comes a player seems to relax. Relaxing is never good. Hopefully, next year he gets mad and then gets even with the other teams in the league. That’s two #1s. Amaro has to get a bat who comes up big in big situations. I think it will be a FA or trade in the off-season..
I don’t think crap happened because the team gave up. This crap began when the team was at its brightest point in months. The team had just come off its best play of the season going into this road trip. If anything, crap happened because the team started to think of themselves as back in the hunt and locked up/wilted under the pressure. It is like the spurts we have seen from the team after we sell at the trade deadline. The pressure is totally gone and play vastly improves. Think back 2-3 weeks. The season was looking lost then and then the Phillies started playing quite well. Perhaps they scared themselves. Everybody gets tense, tries to do too much, and makes mistakes.
injuries to revere and brown were a big blow to offense as well.
And, boy oh boy, is Detroit good. It’s hard to believe they were shut out in the last two WS in which they played. This is such a good, well-rounded, great hitting team with excellent starting pitching.
I think this is the larger factor. Revere was one of our best offensive players for a month and a half before he got hurt.
Revere was the key loss a few weeks back….actually more so then the Howard loss in my humble opinion.
If you had made that statement in April ,you would of booed off the state. But true Brown is the heart of the team
C: See what you can get for Ruiz. I don’t know what they’d have to offer him at the end of the year to get a DP if he leaves, but I’d drive a hard bargain for him since they’re a year away from seeing if Joseph can play, Valle has regressed, and Lino may be 4-5 years away.
1B: Obviously Howard’s not going anywhere. But he’s no longer going to be counted on. Ruf is up here to stay and is going to be either our starting LF and going to be Howard insurance.
2b: Keep Chase. Give him a St Louis Beltran type contract. Hernandez is now your number 1 backup. He provides more pop than Galvis does.
SS: Rollins: Well, Jimmy’s got some personal goals he needs to satisfy before he leaves. Jimmy Gon Get His…
3b: Mike Young. Guy’s a pro, and has been great for us. But no need to keep Asche wasting awy. He goes.
LF: Dom Brown: Stays.
CF: Revere: Stays. I’d keep Mayberry too. He can play all 3 OF positions, and 1b. He’s a jack of all trades who is usefull when he’s not counted on for 500 ABs.
RF: I’ve never actually hated a Phillie as much as I have Delmon Young. Just cut him. I don’t even see the value in holding on to him for the season if no one is stupid enough to trade for him. This is a horrible horrible black eye on Ruben’s talent evaluation. This has to be a major upgrade next year. Like Pence-level.
Lee: Stays. We CAN’T trade Lee if we have any plans to contend next year. And we have to contend with that TV contract on the line. Also, think back to what RAJ promised Hamels last year when he signed. If he blows up the team after promising Hamels that the Phils will build to contend every year and then goes and rebuilds in Y1 of Hamels contract. How will we get any FA’s to come to Philly in the future.
Kendrick: I’d trade him if it netted us a major league level reliever (of which we have exactly 2 in our bullpen right now), and a Top 10-15 organizations procpect.
Pettipone: Same boat as Kendrick. Only trade it if someone overpays or if it fills an immediate 2013-2104 hole. He can be a 4-5 and cheap.
Lannan: Ambivalent. Stay or go. I don’t know what we’d get for him.
Halladay: If he came back on an incentive laden K. I’d welcome him back with open arms.
Triple A Dregs: Diekman/Aumont/DeFratus/Rameriz: You need to send them all down, and hope one of them figures out how to dominate in Triple A, which none of them have done yet. All 4 have very live arms, but DeFratus is the most major league ready in my opinion. The other 3 need either figure Triple A out or get on with their lives as backend bullpen filler.
Setup Man: Bastardo, keep him. He has (slim) closer potential, but he’s been pretty good in the 8th, and he’s comfortable there.
Papelbon: I’m done with this jackass. Ship him off. After those comments, he’s toxic. Me First Attitude came out on display on Sunday.
“Jimmy Gon Get His”
I guarantee that if Chase Utley were asked about a trade and said he wouldn’t waive a no trade clause, this entire city would clap him on the back for being a loyal gamer. And they certainly wouldn’t use racist dialect in their comments about him. It’s the last line I had to read in this post.
Lee for Kemp anyone?
Heck no IMO
It’s funny you mention Kemp. Kemp is having a terrible year but he has a world of ability. If the Phillies are going to get better, they are going to have to take some chances. Now, I can’t speak to Kemp’s personal conduct and approach (it’s been mixed in the past), but he is having a horrible year, he’s got a huge contract, but he also has elite ability.
So why is that relevant? If I’m the Phillies and I want to do a reboot, Kemp is the type of player who might interest me. I might trade someone like Kyle Kendrick and a top 5-10 prospect (Roman Quinn?) to the Dodgers for Kemp and some salary relief. Kendrick has the most value he has and will likely ever have, if Gonzalez is the real deal they can replace Kendrick and Kemp’s value is depressed. And, sure, the Phillies will take on salary, but that’s not their biggest issue – their biggest issue is a hitting deficiency and, man, Kemp could really help with that and right away.
In any event, I’m shopping I definitely try to get value for the following players:
M. Young – as good as gone
D. Young – to anyone who wants him (not sure there is anyone)
A. Bastardo – statistical numbers do not tell the full story – he’s okay but he’s not as good as his historical numbers, which make him look like a dominating strikeout pitcher – which he is not. But you need good value to move him because the team is short on quality relievers (staggering given the arms who are competing – but that’s all they are right now, arms).
Kendrick – would be the guy I’d try to move most if the offer is right. Has value and has a future – would be enormously valuable to a contender with subpar pitching and good hitting. Could pick up great value and could probably be replaced with internal options (Gonzalez, Pettibone – next year, Martin).
Ruiz – catcher with great postseason experience who can really handle a staff – should have some value. Might get a Kelly Dugan level prospect for him.
Howard – yeah right – nobody wants him
Papelbon – I don’t think anyone wants him either as his FB is going and he’s kind of a selfish jerk (in terms of personality, I think Papelbon has channeled Billy Wagner). If we get a low level prospect and eat $3 million of salary a year going forward, I’d be great with that
Lee – I’d do what Ruben is doing. I’d listen but no deal unless it’s so good that I literally can’t say no
Utley – I agree we should keep him – remember, the goal also is to keep fans in the stands. He’s great and is the face of the franchise, as Chipper Jones was for Atlanta.
Kemp in LF, Revere in CF and Brown in RF in 2014. Liking the idea.
So, let’s see
Kratz or FA catcher
Not a world beater line-up, but it would probably be middle of the pack and plenty good if the pitching is in order – a team that very well could compete for a second WC spot. But to make this work, the Phils will need some salary relief on the Kemp contract.
I don’t see Kendrick + Quinn enough to reel in Kemp, especially if you’re asking the Dodgers to kick in money. I’m not sure we should want Kemp anyway although it would be an intriguing risk.
I’d throw Aumont in that mix too – maybe they can figure him out.
But the issue is less Kemp than it is trading Kendrick now – he’s the guy for whom you can get the most value while giving up the least IMHO. Some contender must have the need for a sold mid-rotation starter.
Catch forward your resume to David Montgomery for the soon-to-be open GM position.
You have five-year plans, you believe in walks and you have PhuturePhillies experience in sabermetric analysis work. Plus the fact, you can do away with the counsel department and handle the contracts yourself. Win-win for everyone.
LOL!!! I’m certainly no sabermetric whiz, but, sadly, I probably am more attuned to it than Ruben is. And, gosh, I would hope and think every good baseball organization has some type of five year plan. Prospects develop so slowly that you have to see the big picture and plan over long periods of time.
I like the idea and the creativity but I think the only way that is even considered by the dodgers is if you take the whole salary. Another possible candidate to do a deal like that with is the Rockies for Tulo.
it’s risky you are talking about two guys that are hurt much more than they are healthy.
I am not sure the Dodgers make that deal since they are in first place and looking towards the playoffs.
I think Lee is goner and my guess is the Red Sox are the destination … if so who hangs up first …
Lee, Ashee, Giles (Phils send 10mil in cash) for Middlebrooks & Bradely Jr.
I would do that, so I’m guessing the Red Sox
Agreed now that I think about Probably more like Lee for Middlebrooks and lower level prospects gets it done which I would have to think long and hard if I’m the Phils.
I think I’d keep Lee for now rather than move him for an iffy 3B with a “balky” back already when we have Asche and Franco. That’s really not much of a return for an ace pitcher.
I’d probably rather have Bradley and Cecchini and a pitcher than Middlebrooks although with Revere and Asche and Franco it’s a little redundant. We could possibly use them as assets though.
I want Webster also.
My biggest fear was that they would be buyers so the losing streak put that to bed. Now we have to move on.
- Utley should only be signed to a 2 year deal with a games played option for a 3rd year. I wouldn’t guarantee a 3rd year at this time.
- Lee should only be traded if we can get back a bat that can play RF and bat 3rd. The number of teams that want Lee and have what we need are few so I don’t expect a trade. I would bend my thinking if the Orioles lose their mind and offer up Bundy however.
- M Young should be gone by the deadline although I was hoping to see Asche’s debut tomorrow night and that looks unlikely. I expect a solid B pitching prospect in AA and a C hitting prospect in A ball in a return similar to Thome’s.
- Give D Young to an American league team for a bag of balls
- Chooch goes for two C prospects in A ball
- I’m hoping they can kick in lots of money and trade Pap for two B prospects although trading partners for him are dwindling
- What would be the downside of letting Cesar learn CF in the majors until Revere is ready? I’m tired of watching Mayberry swing, or check swing, at the slider away from the righty
- Lastly, I would fire Dubee. All these young pitchers and not one of them has improved. I’d let Charlie stay because what’s the point but I would give another guy a chance to make a difference.
I’m not a Dubee apologist, but I think the minor league pitching instruction must be pretty bad. These guys are generally doing horrible at AAA – worse than they did last year. That’s bizarre. He’s another bizarre thing – with all of those good arms, you’d think at least one or two of them would be really good, just by sheer luck. It boggles the mind that they are ALL screwing up and don’t apear to be making any progress. But it’s hard to blame Dubee as it is difficult to learn at the major league level.
What the heck are you talking about? Martin has been wild his whole career. Morgan had a shoulder injury he’s still trying to come-back from and we really havent had any other solid prospects reach AAA. I’d say the opposite is true they are churning out major leaguers out of the likes of Kendrick Happ Worley and Pettibone. That’s actually pretty good.
I’m not sure who you are referring to, but my comment was actually pretty narrow. I am concerned with the pitching instruction THIS YEAR at AAA (although Martin has definitely improved, I’ll give him that). DeFratus, Diekman, Aumont, Rosenberg and Cloyd have all seriously regressed this year at AAA – it’s significant and noticeable. My comments don’t relate to Dubee. I think Dubee, while he’s a cantankerous bastard, is a pretty decent pitching coach. While is probably not one of the elite pitching coaches in the league, many pitchers have improved steadily under his guidance, including Kendrick and Madson. I also think he tries to work to the pitchers’ strengths – he doesn’t have a particular agenda he tries to foist on each pitcher, although he is a change-up enthusiast (and good teacher of that pitch, which was/is a plus pitch for both Kendrick and Madson).
Allentown changed pitching coaches this year. The old Allentown pitching coach is now the new bullpen coach in Philly.
Yeah, that’s part of the issue – the best instruction is in Philly, but it’s hard to teach guys at the big league level. Ray Burris is at AAA – not sure what the problem is (assuming there is a problem).
Only 16 more consecutive losses, fellas and a new National League record is established!
braves also acquired scott downs to buttress their already amazingly good bullpen.
latest i saw on mlbtraderumors.com is that the phils are agressively shopping multiple players, including m. young. not utley, however.
I remember the buzz last year, when everyone wanted to trade Hamels for Olt. Glad that one didn’t happen!
Well it wasn’t just for Olt. It was Olt, Martin Perez(SP), Leonys Martin(CF) and another lower level guy probably at low-A or High-A (I was interested in Roughed Odor-SS/2B).
The thing to keep in mind about Olt this year he got hit in the head and had vision problems.
Olt was hit in the head at winter ball in November.
Revisionist history as they were looking for a package that included much more than just Olt and Olt will still end up being a solid pro.
Still probably a bad deal though considering Hamels age and pedigree… #1 pitchers > Boarderline Blue Chip Prospect
Papelbon wants the Red Sox but the Redsox dont want him. REALIZE IT PAP YOURE A SHADOW OF YOURSELF. You didnt want to sign here for this, well we signed you to be a 3 win reliever. Now his contract is an albatross and by the time it expires his fastball may rival Jamie Moyers,
Paps says he thinks the Phillies need to ‘blow up the team’ like the Sox did a few years ago. Does anyone have an Iraqi bomb-vest for him to use?
Im sure the Phillies are asking for Boegarts and Barnes for Lee. The rightfully should be.
An Omar Infante FA signing this off-season will start to solve some problems. Assuming 2nd base is open for him.
The Phils are re-signing Utley, so no only other acceptable place for Infante is 3rd, but the Phils are deep there. I don’t see this happening.
Here’s a question… so we all know the scouting reports on Franco are iffy, what if they had come back fantastic across the board, based on performance and good scouting reports, does that make him a top 10 prospect vs top 50?
I think it probably does.
Probably and if not, damned close. Probably no lower than 10-20.
latest from mlbtraderumors.com:
Phillies third baseman Michael Young is open to a deal to just about any contender. Stark sees the Yankees as the best fit, with the Orioles still interested. Talking to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki about waiving his no-trade clause, Young said, “I don’t know. The first thing I want to do is talk to the Phillies about that.”
The Phillies have shown very little inclination to move catcher Carlos Ruiz, surprisingly. And while they’d like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon, their unwillingness to assume some of his contract is likely to prevent a deal. Papelbon is owed at least $30MM through 2015.
The Phils have quietly been asking potentially interested teams about shortstop Jimmy Rollins, which would be a long shot even if Rollins wasn’t likely to block a deal.
It’s just speculation, but Stark says some people have wondered if the Dodgers should be open to trading center fielder Matt Kemp.
Meanwhile, Josh Zeid just got called up by the Astros… so they’ve got Cosart, Villar, and Zeid in the bigs now. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out…
Give Ed Wade a cigar for a job well done.
Hey Rube, you got a light?
I never understood all of the hate a lot of you here have for amaro. The significantly bad moves he’s made are the Howard contract, papelbon contract, pence trade and the lee trade to the mariners, and most of these can be justified.
Howard would’ve gotten the money the phillies gave him on the open market had the phillies not signed him. It’s easy to blame amaro in hindsight but at the time, the deal wasn’t that outrageous considering the context. Papelbon was dumb but the phillies needed a closer at the time and papelbon was a legit top closer then. The pence trade was a big overpay but at that time the phillies needed another bat. No one can say that the phillies shouldn’t have won the world series that year after getting pence. Finally, the lee trade was stupid but amaro ultimately got him back.
Amaro made moves that made the Phillies one of the best teams in baseball over the last 5 years. I understand that while doing so he may have sacrificed some farm talent but sometimes that’s necessary.
Well, Howard definitely wouldn’t have gotten five years, $125 million, in an offseason that began with him lying crumpled in a heap with a blown Achilles. But that’s sort of the definition of hindsight. I agree with you that there are justifications for his moves, just like there are justifications for most human decisions, even the really wrong ones. For instance, as bad as Howard has been, most of those who now attack the extension were arguing at the time that Amaro should have avoided the extension so the team could have money free to go after Fielder or Pujols. Both of those guys got close to twice as many years and dollars. The Pujols deal is already viewed as one of the worst contracts in baseball history. Fielder has produced, but the Tigers are staring at an awful long commitment. It’s entirely possible that, from a strictly actuarial point of view, the Howard deal may turn out to be the least disastrous of the three, simply because it’s much shorter. That doesn’t mean it was smart. It just means it beats the alternatives Howard’s critics preferred–which the critics seem to have conveniently forgotten.
Without the contract, Howard likely doesn’t end the season crumpled in a heap. There is speculation that the steroid injections to his heel contributed to the blown out Achilles and certain knowledge that he was playing in a lot of pain. I don’t think he takes that injury risk without the contractual guarantee. It was still an awful contract.
Well, maybe not, but as long as we’re playing the counterfactual game, I’m not sure going on the DL at the end of that season (which looked like for all the world like it was going to end with another World Series) would have been such a great move for Howard. Players heading into free agency generally want to show that they can perform on the biggest stage.
My favorite version of this game is: what if Michael Martinez (of all people) doesn’t make that great running catch on Chipper Jones’ fly ball to CF in the bottom of the 10th in the last game of the 2011 season? If the ball gets to the wall, Michael Bourn scores easily, the Braves win the game, and they go into a one-game playoff with the Cards. At the very least, it screws up the Cardinals playoff rotation. At most, maybe the Braves beat the Cards the next night, the Phillies end up playing another team in the first round, and …
Well, the rest is not history.
In defense of at least some of Amaro’s critics, I think a lot of them were against all of those moves you mentioned when they were made. I was against them all except the Lee trade, which I assumed was something he was told he had to do. That’s not even to say I was right and he was wrong, but just that it’s not a matter of looking back after the moves didn’t pan out and criticizing them.
I LOVE that Amaro is willing and able pull off huge moves like signing Cliff Lee out from under the Yankees and Rangers. It must take some kind of skill to navigate your ownership, the player, to beat out every other team, etc. I think in arguing about whether or not he should have made any given move, we may sometimes forget that it’s not necessarily the case that every GM would be able to put themselves on the line like that, let alone actually succeed in pulling them off. That aspect of him has led to some of my favorite moments and seasons in Philadelphia sports in my lifetime. What bothers me most about him, though, are the hints he’s given about his overall philosophy regarding building a team and valuing players. I think his refusal to incorporate some of the basic modern analytics that other good teams are using into his thinking puts him at a possibly insurmountable disadvantage relative to other GMs. The competition is too stiff these days to leave any useful tools on the table. He is just awesome at getting the big deals done, but moves like signing the Youngs, thinking we needed Hunter Pence at such a huge cost, etc. leave me with no confidence that he will be able to do the unspectacular things that are necessary to keep the team competitive.
All that said, I’m far from his biggest critic and I definitely don’t hate him — I’m just not confident in his ability to revive this team.
The Howard deal and the Pence deal are not defensible on any terms.
Howard, if healthy, would have gotten probably about 3/45. Pre-2012, even setting aside the injury, he was not in the same league as Pujols of Fielder. But if someone would have signed him for more, LET THEM. On a ratio basis (value per dollar) he is certainly the worst 9 figure deal in baseball history.
I can understand why people who think that Lee should get a Bogaerts level player would also defend the Pence deal, but in the real world that was one of the worst deals of the decade. Singleton ALONE straight up would have been a horrible overpay.
There’s much more as well. Given him credit for the “past 5 years” is a joke. The BEST thing you can say for him is that he presided over 3 good years. But he inherited a WS champion team. In no meaningful sense did he “build” those teams.
You’re out of your mind if you think Howard would’ve gotten 3 years/45 million. You’re talking about a former MVP who, at the time, consistently gave you 40+ homers and 120+ RBIs, at that time he was considered top tier.
The phillies did need a legit bat. Did they give up a lot for pence? Yeah, but that bat made them front runners for the world series and sparked an offense that was at the time anemic. Pence also had multiple protected years left on his contract and looked like he would solidify right field for the long term.
The Phillies didn’t need another bat when they got Pence. They were en route to being a 100 win team and Mayberry was hitting up a storm at the time. They certainly didn’t need Pence for the regular season and he was a total playoff bust. One of the reasons it was such a horrendous trade, apart from giving up Singleton, Santana, and Cosart, is that it was wholly unnecessary.
allentown, do you share your screen name with someone else?
J/K, I do Understand how you reconcile this with your defenses of Amaro, but it is funny on its face.
I do not.
I don’t think these moves were all attributable to Amaro. Gillick was the one that put the core in place.
Amaro did a decent job of trying to keep the team at the top but a lot of the time the best moves are not going out and getting the best player. It is getting the best fit for your team. People often misconstrue the two.
Not to pick nits, but if anybody is responsible for the vast majority of the core players on this recent run, it was Ed Wade. Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Burrell, Kendrick, etc. were all drafted under his watch.
You can ridicule fan trade proposals all you want, but standing pat gets you nowhere and we’re already there and it sucks. This deadline is critical to the next 3-4 years of this ballclub. Several aggressive moves could turn this club around by 2015…Every other team in this division has enough young talent to plant us firmly in the basement for the better part of the decade. Its time to take that step back, because others in our division are taking steps forward regardless what we do. Even the most casual fans see the need to “blow this team up”.
The only way you can turn this team around is building a new core? Since no one wants to give up any good prospects it’s almost impossible to do it through trade. With the right amount of small moves and some luck the Phillies could probably contend for a wild card spot and hence gain a Series lottery ticket, all while drafting and developing their next core. Lee is the only one who is being talked about as someone who will bring any kind of decent return and clubs are balking at it. The fan proposals get ridiculed because they either hinge on ridiculous returns for our guys or severely overrate guys like Galvis and Hernandez (both of who couldn’t dream of replacing the value of Rollins or Utley even in their decline phase). Or, even more ridiculous, people want to splurge during FA for more veterans that aren’t as good as the ones we have.
It depends how long the new ‘core’ needs to be good for. We got Lee and Halladay in trades for multiple years. They weren’t young, but weren’t ancient either. The heyday of the faded Phillies core was really only 4 years. You might well trade for 4 fairly prime years of an expensive star that an impoverished team wants to unload. That route just strips the farm and recycles us into the same problem in a few years, though.
I don’t know that the trade deadline is CRITICAL. That depends on the prospects/offers you get and what they become. See Cliff Lee trade to Seattle, it didn’t set up a damned thing for the Phillies.
That wasn’t a trade, it was a salary dump to be able to pay Halladay.
If the rest of the league now has enough young talent to plant us firmly in the basement for the better part of the next decade, then it will be very hard to turn this team around by 2015 to take the NL East, won’t it? I don’t think what we have for trade gets us there by 2015. You are flopping between wild optimism and wild pessimism in the same paragraph.
No I certainly don’t think they could win the division by 2015, regardless of what they do, but they definitely won’t standing still. I just think they could be watchable by 2015.
Why isn’t Kendrick discussed more as a possible trade candidate? He’s pitching better than Bud Norris and Ervin Santana and should fetch more than Michael Young. With MAG and Pettibone aboard, Kendrick doesn’t have much of a future with this team.
If they got a good prospect for Kendrick it is worth considering. He’s pretty much been pitching like the old okay up and down Kyle lately.
In over 60 years of watching baseball I have never seen worse baseball than this weekend.
To quote Casey ” CAN ANYBODY HERE PLAY THIS GAME”
12 of Nix’s 21 hits came in April
Both MRa Young should only should just be memories of the silly winter of 12/13
Ashe might help makes us want to watch the TV
RADIO “but they didn’t give up” ????
In truth Pettibone was removed after 78 pitches because he had a hole in his sock
When Cholly stares out of the dugout what is he looking at (clearly not the game)
There is only one good form of DUBEE
Trade MM for an M&M
Lets add Ceasar to this salad
Adams please get well
Could it be that “THE DOME” fell in the wrong place
Really eight runs on two hits one a bunt really
My head hurts good night
At least they aren’t playing tonight, they cant lose another game until tomorrow!
Lets get the idea out of our heads that the Phillies are contending next year. Next year should be a transitional year and we can set our sights on a 2015-onward playoff appearance.
Lee-Trade for best offer if it is good. Boegarts for Lee (eat some of Lees salary).
Rollins-Beg Rollins to leave so Boegarts can start at SS. If he waives his rights we could get a good prospect for him. Still a slightly above avg SS with another year on his contract.
Kendrick-May be able to be traded for a good prospect or a passable ML ready guy.
Bastardo-Trade for a decent offer. Doesn’t need to be traded if no good offers are presented.
Utley- Trade only for a mindblowing offer. Otherwise try for a 2 year deal.
Ruiz- I would try for a 2 year deal with him too, unless a good trade offer is brought about. If he is traded I would think about doing whatever is possible to sign McCann. Preferably a 3-4 yr contract.
Lannan-Easily replaced. Trade for whatever.
Michael Young+Delmon Young- Trade for whatever.
Do your best to piece together a good bullpen through FA. This is what 2014 would look like.
This lineup looks even better than this years IMO. Maybe even an above avg. one with some luck.
2-Josh Johnson/Matt Garza
Martin/minor league prospect
Include as much salary as needed to get Lee trade done.
It seems like we could eat all the salary and the Red Sox wouldn’t want to trade us Bradley or Bogaerts. Are you not worried about Pence/Choo/Ellsbury getting into expensive long term contracts while they’re going to be declining (or injury prone) and costing a draft pick?
Heard that Amaro was asking for Bogaerts and another guy or two. I think if we just asked for B and payed more of Lees salary its possible to reach a deal. Maybe get B and another guy and include Paps.
And with the outfield situation, 2 things.
1. If the Phillies wish to compete next year it is necessary. But I can see why they wouldnt want to pursue them.
2. If they do want to sign one of those outfielders, I would look to sign one for an expensive 3 year deal. They have the resources so there is no need for any 6 or 7 year bologna.
Im not worried about the draft pick with the 5 or so new prospects we would haul in.
I am also aware that what I think is good for the Phillies and what the FO thinks are probably completely different. This is just the best case scenario in my own opinion.
What most divides people on this forum from each other is not differing visions of the team’s future. it’s differing visions of the trade value of the veterans. Lee AND Papelbon AND paying both player’s full salaries for the rest of their contracts would not get you Bogaerts.
I find that hard to believe. Not even Bogaerts is a sure thing. Pap and Lee are.
I’m not so sure Paps and Lee are sure things, especially beyond this season. Since his bad stretch began Paps has more blown saves than saves. No pitcher is ever a sure thing. Halladay was one of the surest things in baseball, until this year he wasn’t.
Any player can get hurt. Lee and Paps aren’t exactly prone to injury though and are both much more of a sure thing than the Sox young SS
Huh? Paps is likely injured as we speak and I wouldn’t place any large bets on Lee’s current health. They have both been well below par in July and Paps velocity is well down this season. Lee is now giving up HRs like he used to give up singles — only slight hyperbole.
I would say at this point Bogaerts is at least as much of a sure thing as Lee, and much, much more of a sure thing than Paps.
Putting Paps in the deal, from Boston’s perspective, probably DECREASES the value of the package., They would not take Paps from us for a bag of balls. They wanted no more part of him even when he was still good. He’s one of the guys they let go of to fix a dysfunctional locker room.
Also, I think this trade helps both teams equally. A lot of people here don’t think about how the FO of other teams would think. You have to put yourself in the Red Sox shoes and decide if it would be a good offer. If I were them id honestly do it. You get beloved Papelbon back (where he wants to be as well) and an ace pitcher to take Bucholz spot. The Sox have a chance to win it all this year. Not many chances in their division
Ahoy, let’s step back from the question about which of us is “right” in about trade value in some abstract sense. I think I’ve made some pretty strong (and un-refuted) arguments about that, but ultimately the people who can be convinced probably already have been.
But what you need to keep in mind is that (and this isn’t true of every front office), the Boston FO looks at value the same way I do (I mean philosophically – obviously they have resources available that I don’t). YOU would make the deal. THEY won’t.
This is why I’m entirely confident when talking about organizations like the Red Sox (and Rangers, and Cardinals, just to name 3). They think like I do on trade value. Now, some other organizations, not so much. If you want to dream, fream about them.,
Its difficult to put trade value on a prospect that hasn’t been to the big leagues yet. However I do admit that it may be more difficult to pry Bogaerts from the Sox. It’s just that if the Phillies are going to trade Lee for something, it better not be a crap deal. I wouldn’t settle for just Jackie Bradley or just Henry Owens.
And this is why some of us advocate against trading Lee, because the “blown away” offer isn’t out there. And if you aren’t going to get anyone who makes a future impact then you have a better chance keeping him and trying to win a 2nd wild card spot until the new TV Deal comes in.
See, that’s what I meant when I said that, ironically, I’d probably be willing to accept LESS for some of our veterans than the “fire sale” crowd. I’d pull the trigger on Lee for Bradley, assuming we got, say, a B prospect and one or two C prospects as well. Not saying that would be a great trade for us – Bradley doesn’t look like a star and he’s less of a sure thing than Bogaerts – but if he ends up being even an average major league regular, that’s a great deal on a value basis. And he fills a huge hole at a position where the cupboard is bare (yeah, okay, Dugan maybe. Wouldn’t bet the house.)
But I DO think Amaro is looking for a Bogaerts type return which he won’t get. Hence no deal gets done.
I suppose it could work if the returns are out there. The sheer amount of signings that are involved could be problematic though. Johnson/Garza, OFer, and Mccann. That’s a lot of guys to pursue all at once + 3 FA relievers. It would seem like the Bullpen situation would still be fairly unresolved. As far as the 5th spot in the rotation I would have penciled Morgan in there if he was healthy but I think both he and Biddle will need at least half of next year before they are ready for the big time and Martin simply hasn’t refined his control enough. I don’t think that keeping Lannan on his cheap deal would be much of a detriment considering he nets nothing in a trade.
I think we have the pitching depth in the minors to pull it off. It all really depends on how ready you think our guys are in Lehigh and Reading. With a few contracts off the book we should have the recources to obtain a few good FA
Of course you keep Lannan and I think Kendrick as well. They are worth more than you will get for them and they won’t be all that expensive, although Kendrick is certainly going to add multiple millions over this year’s salary.
Perhaps you keep Lannan. Id rather not have him at all though considering any old pitcher can probably give you a similar effort (if not better) for cheaper.
If that’s what RAJ is asking, I’m sure it rates a hearty laugh from Boston, unless the other two prospects are awfully fringy and RAJ is eating a lot of $$. Bogaerts won’t come cheap, and likely won’t be traded at all. That sort of player is hardly ever dealt. The net present value of a guy like that at MLB minimum and then arb is like a probability-weighted $100 mill over the salary he will get for his first 6 or 6.5 seasons. Lee might well be very good for the remainder of his deal, but he is almost certain not to outperform his $.
Think of a Cody Ross/Victorino type deal. Maybe even a 4 yr deal would be acceptable
They wouldn’t trade Bogaerts, they might trade Bradley. He is certainly the more realistic target of the two
Why keep the ancient Michael Young? Makes no sense. He gets on base ok, but he doesn’t even have the power for 3B, let alone 1B.
I think that’s an exaggeration. I’m willing to bet that would get you Bradley and that it would be an overpay by the Phillies.
You are right that 2014 will be a non-contending transitional year, although Phillies will sell it as a lot more than that over the winter. I think you are hugely optimistic to put Bogaerts in your lineup. I also think it highly unlikely that Pence would ever be brought back to Philly. I can see Rollins still at SS and Bradley in the OF. If McCann gets a QO, he’s not coming to Philly. We didn’t protect this year’s #16 to lose a better pick next season. The success of Crawford pretty much guarantees that.
Its all very unlikely, but we will have to wait and see. We will know for sure in 2 days
Buy buy buy. This team needs to trade for quality players.
Cody Asche HR #14. This is getting really stupid. Asche to 3B, Young 1B, Brown RF, Ruf LF. Release Elmon Yak.
I agree, Asche looks about ready to fill in at 3B. On the other hand a full season in AAA wouldnt hurt. Would just be interesting to see what we’ve got
I don’t think he’s going to learn anything else at AAA. The one move I absolutely want RAJ to make is trading Michael Young so we can see Cody in the bigs.
Sure, ..but it wouldnt hurt if he did. And fortunately that trade is pretty inevitable.
look again, 15 now
Hopefully that is his last HR in AAA
And Asche just hit # 15! I told you guys he’s got Utleys power! He’s proving doubters wrong about his defense and lack of power.Imo, between Asche and Franco, Asche is the better third basemen. He’s quicker, more athletic, and has better ran ge.
wow!! no way
Its a good problem to have. With his work ethic he can still give it another shot at second. And if he can slug 20 homers a year he can play Left Field too if Franco is the real deal.
I have always been a fan of Asche. LOVE his swing.
#15 just now. Average to .296. Every time I hear people say he’s not an everyday big leaguer I wonder what the hell they are smoking.
It definitely seems like his reputation/projection is lagging behind his performance at this point.
I like Asche but let’s remember that he started AA slow and got hot from June onwards last year. Same thing this year in AAA where he started slow and ended hot.
He may start slow in August and September causing people to write him off too early.
History says that he will have an adjustment period and the team is going to have to make allowances for that. This will be a lot easier for all to accept in August and Sept of 2013 than it will if the adjustment period is April and May of 2014, so best to get him up quickly. The Phillies just need to stick to the plan and give him the 3B job without signing a vet 3B over the winter, whether Asche’s OPS this fall is .600 or .900. Next year is simply not the time for the Phillies to trot out their standard logic: “this season is too important to trust an untested rookie with a starting spot”.
I do want to amend one thing. I said I don’t think there is disagreement about vision for the team. Actually, I think there is – but the breakdown isn’t between the fire sale guys and the anti-fire sale guys.
But there are two kinds of anti-fire sale types. There are relative pessimists like me, who don’t see much short term hope for the team whatever moves happen or don’t happen, but who take a “first, do no harm” approach, hoping to rebuild intelligently and avoid 3 or 4 years as the Marlins north. Interestingly, our vision of the need to rebuild, and the way to rebuild, isn’t THAT different than the majority of the fire sale crowd. We agree that you need to rebuild with young talent. We just disagree about how easy it is to pry that talent from other teams.
And there are the anti-fire sale people who think that with just a tweak here and a tweak there, we can be back in contention next year. Now, this is not an entirely irrational point of view. But IMO trying to go that route (and I fear that Amaro will) is a mistake. We LIKELY won’t make it back to contention. anyway, and the cost will be substantial in terms of the team’s long term prospects.
What confuses me though is yet another group, a subset of the fire sale crowd. These are the guys who want to trade away all of the veterans, then turn around and sign 2 or 3 big free agents next year. Sorry, this one I just don’t get on any level.
If you were referring to me on option #3, this is what I suggest the Phillies do should they want to still contend next year. Id prefer them to just sign McCann and bullpen pieces.
I consider myself partially both of the anti-firesale camps. I think with some luck and some bullpen help it would be possible for this team to sneak into a 2nd wild card spot next year. I don’t advocate for trading prospects away for veterans at this point in time because it doesn’t make any sense.
I also think that the only way we’re getting our next core is through our own player development because prospects at this point in time are so hard to pry away from most teams.
This is pretty much where I come out. IMO, if this team can address the bullpen in the offseason and somehow obtain a quality corner OF I think they can contend again while supplementing the lineup with prospects as they (hopefully) become ready.
Obviosuly, this approach requires a bit of luck- Asche being better than projected, Howard providing some value when healthy, Utely staying healthy, Gonzalez contributing, Galvis/Hernandez improving at the plate, etc. But the firesale approach requires a lot of luck/projection as well in hoping that the obtained prospects pan out.
I guess I’m just more incline to proceed cautiously…
I agree it’s possible the Phillies can possibly contend next year if things go right. Which is also why you trade some guys this year. I’m not a M. Young hater, but you need to know if Asche can be a decent 3rd baseman. If you want to compete next year, then you need to let Asche get his feet wet this year. You can’t afford to learn on the fly about players if you are expecting to compete that year. The bullpen is terrible, but at least those guys are playing. I would expect all of them to at least improve a little bit for next year.
Andy Martino tweets that his sources say Lee will be traded. Probably to Boston.
Yeah, doesn’t seem to be much behind that – “informed speculation” by an NL executive.
If a deal goes down, it will be interesting to see what the return is. I’m really betting on Bradley being the headline piece if it happens. Boston won’t give more, Amaro won’t take less. Cecchini would be a possibility, but, even aside from the positional issues, I think Amaro will want someone major league ready. Barnes is I guess the other possibility but I think Amaro will want a position player.
If it is somehow Bogaerts, I will have a massive amount of egg on my faith but it would be worth it.
I’d take Bradley for Lee. If they were able to get a little more (Brentz, Barnes or Renaudo) and dump Papelbon back on them, I’d be ecstatic. Take those prospects, and use that 38 million per, on other players.
If Bogaerts isnt in the deal then the sox are going to be sending at least 4 of their top 100. I like Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, Jackie Bradley and Cecchini.
There’s no way we get Bogaerts
Ownes, Barnes, Brentz and Britton. Of course I would like Bogaertz but I doubt Boston gives him up. Bradley is good but lefthanded. I’d rather roll the dice with Brentz in RF and get those additional pitchers. If they get Bradley their lineup would be all lefthanded except for catcher. (and Rollins is a switch hitter…and so is Hernendez if they go that way. Regardless, they need righties)
So you would prefer to receive the lesser player, in order to get a RH bat?
I agree that Bradley is probably the centerpiece if it happens. It will also be pretty ironic if they end up trading their best pitcher to obtain a player that they passed on in order to take a guy who’s (literally) eating up the Sally League.
Larry, what if they packaged in Michael Young? I’m still don’t think they get Boagartes, but with Young in there you could ask for 4 legit prospects – some combination of Bradley, Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Cecchini, Middlebrooks – and at some point, if you’re the Red Sox, don’t you start to think it’s easier just to give up Boagartes and 1 other prospect plus lower level ones then 3 or 4 top 100? I really don’t know. However, if the Phillies were already asking for 3 to 4 top prospects, why not throw Young in there to sweeten the pot?
how many of boston’s prospects are major-league ready? other than bogaerts, who i assume will not be traded under any circumstances.
Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, Rubby De La Rosa and Webster are all mlb ready starting pitchers
Here’s my take for what it’s worth? 2 trades both with Houston, giving away prospects for a guy like pence made no sense. The club was going to win the division with or without him and to add another free swinger to a lineup packed with them was bad. Secondly oswalt, again the club was going to win the division any way, but trading prospects for a guy they had to beg to come to Philly? Neither helped one bit come playoff time, and netted the club nothing after the fact. Ugh! Piling on as there are many more but had vent a little.
The last thing I want to do is to give aid and comfort to the anti-Rollins contingent, and, as usual, he’s getting a disproportionate amount of grief over his recent remarks.
But the one (and IMO only) legitimate criticism of Rollins that one can make, is that he does have foot in mouth disease. And he exhibits it again here. He could have said something like “I’m going to veto any trades because I love it here, I love playing for the Phillies, and I want to help them return to the post season.” Instead he has to reference personal records. No, I don’t think it indicates that he is selfish. I think that it is (further) proof that Rollins sometimes opens his mouth before engaging his brain.
And anyone with any familiarity with Phillies’ history can probably add several prior examples of this.
The most legitimate thing to be said against Rollins is that his OPS is in the tank this season at about .660 and his stolen base advantage has also vanished. By the time Rollins vesting year rolls around in 2015 he may well be a .600 OPS slow SS who is below league average on D. In other words, he is quickly turning into a costly piece of sentiment and Galvis will be his equal before that contract is over. Since his downslide began, his mouth has been writing checks that his body can’t cash as he has directed trash talk at opponents in recent years. He’s still cocky, he just isn’t all that good a player any more.
I’d like to understand what know it all larrym thinks about Cody Asche being on pace to hit 20+ H R’s this year in AAA? Thought he didn’t have any power and would never be an above average 3B?
I don’t think he exactly projects to being anything other than an average 3B as it is.. compare him with Sano.
I think that is correct, he projects as an average ML 3B. There is nothing at all bad about having a league average 3B in 2014 and 2015. When was the last time we could say our 3B was better than league average? And we’ll have that league average player at MLB minimum salary. That is nothing at all to be disappointed about. And when Franco is ready, Asche is very tradeable as a cheap, relatively young, established 3B. Good 3B are still scarce and a cheap league average guy has good trade value.
More than a few folks here on this board will end up very wrong about the just turned 23 yr old Asche. Looks like a hell of a player developing in front of us
I hope so! To me he seems like a guy that MAY turn in a few 15HR .280/.350/.450 seasons in his prime. Still a good ballplayer
What is wrong with Larry thinking he’s an average 3B? Larry likes Asche
Asche isn’t doing anything in AAA that surprises me in the slightest or anything that changes my evaluation of him one iota. Short version: his AAA performance is, taking everything into account, about what one would expect from a player who on track to be an average major league regular.
As for the power, I never said he “didn’t have any power.” I said he had mid range power, and those projecting 30 plus HR power were kidding themselves. I still think that. 20 HR in AAA (if he makes that, and he has a good chance of doing so) is not 20 HR in the majors.
I think it might be fair to raise the expectations of power a tiny bit. Maybe eventually closer to 20 HR than 15. But OTOH his K rate is worse than it was. I’d say the two things balance out.
I was never one of the people who said he wasn’t likely to be an average major league regular. I think he will be. That is a compliment, not an insult. I, too am baffled about why he isn’t seen that way by people outside of Philly (and he certainly isn’t – if he were, he would be a top 100, probably top 75, prospect).
There is one variable, which is defense. Opinions about his defense seem all over the map. But I haven’t seen any credible source who claims that he is a plus defender. If he is a plus defender, then my evaluation of him would be somewhat different. But he isn’t as far as I can tell. In fact, the most credible sources express some doubts about this defense.
Honestly he seems to me (and has seemed to me) a player whose skills are, pretty much across the board, average. he does everything decently (again, compared to major league players), but has no real plus skills. He does have a nice swing, but that’s somewhat outweighed by what look like slightly below average contact rates, speed, and possibly plate discipline.
And, as others have said (I appreciate the support), saying he is likely to be an average regular means that I LIKE him. An average position regular in his cost controlled years has a ton of value.
Could he be more? Sure. And he could be less. There’s upside and downside risk. But the most likely possibility is average regular.
There were some people saying “not enough power for a third baseman.” That wasn’t me. Never thought that, never said that. I don’t think he has enough as a hitter – overall, not just about power – to be a regular corner OF, but that’s a separate issue.
I think he could be a corner OF that wouldn’t kill you value wise, but he’s far from the optimum type of player to have in the corner OF spot.
Asche’s K-rate is trending and he did the same exact thing last season. That’s confirmation. I’m not predicting a perennial MVP candidate or even a perennial All-Star, but he looks to me like much more than an average regular. Let’s remember that the kid was 22 only a month ago. 22. He’s still improving and is likely, very likely, to add a good deal of strength over the next few years.
Month – PAs – Ks – KRate – BA
April – 95 – 23 – 26.4% – .264
May – 124 – 30 – 24.2% – .267
June – 118 – 26 – 22.0% – .318
July – 97 – 15 – 15.5% – .326
And if you look just at the last week and a half, it’s back close to 20% (19% over the past 11 games). I just don’t think the data is strong enough to show a clear trend.
Here’s the thing Steve. It’s certainly POSSIBLE that he’ll end up better than average. But the idea that his production is enough to project him to be a future star – and I know that you’re not one of the people saying this, but others are – is not correct. That was certainly the assumption of the comment that started this dialog – that his AAA performance somehow undercuts my opinion that he’ll “only” be an average regular. it doesn’t.
In essence, projections of him as more than an average regular end up putting a ton of weight on the make up. And maybe ultimately justifiably so. But I’m not willing to do that. I put SOME weight on that, which is probably why I’m more optimistic than the national/scouting consensus. But, AS OUTSIDERS, there is just a very limited amount any of us can reliably know about his make up.
Larry – while I’m more optimistic than you re Asche’s outlook, I don’t think it’s a considerable difference.
As far as make up, this may be the area that causes me to be more optimistic as I’d contend that make up is a significant factor. Of course, make up cannot be measured, and without the ability to quantify the impact a player’s make up can have on their playing career, most enthusiasts of modern day statistics would simply choose to dismiss it as a non-factor.
I don’t know that the last sentence is true, or maybe more accurately I would phrase it differently. I’d say most modern stat guys view it the same way that I do – as something extremely important, but, for outsiders especially, something that tends to be unknowable until it is reflected in the statistics.
I’d also say that probably the vast majority of major leaguers have “good make up” or they never would have made it. There are, of course a few guys with off the chart make ups – but again, that usually isn’t knowable until after the stats reflect the make up. And a few guys who are talented enough to make it on that alone, and have crappy make up. They usually go the way of … well, you know who I’m talking about I suspect.
‘Go the way of . . . “; Full-time RF’ers for a purported Championship caliber team?
I like Asche plenty, but I do wonder how well he’ll hit LHPs in the majors. His splits are pretty significant this year, and to a lesser extent last year.
I saw that Handzus – has me somewhat concerned as well. Damn lefties
It’s funny you mentioned the splits because Laynce Nix popped into my head for some reason and after looking it up it’s weird how similar Nix and Asche were as minor leaguers. Both were 4th picks too. And that’s not a knock against Asche. Nix has made $5mm playing baseball. I think that type of career is probably what we’re looking at with Asche though.
Nominally, yes, but Asche made his way through the system at a much younger age than Nix (who really didn’t have his first full AAA season until age 25, which is quite late – it was also the PCL, where stats are inflated). If Asche were born literally one day later, this would be his age 22 season, so he’s a very young 23. What I keep harping on and was waiting for, was for Asche to get enough at bats at a level to really settle in. Previously, he was so impressive that, as soon as he got around 250 ABs, he was promoted. With Asche, the biggest concerns were the power and the fielding, he seems to be answering both questions emphatically as he gets a significant number of at bats at AAA. In any event, we really don’t know how good Asche will be as a major leaguer, but he profiles to at least be average and save the team money. So let’s get him up to the bigs, let him settle in and see what happens. I’m curious as to whether the team will promote Franco once Asche gets the call. It would be nice to see Franco spend a full year in AAA, spread over two seasons, and a winter in between, to correct all of his technical issues. AAA will help identify just how significant those issues are and what diagnostic work is needed.
How about Lee and Young for Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Brentz, Britton? An overpay of pitching instead of premium positional prospects. Brentz
So would you rather have Wong or Cecchini? Thats basically Hernandez vs Asche, although Franco has to be factored in…Both Wong and Cecchini are probably better than Hernandez and Ashe, but Franco’s power overtakes all else.
(Maybe for this reason) I’d rather deal with STL but I feel like Boston would be more generous.
Cecchini has walked over 15% of his PA’s this season. Something tells me he isn’t on Rube’s radar.
In all honesty I dont think Rube is make the decision on what players. Hes listening to the scouting director and high level scouts. BUT god knows.
Ruben has always listened to the scouting department, for better or worse results.
I should’ve read this before I posted a reply above. But that type of Lee/Young package makes a lot of sense. I would think they’d ask for Cecchini or Middlebrooks and I don’t think Boston would want to give up all their pitching prospects. I’d guess it’d be a mix
I was going to say Brentz is for Young essentially…
Throw in pap ad some salary to eat and get Bradley or Brentz along with ranaudo and Owens! I’ll take it! Lol
Though there are here those who are skeptical about Asche, I’ll opine that he becomes our 3rd baseman with an eventual 25-30 HRs/season and a good OBA of .360 or above plus better than average 3rd basing with lots of 2bhs and even a few SBs thrown in. Plenty of RBIs included.
He has done too well too soon to have the confidence of some who still wonder if he is real, it seems. I ask: how many of THEIR draftees move so quickly,and successfully, up through the system so as to present themselves as a more-than viable GOOD MLB 3rd baseman, already? And why should we be wary of his success? A bit of masochism, maybe.
The guy has all the goods plus that extra ingredient : passion to learn, improve, and lead/ A personality to replace Utley’s. I see him there for the next 6 or more years and becoming one of NL’s best and our best since Michael Jack.
Of whom much was asked, and in turn much was delivered.
Franco? first base instead of that automatic strikeout machine.
You think he’ll be better than Rolen or did you forget about him?
Art and I don’t see eye to eye on this stuff, so on the whole it is best not to comment. But I do want to highlight and comment on one small point: ” I ask: how many of THEIR draftees move so quickly,and successfully, up through the system so as to present themselves as a more-than viable GOOD MLB 3rd baseman, already?”
The fact of the matter is, that Asche’s speed of advancement through the system is typical of prospects from that draft who have become major league prospects of any type. That’s what a major league college prospect does, rocket through the system. Looking at that draft, there are already about a dozen guys with major league experience. Almost all of the other college prospects who look like real prospects are, like Asche, in AAA knocking in the door. And there are a bunch of them – it’s not particularly unique. Not all of them by any means are doing as well as Asche, but then again not all of them are on track to be even average major league players.
Now, a LOT of college age prospects picked ahead of Asche have fallen by the way side – he is indeed a GREAT success. But there’s nothing about his pace of advancement that’s remarkable for a college kid who is destined to be a major league player.
I think the perception that Asche’s rate of advancement is unique is based mostly on the fact that the Phillies have had such little success with college draftees in recent years. But, as you say, Asche’s progression is exactly how you plan it with a good college player and fairly common throughout the league.
Still, I find myself more bullish on Asche than I did to start the year. I’m looking forward to watching him
Asche has the work ethic to be a solid major league player. Given the dreck the Phillies passed off as 3B over the years we should be happy with his development.
If Franco passes him in a couple of years the Phillies will have a nice trade chip at a weak position across the majors.
If the phils do make a trade, I’m glad we have Ed wade on our side this time (scouting the pawsox tonight). Maybe he can help us restock the system after picking it clean when he was with Houston.
can’t decide if this is sarcasm or honest, but man does it make me want to cry.
All that matters is that one trade with Houston worked… The one for Brad Lidge. That one likely won us a World Series. Makes everything a whole lot better. Imagine if we had not gotten that one?
How is the 2014 draft class looking? With a sell off we could be looking at a top 10 pick.
I don’t think the quality of the guys available at #10 usually changes all that much. There is a lot of year-to-year variation in the value of the first one, two, three, even four guys in the draft. Thre is also a variation in the number of ‘recognized as seriously good’ guys available in the first round. This year the Phillies were fortunate that this list extended to our pick and we could get Crawford. The number of seriously good guys is almost always at least 10, If we are in the top 10 we absolutely will get a good pick. Every year, guys who turn out to be extremely good, but were not universally acclaimed pre-draft, are available in later rounds to organizations with scouts who have the ability and make the effort to find them. There are almost always quite good guys available to pick in the second round. At the 10th pick in that round, there will surely be a very good guy available to us.
The draft is a lot better in 2014, better top 10 and a lot of depth in high school pitching
the 2014 draft keeps getting better. This summer we have seen the depth of prep pitching get very deep.
If in the off chance that we were able to get Bogaerts for Lee, since Jimmy isn’t going anywhere wouldn’t it be better to let Utley go and play Bogaerts at 2nd until SS opens up?
I know then next year the infield would be a dangerous combination of young and old. With Asche, Rollins, Bogaerts, Ruf/Howard. But wouldn’t it be better then the the inevitable outcome of it being Asche, Rollins/Galvis, Utley/Hernadez, Ruf/Howard. We know Utley and Howard can’t play full seasons, and in the past seasons when Rollins was hurt it was for extremely long stretches.
No chance in hell they trade a top 5 prospect in baseball for Lee. I’m more confident in that then roccom was in his assessment in Brown.
The Red Sox should trade their top prospect, infielder Xander Bogaerts, to get Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee. – Ken Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal also said they won’t do it
I think the Phils don’t make the deal if Middlebrooks or Bogaerts isn’t the centerpiece so I’m guessing it won’t happen unless the Sox’s cave last minute.
I don’t want any part of a deal that includes Middlebrooks. I’d take Bradley Checchini and one of either Barnes or Ranaudo. In two years you could have a very young exciting offensive team that includes BROWN, BRADLEY, CHECCHINI, FRANCO, and ASCHE.
They should stay far away from Webster and Middlebrooks. I think there are underlying issues with each of those guys. Having said all that I think odds are Lee is still a Phillie come Thursday and I’m ok with that.
I think if they refuse to send Bogaerts it could still get done, but the Sox would be sending 4 top 100 prospects. The name you guys arent saying is Henry Owens whose fastball has ticked up to the mid 90′s from the left side, Matt Barnes, Garin Cecchini, and Jackie Bradley Jr. While the Philles send Lee, Young and 12 million dollars.
That would be a good deal.
If you are saying we get Owens also I’m not going to complain
Even a lower level guy like Brian Johnson would be nice from the Red Sox system as well
I don’t want Middlebrooks. Bogaerts or bust for me (but that would be an absolute shocker IMO….)
honestly you guys need to start realizing Will Middlebrooks was never a top 50 prospect and is a fringe big leaguer now.
I would think the only why the deal would happen is if Boston’s ownership over rules the GM and makes the deal, feeling that Buchholz may not be ready for sometime and feel they need another pitcher to make the playoffs.
Bostons system has incredible depth. This is why I dont think theyre against selling the farm and holding on to Bogaerts. If you look at their pre season top 25 there is not one player in the BA hand book who projects below a 50. This was before the ascension of Owens and Cecchini too. I think its a very big deal for the sox to get back in the world series.
It should be a long 36 hours until 4:00 tomorrow. I can’t wait to see Asche debut in Philly though. After 2 homers last night, I would call him him up now and end his minor league exp memorably. After M Young is traded tonight or tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if Charlie platoons Frandsen with Asche or not. If they don’t platoon them, once Revere and Howard are back, they’d be awfully left slanted (Utley, Dom, etc). Will the Sox cave in? Will RAJ be able to make a good how profile deal finally?
Murry the real question is will raj cave, I am really confused about the redsox, with young and lee, they have a real good chance of going to world series, especially with lee, yet they rather try without adding a top pitcher like him, then give up a prospects, baseball has really changed, teams would take the risk and deal a good propsects if it meant they have better chance to win world series,
The Yankees won about 100 games in 2011 and lost in the first round also.
Yeah its a crapshoot, but you still must give yourteam and your fans the best chance to win, and boston without lee isnt as good. only my opinion. look I would offer paps, lee, young for 5 prospects, bogarts, bradley must be in package, and pay 30 percentage of paps salary.
You want to give your team the best SUSTAINED chance. Constantly getting to the playoffs will yield a better chance of winning a world series than 1 all in shot that results in a destroyed farm system. The Phillies went to the playoffs 5 years in a row. They won 1 of them. They had the best team in baseball for 2 or 3 of those years(NOT the year they won) and went “all in” twice and both times they didn’t make it to the World Series.
I get that, but I think good starting pitching would change things a little bit because there is more of a guarantee to have an impact in the playoffs. You can acquire a big time bat, but if no one gets on base or the pitching gets pulverized, that big time bat has less of a chance to make an impact. However, with Lee in the playoffs, he’s guaranteed to have a chance to make an impact.
good point on RAJ caving why settle now for a package you don’t want when you can trade him in the winter or next July with more than the select bidders in play at the moment.
Because he really does us no good between now and winter and the winter market may not be any better. RAJ must hold out for a realistically good package, but he makes a mistake if he gambles on making a killing on the trade. A realistic good trade may be available over the winter or next summer, but I doubt a killing will be. That also leaves the Phillies gambling on Lee’s good health, which is a gamble I’d prefer to pass on.
but Lee doesn’t have health issues. And doubtful that you will get a worse package later than you would get now. This winter or at next season’s trade deadline, his value may even go up because he’s not a rental and his contract is a huge long one, just a year and a half. Also, maybe certain players turn it around and you end up competing next year.
I think RAJ will hold out and not cave in because he doesn’t have to make a deal, he doesn’t have to lower their payroll. Leverage is a powerful thing in the trading world. Its how we lost Domingo Santana… I want that shoe on our foot now. I want Bogaerts, he’s the kid that looks like a can’t miss middle infielder. I would also happily take Profar if Texas surprises and jumps back in. That’s what RAJ really needs, a 2nd highly motivated bidder.
It won’t happen, but I would love to see the Phils really test out the future starting this weekend.
I want to see Asche at 3B (A decent chance) but also I want D.Young on the Bench and Ruf back in the OF. Move Utley from 2B to 1B and promote Hernandez and play him at 2b. Then promote Galvis and let him man SS for the rest of the year and let Jimmy rest his hammy and maybe next year he will be healthy enough to run to 1b on ground balls.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 1m
Source: Phillies plan on calling up 3B Cody Asche. Points to Michael Young being traded today.
Yep. Asche on his way to Philly. Good for him. He certainly has earned it
he certainly has! wodner if he’ll play tonight?
Somebody on here said today, I think there are phillies employess on this site, Cody was just at mc donalds on 2nd and oregon, i was jogging and saw him
McDonalds? I hope he was eating a salad
McDonalds actually have good salads, the Southwest salad being my favorite.
Speaking of McDonald’s. Why is John McDonald in the majors and why is he on the Phillies. Pete Orr is great compared to him.
So the Red Sox are still saying Bogarts is not going to be part of any deal for Lee, but will trade multiple top ten prospects
What about something like Bradley, Cecchini, and Henry Owens (really, any one of the AA/AAA SP prospects)?
Side note, my data display/geek side of me really likes how http://www.soxprospects.com displays their prospect rankings.
Phils should try to pick up Ryan Lavarnway. He plays catcher and some outfield and has been jerked around a lot – has a very impressive bat and would be an interesting extra guy to have around and a potentially valuable addition. Lavarnway can flat out hit – a classic Red Sox player – he’s just never had a long enough try out.
Rosenthal reports M Young only willing to go back to TX so these reports he is somehow in with a BoSox deal don’t seem accurate.
It’s such a ridiculous position for Young to hold really. If the Rangers truly wanted him they wouldn’t have eaten part of his salary to trade him to the Phillies. And if he wants to win then he isn’t going to do it here. He won’t be re-signed here. Anyway, anyone who thought we might get a semi decent prospect for Young I guess bad news for us.
So, let him sit on the bench as Asche’s caddy. He’ll soon enough be happy to bless a post-deadline deal. This is where RAJ needs to enlist the help of Monty to order Cholly: never start Young again.
I’m all for it. Time to destroy that “consummate professional” label.
Agreed. I just called him that yesterday. Unreal, that he’d rather rot on the bench than go into a race.
I know you think that Ruben has to ask Dave Montgomery’s permission to order Charlie not to play Young – I highly doubt that is the case. Ruben will summon Charlie in to the office and say something like “we need to get the kid Asche playing time every day and I want to make sure the see a lot of Ruf.” Charlie’s had enough jobs to know what that means.
Catch…if thats the case, might as well promote Ryne Sandberg now, rather wait another 100 days.
Cholly has made it crystal clear over the years that he doesn’t give a crap what RAJ thinks or says. He’s leaving at the end of the season, anyway. Unless he hears it from somebody with the authority to fire his ass before the end of the season if he stages one of his rebellions, it isn’t happening. He’d view it as disrespecting one of his vets.
“Cholly has made it crystal clear over the years that he doesn’t give a crap what RAJ thinks or says.”
As I read this, your view is that Charlie disregards direct instructions from his boss. Strong statement – what proof do you have of that? I’m not posturing, I’m asking – what evidence do you have of that?
His snarky comments to the press on his contract situation and prior to the Pence trade for starters. If RAJ is his boss, Cholly strikes me as damned near insubordinate. Also the way in which Cholly doesn’t play minor leaguers whom RAJ sends up saying they will be played after Cholly almost asked to have them. Witness Brown and Galvis.
Let’s conveniently ignore the fact that it was RAJ was the one who said contending teams can’t wait for prospects to develop in the show, that Galvis did play when there were openings in the lineup (witness Utley last year). And for a guy that’s the winningest coach in franchise history with one of the two World Series championships in said franchises 100+ year history, he’s been fairly quiet about his contract. I mean really, which rookie besides Brown was mishandled by the team? Stop listening to Cataldi and come back to reality.
I haven’t listened to Cataldi or the WIP crew for close on 10 years. Phillies GMs always have to tailor their statements to suit the PR objectives. Just like Wade prattled on about the huge contract offer that Rolen had turned down, so the team didn’t seem cheap. The GM will give an explanation for anything the team feels it has to do. Galvis played as an injury replacement, then he rotted on the bench.
I’m not sure how long you’ve been following the Phillies. I sometimes get the impression that those who have such a visceral objection to some of my comments just aren’t aware of or don’t apply lessons from the Phillies history. They have their own concept of what ‘normal’ is and assume that must be the way things are, hence comments that basically boil down to ‘isn’t the simplest and most logical assumption that RAJ is Manuel’s boss’. There is a lot of example in sports where the coach does not report to the GM. In the case of the Phillies, I think Manuel and RAJ are co-equals, who both report to Monty, and are in charge of their own sphere. You and LarryM pretty much also say “isn’t it reasonable to just assume that the owners are limited to finance and RAJ is in charge of everything baseball’, but there is a lot of history which says that is unlikely. We know that the Phillies ownership under the Giles ownership team has been very involved. We are almost unique in the historical extent of that, like the Dallas Cowboys. You may not remember, but for the initial years of this ownership team’s tenure an owner (Giles) actually acted as the GM. Thomas was the first real GM under this ownership team. There was a lot of conflict between Thomas and the owners on how to build the organization, particularly handling the farm. It culminated with the JD Drew draft and non-signing. While Thomas and the scouting staff were trying to make a last stab at a deal, Bill Giles actually took over the negotiations and infuriated the other side, being rather insulting and totally inflexible and doing so in a public way. We had Wade as a weak GM. Then we had Gillick as a strong GM. Then we had the novice RAJ. By the way, the guys kicked to the side by Giles were no slouches, they were Dallas Green, the Pope, and the most respected scout in Latin America. Green quickly went to the Cubs, took a lot of scouts with him, and picked Giles pocket on the Sandberg deal. This deal was prompted by Giles’ pique that Bowa wanted a raise. Giles was determined to get Bowa off his team.
So, unlike many ownership teams, which are in the shadows, we have a lot of history on the philosophy of this ownership group, because Giles was front and center for several years, running the baseball side of the operation. For those of us who have followed the team since the 1950s, these historical gleanings help to interpret current events.
A-town…..Cholly has already said he did not want to retire. But alas, there is no contract extension offer on the table. So it isn’t his doing about wanting to stay or leave.
As sellers, put him out of his misery and let him go now. The team could very well hit rock bottom in the next two months.
Could also be a lineup shift. Ruf to LF, Young to 1b, Asche to 3B? I haven’t heard anything along that line of thinking. But I’d love to see anything that removes Delmon Young from my eyesight 4 times a night. A little surprised at Young’s about face.
M. Young negotiated the no trade clause long and hard with the Phillies. Personally, I think he’s a fool if he misses a pennant race because he wants to sit on the bench in south Philly, but it’s his right to do so.
I’m not surprised he did the same thing when TX signed Beltre. He strikes me as a guy who is more concerned about being comfortable with his surroundings than a chance to be in the big games.
No big deal either way he wasn’t going to bring much in return and they are not bringing Asche up to sit on the bench.
Thinking the same thing Birdken. Suspect MYoung moves to first and Ruf gets his 2-month trial in LF
Not tonight, at least: M. Young batting 2nd, playing 3rd; Ruf in LF, hitting cleanup; Frandsen at 1st batting 6th.
Birdken, this is purely speculation but Michael Young took a bereavement leave earlier this year for his newborn baby when the child was sick. If the baby is still sick then it is very difficult to blame him for not wanting to be traded and move away.
I don’t think his family is living with him right now but I could be mistaken. I don’t see why they would have uprooted given that he wasn’t guaranteed to stay in Philly.
Good points but I was throwing out a possible reason for his wanting to stay with the Phillies.
That was my only thought that weighed in favor of Young. Obviously we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes with his child, and if that’s the case, he knows he’s with a first class organization that will give him whatever support he needs if further issues arise. The only other place that he knows for certain he can get that type of support is Texas. That’d be the only logical explanation other then Young being selfish here.
MLB Network seem to think that the Phillies will not make any trades by the deadline. They all agree that the Phillies may have one more year to try and make a run with this core of players.
God, I really hate Ruben. Anyone else with me?
Well that’s just the MLB Network talking, I think Amaro is going to at least make some personnel changes (his hands may be tied with M. Young). He did it last year, so why wouldn’t he do it again this year?
If Cody Asche plays third and M. Young plays first for the near future with Ruf moving to left and Brown playing right, it would make for a much more interesting team than the one we’ve been seeing, especially once Revere comes back.
What I don’t get is the people who would get pissed off he didn’t trade anyone would be the same that got pissed off he got a terrible return for the guys he traded. I really wanted Michael Young to be traded but Ruben can’t do anything about him wanting to wallow on a non-contending team for the remainder of the season. As for Lee, they don’t have to trade him. Anyone who wants to dump Lee just to dump him isn’t thinking smart. If he gets a bad package for Lee it will be a bad deal so I have no gripes with his asking price and his negotiation process so far. I mean you’re not the type I’m talking about but the type does confuse me.
+1 – good post.
Matt who do you think Ruben should trade and what should he receive in return?
Can we just start cutting guys out of spite. For a non-contending team, there is zero reason why guys on 1 year contracts (both young’s) should be on the team.
Well if I was a betting man, Michael Young will not be blocking Cody Asche in the very near future. Delmon Young is inconsequential but I suppose they cut him before his next incentive kicks in as long as they have enough OFers.
It would be nice to stop the Delmon Young pain. I just can’t stand seeing him anywhere near this team. He is the futility of this entire season personified.
Really just let Michael Young go back to Texas. He is going to take at bats away from asche. if not okay keep him until end of year. release d young for ruf to play outfield everyday.Hey catch dont you like how delmon young keeps swinging at those outside breaking pitches, I would never throw him anything but sliders and changeups on outside corner.
The Rangers don’t actually want him. That’s the problem in all of this
That fine chris, its really no big deal we would get nothing for him, so let him play first, and third against tough lefthanders, he will help asche I think, just being able to talk to him, about the big leagues and how to play hitters,
Young has told the Phillies that he will consider trades to other clubs if he isn’t dealt to Texas, and the Red Sox are his second choice, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark (on Twitter). Stark adds that if a trade with Boston doesn’t work, the Yankees would be a last-minute possibility.
Just heard on WIP that there are family concerns for Young. Mea Culpa on my end.
Im actually ok with Amaro drawing a line in the sand on Lee. It’s Bogartis or bust in my mind. You just don’t give up a stud like Lee without getting a stud back. Greinke netted Segura, which turned out to be a rental, Dan Haren netted Patrick Corbin and Tyler Scaggs. Halladay netted Travis D’Arnaud. These types of trades have to hurt. It clearly hurts us on our side as it makes us hunt for someone to replace Lee’s value.
When teams offer up a poo platter of 3 prospects and say 4 others are off limits, they clearly know something we (and the Phillies) don’t. Did anyone realize that Will Middlebrooks got sent down due to confidence issues? U think that’s going to play well in Philly? Jackie Bradley had a great spring training. But I haven’t heard much of him from Triple A.
It’s obvious no one wants any part of Middlebrooks including the Sox and their fans. If he’s the centerpiece then bleh. JBJ would be the lowest I would go as far as headline prospects are concerned. It’s said Ruben wants Workman and a majors ready OFer but I suppose some of his demands might change if Bogaerts is taken off the table though as he was the centerpiece of that Ruben trade rumor.
3 or 4 second tier prospects? No matter how high you pile the poo, it’s still poo.
The Red Sox have at least 15 prospects who would be in our top 5.
If i am the GM, i kick in as much money as needed with Lee to get the best prospects possible. I hope it is just posturing when Amaro says we want prospects AND no money sent. If chipping in several million upgrades the package to include Bogaerts why the hell not?
any dollar spent comes out of the next year’s budget. so if we spend $4 mil then that is one less middle reliever we get. $10 mil. that’s one less OF we get. i know many on this board think money is meaningless to the Phils, but they have a budget just like any business. this isn’t fantasy sports.
That means no Chad Durbin or Chad Qualls, no Laynce Nix, no Delmon Young, I’m OK with that. If they are willing to pay 48 million for a Cuban pitcher, what’s 10-20 million more to get a top prospect.
Well, i do get the budget problem but assuming it is trade lee for lesser guys or trade lee with cash for better guys, either way we won’t have lee and with out lee it really doesn’t matter if we take a lesser free agent next year. Next year the phils won’t be to compete it is time be to be patient and collect assests to rebuild. I can see your side of the argument, but the question is how much money buys what level of prospect. I want better prospects and will worry less about limitations on free agents next season.
sorry, a bad job editing made it tough to read in the middle there. I swear i went to college….
Well, you have the luxury of not having your job tied to revenues and profits (or lack thereof). But make no mistake, RAJ doesn’t have the luxury that Sam Hinkie has. RAJ needs to field a competitive team.
When a team screws up like this teams has it has no budject, pay the tax, if there are players to help us.
yeah..no budget…unlimited funds…spend money…just throw it around because i like fantasy sports…the phillies (and their top 5 payroll) are so cheap.
Are you suggesting this organization is not a profitable venture for this ownership group, even in the worst of times I bet the ownership still made money, Also, enough with the tv deal, if Comcast low balls them they should start their own network, what Comcast pays will be relative to the market we are in. Houston got a massive deal I am sure the Phillies will as well. This team should have been blown up, no one here can justify Michael Young being n this roster still, even if they got a terrible offer for him it is still better than getting nothing which is what they will get when he leaves.
Or maybe they are able to find something for Young in a few weeks in a waiver deal. It’s a little ridiculous to get upset about not dumping a guy who wouldn’t have gotten you anything decent in return. Did you see the deals that were made at this deadline? So much for a sellers market.
I’m mad that Young is still on the team but that’s not a reason to burn the house down. He doesn’t figure into the long term plans and neither did the guy they would have gotten for him.
As far as Houston’s TV deal, the deal isn’t working out that well for the Astros or Rockets right now because they never negotiated people carrying the games. Only 40% of the market can see the games. Regardless you could get the Astros deal or you could get the Dodgers deal. You’re not getting the Dodgers deal if TV ratings go in the tank big time in the next 2 years because the team sold everyone off and began a rebuild with no true end in sight.
Either way the tv deal will give them a massive amount of money, which almost scares me because the only thing to spend it on is free agents that are in decline.
I’d “settle” for a package headlined by Jackie Bradley Jr (hah!)
I’d love to see he and Brown headline the outfield for the next 6-10 years.
I would if you could get him and Owens but it’s more because he would be a better asset than anyone else besides Bogaerts (by far relatively to me) among Red Sox prospects. I like Cecchini some also (another lefthanded hitter) but with Asche and Franco you have more redundancy.
I view some of their other pitching prospects not far from the level of Ethan Martin which is fine but you need to get more than that. Owens has a good ceiling but he’s still a Single A pitcher. So to me you need JBJ and him.
The Dodgers appear to have some interest in Lee. Do they have the top level prospects to get a deal done with a good return ?
I say no.
Jackie Bradley lifted from game in 6th for PH. Not injury related.
so apparently JBJ isn’t the only one getting pulled at a curious time. Ranaudo and Iglesias also pulled early
Well not Ranaudo. That’s what I get for trusting twitter haha
Apparently Ranaudo got pulled as well. But, he might have just hit his pitch limit.
Yeah he was at 98 pitches in the 7th
Lookin like Bradley was pulled for Peavy not Lee. ‘Boston no longer pursuing Lee’
Bradley for Peavy would be dumb. But yes the rumors are the Sox are done with Lee.
Deal is apparently done. Pieces unknown. Speculated as Iglesias +
Great trade by Boston. Iglesias is all glove, no bat…basically their version of Freddy Galvis. When you’ve got Middlebrooks and Bogaerts sitting in AAA, he has almost zero value.
Yeah I definitely doubt they’ve sent much for Peavy. I just don’t know how big of a difference Peavy will make for them. Good alternative if they weren’t willing to part ways with better prospects for Lee.
Apparently other names are involved, Iglesias is going to Detroit to replace Peralta and then Garcia is going from Detroit to Chicago as well.
Let’s see if the Sox are able to peddle Middlebrooks and maybe someone else as part of the Peavy trade. This is semi reminiscent of 2009. Phillies didn’t want to pay the prospects for Halladay, went out and jumped on the next best alternative and giving up lesser stuff. I don’t see Peavy performing like Lee did for the Phillies though.
I agree…I made the exact same comment on another Phillies blog about 20 min ago. Seems like the RedSox made a smart, low cost move rather than moving the farm for Lee.
Good God RAJ screwed up. Well, see if the Dodgers want Lee for Pederson/Seager+Zach Lee and a couple other guys.
Get a grip. It’s pretty obvious that the Sox weren’t willing to part with Bogaerts or Bradley at this time. Without one of them in the deal it’s a complete non starter for the Phillies
yes, i have no problem with RAJ asking for a package including bogaerts, etc.
You’re not going to get that much. Even the optimistic rumor was just for 3 prospects. I guess if RAJ eats some $$ you might get another guy.
You know, I would think that any of the “fire sale” crowd with even an ounce of self awareness would step back and think, “gee, maybe we had our expectations too high.” Instead they … I don’t even know the internal logic, I can’t really even imagine it. Do they think the problem was that Amaro wasn’t persuasive enough?.
This is one of those times when I wish I wasn’t proven right, but yeah, those of us who have been saying that our veterans didn’t have all that trade value have been proven correct (Utley’s trade value admittedly hasn’t been tested, but I think, considering the trades that HAVE happened, along with reports of the lack of good offers for Lee, or any offers for Papelbon, that there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that Utley wouldn’t have gotten us a prime prospect either.)
There’s one group that, if they can’t claim vindication, can at least legitimately criticize Amaro. That’s the group that was realistic about the return for Lee, and realistic about the short term damage it would do to the club, but wanted to make the deal anyway, on the theory that even a couple of okay prospects would have been worth losing a few more games in 2014-2015. Amaro could have gotten a couple of B prospects for Lee, and maybe should have taken it. But if he had, I can barely imagine the screaming on this site. And the loudest complainers would have been the “fire sale” crowd.
That last group had maybe two guys in it. Ironically, I was sort of coming around to that view myself, though it would have been tough to accept a deal that didn’t include Bradley (again, Bogaerts was never on the table, and there is no conceivable universe where he would have been).
That Boston gave up so little to obtain Peavy should quiet those who thought Bogaerts plus additional prospects was realistic to begin with. It’s become quite evident that there’s no short term fix for this ball club outside of another club making a severe error in judgement.
Unless a number of players have career years next season in the fashion of the ’93 club, I suspect we’ll have another 80-win type club next season. No free-agent available is going to change that – Cano included
Lee vs Peavy….who gives you the best chance for a championship in Boston.
Lee gave the best chance. But, Peavy + keeping prospects is probably better for boston in the long run.
I heard boston wouldnt give up workman,that why the deal didnt happen.
Honestly, it’s hard to say. How has Lee been pitching this July? When will he be able to make his next start? I know we wanted Boston to fantasize on Lee returning to his form of the first half of this season, but that certainly is no sure thing. Had Lee pitched in July as he pitched earlier this season and not missed his last start, perhaps a good deal with Boston may have happened. I look at Boston as a team that makes the playoffs with or without Lee or Peavey. Selling the heart of the farm for a guy who might help you in the post-season is dumb. We ourselves know how well that worked with Pence, and Cosart/Singleton/Santana, much as we loved them, weren’t close to the quality of what we were asking from Boston. And Pence was playing well at the time of the trade, without reason to speculate if he might actually be damaged goods.
If RAJ does not make a move the PR dept. will be working overtime on the spin.
He has Hamels who is having a disaster of a year on the mound. Cliff Lee, whom he apparently overvalued with Boston.
Rollins who wants to stay for personal reasons, Utley who is setting himself up for a bad retirement contract from the Phillies, Howard’s albatross of a deal, and a closer who does not want to be here.
This will be a tough sell with this roster. This is not a core that will compete for the playoffs. I am sorry but that is reality. We have an aging and injury prone core taking up significant amount of bank.
So the move that would have saved him from PR disaster is selling everyone for nothing. Got it. Did you see what the Sox paid for Peavy? Not much. Basically their package was probably built around like Middlebrooks for Lee. No way can the Phillies deal Lee for that kind of crap package. I don’t blame the Sox for going with Peavy over Lee as a cheaper alternative but I mean it’s pretty obvious the Red Sox were not going to give the Phillies a decent deal. Papelbon and Michael Young have torpedoed their trade value. Honestly what did you expect to get for all of these guys. What moves were out there that would have helped the PR?
I think we all know that the time for this core to win is now over. Watching the team stumble to the finish line for another year while touting an extension to Utley will be a difficult sell to the fanbase.
He needs to do something to shake up the core of this ballclub. Look at the salaries committed to guys for next season and tell me that this team is on the right path.
I think I can better say it like this.
The window for this team is closed. They are a .500 team with an old and injury prone core that has 85 win upside.
Next year the Phillies have to following money committed to theses six players:
Cliff Lee – $25 million
Ryan Howard – $25 million
Cole Hamels – $23.5 million
Jimmy Rollins – $11 million
Mike Adams – $7 million
Jonathan Papelbon – $13 million
That is your core. RAJ needs to do something because doing nothing is not working.
The stadium is not selling out every game so the casual fan is turning away. Meanwhile, RAJ is talking about buying because he believes that this core group of guys can catch Atlanta. He is not fooling anyone.
Sitting on his hands is the worst thing he can do. He has Jimmy after personal awards, Young refusing to be traded, and Paps opening talking about blowing up the team. Meanwhile the biggest news is a potential extension for Utley.
You do realize how incoherent this is?
It would be one thing to come back with a specific idea of what Amaro should have done. Who knows, maybe he should have traded Utley and Lee for prices most fans would have considered ridiculously low, tried to move Papelbon for a “C” prospect, and accepted a couple of years of Marlins level play in exchange for B and C prospects. Doesn’t sound very palatable does it, but a sort of case could be made for that, and, it is the logical implication of your argument.
But if you want to make that argument, make it. If you have another argument, make that one. (Though I can’t imagine what it would be at this point.) But complaining about the current state of the team, even justifiably, and screaming that HE HAS TO DO SOMETHING, isn’t an argument. It’s just venting.
Quick to critique. So whats your solution?
You must be new here.
My solution, which isn’t popular because it involves patience and acceptance of a couple of years of mediocrity, is a gradual transition. Don’t mortgage the future for the quick fix, but also don’t dump veterans just for the sake of dumping them. Ashe is your third baseman till Franco is ready. Otherwise, not many changes in the short run. Sign a FA who doesn’t require losing a pick to put a band-aid on the RF problem (or move Brown there and sign a left fielder). Ruf platoons with Howard. Kratz is an interim solution as catcher.
Someone overwhelms you for Lee? Take it. Unlikely to happen. I’d move Papelbon, but no one wants him. If Galvis improves tot he point where he is a viable regular (he isn’t yet), you try to move Rollins.
Then draft well, hope that your prospects develop, and wait.
Not sexy, not quick, but IMO the best strategy.
Agree…the best way to get back.
Bottom-line patience. People will bring up the impending TV deal as a catalyst for a quick turn-around, but IMO it will take care of itself.
I am surprised with this view from Larry M. I do not usually disagree but I definitely agree with this assessment and plan for Phillies, especially as they try to max out their new tv contract.
Value of their aging vets is worth more to Phillies than other teams. I’d want major top10 prospect for Lee. I would make Utley available (for a high price) then try to resign him in the offseason but can understand why Phillies would not.
Keep the vets and let the young guys try to beat them out (or injury replacement).
Ruiz/Rupp, Howard/Ruf, Utley/Hernandez, Rollins/Galvis, Asche/Franco, Brown/Mayberry, Revere/GIllies (wish). Need Corey Hart for RF, and a good lefty PH.
And yes, re-sign Utley.
The one rational counter argument is to trade Utley and Lee,- your two best players – even though you’re not getting a good return, put Hernandez in at second base, and live through a couple really bad seasons. I mean it when I say that you can make a case for that, even though I think it’s wrong.
But almost no one wants to make that argument. It’s more depressing even than my suggestion.
The problem with resigning Utley is two fold. One, his is injury prone and busted his tail to look healthy in a contract year; that sends up a warning flag to me. Once he gets that $13 million per year deal will he stay healthy? That is a risk I do not want to take.
The second is age. We are not getting the ‘Utley in his prime.’ We are getting the mid-30′s Utley coming off a couple of injury filled seasons.
If you give him $13 million and bring Gonzalez up next year you will be committing close to $130 million to 8 guys. How much money do people think the owners will spend as attendance begins to decline with a sub-.500 team? I doubt they will be spending up to the supposed luxury tax limit of close to $189 million given this year’s payroll was cut by $10 million into the $165 million area.
When you trade a player of Lee’s caliber without insisting on a team’s true top prospects — and the Phils have scouted the Sox enough to know who they want and who they don’t — you end up with Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies, Justin Smoak …
Are these the names around which the next great empire is built? I think not.
Justin Smoak is one name to leave off that list…he was after all, BA’s number 13 prospect in 2010. So he was then in the Ranger’s top 2 or 3 best prospects.
I don’t know if anyone saw clips of the Amaro interview yesterday (I think it was from MLB, but could have been another one), but Amaro diagnosed his team’s main problems as pitching and defense. PITCHING AND DEFENSE??!!!! Sadly, I think he believes this. He doesn’t value offense very much and that priority is evident in the moribund team he puts out on the field and in his inability to spot and obtain quality offensive players. It is also foolish if you are trying to sell tickets – while it is of course secondary to winning, offense helps sell tickets.
I saw it and I don’t read anything into it other than its classic GM speak. Either way it’s not entirely inaccurate to say pitching and defense win championships just take a look at how the paltry offense of the Giants won two WS in 3 years.
I want as much as anyone to get 3-4 top flight prospects for Lee but if that deal isn’t there then it isn’t there.
We all agree that good pitching and defense are important, but if you look at Ruben’s history since 2009, you will see that he has pursued pitching almost to the exclusion of hitting, to the point where his team went from being a powerhouse offense to being, quite frankly, pretty bad. If he thinks he’s going to fix this team with more pitching while ignoring the offense, we are in store for a lot more season where the team hovers around .500. Trust me, I know a little about this, I grew up with the great Mets pitching staffs of the 1970s – Seaver, Koosman, Matlack, Gentry, McGraw – and an awful lot of 83-79 seasons full of agonizing baseball where great pitching was pissed away with an anemic offense. Great pitching and defense may win you championships, but great dynasties are typically built on great hitting and very solid and consistent, while perhaps not dominant, pitching.
By the way, my comments really had nothing to do with trading Lee. I don’t think they should trade Lee unless they are blown away because if you trade Lee, you really can’t compete for a post season berth in 2014, so if they give away that opportunity, it better be worth it.
Well, you really have to start with the Phillies perception of their team at that time and what they were trying to accomplish. They saw their strength as their ‘core’, which always meant their offensive core: Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Rollins. Hamels became a part of that core. They analyzed the team and decided that it didn’t have good enough pitching to take another WS. They decided that great starting pitching plays great in the off-season. I can’t quarrel with that. They decided they couldn’t win the post-season without a strong closer. Certainly 2008 doesn’t happen without Lidge, so that assumption is at least plausible. Adding back Lee was a good move that made sense. Adding Papelbon was a reasonable idea at too high a price, but that is conventional baseball thinking, and the Phillies are nothing if not conventional.
RAJ and the Phillies have not ignored offense. One of the biggest, and certainly the worst, deal was the acquisition of Pence to add offense. The biggest bang last winter was the Revere trade, which was intended to add defense and a better and faster OBP guy at the top of the lineup. The bad news from this winter was totally sacrificing defense in bringing in the two YOungs. None of that really would have made much difference this season with Ruiz no longer being Ruiz, Halladay being gone, and Utley missing a month. I don’t see the Howard DL as a big loss. The re-injury of the Hail Mary signing which was Adams likely precluded getting a bullpenner who was actually healthy enough to pitch.
Your post does point up the great irony which is Phillies strategy. All was aimed at one last win with the core, but in reality it is the core that has been the biggest problem. This year, the core comes down to most of a good season from Utley and DL or quite mediocre play from the rest. Hardly something to build your strategy upon.
Can you honestly say that defense hasn’t been a serious problem for this year’s Phillies. Of course, it’s hard to ignore the continued offensive decline, but we now have guys who can’t play D and aren’t great on offense either.
the pitching and defense have been horrible. the team’s ERA is among the worst in all of baseball. that’s not to excuse the offense, but i’m not even sure the pirates have scored more runs than the phillies. but pittsburgh’s exponentially better in every other facet of the game.
He said bullpen was not very good, was he wrong??and there defense stinks,was he wrong? I believe are second in hits over the last two months, but there clutch hitting stinks.,
I do have to laugh at how predictable people are. Now, I HOPE some of the “trade our veterans for major league ready prospects” crowd will respond more intelligently; many have yet to weigh in. But we predicted that Amaro would be blamed when, shock of shocks, we didn’t get 5 major league ready prospects for our veterans, that no one gave us a future star for Lee, and so on. And it looks like he will get blamed.
Which would be at least a logically consistent response IF Amaro hadn’t tested the trade waters. But he did; he put everyone except Utley (and Brown and Hamels, but no one really wanted them traded) on the market, and ho one was offering us much of anything.
I’d hope to see at least a few of that crowd admit that maybe their hopes were a little on the unrealistic side. We’ll see.
Here’s the thing Larry we can only evaluate a move when it happens. I wish we could know if the Tigers ever offered anything for Papelbon, I wish we could know what the Sox offered for Lee and so on…
For example if the Tigers were offering us Garcia but wanted us to pick up half of Papelbons contract, none of it and RAJ turned it down or insisted on Nick I’d usher him right out the door. My point is we can guess our hopes were unrealistic but we never really know.
We obviously don’t know everything, but we know a heck of a lot, not just from the rumors about Phillies deals, but from the other deals that went down. Even I was shocked at how little value was placed on veterans. We can draw some pretty strong inferences.
We know, beyond a reasonable doubt, that we could not have gotten elite prospects for any of our guys.
Beyond that, the inferences are more debatable. We could have gotten a couple decent prospects for Lee probably.Maybe more/better “B” prospects if we paid some of his salary. It’s not like there were many teams who were even interested. IMO Amaro would have been absolutely roasted by fans for the kind of deal he could have made, but I guess you can argue he should have made it anyway.
I don’t think he could have traded Pappelbon for anything:
(1) Only one team was in the market for a closer.
(2) That team ended up getting a player who arguably better fits their needs than Papelbon – for a “C” prospect.
(3) Teams can look at his K rate, and can read a radar gun. All the blown saves are just icing on the cake.
Now, I could be wrong about that. But, given all the evidence, even someone such as myself, not terribly inclined to be charitable to Amaro, is not going to assume the worst.
Just as important as getting minor leaguers back in return any trade of Lee, Rollins, or Papelbon frees up salary that can be used in the offseason to acquire other players via free agency or trade.
This is a very expensive core that will hamper RAJ’s ability to field a competitive team. Given the state of the team this year and falling attendance it is highly unlikely the owners agree to spend more money next season.
I’ve asked this question all week, but no one seems to want to answer. What FAs do you think the club should sign, and what contracts do you think it would take to get them? Trading bad contracts for more bad contracts (or in the case of Lee, a reasonable good contract for god knows what), while forfeiting your 1st round pick all for the sake of a couple of prospects doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.
I guess people are thinking of dropping like 400 million in the offseason. Not that it makes much sense
There really aren’t any that seem to fit. Start with Ellsbury and Choo both will cost you a compensation pick unless we end up with a top 10. Garza maybe now that he was traded no comp attached to him.
2014 FA market is weak very weak. If you want thump from the right side forget about it.
Corey Hart for RF/LF at 1yr $10M with teams option of $13M with $1M buyout.
Of course you’re right. And of course there’s the problem of giving up the draft picks.
But there’s another issue as well. The main guy on the team who is overpaid is not tradeable (Howard). The second worst contract is probably also untradeable (Papelbon). The two other 20 million players are Hamels, who no one wants to trade (and it would be stupid to trade him after a down year) and Lee, who is not overpaid THIS year, might or not be overpaid going forward – but that fact is part of why the team had trouble getting value for him. No one else on the team is a serious constraint. Utley is a bargain, and the rumored new deal looks like if anything an underpay for the first couple years.
Of course some people argue we should have paid part of the salary of the departing players, but that would have placed the same constraints on FA signings.
And the fact of the matter, in the current environment, if you dip into the FA market under current conditions, you’re going to overpay. Except at the low end, but the Philllies are not so constrained that they can’t dip into the low end of the FA market anyway.
.At the risk of repeating myself, this is the worst of the “trade the veterans” arguments. In fairness to David, though I’ve seen it pop up in otherwise reputable places – Fangraphs for example – was it Dave Cameron? – even (if memory serves) Keith Law. But the fact that otherwise smart people make the argument doesn’t make it a good one.
Yeah, let’s trade overpaid veterans so we can sign overpaid veterans AND lose draft picks.
Look, there are some rational (wrong, IMO, but rational) arguments in favor of trading our best players for B and C prospects. This isn’t one of them. The “let’s intentionally lose next year” argument is pretty bad, but it is better than your plan.
Lee turns 36 next year. What is his elite ‘baseball’s life-expectancy’ at that point. Maybe two years?
Moving him makes sense now at his greatest value. Perhaps in the off-season.
So 2 year with a vesting option for a 3rd (or just 3 total) for 13 million per is being discussed for Utley. I say that’s a good deal for the Phils.
why even worry about that now
Where are you seeing that? That would be a great deal if true….
That’s precisely what I envisioned and, yes, it’s a good deal and if Utley plays 120-140 games a year, it might be a great deal. On top of that, Utley will help players like Asche (he patterns himself on Utley and, well he should) and Ruf and Hernandez enormously, just as Halladay helped Kendrick.
Obviously, we are not privy to the trade negotiations, but if the return is not significant enough, I have no problem keeping Lee and Utley and Papelbon for that matter. I don’t care what the Phillies spend and, although it is likely a pipe dream, the Phillies will be better with Lee and Utley and Papelbon next year. What good does a “salary dump” do for us as fans? Perhaps we have a return of the Wheez kids of 1983? What if everyone actually stays somewhat healthy (yes, Ryan Howard chief among them)? What if Ryan Howard also comes back and, with significant recovery time, plays at 75% of his contract value? What if Halladay comes back on a 1 yr deal and performs at a #3 level? What if they pick up a couple of bullpen pieces? What if Ruiz signs a 1 yr deal and gets a prescription next year instead of taking meds on the sly? The bench will be better and cheaper with Galvis, Ruf, Hernandez, Mayberry, Fransden and/or perhaps an outsider. They also need a solid RF free agent that does not cost a pick. What if he catches the proverbial “lightning in a bottle.”
There are a lot of ifs but at least it will be interesting. Sell Lee, Utley, Papelbon for little prospect return and next year has significantly less chance for success. Now, I know the Phils still have little chance of success anyway, but they are closer with those guys than without them. I guess I would rather have entertainment next year rather than have to pray that another crop of Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez achieve something.
There are a lot of if’s there and I would feel more comfortable if the guys in question were not on the backend of their careers. You are asking a lot of an aging team.
Starting at pitching we have Hamels, Lee, and Gonzalez under contract for next season with Pettibone, Lannan, and Kendrick under team control. Someone in that group will go and given the salary constraints Hamels or Lee will be the ones on the block although someone like Lannan or Kendrick may fetch you more prospect wise due to their low salaries and ages.
You may not get a load of prospects for Lee but one has to wonder, at 36, how many years he has left at a very high level.
I’m afraid that Ryan Howard’s problems go far beyond health. He is simply unable at this point in his career to either defeat the shift or hit against LHP. He still really can’t reliably throw to 2B or lay off the low outside breaking ball. His bat speed has slowed enough that he is reduced to cheating on FB.
Fortunately, Ryan can still hit RH pitching so he will be MLB’s highest paid platoon player to use him at his maximum production.
I have to admit, that I’m really surprised, actually closer to shocked, that the Phillies haven’t traded anybody yet. I would have though that there would be at least a little activity given that the team has to change and a number of contracts are expiring. Well, five hours to go, we’ll know soon.
I thought for sure Michael Young would be gone. And maybe Papelbon but he’s really hurt his value since the first time we brought up trading him.
It is surprising to me but probably it shouldn’t be….
Utley- never made available
Lee- teams aren’t willing to give up enough due to his contract
Papalban- no one wants that contract
DYoung- no one wants him
MYoung- does want to move anywhere but TX
Rollins- won’t waive his trade rights
Ruiz- probably offered very little for him and thik they can resign him on a very friendly deal.
J.P. Crawford is incredible – doing it again this afternoon in the GCL
New Top 5
13. Z. Green
Not a bad top 15 and very deep with young talent
I’ve felt all along that we should only trade Lee if we got back a guy who could hit 3rd and play RF. We weren’t getting that guy from anyone. There is still the chance of trading Lee for that guy in the offseason, we’ll see. I’m okay with keeping Lee and running him and Hamels out there next year. With Asche (and Frandsen) at 3rd and no Halladay, they’ll have money to pay if they can find a free agent to play RF (the key to this team improving), another starting pitcher, a few relief arms, and another bat on the bench to replace Nix. They’ll probably resign Chooch although it will be very interesting to follow what happens to McCann. I could see the Yankees going hard after him. They key is whether there is a right handed RF bat out there for them. The Dodgers will have to decide what to do with Crawford, Kemp, Either, Puig and now Pederson. What would it take to get Pederson? One of the Tigers young outfielders? Offer Quinn for Pederson?
just read the cards are looking for catching help after molina’s injury. wonder if they’d be interested in ruiz?
They could pick up guys like Shoppach and Olivo for nothing I think.
yankees are interested in m. young, according mlbtraderumors.com.
So Ian Kennedy goes to the Padres for Thatcher and Stites and a “compensation round B prospect”. If you’re wondering why anyone of consequence isn’t getting traded it’s a combination of teams settling for embarrassingly terrible deals and teams not willing to pay anything for anyone. Now Kennedy has been performing far like the guy from a couple years ago but still. Can’t blame RAJ for not having been able to trade Lee for a decent package when the market is behaving the way it is right now. People thought even Kendrick might be worth something in the market but I have trouble seeing much of a deal out there.
After Garza trade, which I thought was very good for Cubs for a rental (Top50/Top100 MLB ready Olt, Top100 SP Edwards, Top200 SP Grimm, plus possible Ramirez who is a MLB 5th starter/reliever). That is great haul for a rental non-ace.
Lee is controlled, at salary that matches his production, he should be worth more.
Then Peavy goes for nothing.
Kennedy goes for near nothing. D’backs have great young SP prospects, maybe could have tried to trade Lee there but have to eat salary for that team. Getting Kennedy back would not be a bad thing. Oh well.
I think maybe the message is: don’t wait until the deadline to make a deal, if you think you’re going to make a deal. The two best trades for starters this season will be the Garza deal and the Shields deal–teams will give up better prospects in return for more innings, which is rational. But it seems like the whole strategy of, “let’s hold onto our ace until the deadline and then flip him for an inflated price” has gone out of fashion.
The Garza deal IMO not as good as it looks from that summary, chiefly because I don;t think Olt comes anywhere deserving top 50 or even top 100 at this point. I’m not as high on Asche as a few people around here are, but I think Asche is a MUCH safer prospect at this point than Olt, and he isn’t in anyone’s top 100. And I’m not sure Olt’s ceiling is even all that much higher.
I think Olt has bust written all over him, and I don’t think the Rangers make that deal unless they are of the same mind.
So, Bud Norris goes to the Orioles for LJ Hoes, and another piece apparently. Yeah…
2014 Free Agent Outlook – Hitters
For position players, I only see improvements coming for the OF. Not sure what trade options Phillies have. I’d see if I could get a good piece for Kendrick today.
C: Only players I see better than Ruiz (who knows the pitching staff already) are McCann and Saltalamacchi.
1B: Stuck with Howard, just platooning with Mayberry/Ruf seems like the best option
2B: Utley is much better than anyone other than Cano.
SS: Would anyone want Peralta after suspension or Furcal after injury over Rollins?
3B: Wow, terrible options. I guess Chavez beats out M.Young, Polanco, and Youkilis?
LF: Obviously Brown has one spot, either LF or RF
CF. Thre are better options than Revere but would Phillies then try to trade Revere? Ellsbury, Choo, and Granderson.
RF: Pence, Cruz, Beltran may all get qualifying offeres. I doubt Hart gets one so he is my target if I am the Phillies. Maybe Morse.
LH PH: Must get someone better than Nix. With Mayberry and Frandsen and Kratz on the bench then 4th guy for backup SS, that leaves one spot for the primary PH. I’d see if Kubel would take a $1.5M deal. C.Hernandez needs a 25man spot so I wish he’d be able to play SS in a pinch as well, so he could be the last bench guy.
Galvis and Ruf start in the minors as first callups.
Well, that was kind of an anticlimax… The biggest deal of the day ended up being Bud Norris for LJ Hoes. I really view the Phillies failure to acquire someone like Hoes at the deadline as a real opportunity. Think of all the puns we’ll never get to make now. But instead it’s the ‘Stros who got Hoes in different area codes.
I did not know about Hoes before today. When I saw it posted on ESPN, I thought “Norris for Hoes” was a bad joke.
Of course, I meant “lost” opportunity. I’m a little shocked by the typos I make on here sometimes. I wonder if it could be a sign of early onset dementia?
I know this isn’t popular, but I appreciate that RAJ didn’t take a bad deal just to do a deal.
My thoughts exactly. It’s pretty clear from the deals that got done that there were no good deals out there for any of the sellers.
Of course you’re right.
The real irony is that the kind of deals we could have made would have been LAMBASTED on this site and among other Phillies’ fans.
What could possibly be a bad deal for Young? Take whatever the last offer is at 3:59 and move him. Leaves at end of year for nothing
Has it occurred to you that no one (among the few teams he would approve a trade to) wants him? Just because some teams expressed interest at some point does not mean, at the end of the day, that any of the (apparently) 3 teams that he willingly have gone to wanted to take him.
Why does the thought of the Phillies being mediocre seem to entice certain people, isn’t it better to pick in the top 5 than to pick 15th. I’m fine with them being terrible, it will be the quickest way for them to get good again. I know there’s no viable replacement for Chase Utley in the system, that doesn’t bother me because I also know Chase Utley isn’t going to be around when this team becomes competitive again. The cubs are a fine model for the Phillies to follow, avoid free agent signings, sell off veterans even at 50 cents on the dollar, and spend as much as possible in the international markets. I’d rather the Phillies be 100 loss awful for 5 years than 85 win mediocre for 10.
That’s an excellent way to get a much worse TV deal than they should.
They’ll never be 100 win bad, but struggling to stay at .500 isn’t going to sell a TV contract, without an understandable plan to get back to 90 wins.
Yes and selling everything off for no decent prospects and beginning a rebuild with no end in sight won’t be any better. In fact much worse.
It won’t because they will be awful and get a succession of top 5 picks and getting elite talent in this system is a plan for rebuilding.
And the picks take 2-3 years to get to the big club and might not even pan out
Of course they may not, there’s always risk with prospects, but given the new slot system teams can generally take the best talent at the top of the draft. At least that would be an actual plan rather than just hanging around in baseball purgatory.
My plan is maintain semi-competitiveness for the 2nd wild card spot and draft all the while. I don’t advocate a precipitous drop of everyone on the big league club. Scouting will likely win out in the end anyway, regardless of draft position.
This not the NBA or NHL where that strategy pays off. I doubt if you owned the Phillies that you would actually do the steps to make us the Florida Marlins.
The TV deal will be what the 4th/5th largest TV market will garner. Less then the top three markets and more then the 6th or 7th markets.
At this point in time, it is going to take a lot of effort to get the Phillies up to 85 win mediocrity. It is looking more and more that we can’t reach 81 wins this year, after falling to that level last year. The core is a year older and the injuries are showing more and more. Lots of holes to be filled in a bad FA market. Biddle not looking like he’ll be ready to help next season. Ditto Joseph and Valle. Martin is still iffy. It’s down to Gonzales, Asche and Rupp and hoping that the youngish (they were college guys when signed and have already had a couple shots) can turn the corner next year. We won’t be 100 win bad. Too much $$$ for that, but the $$ are becoming less useful than they once were.
Well you dont have to be mediocre for 5 years if you have a real gm, not a home grown puppet. With there money, they can go after choo, and garza, and not be a big deal, they can pay the tax like the yankees, they are a cash cow right now, so why should it have to take five years, the cubs split a market, we dont.
If the Phillies were not going to pay the luxury tax under the old CBA when they were a 95 win team they certainly are not going to pay it under the new CBA which is significantly higher.
Might as well send Asche back to LHV, Cholly will bat him once every three games. After all, we are still in it!
He’s starting at 3rd tonight…Not that facts matter. I suspect he might not play him much against lefties though.
This organization needs to make some serious philosophical changes, the move I would make this offseason has nothing to do with players, I would fire Rueben and give a blank check to Matt Arnold Tampa’s director of scouting and let him rebuild this organization the right way. I am so frustrated by the complacency of Phillies fans right now, don’t you all see where this is headed.
I think everyone would be glad to get rid of Ruben.
Alex I Really hope that I am wrong, but amaro is here for at least three more years, no matter how bad they become. mongomery wont fire him,
You are absolutely right Roccom it’s just so frustrating and when they replace him it will be with another yes man that doesn’t rock the boat and who despises analytics. My only hope is the relationship with Arbuckle could be repaired because at least I trust his eye for scouting and because he does value prospects.
Relax. Phillies miss the playoffs next year…Amaro is gone…adios amigo. Monty lets friends go, he did it with Wade.
yes romus only took eight years of not making playoffs, and bad contracts to burrell, liberthal, abbreau, all no trade and bad deals, a bad trade of schilling for 20 game loser , a failed first round draft choice lee, and a drunk, padilla, what a gm
So then you only have three more years of Ruben!
Lighten up Sawyer….Monty will let him go after next yead if they tank and miss again.
What bugs me about this – as someone who has been on the remove Amaro bandwagon for a long time – is the timing. It’s really as clear as can be that decent offers for our veterans just weren’t there. Sure, there’s SOME room to argue that trading our two best players for a few B and C prospects might have been the way to go – I don’t buy it, but you can make the argument – but to lambaste the GM because (in essence) he failed to intentionally lose to bolster the team’s draft position over the next couple of seasons – well, that’s a bit uncharitable to say the least.
I would add that “tanking” in baseball is, in contrast to, say basketball, never a good strategy – but even for those who disagree, to criticize Amaro for not doing what no GM ever does (no one tanks in baseball, except for the Marlins, and for them it’s a way to line the owner’s pockets) is more than a little unreasonable..
I mean, there’s PLENTY to criticize Amaro for with getting petulant because he couldn’t convince other teams to trade us elite prospects for veterans (which seems to be the REAL motivation for the anger).
There are examples of when tanking does work. There is the nationals and marlins and then there is KC and Orioles.
In any case, I think the Phillies will be maddeningly up and down. D Brown, Revere, Halladay, and Gonazalez show up; but our bull pen remains the same… we’ll win a few more, kinda contend; but ultimately end up below 500.
I think better deals are found in the off season; but I also think this is a new era where without the comp pick with the veteran, there isn’t as much willingness to trade for them.
And that makes me wonder if the league is going to get younger quicker.
“I would add that “tanking” in baseball is, in contrast to, say basketball, never a good strategy – but even for those who disagree”
Larry – most of our differences in the past have centered around ‘opinions’, with my take being that an opinion can rarely be wrong (and I’m often curious as to why you exhaust so much energy trying to convince others that there subjective comments are incorrect in the first place). One could suppress another’s opinion, but to contend that an opinion can be wrong contradicts the very nature of an opinion. Perhaps this is an odd beginning to a post where I am about to agree wholeheartedly with you. But with respect to the comment above there can simply be no ‘opinion’, and there can be no disagreement. There is absolutely no advantage to losing games intentionally in MLB and anyone who would claim otherwise is hardly worthy of the time it would take to rid them of their confusion. I could pick a number of reasons as to how this would be an asinine strategy, write a detailed missive for each reason, and still not come close to convincing those who are foolish enough to think otherwise. So why bother? Rhetorical question of course
Oh snap. I was about to end the last post by stating ‘and let someone bring up the Nats as an example’. So of course, someone brings up the Nats as an example.
Tanking aside (I actually think there are some interesting discussions to be had on that topic, but probably not worth debating at the end of the day), I want to talk a little about “opinions.”
Now, I’ll admit that I can sometimes be a little more dogmatic than I should be on opinion issues.
That aside, I think there are different kind of opinions. Some of that are “just” opinions – I mean, if someone says “I prefer watching hungry kids to watching tired veterans,” well, what can you say to that, aside from expressing a different subjective preference?
But there are other kinds of opinions that aren’t like that. People can have an opinion about how good a prospect is. Heck, half the threads on this site would disappear if you couldn’t debate that sort of thing! And while one should, I agree, tend to be a little less dogmatic when addressing some of these types of opinion issues than when dealing with pure factual issues – the fact is, you can disagree with an opinion, challenge an opinion – and, not ALL of these types of opinions are equally valid. To take an extreme example, someone says “I think Steve Jeltz was the best Phillies shortstop ever.” Sorry, that’s not a reasonable opinion.” And it’s okay to say that.
To take a concrete example, let’s talk about our friend Cody Asche. Some people have expressed the opinion that he is likely to be a better than average major league third baseman, or even a star. Now, that’s fine, people are entitled to that opinion. But it’s fair to ask (as with any opinion that is not a mere matter of subjective preference), why do you think that? Possible answers:
(1) “I think his make up is so good that he will exceed expectations” – fair enough, one can disagree, but not much you can say about this – could be true, certainly no way to prove it wrong.
(2) “His minor league performance is the type of performance that is typical of future stars” (maybe throw in the odd Utley comp here) – now, on this point we’re veering away from opinion to fact – and I don’t think there is anything wrong with saying either “no, that’s not the type of performance that’s typically associated with future stardom,” or “the Utley comp is not helpful, and here’s why.”
Not saying that you would necessarily disagree with any of this, I just thought it would be interesting to set down my thoughts on the topic..
Right – and in scenario 2 we veer away from opinion where subjectivity rules and enter into a realm where comments are no longer considered an opinion. ‘Typical’ can be measured. I could say, “In my opinion, 3 + 4 is greater than 2 + 6.” Hardly an opinion no matter what I call it.
Completely disagree, tanking is an excellent strategy, with the way the draft is now structured if you sit at the top of the draft you can take the best players so now the teams that are awful truly have the opportunity to take the best players. You’re alternative of being patient seems aimless, why do you want to strive for mediocrity. You compare tanking to turning it to the Marlins, I say it could be more like what the Cubs are doing.
Right, because the Cubs have been the model franchise when it comes to winning.
I think Chuck LaMarr was right!!!!
Okay, even I am upset at the report that they turned down a deal from the Yankees for M. Young. In and of itself it is not a big deal. I’m sure that the prospect offered wasn’t much – minor league filler most likely, a “C” prospect at best.
Though if it means that Asche rides the bench in Philadelphia for the next two months, it will become – still not a big deal but at least a little deal. I’m not as invested as some people in getting Asche major league experience this year – but if he isn’t playing every day in the majors, he should be playing every day in AAA.
But more to the point, like the original M. Young trade, and, to an even greater extent, the D. Young signing, it’s an indicator of more serious dysfunction.
I don’t think there’s any scenario where Asche rides the bench or gets sent down to LV. He’s here to stay and will play 3b most of the time if not exclusively. Ruf needs a look in LF unless we continue the dream that Howard will sit against lefties next season. Unlikely to happen. MYoung plays out this season at 1B.
RHoward should not be in any rush to get back this season. What’s the value of him getting another 50ABs? He should be shut down
It would be a disappointment for me if Asche doesn’t start the vast majority (85/90%) of the remaining 55 games. Maybe I am wrong, but I think most Phillies fans feel the same.
No doubt Romus. We need a good long look at Asche at 3B and another at Ruf in Left.
Hell, we should even promote all those young bullpen arms from LV. Huh? We already did that and they bombed? Never mind then. In all seriousness, I still think De Fratus will be a solid bull pen arm. Unlike the likes of Aumont, Diekman and others, De Fratus has always had exceptional control in the minors.
Though getting all the bullpen arms up for further auditioning cannot hurt anymore then what is going on now. Currently the Phillies pick tied for 11th in the draft order. There is the real possibility they could go all the way down to the 4th pick if the Brewers and a few others gain steam. Of course if they go that way with all the youngsters and start losing, someone like Paps will again voice hisr disdain for ever taking the $50M and signing up for this!
Very unlikely. Perhaps 8 – 10.
People are sitting there and assuming they were actually getting a prospect back. It was probably just organizational filler and covering 80 percent of the salaries. Theres no point in the Phillies salary dumping when they have the money to pay them. Ill take my chances in the waiver period when teams realize they need a bat… especially at catcher.
John Heyman literally has 1 front office contact and its the Yankees and hes whoring out information he could get personally for a story. Follow the news of some actual writer with some credibility. Cause all he did with this article was burn any bridge he had with the Phillies organization.
Apparently Amaro said who was offered in the deal it was Tommy Kahnle, a reliever in AA with 6 BB/9
lol there ya go
If that was the best deal out there I’d take my chances and see if I can get a better deal on waivers
A needlessly and unfair indictment of Kahnle, who actually is a legit, if somewhat fringy, prospect. Yes, that is his BB rate. He also gives up only about a hit every two innings and has a K rate of 10.5/9. Even with that high BB rate, his WHIP is still less than 1.2. He’s certainly not a primo prospect, but we still have hopes for some of our minor leaguers, like Ethan Martin, who have BB rates not much worse than this.
and the alternative is keeping young and getting nothing for him when he leaves at the end of the year.
Are we supposed to be impressed by relievers in AA with pretty big control problems. At least Martin is a possible starter with much more highly touted stuff. Do you think it would have been a good deal for the Phillies? Guy’s got at least a year or two before he can probably even get to a semblance of decent control. More likely he just sucks in AAA though and doesn’t even reach AAAA status. To put it in perspective, Aumont was only walking 3.2 per 9 as a reliever in Reading.
i don’t necessarily think amaro should’ve taken the deal. but young being on the roster better not keep asche from getting ABs.
I think its going to hinder Ruf getting at bats… hopefully its Delmon Young hitting the pine. Young goes to first, Ruf to LF, Dom to RF and Asche at 3b. Thats the likely scenario in my mind. Also means Frandson isnt going to get any time.
Yeah, we are supposed to be at least mildly impressed, because at age 23, control can still be mastered, while the stuff needed to limit batters to a hit every two IP while striking out 10.5/9 is a lot harder to come by. Yes, he’s at least a year away. Why is that a problem? We’ll still need relievers a year and a half from now. The guy is like a lotto ticket and a far better bet than the better-control-but-not-much-stuff guys. He looks like he’s got as good a chance as Dieckman or Aumont, for example. Had we gotten him, he is arguably our first or second highest ceiling reliever in the upper minors. And giving up Michael Young costs us what, exactly?
Yeah, Aumont once had 3.2 BB/9 at Reading. Every other year since 2009, at every level, he’s been around 6, sometimes a lot more. The thing is Aumont has stuff. As does this guy. AUmont’s K rates have generally been excellent, but he’s never come close to matching the H/9 that Kahnle has shown this year. Sure, obviously some BABIP luck involved and not huge sample size, but this guy’s career hit rate in 200 IP is like 6/9IP, which is truly excellent. His career K/9 is 12, which is also truly excellent. This guy has talent. He needs to harness it, but so do all of our own upper level reliever candidates.
+1 Kahnle would of been a good get for Young…
does anyone know what boston was willing to give up for lee? or didn’t negotiations get that far?
Well I think we can infer from the deals that got done, that neither Bogaerts or Bradley were on the table.
I wouldnt be surprised if Bradley was in play… but with his struggles this year hes not as enticing as we all think.
Was able to catch three innings of the GCL Phils today before lightning led to the game being suspended. Spent about 20 minutes talking to Kevin Brady behind the backstop. Good guy. He was there on rehab and was tracking pitches for the Phils. He suspects that he may finish the season rehabbing in Clearwater with an outside chance of reporting to Lakewood or Clearwater later this year.
He’s an Orioles fan and was actually drafted by Baltimore out of high school before electing to attend Clemson. And he hates the Nats which I found pretty amusing.
Also somewhat amusing; I was talking to another Phan who was taking video and I was mentioning the plate discipline that Crawford has shown in the early going. Almost on queue, a fan behind me yells “You gotta swing at anything close to the plate”, to which I replied, “Do not follow that advice!”
Steve, what was Kevin Brady’s injury? Hope he can recover 100% and build on last years work.
You know philabalt, I’m really not 100% certain. I almost asked him but we were talking about a line drive bunt base hit (not a typo) by one of the Tigers players and we never came back to the subject of him being in EST. I want to recall shoulder fatigue or shoulder tendonitis but really not sure. I’m fairly certain that it was nothing structural or altogether serious though. Wish I had more info but perhaps someone here can confirm
and I should add; I asked him when he last pitched and he said ‘yesterday’ or ‘a few days ago’. One or the other. So at least we know that he’s throwing
heyman says the yankees inquired about ruiz and were rebuffed.
Im sure they wanted him for free as well. Losing Ruiz has serious financial repercussion for the Phillies marketing wise. Ruiz has value in waivers as well.
The Phillies are scrambling for guys who can catch in the bigs at the moment, as in just needing someone half-way good to fill the spot behind the plate for 50 games. Ruiz has been truly bad offensively, but can at least do well defensively.
Monty this morning at the SABRMetric conference in Philly:
“I think there’s a misconception, I think we have a lot of emphasis on statistical analysis. But we’ve known to be a club that believes in scouting. And I don’t see those two things to be mutually exclusive. That’s not how we operate. If there was one stat we used, it’s weighted on base percentage (wOBA) in other words, taking into account extrkna base hits and weighting accordingly as a primary tool.”
Montgomery explained how these calculations, along with character evaluations (Pat Gillick used to take potential Phillies out to lunch prior to any signatures), assemble the team you see on Opening Day.
“People can’t always judge our desire by our acquisitions; do you see what I’m saying? People say, ‘well look at that, look who they took. Don’t they know this player can’t do X and Y?’ Yeah, but we have to think he’s better than who we have playing there. He doesn’t have the tools that fit some of the people in the room, we know that, but we see that player to be maybe a defensive player that’s better. Ben Revere is a good example of that. We are using those tools along with scouting.”
John Heyman is less accurate than a meteorologist and throws a lot of rumors out that just don’t materialize. I think that todays journalism is really going downhill in a hurry.
Ruben said this morning….he will definitely be making moves soon to help the club….July 31st is just a date.
Anyone have any word on who was placed on waivers?
They don’t necessarily need to waive anyone but nonetheless they won’t announce the corresponding move until tomorrow. JC seems like a possibility to be sent down
Can’t send down JC without DFA (out of options)
Wasn’t aware. Thanks Matt
Martin is already on the 40-ma roster
I find it funny that some people are suggesting we keep all of our veterans together next year instead of getting something out of them while we can. In my opinion I find an 80 win team no less depressing than a 65-70 win team. Either way you aren’t getting anywhere. Now I understand you want to use these older players for “retooling” but by the time we have built around them Lee, Papelbon, MYoung, etc. etc. will be in their mid to late 30′s and quite possibly not even major league average ballplayers. I can’t blame Amaro for not selling Cliff Lee for nothing, but surely there were other deals to be made.
You build around Brown, Hamels, possibly Lee, possibly Utley, Pettibone, and Revere.
So you have named the two guys who are at issue – Lee and Utley – as people you would possibly “build around.” Who do you think we have been debating about? Those are the only guys who really matter in terms of the trade deadline. Those are the only guys that would have gotten us anything – B prospects instead of the A prospects that people imagined, but B prospects can help.
All of the rest of the guys were getting us “C” prospects at best. A couple of them were untradable. It’s not so much that people are saying we should keep those guys; it’s more a combination of “who cares” and “no one wants them” and “they can veto a trade.” (I probably value Rollins more than I do the others, given that we don’t have anyone to replace him, and no, I did not forget about Galvis, but it’s a doubly moot point, as he won’t waive his trade veto rights, and he also wouldn’t have gotten us more than a “C” prospect.)
Now, as for “what’s the difference between and 80 win team and a 65-70 win season?” The difference MIGHT be the difference between a 120 million payroll and a 180 million payroll 4 years from now when it might actually matter again, because of declining attendance and the new TV deal.
I mean, you keep making this point and people keep disagreeing with you. You say you “don’t understand,” but some have us have explained it again and again. Disagree by all means, but don’t pretend to not “understand” the contrary argument.
And, while this may be the pot calling the kettle black, give it a rest. How many times have you expressed that opinion in the last three days? We get it, we really do.
Larry it seems to be the opinion of some people on this site, and other places, that prolonged bad TV ratings won’t have any effect on the TV deal. I guess they don’t think the difference between the Astros deal and the Dodgers deal is large enough to care. And this is their justification for just blowing this team up and getting really bad in the immediate future. Or others say things like their deal will reflect being in the 4th or 5th biggest TV market. While I believe that to be true to an extent there is no way a massive downgrade in TV ratings wouldn’t be used against them in negotiations in my opinion.
I agree completely and, by the way, it’s easy to miss the power of attendance. The difference in revenue between drawing 42,000 people a night and 27,000 people a night is staggering in terms of ticket sales and related stadium revenue. Let’s say the difference amounts to $40 per paying customer per game. Well, that’s $68,000 a game which, when you multiple that times 83 games (include preseason series as one game), comes to $56 million in revenue a year. Wow! So, to a great extent, by increasing revenue to keep the team in contention, they are (or, if they are doing their jobs right, should be) recovering the money on the back end in fan revenue and priming the pump for a good TV contract. And if you increase the delta from, say 44,000 per night (first place team) to 22,000 a night (bad team), at $40 of revenue per customer, you are talking about a $73 million in annual increased direct fan revenue and, believe me, that does not take into account large licening revenues and other revenues that come to a successful team. These are back of the envelope numbers, but you get a sense of the amount of revenue we are talking about.
I meant to say, by increasing payroll ti improve the club, they, in turn, increase revenue.
This is true, but they have to actually improve the team. Continuing to hang around or just below 81 wins isn’t going to get the job of maintaining TV ratings and attendance all that much more than 70-75 wins will. Both will be viewed by fans-turning-into-disgruntled-absent-fans as unacceptable. We’ve been there, before. I agree that we desperately need to keep attendance up, we surely don’t want a repeat of the post-1993 death spiral. But… if we are at 80 wins next year, it is better to be there with some promising young guys and realistic help on the horizon than simply staging a nostalgia party. Fans need to see/believe the team is following a realistic path back to real contention fairly soon. When I read ‘let’s bring back Halladay for two years’, I think that nostalgia party is the primary thing some fans want. To bet big $ or even sort-of-big dollars on Ruiz and Halladay and big $$ on Utley over the winter and thinking that puts us on the road to improvement, would be a very bad course of action. We’ve got Utley, Lee, Rollins, and Pap coming back. At least I hope all the happy talk I’m seeing in the media about Utley coming back is true. That’s fine. No big $ gambles on Ruiz and Halladay. It’s just too much doubling and redoubling down on the old. I fear that both are done and it would be both money down the drain as well as precluding doing anything productive this winter.
That is my biggest fear as well. The worst thing is they spend lots of money trying to keep the core together and the downhill slide gathers speed leading to a 90 loss season. We are looking at mid-70′s in terms of wins this year so a few more are not out of the question.
We are a .467 team right now and that translates to 86 losses; not a far slide to 90.
“This is true, but they have to actually improve the team. Continuing to hang around or just below 81 wins isn’t going to get the job of maintaining TV ratings and attendance all that much more than 70-75 wins will.”
This is precisely what I mean. To the casual fan if its not playoff baseball being played, its all the same.
And they are entitled to thier opinion. I’ve been accused, sometimes with some justice, of not respecting other people’s opinions, but now I think the shoe is on the other foot. I do, indeed, understand the opinions of the “fire sale crowd.” I don’t agree, and of course we now all know that the “overnight rebuild version” of that plan is a pipe dream, but IF you don’t think that a couple years of turning into the Marlins is going to effect the TV contract, and result in a prolonged attendance decline, then that becomes a viable strategy.
But it isn’t a mystery why those of us who want to avoid that fate feel the way that we do. Nor should we pretend that any big market team ever intentionally goes in that direction. The closest example you could find would be the Cubs, and they didn’t put themselves there intentionally (not are they quite a big market team in terms of revenue).,
The other thing is this. Tanking for a couple of years would be perceived, correctly or not, as an indication that ownership is not committed to winning. And yes, that would almost surely have an effect on the contract. It wouldn’t just be the losing, it would be the fact that they weren’t even trying to win.
It’s a bit of a different situation now that the deadline is over and Amaro did nothing. Im not exactly harping over the same exact thing as you’re making it sound. Im not going to start a lengthy argument since I already know your point of view on all of this. Just disappointed at the deadlines end result.
And maybe Cody Asche and Ruf. I keep watching Ruf and, as I do, I have the same thoughts I had before Brown had his big break through. While Ruf seems to struggle a little with breaking balls and super hard fastballs, it just seems to me that he can flat out hit and he has pretty decent plate discipline. I know he’s no wizard in the field (he’s got a heck of an arm though), but it’s a lot more fun to watch a game when he’s playing.
I see Ruf realizing his full potential in the AL with a mix of ‘in the field’ and the DH.
Kind of like local guy Kevin Mench did with the Rangers.
And hitting in Fenway with the Green Monster would be ideal for him.
So Ruben should sell the Sox on a Ruf for XBoggie exchange!
The fact that he can also play first and spell Howard (or essentially replace Howard if he gets injured again or gets off to a good enough start and can be traded) means I’d like to keep him around, especially since is trade value is so low. I’ve got a good feeling about Ruf and Asche.
Can we have Darin Ruf come in as defensive replacement at 1B? I thought Michael Young was bad at 3b but he is even worse at 1B as his lack of plays did not help Papelbon.
One more comment on Michael Young, he must be near the MLB record for being thrown out at home and he has a quarter season left.
Yankees signed Molina and may be a little over. Molina was ranked 5th (BA), right behind our hopeful guy to be signed next week, Encarnacion.
For the Phillies, tanking this season might allow them to sign a free agent without sacrificing their 1st round pick. Besides the financial ramifications, tanking would free them to sign that expensive right-fielder that would make their lineup more formidable. Signing Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz or maybe even Ellsbury or Beltran could give this team that boost in the short-term they’re looking for…but losing a mid 1st round pick in what looks to be a solid draft would further stunt the rebuilding process
What, tanking? To have a protected top ten pick, all the Phils need do is to play to their capacity.
You may be right…the Phillies would pick around 12-15 right now, so a weak finish could put them in the top ten…What picks are protected- top ten?
Teams with top 10 picks, can sign top level Free agents, without losing their 1st round pick.
You know my feelings on tanking – which in fairness I have never fully set out, mainly because it’s such a moot point with this franchise.
But has it occurred to the pro-tanking contingent that, at least with regard to the Youngs, that not trading them could lead to a worse record. That’s certainly the case with D. Young, and arguably the case with M. Young, who as a first baseman (where he will now likely play) is probably a below replacement level.
People who want to see us get a top ten pick should be thrilled that the Youngs are still on the team.
If they could retain Halladay in a reasonable 2 year extension, sign a quality right-fielder and extend Utley, perhaps competing in 2014 wouldn’t be entirely far-fetched if the division remains as weak as it is now. Or…
Perhaps Kendrick could be packaged in a trade for an outfielder? If Utley departs and is replaced with Infante, the Phillies could have two 1st round picks. Infante’s ability to play 2nd & 3rd would be a great fit, as they ease Hernandez and Asche into starting roles.
No reason to assume Halladay will ever be good again.
So, please explain why you think signing Halladay for his age 37 and 38 seasons helps us. He gave us about 40 awful IP this season and has been out with a shoulder injury ever since. What do you mean by “a reasonable 2-year extension”? Even if not all that expensive, it means holding a rotation spot for him, on the assumption he is 1) healthy and 2) actually able to pitch well at age 37. I’d rather go with Kendrick in the rotation. I’m thinking Halladay would cost as much and have less chance of pitching well and no value going forward, so it would be, apart from the nostalgia factor, a bad tradeoff. That said, if you are suggesting that this may very well be what the Phillies do, I can’t disagree with that very much at all.
Tuffy Gosewisch called up my Arizona after Montero was placed on the disabled list. He’ll serve as backup catcher for the D’backs. Good for him
I always liked Tuffy from his minor league days. Great baseball name as well. He’s quite a good defensive hitter. Unless he’s changed, never could hit.
Another blown save by Papelbon. He’s deservedly receiving tons of boos. He should keep his mouth shut from now on because he’s part of the problem.
If I thought that anyone would have given us even a bag of used baseballs for him, I’d be upset at Amaro (well, I’m upset at the original signing of course).
The question is whether he is just plain done, or suffering from an injury. There is no third option.
Someone suggested that he simply be released a couple weeks ago, and I disagreed. Now, assuming that he isn’t injured, it’s looking like that’s the best option, given what a jerk he is on top of being now completely cooked as a ball player.
But now maybe people can see why no team would touch him with a ten foot pole.
To think a month ago visions of Castellanos danced in people’s heads. I honestly didn’t foresee him unraveling this much.
Maybe if we throw in a good prospect someone would take him off our hands for nothing? I’d trade Dugan and Papelbon for nothing just to get rid of the salary, but I’m guessing we would have to give up one of our top two prospects to make that deal happen. As I said, release is the better option.
I do hope that fans are showering abuse on him. Normally I would not support that, but since is is almost as vile as D. Young I think it would be richly merited.
We can also hope for a career ending injury.
Larry you are full of the mucous of human kindness. Not that I blame you.
Can always put him on waivers and hope somebody is stupid enough to claim him. Actually, best bet is to DL him and hope he is healthier and better in 2014, and if he is, trade his ass before he regresses again.
Papelbon is so obstinate, he wouldn’t agree to go on the DL.
I always have a hard time getting mad at a pitcher for giving up hits on groundballs that aren’t hit very hard. The inning got uglier batter by batter though.
So you don’t think Papelbon could handle a demotion? (to occasionally serving as a setup man not the minors) His ego might not allow it, but I think he could’ve regressed, without being injured or “done per se”. We’ve seen 30-something short relievers lose their stuff and get it back, even if they’re never fully their prior selves.
Behind one run in the ninth with no outs and bases loaded. I KNOW I want Nix at bat. (:
amaro needs to be held accountable for this garbage of a roster. i’m absolutely speechless. what an absolute utter embarrassment.
The Phillies just used the following players in the ninth inning..
Delmon Young pinch hit for Michael Martinez, John McDonald pinch ran for Delmon Young > Asche > Mayberry > Nix > Ruiz > Kratz
How is it possible for a team with a $170 million dollar payroll to put forth such a sad pile of trash? All of that happened after our 4yr/$50+ million closer allowed 5 base runners in 1 inning. This organization is a disgrace.
nix should’ve been released two months ago.
Well, start with not quite $170 mill, then deduct $50 mill for Howard and Halladay, who aren’t playing. Then deduct another $12 mill for Papelbon, who shouldn’t be playing. Then what, $5 mill for Ruiz? You’re down to a not hugely expensive $100 mill or less team. When you let your old guys get this expensive, you are always going to have a third or more of your budget as dead money.
And it’s not 170 million either. it’s 159 million.
I forgot Halladay in an earlier post about the same topic. The simple fact is, once you get past those three guys, the team’s problem isn’t really being “overpaid.” The problems are:
(1) Howard/Halladay/Papelbon, negative value for 53 million. (I’m not including Ruiz; a down year for sure, but his contract was such a bargain that even so he is not clearly overpaid.)
(2) An appalling job of filling holes with reasonably cheap talent – the relief corp, the bench to a lesser extent, catcher and right field.
You can throw in a couple other factors – obviously, age is a little bit of a factor beyond the big three, but not nearly as much as you might think, again those three aside. Hamels down year matters too. Injuries are a small factor.
That’s not a defense of the organization. Two of the big three failures were preventable (Halladay was just a risk you run; his deal looked like a big underpay at the time, and they got two Cy Young caliber seasons from him). And factors one and two above are mostly the organization’s fault.
But it does mean that the notion that you can fix the club just by dumping the veterans is mistaken. The three guys that you would most want to dump are untradeable. Of course even then, you would be staring a horrible FA class in the face.
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but saying ‘except for those 3′ is a little like saying ‘other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?’ The biggest downs from last year and when the Phillies were good are Ruiz, Halladay, and Hamels, although Hamels has been having lot of bad offense and bullpen work in games where he has done well. Howard has been what Howard has been for several years.
Does the Phillies $158 mill include the bennies that the commish counts toward the cap?
Yes, it is a horrible FA class, which is one reason next year’s Phillies can’t be much better than this years.
Look at the glass half-full….we will have high draft picks in June.
And Ruben probably knows next year is a probabtion year, after Charlie is gone in October. Miss the playoffs once again and adios.
Yeah, my comment was directed at the segment of the readership who thinks that the state of the payroll justifies a fire sale. You don’t trade your reasonably priced players because you have a bunch of untradeable expensive players, and it doesn’t matter THAT much anyway given the state of the FA market.
Mind you, you might have OTHER reasons to trade those players. There are certainly players on this team that I’d like to see gone, or wouldn’t mind to see gone, and there were at least arguments for trading the two older players with value, even if I didn’t agree with them.
I mean, I WAS agreeing with your comment after all, just taking it further.
The only thing worst than a Bad Team is an Very Highly Bad Team
Very Highly Paid Bad Team (sorry)
Only thing worse than a very highly paid bad team is a very highly paid bad team that a delusional GM thinks is a band-aid fix away from being a contender.
Look, I think as little of Amaro as most but I really doubt he thinks the team is a band-aid away from a contender. Let’s slow down with the drama a little…
By what we can deduce, he simply wasn’t offered good packages at the deadline, and the two worst contracts on the team (perhaps the only bad multi-year ones) are untradeable. I do think you will see significant changes in the offseason.
But but that doesn’t fit the narrative mds! Why are you being reasonable and logical?
The question is will Amaro be around to make them…
Im really hoping to see a post from Roccom , just so i know he’s ok after this one.
I cant right now this topic is giving me chest pains.
And people think this team can be competitive in 2014. How? These guys aren’t going to improve with another year of age. Stupidity is trying the exact same thing for the 3rd year and expecting a miracle. There is no BABIP or returning to the back of your baseball card for mid-30s players. It’s called normal aging curve, not a mean waiting to be regressed to. Old dudes with bad arms don’t magically get better. Old guys with 3 consecutive years of bad legs rarely find the fountain , butof youth and repeat the performance of their late 20s. Nostalgia can be fun. That’s why you can watch old baseball games on TV. The bodies have wilted. The fire has gone out. All that is left is a core of entitlement, and a very big paycheck. Bringing back Ruiz and Halladay to team with Utley, Lee, Hamels, Rollins, Papelbon, and Howard just isn’t going to get it done. I guess bravery points are due for playing through pain, but both Howard and Rollins have refused to adjust their hitting approach to their diminished physical skills. It is still unexplained how Ruiz garnered a second drug violation, rather than a fairly common to MLB prescription.
Take a step back from the ledge, man
Sorry, but the desire of so many fans to glory in a nostalgia-fest can be frustrating and just encourages the Phillies in their current dysfunctionality. The same fans who viewed the 102-win 2011 season as a dismal failure because we lost In the first round of the playoffs, now clings to the ancient stars of that past era and the glory of the world championship, without even focusing clearly on what it is that they revere and what made it happen.
If you think the 2011 season was a great success, and actually I do, then there is at least some rationale in wanting to cling to Halladay. But if your golden memory is of the 2008 world champions, then you should look clearly at that team and realize that it was not a product of the Phillies huge FA orgy. Lee and Halladay were not a part of that team. That team was built on home-grown talent and not very expensive or high-profile additions from outside the organization. Yes, it had Lidge in his career year, his one-and-only great Phillies season, and they couldn’t have won without him.
But, the imported rotation ‘star’ was Jamie Moyer. A long and storied career, but not nearly the profile of a Lee or Halladay and not nearly the $/years of contract. The in-season FA signing was the quite pedestrian, mid-rotation Blanton. We also wouldn’t have won without him. The core of the team was the home-grown group of Howard, Utley, Pat Burrell, Rollins, and the dumpster dives of Jayson Werth and Victorino, and the emerging Ruiz on offense. On the mound the rotation featured the emerging Hamels, Brett Myers, and the now much more maligned than appreciated Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick won 10 games and the Phillies don’t get to the 2008 post-season without him either. We also got contributions from Madson and Happ.
Interestingly, our prior biggest FA acquisition Thome was gone, his contract having proven to be too big and too long, and the team having paid a lot of his salary to move him and make way for Howard. Their next biggest FA acquisition, Eaton, was a negative that season.
So… that team was built from the farm and from the trash heap. That team was the core of the just ended golden run. If the Philies want a new golden run, they are going to have to go back to being willing to lean heavily on the methods that produced the last run. That was the farm and the savvy dumpster dive. Yes, the big spending is nice and it most certainly doesn’t hurt to have a Lee and a Halladay and the wallet which makes them possible, but becoming addicted to that wallet as a way to solve your problems leads to dysfunctions. The team needs to acquire, develop, and trust new kids and it needs to beat the bushes and give a real opportunity to be productive major leaguers to the dumpster dives like Werth and Victorino. That is how this great Phillies era came about.
Having the big budget can provide shortcuts to getting back there again, but it can’t be most of the answer. As awful as 2013 has been, keeping our first round pick and adding Crawford to the farm was the right choice. Stepping away from old practices and risking big $ on the Cuban pitcher Gonzalez was the right thing and a step forward.
We need to keep holding onto our draft picks, spend the max of our allocation plus 4.99% both on the draft and international, sign more Cubans and maybe a Japanese established player and, give the kids a chance to play in the bigs and show what they’ve got, and not cling overly hard to nostalgia or the safety of the outside veteran.
In saying not to cling to nostalgia as fans, I’m not saying dump all the old stars. I’m saying we shouldn’t want the team to try to keep them all. Lee and Utley have performed well and we should want the team to keep them. Papelbon hasn’t but may improve over the winter. Doubt we were offered enough to trade him. I just don’t understand the fans who want to bring back both Ruiz and Halladay. I think they are both done. There is some logic to cheaply returning Ruiz as a one-year bridge to Rupp or Joseph, but we have enough starting pitching without gambling $ and a rotation spot on a two-year deal to Halladay. I’d rather find a reasonable non-comp FA catcher than bring back Ruiz, but recognize that might not be possible. Really, Kratz gave us more than Ruiz did this season.
Nostalgia is comforting, but you really can’t want the Phillies to bring back all the old dudes and expect a better outcome than we had this year. You also can’t rely on failed or injured old dudes like Michael Young and Adams to be the answer or the prematurely old Delmon Young. The fans and the team need to swear off the fascination with the ‘name’ player from outside the org and recognize that there is a greater chance of success with a kid or a dumpster dive or a dumpster dive who is still close to being a kid. The Youngs turned out better than could reasonably, or perhaps even unreasonably, be expected this year. It wasn’t enough. We remember the successful Hail Mary passes, because they are so rare. To try to succeed with a ‘safe, big name of yesteryear’ Hail Mary is even less likely to succeed. Safe and Hail Mary really don’t coexist well together.
I am not on living in the past. I would be all for trading anyone if I thought it helped the team. I just haven’t seen anything to suggets such a trade was on the table.
Regarding Amaro, it is very easy to hand out a big contract to fill a hole. It is quite another to creatively fill out a roster. Unlike his predecessor he has shown no ability to do that. (think back to Gillick’s masterful construction of a bullpen and acquisitions like Feliz, Vicotino, Jenkins, Werth, Eyre, Stairs, etc.)
Because of some untradeable contracts and little in the minors that can be used to obtain quality players via trade, creative solutions are what this team needs. The problem is we have a GM that has no track record of doing so.
I agree with you, apart from Jenkins.
Jenkins, along with Stairs had two hits–double and HR— among them in 2008…that without those two hits…no WS.
Victorino was an Ed Wade acquisition, but, yes, Gillick was much, much, much more creative and effective at piecing together a roster and his acquisition of Werth alone had tremendous value.
The Phillies could use a quality Rule 5 pick up for 2014. But pickings are so slim.
Yeah, we’re on the same page page with this stuff going forward, even if I think your view going backwards is a little too charitable to one person, and not charitable enough to others.
One thing I want to address is the “scrap heap” argument. On the one hand, I think it’s easy to overestimate how easy it is to do that. The 2008 team benefited disproportionately from that sort of acquisition (2 of their top 4 position players, 2 solid bench guys (Coste and Dobbs), their second best starting pitcher (Jamie Moyer)), but I think we have to put some of that down to luck. You can’t count on that.
At the same time, having a GM savvy enough to pick up the occasional gem from the scrap heap is important for sure. I haven’t seen any evidence that that is one of Amaro’s talents.
And that extends also to players who, while not “scrap heap” players per se, are non-stars available for a relatively cheap price. That’s especially true on the position player side (though then again, his record on relief pitchers isn’t stellar either). Part of that is filling out the bench, but part of that is filling positions of need where there isn’t an internal option or a good option via trade or FA.
Amaro isn’t a total zero there – I actually felt that he got a lot of unfair grief on this point last year, where, by luck of design, he managed to do a good job with those sorts of players. But his overall record on that score is not good.
“At the same time, having a GM savvy enough to pick up the occasional gem from the scrap heap is important for sure. ”
That’s really the issue with amaro. As you correctly say their was certainly some luck involved with the guys Gillick brought in, the sheer numbers of such guys he got contribuitonsfrom suggests at least some sort of eye for those types of players (not to mention the creativity to construct a significant portion of the roster that way). I really can’t think of even 1 such player that Amaro has brought in that contributed.
I think MYoung would have been such a player if his role was to be a utlity INF and PH
Juan Pierre worked out pretty well. 2 WAR ain’t bad for what they paid for him.
Pierre, but more on luck than design.
Mayberry of course. Really his one significant coup in that regard. People underestimate his value because injuries and poor planning have forced him to play a bigger role than he should have.
But that’s a sparse record for almost 5 years at the helm.
Yeah any example you can bring up doesn’t include any long term value like Werth did. As you say Pierre’s performance was more a function of luck than anything. He’s bookended last season with negative WAR seasons. And the Wigginton move offsets the benefit of Pierre really.
Mayberry is the best case of a good one with long term impact but the impact is so small that it doesn’t really absolve RAJ in this regard.
Kevin Frandsen. And if the GM/manager were smart enough to just let him play everyday he might’ve provided even more value.
Well, on the going backward, I do sometimes wonder how long you’ve been the fan, because some of your comments strike me as lacking a historical PHillies perspective on anything that happened prior to the last 10 years. For a guy who analyzes the players in such detail and uses the statistical tools, I’m surprised that you haven’t looked more closely into Phillies history. I get a ‘where is he possibly coming from’ sense, when I read you say things like ‘owners don’t get involved in player personnel decisions, at least not recently and not in baseball’. And yet, I know for a fact that it did happen. Not in some hoary past, but with the actual current ownership group of our Phillies. Like Jerry Jones and his cowboys, the Phillies owners are the only ownership group I can think of (well, I guess Nolan Ryan was a minority owner) who chose one of their own to act as the actual GM, and not for just a few seasons. I also remember that even after appointing a GM, Giles continued to actively meddle.
I’ve followed the Phillies since the days of Bob Carpenter, so I’ve had a chance to observe and analyze two changes in ownership, if you count Bob passing the ownership on to his son Ruly. With Ruly there was an immediate increased emphasis upon player development. When Ruly sold to the Giles group, there was an immediate de-emphasis of the farm and international talent acquisition. It was like throwing a light switch off. This sort of general organization philosophy and emphasis almost always comes from the top down. Even owners who don’t meddle at all in baseball management, do set out the goals and objectives and guiding philosophy for their hired professionals to follow, albeit with the guidance of their first batch of professionals — but once set, these philosophies, etc. change slowly. Second, people buy baseball teams for a reason. They could just buy REITs or mutual funds, but they chose to buy a baseball team instead. Most who do that want some input into how things are run. The Phillies silent partner owners, some who have admitted to be not at all baseball fans, are the exception here.
I think part of how I look for root cause ts of why the Phillies do what they do stems from my personality and training. I’m an engineer and an MBA. I like to figure out how things and organizations work. I was also a local politician for many years, so I have thought a lot about what Boards of Directors/owners can reasonably expect to and do accomplish and what prerogatives they maintain for themselves, rather than their hired professionals.
This has caused me to focus on what changes between owner groups, what stays the same and what changes when a new GM or field manager comes in, and how the Phillies decision making in a particular area either matches or deviates from the behavior of baseball teams in general and similarly situated teams in particular. Things that stay the same from GM to GM, I’m going to put on the owners/organizational philosophy. If it stays the same and is what all the teams do, I’ll put it down to being just another quirk of the very traditional baseball world that a Billy-Beane type has yet to address and exploit.
For managers and GMs I tend to dump them into the smart, average, and dolt buckets, based on their creativity, seeming intelligence, and occasional willingness to color outside the lines. I can get angry at a Bowa or a Wade or a Manuel or an Amaro, but when I’ve been yelling at them in my head going on several years, the little voice in the back of my head says: ‘he must be doing pretty much what the owners want him to do or he wouldn’t still be here.’ I do think RAJ is an intelligent and creative guy with a lot of varied baseball background and too much long-term ties to the Phillies. One thing I know for certain: ownership knew what it was getting when they hired him. He either has been around the Phillies long enough to have bought into the Phillies way, or else he is young, inexperienced, and ambitious enough to do whatever it takes to land and keep his first GM job. I guess in the end you are correct that it matters not so much why he does what he does, or on whose authority he does it, but only what he actually does. I can’t dispute you on that, only try to explain where the problems begin and, therefore, where real change must also begin.
We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this. I’ve been following the team an awfully long time (since before the ownership change). I just read that history differently than you do, and, even if you were entirely correct about the history, I think you draw inferences that are not supported by it. On the former point, for one thing, Giles’ role diminished substantially in 1997 when he stepped up to chairman. Montgomery, the managing partner, took over his role and IMO has been more “hands off” than Giles was.
I also happen to put more weight on Amaro’s public statements than you do. You and others have said (not in these exact words, but more or less) that he’s just putting out the party line. But even if that were the case, he does so in an inept way reflective of a poor understanding of … well, many things, but probably most particularly reflective of very poor judgment regarding position player talent. You’ve also said yourself how important getting good players off the scrap heap is, and you can hardly blame Amaro’s failures in that area on the ownership.
That said, you do say one thing which I heartily agree with: “he must be doing pretty much what the owners want him to do or he wouldn’t still be here.” I think that’s very true and a legitimate indictment of management, but not in quite the way that you think. I don’t think that means that they are telling him what do do, but it does mean that they are okay with his decision making, and at the end of the day that’s just as bad. The problem isn’t that ownership currently takes on too big a role in player personnel decisions, the problem is that they have poor talent judgment with regard to senior management. I think you can make a very good case that the run from 2007 through 2011 was very much in spite of Wade/Gillick/Amaro. None of those guys were top tier GMs. Gillick had enough strengths to balance his weaknesses, but even that is not good enough in the current game.
You know, you’re doing the same thing I’m sometimes guilty of allentown, focusing on an argument that very few people are espousing. Virtually nobody wants to bring Halladay back – I think one guy suggested it, but was shot down quickly. Support for bringing Ruiz back is a little stronger, but still pretty tepid, and I don’t think you’ll find anyone who would advocate bringing him back on more than (say) 2 years @ 5 million per year. And that only given the lack of options combined with the pitching staff’s comfort in working with him.
The real debate has been over Lee and Utley, and I think you’re in the camp that, given the options, would like to see them back.
As a side note, I think your comments about Howard and Rollins are unfair. Those types of adjustments for a player in their 30s are really hard to make, and often end up being counterproductive. I also wouldn’t completely give up on Rollins either; he’s come back from worse to have productive seasons. I wouldn’t count on it either, of course.
None of that means that most of us are expecting great things with next year’s group. I think the best, bend over backwards case you can make is that any further loss of performance from further aging is outweighed by small improvements in areas where there is currently a huge hole, and hope for a return to form of Hamels. Third base should be better with Asche. Solutions are less clear at Catcher, Right field and the relief pitchers, but all three are so bad that even modest improvements from either low priced FA options or even possibly internal options (Kratz, or Ruiz being resigned and having a slight rebound year; Ruf maybe in left with Brown sliding to right, I’m a skeptic but maybe I’m wrong; and some of the relief prospects finally coming through.
Now, I admit that even that is a little optimistic, and not likely to get the team to the playoffs, but what’s the alternative? You haven’t been one of the people with pie in the sky alternatives. Frankly there aren’t any even arguably viable ones, aside from the IMO dubious option of trading Lee and letting Utley walk. I’ve stated ,many times why I don’t like that option, but, for those who really don’t think that turning into the Marlins for a couple of years will have negative long term implications on the team’s finances, that’s a viable option. But I don’t think you’re one of those guys.
You are correct on both points and I really should have more self discipline on this, but the Halladay thing just annoyed me and I think is symptomatic of the Phillies trying to sell a great nostalgia show.
I think with some people who want to keep Halladay, it really comes down to the belief that because of his work ethic, he will be able to rebound. But as history has shown, it just doesn’t happen with power pitchers in their mid 30′s. Or maybe people think he can be like John Smoltz and become and effective closer for a few years?
Though I am in the trade Lee camp, even though it will hurt the team alot, but it’s better to sell a year early then a year to late.
I am for keeping Ruiz on cheap short contract, unless Rupp is good enough defensively to play. But I think regardless of who the other catcher is that Kratz should get the bulk of the playing time. Granted he isn’t the greatest offensively but does a nice job behind the plate, and he has the knack for getting timely hits.
As for Ruf he could be an OK stop gap in LF or in a platoon at first, but I don’t think he is answer for the right handed bat as this team is constructed right now. Though he might be good on AL team has DH/1st base back up and bench bat.
The thing with Lee though is that as long as he continues to pitch well he will be more tradeable as he runs down his contract. I think that has what scared teams of more than anything. I also think there will be a bigger market for him this summer when half the league thinks they have a WS shot. Plus contenders are more likley to part with a player or two off their major league roster in the offseason. Even next trade deadline, when he’ll only have a year plus the buyout left on his deal
The thing about Halladay – and I know that you weren’t necessarily stating your own opinion – there’s just no reason to take the risk. The team does not have huge payroll constraints the next couple of years, but it does have some. Moreover, it’s one thing to argue, as I have, that you don’t want to get rid of your top 2 players. But while of course there is some risk with Lee and Utley, it’s a lot lower than the risk on Halladay.
There’s also the issue that IF Morgan or Biddle or even Martin are ready at some point next year – admittedly the best two of those prospects haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory lately, albeit at least one of them for injury reasons – having Halladay on the team could block one of them. Maybe not a huge deal in 2014, but could become an issue in 2015, and I think Halladay probably gets a 2 year deal.
I don’t think Halladay should be resigned, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was. I think if he comes back this season and pitches well, ownership will take the decision out of RAJ’s hands and re-sign him. Hopefully to a short team friendly contract, for some reason I think Montgomery will want to see Doc and Chase retire as Phils.
As for Lee, I would like to see him traded this winter, I don’t feel very comfortable hoping that he pitches like himself till the ’14 trade dead line then be able to move him, because his cost is coming down. I know he is pitching like the ace he is but unfortunately father time is undefeated. I just don’t want a repeat of what happened to Doc, great one year then hurt the next.
Where do you guys stand on being a little aggressive with Dugan and Franco and moving them up to AAA for the last 10 games or so just to see if Franco’s swing needs to fixed, and to get Dugan started since he took some time to get adjusted to AA. I know it’s a double jump but they are going to AAA next year anyway why not give them a head start?
I say no to both guys, but I don’t feel super strongly one way or the other.
Franco’s approach in AA has been a mess. It’s PROBABLY just a function of the fact that he is so hot, and that, obviously, at the moment it is working. But it is an approach that will not work at the major league level, period. I think he can fix the approach – while he’s always been a fairly aggressive hitter, which I would not necessarily try to change, from all reports and drawing inferences from the stats, he has had a much better approach in the past, so he’s clearly capable of it. But let’s see him exhibit it in AA first. There’s no rush; he isn’t going to be in the majors in 2014 anyway, aside from a possible September call up.
That’s entirely apart from the swing issue; if approach wasn’t a problem, I actually think concerns about the swing are an argument in favor of moving him to AAA.
As for Lee, my feelings are quite mixed. I think that the fact that the most viable trade partner this past week was Boston was problematic in the sense that the current ownership there is not one to undervalue their prospects or overvalue veteran players in their mid 30s with huge contracts. And going forward, the same reasons that you want to trade him are the reasons why we’ll have trouble getting a good return for him.
I absolutely think that the team should shop him over the winter. I do think they should hold out for a good return, though. My biggest worry is that they won’t be willing to kick in money to pay part of his salary. IMO they are not getting even a decent return for him unless they do that.
I think the Gonzalez signing pretty much means Doc isn’t coming back unless Lee is traded. The 2014 rotation appears fairly set otherwise (Lee, Hamels, Gonzalez, Lannan, Kendrick/Pettibone/Martin)
I Think it means kenrick is gone.
RF: Nelson Cruz (He’d be a great stopgap before Dugan or one of the younger guys is ready, and could be had on a two-year deal like the one Cabrera signed after his PED suspension)
C: Brian McCann (There were no free agents worth spending big money on last year. McCann will be in his age 30 season and fills a major position of need for the Phils. He hits, he handles pitchers well and he’s good defensively. This is the guy you break out the checkbook for in the offseason).
1B: Howard/Ruf (Dropping Howard and platooning him against lefties won’t go over well, but there’s really no choice at this point).
RHP: Halladay (bring him back on an incentive-laden short-term deal. If he’s still got it, great. If not, there’s little risk of being on the hook for a ton of money)
The bullpen is obviously headlined by Papelbon, Bastardo and a hopefully rejuvinated Adams, with whatever free agents or young guys (Aumont? Martin? Giles?) help the team.
I think McCann and Cruz could bolster the lineup and help a very good-to-potentially-great starting pitching staff win a lot of games. They certainly wouldn’t be World Series favorites, but this team could stay competitive for a postseason berth.
Here’s the thing about McCann: I would consider that only if the team slips this year to the point where the first round pick is protected. If so, I think this is pretty viable.
Is McCann going to want to come here though? Not sure we’re the most attractive FA destination right now. Might not matter in a normal year, but you have to think that the few really good free agents next year are going to have plenty of suitors. McCann will have lots of choices as to destination.
Don’e agree about Halladay for reasons previously mentioned.
Papelbon I have little faith in, but I think their only option is to hope for a rebound unfortunately.
By my admittedly very rough estimate, that would also bring them fairly close to the luxury threshold. Will the team do that next season? Note that even an incentive laden deal to Halladay might put them over the threshold, or so close as to preclude any in season moves that would add salary.
I think the chance to catch Hamels, Lee and Halladay (I like the idea of bringing him back), playing catcher for the length of what will likely be a five-year deal (as opposed to the AL, where the pressure to DH would always linger) and hitting at CBP would be enticing enough to bring him here. There are still a lot of fans in the stands every night, and NL East players in particular have seen the love-fest Philly can be when the club is winning. It will still be an attractive destination for free agents.
As for the luxury tax … yes, it would probably bring them close, if not over the limit. But by not trading Utley and Lee, they’ve made it clear they want to win now, and the MAG signing demonstrates a willingness to spend to make that happen. If it means the team is winning again, putting butts in chairs at CBP and driving up the TV ratings (and the bidding for the TV deal), I think they flirt with the luxury tax and even surpass it.
I have a tough predicting what this organization will do but certainly you may be correct. Again, if it means losing a first round pick (right now they are in a 3 way tie for the 9/10/11 spots. By run differential, they are actually the second worst team in the league), I really don’t want to sign McCann.
One positive of a McCann sign is that, even at 30, in the current FA market, that’s a not that old. A 5 year contract brings him just to his age 34 season. Even for a catcher, there’s a good chance he retains most of his value for the contract.
Kind of off topic, but where the team finishes IMO depends a lot in my mind upon when Brown returns. If he returns soon, I think they are probably, despite the run differential, going to finish just out of the bottom 10. If Brown is out for an extended period of time, they could easily have a protected pick. I DO think that, if they do, the organizations should take advantage of it by making a big FA signing.
I agree that losing a pick would be bad, and having a protected first rounder would be ideal (even if it means the team has to continue to suck in order to secure it). That said, I’d sign McCann even if it means surrendering a pick.
I was against signing anybody that would cost the Phils the No. 16 pick last year, because I did not think the free agents were worth the cost of their contracts, let alone giving up a player that turned out to be Crawford (whom I love, by the way). But McCann brings value with his bat, his defensive instincts, his handling of pitchers and his leadership. And while the Phils have a lot of “could be” type prospects at catcher, none of them are anywhere close to sniffing the bigs, let alone contributing. He is the one player I can really see bringing something to this team that could help boost their chances of competing while Hamels and Lee are still at or near the top of their game.
Since they signed Lidge so he could retire a Phillie, they should’ve just had him close tonight. Would fit right in with the rest of the Sun City roster and couldn’t be worse than Paps.
All I can say is, Ruben should be thankful for Riley Cooper!
I hope the fans in attendance were yelling at Papelbon “We didn’t come here for this!”
My dad was at the game, that is exactly what happened actually.
There’s hope for this fanbase yet!
Waiver Wire question:
Background (thank you wikipedia): If a player is waived, any team may claim him. If more than one team claims the player from waivers, the team with the weakest record in the player’s league gets preference. If no team in the player’s league claims him, the claiming team with the weakest record in the other league gets preference. In the first month of the season, preference is determined using the previous year’s standings.
If a team claims a player off waivers and has a viable claim as described above, his current team (the “waiving team”) may choose one of the following options:
arrange a trade with the claiming team for that player within two business days of the claim; or
rescind the request and keep the player on its major league roster, effectively canceling the waiver; or
do nothing and allow the claiming team to assume the player’s existing contract, pay the waiving team a waiver fee, and place the player on its active major league roster.
If a player is claimed and the waiving team exercises its rescission option, the waiving team may not use the option again for that player in that season—a subsequent waiver would be irrevocable with a claiming team getting the player essentially for nothing. If no team claims a player off waivers after three business days, the player has cleared waivers and may be assigned to a minor league team, traded (to any team), or released outright.
The waiver “wire” is a secret within the personnel of the Major League Baseball clubs; no official announcement of a waiver is made until a transaction actually occurs, although information sometimes leaks out. Players are often waived during the post-July “waiver-required” trading period for teams to gauge trade interest in a particular player. Usually, when the player is claimed, the waiving team will rescind the waiver to avoid losing the player unless a trade can be worked out with the claiming team.
My question: In practice, how do GM’s make claims? I wonder how many claims the Phillies, for example, will put in. Is it typical that it would be zero or 1 after the July cutoff, or would it be typical for them to make 20 or 30 claims (on guys with club friendly contracts).
I have to think that there is some sort of unwritten rule that says that you will not put a claim in just to put in a claim (if you are a team that is out of the playoff hunt).
Some teams put in waivers to block an opponent from acquiring a player they need. Others put in waivers because they really want the guy. The Phillies have both gained and traded players based on waiver claims in past seasons. Waiver deals are not nearly as easy as RAJ was trying to make it sound in explaining why the YOungs are still Phillies. As your quotation explains, any other team in the NL and most teams in the AL can block our attempt to send Young to the Yankees. They are not obliged to offer anything of value for him. Their only obligation is to take him for free if the Phillies elect that route, in which case all we gain is salary relief. Even if the claiming team does offer something or the Phillies are willing to let him go for free, Young can simply refuse to waive his FNTC. This is why, if RAJ really was offered Kahnle and no need to send any $ with Young, he really should have accepted the Yankees offer. Hard to see how he can expect to do better in the waiver period.
Part of my frustration with some posters on this site is their willingness to excuse the little blunders, like not getting Kahnle as minor and to small to be of concern. But… the difference between winning and losing is the residual of a lot of these little errors over multiple seasons, just as the difference between going or not going to post-season can come down to which of two roughly equal teams’ managers makes the better in-game decisions or which team’s 3B coach makes the better decisions, or which team’s 1B coach is the greatest help to the running game. On the GM, upper management level, I’m talking about things like Kahnle, bringing in D Young instead of keeping Schierholtz, not signing a Workman or this year’s 5th and 6th picks, losing too many draft picks to sign FAs, not spending enough internationally, not giving major league trials to your AAAA players who are doing well, continuing to recycle a guy like MM. It’s easy to say it’s just the last spot on the bench or in the pen, we signed other good guys in the draft, we got somebody internationally that year. Other teams are going 110% to win and trying to be as perfect on execution as they can be. We should demand that the Phillies behave more like these model organizations.
Every season has at least 29 GM’s that came up short and 1 that was probably pretty darn lucky….
There is always someone to defend the phillies. 2 CHAMPIONSHIPS, in over 130 years. we are tied with the cubs for least amount, of titles of the original teams, and at least chicago has 6 basketball titles, some nhl titles, and one superbowl, we have every right to complain as fans, The ownership in this city for years, just doesnt know how to win, and we are stuck hoping we are the 69 mets, every year, it really starts to get to you, look at snyder he hasnt won since 76 and still cant find a goalie, disgrace, in all honesty, we havent had many owners who knew how to win. To me the first thing is go after the teams that have won and get some of there scouts, and fo people. the phillies did it with gillick, and then went back to lets hire one of our own, amaro, who is a moron, if you cant put together a bullpen in two years, with the money he had to spend, then what is he doing making deceison for this club, Now is the time to eat some money and move pap, I cant believe if you eat half his deal you cant move him, he is a cancer now, needs to go,
Atta boy Roccom keep fighting the good fight.
roccom….did you miss taking your medicine today?
I don’t view it that way. I view the post-season as a crap shoot and all 10 teams who make the playoffs as having GMs who have done a good job. Yes, you are right that the 1 is pretty darned lucky. The 2008 Phillies weren’t the best team in baseball in 2008, nor were they even the best Phillies team of the past decade. The 2011 Phillies team were a truly strong team and they crapped out in the first playoff round. If you count only the 1 GM whose team made it through the series of short series playoff rounds as the only GM who deserves to hold his head high, then yes, it is largely a matter of luck and the hot hand at the right time. If you evaluate over the grueling 162-game season to judge who managed to get into the playoffs, I think there is a lot less GM luck involved. If the Phillies had made the playoffs the past two seasons, I would feel that I had no serious cause for complaint.
I don’t know anything about this Kahnle guy – he has a good whip, lots of K’s, and walks a bunch of people (with regards to the last item – he would fit in with the Phillies based on the # of walks that he gives up). On the surface, he would seem to have something of an upside.
But – the prospect component aside – I would think that from a financial perspective, getting rid of Young just to dump the salary would have been something to consider. He is owed $5MM through the remainder of the year. That $5MM could go to signing an established middle reliever. The downside is that you lose Young for the remainder of the year. But, with this team not going anywhere – who really cares? No one is really going to the games to see Michael Young. The downside for RAJ would be that it was another trade that did not work out. But, with the financial savings, and this AA guy who has metrics that would seem to indicate an upside – that could have been his out.
I would love to really know what offers were made (or not made) – and what the owners told RAJ to do.
Pretty sure he is only costing 1 mill to 1.5 mill for us for the rest of the season. Even so, it’s not like they have to shed his salary. They have no future year investment in salary to Michael Young and it’s not like they’re pushed up against the cap. They don’t have to help out the Yankees if they don’t like what they’re getting back. I think Kahnle’s BB’s are the most telling part about the guy and he is likely worse than everything we’ve seen between AAA and major leagues this year. RAJ took a risk to see if he could get something better. If someone really wants him they’ll have to give up something more than Kahnle and if not they just don’t get him and no harm is done to the Phillies. There are so many better reasons to be upset about RAJ as a GM.
Young makes 16MM per year. I know the Rangers are picking up part of his salary this year (something like 6MM, if memory serves me). With roughly a 1/3 of the season left, I think it he has $5.3 or so left on his contract. Maybe there is something I am missing here, but not sure how he would only cost another 1-1.5 MM this year.
My take is that you can save $5MM this year, and use those ‘savings’ towards increasing the budget by the same amount next year (I guess this assumes you are not into the luxury tax threshold).
I hope you are right and that a better prospect will be found in the coming weeks. If one is, however, and assuming that the team receiving Young also picks up the remainder of his salary, you are still paying his salary between now and when he would be traded. So, if he were traded next week, the Phillies would be ‘out’ several hundred thousand dollars compared to if he was traded a few days ago. If a trade is made at the end of August, the Phillies would be out 2.5MM (again, assuming my understanding of what he is still owed is valid). In this scenario, the prospect returned would have to be 2.5MM better than the Kahnle supposed offer.
The Rangers actually kicked in 10 million dollars
I just looked – you are right – $10MM.
Still does not change my premise – basically give him away if needed, and take the $5MM in ‘savings’, and apply to a quality reliever. Give up 2 months of Young today for a full season of someone that should be decent for a year. (my assumption there is that the Rangers just cut a check to the Phillies for 10MM, and the Phillies get the money regardless of if Young is on the team).
In essence – trade him for cash savings to be applied to a free agent to be named in December.
We had a big help from back of the bench guy Matt Stairs. What would Michael Martinez have done that night in LA? But now Matt Stairs-quality players are being signed to fill two holes in the starting lineup.
Yes that certainly is a problem. Delmon Young is at best a DH, realistically a bench PH. His ego won’t let him accept that, or even playing LF instead of RF, or being platooned. That’s the problem when you go out and sign faded has-beens, the talent has faded, but the ego has not. Nor has D Young ever been confused as a nice guy or a guy willing to make whatever sacrifice was necessary for the team to win. The other Young is at about the same place in his career, although he actually had a real career and has merely been felled by age, and his ego also won’t permit him to take the role for which he is best suited. To fill the Matt Stairs role, you either need a comfortable with himself old guy like Matt, who knows he is just a power-hitting PH and is comfortable with that, or a young kid like a Rizzotti or Murphy who is just happy to be in the bigs in whatever role and has no attitude, because he has no real chance to be more than that. Although Stairs had some big individual moments as a PH, and is well and rightly remembered for him, his overall offensive numbers weren’t at all good. I mentioned Rizzotti and Murphy, who to me are clearly not major league talents as starting players, because they do have the power that Stairs had and would likely do as well overall as Stairs did. At the end of the year, you’d see a key HR or two and a very low batting average. I do agree with you that a team does need a power guy off the bench, something that we haven’t had this season. The closest thing is Mayberry, when he doesn’t start and he’s a better overall hitter than Stairs, by quite a large margin. Last night, I guess that guy was Delmon. Next year it might be Ryan Howard in a third of the games and Ruf in the other two thirds. Ruf will also give you the BA, though.
someone brought it up this up the other day. I really wish we had Matt Stairs in the outfield back in 2011 (yeah yeah, I realize that Stairs would not actually be in the outfield playing defense). Martinez makes a very nice catch off a ball hit by Chipper Jones – game goes into extras, Phillies win. Cardinals win wild card by 1 game over Braves. We face Cardinals, and get wiped out.
Yet another reason to not like Michael Martinez. I really hope he is a nice guy.
Can any Phillies fan not get a huge smile on their face when they think of that Matt Stairs bomb? I am 38 years old – but that would have to be somewhere in the top 10 of my favorite memories.
Here is the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE223pgVNuA
watchthe above, and smile, and forget about where the Phillies currently are..
okay – I need to get back to work – in one minute..
after that home run, perhaps Stairs could have used a slightly different choice of words on how it felt..
allentown seems to have covered it well but here’s an article I saw this morning that descibes how treams approach it…
Here’s a question. If RAJ’s comfortable trading away Schwimmer, who had future value, for what he did, how can he justify not trading Michael Young, who has NO future value, for a prospect who is far better than Art Charles?
The Phillies exile their young malcontents. It wasn’t so much Schwimer’s baseball performance as his mouth and pen that got him gone. Michael Young hasn’t played well, has no future here, but also hasn’t caused any angst for management.
We all know how screwed up this management is. So therefore a malcontent may have good reason.
Ruben Amaro Jr. is the best GM the Phillies have ever had. His trades and free agent acquisitions are on a different level than any other Phillies’ GM.
Really is this you, Sammy Amaro? How the heck are you doing cuz?
At the risk of feeding the troll… Paul Owens.
Monty being a lot more honest than a Phillies exec usually is:
Hey Monty, not being able to go 5 years of losing with a big money team like the Phillies means you’ve got two years to turn this ship around and the plan is: ? ??. Well he actually doesn’t give a plan other than to hope that eventually this blend of oldsters and some new kids will get it right. But heh, in the meantime he promises the family baseball experience with former stars whose names fan will identify and hopefully connect with.
The money quote:
“MLB.com: You’re like the Yankees now. The Phillies are in a market where you can’t tell your fans you’re going into a five-year growth pattern.
Montgomery: That’s right. We want to build on the fan identification we have with some players. Our offense hasn’t given us what we hoped for this year. We’re hoping that our veterans are going to combine with our younger talent and that’s going to eventually make the difference…”
That’s just wonderful. Really, you just can’t make stuff up that comes close to capturing the actual reality of how badly this team is currently foundering.
allentown, is that significantly different from your plan for the team? You’re not one of the crowd calling for them to go into total rebuild mode either. Sure, it’s not specific, but develop young talent while bridging the gap with the remaining veterans is more or less what you (and I) have been advocating. He sugar coats it, but can you blame him?
Now, you doubt that they’ll execute that plan well, and I share your fear. But that has nothing to do with his comments.
I guess it implies he’s bringing back more guys than we would necessarily bring back. I’d also like more talk of a plan to actually accelerate the flow of young guys. I wouldn’t say he’s sugar-coating, putting hope and eventually in the same sentence speaks to me of a long down period. I hope that’s not what he was trying to say, but that really is a very pessimistic statement coupled to the assumption that the fans will be happy to just have names they recognize. Makes me wonder if Young wasn’t traded and offers weren’t considered for Ruiz, because they want to resign both as part of next year’s recognizable names.
Well Ruiz we’ve talked about, and bringing him back would not be a bad thing at the right price.
M. Young on the other hand – that would be bad.
I don’t know if you want Ruiz back at any price. Over the last 25 years the best season by a NL catcher 35 years old or older was Chad Krueter’s 2.6 WAR in 2000. Take a look at this list. It’s pretty sobering:
Chooch is at best a nice backup after this season. It’s been an awesome run with him, but old age is a wrench for catchers.
Now you know why patton hated montgomery in world war 2, he was a lying general just like our monty, they must be cousins.
Okay roccom whatever you say
The upcoming new positional core would appear to be centered around Brown, Revere, Asche, Franco, Galvis (?), Hernandez (?) and who else?
I would add Dugan to that list. Would like to see an uptick in BB rate, a down-tick in K rate, but I’m not overly concerned considering he’s two levels higher than he finished last season. I like Asche, Dugan and Franco to be solid regulars and would even add Ruf to that group. But we don’t have a clear perennial All-Star type position player – I like DBrown, but honestly don’t think he’s that player either. I have to wonder if there’s any chance of this team having anything more than a mediocre offense for the next several seasons. And to think that their offense isn’t even the biggest concern right now – scary.
Definitely add Dugan. Let’s hope that Joseph puts his name back in the hat next season. If you are looking at say a 6 year core, which is when Brown is likely entering serious downgrade, then you also have Ruf at the front-end of that core and Knapp, Quinn and Crawford and Tocci at the back end. Maybe Pullin, Knapp, Tromp, Pujols, Sweeney. Maybe some others from short season. Shortly after that you pick up the rest of the young kids now in the system.
Taking this in the spirit which you intend – i.e., that these are guys who COULD end up being part of the core, not necessarily WILL BE – let me add a couple possibilites that you didn’t mention (as long as we are looking out 6 years).
The team rightfully took a HS kid in the first round this year. But, going forward, depending upon a number of factors, I could see the team picking a college, and, as we know, when they are serious prospects they move very quickly.It would not surprise me in the least of the next core included some college kid not yet in the system.
And there’s the scrap heap as well. Again, not telling you anything you don’t know.
It’s a numbers game. Some (certainly less than half) will make it for a cup of coffee and some won’t. The big problem is we need stars, not just an age cohort that can form a group of about average MLBers who can play together. How many guys from this list can be stars? Based on their career arcs and what they’ve done so far — there’s hope for Crawford, but he’s far away, and Tromp is having a very nice year. For most of these guys, what we are hoping for is that they can be merely average major leaguers. Some could burst forth, although they haven’t shown star yet: Franco could keep getting better, Quinn could develop a little power so that he is more than just a fleet runner, same for Tocci (these are both guys who need a little more power simply to realize the hit tool).
Yeah, a primo college bat would help. You can seldom get those later than mid-first round. Utley a bit of an exception, as is Howard. In next year’s draft, we should be positioned so that a college pick is a possibility. That would automatically add someone who could progress fast enough to be part of a new core, possibly even a star if we are lucky in who falls to us and our scouts do the job. Really, we got Utley only because so many other teams whiffed. You need that, as well as good scouting, if you want a star college bat and aren’t picking in the first roughly half dozen slots. I doubt we pick quite that low next year.
And just to be clear, I’m not dumping on anyone in this post – least of all Steve for his Dugan comment, because it’s clear from the rest of his comment that he recognizes the problem with this core.
I’m rooting for Dugan, as I root for almost all of these guys. But he has a steep hill to climb.
But maybe this is where I’m actually MORE optimistic than some people. I think there ARE possible ways out of this trap. with everything negative people have said about the current FA market, myself included, in a year or two this team SHOULD have money to burn on a couple big FA signings., As much as player development is more important than ever, I certainly could see a Phillies’ line up with, say, 4 of these guys, plus Joseph maybe, plus a cheap FA (or Ruf, who knows), maybe a “Scap heap” type pick up, and a big FA sign (or two?) being good enough to contend if the pitching staff is better than average which it could be.
Now isn’t the time for a big FA sign, but maybe in a couple years, if the team seems to be one or two players away from contending, the team will be in a position to make a big FA splash.
I also wonder just how fast Crawford can rocket through the system if everything breaks right for him. Could he be in the majors by 2016? Probably not, but I wouldn’t rule it out. He would be 21, that’s a pretty typical debut age for the best prospects.
This really gets to why I think it’s a problem to overrate your prospects. Root for them, cheer for them, when merited look forward to their eventual promotion to the majors – but keep it real.
That preface out of the way, if that’s their core, they are in pretty bad shape. Now, in fairness, you do put question marks next to the two most questionable of that group. And some of those guys are very good prospects, and even the marginal ones COULD make it. The problem isn’t so much with any one in particular, but the group as a whole. That’s just a very weak hitting lineup. The big problem is that every one of them is probably going to put up a below average OBP. More on that below.
Of course you have the positional duplication of Asche and Franco. The solutions to that (aside from eventually trading one of them) are either unrealistic (Asche to second base), or would significantly reduce the value of whichever player was moved off third.
Revere has a place there, but as a hitter he’ll never be all that good. His value is in his speed, and, notwithstanding this season’s performance, defense. But that’s why Hernadez and Galvis, even aside from questions about whether they are really going to be major league regulars at all, are problematic. Hernandez plus Galvis plus Revere is three weak hitting players in the lineup. Given that catchers as a group tend to be below average hitters, that’s putting a ton of pressure on your four corner position players. Brown is already a good hitter, and Franco I think will be too, but both, as hitters, are not likely going to be SO good they can carry a whole team. Dugan, added by Steve, is a guy whose upside is probably a slightly above average hitter.
There’s obviously a portion of this board who places a lowish value on BB. I prefer generally to talk about getting on base rather than BBs when possible. So let’s set aside the fact that every one of these guys projects to have a below average BB rate (or maybe in some cases average at best). But as a group, they aren’t going to make up for that with a terribly high BA. The only one among them who has plus contact skills is Revere. As a group, this lineup would have the worst OBP in the league. Of course you would add a first baseman and a catcher, but, even setting aside the fact that catchers aren’t generally high OBP guys (there are exceptions of course), that’s not going to bring this group up to an even decent OBP.
Some would accuse me of being pessimistic, but I think the opposite is true. I don’t want to settle for mediocrity, and that core is just that. Not saying that some of these guys can’t be part of the core. I’d say Franco, Brown, Revere are the three guys you build around. If one of the others takes a big step forward, then maybe. Beyond that, you hope that the young kids develop (and maybe you fill one of those holes in a trade for Asche if he has a good rookie season). Setting aside Asche, who I like but who plays the same position as Franco, the only current Phillie above A ball who I think has a decent chance to be part of the next core is Joseph. And his chances are hanging by a thread.
On the positional duplication issue, the lineup game we’re playing here puts in bold relief the problem with moving Franco to first. If one assumes a Franco move to first, then the guys listed (I’m including Dugan) form a complete team except for catcher. And the weakness of the lineup comes into bold relief if it’s those 7 guys and a catcher.
I don’t think you are being too pessimistic. One can sketch out solutions from the farm and trade/FA/scrap heap to get some solid major leaguers, but in looking at the Phillies list of prospects, the obvious question that springs to mind is “but where are the stars?” There isn’t anyone there that looks like an Utley, Howard, or Ruiz in their prime. Crawford could be Rollins if things break well. The pitching is very light. I don’t see a Halladay, Lee, Hamels, or Lidge/Pettibone when they were good in the list. Lots of Kendricks. Lots of guys who can aspire to be successful middle relievers. Biddle can be better than Kendrick, but I don’t see a guy who can replace Halladay/Lee/Hamels. I think you can build a successful team with all your regulars being simply solid, average to slightly above or below, major leaguers. But it is sure easier to succeed if you can add a few stars to the mix.
Anyway you slice it, this thing is going to take a while.
I think Crawford COULD be more than Rollins, Rollins with better on base skills (though somewhat less speed). Not saying he WILL be, he probably won’t, but he could be.
I don’t know, maybe I’m looking at him through rose colored glasses, but he’s a guy who really could be a plus player pretty much across the board.
I agree that Crawford can have better OBP than Rollins, but OBP has always been Rollins Achilles heal, and the reason he’s been a less than ideal leadoff hitter. What made Rollins in his prime really special, in addition to the defense and base running which Crawford might well match, was his power. Crawford could match that as well, but it seems a stretch to halfway expect that. I’m also a bit skeptical that Crawford’s defense and base stealing are going to match Rollins in his prime. Crawford is just to young to narrow the arrow bars in the estimate. He certainly has the pedigree and has put up the numbers thus far, but there is ample reason not to put too much faith into GCL numbers.
I have to admit that I’m becoming more receptive to the idea of trading Lee this winter provided we obtain a middle of the order type prospect as a result, e.g. Myers. For me, this is something of an about-face from the position I held only a month or so ago. Given that things have gone from bad to worse this season, I’m conceding that this team will not compete for a playoff birth next season either. The outlook is even worse for 2015. I’m a huge Cliff Lee fan, but we can’t continue to take the position that all Phan favorites should retire as Phillies, and Lee’s trade value only decreases after the winter.
If I put on my rose-colored glasses and work under the assumption that a good part of the roster will either rebound or produce career seasons next year, then we certainly can make the playoffs or even win the division. But as Phans we should be realistic and accept the likelihood that this team is destined for mediocrity or worse if we don’t make changes which serve to look beyond 2014. The players named above are merely complimentary players, not players who can carry a team for weeks on end.
There are certainly other guys there who can be as good as Revere. That is damning with faint praise. Revere doesn’t look to me like a guy who is likely to develop to better than major league average in CF. Like teams, players have ups and downs over the course of a season. It is tempting to take the up swing and assume it to be real, but that is seldom true. If this was Revere’s first year in the bigs, I’d be likelier to buy into the theory that what he was doing shortly before injury was the real, on-going Revere. Since Revere had 1000 major league AB prior to 2013, until proven wrong, I’m going to assume that the real Revere is the average we’ve seen for all of 2013, and that is an OPS below .700, not great CF D, and a running game which is a plus, but not a dramatic plus. This year has been his best, in terms of OPS, so perhaps he is a flat .700 OPS guy in our ballpark. His OBP has pretty much leveled out at just about .340, with remarkably little fluctuation year-to-year over 2 seasons. For his type of hitter, that’s not quite enough. That’s about where Rollins was in his prime, without as many stolen bases at as high an efficiency and a lot less power. Just not enough to be a superior lead off hitter. And, as you said, the D needs to be better than it has been this season.
and whatever alec says, he knows it all,
Good one roccom, did you think of that all by yourself?
No i thought to myself, what would that know it all alec say, and thats what i came up with,
The last thing we need right now is another extended discussion on BB rates, but I thought that this little nugget was interesting. Phillies major league team rankings for 2013:
Not where you would want them to be, but … average. But runs:
Hmm, why so much lower? Hmm, maybe they aren’t hitting int he clutch?
BA with RISP: 18th
ISO with RISP: 17th
Nope, not that. No worse than their overall relative performance.
Ah, could it be:
The Phillies’ offense this season is roughly average, except for BB%. And that, folks, is the difference between an average number of runs scored (457) and their actual number of runs scored (412). Another way to look at it: 58 fewer BB than average (323-265) leads to 45 fewer runs. Which, using linear weights, is just about what you would predict.
(Okay, I over simplify a little, but not by much. Linear weights actually predicts “only” 42 fewer runs. So you can say that the low BB rate “only” explains about 93% of the below average run total.)
If I recall correctly the Philies went three consecutive games earlier this season where they failed to draw a single walk. I’m not sure everyone comprehends how ridiculous that is. It’s honestly a difficult feat to accomplish even if you set out as a team to do so
Interesting statistics on BB. I have to agree with you..
i was listening to Rob Ellis of WIP the other day.
Ruf’s name comes up. He says he has a good OBP and draws walks, but he needs to power it more, after all he is in the 3-4-5 area hole and a walk is not what is needed there.
So my question ….at what positions in the lineup…1 through 8…do BBs serve to be more beneficial then others?
Is there any studies that show that?
I know there have been studies, though I don’t have time to look for links at the moment. I know that they show that the differential based on lineup position is minimal. Not non existent, but small enough to not be worth considering. And that’s the DIRECT effect, i.e., not taking into account the fact that a patient hitter is getting more decent pitches to hit.
Here’s where I will abandon my recent attempt to be less arrogant, on an issue where the evidence is crystal clear: you’re obviously paraphrasing Ellis, but if he suggested for even a moment that Ruf should be talking fewer walks, he is an idiot who knows less than nothing about the game.
For the most part. And I may be off base on this assumption. However, I believe the 1, 2, 7, and 8 hole hitters need to draw a higher percentage of BBs, then the 3-4-5-6 players, for obvious reasons. But that is in the traditional baseball sense of logic. The ‘table-setters’ at the top and the ‘turn-the-lineup-over’ guys at the bottom.
But what I was hoping for was some definitive stats that would show something along those lines suppporting that or not supporting it..
And as for the radio guys, some are just more in tuned with the metrics of baseball more then others. And they have to keep it fairly simple to their baseball listening audience.
Romus, I hope that I can answer your call for specific studies later. For now, I’ve already wasted my morning on this site and have things to do.
One thing I can say as a preview is to endorse allentown’s comment about lineup design studies. The biggest take away from those studies is that lineup construction doesn’t end up mattering much. To the extent that that is true, it undercuts any argument that BBs are significantly more important for 1, 2, 7 and 8 than 3-4-5-6.
That’s the biggest takeaway, and the one I am most sure about. Less important, and one where my memory may be playing tricks on me, is that conventional notions of lineup construction (i.e.,the assumptions that you are making about relative importance of BBs) are wrong.
This is a bit of a cop out, but the best I can do before I sign off for a few hours. Simply googling “baseball lineup studies” gets you a decent list that, upon an hour’s review, should convince you that, at least, it doesn’t matter a whole heck of a lot, and that, to the extent that it does, the most important key to maximizing runs is getting your best hitters (overall, regardless of OBP versus SLG) in the 1, 2 and 4 slot.
Thanks for that info.
What I trully believe is ellis was saying he should not walk as much, because he is one of the only power hitters in that lineup, Its his opinion, on a team that lacks hitters, i guess sometimes you need to try to supply the power, I would rather take a walk then swing at bad pitches, but ellis maybe was suggestion, that he should try to hit more homeruns on this bad team. Its like do you give the eight hole hitter the green light with a 3-0 count and 2 outs with a bad hitting pitcher coming up? or take the walk and hope for a miracle hit from your pitcher. I Didnt hear the show but thats the only thing that i could get out of it, after ruf bats you have young who is slop, mayberry or nix two more slop hitters, and drugless ruiz, not much hope to get a hit there,
If that is what he is saying, then he is dead wrong. I know a lot of people believe that, but it isn’t true. It might be true if he had four pitchers hitting behind him (even then, only maybe true), but he doesn’t. Mainly because even those 4 guys are much, much better hitters than pitchers. “Not much hope to get a hit there,” even with those 4 guys, is simply not true.
I am only guessing what he was trying to say,but my frustration with the hitters on this team, just makes me wonder what the hell, did ruben do to this team, And montgomery and the owners are only fooling themselfs if they believe he can fix the problem,. he has shown no ability imo to do that, based on the bullpen and reserves he has brought onto this team,.
But as I think I demonstrated below (above? I lose track) the biggest single problem with “what the hell [Amaro} did to this team,” at least in terms of hitting, was to get a bunch of guys who don’t walk. Having one of the few guys who do, do so less often, would not solve that problem.
Okay, okay, this is really it. See you guys in a few hours.
I think the studies will say more walks are important everywhere in the lineup, because the studies say OBP is a better metric than BA, regardless of where a player hits in the lineup. Getting more guys on base is important. Not making outs is important. Making the opposing pitcher throw more pitches is important. Getting the defense back on their heels as the pitcher throws more and more pitches is important. Since walks do all of that, walks are important for any hitter. Walks are also a self-protection for any hitter. Show to the pitcher that he has little chance to walk you and he has little reason to focus on throwing you strikes. Since the pitchers pitches will wander some statistically from his aim point, move that aim point from a solid strike to just outside the strike zone and the hitter is far less likely to see a fat mistake pitch to hit. The mistake that is fat if the pitcher has to focus on keeping the ball in the strike zone is just an ok strike if the pitcher has decided he doesn’t need to even throw an actual strike to you, just something that isn’t too obviously a ball.
If you press me, walks are most important to the leadoff hitter, but the studies also show that lineup construction is a lot less important factor in run production that we intuitively think it is. I think you should file this with all the other absurd things said on WIP. It comes down to ‘only real men can bat in the 3, 4, 5 hole and real men don’t take a walk and leave the rbi responsibility up to the next guy’. They pilloried Abreu with that charge for years. Do yourself a big, big favor and just turn off WIP and keep it off.
I don’t wish to oversimplify the intent of the exercise, but it would stand to reason (at least my own) that BBs would be most beneficial out of the lead-off spot. A number of reasons for this. For the balance of the order it becomes less obvious as to which would benefit more though I would contend that if you add-in the 9-hole and restrict it to NL only teams, then 9 becomes a contended for the top-3
Interesting question though I’m not sure ‘beneficial’ is the right word. Perhaps ‘valuable’? Though I guess some may contend that ‘beneficial’ and ‘valuable’ are the same particularly in the context of the above question
Steve Tampa….I think what you are saying is the traditional thought process that many of the older baseball guys go by. At least IMO.
No, no, no, no. I’m insulted Romus (and I say that playfully with a smile).
It’s a good question, an interesting one. And I hate to dilute or take off topic, but . . . .
Any study that has been done on the subject can only quantify ‘the best we can’ but cannot quantify ‘absolutely’. The formula required to bring us to an absolute answer is outlandishly complicated. Consider the variables.
This being said and even if you do not agree with my above, I stated that the first position in the batting order is the most ‘beneficial’ for a number of reasons. But let’s consider only one. If we measure the benefit of BBs in a given position in the lineup then we must include the alternative to BBs as part of our analysis. We could then consider that once per game, per team, a player leads off the game. This is a constant for every game every played in major league history. The lead off hitter, the player in the 1-spot of your lineup, can reach first base without further advancement in a number of ways, e.g. Single, Error, BB, HBP, catcher’s interference, whatever. It is only during this 1-spot in the order for the first AB for each team of each game that it is absolute that the bases would be empty. In this single instance, it is no more beneficial that the lead off hitter get a single than it is a BB when leading off the game and this cannot be said for any of the remaining ABs for a team for the remainder of the game (let alone ABs coming from other positions in the batting order). A BB is therefore equally valuable to a single (and other alternatives) only in this single instance for each team of each game. We’re essentially devaluing BBs in subsequent ABs as most ‘good’ alternative outcomes are inherently more valuable than a BB, unlike what I described above for the first AB of the game.
Somewhat distracted here so please feel free to blow holes in this.
Thanks a-town for the input.
One thing comes to mind. Remember the manager, a few years ago, who walked Barry Bonds everytime he came to bat to keep him from swinging the bat?
A strategy that some thought was odd, but understandable since Bonds was setting the single season HR record at the time..
A few thoughts about Ruf:
(1) His K rate has been falling, which is nice. It’s still too high, 30%, but now we’re in the realm here he could have a career even if he doesn’t get it lower (you would still like to see him get it lower).
(2) His BB rate is an impressive 13%. Last season’s BB rate was disappointing; this is quite a good sign. His plate discipline metrics have improved as well.
(3) His power has certainly been there.
(4) The BA WILL drop. Current BABIP is .425.
(5) Defense, I admit not trusting my subjective impressions, and where I live I don’t get to see the team every day. What are people’s impressions? The metrics (BIG SS caution) actually show him surprisingly decent in the OF, but below average at 1B. I don’t really put much weight on that, but thought I would throw it out there.
Overall – much still rides on the defense (if you see him as a left fielder), and I am still a skeptic. But as a hitter, again with SSS caveats, even regressing the BABIP to a still well above average .330, you have a guy who could put up a .266/.354/.541 line (if he otherwise performs as well as he has.- I used his total ML stats, except I regressed the BABIP and I figured a K rate much closer to this season’s rate than his career total). That’s darn good.
I’m not predicting the above line. But I will say this – maybe all of us, in our various discussions about the team’s near future, are overly discounting the possibility that Ruf is a big part of the solution to the team’s hitting woes.
As I’ve said in the past, despite my stat oriented disposition, I am not a big WAR guy. But his overall performance per fWAR so far (last season included) projects out to 5.4 for a full season.
Do I see him doing that? Heck no. But if he does HALF that he will be an above average regular.
I think you have his defense reversed. He’s better at 1B and below average in the OF. He’s not a defensive whiz and not a guy who is going to thrive flopping from position to position.
I agree with that. I recall reports from prior years referring to him as more than just an adequate defensive first baseman. DBrown should be back next week and it the real world this event should signal the end of DYoung’s time with the Phils with DBrown assuming RF. Not to accommodate Ruf, but I would contend that RF is where DBrown profiles best anyway
If Ruf was at 1B on Thursday against the Giants I bet we would have won the game. Michael Young seems to be a butcher defensively no matter where you play him except the DH.
I hear you Philabalt – but RHoward is a reality and I’m not sure how much sense it makes to put Ruf at first aside from the occasional start; and even then, what do you do with MYoung?
I would still start him at 1B still because Ruf’s future with the Phillies is in LF whether we like it or not. Young could also play 3B against tough LH pitchers for Asche and use Ruf as a defensive replacement at 1B and put another LF in for Ruf. Ideally, I would move Utley to 1B,bring up Cesar Hernandez for 2B when he is healthy enou