Reader Top 30 #27 – Kelly Dugan

Cameron Rupp and Kelly Dugan ended in a complete tie so here is your run-off for #26

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

25 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #27 – Kelly Dugan

  1. A.) Catcher with strong defensive skills and decent pop;
    B.) Fringe corner OF/1B with little defensive value and decent pop.

    I’ll take A.

    1. Agreed. And “B” looked good last year mainly because of a .391 BABIP. Plus he struck out in 25% of his ABs. No thank you. I will take A every day of the week.

  2. I went with Rupp. The reports on him are great. He plays a key defensive position and I like his plate discipline and the fact that he appears to be growing as a hitter. As for coming on with the bat late, I worry much, much less about that with catchers than other players. Catchers are famous for developing late as hitters (I think there are several reasons for this, not the least of which is that catchers have a lot of other important things to work on in addition to hitting). It is also important to keep in mind that hitting statistics at Clearwater mean something because that league is tough on hitters – it is the norm for hitters to do better at Reading than Clearwater. I am not down on Dugan particularly, I’m just not as high on him as I am on Rupp, who I am fairly confident will end up as a good back-up catcher at worst, and a decent regular at best.

  3. I’m not thrilled about Rupp’s big league prospects, but I think he at least has a decent chance of getting there. I think Dugan at this point is going to have to stay healthy, put together another couple seasons like last year’s, and stick in RF in order to make it, and I don’t think any of those three things is certain, or even particularly likely. But I do think Dugan has a great potential to evolve into the next Rizzotti/Overbeck/Ruf, putting up decent enough offensive numbers to become the Great White Hope of a segment of the fan base. Of course, Ruf proves you can hit your way out of that role, but he seems like the exception who still may prove the rule.

    1. Well, one thing that Dugan has in his favor is that he is far more athletic than Rizzotti, Overbeck and Ruf. That’s not a small advantage, but he’s fighting a battle with the calendar. He needs to break out this year or time may run out on him. He’ll be up against it because it’s not easy to hit in the Florida State League.

  4. I understand alot of your points with regard to Rupp. What i dont understand is the sentiment that Dugan will be relagated to 1B in the future and that he cannot be an good RF. What people fail to remember is that last year dugan played 1b because he was recovering from an ankle injury and the coach wanted his bat in the lineup while he was. When healthy and given a chance Dugan has shown that he can play a more than adequate corner outfield. The question comes with his bat. In the back end of the top 30, i take the guy who has more upside in both power and average even if his floor isnt as high. Dugan might be a longer shot, but i think he has much more potential.

  5. Not to denigrate Dugan who just might put himself in better prospect condition by having a good ’13, but there remains his too many Ks to be conquered. Worth watching.

    Rupp plays one of the most demanding positions on the diamond and is said to be our best defensive prospect catcher. Concerns about his offense are being overcome by increasing success there; having a play coming on, i.e., getting better as play continues, is a very good sign. Think of prospects whose rise in the system brings out more concerns; here, the opposite is true.

    IMO, Rupp should have been listed no later than #12 in these circumstances. C’est la vie.

      1. I don’t mean to jump on Art, (a) we have a truce,and (b) he is usually (not always) pretty polite, but the only way to make sense of Rupp at #12 is if you think that age/level doesn’t matter AT ALL. Yes, some catchers mature a little late, but that doesn’t mean you just throw age/level out the window. But IF you assume that Rupp was age appropriate for A+ last year, then #12 would not be unreasonable. But age appropriate for a real prospect in A+ (not an average player in A+) is probably 3 years younger than Rupp.

        That said, I voted for Rupp here. Honestly at this stage of the voting, there are many, many apples to oranges comps, and I think at least a couple of the remaining people on the list should be above Rupp, but he wins a one on one batter with Dugan, and certainly there is a case for him here versus anyone remaining.

        1. I’m interested in who you have remaining on your list, that you think could have gone before Rupp or Dugan.

          1. I haven’t done a full list. The only guy I would for sure put before Rupp is Lino. Other than that, maybe one or two others, maybe not. It’s really hard to weigh (for example) a guy like Pujols who is YEARS away, but with likely a pretty high upside, versus a guy like Rupp. I really don’t know, that’s one reason I don’t have a full list. Apples and orange. At least with Lino and Rupp it’s apples versus apples.

            Dugan I just don’t quite buy as a real prospect at this point, though I could be wrong. (To be clear, is is more than org filler, but would need to make a dramatic leap IMO to be a serious prospect).

            1. Of course I agree with Gabriel Lino over Rupp, as I’ve mentioned before. I have Rupp over Dugan for similar reasons that you’ve stated. Not much progress for Dugan in 4 years as a pro. I’d think a future major leaguer could get past low A in less than 4 seasons.
              I have Pujols and Grullon ahead of Rupp and Dugan, but understand why others would not feel that way.

            2. To be fair, Dugan is coming off of his first injury free season and isn’t incredibly old for his level. A good year and a mid-season call up to Reading and he’s back where he should be. Not a top prospect but someone to look at, especially if he turns some doubles into HR’s and can stick in RF.

            3. A good year in High A, and a successful mid-season call-up performance in Reading, and you would be right. He would be right where he should.
              If he does all of that, then he played himself into prospect status. He hasn’t done any of that. So I can’t give him credit, in advance, for being able to move 2 levels in one (1) season, when it has taken him four (4) seasons to move 3 levels.

            4. Even though Lino is 3 years AHEAD of Grullon and Pujols, he is still YEARS away from the Majors.
              I guess I have a problem ranking guys who have poor production, regardless of age. I understand that age matters, and I suppose if I ignore production for young guys (because I should not expect them produce, like Galvis for years) and focus only on scouting reports then I can rank them higher.
              Without any good production (I think Lino did have a limited good 100PAs in 2011 though) it is difficult for me to project that they will EVER be good. For this reason I think younger players are ranked as if they can do no wrong, because if they stink it is because they are young.
              All that said Lino did better with K/BB rate with the Phillies and has nice scouting reports, so I certainly moved him up in my rankings from where I had him ending the year.

            5. Lino performed the same as Rupp in the SAL. Rupp is one (1) level ahead of Lino. How is Lino soo far away, but Rupp is assuredly a Major League backup?

  6. Been voting for Rupp for weeks now!
    At least he will make the Top30 which I think is deserving.
    Most prospects rise and fall in AA. Reading should be good for him as a hitters park. We will see how he handles the pitchers as well.

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