Reader Top 30 #26 – Cameron Rupp

Last week of the Top 30.

List so far:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle
  16. De Fratus
  17. Collier
  18. Wright
  19. Cozens
  20. Hernandez
  21. Gueller
  22. Walding
  23. Pullin
  24. Giles
  25. Colvin

Here is the compiled spreadsheet of all rankings out so far https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc

45 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #26 – Cameron Rupp

  1. Dugan. Maybe this season he builds on his good health and power to actually stick in the corners and be a real prospect…… maybe……

  2. Going Lino here than Zach Green.

    I’m actually curious why Zach Green is getting very little attention. I know there are questions on whether he sticks at SS or 3B but he put up very similar numbers as Cozens. More doubles but less home runs. Both struck out quite a bit. Cozens was a litte more patient. I guess it’s the power potential with Cozens but I’ve heard some scouting reports that have him eventually moving to 1B.

    Green was a 3rd rounder and one of the youngest in the GCL last year. I’m surprised he’s not getting much attention for a pretty successful first stint in professional ball.

    1. I hope to see a lot of good things from Green, and don’t put everything into rookie league stats. That said, here are my concerns from his brief stint in the GCL:

      BA: .284
      BABIP: .363
      BB/K: 4.4%/23/5%

      His power numbers were encouraging and if he sticks at 3B, he could be a find. Based on what I’ve seen and read so far, however, I’d throw him into a deal before Rupp.

      1. I like Z Green too. He was a 3rd rounder for a reason. What I’m reading is that he is almost an identical comp to Walding, except he bats right. In fact most scouts say he is the better defender snd has more power than Walding. His transition to 3rd has been better as well. I’m also not sure why this kid isn’t getting the same attention. He is young and needs more plate discipline but his pro debut was encouraging IMO

          1. Walding and Green: They each have their warts and are in many ways mirrors of each other even down to one swings left and the other swings right, Walding is a classic the results don’t match what you see, he has a pretty swing and what looks like a good approach but he struggled late in the season as he pressed when the results weren’t there. Green has a lot of power and contact in the swing but it is a bit noisy and long which will need to be worked on so he is not exploited by off-speed pitches. Both are former shortstops, Green took much better to the transition and could be a plus plus defender at third, Walding as the tools but he is still working on mastering the position (he has plenty of time). Both are average runners. They both profile has above average regulars, Green may have a bit more power and Walding a bit more hit tool, both are very good prospects.

        1. Walding’s BB rate was more than twice that of Green’s (10.6 to 4.4%) at a higher level of short season ball. Again, I like Green, but I think he has a long way to go. (Longer than Walding, based on those splits). Both are light years away, in any event.

    2. Zach Green’s numbers don’t really compare to Cozens, as already stated above. High strikeout rate. Low BB%. High BABIP. Nothing to see here yet.

    3. Jiandido Tromp is as close to Dylan Cozens as Zach Green, if you look at the numbers.

      Z Green, 3B: GCL, age 18, 4.4 BB%, 23.5 K%, .142 ISO, .363 BABIP
      J Tromp, CF: GCL, age 18, 9.0 BB%, 30.0 K%, .193 ISO, .281 BABIP
      Cozens, RF : GCL, age 18, 11.5 BB%, 24.0 K%, .186 ISO, .321 BABIP

  3. Off to Peru until the end of the month . They don’t have baseball there because the balls all. Roll way downhill.

  4. I would have voted for Brady had he been on the list. I voted for Diekman, but several other picks were defensible.

    1. That’s funny. He must have fallen off for some reason. I’m sure Matt will spot this and put him back in sometime.

  5. Dugan here. More potential that Rupp(who i have next) and I am not counting Diekman for my list due to reasons specified in other posts. Here is to hoping Dugan can stay healthy and put together a good season at CLW.

  6. I’ll take Rupp and his .770 OPS from behind the plate in high A vs. Dugan’s .857 in low A from at best a corner OF spot and most likely 1B. Not only is Rupp’s floor higher, but based on the defensive reports I’ve seen, his ceiling is likely higher as well.

    1. +1. Rupp is the choice, if it comes down to him or Dugan. Rupp, a catcher in High A, vs a 1B in Low A. Even if Dugan’s OPS in Low A somehow impresses, there is no denying Rupp has the advantage in defensive value. I can’t really envision Dugan as a major leaguer at this point. He doesn’t have the defensive value or speed to be a 4th or 5th OF, and he hasn’t shown enough bat to be a regular.

      1. Not a dig on Rupp, but he is almost 2 years older than Dugan, and played 3 years of college ball. Wheras Dugan joined the organization straight out of high school. I know he has been inconsistent and dinged up, but I think the latter part of last season shows some pretty good upside.

  7. Gabriel Lino. Then Kevin Brady.
    Lino was the Orioles #21 prospect last year. The Orioles system was rated higher than the Phillies’ system last year. Catcher thought to have great defensive tools and plus power potential.

    Offensively, Lino’s 2012 was not as bad as perceived:

    Lino hit nearly as well as Rupp in the Sally,three (3) years younger.
    He hit as well as Valle, 2 months older than Valle at same level.

    Rupp: SAL 2011,age 22,BB 8.4%,K 26.1%,ISO 102
    Lino : SAL 2012,age 19,BB 8.0%,K 25.3%,ISO 130
    Valle: SAL 2009,age 18,BB 8.9%,K 20.7%,ISO .108

  8. I’m torn on Rupp vs Lino, but went Lino. Although I like Lino’s upside, I think many are prematurely labelling Rupp a career backup. The tradeoffs on these two balance out for me but since Rupp is a Cowboys fan I went Lino.

  9. I went with Diekman. Since he’s eligible, he deserves to be on the list. And we have a pretty good idea of what he is and what he can do at the major league level. I’m not on board with Dugan at this point. I can’t see him being anything more than a fine minor league player, maybe an AAAA guy. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s what I see. At least with Rupp, Lino, Pujols, Simon, etc., we can dream of something more.

    1. At this point the only things holding him back are his age, HR power, and injuries. He’s still a very intriguing prospect in my mind.

  10. I went with Simon. Jordan seemed high on his potential and could see him in Philadelphia by the end of the year or mid-2014 as a long man. I’m not expecting a ceiling higher than the 7th inning but I could see him sticking around and providing a few years of solid and inexpensive middle relief.

  11. I went Other: Perci Garner. Given what I read about him when drafted (athlete, arm, needs to pitch more), I think his bad year is forgivable, and he can get back on track.

  12. Very surprised Jose Pujols has 12 votes and Deivi Grullon has zero. The most substantive analysis of the two players was in a list where Grullon ranked higher than Pujols by 5 spots, and The Phils saw fit to give Grullon $35k more than Pujols in signing bonus money.

    So to those voting Pujols…do you not buy Grullon’s placement ahead of Pujols or have you just heard nothing about him since last summer and Pujols was written up after instructs? Curious.

    1. When it comes to Latin American signings I put almost nothing into money spent within a tier (I care if it is under 100K, over 500k, and over 1 million as dividers) as there are so many factors. There are the positive reports on Pujols (and they are really positive at that) coupled with the fact that I am a sucker for power. I just like Pujols’ tool profile better. Also when projecting them out I would give a major league ETA (based on near-perfect development) a year ahead for Pujols because Grullon will need more time as a catcher, especially for the bat to catch up to the defense. Those are just enough to push Pujols into my personal Top 30 and Grullon as one of the last misses.

    2. I agree with you. I mentioned this last week. Grullon was rated the #15 Latin American prospect by Baseball America last year. Pujols was the #20 prospect. Makes sense that Grullon would be the higher rated Phillies’ prospect.

      1. Why? Baseball America rated Pettibone the #4 prospect in the system and we rated him #8, is there international rankings more sacred? Just for reference mlb.com had Pujols 16 and Grullon 17. If you have them one behind the other it is easy that there will be a much larger discrepancy in voting because you would always vote Pujols over Grullon.

        1. Actually I have Grullon and Pujols back-to-back on my list. I just think it is strange that Pujols is getting multiple votes, while Grullon gets none, with no tangible reason. It would seem they would get similar support.
          Regarding BA rankings: No, they are not the Gospel, but I hold them in higher regard than anything MLB.com puts together. They tend to be more sensible, IMO.

        2. Yeah, I don’t think Ben Badler and others at BA hold the exclusive rights to rank international guys. I don’t have the two far apart, but I give Grullon points for position and frankly I value BA’s opinion a bit over MLB.com, and I value a listing analysis which by its nature compares the two to a FanGraphs post that doesn’t mention Grullon at all for unknown reasons. Guy chose to write on Pujols not Grullon. Maybe he didn’t see Grullon a lot or Grullon wasn’t hitting well when he was there etc.

          Either way, I’m excited to have both guys, and I was just more curious to see if people are valuing rave reports on Pujols from instructs over a BA report that was quite high on Grullon in the summer. Your evaluation is more than just a “what have we heard on him lately” evaluation, obviously.

          1. Pujols has the name….plus some positive ink. No issue with him over Grullon. Additionally, as a catcher Grullon has a lot to learn and it will be five short years until he needs to be protected.

            That said, went w Green…

  13. Staying with Rupp as I have last few rounds. Nearing proximity and high floor. Chance of being more than a backup.

  14. Cloyd is a potential #4 starter with an admittedly low upside due to his fastball velooity. But, I love his control. Who knows, maybe he could be a right-handed Moyer?. Bob Tewksburry is the right-hander comp who comes first to my mind when I think of right-handed control pitchers. He had a 4.0 to 1.5 career K:BB ratio and a 19.1 career WAR.

    (I’m glad to be able to vote for somebody other than Colvin finally.)

    1. No offense, Ken, but I really have a hard time believing that Cloyd will ever get more than occasional cups of coffee in the major leagues unless he somehow develops an “out” pitch, like a splitter (if I were Cloyd, I’d camp outside Bruce Sutter’s house until he taught me how to throw the pitch). Right now, I view him, at best, as a swing man/5th starter, but, really, he’s a AAAA pitcher, like Drew Carpenter. There is very, very little historical precedent for such a soft tossing righty to have any sustained success in the big leagues and virtually no precedent if the pitcher does not develop at least one plus pitch. He just throws too slow. In my view, the odds of Austin Hyatt having a real big league career are quite a bit higher than Cloyd sticking. But, I admire Cloyd for his development and determination and I hope I am proven wrong.

  15. Looks like a runoff between Rupp and Dugan. I personally have Dugan ahead of Rupp but I could slot them either way.

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