In the prospect cycle, being eligible for the Rule V draft and necessitating a 40 man roster spot is a big point. A good season earning you a spot on the 40 man can really jump your value (Zach Collier) and a bad season can leave you behind those who do have a roster spot. Here are the guys who will need a 40 man spot at the end of the year and where they project to play (just a reminder anyone signed/drafted under age 19 has a 2009 cut off otherwise it is 2010). This is less about predicting who is a lock for a spot but highlighting the guys who need to have big years in 2013, this is only those that will be newly eligible, see the December discussions on last years eligible prospects. (predicted opening day team in the parenthesis)
C – Tommy Joseph (Lehigh Valley)
C – Cameron Rupp (Reading)
1B/RF – Kelly Dugan (Clearwater)
CF – Aaron Altherr (Clearwater)
RHP – Brody Colvin (Reading)
RHP – Perci Garner (Reading)
CF – Guantlett Eldemire (Clearwater)
RHP -David Buchannan (Reading)
CF – Kyrell Hudson (Clearwater)
RHP – Tyler Knigge (Reading)
1B – Christopher Duffy (Reading)
LHP – Ethan Stewart (Clearwater)
RHP – Seth Rosin (Reading)
LHP – Lino Martinez (Clearwater)
LHP – Ervis Manzanillo (Lakewood)
This is not a list devoid of talent. The first five names will generate a ton of discussion but a pitcher like Knigge could force his way onto the roster. At the bottom of the list there is Rosin who the Phillies may try as a starter but certainly has a live arm and three left handed starters all of which have intriguing upside. This list does not take into account Cody Asche, Adam Morgan, Austin Wright, and Jesse Biddle all of who could force decisions before their deadlines. It will be an interesting year as players have to prove themselves to secure a spot on the roster going forward
Out of that group, I think they’ll protect Joseph, Rupp, Colvin, Garner, Ethan Stewart and Knigge. Buchanan will need to have a healthy year to make it. Altherr, Dugan, Eldemire and Hudson will have to have big years, to make it. Altherr being the most likely protected of the Outfielders.
I think Dugan is close to a definite, and Garner is the one who needs a big year to be protected. Unless Colvin makes a 180′ turnaround, I don’t think that there’s any way that he’s protected.
I get the feeling Altherr and Dugan will become the next James and Castro: OF’s that some around here love and are afraid of losing but the rest of the baseball looks at and goes “meh.”
You are probably correct. Especially on Dugan. He will have to hit a ton to force his way on to the 40 man roster. When was the last time any team selected a High A, 1B/OF, in the rule 5 draft? There is no room on a 25 man mlb roster for that kind of player.
If I had to decide today Joseph and Rupp are no brainers, I would probably go Dugan, Knigge and Rosin. Altherr is the better athlete but he can’t hit. I’d be surprised if Rosin wasn’t in AAA before the season ends.
Agree that Joseph and Rupp get protected, basically no matter what. The others on the list will have to earn their way onto the 40-man. I see Dugan, Altherr, Colvin, and Rosin as the likeliest to earn their way onto the protected list.
I’d protect Colvin too. I know he’s been a colossal disappointment to this point, but there’s still too much potential there to let go for nothing.
I said earn his way onto the 40-man, because he has two consecutive poor seasons going into 2013. If he puts up another poor year, he is really looking like one of the many good arms that just never have enough command to make it. I wouldn’t want to lose him, but there likely will be other guys more worthy of consideration if Colvin can’t up his game in 2013.
Do you think that someone would actually select Colvin and therefore be forced to put him on their MLB roster for the entire season? He can’t even get out A+ hitters.
Out of a bullpen, absolutely. If someone is willing to hide Lendy Castillo on a roster for a year they would be willing to do that with Colvin. As many have pointed out, his underlying numbers weren’t that much worst than Wright in Clearwater. He can get batters out, the problem is that everything periodically falls apart.
Ok. Well let’s hope he actually shows up this year and makes Ruben’s decision for him.
The best thing about this is that decisions don’t have to be made until after this year. I know everybody likes to speculate but the coming season will be the biggest piece of info used to evaluate these guys.
Garner, Eldemire, Buchannan, Hudson, Knigge, Stewart and Duffy are the guys that I think are most on the outside looking in. But a big year will change that and a few of them seem capable of having something click for them.
Due to injury and poor play, it doesn’t seem like Garner, Hudson, Eldemire, and Stewart have had significant development since the day they were drafted. They would have to have fantastic years to be protected. Eldemire has been a missing man and as a college draftee, he is very old for his level. He’s 24-years old and all he has to show for it are a little over 200 AB at Lakewood, producing a sub-.700 OPS. He walks well, but has little power and Ks better than 1 in 4 AB against kids a lot younger than himself. I’m not sure how much he even figures in Phillies plans for this season.
The order presented in the post does seem like a reasonable ranking of likelihood for protection.
Regardless of his season I cannot see how Joseph is not protected.
All the others do depend on their season and health.
Rupp seems quite likely since he would possibly be major league ready.
Dugan would need some serious power to be protected. He is at low level and low value position.
Altherr could be more likely since he plays CF and might survive on a Major League club but his bat would certainly need to approve.
If Colvin is converted to a reliever his decision might be based on AFL stint.
Any of the other guys would need to have a special season to gain consideration.