Reader Top 30 #24 – Kenny Giles

Walding takes the #22 spot and Pullin the #23.

List so far:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle
  16. De Fratus
  17. Collier
  18. Wright
  19. Cozens
  20. Hernandez
  21. Gueller
  22. Walding
  23. Pullin

Here is the compiled spreadsheet of all rankings out so far https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

48 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #24 – Kenny Giles

    1. I went with Giles also as Joe Jordan’s top 10 comments are swaying me. Giles could be this years Cody Asche as he rises multiple levels in the minors.

      1. Yeah, same here. Even if the comment was hyperbole, the Farm Director saying you are one of the top ten prospects, means something. I don’t see what political gain the organization would get by over valuing Giles. For LGreene, Martin, Joseph, Colvin, Aumont or Gillies that comment wouldn’t mean much to me. For Giles, I think it is significant.

          1. For the players Law has never seen, he says he relies on the organization scources that he deems trustworthy. Says it all of the time. So Law having him in his top ten is probably consistant with what the Philles’ organizational insiders believe.

  1. Lino not in my top 30 and definitely not ahead of Rupp. he might be one day but not today. I like Giles, Dugan or Simon in this range.

  2. Colvin. I still have hope he can turn it around and he has a lot of talent. I think if they move him to the pen, he is better than Giles (who also has some control problems) with better secondary pitches

  3. I also voted for Colvin. Not sure he’s better than Giles in the pen, but I think Giles has zero chance of being a starter, (they’d be using him as one if they thought he did), while Colvin has a couple % chance to be a starter still. He had a nice stretch in 2012 where he settled down and then when he was promoted he fell apart. If he comes out of the gate in 2013 looking like he did in AA in 2012, then I think the club will pen him and bring him back as a starter again like last year and see how it goes. He’s got some rope and some time to prove he can do it. While his K Rates are soft, reports of his stuff are real, and so if he can get some control, he should strike more guys out.

    Will any of this happen…again, I doubt it, but that’s why he’s fallen so far in the rankings the last couple years. To write him off now, I think, is still a touch premature.

  4. I voted for Kelly Dugan again…and I just saw Big Daddy for the first time and he was in it so take that sabremetrics

    1. LOL, didn’t realize he was in the movie. Have to go look for him. Also, IMDB says he’s an “actress”. I wonder if his teammates know that.

      1. He must’ve been one of the kindergarten kids…I just saw is name in credits…lol…its karma that in Dennis Dugans movie that he brings up 93 world series and his son is drafted by Phils

  5. I went with Giles. He is a ways away, but so are all these guys, and he is a realistic future closer for us.

  6. I’ll go with Giles. He’s even in Keith Law’s Phils top 10 (#9), says he could be ML ready as soon as this year.

  7. Here’s the full Keith Law phils top 10:

    1. Adam Morgan, LHP (92)
    2. Jesse Biddle, LHP (95)
    3. Roman Quinn, SS
    4. Maikel Franco, 3B
    5. Tommy Joseph, C
    6. Ethan Martin, RHP
    7. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
    8. Cody Asche, 3B
    9. Kenny Giles, RHP
    10. Larry Greene, 1B

    1. Not a bad list. I think Ruf and Tocci ahead of Giles and Greene, but I basically like what he did, even though I’m also not quite as high on Morgan. I have him definitely behind Biddle and Quinn.

  8. Voted for Lino since a defensively competent young catcher will have a much longer opportunitiy to have his bat improve. Even if he never hits much he could still have a decent career as a backup.

    Almost voted for Cloyd to honor his spectacular season. Not sure where he goes from here but he was awesome last season and made me a fan.

    1. Based on your criteria, do you not like Rupp over Lino? Age vs. fairly well developed bat puts Rupp over Lino, IMO. Though I can’t imagine anyone didn’t know that already.

      1. I don’t see the argument for Rupps bat over Lino. Lino hit nearly as well as Rupp in the Sally, three (3) years younger.

        Rupp: SAL 2011, age 22, BB 8.4%, K 26.1%, ISO 102, OPS .720
        Lino : SAL 2012, age 19, BB 8.0%, K 25.3%, ISO 130, OPS .645

        1. +1

          I think the younger Lino has a chance to break out whereas Rupp seems closer to being what he will be: a backup. Also, Lino is 2 or 3 inches taller with a more athletic body, though he’s not a speedy runner. Finally, from what I’ve gathered, Lino is a better catch and throw guy.

          1. My point was if we’re assuming both to be backups, then Rupp is closer to the bigs and improved a fair amount over prior year. To VOR’s point, Rupp’s bat has developed since the SAL, where we don’t know what will happen with Lino’s. Lino strikes out a lot, which with an OK walk rate like his, seems like it could be ok. Rupp brought his K rate below 20% last year, and took walks up over 10% at the same time as hitting for considerably more power.

            The “who’d make a better bet to be a solid back-up” wasn’t really your point, though. I guess I cherry picked that as a topic of discussion. My bad.

            1. If your point is that Rupp improved and developed a lot in One (1) year, at age 23. Then it’s quite possible that Gabriel Lino can have a similar if not better improvement at age 20 or 21 or 22.
              Either way, Lino’s performance and pace thus far is the same as Rupp’s, and he is performing the levels, 3 years younger in age.

            2. This almost starts to sound like a proximity argument at the start, which is odd for me, but it’s more than that.

              Lino’s got two years before he starts burning options, so he has to get moving, yet I think he should repeat Lakewood this year to work on his bat, (likely he will not). Either way, there are a couple levels ahead of him that will challenge a guy who strikes out at a high rate, and at least in the abstract, I don’t believe all that many guys improve their strikeout rates as much as Rupp did last year, (around 7% better than 2011).

              To further compare the two, Rupp’s 2011 wOBA+ was 102, (inflated by a high BABIP), and Lino’s was in the low-mid 90s, (FirstInning.com splits the year by team and I don’t know how to calc that myself). So probably, failry similar if you account for balls in play. But then also consider Rupp’s BABIP normalizing in 2012, (even as he hit more line drives, as odd as that seems), and it further emphasizes how much he progressed from the prior year.

              Now, if Lino does the same, regardless of how Rupp does, he would easily surpass Rupp in my mind based on his age and level, (and frankly if Lino, at his age and assuming he’s in CLR in 2013, improves as much as Rupp did in 2012, he would surpass about 25 guys and look like a stud prospect). If Lino goes to CLR and improves a bit and Rupp holds steady but doesn’t excel at AA, then we’ll rehash the same argument next year and Lino would likely come out on top.

              Lino has loud tools, and has been ranked very aggressively by a couple national people this off-season for those tools and fair numbers for his age and level, but I’m obviously not sold yet.

  9. Going forward I would have the following names to fill out the list

    Colvin
    Giles – wow, lots of Giles love from Law and Joe Jordan – he really must light up the gun – must say I’m happy about this because I loved this pick from the moment they made it.
    Brady
    Rupp
    Diekman
    Gillies
    Dugan/LIno/Altherr/Hernandez/Pujols/Simon

    I think people are selling Diekman a little short even if he is a reliever and has struggled with command. His stuff is still electric, if he evolves even a little bit he could be a seriously valuable player.

      1. And it seems like he was touching 95-96 with some regularity, though I could be giving him too much credit for “some regularity”.

        Obviously getting out RHB would be a requirement if he’s going to close or set-up, but his 2012 MLB splits weren’t awful for a rookie who’d never pitched above AA. I’m not sold that he’ll be more than a LOOGY, but it’s not like he’s giving up .900 OPS vs. RHB.

        Wait, is he even still considered a rookie in 2013? Seems like he put in a lot of time in the bigs last year.

          1. I think he was on the active roster more than 45 days before Sept 1.

            “The current standard of 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club (excluding time in military service or on the disabled list) before September 1 was adopted in 1971.[1][6]“

            1. Debuted May 15 optioned July 31. Unless he was down for more than a month in the middle there, (don’t think he was), I’d say he’s over the roster time. But does BA go by rookie status/service time or by innings, I wonder. I think we’ve used BA as the standard in prior years, but I don’t know.

  10. Giles has the highest k/9 in the system if I am not mistaken at 12.3. Delvi Francisco is right behind him at 12.2. having said that Giles 1.419 WHIP will need to improve. He showed a nice 1.091 WHIP in 14 IP in CLW to go along with 15.3 K/9. If he stays there that will get it done.

    For comparison Kimbrel had 151 MiLB IP with a 1.119 WHIP and a 14.4 K/9

      1. Ha no not at all. One of the things I do is look at some of the games better players and see what their MiLB numbers were.

        is it relevant to Giles, absolutely not. Does it give some context…sure! I think its ok to look at Kimbrels numbers and say this is what an elite closer looks like in the minors is all.

    1. Lisaverto Bonilla was also right there at about 12.3 and also had an excellent WHIP. Unfortunately, he is now in TX. For comparisons sake, BA lists him as the #31 prospect for TX.

  11. Went with Colvin here. I can’t help but think if he finished the season in Clearwater last year he’d already be on this list.

    1. It was his second crack at Clearwater and it wasn’t exactly impressive either way. Colvin might come around but right now he looks pretty much like a failed prospect.

  12. I am not going to argue with the national guys on Giles. I just figured he was still wild with no breaking pitch to speak of. I still do not like that he is a reliever only, But the 100mph FB is awesome so I did rank him in my Top30. If he has actually improved then I would move him further up my list.

    Colvin still has good stuff so maybe he figures it out. He may just end up a middle reliever but Phillies should try to give him time to see if he can start. I see him as similar to May but with many more questions.

    I have questions about Dugan’s power. If he does hit 30 HR at AA (at least by next year) I’d be very happy to admit I was wrong. He still projects to be in CLW this year and maybe since it seems like he has been around forever I think he should be further advanced.

    I like Diekman since he might be a LOOGY already and could be slightly more.
    Lino is all tools so maybe I depressed him too much on poor production.

    But Rupp is my choice since I think he is lower risk and still could be an average starter.

    1. I really don’t get the comment on Dugan about should be further….most Junior Drafts in 12 played in the NYPL including some like Stewart for example alot of people here wanted to pay 1 million dollars out of HS…..so Dugan having a really good year in Lakewood seems to me further along then most College guys of the same age.

      1. Dugan is ahead of many of the college guys drafted in 2012, because most of them automatically get placed in SS just to get acclimated to pro ball. But he is 1-2 levels behind the HS guys, who are considered real prospects, that were drafted in his 2009 class.
        Examples: 2009 draftee Brody Colvin was in Reading, while Dugan was still in Lakewood. 2010 draftee Biddle was in Clearwater. Dugan is behind his class.
        The college guys that were drafted im 2012 (and are real prospects) will all get jumped to at least A+ this season and fast tracked to AA.

        1. I. Watched giles pitch a couple times this year 97-101 range… Control issues at times… Very over powering.. Good off speed stuff

  13. Reader Top 30 #24

    Kenneth Giles 26.83% (66 votes)
    Kelly Dugan 16.26% (40 votes)
    Brody Colvin 16.26% (40 votes)

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